politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not Y
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Most people assume Boro is in the 'North East', though I'm told it's in the ceremonial county of Yorkshire (or one of the Yorkshires). John Motson used to bang on about Leeds v Boro being a 'derby' which confused many.david_herdson said:
Yes, but in regional accounting totals, it's in the North East.SandyRentool said:
Erm, Middlesbrough South is in Yorkshire, not County Durham!Dadge said:
Tories are leading by 8% nationally. In play in NE: Bp Auckland, Darlington, Middlesbrough S.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
They must stay there all day, to avoid time-based bias in the samples, but otherwise the demographic weighting is done by choosing the polling stations, as you say. One potential source of error is if postal voters change their voting behaviour in ways different to polling station voters.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't think (but stand to be corrected) that exit polls have the same problem because they don't seek to speak to a prescribed number of students, pensioners etc.stevef said:Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
They just ask people who actually vote at selected polling stations the catchment area of which is likely to be reflective of the population. If the catchment for the polling station is 20% 18-24 year olds and 30% over 65s, but in the event an amazing surge amongst the youth means 30% of voters are in the youngest group and only 25% pensioners... well, there's no need for adjustment as the pollsters talk to them outside the polling station.
Lots of background here:
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer
So hopefully the exit poll should give us a genuine steer, as usual!0 -
Lab doesn't need good news in London.bigjohnowls said:
Good news for Lab in London bad news for his designated hand holder methinksNigelb said:
It's notable that the White House has yet to release ANY official statement on the London attack - instead of which we have the *President of the United States* misrepresenting and trolling the London Mayor.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps a new low for the moral homunculus in the Oval Office.0 -
There's a 14% ukip vote to squeeze. Are YouGov predicting labour will get a lot of that vote as well?AndyJS said:UKpollingreport categories Canterbury as a "safe Conservative seat".
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/canterbury/
William Hill: Tories 1/100.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/10971349/Canterbury+Constituency+-+Party+Winner.html0 -
Actually Kipperism is in some ways quite Tory, in the original political sense. It's the Conservatives who are technically TINOs.williamglenn said:
Kippery Tories are TINO socialists under the skin. That's why it's all going to pot now.Patrick said:
I don't think Brexit was out of pattern at all. Very high turnout = Tories win. Tory in the case of Brexit being real Tory/kippery Tory not Davey/Georgey/TINO Tory.IanB2 said:
True. If unexpected turnout patterns hadn't happened twice in the last twelve months, we could ignore the possibility entirely.Patrick said:
Go to wikipedia and look at the voting stats for all the GEs since 1974. Chart the absolute number of votes for all parties and for DNV. Staring you right in the face is the fact that Tories + DNV is basically static. And that LD + Lab is too. There was a wobble (but not a huge one) in 1997, and add UKIP to the Tory/DNV one in 2015. I think some people are saying this decades old stability is going to be broken in a meaningful way for the first time by an army of younger voters getting out and voting Labour. But, historically, when people get off their arses to vote in higher numbers those votes mostly go to the Tories. This time around the Tory vote has been very steady in the mid to high 40s (having swallowed most of UKIP) - all the poll volatility seems to be coming from Labour (eating into the LibDems). For Labour to succeed there will have to be an unprecednted amount of new voters turning up and voting only for them and for them at the same time to swallow a big chunk of the LibDem vote. Ain't impossible - but ain't likely either.IanB2 said:
IF turnout starts to vary significantly from one election to the next, in ways that both cross-correlate with voting intention and are difficult to predict, then accurate polling becomes impossible.FrancisUrquhart said:
So this time half the room can tell the other half why they were totally wrong.MikeSmithson said:
If there is a 1-12% spread then some pollsters will, surely, have got it right. The GE2015 polling inquiry happened because ALL pollsters got it wrong.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...
The post-2017 inquiry could be as simple as "the young turned out / the young didn't turn out". Case closed.0 -
The EC&A twitter stuff makes me think London might not neccesarily be to Corbyn's advantage........bigjohnowls said:
Good news for Lab in London bad news for his designated hand holder methinksNigelb said:
It's notable that the White House has yet to release ANY official statement on the London attack - instead of which we have the *President of the United States* misrepresenting and trolling the London Mayor.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps a new low for the moral homunculus in the Oval Office.0 -
Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
Totally unlike the PM?BigIan said:
They just want film of him being adored, not challenged.AndyJS said:
Labour are probably worried about a potential swing to the Tories in Northumberland and Teeside, perhaps Gateshead is the most obvious place to hold a rally for those areas.Gallowgate said:
But why bother? This seat is going red no matter what. We've not even had any Lib Dem or Tory literature. Nothing at all!AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
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It was the front page of early editions of the Telegraph on Sunday, and would have dominated the morning shows if it hadn't been overtaken by the tragic events in London.kle4 said:
It spooked a few on here, but I've not heard that one mentioned at all in real life - if someone hears about it for the first time and believes the most negative interpretation, I could see it being effective, but I wonder how much it is coming through.MarqueeMark said:
Jeremy Corbyn's Garden Tax is way more effective.....TravelJunkie said:
I don't talk to traitors. (scum who put their party first country second). People who live in essex put their country people in places like berkshire, devon put themselves first. Traitors to the state.MarqueeMark said:
No, Kippers are going to pour out and vote for Jeremy 'open the borders and let them all in" Corbyn......TravelJunkie said:the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.
Go outside and knock on strangers doors and scare them with the IRA.0 -
Liked both your post apart from the last paraCyclefree said:Part 2 of 2
Enough is indeed enough. I don't have much confidence that either the Tories or Labour will do much about this or as much as ought to be done. I have, though, much much less confidence in Corbyn precisely because of his past record, because I don't believe that the sensible things he's been saying recently really represent a genuine change of mind and because of who his closest allies are and what they have said and done.
But I also don't think this particular debate will much help the Tories. Whether more police would help or not is moot. But it does feed into an impression that sometimes the Tories know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Good security does not come cheap. If the aid budget can be protected how much more should this apply to the security/police budget?
If I - as an "Anyone But Corbyn" voter - feels like this, can we really be sure that the Tories will win?
I increasingly feel Corbyn might do it. I hope, I really hope, I'm wrong. It will IMO be a moral, political and economic disaster for Britain. But if the last year has taught us anything, it should have taught us that "it should not happen" does not mean "it won't happen".
If I am wrong you can all laugh and jeer at me on Thursday night. If not, I shall be a political seer.
Don't lose the faith. If you are wrong no-one be on here posting, they'll all be scrambling to protect their assets!0 -
He likes Cornwall?RobD said:
Then why did Cameron spend the final days of the 2015 campaign marauding around the South West?AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
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How do the exit polls take account of postal votes?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't think (but stand to be corrected) that exit polls have the same problem because they don't seek to speak to a prescribed number of students, pensioners etc.stevef said:Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
They just ask people who actually vote at selected polling stations the catchment area of which is likely to be reflective of the population. If the catchment for the polling station is 20% 18-24 year olds and 30% over 65s, but in the event an amazing surge amongst the youth means 30% of voters are in the youngest group and only 25% pensioners... well, there's no need for adjustment as the pollsters talk to them outside the polling station.0 -
I think the first 30 something minutes are as tense as I've seen in a film. Right up to the 'own goal' in the pub.kle4 said:
I found the movie very bland. It was Black Hawk Down, on a shoestring budget and nobody compelling, was my major impression.TOPPING said:Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.0 -
Ah, so that's why she's doing the tour of the massively safe Tory seats then!logical_song said:
Totally unlike the PM?BigIan said:
They just want film of him being adored, not challenged.AndyJS said:
Labour are probably worried about a potential swing to the Tories in Northumberland and Teeside, perhaps Gateshead is the most obvious place to hold a rally for those areas.Gallowgate said:
But why bother? This seat is going red no matter what. We've not even had any Lib Dem or Tory literature. Nothing at all!AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
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Is it head-to-head or separate interviews?calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
So let's say that youth turnout does increase by quite a lot this election what sort of seats will be showing signs of that first? Any ones in particular to look out for on election night to indicate the youth tsunami might be on?0
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Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
OblitusSumMe said:
Did they give a reason?David_Evershed said:The House of Commons Procedure Committee rejected the St Stephens' solution in 2011. Westminster showing how little it cares for local electors. Shameful.
They like the idea that the Speaker is a constituency MP and don't care about local electors having no choice and an MP who cannot debate or vote in parliament.0 -
Kippery Tories are TINO socialists under the skin. That's why it's all going to pot now.
I suspect you are right. They left Labour becasue they loathe the UK-bashing Labour Islington mindset. But..they want jam. If May was brutally focussed on her majority she should have kept up the 'proper Brexit' stuff but given a very dull manifesto from the economic point of view (instead of dementia tax) or even offerd some jam. I think these voters will stick with her for as long as Brexit needs but then are gone unless offered jam (ie back to Labour in 2022). It shows that identity/nationality/immigration is a bigger issue for several million voters than jam but only up until we're properly out. One for politicians to remind themselves of in years to come.0 -
Alot of them are safe Labour....jonny83 said:So let's say that youth turnout does increase by quite a lot this election what sort of seats will be showing signs of that first? Any ones in particular to look out for on election night to indicate the youth tsunami might be on?
Leeds NW is one to watch.
Even though it'll be a safe Labour hold, Sheffield Central heading over 30k Lab would give a good idea if the youth really have turned out for Corbyn.0 -
I don't think this is true.AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
Like hearing your own name mentioned on the other side of a busy room, people absolutely do pay much more attention when the news reporter says "Mrs May, visiting YOUR TOWN, said..."
It gives a sense that you're at the heart of the action and that Mrs May (in that case) is particularly keen on winning your town, that you're important to her, that it links to a mass-produced letter from her saying "Andy... I need you to do this one thing for me, Andy..." such that you, personally, are the person being asked by the PM for your vote.0 -
Ha Ha HaCyclefree said:Part 2 of 2
Enough is indeed enough. I don't have much confidence that either the Tories or Labour will do much about this or as much as ought to be done. I have, though, much much less confidence in Corbyn precisely because of his past record, because I don't believe that the sensible things he's been saying recently really represent a genuine change of mind and because of who his closest allies are and what they have said and done.
But I also don't think this particular debate will much help the Tories. Whether more police would help or not is moot. But it does feed into an impression that sometimes the Tories know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Good security does not come cheap. If the aid budget can be protected how much more should this apply to the security/police budget?
If I - as an "Anyone But Corbyn" voter - feels like this, can we really be sure that the Tories will win?
I increasingly feel Corbyn might do it. I hope, I really hope, I'm wrong. It will IMO be a moral, political and economic disaster for Britain. But if the last year has taught us anything, it should have taught us that "it should not happen" does not mean "it won't happen".
If I am wrong you can all laugh and jeer at me on Thursday night. If not, I shall be a political seer.
Sorry I am laughing before Thursday.
Even though I would love to see May lose there is no chance IMO
TMICIPM increased majority 50-700 -
Quite. I suspect this has more to do with Darlington and Bishop Auckland than Gateshead.AndyJS said:
Labour are probably worried about a potential swing to the Tories in Northumberland and Teeside, perhaps Gateshead is the most obvious place to hold a rally for those areas.Gallowgate said:
But why bother? This seat is going red no matter what. We've not even had any Lib Dem or Tory literature. Nothing at all!AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
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The "old one-two"?Jason said:
So much for Cyan's theory that Corbyn is a misundersood genius.Scott_P said:Strong and stable? His quote didn't last the day...
@steve_hawkes: Should the PM resign? Jeremy Corbyn: "No, I think we should vote to decide who are MPs are and who our Government is going to be."
"The old ... err .. two"
"Old."
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I might have thought it was a secret pact. Potential Conservative voters receive this letter and say "God, No!" and vote Labour, thereby keeping the SNP out of Edinburgh South. This is the pay-off for Labour staying out of Edinburgh SW and East Renfrewshire. Except I don't think the Scottish Conservatives are as cunning as that and have actually sent the same leaflet to everyone in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
Got the tactical voting juices flowing?FF43 said:Just got my first communication from "Ruth Davidson's candidate" in Edinburgh South. Dodgy barchart claiming that only a Ruth Davidson candidate can beat the SNP here. (The Conservatives were a poor third last time and the seat is held by Labour). The leaflet is clearly identical across Scotland with the local Ruth Davidson candidate mailmerged in. There is a tiny photo of the Ruth Davidson candidate along with five much larger photos of the great woman herself (and interestingly two rather unflattering images of Nicola Sturgeon). The piece makes two claims again and again. Only Ruth Davidson can stop another independence referendum and only her candidates can beat the SNP. It gives no positive reason at all to vote for the Conservatives, makes no mention of the anything that might happen in the UK parliament, of Theresa May, Brexit, the economy, welfare etc.
It is utterly dire.0 -
Surely Cyan's theory is more that Cyan is a misunderstood genius.Jason said:
So much for Cyan's theory that Corbyn is a misundersood genius.Scott_P said:Strong and stable? His quote didn't last the day...
@steve_hawkes: Should the PM resign? Jeremy Corbyn: "No, I think we should vote to decide who are MPs are and who our Government is going to be."
After all, he did predict MLP to win the French pres.
Oh, wait....0 -
Newcastle has a lot of students I suppose? But that probably won't be representative of most non university constituencies.jonny83 said:So let's say that youth turnout does increase by quite a lot this election what sort of seats will be showing signs of that first? Any ones in particular to look out for on election night to indicate the youth tsunami might be on?
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I can see Ipswich falling if there is a youth surge. According to UKPolling report the constituency is "boundary of the seat is drawn quite tightly around urban Ipswich, with many of the town`s suburbs to the north and east falling into the neighbouring seats and excluding some of the more Conservative-leaning areas of the town." also there is a newish University there aswell.TravelJunkie said:
Ipswich is lean labour. Word on the ground is the ben gummers in trouble but it was only from the local newspaper.nunu said:
Battersea is also lean Labour as is Hastings and Rye. Rubbish.AndyJS said:
Take a look at YouGov's constituency forecasts.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
it would be so weird if may wins and rudd/gummer get taken down.
But not Canterbury as it is not just the town, it is surrounding rurual villages as well. (even accouting for the apperent surge in Corbynism amongst farmers as reported on here yesterday).0 -
@MrHarryCole: her appearance on ITV tonight has been cancelled.... https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/8717361632452034560
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He caught the sleeper to Penzance last time: http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03277/cameron_3277714b.jpgmidwinter said:
He likes Cornwall?RobD said:
Then why did Cameron spend the final days of the 2015 campaign marauding around the South West?AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
This campaign has missed his energy....
(ps, that same day, April 23rd, Miliband was at an NHS rally in Leeds)0 -
Exactly. Last week I posted the story here about how Kantar called at my door a month back, wanting "five or ten minutes" of my time. I only invited them in because I thought it might be about the election (it wasn't). From their perspective I was simply someone who happened to be in and allowed myself to be persuaded to answer half an hour's worth of questions about things I never buy, and programmes I never watch. They weren't to know I selected myself for their survey solely from interest in politics.OblitusSumMe said:
The thing that really surprised me was when they said they had to dial 20 phone numbers to get one response. As far as I can tell this makes all opinion polls self-selecting voodoo polls and I'm surprised that they do as well as they do.IanB2 said:
If it's just a question of too many young people, or too many oldies, or a sample unbalanced by last voting behaviour, they can compensate by weighting according to whatever sub-catogories they think appropriate.OblitusSumMe said:
Does it matter if the original sample is not random?AlastairMeeks said:There is a lot that could be done with YouGov's type of model. It seems fairly clear that some groups of voters have shifted quite dramatically from 2015. It also seems fairly clear that these groups are not evenly distributed across constituencies. By modelling how these groups of voters have changed voting intention, the ultimate seat tally should be more accurate than uniform national swing.
The polling companies have the necessary data to do this.
What I'm unclear about is how the confidence intervals work. For improved Conservative (or Labour) performance, how is the model tweaked from their best guess? Is it simply by reinserting uniform national swing by the back door or do YouGov model the different groups on different voting preferences?
The really interesting - and difficult - question, is what if the type (by vote) of people who respond to polls is different from the type of people who don't, or won't?
The fundamental assumption underpinning the mathematical basis of opinion polling - that the sample is random - is completely shot to pieces.
Much as I've been entertained by the reactions to the opinion polls in this campaign it does disturb me that they have such an influence on the campaign narrative when they are so fundamentally flawed.0 -
Farron's problem is that he is an Englishman fighting in a Scottish sub-election against a Scotswoman. It should be Lib Dem's Scottish leader versus Sturgeon. Poor Lib Dem campaign organising.Pulpstar said:
Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
It was hardly Citizen Kane (or The Rock), but I liked it because I like Jack O'Connell and he preserved the dramatic tension for me. Likewise Starred Up was pretty bland in terms of storyline and outcome but fantastic performances, on the whole.kle4 said:
I found the movie very bland. It was Black Hawk Down, on a shoestring budget and nobody compelling, was my major impression.TOPPING said:Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.
Films to be good, for me, must be good Saturday evening pizza and wine viewing fodder. Nothing too demanding.0 -
Anecdote: a friend of a relative is the campaign manager for the Labour candidate in one of the Plymouth seats. Earlier in the campaign he was expecting a 10k majority for the Tories thanks to the kippers decamping en masse. More recently he was confident enough to place some bets on his man at odds which have since shortened considerably.The_Taxman said:
OGH was saying the other day that the Tory leaders visit to the south west was indicative of the narrowing of the polls narrative. I disagreed with that because it is a slightly different dynamic for the Tories and LD as the nearest challenger. But Corbyn visiting rock solid Labour seats 3 days before the vote is not good at all for Labour.AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
To be truthful I think the opinion polls are not right (I have my own views on why, which I will keep to myself). I suspect the Tories are miles out in front and it will be a landslide Tory victory.
I'm hearing that third hand, so take with a pinch of salt.0 -
Let's hope that's the last we see of her as a public figure. Once Jeremy resigns, I can't see his successor wanting to explore Germany on a motorbike with her. Or indeed, have her anywhere within a million miles of a TV camera or radio mike.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: her appearance on ITV tonight has been cancelled.... https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/871736163245203456
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Theresa May as Home Secretary:
-Reduced police numbers by 20000, as well as severely denting morale.
-Stopped control orders.
-Demanded reduction of stop and search.
-Sucks up to the Saudi's, a repressive, Wahhabist dictatorship that funds extremist mosques throughout Europe, and arguably funds ISIS directly.
-Suppresses findings of report into Jihadi funding. Why? Afraid it might upset our 'allies' in the ME?
-Fails to reduce immigration, even from outside the EU where she had controls to.
- Reduces border control staff numbers.
Let's be honest here, had this series of attacks occurred outside of an electoral campaign she'd have had no choice but to step down by now.0 -
Looking at twitter, I think you're right.FF43 said:
I might have thought it was a secret pact. Potential Conservative voters receive this letter and say "God, No!" and vote Labour, thereby keeping the SNP out of Edinburgh South. This is the pay-off for Labour staying out of Edinburgh SW and East Renfrewshire. Except I don't think the Scottish Conservatives are as cunning as that and have actually sent the same leaflet to everyone in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
Got the tactical voting juices flowing?FF43 said:Just got my first communication from "Ruth Davidson's candidate" in Edinburgh South. Dodgy barchart claiming that only a Ruth Davidson candidate can beat the SNP here. (The Conservatives were a poor third last time and the seat is held by Labour). The leaflet is clearly identical across Scotland with the local Ruth Davidson candidate mailmerged in. There is a tiny photo of the Ruth Davidson candidate along with five much larger photos of the great woman herself (and interestingly two rather unflattering images of Nicola Sturgeon). The piece makes two claims again and again. Only Ruth Davidson can stop another independence referendum and only her candidates can beat the SNP. It gives no positive reason at all to vote for the Conservatives, makes no mention of the anything that might happen in the UK parliament, of Theresa May, Brexit, the economy, welfare etc.
It is utterly dire.
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Indeed, it'd funny if SLID end up with more seats than SCON !Pulpstar said:
Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
There is a limit to the number of students. To be in Newcastle means they are not somewhere else.midwinter said:
Newcastle has a lot of students I suppose? But that probably won't be representative of most non university constituencies.jonny83 said:So let's say that youth turnout does increase by quite a lot this election what sort of seats will be showing signs of that first? Any ones in particular to look out for on election night to indicate the youth tsunami might be on?
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Yawn.TravelJunkie said:Theresa May as Home Secretary:
-Reduced police numbers by 20000, as well as severely denting morale.
-Stopped control orders.
-Demanded reduction of stop and search.
-Sucks up to the Saudi's, a repressive, Wahhabist dictatorship that funds extremist mosques throughout Europe, and arguably funds ISIS directly.
-Suppresses findings of report into Jihadi funding. Why? Afraid it might upset our 'allies' in the ME?
-Fails to reduce immigration, even from outside the EU where she had controls to.
- Reduces border control staff numbers.
Let's be honest here, had this series of attacks occurred outside of an electoral campaign she'd have had no choice but to step down by now.0 -
Did the Labour Home Secretary stand down after the 2005 attacks. Thought not.TravelJunkie said:Theresa May as Home Secretary:
-Reduced police numbers by 20000, as well as severely denting morale.
-Stopped control orders.
-Demanded reduction of stop and search.
-Sucks up to the Saudi's, a repressive, Wahhabist dictatorship that funds extremist mosques throughout Europe, and arguably funds ISIS directly.
-Suppresses findings of report into Jihadi funding. Why? Afraid it might upset our 'allies' in the ME?
-Fails to reduce immigration, even from outside the EU where she had controls to.
- Reduces border control staff numbers.
Let's be honest here, had this series of attacks occurred outside of an electoral campaign she'd have had no choice but to step down by now.0 -
It's missed him full stop tbhKentRising said:
He caught the sleeper to Penzance last time: http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03277/cameron_3277714b.jpgmidwinter said:
He likes Cornwall?RobD said:
Then why did Cameron spend the final days of the 2015 campaign marauding around the South West?AndyJS said:
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.Gallowgate said:FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
This campaign has missed his energy....
(ps, that same day, April 23rd, Miliband was at an NHS rally in Leeds)0 -
I can see Labour picking up some UKIP support in the north and midlands, but in a southern university seat like Canterbury? Seems unlikely.nunu said:
There's a 14% ukip vote to squeeze. Are YouGov predicting labour will get a lot of that vote as well?AndyJS said:UKpollingreport categories Canterbury as a "safe Conservative seat".
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/canterbury/
William Hill: Tories 1/100.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/10971349/Canterbury+Constituency+-+Party+Winner.html0 -
There are advantages though. My dad is in the Buckingham constituency and he has had a couple of questions about leasehold rights answered very quickly by government departments after approaching Bercow. If the Speaker asks a question I think it gets 'prioritised'.David_Evershed said:OblitusSumMe said:
Did they give a reason?David_Evershed said:The House of Commons Procedure Committee rejected the St Stephens' solution in 2011. Westminster showing how little it cares for local electors. Shameful.
They like the idea that the Speaker is a constituency MP and don't care about local electors having no choice and an MP who cannot debate or vote in parliament.0 -
Thanks for clarifying that. This morning it appeared that you were quite a fan of Steve Hilton's view on it.bigjohnowls said:
The Terrorists are responsible.TOPPING said:
Indeed I just wondered whether our own Corbyn-ite felt the same.David_Evershed said:
According to Corbyn May is responsible.TOPPING said:
You didn't answer my earlier question about who you thought was responsible for the terrorist attacks, John?bigjohnowls said:
Just making a point if you are in the same lobby more often than not it undermines your point somewhat.Floater said:
Big John spinning? consider me (not) shockedTOPPING said:
Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40111329
However when your actual record in Government is one of abject failure on Police cuts and you accuse those warning you of crying wolf etc etc etc
Doesnt need spinning it hits you between the eyes unless you are a PB Tory0 -
May will change the name of control orders to stable.Prodicus said:
Pairing?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
But Jeremy won't resign and the Labour front Bench will be retainedinall its glory.MarqueeMark said:
Let's hope that's the last we see of her as a public figure. Once Jeremy resigns, I can't see his successor wanting to explore Germany on a motorbike with her. Or indeed, have her anywhere within a million miles of a TV camera or radio mike.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: her appearance on ITV tonight has been cancelled.... https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/871736163245203456
0 -
Yes please. Lots and lots of good news for Labour in London would be ideal, means much less good news to go around in the marginalsRobD said:
Lab doesn't need good news in London.bigjohnowls said:
Good news for Lab in London bad news for his designated hand holder methinksNigelb said:
It's notable that the White House has yet to release ANY official statement on the London attack - instead of which we have the *President of the United States* misrepresenting and trolling the London Mayor.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps a new low for the moral homunculus in the Oval Office.
0 -
Hmm you're right, Nicola is going to tonk him I suspect.David_Evershed said:
Farron's problem is that he is an Englishman fighting in a Scottish sub-election against a Scotswoman. It should be Lib Dem's Scottish leader versus Sturgeon. Poor Lib Dem campaign organising.Pulpstar said:
Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
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Poor Tim Farron is having a very bad campaign, you are right of course he should have delegated to the Scottish Lib Dems as Scots have a parochial view about English people interfering in their politics. Doesn't stop the SNP messing around with English politics though!David_Evershed said:
Farron's problem is that he is an Englishman fighting in a Scottish sub-election against a Scotswoman. It be Lib Dem's Scottish leader versus Sturgeon. Poor Lib Dem campaign organising.Pulpstar said:
Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
But, but, but, Ian Dunt said Jezza was "winning"...dyedwoolie said:Corbyn retracts his call for May to resign and says leave it till Thursday and qualifies it as 'a lot of people would want her to resign if she were still HS'
She isn't and u turning on his call within two hours is pathetic in the extreme. He's flailing.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
CCHQ shoring up the Kipper vote?Scott_P said:0 -
Ipswich was considered under great threat last time too. It didn't happen then and I sincerely doubt it will happen now.nunu said:
I can see Ipswich falling if there is a youth surge. According to UKPolling report the constituency is "boundary of the seat is drawn quite tightly around urban Ipswich, with many of the town`s suburbs to the north and east falling into the neighbouring seats and excluding some of the more Conservative-leaning areas of the town." also there is a newish University there aswell.TravelJunkie said:
Ipswich is lean labour. Word on the ground is the ben gummers in trouble but it was only from the local newspaper.nunu said:
Battersea is also lean Labour as is Hastings and Rye. Rubbish.AndyJS said:
Take a look at YouGov's constituency forecasts.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
it would be so weird if may wins and rudd/gummer get taken down.
But not Canterbury as it is not just the town, it is surrounding rurual villages as well. (even accouting for the apperent surge in Corbynism amongst farmers as reported on here yesterday).0 -
Surely it should be Farron against someone from the SNP who's actually standing for election to Parliament?David_Evershed said:
Farron's problem is that he is an Englishman fighting in a Scottish sub-election against a Scotswoman. It should be Lib Dem's Scottish leader versus Sturgeon. Poor Lib Dem campaign organising.Pulpstar said:
Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
I do hope that Aaron can sing the national anthem because he's otherwise scoring quite low on David Cameron's mother's test.Pulpstar said:More heavy hitters join Aaron.
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/8717243751495966720 -
Corbyn has gone from "she should resign" to "she should not resign" to "a lot of people would have wanted her to resign"
He makes Trump look coordinated0 -
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Careful with student votes; at least half university students have broken up for the summer and the remainder are doing exams; not exactly the right mood music for a visit to the polling station.midwinter said:
Newcastle has a lot of students I suppose? But that probably won't be representative of most non university constituencies.jonny83 said:So let's say that youth turnout does increase by quite a lot this election what sort of seats will be showing signs of that first? Any ones in particular to look out for on election night to indicate the youth tsunami might be on?
0 -
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/seumas-ordered-corbyn-spin-real-views-defence/
What we already knew - Corbyn is Milne's puppet.
Oh, and this -
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/tories-condemn-corbyns-support-for-fighters-returning-from-syria/
Corbyn tough on terror.0 -
Good luck @Tissue_Price if you're reading this!Pulpstar said:More heavy hitters join Aaron.
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/8717243751495966720 -
Bloody French innit?timmo said:0 -
The confidence has ebbed out of TM & Ruth - particularly compared to the SCON manifesto launch !
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/8717394106305536030 -
Much as I have just recently heaped shit upon opinion polling, they haven't been *that* wrong.Cyclefree said:I increasingly feel Corbyn might do it. I hope, I really hope, I'm wrong. It will IMO be a moral, political and economic disaster for Britain. But if the last year has taught us anything, it should have taught us that "it should not happen" does not mean "it won't happen".
If I am wrong you can all laugh and jeer at me on Thursday night. If not, I shall be a political seer.
Some polls gave Trump a lead in the popular vote, which he lost. The analysis at 538 correctly found that Trump would have an advantage in the Electoral College if the popular vote was close enough. Plenty of polls gave Leave the lead in the British EU membership referendum. Some polls did give the Tories a lead before the 2015 GE.
Though we aren't entirely finished with opinion polls for this GE, the last poll to give Labour a lead was two months prior to the EU referendum (YouGov by 3%). The polling accuracy would have to be even worse this time than previously.0 -
I'm sure he can !AlastairMeeks said:
I do hope that Aaron can sing the national anthem because he's otherwise scoring quite low on David Cameron's mother's test.Pulpstar said:More heavy hitters join Aaron.
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/8717243751495966720 -
@TJ PB'ers generally don't just post the parties' attack lines up here (unless you are going on to analyse them) - there isn't any point: we can all see the politicians using them, we've almost all made up our minds already, and it simply spaces out the posts that are worth reading. Just a pointer.Mortimer said:
Yawn.TravelJunkie said:Theresa May as Home Secretary:
-Reduced police numbers by 20000, as well as severely denting morale.
-Stopped control orders.
-Demanded reduction of stop and search.
-Sucks up to the Saudi's, a repressive, Wahhabist dictatorship that funds extremist mosques throughout Europe, and arguably funds ISIS directly.
-Suppresses findings of report into Jihadi funding. Why? Afraid it might upset our 'allies' in the ME?
-Fails to reduce immigration, even from outside the EU where she had controls to.
- Reduces border control staff numbers.
Let's be honest here, had this series of attacks occurred outside of an electoral campaign she'd have had no choice but to step down by now.0 -
For the first time in a while the Tory lead among pollsters has actually stabilised - YouGov (even them) showing it as stil being 4 points and ICM as still being 11 points. Labour need a 13 point lead to actually get a majority. Yet you still have PBers in a panic. LOL.0
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Dianne Abbot is bad enough but May telling lies about her comments on the DNa database is crass.She said that people who were not charged or innocent should be removed. She also thought it affected the black community greatly. I think we should all be on the DNa database from birth for all sorts of reasons including medical.0
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Fair point, was just trying to think of an area where seats declare early with a young population.TudorRose said:
Careful with student votes; at least half university students have broken up for the summer and the remainder are doing exams; not exactly the right mood music for a visit to the polling station.midwinter said:
Newcastle has a lot of students I suppose? But that probably won't be representative of most non university constituencies.jonny83 said:So let's say that youth turnout does increase by quite a lot this election what sort of seats will be showing signs of that first? Any ones in particular to look out for on election night to indicate the youth tsunami might be on?
0 -
Ruth Davidson looks like she's just seen another SCON councillor social media account.calum said:The confidence has ebbed out of TM & Ruth - particularly compared to the SCON manifesto launch !
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/8717394106305536030 -
Some of the criticisms might be fair, but this conclusion is ludicrous on its face.TravelJunkie said:
Let's be honest here, had this series of attacks occurred outside of an electoral campaign she'd have had no choice but to step down by now.
Firstly, people appreciate that there are bad people who want to do us harm. There's no indication - yet - that any of the measures you name either caused the attacks we've seen or worsened their consequences. There's therefore no smoking gun (or indeed evidence that police cuts led to YOUR bike being stolen etc).
Secondly, May would make the case that, taken as a whole, her policy (including not just cuts she's made but also enhancements she's made) has made us safer. Is that correct? I don't know, but it's not a resigning matter.
Arguments are made all the time that a government minister or PM has pursued some policy that has had seriously bad consequences for people. It's totally valid to make those points, and some will believe it while others won't, but you really need a direct, causal link to claim the scalp.
0 -
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?stevef said:Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
0 -
Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights ActTravelJunkie said:Theresa May as Home Secretary:
-Stopped control orders.
0 -
According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%0
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If you are wrong, I won't be jeering, as I agree with your analysis.Cyclefree said:Part 2 of 2
Enough is indeed enough. I don't have much confidence that either the Tories or Labour will do much about this or as much as ought to be done. I have, though, much much less confidence in Corbyn precisely because of his past record, because I don't believe that the sensible things he's been saying recently really represent a genuine change of mind and because of who his closest allies are and what they have said and done.
But I also don't think this particular debate will much help the Tories. Whether more police would help or not is moot. But it does feed into an impression that sometimes the Tories know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Good security does not come cheap. If the aid budget can be protected how much more should this apply to the security/police budget?
If I - as an "Anyone But Corbyn" voter - feels like this, can we really be sure that the Tories will win?
I increasingly feel Corbyn might do it. I hope, I really hope, I'm wrong. It will IMO be a moral, political and economic disaster for Britain. But if the last year has taught us anything, it should have taught us that "it should not happen" does not mean "it won't happen".
If I am wrong you can all laugh and jeer at me on Thursday night. If not, I shall be a political seer.
(edit - parts 1 & 2)
The point about being able to protect the overseas aid budget is well made - though I would not use it as justification for reducing this.0 -
See 'Labour could take Canterbury....' for evidence of this.The_Apocalypse said:For the first time in a while the Tory lead among pollsters has actually stabilised - YouGov (even them) showing it as stil being 4 points and ICM as still being 11 points. Labour need a 13 point lead to actually get a majority. Yet you still have PBers in a panic. LOL.
0 -
LOL! That is fabulously funny, whoever did it.Scott_P said:
0 -
PB - Pampers BuyersThe_Apocalypse said:For the first time in a while the Tory lead among pollsters has actually stabilised - YouGov (even them) showing it as stil being 4 points and ICM as still being 11 points. Labour need a 13 point lead to actually get a majority. Yet you still have PBers in a panic. LOL.
0 -
Yes hard to understand the angst in a foregone conclusion election.The_Apocalypse said:For the first time in a while the Tory lead among pollsters has actually stabilised - YouGov (even them) showing it as stil being 4 points and ICM as still being 11 points. Labour need a 13 point lead to actually get a majority. Yet you still have PBers in a panic. LOL.
0 -
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It depends what Ms CF means by "it"?OblitusSumMe said:
Much as I have just recently heaped shit upon opinion polling, they haven't been *that* wrong.Cyclefree said:I increasingly feel Corbyn might do it. I hope, I really hope, I'm wrong. It will IMO be a moral, political and economic disaster for Britain. But if the last year has taught us anything, it should have taught us that "it should not happen" does not mean "it won't happen".
If I am wrong you can all laugh and jeer at me on Thursday night. If not, I shall be a political seer.
Some polls gave Trump a lead in the popular vote, which he lost. The analysis at 538 correctly found that Trump would have an advantage in the Electoral College if the popular vote was close enough. Plenty of polls gave Leave the lead in the British EU membership referendum. Some polls did give the Tories a lead before the 2015 GE.
Though we aren't entirely finished with opinion polls for this GE, the last poll to give Labour a lead was two months prior to the EU referendum (YouGov by 3%). The polling accuracy would have to be even worse this time than previously.
If "it" is deprive Mrs M of her majority, then it isn't impossible. Just because a Youth Tsunami hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't. Hardly anyone expected the flood of non-voting wwc'ers last June, nor the disproportionate turnout of poorer midwestern voters for Trump.
Corbyn winning a majority, well then you are probably right. Unless there is a significant late swing.0 -
Maybe no LibDem candidates in English or Welsh seats wanted Faron visiting them!The_Taxman said:
Poor Tim Farron is having a very bad campaign, you are right of course he should have delegated to the Scottish Lib Dems as Scots have a parochial view about English people interfering in their politics. Doesn't stop the SNP messing around with English politics though!David_Evershed said:
Farron's problem is that he is an Englishman fighting in a Scottish sub-election against a Scotswoman. It be Lib Dem's Scottish leader versus Sturgeon. Poor Lib Dem campaign organising.Pulpstar said:
Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.calum said:Question from Theresa about failure to teach about Barcharts !
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/8716988009514065940 -
LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.Scott_P said:
Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.0 -
The Greens are watermelons. They love a proper Marxist like Jezza.AndyJS said:According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%
0 -
They sample about 20,000 people outside polling stations in various secret locations. Respondents fill in a ballot paper which looks exactly the same as the real one they've just completed in the polling station. They know how people responded in the same locations at the previous election, so it's all done based on the changes from the previous election. I'm not sure whether they ask for people's ages.nunu said:
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?stevef said:Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
0 -
Has the lib dem vote in 2010 that voted tory in 2015 stayed tory post brexit?AndyJS said:According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%
0 -
You need to find somewhere with only one University that's still in term; Lancaster perhaps?midwinter said:
Fair point, was just trying to think of an area where seats declare early with a young population.TudorRose said:
Careful with student votes; at least half university students have broken up for the summer and the remainder are doing exams; not exactly the right mood music for a visit to the polling station.midwinter said:
Newcastle has a lot of students I suppose? But that probably won't be representative of most non university constituencies.jonny83 said:So let's say that youth turnout does increase by quite a lot this election what sort of seats will be showing signs of that first? Any ones in particular to look out for on election night to indicate the youth tsunami might be on?
0 -
Surely you're not sleeping on the job like Theresa May ....Mortimer said:
Yawn.TravelJunkie said:Theresa May as Home Secretary:
-Reduced police numbers by 20000, as well as severely denting morale.
-Stopped control orders.
-Demanded reduction of stop and search.
-Sucks up to the Saudi's, a repressive, Wahhabist dictatorship that funds extremist mosques throughout Europe, and arguably funds ISIS directly.
-Suppresses findings of report into Jihadi funding. Why? Afraid it might upset our 'allies' in the ME?
-Fails to reduce immigration, even from outside the EU where she had controls to.
- Reduces border control staff numbers.
Let's be honest here, had this series of attacks occurred outside of an electoral campaign she'd have had no choice but to step down by now.
Tut tut .... 0 -
Patrick said:
The Greens are watermelons. They love a proper Marxist like Jezza.AndyJS said:According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%
you love a pm that cuts police numbers to fund tax cuts for rich people.0 -
Most of it seems to have done.TravelJunkie said:
Has the lib dem vote in 2010 that voted tory in 2015 stayed tory post brexit?AndyJS said:According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%
0 -
May voted against them.AlsoIndigo said:
Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights ActTravelJunkie said:Theresa May as Home Secretary:
-Stopped control orders.0 -
Actually how do pollsters find former lib dem voters in 2010 that voted tory in 2015 and voted to remain in the eu?0
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One good thing about the election being on Thursday is when it is over we will be rid of the party fanatics like Traveljunkie and back to more reasonable and informed debate instead of sound bites and smears.0
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In Twickenham.TravelJunkie said:Actually how do pollsters find former lib dem voters in 2010 that voted tory in 2015 and voted to remain in the eu?
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