politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?

OblitusSumMe said:

I'm in Edinburgh North and Leith and we are receiving much larger amounts of Tory election literature than I received in 2015 in Newton Abbot (which in 2010 went Conservative with a majority of just 523).

The candidate was a postman...

They have been out delivering in all weathers

David_Evershed said:

MarkSenior said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.

I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.

Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.

Would be surprised if it's an easy hold.
From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.

Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.

The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .

Any thoughts on Cambridge Mark ?

Close but Labour hold

Mark

What is your view on Lib Dems apparent move away from being equi-distant from Labour and Conservative and instead under Farron becoming Labour Lite under a 'progressive' banner?

I do not accept that your view is correct

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.

Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not being obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.

oh yes please

Hyacinth Bucket for PM !

David_Evershed said:

Abandoning liberal economics will prove an even worse strategy.

Either you're liberal or you aren't. You can't be half liberal.

Succinctly put. I do hope the Lib Dems don't creep left, but try to regain the centre ground.

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Since others are doing so, I'll name the seats I'm expecting the Lib Dems to take. I expect the Lib Dems to take (in decreasing order of probability) Orkney & Shetland, Edinburgh West, Twickenham, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion. Anything after that is a bonus. Everything after Edinburgh West in my mind is by no means assured.

I think I've managed to convince everyone on this site that Edinburgh West is a nailed on LibDem gain, and I hope I won't end up with egg on my face on Friday!

Why do you think the LibDems won't do better in Scotland? They "won" North East Fife in the locals last month, and made gains in a few other seats where they also did well in the Holyrood elections: Argyll & Bute, and CS&ER for example. The SNP is also well down on where they were in 2016.

I can imagine the Lib Dems doing better in Scotland. But I don't think it's more likely than not that they will do so. Reading across from different elections is very dangerous.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.

I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.

Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.

South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.

Caitlin Moran winning over floating voters on Twitter.

Casino_Royale said:

Caitlin Moran winning over floating voters on Twitter.

London talk

it has no relevance elsewhere

Mr. B, alas, I don't speak Italian.

I will be interested to see how Canada goes. Just eyeing the markets now.

Slackbladder said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Boo hoo - I see C4 and R2 are upset... you wonder how much is hurt ego.

https://twitter.com/Hayley_Barlow/status/872393181538770944

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/872386495151308800

Of course the truth is actually that they simply don't need to go on things like radio or TV anymore, there's many more ways of getting out there.

There are plenty of ways of getting heard but don't the public have a right to see them challenged?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.

Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.

She doesn't have the right "equipment" to be leader.

Bobajob_PB said:

I'm forecasting a major PB Tory reverse ferret on Osborne today.

George Osborne bad to George Osborne good.

Have you read it? Vote Conservative ... but Theresa May is wrong about everything and has a vacuous manifesto. Here are a couple of people who'd do a better job. I paraphrase but that's the gist.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Corbyn is now 'forgiving them all' who have called him names

JC is a cult figure and ridiculous

Corbyn! Corbyn! Corbyn! Corbyn!

Jesus.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.

Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.

She's a lawyer who has turned career politicians and knows how to stick to her brief. I would not bet that much she is a convinced lefty.

The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.

Mr. Royale, if he resigns the Jezbollah will be crying "Eloi! Eloi! Lama sabacthani!"

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Corbyn's rally at Runcorn with labour majority of 20,285

This is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Evidence that Corbyn is going for a vote share strategy over seats.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Dadge said:

Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.

I'm don't think any of those names have made much impact, although that might change. Keep an eye on Esther McVey; who will be back in the Commons after tomorrow, and who deserves a senior post.

Whoever replaces May, they will be different.

jonny83 said:

Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...

Clearly Labour know they have lost the election and are trying to mitigate the damage...

Andrew Neil in fine form.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.

Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.

She's a lawyer who has turned career politicians and knows how to stick to her brief. I would not bet that much she is a convinced lefty.

The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.

Is she the one with a BTL property portfolio?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Betfair Tory majority and most seats both coming in further. Put another 500 on the former earlier as couldnot wait for Jack w piece....

I "traded out" then went 3k into the hole on T May PM after election at 1.21.

These rallies are going to scare the voters that decide these elections witless.

@jimwaterson: Two Tory attack lines that seem to be really cutting through, according to Labour people: the "garden tax" and criticism of Diane Abbott.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, what was his response?

Also, further to whoever mentioned that book (The Righteous Mind, upon checking) I wonder if the key left/right difference is arguments based on pathos or logos, respectively.

Not sure, he is considering Lib Dem or spoiling his ballot. I think I've pushed him out the Labour column. God I hate Corbyn, has it shown through here in the last few weeks at all ?

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Corbyn is now 'forgiving them all' who have called him names

JC is a cult figure and ridiculous

Corbyn! Corbyn! Corbyn! Corbyn!

Jesus.

So that's four votes for Jezza and one for the Messiah.

@Casino_Royale - you're a very naughty boy.

Gin138: think you will find it misleading, announced he was speaking at Weaver Vale, marginal taken by Tories last time. Box at right of screen was apparently wrong. Shows you cannot trust the media?

Alice_Aforethought said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

dyedwoolie said:

Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.

You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.

The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.

To be fair, he is by a long stretch the nastiest of them all, and rightly hated by Labour MPs.

Yes, I think I'd agree with that, Richard.

Although the funny thing is that McDonnell is the only politician I can remember who has ever thanked me (well, my tax demographic) for paying the enormous amount of income tax that I pay.

Everyone else utterly hates me for paying a lot of tax, and thinks I should be punished for doing so by paying even more.

Whoever gets in on Thursday (Tories 100ish majority IMO) should reflect on the fact that about 1% of us pay 25% of the income tax. If we ever get fed up with being hated for doing so, and if we leave, the exchequer will be utterly fucked.

It's 27%.

Pulpstar said:

Cicero said:

Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.

I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.

In East Dunbarton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?

rcs1000 said:

nunu said:

Think Vince will fail.

While I hope you're right, I think he'll be back in parliament on June 9th. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the only LibDem gain from the Conservatives.

Why?

1. Heathrow, which is much more toxic in Twickenham than Richmond.
2. It's Remainia Central.
3. It only need a small amount of tactical voting from Labour-ites, and Vince is (let's be honest) a socialist not a liberal.

If Cable wins and Farron and Lamb lose Vince C will be odds on to be next LD leader

Scott_P said:

@jimwaterson: Two Tory attack lines that seem to be really cutting through, according to Labour people: the "garden tax" and criticism of Diane Abbott.

"Garden tax" is a week too late.

Abbot has been a running joke on the doorstep since the police numbers.

TravelJunkie said:

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Corbyn's rally at Runcorn with labour majority of 20,285

This is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Evidence that Corbyn is going for a vote share strategy over seats.

Again he's In weaver vale. Prts of Runcorn are in weaver vale seat.

Thanks for the correction. Looking on ElectionMaps I see Hallwood Park, Palace Fields, Brookvale, Murdishaw and Windmill Hill are in Weaver Vale.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Betfair Tory majority and most seats both coming in further. Put another 500 on the former earlier as couldnot wait for Jack w piece....

Oh dear ....

They'll be tears before bedtime ....

Alanbrooke said:

williamglenn said:

JonathanD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche

If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.

Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.

I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.

The EU has pulled together after Brexit which is apparently a reason why it's a club we don't want to be part of.

surely its a club they dont want us to be part of ?

for all your woolly sentiment the lack of movement on the EU side to re-engage with UK and find an accommodation is the most noticeable event of the last year

had it been France they would be falling over themselves to keep her on board

all animals are equal but some are more equal than others

The big test for the EU now will be Beppe Grillo in Italy next year

SouthamObserver said:

A tragic and sobering fact that reveals so much about London as an international city is that most of those killed in the Westminster and Borough terror attacks were not UK citizens.

Some were tourists not residents.

With regard to the next LD leader,I have taken Vince Cable,fav to win Twickenham, at 50-1,and Simon Hughes,at 40-1(Hughes is now far behind Neil Coyle in the Bermondsey market) ,the basis being the 2nd and 4th favourites,Norman Lamb and Tom Brake respectively, at the time were likely to crash out.It still looks that way
The updated market still has Lamb at 9-2-a bet if you think he will survive -but Jo Swinson is favourite,best priced at 3-1 with PP, and is maybe their best bet.Like Labour,the LDs might just come to a conclusion that they need a woman leader and the LDs have a history of sexual harassment and impropriety.At GE2015,they were the only party to be all male.They could decide a woman is needed.All this is on the assumption she will gain East Dumbartonshire.
However,if the LDs really go tits up at this election,it is a case of who survives.Nick Clegg has proven he can stave off Labour in Sheffield Hallam already so has past form, and ,as long as he gets the Tory remainers on his side,the 4-7 on him retaining Hallam this time seems more than fair.Every tree hugger-there are a lot of us about- will back him too.Sheffield council are pulling up beautiful,majestic,road trees,not if they are diseased or have rampant roots,which is correct procedure,but as a measure to combat austerity.This is the biggest act of civil vandalism this century and Clegg has positioned himself on the side of the trees.Clegg strikes me as the absolute survivor.
If it's a case of last man standing for the LDs,Nick Clegg is like bindweed which is impossible to get rid of so Ladbrokes 16-1 on Clegg for next leader completes my 4-way dutch in this market.
Ed Davey would a player at 12-1 but his likelihood of winning Kingston and Wallington means,on balance,he is more likely to be a non-runner than not so you are risking your stake as I did with Simon Hughes.
The next LIb Dem market has lots of value depending on the GE2017 results.

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cicero said:

Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.

Quite a few of those look forlorn, but I would have thought Colchester is overly optimistic, with no UKIP standing this time.

Wasn't there somebody saying on here that there was no hope at all for the LibDems in Southwark?

How is Devon looking, I'm on the Tories odds on there generally for a fair few ton...

Well, Farron hasn't been seen in the SW outside Bristol for 4 weeks. So....I think we generally look in fine fettle.

Plymouth is going to be tougher. But there was very little LibDem vote there for Labour to steal, but big UKIP positions. Tories basically over-achieved last time, so it was always going to be a fight. Can't imagine the last few days have been good for Labour there though in winning Kippers over (but haven't been part of the campaign there , so just extrapolation....)

Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.

What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?

NickPalmer said:

jonny83 said:

Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...

That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.

Corbyn's final schedule is:
Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.

Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:

www.nickpalmer.org.uk

The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!

But how many of those 1.5 million were a) under 18 b) 18 plus, but not registered to vote where they will be tomorrow?

David_Evershed said:

Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.

What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?

David_Evershed said:

Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.

What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?

'Binners....

JackW said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Betfair Tory majority and most seats both coming in further. Put another 500 on the former earlier as couldnot wait for Jack w piece....

Oh dear ....

They'll be tears before bedtime ....

This is how bubbles form. People start by betting on the fundamentals -- polls and canvass reports (and Facebook views) -- but end up betting on price movements.

TravelJunkie said:

Beverley_C said:

TravelJunkie said:

GIN1138 said:

jonny83 said:

Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...

Clearly Labour know they have lost the election and are trying to mitigate the damage...

I'm going to keep repeating this.

He was in weaver vale. Stop lying to create a narrative

Pot. Kettle.

Jeremy corbyn is campaigning in weaver vale and Aberconwy this afternoon (Tory seat)

Poster after poster saying he's in safe seats is so please not true.

Corbyn has visited more Tory seats than labour held seats since the campaign starts.

Visiting Runcorn allowed him to campaign simultaneously in a marginal and a very safe seat.

Alice_Aforethought said:

Although the funny thing is that McDonnell is the only politician I can remember who has ever thanked me (well, my tax demographic) for paying the enormous amount of income tax that I pay.

Everyone else utterly hates me for paying a lot of tax, and thinks I should be punished for doing so by paying even more.

Whoever gets in on Thursday (Tories 100ish majority IMO) should reflect on the fact that about 1% of us pay 25% of the income tax. If we ever get fed up with being hated for doing so, and if we leave, the exchequer will be utterly fucked.

This is why the most vital economic task for the long-term good of the country is to find some way to help the middle 50% of the income distribution to earn more money. The tax base is too narrow.

Alice_Aforethought said:

Bobajob_PB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche

If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.

Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.

This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.

Indeed. What price a UK En Marche? Forward!

If a leftish party emerged in the UK that looked like it might be electorally successful, wouldn't the hard left just penetrate that party as well as / instead of Labour?

Reminds me of an Emerson poem.

They reckon ill who leave me out;
When me they fly, I am the wings.

"Candour is the wings of strength."

Evershed family motto.

NickPalmer said:

jonny83 said:

Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...

That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.

Corbyn's final schedule is:
Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.

Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:

www.nickpalmer.org.uk

The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!

You might cut Soubry's majority but end up losing Gedling and Nottingham South, we shall see