I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.
One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.
Con 302 (-2) Lab 269 (+3) SNP 44 (-2)
It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.
Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
They've caused reputational damage to their employer through their actions. Yes, technically they might have been legally entitled to do what they did but anyone with half a brain should be able to exercise their judgement in a case like that.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Depends if he was part of the youth vote that normally turns up.
And how old he is; my mum is 73. And which way the son is voting. Otherwise you might be on to something.....
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
I'm trusting the pensioners to have more sense than when they voted leave last time round.
Perhaps Jezz has calculated that if he goes to marginals there's more chance of hostile interventions from members of the public; safe seats, on the other hand, and he can come across as the messiah before vast and adoring crowds. It's the latter that has largely contributed to his upwards revision during this campaign, so good move.
Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?
IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
2022
So before 'The' Rangers win the SPL for the first time then?
Difficult for #55 to be the SPL as any fule noes its the SPFL now.
D- for trolling. Must do better.
A+ for biting.
Proof that the brain drain from North to south is real.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
I'm trusting the pensioners to have more sense than when they voted leave last time round.
The real damage was done to Kezia Dugdale, a round directly to the foot. The First Minister revealed that after the EU referendum Miss Dugdale confided in her that Scottish Labour might ditch its opposition to independence. The Labour leader mugged and gasped but didn’t explicitly, definitively deny the allegation. If Miss Dugdale did say it, it was rank amateurism but it also tells you something about the character of Nicola Sturgeon that she would disclose a private phone conversation on a television broadcast. Class, unlike her slinky shoes, comes cheap.
Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.
Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
TBF the Ladywood one was just outside the city centre and was reasonably accessible. OTOH, they did absolutely nothing to publicise it to the average man on New Street.
They didn't publicise the rally in Leeds Central to at least one party member in Leeds Central CLP - i.e. me! I wonder if Jezza told Hilary Benn he was coming?
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
They've caused reputational damage to their employer through their actions. Yes, technically they might have been legally entitled to do what they did but anyone with half a brain should be able to exercise their judgement in a case like that.
I hold no brief for traffic wardens but I imagine they have virtually zero discretion to refrain from ticketing a ticketable car, because if they did, it would be an invitation to bribery. So they may have been snookered either way (assuming as I do that "swooped" may be Sun speak for "went there in the normal course of duty).
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.
One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.
Con 302 (-2) Lab 269 (+3) SNP 44 (-2)
It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.
Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
Is there another ICM poll due? If memory serves they did their last EU ref poll a few days before June 23rd showing an Out lead that ended up being pretty much bang on the money.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
SNIP
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
They've caused reputational damage to their employer through their actions. Yes, technically they might have been legally entitled to do what they did but anyone with half a brain should be able to exercise their judgement in a case like that.
I hold no brief for traffic wardens but I imagine they have virtually zero discretion to refrain from ticketing a ticketable car, because if they did, it would be an invitation to bribery. So they may have been snookered either way (assuming as I do that "swooped" may be Sun speak for "went there in the normal course of duty).
It reminds of sending lorries into the B&Q at Wandsworth. If you couldn't get into site within a couple of minutes (as they were unloading an earlier delivery) you would be watched on CCTV and then a traffic warden would swoop round on a moped and ticket the truck.
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
SNIP
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
Maybe there is something to the idea that Corbyn and McDonnell are putting great store by the Labour national percentage vote and want to drive up turnout in their safe seats.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Conservatives don't talk about their voting intentions in public.
They will join in criticism of Theresa May, and then quietly vote for her anyway.
I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.
One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.
Con 302 (-2) Lab 269 (+3) SNP 44 (-2)
It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.
Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.
If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
Con 372 Lab 206 SNP 43 LD 7 Plaid 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 UKIP 0 NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
@JamieRoss7: It's notable how quickly Sturgeon has gone from ridiculing Corbyn's supposed ineptitude to trying to piggy-back on his surge in popularity.
The Labour pitch is that there will be no deal. They will propose a Queen's Speech and dare (or double dare) fellow "progressives" to vote against it "in a pact with the Toarieeees"
If we're doing forecasts, I'll stick with my 60-80 seat majority. The octo-lemur, who are not always truthful but got the referendum spot on, claim it will be 102.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
Con 380 Lab 197 SNP 45 Lib Dem 6 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 Northern Ireland 18
Con maj 110
which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge?? (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?
I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.
Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.
One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.
Con 302 (-2) Lab 269 (+3) SNP 44 (-2)
It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.
Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.
If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
Labour would U-turn on the manifesto commitment to leave the EU?
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.
One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.
Con 302 (-2) Lab 269 (+3) SNP 44 (-2)
It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.
Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.
If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
Labour would U-turn on the manifesto commitment to leave the EU?
The political earthquake that would be the Tories losing, from the commanding position they enjoyed when the election was called, would inevitably call the whole process into question. All but a handful of Labour MPs are remainers, and the exceptions are cancelled out by Tory remainers.
I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.
One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.
Con 302 (-2) Lab 269 (+3) SNP 44 (-2)
It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.
Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.
If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
Which is why there will be a small Tory to Labour swing in Remain areas outside Scotland but a big Labour to Tory swing in Leave areas in England and Wales
Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad
That's pretty much free money, given the LDs have lost share relative to the Conservatives and Labour since the last election.
I'd combine it with a bet on the LibDems holding Orkney & Shetland, which is nowhere near as marginal as the 2015 result suggests. (I would also point out that O&S is a staggeringly small constituency.) My guess is that the LDs will get more than 50% of the vote and the SNP will be sub 30%.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Yes, I will be in Ilford North tonight and knocking up the vote there before polls close tomorrow evening too
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
My first GE was 2005. I got two trains and the underground to Kent from Bath (where I was living as student) to vote Tory in one of the safest Tory seats in the country. The definition of pointless.
At that time Bath was safely Lib Dem, of course, so not registering there didn't matter.
Con 372 Lab 206 SNP 43 LD 7 Plaid 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 UKIP 0 NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West Canterbury Kensington Walsall North Warwick and Leamington Vale of Clwyd Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Peterborough Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne Oxford West and Abingdon St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
Much as I'm reticent about speaking ill of my colleagues in Halifax, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that it if Con would gain a lot of other seats in Yorkshire before Halifax. It won't happen in hung parliament territory.
Having lived there as a student I could see Labour scraping a win in Leamington through the student vote but the Tories romping home in Warwick to win the seat overall
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
My first GE was 2005. I got two trains and the underground to Kent from Bath (where I was living as student) to vote Tory in one of the safest Tory seats in the country. The definition of pointless.
At that time Bath was safely Lib Dem, of course, so not registering there didn't matter.
I salute you! You were absolutely right to do that.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him.
Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad
That's pretty much free money, given the LDs have lost share relative to the Conservatives and Labour since the last election.
I'd combine it with a bet on the LibDems holding Orkney & Shetland, which is nowhere near as marginal as the 2015 result suggests. (I would also point out that O&S is a staggeringly small constituency.) My guess is that the LDs will get more than 50% of the vote and the SNP will be sub 30%.
yeah, bet max on the sportsbook's 1.9 10-19 seats, then have 0.42 of that max on 4.5 under 10 seats on the exchange. The under 10 is prob better though so could have a bigger factor than 0.42
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
Con 380 Lab 197 SNP 45 Lib Dem 6 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 Northern Ireland 18
Con maj 110
which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge?? (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?
I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.
Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.
It's emphatically just for amusement only.
ok fair enough - thanks for your thoughts and fwiw i agree with them!
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.
The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West Canterbury Kensington Walsall North Warwick and Leamington Vale of Clwyd Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Peterborough Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne Oxford West and Abingdon St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
Canterbury will not go Labour even if it's the one seat in Kent slightly trending that way. It still had a comfortable Leave majority last year as did all of Kent apart from Royal Tunbridge Wells..
Con 372 Lab 206 SNP 43 LD 7 Plaid 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 UKIP 0 NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
That's very close to mine; 368-202-48-7. I agree about unexpected results and I will especially interested to see how the Tory vote stands up in home counties remain seats; I've got a feeling that there might be some surprisingly close results there.
Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
If we only win one seat in Scotland, this would be a good one to win.
Perhaps I could have been clearer those were just the changes in the Yougov projections compared to yesterday! The full list of SCon seats they are projecting is as follows:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfries and Galloway Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale East Renfrewshire Moray Ochil and South Perthshire Perth and North Perthshire West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
If we only win one seat in Scotland, this would be a good one to win.
Perhaps I could have been clearer those were just the changes in the Yougov projections compared to yesterday! The full list of SCon seats they are projecting is as follows:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfries and Galloway Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale East Renfrewshire Moray Ochil and South Perthshire Perth and North Perthshire West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Con 380 Lab 197 SNP 45 Lib Dem 6 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 Northern Ireland 18
Con maj 110
which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge?? (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?
I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.
Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.
It's emphatically just for amusement only.
I suspect Ceredgion is more vulnerable than it looks. The LDs need to persuade the local Tories to vote tactically to keep Plaid out.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West Canterbury Kensington Walsall North Warwick and Leamington Vale of Clwyd Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Peterborough Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne Oxford West and Abingdon St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
Kensington Labour ?
Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
Simply the flaw in YouGov's model, importing demographically similar but politically different voters into unusual seats from those surrounding. Kensington will be safe Tory, despite all of its well off remainers, and Labour will be third in Portsmouth South.
Comments
SNP to win every Scottish seat and Scotland to beat England on June 10th - 20/1
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/10978008/SNP+to+win+every+Scottish+Seat.html
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/06/07/kezia-took-a-round-right-in-the-foot/
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p1BedwyFKY
Mr. Eagles, wise choice to go on a podcast. That way, your wardrobe won't blind anyone, frighten children, or induce epileptic fits.
Our Nowcast for this morning:
Con: 353 (+23)
Lab: 219 (-13
SNP: 46 (-10)
LDem: 9 (+1)
Lab +9
Con +7
If applied across all of GB that would give C45, L40.
So do we think Lab will do better or worse than average in Wales? Or maybe in line?
(the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
Mark might well be right.
If you couldn't get into site within a couple of minutes (as they were unloading an earlier delivery) you would be watched on CCTV and then a traffic warden would swoop round on a moped and ticket the truck.
Keep calm and carry on issuing tickets.
They will join in criticism of Theresa May, and then quietly vote for her anyway.
If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
Con 372
Lab 206
SNP 43
LD 7
Plaid 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
UKIP 0
NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
The Labour pitch is that there will be no deal. They will propose a Queen's Speech and dare (or double dare) fellow "progressives" to vote against it "in a pact with the Toarieeees"
I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.
Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.
It's emphatically just for amusement only.
https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West
Canterbury
Kensington
Walsall North
Warwick and Leamington
Vale of Clwyd
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Peterborough
Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne
Oxford West and Abingdon
St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.
Erdington Tory landslide
I'd combine it with a bet on the LibDems holding Orkney & Shetland, which is nowhere near as marginal as the 2015 result suggests. (I would also point out that O&S is a staggeringly small constituency.) My guess is that the LDs will get more than 50% of the vote and the SNP will be sub 30%.
At that time Bath was safely Lib Dem, of course, so not registering there didn't matter.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Leyton+and+Wanstead
Doesn't look like it includes Stratford, no.
Shame on me for having to look that up as I used to live there too!
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
https://twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881
The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/861618823316869120?lang=en
I expect the Tories to increase the size of their majority.
(I await the pedants)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
East Renfrewshire
Moray
Ochil and South Perthshire
Perth and North Perthshire
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
McDonnell has argued for mass protests in the past in response to political decisions he doesn't like.
If I were the police, I'd be preparing for civil disorder in places like London and Manchester over the weekend.
They won't take it well.