politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?
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Guess they're going to put Diane Abbott in it?Fleet_of_Worlds said:
Utilizing light aircraft for electoral purposes ended badly for Nigel Farage.Scott_P said:@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
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Well lump on 7/4 Brake then..MarkSenior said:
Quietly confident now on C and Wtimmo said:
So you dont see C&W under threat?MarkSenior said:Yes , I agree with Mr Meeks , there is a paradox operating . As he says the par swing on polls is around 3% from LD to Con . On that basis with UNS North Norfolk would remain Lib Dem and Farron would easily retain Westmorland . Yet to read many comments on here Lamb is toast and Farron under threat . A very small improvement in the national polls or a slightly better relative local performance by the Lib Dems in the seats they hold and UNS would see no Lib Dem losses in this election .
I will give my personal more detailed forecast FWIW later today but the only Lib Dem seat I see as under serious threat is Leeds N W and there I am hopeful that Greg Mulholland's personal vote will help him hold on .
Thats contrary to everything on tge ground from both sides....0 -
Didn't Farage (try to) do the same?Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't that be a violation of electoral law ?Scott_P said:@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
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Walked away from the resultant crash though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. Farage did the same in Buckingham in 2010.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't that be a violation of electoral law ?Scott_P said:@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
It helped him finish third in a two horse race.0 -
What the frick does that mean? Why can't she just resign on health grounds? She can hardly pop back into the role on Friday now, whatever the result of the election.Barnesian said:
Eleanor GarnierVerified accountBarnesian said:
She will never be Home Secretary, even in the unlikely event of Corbyn leading a minority government. It wouldn't surprise me if we get an announcement about her health in the next 24 hours.GIN1138 said:
I think she's fine.Barnesian said:
I think she is ill or something more serious with her memory.rkrkrk said:
Tory attacks on Corbyn have been over the top and I think have been preaching to the faithful.Patrick said:The Tories always assumed that Corbyn himself would be the electoral poison. This may or may not be true, but it seems he is reinventing himself as a cuddly grandpa with a jam hose. But I think Diane Abbot is indeed emerging as a truly toxic individual. The Tories should make more of it.
Abbott on the other hand doesn't need to be attacked - she is destroying her credibility fine on her own.
Plus now journalists see it as an easy win to ask her moderately difficult questions she will crash and burn on. They don't even need to be tough questions - just ones that are specific enough.
It was just a case that she hadn't read the report and tried to blag her way through the interview (as as with the LBC where she hadn't thought to find out how much her police policy would cross)
Basically she's just a waste of space... But then most MP's (of all parties) are to be fair...
@BBCEleanorG
Replying to @bbclaurak
The period of Diane Abbott being replaced is ‘indefinite’ the BBC understands - from @bbclaurak0 -
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.0
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Good morning. Before I get the usual flurry of comments, yes, this is a slightly different username.
This is simply because Vanilla will not let me post under bobajobPB despite the fact I am not banned and have done nothing wrong! HELP!!!!!
I have not been able to post since the weekend...0 -
The lib Dems to people on here are a new type of marmite party you either loath them or think they are irrelevant.0
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The thing to remember with Lib Dems flooding into constituencies is they have bugger all to defend and a large membership. They can afford to target seats they know they can't win.0
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Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.0
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you change your name faster than Diane Abbott changes hairstyleBobajob_PB said:Good morning. Before I get the usual flurry of comments, yes, this is a slightly different username.
This is simply because Vanilla will not let me post under bobajobPB despite the fact I am not banned and have done nothing wrong! HELP!!!!!
I have not been able to post since the weekend...0 -
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.0 -
Something of a modus operandi..OchEye said:
Walked away from the resultant crash though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. Farage did the same in Buckingham in 2010.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't that be a violation of electoral law ?Scott_P said:@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
It helped him finish third in a two horse race.0 -
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?El_Capitano said:Not writing them off yet.
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.0 -
Oh, *chapeau*Theuniondivvie said:
Something of a modus operandi..OchEye said:
Walked away from the resultant crash though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. Farage did the same in Buckingham in 2010.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't that be a violation of electoral law ?Scott_P said:@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
It helped him finish third in a two horse race.0 -
Cheers Mr Meeks. I was beginning to think discussing the LDs on PB was like Fight Club.0
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It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.0 -
Sounds like CCHQ are making sure there are no shock libdem gains in the last couple of days.
She's in Cheltnham, and tory posters have reported e-mails calling for help in a number of seats the libdems had in 2010. The must be confident the labour surge isn't that much of a surge.
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TSE reminded me last night that so far this election I haven't managed to upset SNP supporters. I'm very annoyed I'm going to miss out on the full set.SimonStClare said:Cheers Mr Meeks. I was beginning to think discussing the LDs on PB was like Fight Club.
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I don't have any choice, Alan. I cannot post under bobajobPB for reasons entirely unknown. I have been a good boy!!Alanbrooke said:
you change your name faster than Diane Abbott changes hairstyleBobajob_PB said:Good morning. Before I get the usual flurry of comments, yes, this is a slightly different username.
This is simply because Vanilla will not let me post under bobajobPB despite the fact I am not banned and have done nothing wrong! HELP!!!!!
I have not been able to post since the weekend...0 -
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.0 -
passing the law is the easy bitRichard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
its when the unions kick off that we see what hes made of0 -
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.Pulpstar said:I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
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Hanretty has C&W as a 99% chance of turning blue..
On the ground Brake is not getting as much support plus the UKIP vote is going back to the Tories(7000)
Lab have run a spirited campaign with a cand who has enthused their vote and an independant(Nick mattey) has hammered Brake in the incinerator.
Add that to a disastrous bin roll out in the borough which has led to mountains of rubbish being left everywhere and this on the LD councils watch,it looks very tough for Tom.
I wonder whether Mark is just trying to wind me.up...0 -
What illness lowers your IQ? Early-onset Alzheimer's?Nemtynakht said:
That's the only odd thing - if she was that ill would she have been on the tube on the way? Would she have a diagnosis by now? I mean of course it could be complications with Diabetes. From everything we know it just invites questions which does seem odd.isam said:Yesterday Diane was caught out by an email scam saying she felt bad lying about being more ill than she was
https://twitter.com/talkradio/status/8723798443483054090 -
I would expect strong tactical voting in play in this election for the LDs in their held seats and the closest target seats. The wipeout of 2015 and the fact that the coalition feels like an entire eon ago, should mean that people will return to early 2000s levels of tactical voting in those few locations. I would be surprised to see them losing more than a few seats, and should make a couple of gains. I'd go with and 8-12 range being most likely at this point.0
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Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.0
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Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?0 -
Good local election results for the Lib Dems (44% across the constituency) plus a very remain electorate with a high turn out and a right wing brexiter conservative MP.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.0 -
They'd elect Osama Bin Laden's corpse if it had a red rosette there.dyedwoolie said:Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
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Andrew George (ex LD MP) seems to have given up in St. Ives, sadly, and it doesn't seem like expectation management either. Large Kipper vote last time and 2nd referendum pledge playing badly.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/view-st-ives-region-hates-eu-relies-its-money
This site gives an amusing take, if leftish, on the candidates in St. Ives and North Cornwall.
https://psephologyfromtheperiphery.wordpress.com/
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comment of the day.Theuniondivvie said:
Something of a modus operandi..OchEye said:
Walked away from the resultant crash though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. Farage did the same in Buckingham in 2010.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't that be a violation of electoral law ?Scott_P said:@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
It helped him finish third in a two horse race.0 -
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.0 -
Oxford West and Abingdon and Carshalton and WallingtonBobajob_PB said:Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?0 -
George is now merely an innocent (*cough*) bystander at the rough old game and no longer a player.
George runs the main London newspaper.
George knows that London is now nailed on for LAB and that nothing can change that.
George is addressing his Nemesis. Just for the LOL. Because he can. (Can't blame him, really.)
QED.
LOL.
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She's coming to Norfolk either to bolster flagging Tory support in Norwich North or help put Lamb on a skewer in North Norfolk.Norwich South is an overpriced 1-4 shot for a Labour hold for Clive Lewis as the Green vote has been well and truly squeazed dry and the Greens can expect to come a bad 4th.She will be wasting her time there.All the other Norfolk seats are certain Con holds.Gallowgate said:Is May going anywhere else today apart from Cheltenham?
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/election-2017-theresa-may-on-her-way-to-norfolk-in-bid-to-bolster-conservative-vote-1-50515120 -
Oxford West & AbingdonBobajob_PB said:Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?
Carshalton & Wallington.0 -
Oxford West and AbingdonBobajob_PB said:Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?
Carshalton and Wallington0 -
Oxwab is Oxford West and Abingdon.0
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Would be surprised if it's an easy hold.Casino_Royale said:
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.0 -
Not acvording to Mark SeniorBrom said:
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.Pulpstar said:I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
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They already doPulpstar said:
They'd elect Osama Bin Laden's corpse if it had a red rosette there.dyedwoolie said:Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
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The Tory campaign has been inept and unstructured. It seems to be a series of knee-jerk reactions as opposed to a carefully planned strategy. It does not bode well for possible Brexit talks.
I strongly regret the way in which the Manchester and London atrocities have been used in this campaign in order to further political ends.
The protection of Human Rights is an International affair and within the Act there is more than adequate provision for special detention orders to be implemented. For Theresa May to pretend that she needs new powers is another example of her shoddy campaign method.0 -
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?Brom said:
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.Pulpstar said:I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
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a bloke who cant remember his own name is in no position to dish out criticism :-)Bobajob_PB said:
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.0 -
Are you able to opt out from recievig political literature - 4 yesterday 2 today from Lib Dems smacks of desperation0
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I thought C&W was Chingford & Woodford Green. That will of course be a very easy hold for Iain Duncan Smith, although trending Labour over time as inner Londoners snap up big family homes on the edge of town near to Epping Forest.timmo said:
Oxford West and Abingdon and Carshalton and WallingtonBobajob_PB said:Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?0 -
which seat are you canvassing in today? Please give us some feedback later.timmo said:Hanretty has C&W as a 99% chance of turning blue..
On the ground Brake is not getting as much support plus the UKIP vote is going back to the Tories(7000)
Lab have run a spirited campaign with a cand who has enthused their vote and an independant(Nick mattey) has hammered Brake in the incinerator.
Add that to a disastrous bin roll out in the borough which has led to mountains of rubbish being left everywhere and this on the LD councils watch,it looks very tough for Tom.
I wonder whether Mark is just trying to wind me.up...0 -
Agreed.Pulpstar said:
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
I think (apart from the folly of having Farron as leader) that the Lib Dems made a great error in apparently spending their entire campaign attacking the Tories.
By giving Corbyn a completely free pass they have tacitly endorsed Labour, and are simply not competing for the anyone-but-May vote.0 -
Thanks for the heads-up . Will make sure not to open the door if he comes calling:)Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Lib-Dems definately in with a shout here, however there are an amazing number of Labour signs up now. Think the Corbyn surge during the campaign might actually help the Tories here, as Labour voters don't tactically switch over. Can see a 40/30/20 result on the night.0 -
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.dyedwoolie said:Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.0 -
Alanbrooke said:
a bloke who cant remember his own name is in no position to dish out criticism :-)Bobajob_PB said:
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
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I think Labour will come second there.Tony said:
Thanks for the heads-up . Will make sure not to open the door if he comes calling:)Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Lib-Dems definately in with a shout here, however there are an amazing number of Labour signs up now. Think the Corbyn surge during the campaign might actually help the Tories here, as Labour voters don't tactically switch over. Can see a 40/30/20 result on the night.0 -
Mr Dancing - any comment?Scott_P said:@ChrisRDavison: @Dasher777 @BRRSC @Cat_Headley @NicolaSturgeon In a private conversation .@NicolaSturgeon confessed she hates the bagpipes and loves morris dancing #FMConvos
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Yes, must remember that Hollande also won a decent majority, and he also tried similar reforms without much success.Alanbrooke said:
passing the law is the easy bitRichard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
its when the unions kick off that we see what hes made of
But still, in electoral terms it is pretty amazing. France's system probably slightly easier for an insurgent centrist party because they can benefit from tactical support in round 2 from both the left and right, but it is till impressive, especially as so many thought he would be forced to cohabit with the republicains.
The FN is having a shocker of a campaign on the other hand, very Nuttallesque. Abandoned Frexit, party in open disarray, her own authority much reduced. Struggle to see them on more than a few seats.0 -
Good luck with that. You do realise that the Democrats bit of the title is from Social Democrats?Pulpstar said:
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
You'd be better off starting a new party like Macron did rather than trying to hijack an existing centre-left party.0 -
Meanwhile, another right of centre leader is on cruise control:
https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/8723828125985259530 -
Also Daisy Cooper is an absolute star, someone to watch out for in the future.Verulamius said:
Good local election results for the Lib Dems (44% across the constituency) plus a very remain electorate with a high turn out and a right wing brexiter conservative MP.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.0 -
Agreed, but the difficult question is what would mark out a radical centre programme in the UK context. Which vested interests should the Lib Dems aim to take on?Pulpstar said:This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.
Land and property is the obvious one, and it could even be given a Brexity twist by going after CAP subsidies for large landowners.0 -
To be fair, he is by a long stretch the nastiest of them all, and rightly hated by Labour MPs.Peter_the_Punter said:
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.dyedwoolie said:Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.0 -
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.Andy_Cooke said:
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold.Casino_Royale said:
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.0 -
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent
Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority.
Idiot.0 -
There are days when being a bookie must be an enjoyable job:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/8723970019247841280 -
Well it's a strong remain area as you might expect, but its had a long held Liberal tradition and the Libs have scored 20,000 votes in every election since 83'. He obviously had a relationship as a decent local MP and I dont think many expected him to lose last time. May clearly has less appeal in these trendy, leafy suburbs as Cameron did and the average age in the constituency is on the young side. Without a good candidate like Dr Tania I doubt it would be close, but I'd guess (with no ground information) that her odds of greater than 2/1 on Betfair perhaps slightly undervalue her chances.Carolus_Rex said:
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?Brom said:
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.Pulpstar said:I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
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You've still got a day and a bit left to enrage the Nats.AlastairMeeks said:
TSE reminded me last night that so far this election I haven't managed to upset SNP supporters. I'm very annoyed I'm going to miss out on the full set.SimonStClare said:Cheers Mr Meeks. I was beginning to think discussing the LDs on PB was like Fight Club.
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More of an Uncle Joe than an Aunt Sally ?Peter_the_Punter said:
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.dyedwoolie said:Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.0 -
Oh I'm not going to do it- far too much like efforttlg86 said:
Good luck with that. You do realise that the Democrats bit of the title is from Social Democrats?Pulpstar said:
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
You'd be better off starting a new party like Macron did rather than trying to hijack an existing centre-left party. 0 -
50 to 70 gains IS a 100 plus majority.dyedwoolie said:Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent
Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority.
Idiot.
Seriously can ANYONE in the media or the Tories add up ?0 -
A Cable defeat would be a highlight of the night for me. The entitlement of the vain old fraud gets right up my nose.Carolus_Rex said:
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?Brom said:
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.Pulpstar said:I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
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Off topic (sort of):
Best weather for Labour tomorrow - Cloudy with outbreaks of sun. No rain. About 18C.
Why? If they are relying on the young to vote:
Raining - Won't get out of bed, let alone the house
Windy - See above
Cold - See above
Warm and sunny - Will absolutely get out the house and go straight down the...... pub. Beer gardens all round!
Labour need weather that is not too good, and not too bad.
I'm not sure the forecast is all that obliging.0 -
Corbyn does not need demonising, neither does McDonnell. They both spent 40 years hanging out with apologists for terrorism; and, in McDonnell's case (and Abbott's, too), explicitly and unequivocally backing terrorists. If you give the right-wing press such a gift it will, understandably, make hay with it.Peter_the_Punter said:
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.dyedwoolie said:Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
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Yes, I think I'd agree with that, Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:
To be fair, he is by a long stretch the nastiest of them all, and rightly hated by Labour MPs.Peter_the_Punter said:
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.dyedwoolie said:Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.0 -
from where both the tories and libdems are putting in resources and where their respective leaders are going today, something tells me the polling and data they are seeing is better for the libdems then the public polls. Prehaps coming from the labour figure because tories have not gone defensive against labour at all.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
0 -
Oh dear.dyedwoolie said:Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent
Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority.
Idiot.0 -
This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.Bobajob_PB said:
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
0 -
Why are coraloffering 20/1 for tories to win most seats? does that mean I win £100 if I put on £5?
Edit: it says winnings paid in free bets......pooh!0 -
Lib Dems had been picking up Labour deserters who were pro Remain and anti Corbyn.
However, the apparent detoxification of Corbyn will mean many of these will return to Labour.
Lib Dems at HQ and in Westminster are out of touch with their local constituencies and out of touch with the people. They need a clear out at HQ and to get back to liberal basics on economics. Whilst Lib Dem HQ are social liberals they have stopped being economic liberals. Lib Dem HQ needs to be reminded - It's the economy stupid.0 -
Sorry to be dim but which is the idiotic bit?dyedwoolie said:Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent
Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority.
Idiot.
PS ok sorry got it now.0 -
It's not really comparable though, because Hollande came to power promising fluffy bunnies and free owls for everyone. It was only part-way during his term that the economic damage was getting so bad that he was persuaded to attempt some half-hearted reforms. Macron has been more realistic from the start, and also won't be dependent on socialist deputies, so I think he has a much better chance of making at least some progress. Still, it won't be easy - this is France.Paristonda said:Yes, must remember that Hollande also won a decent majority, and he also tried similar reforms without much success.
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An increase majority isn't the only prize on offer - 2 more years until the next are up for grabs.
70+ maj until 2022 is far far better for May than what she had without an election.
Oh and no GO is a win too.
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Macron was of course a PS minister. "Radical centre" is projection, really - over here he'd fit comfortably in the SDP/Blairite mould.tlg86 said:
Good luck with that. You do realise that the Democrats bit of the title is from Social Democrats?Pulpstar said:
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.Richard_Nabavi said:It's looking as though Emmanuel Macron is going to get his majority in the French assembly:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
You'd be better off starting a new party like Macron did rather than trying to hijack an existing centre-left party.0 -
Surely Gamble Aware protocols should have kicked in?AlastairMeeks said:There are days when being a bookie must be an enjoyable job:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/8723970019247841280 -
The greater long-run trend in C &WG is the slow rise in the ethnic minority population, and the slow emigration of better off white people to Epping Forest. This is likely to reduce the Tory majority over time, although I cannot see there being any risk of a loss this time, despite yesterday's strange story of Labour optimism there.Bobajob_PB said:
I thought C&W was Chingford & Woodford Green. That will of course be a very easy hold for Iain Duncan Smith, although trending Labour over time as inner Londoners snap up big family homes on the edge of town near to Epping Forest.timmo said:
Oxford West and Abingdon and Carshalton and WallingtonBobajob_PB said:Pulpstar said:
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.Fleet_of_Worlds said:Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
These abbreviations are clear as mud, Puplstar.
Oxwab, C&W?
What?0 -
It seemed to me in retrospect that Tania Mathias was the perfect candidate to beat Cable last time, so while I admit my local knowledge is limited and second hand I can't see why she wouldn't do so again.Brom said:
Well it's a strong remain area as you might expect, but its had a long held Liberal tradition and the Libs have scored 20,000 votes in every election since 83'. He obviously had a relationship as a decent local MP and I dont think many expected him to lose last time. May clearly has less appeal in these trendy, leafy suburbs as Cameron did and the average age in the constituency is on the young side. Without a good candidate like Dr Tania I doubt it would be close, but I'd guess (with no ground information) that her odds of greater than 2/1 on Betfair perhaps slightly undervalue her chances.Carolus_Rex said:
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?Brom said:
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.Pulpstar said:I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
But then I'm biased. Seeing the expression on that duplicitous old sod's face when he lost was my personal Portillo moment of 2015. Even better than Balls, who I actually felt quite sorry for.0 -
Can't be worse than Anne Main who I despise with a passion , ever since her spectacular expenses troughing.Verulamius said:
Also Daisy Cooper is an absolute star, someone to watch out for in the future.Verulamius said:
Good local election results for the Lib Dems (44% across the constituency) plus a very remain electorate with a high turn out and a right wing brexiter conservative MP.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
Will decide my vote based on tonights polls , if May win looks nailed on will vote LibDem 0 -
Actually the Bolsover and OxWAB anecdotes imply a far bigger leave-remain tectonic shift than anyone could possibly have imagined.nunu said:
from where both the tories and libdems are putting in resources and where their respective leaders are going today, something tells me the polling and data they are seeing is better for the libdems then the public polls. Prehaps coming from the labour figure because tories have not gone defensive against labour at all.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.0 -
Brexit will probably help them a bit.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's not really comparable though, because Hollande came to power promising fluffy bunnies and free owls for everyone. It was only part-way during his term that the economic damage was getting so bad that he was persuaded to attempt some half-hearted reforms. Macron has been more realistic from the start, and also won't be dependent on socialist deputies, so I think he has a much better chance of making at least some progress. Still, it won't be easy - this is France.Paristonda said:Yes, must remember that Hollande also won a decent majority, and he also tried similar reforms without much success.
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Good editorial.Scott_P said:
FWIW Marriott forecasts only two Lib Dem holds and no gains - and no seats in England.
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She is just so hopeless. Boulton also showing his labour leanings all the time. Faisal Islam as Juncker's personal assistant and Ed Conwy as the most miserable finance commentator you could have.dyedwoolie said:Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent
Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority.
Idiot.
However, Sophy Ridge is excellent0 -
Is that even possible? How many seats are they standing in? 3 in Scotland.TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely Gamble Aware protocols should have kicked in?AlastairMeeks said:There are days when being a bookie must be an enjoyable job:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/8723970019247841280 -
My SCON candidate
https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/8723933096496087050 -
No doubt in 1979 some pundits on the continent were saying the same thing about the UK.Richard_Nabavi said:Still, it won't be easy - this is France.
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Not if it's the marketing intern.TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely Gamble Aware protocols should have kicked in?AlastairMeeks said:There are days when being a bookie must be an enjoyable job:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/8723970019247841280 -
Dont YG update that model by 11am?0
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Well if they have 50 gains their chances of 100+ majority must be reasonable.Ishmael_Z said:
Sorry to be dim but which is the idiotic bit?dyedwoolie said:Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent
Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority.
Idiot.
PS ok sorry got it now.0 -
If tories are at 44% and 7/8% ahead does that imply winning deep into labour LEAVE seats but just holding on to Remain seats even if there is a big swing against them?Pulpstar said:
Actually the Bolsover and OxWAB anecdotes imply a far bigger leave-remain tectonic shift than anyone could possibly have imagined.nunu said:
from where both the tories and libdems are putting in resources and where their respective leaders are going today, something tells me the polling and data they are seeing is better for the libdems then the public polls. Prehaps coming from the labour figure because tories have not gone defensive against labour at all.Pulpstar said:
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?Verulamius said:Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.0
