Oh we have a facebook war going on here in Ceredigion between Palid and Lib Dems - Lib Dems have posted on Plaid's page that they support an extreme Brexit like Tories, Labour and UKIP .Plaid are not happy calling the LibDems liarsand demanding it is takendown and an apology given
Wondering if Labour winning Canterbury is more or less likely than Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump becoming US president, the UK leaving the EU and Leicester winning the Premier league.
You can't extrapolate a result in an event based on previous unrelated events. It's a classic non sequitur (a non sequitur, in formal logic, is an invalid argument).
In plain English, it's that word again, begins with 'b', ends in 's'.
Wondering if Labour winning Canterbury is more or less likely than Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump becoming US president, the UK leaving the EU and Leicester winning the Premier league.
Let's just say you wouldn't want it as the last leg of your accumulator!
If you had that accumulator you would be in with a shot of winning the universe.
The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?
And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).
It could be, but given that it is explicitly a bottom-up model which models every constituency first and then aggregates the results, it seems very unlikely.
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.
The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
To quote Chaucer, who was commenting on Canterbury being won by Labour:
"This Nicholas anon leet fle a fart As greet as it had been a thonder-dent That with the strook he was almoost yblent"
Have spoken with three people today who were all wavering over over voting Tory due to WFA and social care... All have swung back into the Con camp to stop Jezza...
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)
And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).
It could be, but given that it is explicitly a bottom-up model which models every constituency first and then aggregates the results, it seems very unlikely.
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.
A 4pt national lead for TMay at say 42/38 would be enough to retain her current majority.
On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?
Which seats in that area need help? I'd have thought that although it is a long shot for a Labour win, it is the weakest Tory seat relatively speaking. Or are the Tories worried about the Lib Dems in Eastbourne and Lewes?
Eastbourne and Lewes are the main two seats in this area which potentially vulnerable (Eastbourne more than Lewes IMO). Both are certainly a lot more at risk than Hastings & Rye.
Having said that, they don't look to me to me to be especially in danger. Obviously one must never be complacent, and there's a strong effort being put in by the Conservatives in both seats, but overall I don't think the LibDems are going to advance in either. They look less in danger now than they did a few weeks ago, given the fact that the LibDems nationally don't really seem to have been able to boost their support as many of us had expected.
There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
YouGov somehow contrive to have Hastings & Rye as 'Lean Labour'.
That is, to put it mildly, not a view shared locally. In fact, Hastings Conservatives have been helping in other seats.
Which seats in that area need help? I'd have thought that although it is a long shot for a Labour win, it is the weakest Tory seat relatively speaking. Or are the Tories worried about the Lib Dems in Eastbourne and Lewes?
My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Lab_seat_gains.html Vale of Clwyd 99% Gower Wales 98% Cardiff North Wales 86% Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81% Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79% Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76% Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53% Clwyd West Wales 53% Con Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
very strange map for wales. they have tories beating labour incumbent in Ynys Mon, yet losing existing seat of Vale of Glamorgan! (labour need a 7% swing)
Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
It appears the Canterbury Parliamentary Constituency has been Conservative since 1885 - Would certainly be a "surprise" if they lost it to Jeremy Corbyn when even Blair at this best couldn't snatch it...
Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.
It clearly doesn't have an effect on his supporters, but the rest of us........
My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Lab_seat_gains.html Vale of Clwyd 99% Gower Wales 98% Cardiff North Wales 86% Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81% Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79% Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76% Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53% Clwyd West Wales 53% Con Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
very strange map for wales. they have tories beating labour incumbent in Ynys Mon, yet losing existing seat of Vale of Glamorgan! (labour need a 7% swing)
I can't see the Tories winning Ynys Mons and losing Glamorgan personally.
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).
It could be, but given that it is explicitly a bottom-up model which models every constituency first and then aggregates the results, it seems very unlikely.
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.
A 4pt national lead for TMay at say 42/38 would be enough to retain her current majority.
If you apply that 42/38 figure to Canterbury you get Con 47%, Lab 32%. Is it possible for that 15% gap to be overturned because of special circumstances in this particular constituency? The Tories would have to do 8 points worse and Labour 8 points better than average.
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.
But that makes no sense. They'd be far better advised to do a national poll and apply UNS, rather than breaking down their sample into micro-samples, modelling individual seats with massive error bars, and then adding up the results. It's a statistical nonsense.
the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.
No, Kippers are going to pour out and vote for Jeremy 'open the borders and let them all in" Corbyn......
I don't talk to traitors. (scum who put their party first country second). People who live in essex put their country people in places like berkshire, devon put themselves first. Traitors to the state.
Go outside and knock on strangers doors and scare them with the IRA.
The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
It's all just Tales.
this election was supposed to be (Gina) Miller's tale....
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.
Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, continuing the surge now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.
Have spoken with three people today who were all wavering over over voting Tory due to WFA and social care... All have swung back into the Con camp to stop Jezza...
Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.
I've not seen it but it looks like it's on tonight on Film 4,? So it's worth a record and then watch?
My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Lab_seat_gains.html Vale of Clwyd 99% Gower Wales 98% Cardiff North Wales 86% Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81% Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79% Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76% Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53% Clwyd West Wales 53% Con Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
very strange map for wales. they have tories beating labour incumbent in Ynys Mon, yet losing existing seat of Vale of Glamorgan! (labour need a 7% swing)
I can't see the Tories winning Ynys Mons and losing Glamorgan personally.
If Ynys Monchanges it will be a Plaid gain as their former MP and leader is back Ieaun Wyn Jones
Were it not for the particularly strong turnout model employed, [ICM] too would be showing something very close to YouGov’s 5-pointer, rather than the 14-pointer we have...ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
Essentially ICM have added a chunk of vote share to the Conservatives "for luck" because everyone always seems to underestimate Conservative vote share, but nobody is quite sure why. ICM are not necessarily wrong to do so, if it gets them closer to the end result, but it doesn't inspire confidence in anyone's polling.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.
Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, peaking at just the right time, now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.
Before moving here I have always lived in safe Conservative seats so I have nothing to judge this against. But the fact we are being bombarded with so much personalised material by the Conservatives this close to polling day suggests to me that their private polling is telling them this seat is in play. If that is the case they must think we are still in landslide territory. However, if the published polls are correct, even looking at the best polls for the Conservatives, this seat isn't anywhere near being in play.
What do I think is happening here? I really don't know. But the views I hear being expressed about Corbyn suggest the Conservatives may be in with a chance.
The Tories have money to burn so they're even phone canvassing in Nottingham North, which is REALLY not in play. If you've got £10 million lying around, why not? But also, the direct mails will have ben set up weeks ago when they really did think they had a shot at sweeping the board. I would be more impressed if you were getting hand-delivered leaflets at this point - that really would indicate that they still thought it was a target.
Is there not a number on the envelope so you know where the vote came from but not how they voted (but could interpolate - if postal votes are all coming in from the leafier parts of the constituency you would be concerned if Labour)
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
The smoke signals emerging from Dudley North (Amongst others) and Ealing Central & Acton on twitter suggest that one of the waves is crashing home whereas the other is looking like a mirage.
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?
On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?
It's amazing how a theme can suddenly take off, even though it's preposterous. This is a good example of it. YouGov model - which we all know is total bollocks - says Labour could take Canterbury. If they did, Corbyn would be heading for a landslide - which is also total bollocks.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS
How do you know it is total bollocks? I have no idea ad I'd suggest that you are in the same position. Using words like bollocks in caps is no substitute for serious analysis
But their competitors think it is total bollocks.
And which of the parties think it isn't total bollocks?
I certainly don't believe the YouGov prediction for my constituency. They show a huge increase in the Labour vote taking it back close to 1997 levels (which was the highest vote share they have ever had in this constituency). That really does not compute.
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
We are apt to forget it is a Nowcast, not a Forecast, too. But so are they, unfortunately. The error is merely statitistical, not where the vote % might go between here and the election.
The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
I live "next door" but regard the City as home. Personally i dont like Brazier and have been amazed his vote holds up so well. But he is liked locally and he does have strong support amongst the oldies.
As i said earlier the University students are all going home and with the activity that i have seen this is not a seat either side expects to change hands.
Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.
Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, peaking at just the right time, now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.
You are IOS and I claim my £5
I wish I knew what that meant. Is it complimentary?
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?
You need to have a look at the "ordered" list to determine whether their model has validity.
Which constituency is #325 for the Tory-Labour 'gap', then compare to the results.
the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.
No, Kippers are going to pour out and vote for Jeremy 'open the borders and let them all in" Corbyn......
I don't talk to traitors. (scum who put their party first country second). People who live in essex put their country people in places like berkshire, devon put themselves first. Traitors to the state.
Go outside and knock on strangers doors and scare them with the IRA.
Jeremy Corbyn's Garden Tax is way more effective.....
Were it not for the particularly strong turnout model employed, [ICM] too would be showing something very close to YouGov’s 5-pointer, rather than the 14-pointer we have...ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
Essentially ICM have added a chunk of vote share to the Conservatives "for luck" because everyone always seems to underestimate Conservative vote share, but nobody is quite sure why. ICM are not necessarily wrong to do so, if it gets them closer to the end result, but it doesn't inspire confidence in anyone's polling.
It's the other way around - ICM have deducted a chunk of Labour's vote on the basis that, in the past at least, it hasn't turned out on the day.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.
@Calum - if Labour form the next government, whether with or without a majority, they will try to keep Britain in the single market and the customs union. Will Nicola Sturgeon then withdraw the request for a referendum, or at least put it on hold?
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?
No, because it's a model not a seat forecaster. A win for them would be the other way round.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' even ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.
Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, peaking at just the right time, now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.
You are IOS and I claim my £5
I wish I knew what that meant. Is it complimentary?
What do you think of labour's 'ground game' #innocentface
Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.
I've not seen it but it looks like it's on tonight on Film 4,? So it's worth a record and then watch?
Yep def. Good gritty drama, only incidentally about NI. Jack O'Connell particularly good, but then I'm a fan.
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.
But that makes no sense. They'd be far better advised to do a national poll and apply UNS, rather than breaking down their sample into micro-samples, modelling individual seats with massive error bars, and then adding up the results. It's a statistical nonsense.
Worse, having a huge sample does nothing to help with the problem of getting hold of a random sample in the first place. If anything it makes the problem fifty times worse, which means their headline vote shares are a very accurate reflection of a self-selecting sample - completely useless.
YouGov is all based on the assumption we will see that the youth will turnout like never before (or for a long long time). Something that very much has to be seen to be believed.
If the Youth of this country were holding mass Obama style rallies across the country backing Labour and Corbyn then I would have to buy into it.
But we aren't so I just can't see it, we would be seeing a lot more signs of it if it was on the cards, more than just polling found by these companies.
The last time they were in third place was in 1966.
Again, unsurprising. The seat has far more pensioners than the NW generally, and when they import pensioners from surrounding seats to supplement their 75 panellists, they aren't LibDem voters, unlike many of their Southport counterparts.
Another mention of spurious garden tax, the problem is people trying to get a house let alone a garden! Garden tax is a non-runner, all about police cuts today and Theresa resigning.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' even ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
Yougov have Broxtowe as a Labour gain.
Are Yougov doing Labour's internal polls? Serious question.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' even ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
I think Soubry would be a great loss to the Commons and her party. I'd vote for her
Were it not for the particularly strong turnout model employed, [ICM] too would be showing something very close to YouGov’s 5-pointer, rather than the 14-pointer we have...ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
Essentially ICM have added a chunk of vote share to the Conservatives "for luck" because everyone always seems to underestimate Conservative vote share, but nobody is quite sure why. ICM are not necessarily wrong to do so, if it gets them closer to the end result, but it doesn't inspire confidence in anyone's polling.
It's the other way around - ICM have deducted a chunk of Labour's vote on the basis that, in the past at least, it hasn't turned out on the day.
Thanks. I was thinking of it from the Conservative lead point of view. In zero sum electoral politics, if fewer people vote Labour, the Conservative percentage will rise and they will win more seats. But you are more accurate.
Edit. I don't think it definitely means prospective Labour voters are less likely to turn out on the day. Simply that more people say they will vote Labour in the polls than do in actual elections, for reasons that are not clear.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' even ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
I think Soubry would be a great loss to the Commons and her party. I'd vote for her
Mike, she's one of yours, really. Right down to the cannabis.
Looks like much of the country is going to be very very wet on Thursday, not sure that will lead to a great turn out amongst those who are typically less inclined to vote historically.
Comments
In plain English, it's that word again, begins with 'b', ends in 's'.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
I would love to see amber rudd get taken down.
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/871499395648323585
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.
Labour surge has stopped but no sign of swingback to Con.
Con 43.7% (8% lead)
Lab 35.7%
LD 8.0%
Con 348 (46 maj)
Lab 225
LD 10
SNP 46
"This Nicholas anon leet fle a fart
As greet as it had been a thonder-dent
That with the strook he was almoost yblent"
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/corbyn-mcdonnell-abbott-voted-to-allow-isis-fighters-to-return-to-britain/
Corbyn fighting the last few days of the election on national security and the fight against terrorism. Yup, he sure is a genius.
Have spoken with three people today who were all wavering over over voting Tory due to WFA and social care... All have swung back into the Con camp to stop Jezza...
it would be so weird if may wins and rudd/gummer get taken down.
https://twitter.com/jamieross7/status/871717295902601216
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/canterbury/
William Hill: Tories 1/100.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/10971349/Canterbury+Constituency+-+Party+Winner.html
Having said that, they don't look to me to me to be especially in danger. Obviously one must never be complacent, and there's a strong effort being put in by the Conservatives in both seats, but overall I don't think the LibDems are going to advance in either. They look less in danger now than they did a few weeks ago, given the fact that the LibDems nationally don't really seem to have been able to boost their support as many of us had expected.
(My wife and I have been helping in Eastbourne).
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/shouty-political-activists-have-a-126735/
they have tories beating labour incumbent in Ynys Mon, yet losing existing seat of Vale of Glamorgan! (labour need a 7% swing)
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canterbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
354 Britain Elects
355 Ashcroft
361 Baxter
365 Hanretty
367 Tory best-poll method (ICM)
369 SpIndex
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/
Go outside and knock on strangers doors and scare them with the IRA.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, continuing the surge now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.
Half-term's over: watch the polls move their way this week as Tories return from hols.
What's really happening with Labour in the polls? (After poll last week)
Essentially ICM have added a chunk of vote share to the Conservatives "for luck" because everyone always seems to underestimate Conservative vote share, but nobody is quite sure why. ICM are not necessarily wrong to do so, if it gets them closer to the end result, but it doesn't inspire confidence in anyone's polling.
prh47bridge said:
Before moving here I have always lived in safe Conservative seats so I have nothing to judge this against. But the fact we are being bombarded with so much personalised material by the Conservatives this close to polling day suggests to me that their private polling is telling them this seat is in play. If that is the case they must think we are still in landslide territory. However, if the published polls are correct, even looking at the best polls for the Conservatives, this seat isn't anywhere near being in play.
What do I think is happening here? I really don't know. But the views I hear being expressed about Corbyn suggest the Conservatives may be in with a chance.
The Tories have money to burn so they're even phone canvassing in Nottingham North, which is REALLY not in play. If you've got £10 million lying around, why not? But also, the direct mails will have ben set up weeks ago when they really did think they had a shot at sweeping the board. I would be more impressed if you were getting hand-delivered leaflets at this point - that really would indicate that they still thought it was a target.
Personally i dont like Brazier and have been amazed his vote holds up so well. But he is liked locally and he does have strong support amongst the oldies.
As i said earlier the University students are all going home and with the activity that i have seen this is not a seat either side expects to change hands.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/871720163531423744
Which constituency is #325 for the Tory-Labour 'gap', then compare to the results.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The last time they were in third place was in 1966.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40111329
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
http://www.nottinghampost.com/hundreds-of-people-turn-out-to-see-jeremy-corbyn-in-beeston/story-30369802-detail/story.html
(I'm on the picture in the second row, just behind him - fame at last etc.)
Garden tax is a non-runner, all about police cuts today and Theresa resigning.
Are Yougov doing Labour's internal polls? Serious question.
Edit. I don't think it definitely means prospective Labour voters are less likely to turn out on the day. Simply that more people say they will vote Labour in the polls than do in actual elections, for reasons that are not clear.
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...