The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
Anecdote alert My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values. My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.
Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
Their candidate this time is a 30something called Daisy Cooper who is apparently quite a high flyer in LibDem circles.
She's a good candidate for sure. But "St Albans could be the big surprise..." is something one hears in Lib Dem circles at every single election bar none.
I'm thinking of having it put on t-shirts and would suggest the conference Glee Club may want to pen a song around the theme for this year.
Perhaps the Glee Club should be re-named the Glum Club?
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .
How much did she hold it by in the previous election?
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
How have you decided to vote in the end yourself - LibDem? Just friendly interest though of course I retain a 1% hope you might relent...
Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
Lol your comment reminds me of some of the weird canvasses I have had; the woman who voted for be because I shared her husband's first name, and another because my surname was the same as her cousin's. Things YouGov will never be able to model...
Nevertheless SO should clearly vote for the LibDems. He yearns for realignment and it isn't going to come about by voting for Corbyn.
People make odd voting decisions. Way back in the day, a mate's lifelong Tory grandmother switched her vote to Labour simply because the Labour MP in the neighbouring seat replied to his letter when he was researching a school project, and the local Tory MP didn't.
I once met a voter who sincerely believed that Margaret Thatcher was a Labour PM. So much better than the Tory Major that followed. Not ill, not confused. Just wrong. Very wrong.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.
The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
The ward I represent is the one immediately north of the boundary, so I speak with some local knowledge....
Well if you ever want to drop by for coffee, Ian....
You live near Wanstead High Street? Not long ago I was in Dangan Road
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.
This is truly one of the best things about London, compared to Paris or NY. I'd add Somers Town estate just behind the Regents Park Nash terraces. Everyone drinks in the same pubs. Well, almost everyone.
Good Meeks header on the last thread - many LD held seats are not safe (and some a downright struggle to hold), they have few options for gains from Labour (and a few potential losses there too) and Scotland, their best chance, cannot make up all the difference.
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I think the economics stuff will have more of an effect here then the IRA stuff. Not much though.
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
Her performance in the last election was truly remarkable.
Nevertheless the YouGov projection arises because a significantly large number of their (self-selected) panel members in East Devon say they'll be voting for her this time. So large a proportion that it has over-ridden the other feature of YouGov's model based on the voting intentions of similar people in adjacent seats.
We have to decide whether the high level of support she has received from the c. 75 East Devon panel members represents a) a statistical fluke, or b) an electoral earthquake in the making.
I put £2 on at 8/1 just for the interest of it. But I wouldn't risk my life savings.
For her to be doing so well, though, presumably a large number would need to say that they are voting for her this time but that they did NOT last time.
Now, I appreciate that it's been known for people to lie. It's also been known for people to forget, and say they voted their "usual" way in 2015 when in fact a lot in East Devon didn't do that.
As you say, small flutter, but adds to the interest of the evening!
Passed a pair of adjoining houses today - they started the campaign with Labour posters in the downstairs window of each house, transitioned to also having Labour posters in the upstairs window of each, and now they have Labour signs in the front garden each as well.
A little excessive perhaps, but I think one is the Labour candidate's house.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.
It is the great thing about London. And also why we are relatively better about both integrating our various communities and gathering information about potential terrorists than are Paris or Brussels.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Depends if he was part of the youth vote that normally turns up.
And how old he is; my mum is 73. And which way the son is voting. Otherwise you might be on to something.....
She looked in her early 50s, well preserved in that fragile, translucent-skinned "I count every gram of food I eat .... stop looking at my wrinkly old hands" kind of way. So I'm guessing the son was part of the yoof. She sounded surprised he was voting, so I'm assuming he was going Labour as there's been sod all from the Conservatives to motivate young people.
I'm conflicted about this youth vote thing. On the one-hand I want Corbyn to get a hammering and for the Labour party to ditch him so we can get some decent opposition. I'm not a Labour supporter but I do believe in the benefits of competition.
On the other hand, I quite like the idea of a large youth turnout as I think that habit will be good for the future of our democracy (once they've grown up a bit and stopped being so dumb).
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
Her performance in the last election was truly remarkable.
Nevertheless the YouGov projection arises because a significantly large number of their (self-selected) panel members in East Devon say they'll be voting for her this time. So large a proportion that it has over-ridden the other feature of YouGov's model based on the voting intentions of similar people in adjacent seats.
We have to decide whether the high level of support she has received from the c. 75 East Devon panel members represents a) a statistical fluke, or b) an electoral earthquake in the making.
I put £2 on at 8/1 just for the interest of it. But I wouldn't risk my life savings.
For her to be doing so well, though, presumably a large number would need to say that they are voting for her this time but that they did NOT last time.
Now, I appreciate that it's been known for people to lie. It's also been known for people to forget, and say they voted their "usual" way in 2015 when in fact a lot in East Devon didn't do that.
As you say, small flutter, but adds to the interest of the evening!
A small flutter is for fun. One to watch, as you say.
But any statistician will tell you that leading amongst a sample of just 75 (especially if self-selected) isn't a one-in-a-million fluke event. Who knows how representative the 75 YouGov panellists in East Devon really are?
Thanks for undertaking this survey Jack .... very interesting. Iirc you sometimes include your forecast of the turnout - are you able to oblige on this occasion please?
Yes. I'll include a turnout projection tomorrow in the final Bedwetting Index with seat totals for all parties.
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .
I would want bigger odds than 5 - 1. She is swimming against the tide with regards to Tory vote share, and surely the panel more likely has a distorted number of supporters. My question would be if the can distort that seat, and Yougov model across other seats, are they also out?
Now the real question for the end of the campaign is this: How will everyone defend their being very wrong in their predictions.
Since I am predicting Tories by 40, if it is a large Tory majority I intend to say that in 2015 I predicted a Labour plurality and the result was Tory majority, whereas this time I predicted a majority for the tories and that did indeed happen.
If it is a hung parliament I intend to say I say that I was in general right that Labour would do pretty well, I just was out by a few points.
If it is a Labour plurality or majority I intend to disappear and never be heard from again in shame.
We know why LOLGOV are predicting Kensington and Canterbury as Lean Labour.
5/ The upshot is that the highly engaged people in low turnout demographics are massively overrepresented.
The more wealthier you are the more engaged you are. The more engaged you are, the more likely you are to do polls, therefore skewing the results from your peer group.
I dunno - do wealthy people bother to do online polls earning themselves 50p?
Annoyed May came to Norwich today, I'm on Labour at 12s in the North
Surely that's heartening evidence for you that Tory polling suggests Smith may be at risk? I can't really imagine she's there because they think they might unseat Lewis (local elections strongly suggested he'll cruise home).
Of course, she may just be there because that's where the regional media are.
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
Now the real question for the end of the campaign is this: How will everyone defend their being very wrong in their predictions.
Since I am predicting Tories by 40, if it is a large Tory majority I intend to say that in 2015 I predicted a Labour plurality and the result was Tory majority, whereas this time I predicted a majority for the tories and that did indeed happen.
If it is a hung parliament I intend to say I say that I was in general right that Labour would do pretty well, I just was out by a few points.
If it is a Labour plurality or majority I intend to disappear and never be heard from again in shame.
Just vote LibDem and then whatever happens it isn't your fault....
Annoyed May came to Norwich today, I'm on Labour at 12s in the North
Surely that's heartening evidence for you that Tory polling suggests Smith may be at risk? I can't really imagine she's there because they think they might unseat Lewis (local elections strongly suggested he'll cruise home).
Of course, she may just be there because that's where the regional media are.
Anecdote alert My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values. My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.
Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
Their candidate this time is a 30something called Daisy Cooper who is apparently quite a high flyer in LibDem circles.
She's a good candidate for sure. But "St Albans could be the big surprise..." is something one hears in Lib Dem circles at every single election bar none.
I'm thinking of having it put on t-shirts and would suggest the conference Glee Club may want to pen a song around the theme for this year.
Hahahaha - spot on. It does seem to be the Moby Dick seat for LibDems. Still, they used to say that about Republican presidential candidates and Pennsylvania...
I've been told that in 1997 there were no Tory gains to go against the flow of Labour gains. If it is a Tory landslide (which I am not predicting) do we think there are any seats atypical enough that Lab could gain against the tide?
Thanks for undertaking this survey Jack .... very interesting. Iirc you sometimes include your forecast of the turnout - are you able to oblige on this occasion please?
Yes. I'll include a turnout projection tomorrow in the final Bedwetting Index with seat totals for all parties.
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I think the economics stuff will have more of an effect here then the IRA stuff. Not much though.
If the Tories don't get a decent majority, it will be because they didn't attack the Labour magic money forest manifesto on the grounds of economic illiteracy.
Some said Trump's campaign strategy was not genius but that he simply visited states between his homes in New York and Florida. I don't know enough American geography to judge if that is true.
I am on the Warwick and Leamington CLP mailing list. I just got an email that began like this:
With just over 30 hours to go until the polls close, we stand on the brink of achieving something extraordinary here in Warwick and Leamington and possibly across the country ...
Following were door-knocking and get out the vote instructions/exhortations.
Some said Trump's campaign strategy was not genius but that he simply visited states between his homes in New York and Florida. I don't know enough American geography to judge if that is true.
Is total nonsense. One thing you can't deny about the Trump campaign is he did crazy amounts of rallies absolutely everywhere. The man was doing 5-6 a day all over the place.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I think the economics stuff will have more of an effect here then the IRA stuff. Not much though.
If the Tories don't get a decent majority, it will be because they didn't attack the Labour magic money forest manifesto on the grounds of economic illiteracy.
Aka. Kicking the so-called long-term plan to eliminate the deficit into the long-grass, and not bothering to cost their manifesto in case it reveals the necessity for unspecified rises in stealth taxes and NI?
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I think the economics stuff will have more of an effect here then the IRA stuff. Not much though.
If the Tories don't get a decent majority, it will be because they didn't attack the Labour magic money forest manifesto on the grounds of economic illiteracy.
Don't underestimate the impact of the Tories being a bit rubbish.
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago A Ladbrokes customer in London has had £1,000 on the Greens to win most seats at 1000/1. Will win £1m in the unlikely event they are right.
Warren @fatwaz 4h4 hours ago But their Max payout on politics is 250k
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 4h4 hours ago Replying to @fatwaz@WeLoveBettingUK This is a fair point, the max payouts on display are often lower than we would actually pay out, as in this case.
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
I think the 'no worse off' thing does depend on if there is a landslide or not - as it will be presumed that despite the excitement of the campaign his agenda was also a turnoff. But as vote share is expected to be up, and Labour to net lose not that many in the end, then yes, he will have proven the point that his agenda was mostly fine - I would be interested to see what someone without his baggage would do with it.
SNP 47 Lose 9: Edinburgh West, Dunbartonshire East, East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Clydesdale and Tweedsdale, Berwickshire R & S, Dumfries and Galloway, Moray
Labour 199 Gain 3: East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Leeds NW Lose 36: Barrow and Furness, Batley & Spen, Birmingham Edgbaston, Erdington and Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bolton NE, City of Chester, Chorley, Copeland, Coventry NW, Coventry South, Darlington, Derbyshire NE, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Gedling, Halifax, Hyndburn, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Mansfield, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Scunthorpe, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Wakefield, Walsall North, Wirral West, Wolverhampton SW Wolverhampton NE, Workington, Worsley and Eccles South, Wrexham
NI (18), PC (3) and Green (1) = 22
Leaves Conservative 371 (372 inc speaker) Gains and Losses should be all those not explicitly paired off above. Majority 94.
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I think the economics stuff will have more of an effect here then the IRA stuff. Not much though.
If the Tories don't get a decent majority, it will be because they didn't attack the Labour magic money forest manifesto on the grounds of economic illiteracy.
Don't underestimate the impact of the Tories being a bit rubbish.
I've just done a YouGov. One of the supplementaries was 'How naughty do you think it is to run through a wheatfield?' If TMay does it, it must be really nasty!
We know why LOLGOV are predicting Kensington and Canterbury as Lean Labour.
5/ The upshot is that the highly engaged people in low turnout demographics are massively overrepresented.
The more wealthier you are the more engaged you are. The more engaged you are, the more likely you are to do polls, therefore skewing the results from your peer group.
I dunno - do wealthy people bother to do online polls earning themselves 50p?
I do. :-)
And the really wealthy made their money by worrying about 50p...
Phone caller on radio. "I've decided, I'm voting labour" Small businessman converted. Then a trident rant
If you get swastika's put on your tory placard, you are not going to phone into a radio station. This is what we should bear in mind. Tories have to be more careful to admitting voting tory.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
r them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.
The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
The ward I represent is the one immediately north of the boundary, so I speak with some local knowledge....
Well if you ever want to drop by for coffee, Ian....
You live near Wanstead High Street? Not long ago I was in Dangan Road
Dangerously close. Drop me an email. We'll catch up after the election.
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago A Ladbrokes customer in London has had £1,000 on the Greens to win most seats at 1000/1. Will win £1m in the unlikely event they are right.
Warren @fatwaz 4h4 hours ago But their Max payout on politics is 250k
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 4h4 hours ago Replying to @fatwaz@WeLoveBettingUK This is a fair point, the max payouts on display are often lower than we would actually pay out, as in this case.
That's basically fraud on the part of the bookmakers.
If that comes off I think Shadsy will be good for the milllion. Not least because pretty much every other bet will have gone down
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .
I would want bigger odds than 5 - 1. She is swimming against the tide with regards to Tory vote share, and surely the panel more likely has a distorted number of supporters. My question would be if the can distort that seat, and Yougov model across other seats, are they also out?
Well, I suspect they are out on other seats, just on a by-eye inspection.
But the scope for distortion is, as others have intimated, greater for an independent. For party candidates, it's easier to correct by reference to neighbouring seats and across the country. If seat X is plainly doing something weird, the model draws it in to be more like seats W, Y and Z. There are no meaningful comparisons for "seats where there is a maverick independent starting from a decent second" that can be used to correct East Devon if it is indeed a weird sample.
Now the real question for the end of the campaign is this: How will everyone defend their being very wrong in their predictions.
Since I am predicting Tories by 40, if it is a large Tory majority I intend to say that in 2015 I predicted a Labour plurality and the result was Tory majority, whereas this time I predicted a majority for the tories and that did indeed happen.
If it is a hung parliament I intend to say I say that I was in general right that Labour would do pretty well, I just was out by a few points.
If it is a Labour plurality or majority I intend to disappear and never be heard from again in shame.
Just vote LibDem and then whatever happens it isn't your fault....
An attractive prospect indeed, but I find laying it all out there on PB makes me more inclined to stick to my guns - as a notorious bedwetter, I feel without having argued for Leave (albeit a softer leave than we're getting) on here, I'd have voted Remain in the end. I did take about 40 seconds in the booth to caste my vote, thinking about it.
I could vote Tory and lie later and say I voted LD, to avoid the blame from what will probably be an underwhelming government, but best not.
I am on the Warwick and Leamington CLP mailing list. I just got an email that began like this:
With just over 30 hours to go until the polls close, we stand on the brink of achieving something extraordinary here in Warwick and Leamington and possibly across the country ...
Following were door-knocking and get out the vote instructions/exhortations.
Read into it what you will!
How do you read it as somebody used to getting this kind of stuff from CLP?
Now the real question for the end of the campaign is this: How will everyone defend their being very wrong in their predictions.
Since I am predicting Tories by 40, if it is a large Tory majority I intend to say that in 2015 I predicted a Labour plurality and the result was Tory majority, whereas this time I predicted a majority for the tories and that did indeed happen.
If it is a hung parliament I intend to say I say that I was in general right that Labour would do pretty well, I just was out by a few points.
If it is a Labour plurality or majority I intend to disappear and never be heard from again in shame.
Just vote LibDem and then whatever happens it isn't your fault....
I'll use the remainer line; I got the result right, it's just the voters didn't.
Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
I agree about not giving money to the rich.
Which is why the Tories are right to means test school meals and winter fuel allowance, whereas Labour would continue to give it to rich people!
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
Claire is a spectacular campaigner.. and for whoever asked she won her county seat by an increased margin over 2013. Swire is pretty useless. However - demographically East Devon is absolutely terrible for her policy position, most voters round here would be sick if Corbyn were PM.
I reckon she could win about half the Labour seats in the country. I'd say she has about a 20 pct chance.. if there truly is an earthquake tomorrow (Lab largest party sort of thing) she will do it, otherwise not.
I am on the Warwick and Leamington CLP mailing list. I just got an email that began like this:
With just over 30 hours to go until the polls close, we stand on the brink of achieving something extraordinary here in Warwick and Leamington and possibly across the country ...
Following were door-knocking and get out the vote instructions/exhortations.
We know why LOLGOV are predicting Kensington and Canterbury as Lean Labour.
5/ The upshot is that the highly engaged people in low turnout demographics are massively overrepresented.
The more wealthier you are the more engaged you are. The more engaged you are, the more likely you are to do polls, therefore skewing the results from your peer group.
I dunno - do wealthy people bother to do online polls earning themselves 50p?
I do. :-)
And the really wealthy made their money by worrying about 50p...
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago A Ladbrokes customer in London has had £1,000 on the Greens to win most seats at 1000/1. Will win £1m in the unlikely event they are right.
Warren @fatwaz 4h4 hours ago But their Max payout on politics is 250k
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 4h4 hours ago Replying to @fatwaz@WeLoveBettingUK This is a fair point, the max payouts on display are often lower than we would actually pay out, as in this case.
That's basically fraud by ladbrokes.
Surely the greater fraud is offering 1,000-1 when the true odds must be 1,000,000-1.
SNP 47 Lose 9: Edinburgh West, Dunbartonshire East, East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Clydesdale and Tweedsdale, Berwickshire R & S, Dumfries and Galloway, Moray
Labour 199 Gain 3: East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Leeds NW Lose 36: Barrow and Furness, Batley & Spen, Birmingham Edgbaston, Erdington and Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bolton NE, City of Chester, Chorley, Copeland, Coventry NW, Coventry South, Darlington, Derbyshire NE, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Gedling, Halifax, Hyndburn, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Mansfield, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Scunthorpe, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Wakefield, Walsall North, Wirral West, Wolverhampton SW Wolverhampton NE, Workington, Worsley and Eccles South, Wrexham
NI (18), PC (3) and Green (1) = 22
Leaves Conservative 371 (372 inc speaker) Gains and Losses should be all those not explicitly paired off above. Majority 94.
Paisley and RS is 14/1 for SLAB.
The end of Mhari Black in Parliament? I think may well be worth a modest punt.
So the value in this election is about identifying possible Labour gains in the face of net losses.
I have Leeds NW @ 10-1
Any other value out there?
Bet365 have 10/1 on Lab in Broxtowe. I think this is value as Soubry will not attract the kippers.
Makes sense but I don't fancy it for some reason. I think Soubry as an ultra moderate has cross party appeal. And of course Nick isn't standing this time, so she has a weaker opponent
I'll be calling bollocks on most of the anecdotes posted here tomorrow, excepting a few from a handful of trusted and credible posters whom I know have access to campaign coordinators with solid data.
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago A Ladbrokes customer in London has had £1,000 on the Greens to win most seats at 1000/1. Will win £1m in the unlikely event they are right.
Warren @fatwaz 4h4 hours ago But their Max payout on politics is 250k
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 4h4 hours ago Replying to @fatwaz@WeLoveBettingUK This is a fair point, the max payouts on display are often lower than we would actually pay out, as in this case.
That's basically fraud on the part of the bookmakers.
If that comes off I think Shadsy will be good for the milllion. Not least because pretty much every other bet will have gone down
Ladbrokes are in 7th heaven whatever with that bet
Mr. Tyndall, whether we sit it out (Syria), take part without committing ground forces (Libya), or have a full-blown role (Iraq/Afghanistan) it'll be criticised.
Anyway, we'll have to wait and see what Iran actually does.
So the value in this election is about identifying possible Labour gains in the face of net losses.
I have Leeds NW @ 10-1
Any other value out there?
Bet365 have 10/1 on Lab in Broxtowe. I think this is value as Soubry will not attract the kippers.
Makes sense but I don't fancy it for some reason. I think Soubry as an ultra moderate has cross party appeal. And of course Nick isn't standing this time, so she has a weaker opponent
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
I think that is true and has the added benefit of the electorate being able to reject the discredited idea of socialism every few years.
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago A Ladbrokes customer in London has had £1,000 on the Greens to win most seats at 1000/1. Will win £1m in the unlikely event they are right.
Warren @fatwaz 4h4 hours ago But their Max payout on politics is 250k
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 4h4 hours ago Replying to @fatwaz@WeLoveBettingUK This is a fair point, the max payouts on display are often lower than we would actually pay out, as in this case.
That's basically fraud by ladbrokes.
Laddies are always full of the brown stuff. Most likely their news of the bet was a palpable error – actually the punter put a beery tenner on.
Comments
Now, I appreciate that it's been known for people to lie. It's also been known for people to forget, and say they voted their "usual" way in 2015 when in fact a lot in East Devon didn't do that.
As you say, small flutter, but adds to the interest of the evening!
A little excessive perhaps, but I think one is the Labour candidate's house.
I'm conflicted about this youth vote thing. On the one-hand I want Corbyn to get a hammering and for the Labour party to ditch him so we can get some decent opposition. I'm not a Labour supporter but I do believe in the benefits of competition.
On the other hand, I quite like the idea of a large youth turnout as I think that habit will be good for the future of our democracy (once they've grown up a bit and stopped being so dumb).
WillS.
But any statistician will tell you that leading amongst a sample of just 75 (especially if self-selected) isn't a one-in-a-million fluke event. Who knows how representative the 75 YouGov panellists in East Devon really are?
https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/872464833123405824
Up on 2015?
Since I am predicting Tories by 40, if it is a large Tory majority I intend to say that in 2015 I predicted a Labour plurality and the result was Tory majority, whereas this time I predicted a majority for the tories and that did indeed happen.
If it is a hung parliament I intend to say I say that I was in general right that Labour would do pretty well, I just was out by a few points.
If it is a Labour plurality or majority I intend to disappear and never be heard from again in shame.
Not sure if Croydon C and Luton S are really value.
Maybe it's asking too much to expect 'value' on the day before the vote although there was better than this in 2015.
The ~1.2 on TM=PM or Tory majority seems quite good.
A few Tory gains deep into Labour heartlands? Mansfield @ 2.2 last time I looked.
Con 378
Lab 198
LD 7
SNP 45
UKIP 0
Greens 1
PC 2
Speaker 1
NI 18
Tory majority 106
I estimate 70 seats will change hands.
Of course, she may just be there because that's where the regional media are.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/872492401344098305
Small businessman converted. Then a trident rant
With just over 30 hours to go until the polls close, we stand on the brink of achieving something extraordinary here in Warwick and Leamington and possibly across the country ...
Following were door-knocking and get out the vote instructions/exhortations.
Read into it what you will!
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago
A Ladbrokes customer in London has had £1,000 on the Greens to win most seats at 1000/1. Will win £1m in the unlikely event they are right.
Warren @fatwaz 4h4 hours ago
But their Max payout on politics is 250k
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @fatwaz @WeLoveBettingUK
This is a fair point, the max payouts on display are often lower than we would actually pay out, as in this case.
That's basically fraud by ladbrokes.
LD 10
Gain 5: Edinburgh West, Dunbartonshire East, Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
Lose 3: Carshalton and Wallington, Leeds NW, Southport
SNP 47
Lose 9: Edinburgh West, Dunbartonshire East, East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Clydesdale and Tweedsdale, Berwickshire R & S, Dumfries and Galloway, Moray
Labour 199
Gain 3: East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Leeds NW
Lose 36: Barrow and Furness, Batley & Spen, Birmingham Edgbaston, Erdington and Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bolton NE, City of Chester, Chorley, Copeland, Coventry NW, Coventry South, Darlington, Derbyshire NE, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Gedling, Halifax, Hyndburn, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Mansfield, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Scunthorpe, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Wakefield, Walsall North, Wirral West, Wolverhampton SW Wolverhampton NE, Workington, Worsley and Eccles South, Wrexham
NI (18), PC (3) and Green (1) = 22
Leaves Conservative 371 (372 inc speaker)
Gains and Losses should be all those not explicitly paired off above. Majority 94.
I'm not sure 'give me strength' comes across as a particularly inspiring message. It's like asking the people to lead her, not the other way around.
And the really wealthy made their money by worrying about 50p...
Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder where (Shi'ite or Sunni) Qatar stands.
arklebar@gmail.com
But the scope for distortion is, as others have intimated, greater for an independent. For party candidates, it's easier to correct by reference to neighbouring seats and across the country. If seat X is plainly doing something weird, the model draws it in to be more like seats W, Y and Z. There are no meaningful comparisons for "seats where there is a maverick independent starting from a decent second" that can be used to correct East Devon if it is indeed a weird sample.
I could vote Tory and lie later and say I voted LD, to avoid the blame from what will probably be an underwhelming government, but best not.
Iran to win hands down.. or cut off.
Which is why the Tories are right to means test school meals and winter fuel allowance, whereas Labour would continue to give it to rich people!
I reckon she could win about half the Labour seats in the country. I'd say she has about a 20 pct chance.. if there truly is an earthquake tomorrow (Lab largest party sort of thing) she will do it, otherwise not.
Just like Bernie Saunders.. who had the biggest most enthusiastic crowds.. and was whipped 55-45% by that failed Clinton politician..
The end of Mhari Black in Parliament? I think may well be worth a modest punt.
My forecast is similar, but not too far away.
Con 345, Lab 225, SNP 45, Lib Dem 10, Others 25 or thereabouts.
Anyway, we'll have to wait and see what Iran actually does.
Survation?
given they have called every recent UK election wrong this is probably a fill your boots on Theresa signal
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/wahl-in-grossbritannien-theresa-maybe-15050315.html
The lazy german bastards never seem to leave London which is why they are so consistently falsch
What's he been doing sending her up the chimney to clean it out?
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/872497548942073856