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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not Y

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    sealo0sealo0 Posts: 48
    nunu said:

    C'mon Pb Tories let's mess up YouGov's model.


    Mwahahhahah!

    I don't think they need any help.

    Mike
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He always looks honest. At something of a premium after Boris.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017
    Roger said:

    A letter from Emily Thornberry asking for one final push. One million young people have registered to vote for the first time. With a final pre election contribution they will be able to do a nationwide map of polling stations (I guess that's in case the 1,000,000 new voters can't find their way).

    Thank God they don't do IQ tests!

    What is really needed is a couple of hours of power cut on Thurday evening, then when the TV and the Xboxes stop working, and they cant get online, those students might consider getting off their butts and going to vote ;)

    Without that they will stay on line, forget to vote, and spend the rest of the night in a huge petulant strop on Snapchat and Twitter because the Tories won.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Two people in the last two days have raised the election with me whilst I was chatting to them about something else entirely. One in a cricket score box and one at work

    Both said more or less the same thing - no good parties to vote for this time. Got the impression the first would vote against Corbyn, the second has one child at uni and another in 6th form, said you've got to vote for your own self-interest if there's nothing else to vote for, implying one in the bag for the red team based in tuition fees despite there being clearly no general enthusiasm for Labour otherwise.

    Both people I would have had down as natural tories demographically - white, middle aged men, well-ish off. But who knows.

    Quite surprised and a mild about of bedwetting may occur as a result :-/
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Not pissing away Londoner's money on Boris' vanity projects seems like reason enough for popularity in the first year or so
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,403
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He's not Jeremy Corbyn and he is not Diane Abbott. You want more?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,476
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Assuming Labour stays in opposition, his odds of re-election in London are surely higher than 70%? Winning as a Tory in the capital is becoming harder every year; even Boris only managed it by being gifted past-his-best Ken as an opponent.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Scott_P said:

    @JournoStephen: For a Bolshevik, Corbyn can't even overthrow the government properly. https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/871749088575979521

    Weak and Wobbly Jez? ;)
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    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    Roger said:

    A letter from Emily Thornberry asking for one final push. One million young people have registered to vote for the first time. With a final pre election contribution they will be able to do a nationwide map of polling stations (I guess that's in case the 1,000,000 new voters can't find their way).

    Thank God they don't do IQ tests!

    What is really needed is a couple of hours of power cut on Thurday evening, then when the TV and the Xboxes stop working, and they cant get online, those students might consider getting off their butts and going to vote ;)

    Without that they will stay on line, forget to vote, and spend the rest of the night in a huge petulant strop on Snapchat and Twitter because the Tories won.
    You could be right. We had power cuts during the February 1974 campaign. Worked surprisingly well for Labour.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Theresa May as Home Secretary:
    -Stopped control orders.

    Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act

    As trolls go TravelJunkie seems to be trying to break new records - how about banning him on his first day ???
    Being annoying isn't a bannable offence. :p
    Fortunately for me.
    You are a contributor, it's your job :D
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Theresa May as Home Secretary:
    -Stopped control orders.

    Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act

    May voted against them.
    Quite right too. They were incompatible with the Human Rights Act and unlawful under Article 6 ECHR, not to mention opposed by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, JUSTICE and Liberty. Labour bought forth a complete horlicks of a law and tried to force it through parliament, quite a lot of Labour MPs voted against it!
    Well they will be introduced again very shortly.
    Not unless we leave the ECHR, which we should, but won't.
    Lord Carlille reviewer of terrorism legislation does not agree with you.States that they were justified proportional and used as a last resort.Has slammed the decision of the conservatives to abolish them.
    They might have been, but the High Court disagreed. Which bit of that is hard for you to understand.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/13/humanrights.terrorism

    A high court judge branded the government's system of control orders against terrorism suspects "an affront to justice" yesterday and ruled that they breached human rights laws.

    If the government tries to bring forward similar laws and we are still in the ECHR, they will be struck down for the same reasons, its not that complicated.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Increased knife crime is May's fault. She insisted on ending stop and search against police wishes. No love for either of them tho. There is something about him that is very untrustworthy.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Because he's not Zac Goldsmith. Isn't that enough?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Khan @ 70% and Trump @ 28% are BOTH buys I think.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He is the first Muslim Mayor in a major western city .Also the son of a bus driver . Working class lad made good .
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    EPG said:

    Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive? (Michael Cricks tweet)

    Am i reading too much into this? Why would he be in these seats with 3 days to go?

    Do leaders' visits help local candidates to win?
    Even having Liam Fox in W&L discomforted some Lib Dems
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Because he's not Zac Goldsmith. Isn't that enough?
    What a legendary campaign that was "Sadiq will thieve your jewelry".
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Londoners don't want him to do anything. He can't really anyway and apart from those "brought to you by LondonMayor" signs on the tube most people would be hard pressed to name anything he is in charge of (buses?). Which is as it should be. He was a perfectly blank canvas for London at the time.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    I have just learnt that a fellow employee was one of those attacked and is now in a coma after surgery.

    Puts all the rest in perspective.

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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He is the first Muslim Mayor in a major western city .Also the son of a bus driver . Working class lad made good .
    It's enough for the first six months, I'd have thought. But eventually you have to start doing *something*
    Seant Do you agree with the government abolishing control orders ?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,403
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Theresa May as Home Secretary:
    -Stopped control orders.

    Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act

    May voted against them.
    Quite right too. They were incompatible with the Human Rights Act and unlawful under Article 6 ECHR, not to mention opposed by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, JUSTICE and Liberty. Labour bought forth a complete horlicks of a law and tried to force it through parliament, quite a lot of Labour MPs voted against it!
    Well they will be introduced again very shortly.
    Not unless we leave the ECHR, which we should, but won't.
    Lord Carlille reviewer of terrorism legislation does not agree with you.States that they were justified proportional and used as a last resort.Has slammed the decision of the conservatives to abolish them.
    That would be Liberal Democrat peer Lord Carlille who signed off on those provisions before they were introduced?

    They gave some distinctly unsavoury people a free run through our courts at enormous public expense generating negative publicity and making these sick psychos look persecuted. Giving up on them was an outbreak of sanity.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Increased knife crime is May's fault. She insisted on ending stop and search against police wishes. No love for either of them tho. There is something about him that is very untrustworthy.
    Yeah. Ending stop and search was BOLLOCKS. But I don't see Sadiq clamouring to reintroduce it.
    Ofcourse not, May ended it because of endless harping on from Labour about how it was ethnic profiling by the back door.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2017
    Oh, I wasn't expecting that to work TBH. Not after yesterday.

    I wish to apologise for the flame war in which I was involved yesterday with somebody who shall remain anonymous. I don't wish to dwell on the matter, but suffice it to say I have an abiding personal loathing of bullies, which is what internet trolls are. If this were Twitter I would solve through mute and block, but sadly the mechanism is not available here.

    That aside, no new thoughts. On topic, I'm siding with the punters: I don't see how May doesn't win this election, regardless of the problems with the campaign.

    Still won't be happy until the exit poll comes out though.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He is the first Muslim Mayor in a major western city .Also the son of a bus driver . Working class lad made good .
    It's enough for the first six months, I'd have thought. But eventually you have to start doing *something*
    Yes I agree not living in London do not know as good as you the local issues.
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    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    PaulM said:

    46.4m registered for the 2015 GE so registration only back to what it was before IER, despite population growth.
    Is there population growth of British citizens (who would be eligible) or is it driven by immigration (who might not be eligible) ?
    I expect the majority of it to be based on greater life expectancy, but good Q.
    On a similar tack, those inclined to draw a connection between local and national elections should remember that EU citizens are entitled to vote in the former but not in the latter. I don't know if this would make a difference, but there are reputed to be 3m EU residents here.
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
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    PatrickPatrick Posts: 225

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    Increased knife crime is May's fault. She insisted on ending stop and search against police wishes. No love for either of them tho. There is something about him that is very untrustworthy.
    Yeah. Ending stop and search was BOLLOCKS. But I don't see Sadiq clamouring to reintroduce it.
    Ofcourse not, May ended it because of endless harping on from Labour about how it was ethnic profiling by the back door.
    We're back to the 'racism is worse than stabbing' fallacy.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    46.4m registered for the 2015 GE so registration only back to what it was before IER, despite population growth.
    Could IER be the reason the tories GAINED an overall majority?
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    RobD said:

    Theresa May as Home Secretary:
    -Stopped control orders.

    Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act

    As trolls go TravelJunkie seems to be trying to break new records - how about banning him on his first day ???
    Being annoying isn't a bannable offence. :p
    Fortunately for me.
    Yes but when you are annoying it is often because you have a point.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Jezza in need of a lie down.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/871753145445208064

    Liverpool attacks?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,146
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JournoStephen: For a Bolshevik, Corbyn can't even overthrow the government properly. https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/871749088575979521

    Weak and Wobbly Jez? ;)
    As they go down to vote, Da Yoof are all going to be wearing Jezza Flip-Flops....

    Unless it's raining. In which case, fuck it.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Dover is proper UKIP country. They got 10,000 votes there in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010 while Labour remained stable. Even if Elphicke was in trouble, some of those former UKIP voters will surely be coming to his rescue.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    DavidL said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Theresa May as Home Secretary:
    -Stopped control orders.

    Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act

    May voted against them.
    Quite right too. They were incompatible with the Human Rights Act and unlawful under Article 6 ECHR, not to mention opposed by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, JUSTICE and Liberty. Labour bought forth a complete horlicks of a law and tried to force it through parliament, quite a lot of Labour MPs voted against it!
    Well they will be introduced again very shortly.
    Not unless we leave the ECHR, which we should, but won't.
    Lord Carlille reviewer of terrorism legislation does not agree with you.States that they were justified proportional and used as a last resort.Has slammed the decision of the conservatives to abolish them.
    That would be Liberal Democrat peer Lord Carlille who signed off on those provisions before they were introduced?

    They gave some distinctly unsavoury people a free run through our courts at enormous public expense generating negative publicity and making these sick psychos look persecuted. Giving up on them was an outbreak of sanity.
    I will see if you still agree with them thoughts when they are re introduced by May under a different name.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He is the first Muslim Mayor in a major western city .Also the son of a bus driver . Working class lad made good .
    It's enough for the first six months, I'd have thought. But eventually you have to start doing *something*
    Seant Do you agree with the government abolishing control orders ?
    The control orders were ruled unlawful, will you stop this fake news.

    Here is the case.

    http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Admin/2006/1000.html

    Standing back and looking at the overall picture, there can be only one conclusion. To say that the Act does not give the respondent in this case, against whom a non-derogating control order has been made by the Secretary of State, a fair hearing in the determination of his rights under Article 8 of the Convention would be an understatement. The court would be failing in its duty under the 1998 Act, a duty imposed upon the court by Parliament, if it did not say, loud and clear, that the procedure under the Act whereby the court merely reviews the lawfulness of the Secretary of State's decision to make the order upon the basis of the material available to him at that earlier stage are conspicuously unfair. The thin veneer of legality which is sought to be applied by section 3 of the Act cannot disguise the reality. That controlees' rights under the Convention are being determined not by an independent court in compliance with Article 6.1, but by executive decision-making, untrammelled by any prospect of effective judicial supervision.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,403
    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza in need of a lie down.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/871753145445208064

    Liverpool attacks?

    Has he had a tip off?
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Don't think the candidate makes much difference if the swing is big enough tbh. However I'd imagine Dover unlikely to be a beacon for a pro immigration party somehow.
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    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He is the first Muslim Mayor in a major western city .Also the son of a bus driver . Working class lad made good .
    It's enough for the first six months, I'd have thought. But eventually you have to start doing *something*
    "What is to be done?" As a Londoner, what changes would you like that fall within the Mayor's remit? All I can remember about Boris's 8-year stint is (a) he kept Ken and his mates out of office and (b) he introduced a network of clunky bicycles that still bear his name. If Khan goes 4 years without causing any damage it will be enough to secure re-election, though by then he may be needed elsewhere.
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    Oh, I wasn't expecting that to work TBH. Not after yesterday.

    I wish to apologise for the flame war in which I was involved yesterday with somebody who shall remain anonymous. I don't wish to dwell on the matter, but suffice it to say I have an abiding personal loathing of bullies, which is what internet trolls are. If this were Twitter I would solve through mute and block, but sadly the mechanism is not available here.

    That aside, no new thoughts. On topic, I'm siding with the punters: I don't see how May doesn't win this election, regardless of the problems with the campaign.

    Still won't be happy until the exit poll comes out though.

    It's not being done by PooGov, is it? If so - disregard.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2017
    nunu said:

    46.4m registered for the 2015 GE so registration only back to what it was before IER, despite population growth.
    Could IER be the reason the tories GAINED an overall majority?
    No because the transition to the IER register occurred in December 2015.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    With a turnout of 68% the Tories would need around 44% to beat John Major's record in 1992 for most votes ever recorded at a GE.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    Dover -20% ukip

    Hasting and Rye -13% ukip

    Canterbury-14% ukip.

    All lean labour? Clearly that is a bug of the model showing some funny results. Or they have not accounted for the collapse of the ukio vote properly.

    Do they have any going the other way? Like suprising Tory leans?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Miss Cyclefree, I hope your colleague is ok.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    IanB2 said:

    That's a higher conversion of applications to registrations than we saw in 2015. Which suggests a lot of the "I have no idea whether I am registered already" duplicate applications found out the answer last year.
    what's the +/- on 2015 though
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He is the first Muslim Mayor in a major western city .Also the son of a bus driver . Working class lad made good .
    It's enough for the first six months, I'd have thought. But eventually you have to start doing *something*
    "What is to be done?" As a Londoner, what changes would you like that fall within the Mayor's remit? All I can remember about Boris's 8-year stint is (a) he kept Ken and his mates out of office and (b) he introduced a network of clunky bicycles that still bear his name. If Khan goes 4 years without causing any damage it will be enough to secure re-election, though by then he may be needed elsewhere.
    Ambassador to the US?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    I have just learnt that a fellow employee was one of those attacked and is now in a coma after surgery.

    Puts all the rest in perspective.

    It does indeed. I hope your colleague makes a good and speedy recovery.

    In such emergencies, the NHS shines. I found that out for myself last year.
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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198

    ... I wish to apologise for the flame war in which I was involved yesterday...

    Bad Day at Black Rook
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Dover is proper UKIP country. They got 10,000 votes there in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010 while Labour remained stable. Even if Elphicke was in trouble, some of those former UKIP voters will surely be coming to his rescue.
    Correct, the UKIP candidate this time hasn't bothered to visit the constituency, kippers won't be voting for young Stacey. For a polling company to call it "leaning Labour" is ridiculous, I had lunch with Elphicke and he's confident of an increased majority.

    As I said I have no idea how they're arriving at this conclusion but it makes even more certain of a huge Conservative win.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BigIan said:
    It's been a long campaign for everyone.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    With a turnout of 68% the Tories would need around 44% to beat John Major's record in 1992 for most votes ever recorded at a GE.
    ooohhh....it's gonna be close! That's it I will have to vote Tory just to help break the record. Not that May deserves it ofcourse.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza in need of a lie down.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/871753145445208064

    Liverpool attacks?

    Has he had a tip off?
    Corbyn is a rank nasty disgusting evil barsteward of the highest order. Not fit to lace the shoelaces of Roy Mason although he does see fit to lick Gerry Adams' arse.
    What an odious pile of rancid vomit that man is.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    TMA1 said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza in need of a lie down.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/871753145445208064

    Liverpool attacks?

    Has he had a tip off?
    Corbyn is a rank nasty disgusting evil barsteward of the highest order. Not fit to lace the shoelaces of Roy Mason although he does see fit to lick Gerry Adams' arse.
    What an odious pile of rancid vomit that man is.
    Putting you down as a maybe in the Labour column.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,403
    TMA1 said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza in need of a lie down.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/871753145445208064

    Liverpool attacks?

    Has he had a tip off?
    Corbyn is a rank nasty disgusting evil barsteward of the highest order. Not fit to lace the shoelaces of Roy Mason although he does see fit to lick Gerry Adams' arse.
    What an odious pile of rancid vomit that man is.
    Somewhat understated but he does have better connections with these scum than any civilised person should.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Theresa May is 1.21 on Betfair to be next PM. Even if the Yougov is correct and Labour are running close in Canterbury, High Peak & Pudsey that still looks huge to me. I've gone back in :E
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why is Sadiq popular? H's done F all except preside over increased knife crime and cancelled a bridge.

    Genuine confuzzled. He seems like an empty space to me, and not even charismatic in that Boris way. Answers welcome.
    He is the first Muslim Mayor in a major western city .Also the son of a bus driver . Working class lad made good .
    It's enough for the first six months, I'd have thought. But eventually you have to start doing *something*
    Seant Do you agree with the government abolishing control orders ?
    The control orders were ruled unlawful, will you stop this fake news.

    Here is the case.

    http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Admin/2006/1000.html

    Standing back and looking at the overall picture, there can be only one conclusion. To say that the Act does not give the respondent in this case, against whom a non-derogating control order has been made by the Secretary of State, a fair hearing in the determination of his rights under Article 8 of the Convention would be an understatement. The court would be failing in its duty under the 1998 Act, a duty imposed upon the court by Parliament, if it did not say, loud and clear, that the procedure under the Act whereby the court merely reviews the lawfulness of the Secretary of State's decision to make the order upon the basis of the material available to him at that earlier stage are conspicuously unfair. The thin veneer of legality which is sought to be applied by section 3 of the Act cannot disguise the reality. That controlees' rights under the Convention are being determined not by an independent court in compliance with Article 6.1, but by executive decision-making, untrammelled by any prospect of effective judicial supervision.
    Hardly fake the conservatives did abolish them through parliament.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    BigIan said:

    ... I wish to apologise for the flame war in which I was involved yesterday...

    Bad Day at Black Rook
    Yeah, pretty much :-(

    Oh, I wasn't expecting that to work TBH. Not after yesterday.

    I wish to apologise for the flame war in which I was involved yesterday with somebody who shall remain anonymous. I don't wish to dwell on the matter, but suffice it to say I have an abiding personal loathing of bullies, which is what internet trolls are. If this were Twitter I would solve through mute and block, but sadly the mechanism is not available here.

    That aside, no new thoughts. On topic, I'm siding with the punters: I don't see how May doesn't win this election, regardless of the problems with the campaign.

    Still won't be happy until the exit poll comes out though.

    It's not being done by PooGov, is it? If so - disregard.
    I can't remember the details of all involved, but I'm pretty sure that this exit poll is being done by Ipsos Mori and that John Curtice is somehow involved as well, just like last time.

    The exit polls have been reasonable accurate in each of the past several elections.

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JournoStephen: For a Bolshevik, Corbyn can't even overthrow the government properly. https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/871749088575979521

    Weak and Wobbly Jez? ;)
    As they go down to vote, Da Yoof are all going to be wearing Jezza Flip-Flops....

    Unless it's raining. In which case, fuck it.
    Ah, the weather-turnout relationship... Well, it's a bit early to tell but it looks as though it might be peeing down on Thursday in the North and in Wales. +5 seats to the Tories?

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    +1
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Dover is proper UKIP country. They got 10,000 votes there in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010 while Labour remained stable. Even if Elphicke was in trouble, some of those former UKIP voters will surely be coming to his rescue.
    I have campaigned for Charlie

    There is NO WAY he is going to loose this seat.,

    And i am happy to take bets from those who think he :)
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Peter Salliss passes away peacefully at the ripe old age of 96
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited June 2017

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    That is great, show it is still a vocation for many.

    @SouthamObserver was correct at the time of the attack I reckon, Saturday Night at Borough Mkt is one of the quietest times of the week there. For one thing the market is closed, and secondly the city crowd are not about. The Wheatsheaf and Brindisa will still be packed, but they always are. Strange timing really
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    NOM has come in to 5.4 and Lab maj in to 27. Con maj has drifted out to 1.28.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have just learnt that a fellow employee was one of those attacked and is now in a coma after surgery.

    Puts all the rest in perspective.

    This attack came close to more Londoners than most. I'm not sure why. Perhaps because Borough Market is so quintessential to modern, exciting London - and also the Shard. And it's near to lots of newspaper and media offices, so the journalism was immediate?

    I was in the Market with my daughter the day the attack happened, in the very same bakery where some people took shelter, and we stood outside the restaurant that got shot up hours later.

    My best female friend was there that night, and had to run and hide.

    I've got other friends and acquaintances with similar stories

    This one really hit home. I hope your colleague recovers.
    I think that it's because almost everyone that visits or lives in London has done Borough Market and/or the Shard. For some reason this attack has made everything feel a lot more 'real' for me than any other in the past decade since 7/7.

    Whereas I can't place myself at an Ariana Grande concert, or walking on the streets outside Westminster at midday. Borough Market on a Saturday night? Most of us have done that, and it could have been us.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,403

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    That is indeed truly humbling. (Mental note not to complain about doctors' pensions for at least 6 months).
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Cyan said:

    NOM has come in to 5.4 and Lab maj in to 27. Con maj has drifted out to 1.28.

    How liquid is it all the way out there at 27?
  • Options
    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    Pulpstar said:

    Theresa May is 1.21 on Betfair to be next PM. Even if the Yougov is correct and Labour are running close in Canterbury, High Peak & Pudsey that still looks huge to me. I've gone back in :E

    Con Majority has drifted out to 1.28 as well, if you fancy some of that.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited June 2017
    BigIan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Theresa May is 1.21 on Betfair to be next PM. Even if the Yougov is correct and Labour are running close in Canterbury, High Peak & Pudsey that still looks huge to me. I've gone back in :E

    Con Majority has drifted out to 1.28 as well, if you fancy some of that.
    May PM has more margin. All the derivatives are crazily priced right now. Pick your bet.
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JournoStephen: For a Bolshevik, Corbyn can't even overthrow the government properly. https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/871749088575979521

    Weak and Wobbly Jez? ;)
    He is a nasty disgusting barsteward. To put it mildly.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Dover is proper UKIP country. They got 10,000 votes there in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010 while Labour remained stable. Even if Elphicke was in trouble, some of those former UKIP voters will surely be coming to his rescue.
    I have campaigned for Charlie

    There is NO WAY he is going to loose this seat.,

    And i am happy to take bets from those who think he :)
    Ah but Dover is "leaning Labour".

    1 or 2 pollsters could easily go out of business I'm afraid.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    BigIan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Theresa May is 1.21 on Betfair to be next PM. Even if the Yougov is correct and Labour are running close in Canterbury, High Peak & Pudsey that still looks huge to me. I've gone back in :E

    Con Majority has drifted out to 1.28 as well, if you fancy some of that.
    That is completely amazing
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    Peter Salliss passes away peacefully at the ripe old age of 96

    I loved Last of the Summer Wine. Sad news, but a good innings.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    I'm completely split on how this election will go, firstly I seem to be seeing signs of the Con core slowly falling apart, but this is mostly in the safe shires, so if the polls are right then the Con majority should be greater than polls indicate. On the other hand, polls have massive weightings applied for shy Tories, what if there aren't as many as before? In which case gains could be an awful lot more limited.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017
    Yorkcity said:


    Hardly fake the conservatives did abolish them through parliament.

    Christ on a bike.

    The Court ruled them to be incompatible with the HRA and the ECHR, after which the government could not use the law without every case being challenged in Brussells and Strasbourg, the court cannot actually disapply the law though, that has to be done by parliament and so it was.

    The new TPIM order (which I will agree is far too feeble) is the absolute most the government could pass and not be ruled incompatible with the ECHR and the HRA. If the government tries to do the same again, they will be ruled against again.

    The answer is to amend the HRA, and to resile from the ECHR, which we will have to do anyway if we want to control our borders from arriving terrorists, because of the way Article 5 is being interpreted by the courts. Labour will oppose both.
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    Barnesian said:

    nunu said:

    TudorRose said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...

    Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.
    But why bother? This seat is going red no matter what. We've not even had any Lib Dem or Tory literature. Nothing at all!
    Labour are probably worried about a potential swing to the Tories in Northumberland and Teeside, perhaps Gateshead is the most obvious place to hold a rally for those areas.
    Quite. I suspect this has more to do with Darlington and Bishop Auckland than Gateshead.
    or maybe we should ignore where corbyn goes as he only meets with hoades of adoring fans anyway.
    Very like Trump.

    Edit ... and look where that got him.
    ... a loser on the national vote turnout.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Incidentally, if someone needed a proxy vote at short notice, is it easy/hard to get?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
    That interview was very humbling.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    TMA1 said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza in need of a lie down.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/871753145445208064

    Liverpool attacks?

    Has he had a tip off?
    Corbyn is a rank nasty disgusting evil barsteward of the highest order. Not fit to lace the shoelaces of Roy Mason although he does see fit to lick Gerry Adams' arse.
    What an odious pile of rancid vomit that man is.
    But will you be voting for him or not?
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
    If anywhere in Brum, there.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
    Not as symbolic though.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,403

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Dover is proper UKIP country. They got 10,000 votes there in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010 while Labour remained stable. Even if Elphicke was in trouble, some of those former UKIP voters will surely be coming to his rescue.
    I have campaigned for Charlie

    There is NO WAY he is going to loose this seat.,

    And i am happy to take bets from those who think he :)
    Ah but Dover is "leaning Labour".

    1 or 2 pollsters could easily go out of business I'm afraid.
    The weird thing is that they just walk away from this nonsense. And then produce more. Which is listened to. The only ones I can recall disappearing were that Canadian bunch who did an election (maybe 2015?) and then gave up.
  • Options
    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Is it too early to nominate @The_Apocalypse as poster of the year? Open-minded, sticks up for herself but prepared to take on board different views? And of course outside the standard PB demographic.
  • Options
    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
    Yokal said something the other night about joining these dots.
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225

    RobD said:

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick

    Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?

    A good question Mr Crick.

    Beat me to it! But very odd..
    Simples. When the campaign started we were 20%+ behind in the polls. Which meant we were on track to lose places like Hartlepool to the Tories.
    Labour haven't changed their plans since then?
    I think that Gordon Brown visited mostly Safe Labour or Semi- marginal seats from 2005 in the GE in 2010. I think they did this because outside of Labour, Brown was very unpopular. I suspect the same might be true with Corbyn. The left love him but anyone who is anything other than Labour are not well disposed to him. That is 70% of the population in all probability!
    My memory is that Brown and Blair went round campaigning together with Bown as Blairs human shield as he was so unpopular with the labour faithful. They kept buying each othe ice creams as I recall to show that they really likedveach other.
    Oh how we laughed.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    pbr2013 said:

    Is it too early to nominate @The_Apocalypse as poster of the year? Open-minded, sticks up for herself but prepared to take on board different views? And of course outside the standard PB demographic.

    Wow....Thanks! :)

    I think there are many other posters on here more deserving of that title though, I don't think my posts are that insightful.

  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Dover is proper UKIP country. They got 10,000 votes there in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010 while Labour remained stable. Even if Elphicke was in trouble, some of those former UKIP voters will surely be coming to his rescue.
    I have campaigned for Charlie

    There is NO WAY he is going to loose this seat.,

    And i am happy to take bets from those who think he :)
    Ah but Dover is "leaning Labour".

    1 or 2 pollsters could easily go out of business I'm afraid.
    The weird thing is that they just walk away from this nonsense. And then produce more. Which is listened to. The only ones I can recall disappearing were that Canadian bunch who did an election (maybe 2015?) and then gave up.
    'Conservatives on course for majority the same size as two weeks ago' does not sell nearly as well as 'Tory lead COLLAPSES', 'CORBYN on course for SHOCK TRIUMPH'.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, who's done that? If I were to guess I'd say it's The Sun.

    Given that the cliffs are around 100m/350' high, that's at least a 100' tall, umm, erection.
    Dover is another seat in Kent YouGov are giving a "leaning Labour" flavour to, but not by as much as Canterbury.

    This tells me that the polling is just plain wrong. The Labour candidate is in her 20s, miles out of her depth, Elphicke is best price 1/200 to win.

    No idea how or why but they are massively overstating Labour's chances.
    Dover is proper UKIP country. They got 10,000 votes there in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010 while Labour remained stable. Even if Elphicke was in trouble, some of those former UKIP voters will surely be coming to his rescue.
    I have campaigned for Charlie

    There is NO WAY he is going to loose this seat.,

    And i am happy to take bets from those who think he :)
    Ah but Dover is "leaning Labour".

    1 or 2 pollsters could easily go out of business I'm afraid.
    The weird thing is that they just walk away from this nonsense. And then produce more. Which is listened to. The only ones I can recall disappearing were that Canadian bunch who did an election (maybe 2015?) and then gave up.
    I'm genuinely puzzled, to call a seat where the tory is 1/200 "leading Labour" is unfathomable. It convinces me their entire MO is flawed in some way.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:



    I think it could be the other way around. The Democrats will likely take the House next year, get overconfident and pick a left liberal like Warren who Trump will beat having been forced to the centre.

    In London Alan Sugar loathes Khan judging by his Twitter feed and having endorsed May in this general election might be tempted to run in the Tory primary, he would certainly have a better chance of beating Khan than Goldsmith did
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
    Do you work at MI5 ?

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Chameleon said:

    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have just learnt that a fellow employee was one of those attacked and is now in a coma after surgery.

    Puts all the rest in perspective.

    This attack came close to more Londoners than most. I'm not sure why. Perhaps because Borough Market is so quintessential to modern, exciting London - and also the Shard. And it's near to lots of newspaper and media offices, so the journalism was immediate?

    I was in the Market with my daughter the day the attack happened, in the very same bakery where some people took shelter, and we stood outside the restaurant that got shot up hours later.

    My best female friend was there that night, and had to run and hide.

    I've got other friends and acquaintances with similar stories

    This one really hit home. I hope your colleague recovers.
    I think that it's because almost everyone that visits or lives in London has done Borough Market and/or the Shard. For some reason this attack has made everything feel a lot more 'real' for me than any other in the past decade since 7/7.

    Whereas I can't place myself at an Ariana Grande concert, or walking on the streets outside Westminster at midday. Borough Market on a Saturday night? Most of us have done that, and it could have been us.
    I cannot imagine myself at an Ariana Grande concert but I have dropped children off at concerts and gone to some with them. So that felt real too. There was something especially cruel about targeting excited youngsters at that age when they are children but on the brink of turning a little bit adult and beginning to do adult things - trying on make up but still (secretly) keen on teddies - and their parents, wanting them to enjoy themselves but not yet able to let them go by themselves. Such a precious time.

    Anywhere, any time, any one of us.

    Still, fuck'em. They're scumbags. We've survived and beaten other losers. We'll survive and beat this latest lot too.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Chameleon said:

    I'm completely split on how this election will go, firstly I seem to be seeing signs of the Con core slowly falling apart, but this is mostly in the safe shires, so if the polls are right then the Con majority should be greater than polls indicate. On the other hand, polls have massive weightings applied for shy Tories, what if there aren't as many as before? In which case gains could be an awful lot more limited.

    There may be a lot of potential for the Shy Tory Problem to rear its ugly head again this time. Remember, the Conservatives are looking for gains in traditional Labour areas - in the Midlands, and especially up North - where there is a long cultural Labour tradition, and people can feel very embarrassed about owning up to their intention to vote Tory.

    Doubts? Read this:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-voters-fear-friends-and-family-will-disown-them-for-switching-to-tories-huffpost-edelman-focus-group_uk_59205461e4b03b485cb1e86b

    It's absolutely extraordinary. Some of these people sound as if they're confessing to a crime.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Cyclefree said:

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
    That interview was very humbling.
    what is C7 and C21?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,403
    calum said:
    Presumably she meant IT? I get to pay a little more for the privilege of trying to run a business in Scotland than I would in England now.

    This campaign really can't come to an end soon enough.
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    pbr2013 said:

    Is it too early to nominate @The_Apocalypse as poster of the year? Open-minded, sticks up for herself but prepared to take on board different views? And of course outside the standard PB demographic.

    Wow....Thanks! :)

    I think there are many other posters on here more deserving of that title though, I don't think my posts are that insightful.

    You are welcome. Don't put yourself down.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html

    This bit leapt out to me:

    "Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.

    He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.

    “People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."

    The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.

    consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is next

    - large muslim population
    - disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
    - all attacks have been started by locals

    the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target
    Do you work at MI5 ?

    do you work in Birmingham ?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    pbr2013 said:

    Is it too early to nominate @The_Apocalypse as poster of the year? Open-minded, sticks up for herself but prepared to take on board different views? And of course outside the standard PB demographic.

    Between her and @RochdalePioneers.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    jonny83 said:

    Peter Salliss passes away peacefully at the ripe old age of 96

    I loved Last of the Summer Wine. Sad news, but a good innings.
    Oh no. He will forever be Wallace from Wallace and Gromit. For me anyway. The number of times our family has watched those films...... masterpieces each and every one though The Wrong Trousers still edges it for me.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,146

    Peter Salliss passes away peacefully at the ripe old age of 96

    Cracking life, Gromit.

    RIP
This discussion has been closed.