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This has to be the worst bet of this election

SNP to win every Scottish seat and Scotland to beat England on June 10th - 20/1

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/10978008/SNP+to+win+every+Scottish+Seat.html

Alistair said:

Norm said:

Barnesian said:

Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

Con 302 (-2)
Lab 269 (+3)
SNP 44 (-2)

It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.

IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.

Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.

RobD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

Depends if he was part of the youth vote that normally turns up.

And how old he is; my mum is 73. And which way the son is voting. Otherwise you might be on to something.....

brokenwheel said:

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

Perhaps Jezz has calculated that if he goes to marginals there's more chance of hostile interventions from members of the public; safe seats, on the other hand, and he can come across as the messiah before vast and adoring crowds. It's the latter that has largely contributed to his upwards revision during this campaign, so good move.

brokenwheel said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

BannedInParis said:

meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them

Both Corbyn gains...

Thought they were both labour seats?

Think that was the joke...

Yes it was to be fair

When is the first poll due out? Hopefully it will stop the jitters...

The real damage was done to Kezia Dugdale, a round directly to the foot. The First Minister revealed that after the EU referendum Miss Dugdale confided in her that Scottish Labour might ditch its opposition to independence. The Labour leader mugged and gasped but didn’t explicitly, definitively deny the allegation. If Miss Dugdale did say it, it was rank amateurism but it also tells you something about the character of Nicola Sturgeon that she would disclose a private phone conversation on a television broadcast. Class, unlike her slinky shoes, comes cheap.

https://stephendaisley.com/2017/06/07/kezia-took-a-round-right-in-the-foot/

Rhubarb said:

Pulpstar said:

brokenwheel said:

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.

TBF the Ladywood one was just outside the city centre and was reasonably accessible. OTOH, they did absolutely nothing to publicise it to the average man on New Street.

They didn't publicise the rally in Leeds Central to at least one party member in Leeds Central CLP - i.e. me! I wonder if Jezza told Hilary Benn he was coming?

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

My bad...

KentRising said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

My bad...

Oops.

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

Anecdote alert:

On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Mr. Evershed, I was tempted by this as well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p1BedwyFKY

Mr. Eagles, wise choice to go on a podcast. That way, your wardrobe won't blind anyone, frighten children, or induce epileptic fits.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/scottynational/status/872476502151049216

Anyone made a joke about Sturgeon working for the CIA/ US intel?

Charles said:

david_herdson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

No comment needed, I think.

Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

And the traffic wardens disciplined.

TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?

Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.

SandyRentool said:

MarkSenior said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

Con 380
Lab 197
SNP 45
Lib Dem 6
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18

Con maj 110

Con seat around 40-50 too high IMHO

I hope you are right Mark. Not holding my breath, however.

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

Our Nowcast for this morning:

Con: 353 (+23)
Lab: 219 (-13
SNP: 46 (-10)
LDem: 9 (+1)

Is there another ICM poll due? If memory serves they did their last EU ref poll a few days before June 23rd showing an Out lead that ended up being pretty much bang on the money.

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

Anecdote alert:

On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!

AlastairMeeks said:

The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

Con 380
Lab 197
SNP 45
Lib Dem 6
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18

Con maj 110

which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
(the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)

Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad

Ishmael_Z said:

david_herdson said:

Charles said:

david_herdson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

No comment needed, I think.

Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

And the traffic wardens disciplined.

TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?

They've caused reputational damage to their employer through their actions. Yes, technically they might have been legally entitled to do what they did but anyone with half a brain should be able to exercise their judgement in a case like that.

I hold no brief for traffic wardens but I imagine they have virtually zero discretion to refrain from ticketing a ticketable car, because if they did, it would be an invitation to bribery. So they may have been snookered either way (assuming as I do that "swooped" may be Sun speak for "went there in the normal course of duty).

It reminds of sending lorries into the B&Q at Wandsworth.
If you couldn't get into site within a couple of minutes (as they were unloading an earlier delivery) you would be watched on CCTV and then a traffic warden would swoop round on a moped and ticket the truck.

SandyRentool said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

SNIP

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.

Maybe there is something to the idea that Corbyn and McDonnell are putting great store by the Labour national percentage vote and want to drive up turnout in their safe seats.

Alistair said:

Norm said:

Alistair said:

Norm said:

Barnesian said:

Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

Con 302 (-2)
Lab 269 (+3)
SNP 44 (-2)

It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.

IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.

Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.

And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.

The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.

If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.

@JamieRoss7: It's notable how quickly Sturgeon has gone from ridiculing Corbyn's supposed ineptitude to trying to piggy-back on his surge in popularity.

The Labour pitch is that there will be no deal. They will propose a Queen's Speech and dare (or double dare) fellow "progressives" to vote against it "in a pact with the Toarieeees"

Carolus_Rex said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

Anecdote alert:

On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!

How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

SurveyMonkey?

I'm tired, busy, I've got my debut media performance tonight, and it's my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow.

#Stressed.

Good luck.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.

The full Yougov dataset is here:

https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

Con to Lab:

Bolton West
Canterbury
Kensington
Walsall North
Warwick and Leamington
Vale of Clwyd
Preseli Pembrokeshire

Lab to Con:

Halifax
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Peterborough
Portsmouth South

LD to Con:

Eastbourne
Oxford West and Abingdon
St Ives

SNP to Con:

Perth and North Perthshire

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

Alistair said:

Norm said:

Alistair said:

Norm said:

Barnesian said:

Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

Con 302 (-2)
Lab 269 (+3)
SNP 44 (-2)

It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.

IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.

Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.

And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.

The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.

If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.

Labour would U-turn on the manifesto commitment to leave the EU?

The political earthquake that would be the Tories losing, from the commanding position they enjoyed when the election was called, would inevitably call the whole process into question. All but a handful of Labour MPs are remainers, and the exceptions are cancelled out by Tory remainers.

IanB2 said:

Alistair said:

Norm said:

Alistair said:

Norm said:

Barnesian said:

Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

Con 302 (-2)
Lab 269 (+3)
SNP 44 (-2)

It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.

IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.

Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.

And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.

The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.

If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.

Which is why there will be a small Tory to Labour swing in Remain areas outside Scotland but a big Labour to Tory swing in Leave areas in England and Wales

BannedInParis said:

meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them

Edgbaston is 29th Tory target from Lab so be consistent with a 70 maj

Erdington Tory landslide

Mr. Isam, PT?

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

Anecdote alert:

On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Yes, I will be in Ilford North tonight and knocking up the vote there before polls close tomorrow evening too

Ishmael_Z said:

SouthamObserver said:

KentRising said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

My bad...

My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.

My first GE was 2005. I got two trains and the underground to Kent from Bath (where I was living as student) to vote Tory in one of the safest Tory seats in the country. The definition of pointless.

At that time Bath was safely Lib Dem, of course, so not registering there didn't matter.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

Anecdote alert:

On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!

How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.

Here's the Electoral Calculus page:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Leyton+and+Wanstead

Doesn't look like it includes Stratford, no.

Shame on me for having to look that up as I used to live there too!

Pulpstar said:

Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.

Having lived there as a student I could see Labour scraping a win in Leamington through the student vote but the Tories romping home in Warwick to win the seat overall

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad

That's pretty much free money, given the LDs have lost share relative to the Conservatives and Labour since the last election.

I'd combine it with a bet on the LibDems holding Orkney & Shetland, which is nowhere near as marginal as the 2015 result suggests. (I would also point out that O&S is a staggeringly small constituency.) My guess is that the LDs will get more than 50% of the vote and the SNP will be sub 30%.

yeah, bet max on the sportsbook's 1.9 10-19 seats, then have 0.42 of that max on 4.5 under 10 seats on the exchange. The under 10 is prob better though so could have a bigger factor than 0.42

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

SurveyMonkey?

Has Plato's PollCat reported any figures?

I do miss not getting my regular updates from Plato's Pussy...

AlastairMeeks said:

llef said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

Con 380
Lab 197
SNP 45
Lib Dem 6
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18

Con maj 110

which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
(the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)

I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?

I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.

Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.

It's emphatically just for amusement only.

ok fair enough - thanks for your thoughts and fwiw i agree with them!

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

Anecdote alert:

On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!

How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.

The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.

The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Isam, PT?

Personal Trainer don't you know!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Brom, some SNP, some Lib Dem? Be a lot, though.

He has SNP 7 down, Libs, UKIP and Plaid 1 down each. Maybe I'm not understanding churn of seats.

chrisb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.

The full Yougov dataset is here:

https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

Con to Lab:

Bolton West
Canterbury
Kensington
Walsall North
Warwick and Leamington
Vale of Clwyd
Preseli Pembrokeshire

Lab to Con:

Halifax
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Peterborough
Portsmouth South

LD to Con:

Eastbourne
Oxford West and Abingdon
St Ives

SNP to Con:

Perth and North Perthshire

Canterbury will not go Labour even if it's the one seat in Kent slightly trending that way. It still had a comfortable Leave majority last year as did all of Kent apart from Royal Tunbridge Wells..

Casino_Royale said:

Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.

A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.

There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.

There are shy Tories. Lots of them.

Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.

RobD said:

chrisb said:

SNP to Con:

Perth and North Perthshire

If we only win one seat in Scotland, this would be a good one to win.

Perhaps I could have been clearer those were just the changes in the Yougov projections compared to yesterday! The full list of SCon seats they are projecting is as follows:

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
East Renfrewshire
Moray
Ochil and South Perthshire
Perth and North Perthshire
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

chrisb said:

RobD said:

chrisb said:

SNP to Con:

Perth and North Perthshire

If we only win one seat in Scotland, this would be a good one to win.

Perhaps I could have been clearer those were just the changes in the Yougov projections compared to yesterday! The full list of SCon seats they are projecting is as follows:

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
East Renfrewshire
Moray
Ochil and South Perthshire
Perth and North Perthshire
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

*faints*

Lab MPs 100-149 @ 17.5 on the exchange.

AlastairMeeks said:

llef said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

Con 380
Lab 197
SNP 45
Lib Dem 6
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18

Con maj 110

which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
(the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)

I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?

I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.

Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.

It's emphatically just for amusement only.

I suspect Ceredgion is more vulnerable than it looks. The LDs need to persuade the local Tories to vote tactically to keep Plaid out.

Nemtynakht said:

currystar said:

chrisb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.

The full Yougov dataset is here:

https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

Con to Lab:

Bolton West
Canterbury
Kensington
Walsall North
Warwick and Leamington
Vale of Clwyd
Preseli Pembrokeshire

Lab to Con:

Halifax
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Peterborough
Portsmouth South

LD to Con:

Eastbourne
Oxford West and Abingdon
St Ives

SNP to Con:

Perth and North Perthshire

Kensington Labour ?

Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?

Simply the flaw in YouGov's model, importing demographically similar but politically different voters into unusual seats from those surrounding. Kensington will be safe Tory, despite all of its well off remainers, and Labour will be third in Portsmouth South.

How well will Corbyn/McDonnell take their defeat on Friday? Graciously, or will there be defiance, and a call to arms?

McDonnell has argued for mass protests in the past in response to political decisions he doesn't like.

If I were the police, I'd be preparing for civil disorder in places like London and Manchester over the weekend.

They won't take it well.