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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation
Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017.
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https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/871707140406292480
Third after the cloned TSE is disqualified!
Just because the media and commentators say something doesn't make it true...
As I noted on the previous thread that sub-optimal facebook video for Mrs May on police numbers/terrorism has over 5 million views in 24 hours.
She needs to get on the front foot.
Though I preferred the gold old days when only the BNP and UKIP exploited terrorist attacks for political motives and not the major parties.
She isn't. Corbyn is lying through his teeth. His supporters are lapping it up. Some elements of the media are making a story out of it.
"No" and "No"
CON 45%
LAB 28%
Furthermore, I don't think how someone is presented in media during an election campaign is the best guide to how he/she will be at behind closed doors, face to face negotiations
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.
This does mean either that the YG model won't update tomorrow morning or, if it does, it won't include all of the post-London survey data, which I assume will feed into the results for the Wednesday (and final?) update.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/871708338861506560
Finally, I can get a younger version
I expect that'll be where we find it happens, the rest being a lot of piss and wind.
Divorcees 4 Corbyn?
That is, to put it mildly, not a view shared locally. In fact, Hastings Conservatives have been helping in other seats.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.
The Sun and Mail maybe do not have the same clout as they once did.
There's still some optimism though. Once Brexit negotiations start I think the narrative will change, particularly if the economy struggles and Labour divisions open up.
Inflation rises are bound to put the pinch on family budgets so assuming the Tories win it will be a rocky period ahead. If the Lib Dems can hang on to around 10 seats the prospects are there for a brighter future...but that's a mighty big "if".
It just depends on how well they'll do in getting the vote out in the target seats - non target seat members are being told basically to abandon their own campaigns and get over to their nearest winnable seat.
2. Neither of the Canterbury Unis are probably as Labour as some other Unis
3. Incumbency bonus
4. 7,000 UKIP votes to squeeze
5. 2001 had the Tories at their lowest ebb and not polling 45%
6. Canterbury and Whistable (narrowly) voted leave
If Labour win that then Corbyn will be PM with a nice majority.
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.
'Should be' does not mean 'will' of course.
I do think that Corbyn's pivots and careful presentation of potentially awkward topics does the lie to that he is not like other politicians in terms of spin. He has become quite professional in this campaign, for better and worse.
imagine the outrage of yourself had a labour prime minister cut 20,000 police officers and oversaw 3 terrorist attacks in 3 months..
Maybe, but they do have a massive readership, and reach parts the Mirror or the Guardian could only ever dream about.
Let's put it this way - Corbyn would much rather they were on his side rather than the Tories, although he would never admit to that publically.
They will go for this throat in the next few days.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The 4Cc ball was on Friday and likewise numbers are dropping off.
even If the election was last week i would still say a strong hold but majority will be interesting.
My point about the Lib Dems on the last thread related to the Council elections-they are quite strong locally and building back up-i dont see their vote collapsing and going to Labour.
So the mid-point of these two approaches is Tory 43.5% v Labour 36.5%. Which is my best guess right now, pending any late swing from the London incident and its aftermath. I reckon this puts the Tories on about 350 seats (allowing for a bit of favourable regional swings) and a majority of 50.
TMay increased the task force that looks at terrorists.
Whereas...
* McDonnell thanked terrorists for their bombs and bullets.
* Abbott wanted to disband the security services.
* Corbyn doesn't want shoot-to-kill police.
Country first => Conservative vote (in this election).
If Labour win in Canterbury they'd be on their way to forming a minority....
Before you continue your pathetic smears on Philip May, I'd suggest you understand the difference between Capital Group and Capital International, as well as understanding the nature of KSA regulations on joint ventures and Mr May's actual role at Capital...
And which of the parties think it isn't total bollocks?
If the Youth of this country were holding mass Obama style rallies across the country backing Labour and Corbyn then I would have to buy into it.
But we aren't so I just can't see it, we would be seeing a lot more signs of it if it was on the cards, more than just polling found by these companies.
Based on their latest numbers, YouGov have the Tories at a mid-range forecast of 306 seats, which is approximately 75 seats behind a total of around 380 seats, implied by ICM's latest poll.
Never in the history of British General Election polling has there been such a divergence between two major and respected polling firms with just three days to go before the big day.
It's surely too late now for serious herding, we're looking at blood-letting here on a very serious scale with major reputations being laid bare.
Jez possumus.
Well, well, well
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/corbyn-mcdonnell-abbott-voted-to-allow-isis-fighters-to-return-to-britain/
Full list of who voted what
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2014-05-07&number=266&display=allvotes&sort=name
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/871714623866667008
Vale of Clwyd 99%
Gower Wales 98%
Cardiff North Wales 86%
Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81%
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76%
Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53%
Clwyd West Wales 53% Con
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC
Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
Still, if you use expressions such as 'the wife' perhaps you are much older.
My predictions are always a bit iffy but I reckon:
Cons - 47%
Lab - 32%
Libs - 9%
UKIP - 5%
I think Corbyn will pip Miliband on the popular vote, but his votes will pile up in safe areas. He'll struggle in the marginals.
Tories will get their vote out, albeit reluctantly among some.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?