@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
Utilizing light aircraft for electoral purposes ended badly for Nigel Farage.
Yes , I agree with Mr Meeks , there is a paradox operating . As he says the par swing on polls is around 3% from LD to Con . On that basis with UNS North Norfolk would remain Lib Dem and Farron would easily retain Westmorland . Yet to read many comments on here Lamb is toast and Farron under threat . A very small improvement in the national polls or a slightly better relative local performance by the Lib Dems in the seats they hold and UNS would see no Lib Dem losses in this election . I will give my personal more detailed forecast FWIW later today but the only Lib Dem seat I see as under serious threat is Leeds N W and there I am hopeful that Greg Mulholland's personal vote will help him hold on .
So you dont see C&W under threat? Thats contrary to everything on tge ground from both sides....
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
The Tories always assumed that Corbyn himself would be the electoral poison. This may or may not be true, but it seems he is reinventing himself as a cuddly grandpa with a jam hose. But I think Diane Abbot is indeed emerging as a truly toxic individual. The Tories should make more of it.
Tory attacks on Corbyn have been over the top and I think have been preaching to the faithful. Abbott on the other hand doesn't need to be attacked - she is destroying her credibility fine on her own.
Plus now journalists see it as an easy win to ask her moderately difficult questions she will crash and burn on. They don't even need to be tough questions - just ones that are specific enough.
I think she is ill or something more serious with her memory.
I think she's fine.
It was just a case that she hadn't read the report and tried to blag her way through the interview (as as with the LBC where she hadn't thought to find out how much her police policy would cross)
Basically she's just a waste of space... But then most MP's (of all parties) are to be fair...
She will never be Home Secretary, even in the unlikely event of Corbyn leading a minority government. It wouldn't surprise me if we get an announcement about her health in the next 24 hours.
Replying to @bbclaurak The period of Diane Abbott being replaced is ‘indefinite’ the BBC understands - from @bbclaurak
What the frick does that mean? Why can't she just resign on health grounds? She can hardly pop back into the role on Friday now, whatever the result of the election.
The thing to remember with Lib Dems flooding into constituencies is they have bugger all to defend and a large membership. They can afford to target seats they know they can't win.
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
Sounds like CCHQ are making sure there are no shock libdem gains in the last couple of days.
She's in Cheltnham, and tory posters have reported e-mails calling for help in a number of seats the libdems had in 2010. The must be confident the labour surge isn't that much of a surge.
Cheers Mr Meeks. I was beginning to think discussing the LDs on PB was like Fight Club.
TSE reminded me last night that so far this election I haven't managed to upset SNP supporters. I'm very annoyed I'm going to miss out on the full set.
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
Hanretty has C&W as a 99% chance of turning blue.. On the ground Brake is not getting as much support plus the UKIP vote is going back to the Tories(7000) Lab have run a spirited campaign with a cand who has enthused their vote and an independant(Nick mattey) has hammered Brake in the incinerator. Add that to a disastrous bin roll out in the borough which has led to mountains of rubbish being left everywhere and this on the LD councils watch,it looks very tough for Tom. I wonder whether Mark is just trying to wind me.up...
That's the only odd thing - if she was that ill would she have been on the tube on the way? Would she have a diagnosis by now? I mean of course it could be complications with Diabetes. From everything we know it just invites questions which does seem odd.
What illness lowers your IQ? Early-onset Alzheimer's?
I would expect strong tactical voting in play in this election for the LDs in their held seats and the closest target seats. The wipeout of 2015 and the fact that the coalition feels like an entire eon ago, should mean that people will return to early 2000s levels of tactical voting in those few locations. I would be surprised to see them losing more than a few seats, and should make a couple of gains. I'd go with and 8-12 range being most likely at this point.
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
Good local election results for the Lib Dems (44% across the constituency) plus a very remain electorate with a high turn out and a right wing brexiter conservative MP.
Andrew George (ex LD MP) seems to have given up in St. Ives, sadly, and it doesn't seem like expectation management either. Large Kipper vote last time and 2nd referendum pledge playing badly.
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
George is now merely an innocent (*cough*) bystander at the rough old game and no longer a player. George runs the main London newspaper. George knows that London is now nailed on for LAB and that nothing can change that. George is addressing his Nemesis. Just for the LOL. Because he can. (Can't blame him, really.) QED.
Is May going anywhere else today apart from Cheltenham?
She's coming to Norfolk either to bolster flagging Tory support in Norwich North or help put Lamb on a skewer in North Norfolk.Norwich South is an overpriced 1-4 shot for a Labour hold for Clive Lewis as the Green vote has been well and truly squeazed dry and the Greens can expect to come a bad 4th.She will be wasting her time there.All the other Norfolk seats are certain Con holds.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
The Tory campaign has been inept and unstructured. It seems to be a series of knee-jerk reactions as opposed to a carefully planned strategy. It does not bode well for possible Brexit talks.
I strongly regret the way in which the Manchester and London atrocities have been used in this campaign in order to further political ends.
The protection of Human Rights is an International affair and within the Act there is more than adequate provision for special detention orders to be implemented. For Theresa May to pretend that she needs new powers is another example of her shoddy campaign method.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
a bloke who cant remember his own name is in no position to dish out criticism :-)
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?
Oxford West and Abingdon and Carshalton and Wallington
I thought C&W was Chingford & Woodford Green. That will of course be a very easy hold for Iain Duncan Smith, although trending Labour over time as inner Londoners snap up big family homes on the edge of town near to Epping Forest.
Hanretty has C&W as a 99% chance of turning blue.. On the ground Brake is not getting as much support plus the UKIP vote is going back to the Tories(7000) Lab have run a spirited campaign with a cand who has enthused their vote and an independant(Nick mattey) has hammered Brake in the incinerator. Add that to a disastrous bin roll out in the borough which has led to mountains of rubbish being left everywhere and this on the LD councils watch,it looks very tough for Tom. I wonder whether Mark is just trying to wind me.up...
which seat are you canvassing in today? Please give us some feedback later.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.
Agreed. I think (apart from the folly of having Farron as leader) that the Lib Dems made a great error in apparently spending their entire campaign attacking the Tories. By giving Corbyn a completely free pass they have tacitly endorsed Labour, and are simply not competing for the anyone-but-May vote.
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Thanks for the heads-up . Will make sure not to open the door if he comes calling:)
Lib-Dems definately in with a shout here, however there are an amazing number of Labour signs up now. Think the Corbyn surge during the campaign might actually help the Tories here, as Labour voters don't tactically switch over. Can see a 40/30/20 result on the night.
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
a bloke who cant remember his own name is in no position to dish out criticism :-)
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Thanks for the heads-up . Will make sure not to open the door if he comes calling:)
Lib-Dems definately in with a shout here, however there are an amazing number of Labour signs up now. Think the Corbyn surge during the campaign might actually help the Tories here, as Labour voters don't tactically switch over. Can see a 40/30/20 result on the night.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
passing the law is the easy bit
its when the unions kick off that we see what hes made of
Yes, must remember that Hollande also won a decent majority, and he also tried similar reforms without much success.
But still, in electoral terms it is pretty amazing. France's system probably slightly easier for an insurgent centrist party because they can benefit from tactical support in round 2 from both the left and right, but it is till impressive, especially as so many thought he would be forced to cohabit with the republicains.
The FN is having a shocker of a campaign on the other hand, very Nuttallesque. Abandoned Frexit, party in open disarray, her own authority much reduced. Struggle to see them on more than a few seats.
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
Good local election results for the Lib Dems (44% across the constituency) plus a very remain electorate with a high turn out and a right wing brexiter conservative MP.
Also Daisy Cooper is an absolute star, someone to watch out for in the future.
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.
Agreed, but the difficult question is what would mark out a radical centre programme in the UK context. Which vested interests should the Lib Dems aim to take on?
Land and property is the obvious one, and it could even be given a Brexity twist by going after CAP subsidies for large landowners.
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
To be fair, he is by a long stretch the nastiest of them all, and rightly hated by Labour MPs.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?
Well it's a strong remain area as you might expect, but its had a long held Liberal tradition and the Libs have scored 20,000 votes in every election since 83'. He obviously had a relationship as a decent local MP and I dont think many expected him to lose last time. May clearly has less appeal in these trendy, leafy suburbs as Cameron did and the average age in the constituency is on the young side. Without a good candidate like Dr Tania I doubt it would be close, but I'd guess (with no ground information) that her odds of greater than 2/1 on Betfair perhaps slightly undervalue her chances.
Cheers Mr Meeks. I was beginning to think discussing the LDs on PB was like Fight Club.
TSE reminded me last night that so far this election I haven't managed to upset SNP supporters. I'm very annoyed I'm going to miss out on the full set.
You've still got a day and a bit left to enrage the Nats.
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
50 to 70 gains IS a 100 plus majority.
Seriously can ANYONE in the media or the Tories add up ?
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?
A Cable defeat would be a highlight of the night for me. The entitlement of the vain old fraud gets right up my nose.
Best weather for Labour tomorrow - Cloudy with outbreaks of sun. No rain. About 18C.
Why? If they are relying on the young to vote:
Raining - Won't get out of bed, let alone the house Windy - See above Cold - See above Warm and sunny - Will absolutely get out the house and go straight down the...... pub. Beer gardens all round!
Labour need weather that is not too good, and not too bad.
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
Corbyn does not need demonising, neither does McDonnell. They both spent 40 years hanging out with apologists for terrorism; and, in McDonnell's case (and Abbott's, too), explicitly and unequivocally backing terrorists. If you give the right-wing press such a gift it will, understandably, make hay with it.
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
To be fair, he is by a long stretch the nastiest of them all, and rightly hated by Labour MPs.
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
from where both the tories and libdems are putting in resources and where their respective leaders are going today, something tells me the polling and data they are seeing is better for the libdems then the public polls. Prehaps coming from the labour figure because tories have not gone defensive against labour at all.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.
Lib Dems had been picking up Labour deserters who were pro Remain and anti Corbyn.
However, the apparent detoxification of Corbyn will mean many of these will return to Labour.
Lib Dems at HQ and in Westminster are out of touch with their local constituencies and out of touch with the people. They need a clear out at HQ and to get back to liberal basics on economics. Whilst Lib Dem HQ are social liberals they have stopped being economic liberals. Lib Dem HQ needs to be reminded - It's the economy stupid.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
Sorry to be dim but which is the idiotic bit? PS ok sorry got it now.
Yes, must remember that Hollande also won a decent majority, and he also tried similar reforms without much success.
It's not really comparable though, because Hollande came to power promising fluffy bunnies and free owls for everyone. It was only part-way during his term that the economic damage was getting so bad that he was persuaded to attempt some half-hearted reforms. Macron has been more realistic from the start, and also won't be dependent on socialist deputies, so I think he has a much better chance of making at least some progress. Still, it won't be easy - this is France.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?
Oxford West and Abingdon and Carshalton and Wallington
I thought C&W was Chingford & Woodford Green. That will of course be a very easy hold for Iain Duncan Smith, although trending Labour over time as inner Londoners snap up big family homes on the edge of town near to Epping Forest.
The greater long-run trend in C &WG is the slow rise in the ethnic minority population, and the slow emigration of better off white people to Epping Forest. This is likely to reduce the Tory majority over time, although I cannot see there being any risk of a loss this time, despite yesterday's strange story of Labour optimism there.
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?
Well it's a strong remain area as you might expect, but its had a long held Liberal tradition and the Libs have scored 20,000 votes in every election since 83'. He obviously had a relationship as a decent local MP and I dont think many expected him to lose last time. May clearly has less appeal in these trendy, leafy suburbs as Cameron did and the average age in the constituency is on the young side. Without a good candidate like Dr Tania I doubt it would be close, but I'd guess (with no ground information) that her odds of greater than 2/1 on Betfair perhaps slightly undervalue her chances.
It seemed to me in retrospect that Tania Mathias was the perfect candidate to beat Cable last time, so while I admit my local knowledge is limited and second hand I can't see why she wouldn't do so again.
But then I'm biased. Seeing the expression on that duplicitous old sod's face when he lost was my personal Portillo moment of 2015. Even better than Balls, who I actually felt quite sorry for.
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
Good local election results for the Lib Dems (44% across the constituency) plus a very remain electorate with a high turn out and a right wing brexiter conservative MP.
Also Daisy Cooper is an absolute star, someone to watch out for in the future.
Can't be worse than Anne Main who I despise with a passion , ever since her spectacular expenses troughing. Will decide my vote based on tonights polls , if May win looks nailed on will vote LibDem
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
from where both the tories and libdems are putting in resources and where their respective leaders are going today, something tells me the polling and data they are seeing is better for the libdems then the public polls. Prehaps coming from the labour figure because tories have not gone defensive against labour at all.
Actually the Bolsover and OxWAB anecdotes imply a far bigger leave-remain tectonic shift than anyone could possibly have imagined.
Yes, must remember that Hollande also won a decent majority, and he also tried similar reforms without much success.
It's not really comparable though, because Hollande came to power promising fluffy bunnies and free owls for everyone. It was only part-way during his term that the economic damage was getting so bad that he was persuaded to attempt some half-hearted reforms. Macron has been more realistic from the start, and also won't be dependent on socialist deputies, so I think he has a much better chance of making at least some progress. Still, it won't be easy - this is France.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
She is just so hopeless. Boulton also showing his labour leanings all the time. Faisal Islam as Juncker's personal assistant and Ed Conwy as the most miserable finance commentator you could have.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
Sorry to be dim but which is the idiotic bit? PS ok sorry got it now.
Well if they have 50 gains their chances of 100+ majority must be reasonable.
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
from where both the tories and libdems are putting in resources and where their respective leaders are going today, something tells me the polling and data they are seeing is better for the libdems then the public polls. Prehaps coming from the labour figure because tories have not gone defensive against labour at all.
Actually the Bolsover and OxWAB anecdotes imply a far bigger leave-remain tectonic shift than anyone could possibly have imagined.
If tories are at 44% and 7/8% ahead does that imply winning deep into labour LEAVE seats but just holding on to Remain seats even if there is a big swing against them?
Comments
This is simply because Vanilla will not let me post under bobajobPB despite the fact I am not banned and have done nothing wrong! HELP!!!!!
I have not been able to post since the weekend...
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
She's in Cheltnham, and tory posters have reported e-mails calling for help in a number of seats the libdems had in 2010. The must be confident the labour surge isn't that much of a surge.
its when the unions kick off that we see what hes made of
On the ground Brake is not getting as much support plus the UKIP vote is going back to the Tories(7000)
Lab have run a spirited campaign with a cand who has enthused their vote and an independant(Nick mattey) has hammered Brake in the incinerator.
Add that to a disastrous bin roll out in the borough which has led to mountains of rubbish being left everywhere and this on the LD councils watch,it looks very tough for Tom.
I wonder whether Mark is just trying to wind me.up...
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/view-st-ives-region-hates-eu-relies-its-money
This site gives an amusing take, if leftish, on the candidates in St. Ives and North Cornwall.
https://psephologyfromtheperiphery.wordpress.com/
George runs the main London newspaper.
George knows that London is now nailed on for LAB and that nothing can change that.
George is addressing his Nemesis. Just for the LOL. Because he can. (Can't blame him, really.)
QED.
LOL.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/election-2017-theresa-may-on-her-way-to-norfolk-in-bid-to-bolster-conservative-vote-1-5051512
Carshalton & Wallington.
Carshalton and Wallington
From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
I strongly regret the way in which the Manchester and London atrocities have been used in this campaign in order to further political ends.
The protection of Human Rights is an International affair and within the Act there is more than adequate provision for special detention orders to be implemented. For Theresa May to pretend that she needs new powers is another example of her shoddy campaign method.
I think (apart from the folly of having Farron as leader) that the Lib Dems made a great error in apparently spending their entire campaign attacking the Tories.
By giving Corbyn a completely free pass they have tacitly endorsed Labour, and are simply not competing for the anyone-but-May vote.
Lib-Dems definately in with a shout here, however there are an amazing number of Labour signs up now. Think the Corbyn surge during the campaign might actually help the Tories here, as Labour voters don't tactically switch over. Can see a 40/30/20 result on the night.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
But still, in electoral terms it is pretty amazing. France's system probably slightly easier for an insurgent centrist party because they can benefit from tactical support in round 2 from both the left and right, but it is till impressive, especially as so many thought he would be forced to cohabit with the republicains.
The FN is having a shocker of a campaign on the other hand, very Nuttallesque. Abandoned Frexit, party in open disarray, her own authority much reduced. Struggle to see them on more than a few seats.
You'd be better off starting a new party like Macron did rather than trying to hijack an existing centre-left party.
https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/872382812598525953
Land and property is the obvious one, and it could even be given a Brexity twist by going after CAP subsidies for large landowners.
Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority.
Idiot.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/872397001924784128
Seriously can ANYONE in the media or the Tories add up ?
Best weather for Labour tomorrow - Cloudy with outbreaks of sun. No rain. About 18C.
Why? If they are relying on the young to vote:
Raining - Won't get out of bed, let alone the house
Windy - See above
Cold - See above
Warm and sunny - Will absolutely get out the house and go straight down the...... pub. Beer gardens all round!
Labour need weather that is not too good, and not too bad.
I'm not sure the forecast is all that obliging.
Edit: it says winnings paid in free bets......pooh!
However, the apparent detoxification of Corbyn will mean many of these will return to Labour.
Lib Dems at HQ and in Westminster are out of touch with their local constituencies and out of touch with the people. They need a clear out at HQ and to get back to liberal basics on economics. Whilst Lib Dem HQ are social liberals they have stopped being economic liberals. Lib Dem HQ needs to be reminded - It's the economy stupid.
PS ok sorry got it now.
70+ maj until 2022 is far far better for May than what she had without an election.
Oh and no GO is a win too.
But then I'm biased. Seeing the expression on that duplicitous old sod's face when he lost was my personal Portillo moment of 2015. Even better than Balls, who I actually felt quite sorry for.
Will decide my vote based on tonights polls , if May win looks nailed on will vote LibDem
FWIW Marriott forecasts only two Lib Dem holds and no gains - and no seats in England.
However, Sophy Ridge is excellent
https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/872393309649608705