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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation
Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017.
Comments
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E pluribus unum0
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Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
Second like may0
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Fourth
Third after the cloned TSE is disqualified!0 -
Is Theresa "losing" the debate?TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/871707140406292480
Just because the media and commentators say something doesn't make it true...0 -
Sixth like the Greens0
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On topic, these next few days will determine the size of the majority.
As I noted on the previous thread that sub-optimal facebook video for Mrs May on police numbers/terrorism has over 5 million views in 24 hours.
She needs to get on the front foot.
Though I preferred the gold old days when only the BNP and UKIP exploited terrorist attacks for political motives and not the major parties.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
twitter.com/IanDunt/status/871707140406292480
She isn't. Corbyn is lying through his teeth. His supporters are lapping it up. Some elements of the media are making a story out of it.
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She's losing the debate in the same way the Corbyn opposes "shoot to kill"GIN1138 said:
Is Theresa "losing" the debate?TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/871707140406292480
Just because the media and commentators say something doesn't make it true...0 -
Asked my colleague if she's changed her mind about either May or Corbyn over the course of the campaign.
"No" and "No"0 -
On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.0
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One commentator does not an argument prove. Many saying Corbyn has over reached and is being a bit dim. However the fact he's not being monstored totally over his views and record is a bit weird.GIN1138 said:
Is Theresa "losing" the debate?TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/871707140406292480
Just because the media and commentators say something doesn't make it true...0 -
Even if you accept the first half of Ian Dunt's tweet, what on earth has it got to do with the Brexit negotiations? These aren't even remotely similar to an election campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
FPT:
And one further thought. The reason pollsters didn't see Brexit coming, and didn't see Trump coming (in the sense of the error between poll and outturn) was that their turnout models didn't reflect the actual patterns of turnout in those votes.IanB2 said:
Yes, but obviously YG is working from the given addresses of their panelists.MarqueeMark said:
Have those students left Canterbury yet?ThePonderer said:
It isn't totally impossible. Urban Canterbury has more students per head of population than anywhere else in Europe and Whitstable, the other urban part of the seat, is drifting Labour due to its Islington-on-Sea reputation.MarqueeMark said:Pulpstar said:Labour ahead in Canterbury ?
I have NEVER heard so much tripe in all my life.
Momentum students gaming the system much?
Labour available at 33/1 to win.
Playing devil's advocate for YouGov, I am sure they would say that their model is not intended to be an individual seat-by-seat forecaster. We are looking at it that way, because of betting. YouGov has tried to use the reach of its panel (fifty times the size of a normal poll) plus its bank of local demographic data to try and get beyond the nornal headline VI of a poll to see how this might pan out at local level. If they have done the modelling right it is entirely reasonable to expect that YG will be picking up regional swings, and swings affecting particular demographics, better than any other poll.
I would therefore expect the YG Labour/Tory VI and projected seats to be more accurate than those derived from any poll. The one big weakness YG has is its assumption of self-certified intention to vote. It would be very interesting to know what the YG model would throw up if they fed in the ICM/ComRes assumption of likelihood to vote by denographic, based on 2015?0 -
FPT
I get from my model:Pulpstar said:
Here is mine, both Labour and Tory vote share to go up almost certainly.AndyJS said:I've taken a screenshot of YouGov's Canterbury forecast in case it disappears later on.
http://imgur.com/a/zY21g
CON Canterbury 47.70554859 29.31003921
CON 45%
LAB 28%
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Because Mr Dunt is an arch Remoaner who doesn't want Brexit to happen?Richard_Nabavi said:
Even if you accept the first half of Ian Dunt's tweet, what on earth has it got to do with the Brexit negotiations? These aren't even remotely similar to an election campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
The aggregate polls for Trump were good - where that failed was in how it split over the country.IanB2 said:FPT:
And one further thought. The reason pollsters didn't see Brexit coming, and didn't see Trump coming (in the sense of the error between poll and outturn) was that their turnout models didn't reflect the actual patterns of turnout in those votes.IanB2 said:
Yes, but obviously YG is working from the given addresses of their panelists.MarqueeMark said:
Have those students left Canterbury yet?ThePonderer said:
It isn't totally impossible. Urban Canterbury has more students per head of population than anywhere else in Europe and Whitstable, the other urban part of the seat, is drifting Labour due to its Islington-on-Sea reputation.MarqueeMark said:Pulpstar said:Labour ahead in Canterbury ?
I have NEVER heard so much tripe in all my life.
Momentum students gaming the system much?
Labour available at 33/1 to win.
Playing devil's advocate for YouGov, I am sure they would say that their model is not intended to be an individual seat-by-seat forecaster. We are looking at it that way, because of betting. YouGov has tried to use the reach of its panel (fifty times the size of a normal poll) plus its bank of local demographic data to try and get beyond the nornal headline VI of a poll to see how this might pan out at local level. If they have done the modelling right it is entirely reasonable to expect that YG will be picking up regional swings, and swings affecting particular demographics, better than any other poll.
I would therefore expect the YG Labour/Tory VI and projected seats to be more accurate than those derived from any poll. The one big weakness YG has is its assumption of self-certified intention to vote. It would be very interesting to know what the YG model would throw up if they fed in the ICM/ComRes assumption of likelihood to vote by denographic, based on 2015?
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No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
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Exactly this, just because the media frames the debate as her on the back foot, it doesn't mean she is losing. The past of Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell is being kept to the fore and the vast silent majority will vote accordinglyGIN1138 said:
Is Theresa "losing" the debate?TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/871707140406292480
Just because the media and commentators say something doesn't make it true...
Furthermore, I don't think how someone is presented in media during an election campaign is the best guide to how he/she will be at behind closed doors, face to face negotiations0 -
I bet May wishes she had not opposed control orders.She would like some control now.0
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The rustbelt polling in the USA was utterly awful. Hillary consistently ahead in Wisconsin.0
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Well, there is that. Still, he's provided us with the non-sequitur of the week, so we can be thankful for the amusement.Sandpit said:
Because Mr Dunt is an arch Remoaner who doesn't want Brexit to happen?Richard_Nabavi said:
Even if you accept the first half of Ian Dunt's tweet, what on earth has it got to do with the Brexit negotiations? These aren't even remotely similar to an election campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
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There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?0 -
Remember the Ian Dunt rule. Corbyn is marginally less Brexitty than May and thus Corbyn is winning the argument.TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
So the last few days of this election is being fought over national security. This should be a home run for the Tories.
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.0 -
One minor technical point: the weekend YG survey that included the VI update had a technical error (for either some or all panellists, I don't know) that prevented its completion and submission. YG say they will be sending out another (I guess later today).
This does mean either that the YG model won't update tomorrow morning or, if it does, it won't include all of the post-London survey data, which I assume will feed into the results for the Wednesday (and final?) update.0 -
They sent Emily Thornberry to Canterbury on Friday - but she is a University of Kent graduate and nearly won the seat (2,069 votes) against the incumbent in 2001.MarqueeMark said:There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
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@PickardJE: this is where Boris hides the £350m a week of European cash for NHS etc
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/8717083388615065600 -
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
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I've been told by the wife that if I vote Labour shes going to divorce me!
Finally, I can get a younger version
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Control orders fell foul of the judiciary. They were not the right approach therefore. Not sure their replacement is either.Yorkcity said:I bet May wishes she had not opposed control orders.She would like some control now.
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If it is a Labour win by 7%, then no-one will notice it in the Labour 100 seat majority....ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
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The only evidence we have is that the Tories have gone de-fence in places like Plymouth and Portsmouth, which have small majorities vulnerable to a student Corbyn surge.MarqueeMark said:There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
I expect that'll be where we find it happens, the rest being a lot of piss and wind.-1 -
TravelJunkie said:
I've been told by the wife that if I vote Labour shes going to divorce me!
Finally, I can get a younger version
Divorcees 4 Corbyn?
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Almost did it in 2001, Lib Dem vote has collapsed since, student numbers have rocketed.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
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Surely the Labour "Tour" should be sent to seats with youngish demographics where they're close ?0
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YouGov somehow contrive to have Hastings & Rye as 'Lean Labour'.MarqueeMark said:There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
That is, to put it mildly, not a view shared locally. In fact, Hastings Conservatives have been helping in other seats.0 -
They were the right approach and they will be introduced again.dyedwoolie said:
Control orders fell foul of the judiciary. They were not the right approach therefore. Not sure their replacement is either.Yorkcity said:I bet May wishes she had not opposed control orders.She would like some control now.
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You are Philip May and I claim my £5.TravelJunkie said:I've been told by the wife that if I vote Labour shes going to divorce me!
Finally, I can get a younger version0 -
Is that true? It might be but it seems at least as plausible the other way round, if we assume both leaders were only ex-officio Remainers before the referendum.Brom said:
Remember the Ian Dunt rule. Corbyn is marginally less Brexitty than May and thus Corbyn is winning the argument.TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
It's amazing how a theme can suddenly take off, even though it's preposterous. This is a good example of it. YouGov model - which we all know is total bollocks - says Labour could take Canterbury. If they did, Corbyn would be heading for a landslide - which is also total bollocks.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS0 -
I said on here at the weekend, if you are looking at NOM, then a good shot would be Norwich North to go red. Labour putting on votes in the city sections of the seat but could only take it if they got traction in the suburbs. If they get close, this is the sort of place they will do it, 12/1 DYOR0
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Canterbury differs significantly from UNS. Biggest swing to Labour in the South East in 2015 - 5.2%.MarqueeMark said:
If it is a Labour win by 7%, then no-one will notice it in the Labour 100 seat majority....ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
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So the last few days of this election is being fought over national security. This should be a home run for the Tories.
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.
The Sun and Mail maybe do not have the same clout as they once did.0 -
For the Lib Dems I think the election has come 18 months too early...the local council elections were disrupted by the GE announcement that boosted the Tories. I'm convinced the Lib Dems would have seen decent gains in those election but for the announcement.
There's still some optimism though. Once Brexit negotiations start I think the narrative will change, particularly if the economy struggles and Labour divisions open up.
Inflation rises are bound to put the pinch on family budgets so assuming the Tories win it will be a rocky period ahead. If the Lib Dems can hang on to around 10 seats the prospects are there for a brighter future...but that's a mighty big "if".
It just depends on how well they'll do in getting the vote out in the target seats - non target seat members are being told basically to abandon their own campaigns and get over to their nearest winnable seat.
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Definitely, it's a university seat and those will give some of best results for Corbyn. But to suggest the Tories might lose a 10k majority is a bit silly IMO.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
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1.A lot of students won't be thereThePonderer said:
Almost did it in 2001, Lib Dem vote has collapsed since, student numbers have rocketed.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
2. Neither of the Canterbury Unis are probably as Labour as some other Unis
3. Incumbency bonus
4. 7,000 UKIP votes to squeeze
5. 2001 had the Tories at their lowest ebb and not polling 45%
6. Canterbury and Whistable (narrowly) voted leave
If Labour win that then Corbyn will be PM with a nice majority.0 -
What if we live in the universe where the YouGov model is 100% accurate?0
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Party before cuntry.TravelJunkie said:I've been told by the wife that if I vote Labour shes going to divorce me!
Finally, I can get a younger version0 -
Leaving a starting majority of 18%. To change a Tory majority of 18% to a Labour majority of 7% would be a swing of over 12% this time.ThePonderer said:
Canterbury differs significantly from UNS. Biggest swing to Labour in the South East in 2015 - 5.2%.MarqueeMark said:
If it is a Labour win by 7%, then no-one will notice it in the Labour 100 seat majority....ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
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They are mad or geniuses. Or both.So the last few days of this election is being fought over national security. This should be a home run for the Tories.HYUFD said:
I think yougov is on a kamikaze mission at the momentAndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.
'Should be' does not mean 'will' of course.
I do think that Corbyn's pivots and careful presentation of potentially awkward topics does the lie to that he is not like other politicians in terms of spin. He has become quite professional in this campaign, for better and worse.
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Are you another tory that puts the parties interests ahead of the country?MarkHopkins said:TravelJunkie said:I've been told by the wife that if I vote Labour shes going to divorce me!
Finally, I can get a younger version
Divorcees 4 Corbyn?
imagine the outrage of yourself had a labour prime minister cut 20,000 police officers and oversaw 3 terrorist attacks in 3 months..
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The Sun and Mail maybe do not have the same clout as they once did.Yorkcity said:So the last few days of this election is being fought over national security. This should be a home run for the Tories.
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.
Maybe, but they do have a massive readership, and reach parts the Mirror or the Guardian could only ever dream about.
Let's put it this way - Corbyn would much rather they were on his side rather than the Tories, although he would never admit to that publically.
They will go for this throat in the next few days.
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Maybe my reasoning is slightly off, I should have said Dunt favours whoever is least likely to make Brexit a reality.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is that true? It might be but it seems at least as plausible the other way round, if we assume both leaders were only ex-officio Remainers before the referendum.Brom said:
Remember the Ian Dunt rule. Corbyn is marginally less Brexitty than May and thus Corbyn is winning the argument.TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
How do you know it is total bollocks? I have no idea ad I'd suggest that you are in the same position. Using words like bollocks in caps is no substitute for serious analysisJason said:
It's amazing how a theme can suddenly take off, even though it's preposterous. This is a good example of it. YouGov model - which we all know is total bollocks - says Labour could take Canterbury. If they did, Corbyn would be heading for a landslide - which is also total bollocks.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS
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Take a look at YouGov's constituency forecasts.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
Yes I think you will be proved correct.Casino_Royale said:
The only evidence we have is that the Tories have gone de-fence in places like Plymouth and Portsmouth, which have small majorities vulnerable to a student Corbyn surge.MarqueeMark said:There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
I expect that'll be where we find it happens, the rest being a lot of piss and wind.0 -
Possibly, but the UKC summer Ball/ orgie was on Saturday and many of them have started to go home.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
The 4Cc ball was on Friday and likewise numbers are dropping off.
even If the election was last week i would still say a strong hold but majority will be interesting.
My point about the Lib Dems on the last thread related to the Council elections-they are quite strong locally and building back up-i dont see their vote collapsing and going to Labour.0 -
I am going to take separately the average of those polls based on the 2015 Miliboredom model, which calculates at 45%:35%, and the average of those based on the 2017 Youth Tsunami, which calculates at 42%:38%, and then make the assumption that this time there will be a surge in younger voter turnout, but not up to the level that young voters themselves are self-predicting.
So the mid-point of these two approaches is Tory 43.5% v Labour 36.5%. Which is my best guess right now, pending any late swing from the London incident and its aftermath. I reckon this puts the Tories on about 350 seats (allowing for a bit of favourable regional swings) and a majority of 50.0 -
It's a long way to the Orkneys from Littlehampton...TheKrakenAwakes said:For the Lib Dems I think the election has come 18 months too early...the local council elections were disrupted by the GE announcement that boosted the Tories. I'm convinced the Lib Dems would have seen decent gains in those election but for the announcement.
There's still some optimism though. Once Brexit negotiations start I think the narrative will change, particularly if the economy struggles and Labour divisions open up.
Inflation rises are bound to put the pinch on family budgets so assuming the Tories win it will be a rocky period ahead. If the Lib Dems can hang on to around 10 seats the prospects are there for a brighter future...but that's a mighty big "if".
It just depends on how well they'll do in getting the vote out in the target seats - non target seat members are being told basically to abandon their own campaigns and get over to their nearest winnable seat.0 -
Winning elections is the politicians' core skill. It isn't unreasonable to assume that if a politician can't do that well they probably won't excel at one of the other things they are supposed to be good at.Richard_Nabavi said:
Even if you accept the first half of Ian Dunt's tweet, what on earth has it got to do with the Brexit negotiations? These aren't even remotely similar to an election campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:Shamefully this is true, how on earth has Mrs May ended up in this position.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8717071404062924800 -
https://www.nasa.gov/nasalive dragon docking btw.0
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My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.0
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And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).MikeSmithson said:
How do you know it is total bollocks? I have no idea ad I'd suggest that you are in the same position. Using words like bollocks in caps is no substitute for serious analysisJason said:
It's amazing how a theme can suddenly take off, even though it's preposterous. This is a good example of it. YouGov model - which we all know is total bollocks - says Labour could take Canterbury. If they did, Corbyn would be heading for a landslide - which is also total bollocks.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS0 -
Anyone who thinks Labour are going to take Canterbury based on that absurd YG model, are, IMO, not serious people. Sorry about the caps.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know it is total bollocks? I have no idea ad I'd suggest that you are in the same position. Using words like bollocks in caps is no substitute for serious analysisJason said:
It's amazing how a theme can suddenly take off, even though it's preposterous. This is a good example of it. YouGov model - which we all know is total bollocks - says Labour could take Canterbury. If they did, Corbyn would be heading for a landslide - which is also total bollocks.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS0 -
the tories won the 2015 election by 6.5% are you saying they will only improve by 1%?IanB2 said:I am going to take separately the average of those polls based on the 2015 Miliboredom model, which calculates at 45%:35%, and the average of those based on the 2017 Youth Tsunami, which calculates at 42%:38%, and then make the assumption that this time there will be a surge in younger voter turnout, but not up to the level that young voters themselves are self-predicting.
So the mid-point of these two approaches is Tory 43.5% v Labour 36.5%. Which is my best guess right now, pending any late swing from the London incident and its aftermath. I reckon this puts the Tories on about 350 seats (allowing for a bit of favourable regional swings) and a majority of 50.0 -
TravelJunkie said:
Are you another tory that puts the parties interests ahead of the country?MarkHopkins said:TravelJunkie said:I've been told by the wife that if I vote Labour shes going to divorce me!
Finally, I can get a younger version
Divorcees 4 Corbyn?
imagine the outrage of yourself had a labour prime minister cut 20,000 police officers and oversaw 3 terrorist attacks in 3 months..
TMay increased the task force that looks at terrorists.
Whereas...
* McDonnell thanked terrorists for their bombs and bullets.
* Abbott wanted to disband the security services.
* Corbyn doesn't want shoot-to-kill police.
Country first => Conservative vote (in this election).
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Given the half baked excuse for a campaign that they have inflicted on us these past two months, the surprise is that they are improving at all.TravelJunkie said:
the tories won the 2015 election by 6.5% are you saying they will only improve by 1%?IanB2 said:I am going to take separately the average of those polls based on the 2015 Miliboredom model, which calculates at 45%:35%, and the average of those based on the 2017 Youth Tsunami, which calculates at 42%:38%, and then make the assumption that this time there will be a surge in younger voter turnout, but not up to the level that young voters themselves are self-predicting.
So the mid-point of these two approaches is Tory 43.5% v Labour 36.5%. Which is my best guess right now, pending any late swing from the London incident and its aftermath. I reckon this puts the Tories on about 350 seats (allowing for a bit of favourable regional swings) and a majority of 50.0 -
I'm pretty sure we had this exact same conversation about Canterbury in 2015? Or was it Maidstone then? Either way, it'll be the same outcome.
If Labour win in Canterbury they'd be on their way to forming a minority....0 -
If they were wiped out (or even were reduced to 2-3 MPs) that surely would be game over. One more bite of the cherry in 2022 and then a merger/split.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
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Herne Bay voted leave and that tipped the balance-Canterbury voted remain.Brom said:
1.A lot of students won't be thereThePonderer said:
Almost did it in 2001, Lib Dem vote has collapsed since, student numbers have rocketed.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
2. Neither of the Canterbury Unis are probably as Labour as some other Unis
3. Incumbency bonus
4. 7,000 UKIP votes to squeeze
5. 2001 had the Tories at their lowest ebb and not polling 45%
6. Canterbury and Whistable (narrowly) voted leave
If Labour win that then Corbyn will be PM with a nice majority.0 -
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
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Caveat EmptorTheScreamingEagles said:E pluribus unum
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But their competitors think it is total bollocks.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know it is total bollocks? I have no idea ad I'd suggest that you are in the same position. Using words like bollocks in caps is no substitute for serious analysisJason said:
It's amazing how a theme can suddenly take off, even though it's preposterous. This is a good example of it. YouGov model - which we all know is total bollocks - says Labour could take Canterbury. If they did, Corbyn would be heading for a landslide - which is also total bollocks.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS
And which of the parties think it isn't total bollocks?0 -
They wont.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
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It could be, but given that it is explicitly a bottom-up model which models every constituency first and then aggregates the results, it seems very unlikely.IanB2 said:And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).
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YouGov is all based on the assumption we will see that the youth will turnout like never before (or for a long long time). Something that very much has to be seen to be believed.
If the Youth of this country were holding mass Obama style rallies across the country backing Labour and Corbyn then I would have to buy into it.
But we aren't so I just can't see it, we would be seeing a lot more signs of it if it was on the cards, more than just polling found by these companies.0 -
The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.0
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They are mad or geniuses. Or both.HYUFD said:
I think yougov is on a kamikaze mission at the momentAndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Not really. Herding would surely be where they had been showing a range, and then they all cluster together toward the end? Particularly where this occurs due to mid campaign methodological changes. Granted they are accused of being all over the place when they do not herd though.Scrapheap_as_was said:a very fair point!
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/871701859031027712
It's more that Labour are going to increase by more than the Tories will.TravelJunkie said:
the tories won the 2015 election by 6.5% are you saying they will only improve by 1%?IanB2 said:I am going to take separately the average of those polls based on the 2015 Miliboredom model, which calculates at 45%:35%, and the average of those based on the 2017 Youth Tsunami, which calculates at 42%:38%, and then make the assumption that this time there will be a surge in younger voter turnout, but not up to the level that young voters themselves are self-predicting.
So the mid-point of these two approaches is Tory 43.5% v Labour 36.5%. Which is my best guess right now, pending any late swing from the London incident and its aftermath. I reckon this puts the Tories on about 350 seats (allowing for a bit of favourable regional swings) and a majority of 50.0 -
Which seats in that area need help? I'd have thought that although it is a long shot for a Labour win, it is the weakest Tory seat relatively speaking. Or are the Tories worried about the Lib Dems in Eastbourne and Lewes?Richard_Nabavi said:
YouGov somehow contrive to have Hastings & Rye as 'Lean Labour'.MarqueeMark said:There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
That is, to put it mildly, not a view shared locally. In fact, Hastings Conservatives have been helping in other seats.0 -
I think there is a significant north / south divide. There is no doubt Corbyn goes down well with educated leftists, and students, and the London labour scene. I just feel that the Labour might be racking up votes where they already have them.prh47bridge said:Some thoughts on the campaign in my seat in case anyone is interested...
I live in the North West in a Labour-held seat. It is number 80-something on the Tories target list.
In 2015 we got 2 or 3 leaflets each from Labour and the Conservatives. We also received some leaflets from other parties (one each from UKIP and the LibDems IIRC). No major figure from any party visited the constituency. It all felt fairly perfunctory.
This time the Conservative campaign went into overdrive early. We heard so much from them before Labour got going that I was beginning to wonder if we were going to hear from Labour at all. We have now received two leaflets from Labour, one of which was addressed to me personally. Only one of these leaflets came within the last two weeks. Neither of them mentions Jeremy Corbyn at all.
I have lost count of the number of communications we have received from the Conservatives. We have received 4 leaflets from them in the last two weeks, 3 of them addressed to me and/or my wife personally. All four of them include messages from Theresa May. She is front and centre in the personally addressed leaflets and takes up the majority of the other leaflet, although that one leads on linking the Labour candidate to Corbyn. The most recent personally addressed leaflet arrived today, the one before arrived on Friday. Theresa May has also visited the constituency and campaigned door to door.
Unlike last time we haven't heard anything from the minor parties. UKIP aren't standing this time. Note that ex-UKIP voters won't be enough to win this seat for the Conservatives. Apart from UKIP all the minor parties lost their deposits last time.
I can't comment on canvassing. Due to our location I would not expect to receive visits from canvassers and telephone canvassers would be blocked.
Before moving here I have always lived in safe Conservative seats so I have nothing to judge this against. But the fact we are being bombarded with so much personalised material by the Conservatives this close to polling day suggests to me that their private polling is telling them this seat is in play. If that is the case they must think we are still in landslide territory. However, if the published polls are correct, even looking at the best polls for the Conservatives, this seat isn't anywhere near being in play.
What do I think is happening here? I really don't know. But the views I hear being expressed about Corbyn suggest the Conservatives may be in with a chance.
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Wondering if Labour winning Canterbury is more or less likely than Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump becoming US president, the UK leaving the EU and Leicester winning the Premier league.0
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Fair enough, and HB not in the constituency. Either way a narrow remain area in Kent won't be voting anyone other than Tory. I'm pretty sure Tunbridge Wells isn't in danger of going red eitherRepublicanTory said:
Herne Bay voted leave and that tipped the balance-Canterbury voted remain.Brom said:
1.A lot of students won't be thereThePonderer said:
Almost did it in 2001, Lib Dem vote has collapsed since, student numbers have rocketed.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
2. Neither of the Canterbury Unis are probably as Labour as some other Unis
3. Incumbency bonus
4. 7,000 UKIP votes to squeeze
5. 2001 had the Tories at their lowest ebb and not polling 45%
6. Canterbury and Whistable (narrowly) voted leave
If Labour win that then Corbyn will be PM with a nice majority. 0 -
FPT:
Based on their latest numbers, YouGov have the Tories at a mid-range forecast of 306 seats, which is approximately 75 seats behind a total of around 380 seats, implied by ICM's latest poll.
Never in the history of British General Election polling has there been such a divergence between two major and respected polling firms with just three days to go before the big day.
It's surely too late now for serious herding, we're looking at blood-letting here on a very serious scale with major reputations being laid bare.
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Quidquid latine dictum, altum videtur.logical_song said:
Caveat EmptorTheScreamingEagles said:E pluribus unum
Jez possumus.0 -
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It's only interesting insofar as it shines a light on how the YG model works. There are tons of *interesting* seat level results (East Devon, Kensington, Hastings, etc.). In their position I would have been tempted to use the model to make a seat forecast but not publish the detailed data; but kudos to them for being brave enough to expose the detail of their projection to scrutiny from the likes of us.Stark_Dawning said:The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps his captured the residents' imagination.
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Labour coming for the final push !
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/8717146238666670080 -
My big fear is that my predictions are right but I don't bet on them, or that I do bet and am completely wrong. I expect the Conservatives to lose seats, for there to be a hung parliament followed by a Conservative minority government, and for the exit poll to be wrong.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
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http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Lab_seat_gains.htmlAndyJS said:
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
Vale of Clwyd 99%
Gower Wales 98%
Cardiff North Wales 86%
Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81%
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76%
Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53%
Clwyd West Wales 53% Con
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC
Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
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I got the impression from your earlier posts that you were early 20s. If so, 'younger version'. EwwwTravelJunkie said:I've been told by the wife that if I vote Labour shes going to divorce me!
Finally, I can get a younger version
Still, if you use expressions such as 'the wife' perhaps you are much older.0 -
So overall, in the final analysis, you aren't really a fan of Jezza?Jason said:
Corbyn trying to paint himself as a steady hand in the face of terror is an obscenity. CCHQ, the Sun, the Mail, have to 'gently remind' the public what a lying piece of scum this wretched old bastard clearly is.
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Let's just say you wouldn't want it as the last leg of your accumulator!Jonathan said:Wondering if Labour winning Canterbury is more or less likely than Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump becoming US president, the UK leaving the EU and Leicester winning the Premier league.
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I'm going away to Majorca tonight. I'll miss the poll; won't be voting.
My predictions are always a bit iffy but I reckon:
Cons - 47%
Lab - 32%
Libs - 9%
UKIP - 5%
I think Corbyn will pip Miliband on the popular vote, but his votes will pile up in safe areas. He'll struggle in the marginals.
Tories will get their vote out, albeit reluctantly among some.0 -
Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?0
