One good thing about the election being on Thursday is when it is over we will be rid of the party fanatics like Traveljunkie and back to more reasonable and informed debate instead of sound bites and smears.
I kind of miss 619 telling us all how awesome Clinton was.
According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%
The Greens are watermelons. They love a proper Marxist like Jezza.
you love a pm that cuts police numbers to fund tax cuts for rich people.
I'm not a May fan. I want her to be re-elected and to see us through a proper Brexit - but beyond that she's not my cup of tea. Too statist. I want a free marketeer running the country.
Oh...and rich people's taxes have gone up alot, including losing all their personal allowance. Repeating Jezza's mantras doesn't make them true. Look at the charts of tax impact per decile.
One good thing about the election being on Thursday is when it is over we will be rid of the party fanatics like Traveljunkie and back to more reasonable and informed debate instead of sound bites and smears.
Yep we can revert to discussions about the nuances of droit de suite and our approach to it once we leave the EU.
According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%
Has the lib dem vote in 2010 that voted tory in 2015 stayed tory post brexit?
Most of it seems to have done.
Well, when the alternative for your vote is Tim Farron - and at the risk of getting Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn - it was always going to stay loyal.
For the first time in a while the Tory lead among pollsters has actually stabilised - YouGov (even them) showing it as stil being 4 points and ICM as still being 11 points. Labour need a 13 point lead to actually get a majority. Yet you still have PBers in a panic. LOL.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?
They adjust the female replies by adding 10 years ....
Theresa May as Home Secretary: -Stopped control orders.
Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act
May voted against them.
Quite right too. They were incompatible with the Human Rights Act and unlawful under Article 6 ECHR, not to mention opposed by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, JUSTICE and Liberty. Labour bought forth a complete horlicks of a law and tried to force it through parliament, quite a lot of Labour MPs voted against it!
FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.
But why bother? This seat is going red no matter what. We've not even had any Lib Dem or Tory literature. Nothing at all!
Labour are probably worried about a potential swing to the Tories in Northumberland and Teeside, perhaps Gateshead is the most obvious place to hold a rally for those areas.
Quite. I suspect this has more to do with Darlington and Bishop Auckland than Gateshead.
or maybe we should ignore where corbyn goes as he only meets with hoades of adoring fans anyway.
the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.
No, Kippers are going to pour out and vote for Jeremy 'open the borders and let them all in" Corbyn......
I don't talk to traitors. (scum who put their party first country second). People who live in essex put their country people in places like berkshire, devon put themselves first. Traitors to the state.
Go outside and knock on strangers doors and scare them with the IRA.
Jeremy Corbyn's Garden Tax is way more effective.....
It spooked a few on here, but I've not heard that one mentioned at all in real life - if someone hears about it for the first time and believes the most negative interpretation, I could see it being effective, but I wonder how much it is coming through.
It was the front page of early editions of the Telegraph on Sunday, and would have dominated the morning shows if it hadn't been overtaken by the tragic events in London.
Rather like Labour's surprise announcement that they intend to cut VAT (perhaps they thought their financial plans insufficiently incredible) - which has had even less discussion since.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?
They adjust the female replies by adding 10 years ....
Ducks for cover .....
And reduce yours by ten out of sheer incredulity ? (Ducks similarly...)
In 2015, the government announced that overall police budgets would be protected. This meant the amount of money the police receive from the government would increase each year in line with inflation for the following five years.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?
They adjust the female replies by adding 10 years ....
Ducks for cover .....
Says a man who has always been 100% honest about his age!
One good thing about the election being on Thursday is when it is over we will be rid of the party fanatics like Traveljunkie and back to more reasonable and informed debate instead of sound bites and smears.
Yep we can revert to discussions about the nuances of droit de suite and our approach to it once we leave the EU.
Oh yes. Serious topics for refined ladies and gentlemen
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
The exit poll is real samples at real polling stations.
I assume they will be able to determine the age of the people they interview...
Yes, although they will still need to get the relative proportions right. That said, they've been bloody good in the last two elections.
Give me your hungry, your tired your poor I'll piss on 'em that's what the Statue of Bigotry says Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death and get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard
PB Tories might be smelling of urine at the moment, but what the PB Lefties smell of is fear, the level of fake news, selective quoting and partisan ramping has gone through the roof in the last couple of days. Strange we never seem to see any rightwing astoturfers!
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive? (Michael Cricks tweet)
Am i reading too much into this? Why would he be in these seats with 3 days to go?
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive? (Michael Cricks tweet)
Am i reading too much into this? Why would he be in these seats with 3 days to go?
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive? (Michael Cricks tweet)
Am i reading too much into this? Why would he be in these seats with 3 days to go?
I think we all know why, and the bed wetters on here should connect the dots....
Theresa May as Home Secretary: -Stopped control orders.
Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act
May voted against them.
Quite right too. They were incompatible with the Human Rights Act and unlawful under Article 6 ECHR, not to mention opposed by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, JUSTICE and Liberty. Labour bought forth a complete horlicks of a law and tried to force it through parliament, quite a lot of Labour MPs voted against it!
Quite a few Scottish seats are now SNP-Lib Dem marginals, so this head to head is not as useless as it looks.
Farron's problem is that he is an Englishman fighting in a Scottish sub-election against a Scotswoman. It be Lib Dem's Scottish leader versus Sturgeon. Poor Lib Dem campaign organising.
Poor Tim Farron is having a very bad campaign, you are right of course he should have delegated to the Scottish Lib Dems as Scots have a parochial view about English people interfering in their politics. Doesn't stop the SNP messing around with English politics though!
Maybe no LibDem candidates in English or Welsh seats wanted Faron visiting them!
Indeed, maybe he would be better going around his own seat. The number of Lib Dems might fall down enough to count them on one hand!
PB Tories might be smelling of urine at the moment, but what the PB Lefties smell of is fear, the level of fake news, selective quoting and partisan ramping has gone through the roof in the last couple of days.
Yep. Their man peaked too soon, faltered on QT, and now the election is being fought on his weakest area.
Anecdote: a friend of a relative is the campaign manager for the Labour candidate in one of the Plymouth seats. Earlier in the campaign he was expecting a 10k majority for the Tories thanks to the kippers decamping en masse. More recently he was confident enough to place some bets on his man at odds which have since shortened considerably.
I'm hearing that third hand, so take with a pinch of salt.
I would be surprised if Labour don't take Sutton & Devonport (which is the seat with the male Labour candidate). It's a natural Labour seat which is now swimming in students, very few of whom will live in Moor View as it's at least a 15 minute (gasp!) bus ride from the Uni.
You can still get comparatively decent odds on Labour winning Sutton & Devonport.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
The exit poll is real samples at real polling stations.
I assume they will be able to determine the age of the people they interview...
Yes, although they will still need to get the relative proportions right. That said, they've been bloody good in the last two elections.
If votes shift in ways which are different from previous elections (which seems at least possible), then they might be sampling the wrong seats. For that reason, the forecast might be less accurate this time.
Theresa May as Home Secretary: -Stopped control orders.
Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act
May voted against them.
Quite right too. They were incompatible with the Human Rights Act and unlawful under Article 6 ECHR, not to mention opposed by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, JUSTICE and Liberty. Labour bought forth a complete horlicks of a law and tried to force it through parliament, quite a lot of Labour MPs voted against it!
Well they will be introduced again very shortly.
Not unless we leave the ECHR, which we should, but won't.
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
You are presuming that where they send Jahadi Jez is carefully targeted in regards to seats. So far he has spent crazy number of hours in ultra safe Tory seats, but ones where they have managed to whip up a Moamentum crowd to worship the messiahs every word.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?
They adjust the female replies by adding 10 years ....
Ducks for cover .....
And reduce yours by ten out of sheer incredulity ? (Ducks similarly...)
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive? (Michael Cricks tweet)
Am i reading too much into this? Why would he be in these seats with 3 days to go?
Because the local elections showed enormous swings to the Tories in Northumberland, possibly big enough to wipe out two safe Labour seats. There's also Cleveland with Stockton North, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough South.
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
You are presuming that where they send Jahadi Jez is carefully targeted in regards to seats. So far he has spent crazy number of hours in ultra safe Tory seats, but ones where they have managed to whip up a Moamentum crowd to worship the messiahs every word.
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
This assumes that Corbyn's plan is to campaign in seats which are in the balance, which I'm not sure is a safe assumption. It seems to me that he's more interested in campaigning in seats where there are lots of Labour supporters, so that he looks better on the evening news.
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
You are presuming that where they send Jahadi Jez is carefully targeted in regards to seats. So far he has spent crazy number of hours in ultra safe Tory seats, but ones where they have managed to whip up a Moamentum crowd to worship the messiahs every word.
Exactly this! Corbyn has stayed in safe spaces. May has actually been visiting people on the door steps and in work places. Thats why she has had embarrassing encounters.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?
They adjust the female replies by adding 10 years ....
Ducks for cover .....
And reduce yours by ten out of sheer incredulity ? (Ducks similarly...)
Only ten ?!? ...
I could be out by one order of magnitude, of course.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?
They adjust the female replies by adding 10 years ....
Ducks for cover .....
Says a man who has always been 100% honest about his age!
I would point out that the LibDems did poorly in East Dunbartonshire in both the local elections last month, and in the Scottish Holyrood elections.
If they do win it, it will be entirely on the back of Jo Swinson.
Compare and contrast with the LD performances at Holyrood in Edinburgh West (LDs +14.1%), NE Fife (+15.4%), Caithness Sutherland and Ross (+8.8%), and Argyll & Bute (+13.6%).
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
You are presuming that where they send Jahadi Jez is carefully targeted in regards to seats. So far he has spent crazy number of hours in ultra safe Tory seats, but ones where they have managed to whip up a Moamentum crowd to worship the messiahs every word.
Exactly this! Corbyn has stayed in safe spaces. May has actually been visiting people on the door steps and in work places. Thats why she has had embarrassing encounters.
Also, Jezza's target demographic is all about the socials innit bruv. All about getting that good looking 15second Instagram / snapchat vid to share.
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
Beat me to it! But very odd..
Simples. When the campaign started we were 20%+ behind in the polls. Which meant we were on track to lose places like Hartlepool to the Tories.
Labour haven't changed their plans since then?
I think that Gordon Brown visited mostly Safe Labour or Semi- marginal seats from 2005 in the GE in 2010. I think they did this because outside of Labour, Brown was very unpopular. I suspect the same might be true with Corbyn. The left love him but anyone who is anything other than Labour are not well disposed to him. That is 70% of the population in all probability!
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
You are presuming that where they send Jahadi Jez is carefully targeted in regards to seats. So far he has spent crazy number of hours in ultra safe Tory seats, but ones where they have managed to whip up a Moamentum crowd to worship the messiahs every word.
Exactly this! Corbyn has stayed in safe spaces. May has actually been visiting people on the door steps and in work places. Thats why she has had embarrassing encounters.
Workplaces are the most controlled, by far; the company being visited will be concerned about its reputation, the staff will have been briefed beforehand and told to be on best behaviour, and the boss will be standing there watching. Would be a brave employee who attacks the PM in an environment like that! Even asking a challenging question would be bold.
A letter from Emily Thornberry asking for one final push. One million young people have registered to vote for the first time. With a final pre election contribution they will be able to do a nationwide map of polling stations (I guess that's in case the 1,000,000 new voters can't find their way).
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
How is an exit poll done? Do they ask people's ages?
They sample about 20,000 people outside polling stations in various secret locations. Respondents fill in a ballot paper which looks exactly the same as the real one they've just completed in the polling station. They know how people responded in the same locations at the previous election, so it's all done based on the changes from the previous election. I'm not sure whether they ask for people's ages.
AND, as David Dimbleby asked but Peter Kellner and the other one never answered I think in the 2015 results programme, what about the postals. How do they sample them ?
Theresa May as Home Secretary: -Stopped control orders.
Fake News. They were ruled incompatible with (Labour's) Human Rights Act
May voted against them.
Quite right too. They were incompatible with the Human Rights Act and unlawful under Article 6 ECHR, not to mention opposed by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, JUSTICE and Liberty. Labour bought forth a complete horlicks of a law and tried to force it through parliament, quite a lot of Labour MPs voted against it!
Well they will be introduced again very shortly.
Not unless we leave the ECHR, which we should, but won't.
Lord Carlille reviewer of terrorism legislation does not agree with you.States that they were justified proportional and used as a last resort.Has slammed the decision of the conservatives to abolish them.
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
Beat me to it! But very odd..
Simples. When the campaign started we were 20%+ behind in the polls. Which meant we were on track to lose places like Hartlepool to the Tories.
Labour haven't changed their plans since then?
I think that Gordon Brown visited mostly Safe Labour or Semi- marginal seats from 2005 in the GE in 2010. I think they did this because outside of Labour, Brown was very unpopular. I suspect the same might be true with Corbyn. The left love him but anyone who is anything other than Labour are not well disposed to him. That is 70% of the population in all probability!
Corbyn was due to visit Leamington Spa on Sunday but cancelled because of London Bridge (and not because Southam Observer was seen with a sack of tomatoes).
That's a higher conversion of applications to registrations than we saw in 2015. Which suggests a lot of the "I have no idea whether I am registered already" duplicate applications found out the answer last year.
Can anyone answer this question? The reason for the divergence of polls is that they cant agree on turnout of young. But might this not be a problem for the BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday? I notice its being done by Mori Ipsos which is one of the firms which think there will be a high young turnout. How will Mori overcome this problem in the exit poll so that they get the actual turnout of young right?
The exit poll is real samples at real polling stations.
I assume they will be able to determine the age of the people they interview...
Yes, although they will still need to get the relative proportions right. That said, they've been bloody good in the last two elections.
If votes shift in ways which are different from previous elections (which seems at least possible), then they might be sampling the wrong seats. For that reason, the forecast might be less accurate this time.
It's possible, but the 2010 election saw the Lib Dem collapse and 2015 saw the SNP surge and they correctly identified in both cases almost exactly how far those tides would sweep.
According to most of the forecasts, about 40% of the increase in the Lab share is coming from the Greens. For example with BritainElects Labour are up from 31.2% to 36.0% and the Greens are down from 3.8% to 2.0.%
Has the lib dem vote in 2010 that voted tory in 2015 stayed tory post brexit?
Its going off the scale Tory this time. Also 20% of LD voters in 2015 are going Tory as well.
FWIW Corbyn is speaking in Gateshead tonight. Gateshead...
Does it really matter where he is? 99.999% of people get their information via mediums of one sort or another, not by being in a specific location.
But why bother? This seat is going red no matter what. We've not even had any Lib Dem or Tory literature. Nothing at all!
Labour are probably worried about a potential swing to the Tories in Northumberland and Teeside, perhaps Gateshead is the most obvious place to hold a rally for those areas.
Quite. I suspect this has more to do with Darlington and Bishop Auckland than Gateshead.
or maybe we should ignore where corbyn goes as he only meets with hoades of adoring fans anyway.
I would point out that the LibDems did poorly in East Dunbartonshire in both the local elections last month, and in the Scottish Holyrood elections.
If they do win it, it will be entirely on the back of Jo Swinson.
Compare and contrast with the LD performances at Holyrood in Edinburgh West (LDs +14.1%), NE Fife (+15.4%), Caithness Sutherland and Ross (+8.8%), and Argyll & Bute (+13.6%).
Swinson massively outperformed the national LD disaster in 2015 with the clearest beneficiary of tactical voting you will ever see. My gut says this will unwind as Tories will not tactically vote for the LD when nationally they were being told they are dominant.
Comments
Oh...and rich people's taxes have gone up alot, including losing all their personal allowance. Repeating Jezza's mantras doesn't make them true. Look at the charts of tax impact per decile.
Make sure to check where it ends up in her expenses after the election.
Ducks for cover .....
Tango?
Patrick Ruffini
Co-founder of @EchelonInsights and Founder/Chairman of @engagedc"
https://medium.com/@PatrickRuffini/whats-up-with-yougov-s-uk-election-model-9ff9bb6d599
(Ducks similarly...)
In 2015, the government announced that overall police budgets would be protected. This meant the amount of money the police receive from the government would increase each year in line with inflation for the following five years.
that's what the Statue of Bigotry says
Your poor huddled masses, let's club 'em to death
and get it over with and just dump 'em on the boulevard
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
A good question Mr Crick.
Am i reading too much into this? Why would he be in these seats with 3 days to go?
Two Labour seats in Scotland both even money or better. Edinburgh South-Labour to hold on and East Lothian-Labour to take. A well informed tip
You can still get comparatively decent odds on Labour winning Sutton & Devonport.
WillS.
https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/871746838436741124
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131146542
May could lose her majority, not impossible, but she'd have to lose a fair more seats than that for Corbyn to become PM.
Projections from last time by 538 in 2015.
@Woody of this parish tipped up Sherwood for the Tories at 11-4.
This time he reckons Con Maj 100+
If they do win it, it will be entirely on the back of Jo Swinson.
Compare and contrast with the LD performances at Holyrood in Edinburgh West (LDs +14.1%), NE Fife (+15.4%), Caithness Sutherland and Ross (+8.8%), and Argyll & Bute (+13.6%).
Mwahahhahah!
Different pitches and all that but the English bowlers' efforts against Bangladesh are being put into some perspective here.
Thank God they don't do IQ tests!
Edit ... and look where that got him.
I am not betting on the race.