politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics
Comments
-
Yes, but what i'm saying is that actually it is about appealing to his base of political junkie conspiracy theorist loons, this won't have an effect on joe bloggs.JackW said:
See edmundintokyo @ 12:30pmbrokenwheel said:
From my experience most people who aren't political junkies understand the reason for terrorist attacks is terrorists.JackW said:Corbyn's call for May to resign isn't aimed at the political junkies but Joe Bloggs who sees a reasonable relationship between massive police cuts and terror attacks. Put simply :
"May cut 20,000 coppers and here we are today."
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.0 -
"London terrorist appeared in Channel 4 jihadi documentary and 'tried to go to Syria'"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/05/london-terrorist-appeared-channel-4-jihadi-documentary-tried/0 -
He's no pacifist. He's super comfortable with violence - as long as it is violence conducted in support of a cause he likes. Even now many 'Tory scum' Labour MPs are physically intimated by his Momentum boot boys putting bricks through their windows. Or try being a Jew in the Labour party.Jason said:...a lifetime of anti-British pacifism...
0 -
nother quick Q. I've had a horrible thought. Can't remember if I stuck doen my innerenvolope on my postal vote. Will it still count if I didn't?
Edit - I hate the keyboard on my computer0 -
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,HYUFD said:
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015Cyan said:
Ooh...is something about to come out?Scott_P said:Yes Corbyn is channelling Hilton...
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too0 -
Francois Rabelais - C16 Gargantua - se frottant leur lardIshmael_Z said:
I don't know and would be very cautious about who I asked; it's quite likely it has re-crossed the channel as frottage but with added Anglo Saxon innuendo.Theuniondivvie said:
Does it have any sexual connotation in French, or have they gone down the 'le dry humping' road?Ishmael_Z said:
Frottage is a completely innocent word in French - it just means rubbing - including making a brass rubbing, which gives a lot of scope for comedic misunderstandings.Theuniondivvie said:
Frotting is pithier, and doesn't have the Frenchified cadence that you patriotic Anglo dry humpers would, I'm sure, deplore.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, don't google it at work.rkrkrk said:
Frotaging? Dare I google that at work?TheScreamingEagles said:I know some PBers were frotaging themselves over that YouTube video of Corbyn/terrorism getting a couple of million views in a few days.
This video has got over 5 million views in less than a day, and it's not exactly optimal for Theresa May
https://www.facebook.com/EalingLabour4Corbyn/videos/538044779919764/
But yes - pretty damning, suspect all the more powerful because delivered by an apparently independent police officer...
"rubbing their bacon" as the two backed beast
0 -
Do you know who founded Momentum?Patrick said:
He's no pacifist. He's super comfortable with violence - as long as it is violence conducted in support of a cause he likes. Even now many 'Tory scum' Labour MPs are physically intimated by his Momentum boot boys putting bricks through their windows. Or try being a Jew in the Labour party.Jason said:...a lifetime of anti-British pacifism...
0 -
I can see why Corbyn might not think that helpfulAlastairMeeks said:
Something like: "I attended COBRA this morning, where we were updated by the PM and the security services. They’re doing everything they can to keep us safe"Charles said:
what was the original wording?AlastairMeeks said:Nice rewording of the Mayor's tweet:
https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/871689232862990336
One wonders how much screaming down the phone this followed.0 -
Of course he was right to do it. A revolution is not a dinner party, as Chairman M. said.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Every labour politician will now be quizzed if he was right to politicise the attackedmundintokyo said:
This also follows the Trump parallel. He already looks stupid, he has nothing to lose by being audacious.Brom said:
It's getting the conversation back on police funding, but also making Corbyn look rather stupid. I'm not sure if overall that helps Labour or not.0 -
Friend of mine works on cost-cutting reform in the police in the South of England.HurstLlama said:
No they do not, they really do not. What they need is some serious leaders who will really take an axe to the back office and concentrate on doing the job they are paid for. Some progress has been made in this respect in recent years but there are still far too many "civvies" employed in jobs that actually only exist to give work to other "civvies".
The budget cuts on the police were imposed by the Treasury (that was TSE's great mate, Osborne) and not by the Home Office. How those cuts were implemented was decided by each individual force (in practice by its Chief Officer) not the Home Secretary. Some forces cut more from the frontline than others. Most, if not all, still kept on far too many back-office staff. Possibly because the committees and working parties who decided where the axes will fall were overloaded with senior back office staff (ain't no HR director on a six figure salary going to propose a cut in the HR department).
When police forces have got their back office functions and staffing levels back to those of the 1980's then they might have a genuine gripe about funding. Until then the Police need to put their own house in order.
As an aside Police and Crime Commissioners might just be held to account for the state of their police force. If people don't like the way the cuts have been implemented they might perhaps vote for someone else rather than on simple party lines.
She said there were lots of redundant processes that needed to be automated in the back office - like making people pay things online rather than letting them send in cheques for instance.
That said - we should be wary about just assuming back office is useless and needs to be slashed. That's how you end up with BA IT outsourcing nightmares... But definitely true that you have to keep up with changing, more efficient ways of working...0 -
This is of course true, but oddly the floating voters they're fighting for are pretty much the same: White, low-information, middle-aged-to-elderly, formerly left-voting...brokenwheel said:
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.0 -
Depends how naive you believe the British public are. Most people will now know Corbyn's past record on terrorism (and being friends of terrorist organisations), and all of the associated baggage. Now, in a last desperate stunt to shift the news agenda, he's asking for the PM to resign.Cyan said:
You are both understanding it well. It's not at all a stupid move by Corbyn. It's bright. This may be the reason that some Tories are foaming at the mouth with hatred and shouting "cretin".RochdalePioneers said:
May isn't an MP. But she is PM. And as we've seen in the coverage over the last 24 hours she's taking a lot of flack for cutting police numbers so deeply. And its something thats been a live issue in my town for a couple of years. So handcuffing May to the cuts will resonate, and provides a rebuttal to what the Tories are trying to do in pinning responsibility for terrorism onto Corbynedmundintokyo said:
Right, it's like Trump's Lock Her Up line. It excites the base, but that's not the point. What matters is that it makes low-information floating voters dimly perceive that there might be something worth locking her up over.JackW said:Corbyn's call for May to resign isn't aimed at the political junkies but Joe Bloggs who sees a reasonable relationships between massive police cuts and terror attacks. Put simply :
"May cut 20,000 coppers and here we are today."
This may be the first election for 20 years where Labour gets some effective blows in during the last few days.
And it looks to me as though it's the first blow in a case of "the old one-two". We shall find out.
If you believe Corbyn is on safe ground on this subject, then you are a bigger fool than he is.0 -
But petty and mean spirited looking of the Mayor to bother retweeting.Charles said:
I can see why Corbyn might not think that helpfulAlastairMeeks said:
Something like: "I attended COBRA this morning, where we were updated by the PM and the security services. They’re doing everything they can to keep us safe"Charles said:
what was the original wording?AlastairMeeks said:Nice rewording of the Mayor's tweet:
https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/871689232862990336
One wonders how much screaming down the phone this followed.
0 -
Get the Parliamentary video of Corbyn defending Isis supporters featured on Guido into the mainstream and he is finished. Vital to counter the totally dishonest Labour attack.0
-
Shoot to kill is simple. If there is no alternative then fine, do it. If there is any chance of safely protecting the public and leaving them alive then that HAS to be the best option.
These jihadists are a brilliant source of intelligence. A thorough interrogation is something we should be aiming for if possible.0 -
0
-
YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
To be fair to Jeremy Corbyn he did say that a win for Labour would be the best way of ensuring that Theresa May could not preside over more cuts to policing. She has been the Home Secretary for so long and then Prime Minister so she must bear some responsibility for system failures.
In asking for her to resign he is underlining the extent of her culpability.
May has already blatently played politics with this issue.0 -
Are you talking your book as much as you were in the French election, btw?Cyan said:
You are both understanding it well. It's not at all a stupid move by Corbyn. It's bright. This may be the reason that some Tories are foaming at the mouth with hatred and shouting "cretin".RochdalePioneers said:
May isn't an MP. But she is PM. And as we've seen in the coverage over the last 24 hours she's taking a lot of flack for cutting police numbers so deeply. And its something thats been a live issue in my town for a couple of years. So handcuffing May to the cuts will resonate, and provides a rebuttal to what the Tories are trying to do in pinning responsibility for terrorism onto Corbynedmundintokyo said:
Right, it's like Trump's Lock Her Up line. It excites the base, but that's not the point. What matters is that it makes low-information floating voters dimly perceive that there might be something worth locking her up over.JackW said:Corbyn's call for May to resign isn't aimed at the political junkies but Joe Bloggs who sees a reasonable relationships between massive police cuts and terror attacks. Put simply :
"May cut 20,000 coppers and here we are today."
This may be the first election for 20 years where Labour gets some effective blows in during the last few days.
And it looks to me as though it's the first blow in a case of "the old one-two". We shall find out.0 -
His refusal to say the words "islam" and "terrorism" in the same sentence are deeply worrying.dr_spyn said:
Until you remember that he helped to nominate Corbyn.Richard_Nabavi said:Sadiq Khan is a useful reminder that not all senior Labour figures are dangerous idiots.
0 -
Quite so. i've not been very critical of that either. Actually it's a bit ridiculous that we shouldn't be having a debate during an election marked by terrorist attacks on whether the right policies on terrorism are being followed. Are we really supposed to say "Never mind about all that, what about the culture budget"?Freggles said:
May politicised it yesterday. Next.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Every labour politician will now be quizzed if he was right to politicise the attack0 -
who in their right mind is going to walk up to a bloke wearing an exploisives vest and ask him to surrender ?RochdalePioneers said:Shoot to kill is simple. If there is no alternative then fine, do it. If there is any chance of safely protecting the public and leaving them alive then that HAS to be the best option.
These jihadists are a brilliant source of intelligence. A thorough interrogation is something we should be aiming for if possible.
this is like WW2 in the Pacific where they shot the Japs rather than take them prisoner
0 -
Yes. But then he is an idiot. Not a dangerous idiot (per @RichardNabavi earlier) but an ambitious idiotPatrick said:
But petty and mean spirited looking of the Mayor to bother retweeting.Charles said:
I can see why Corbyn might not think that helpfulAlastairMeeks said:
Something like: "I attended COBRA this morning, where we were updated by the PM and the security services. They’re doing everything they can to keep us safe"Charles said:
what was the original wording?AlastairMeeks said:Nice rewording of the Mayor's tweet:
https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/871689232862990336
One wonders how much screaming down the phone this followed.0 -
How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?edmundintokyo said:
This is of course true, but oddly the floating voters they're fighting for are pretty much the same: White, low-information, middle-aged-to-elderly, formerly left-voting...brokenwheel said:
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.0 -
Lots of students at the University of Kent in that constituency.AndyJS said:YouGov have Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
Not all of them have vests. We're also raiding other addresses and making more arrests. Good. Arrest the bastards, drain them dry of info. Not bothered what happens to them after that.Alanbrooke said:
who in their right mind is going to walk up to a bloke wearing an exploisives vest and ask him to surrender ?RochdalePioneers said:Shoot to kill is simple. If there is no alternative then fine, do it. If there is any chance of safely protecting the public and leaving them alive then that HAS to be the best option.
These jihadists are a brilliant source of intelligence. A thorough interrogation is something we should be aiming for if possible.
this is like WW2 in the Pacific where they shot the Japs rather than take them prisoner0 -
Turns out Corbyn was asked a question about whether he would support calls from others for her to resign, and said yes but there's an election soon which can achieve it. Not a planned gambit.
She blundered badly by saying the police were 'crying wolf' over the cuts because they're not being restrained in their criticisms of her now, and they will cut through to the public far more easily than the armchair experts here talking about cutting backroom elements and more efficient management and the like. Very difficult to present coppers as heroes demonstrably putting their lives on the line one day and money-grubbing whingers the next.0 -
And Canterbury Christ Church Uni but it will remain blue.Cyan said:
Lots of students at the University of Kent in that constituency.AndyJS said:YouGov have Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
Hanretty: Tories will win by 10 points.
"Why then is my forecast so bullish about the Conservatives' prospects? In part, it's because of movement I expect to happen between now and the day of the election in the polls. I described how I model this in a previous post, but generally Labour do badly in the run-in to elections."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-final-straight-5336d7e034060 -
The end of the university seats?EPG said:
How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?edmundintokyo said:
This is of course true, but oddly the floating voters they're fighting for are pretty much the same: White, low-information, middle-aged-to-elderly, formerly left-voting...brokenwheel said:
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.0 -
Didn't we do this last week? There is zero chance of Labour winning Canterbury.KentRising said:
And Canterbury Christ Church Uni but it will remain blue.Cyan said:
Lots of students at the University of Kent in that constituency.AndyJS said:YouGov have Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
...maybe we should divert more of the culture budget to ...erm...reinforcing our own culture...as opposed to their barbaric medieval death cult....just saying...NickPalmer said:
Quite so. i've not been very critical of that either. Actually it's a bit ridiculous that we shouldn't be having a debate during an election marked by terrorist attacks on whether the right policies on terrorism are being followed. Are we really supposed to say "Never mind about all that, what about the culture budget"?Freggles said:
May politicised it yesterday. Next.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Every labour politician will now be quizzed if he was right to politicise the attack
0 -
-
My investment in laying a Con maj is well green (it's risen 35% in value; I laid at 1.17). I'm hoping to increase it a lot, not to sell it. That's the only item in my book. How is yours?Mortimer said:
Are you talking your book as much as you were in the French election, btw?Cyan said:
You are both understanding it well. It's not at all a stupid move by Corbyn. It's bright. This may be the reason that some Tories are foaming at the mouth with hatred and shouting "cretin".RochdalePioneers said:
May isn't an MP. But she is PM. And as we've seen in the coverage over the last 24 hours she's taking a lot of flack for cutting police numbers so deeply. And its something thats been a live issue in my town for a couple of years. So handcuffing May to the cuts will resonate, and provides a rebuttal to what the Tories are trying to do in pinning responsibility for terrorism onto Corbynedmundintokyo said:
Right, it's like Trump's Lock Her Up line. It excites the base, but that's not the point. What matters is that it makes low-information floating voters dimly perceive that there might be something worth locking her up over.JackW said:Corbyn's call for May to resign isn't aimed at the political junkies but Joe Bloggs who sees a reasonable relationships between massive police cuts and terror attacks. Put simply :
"May cut 20,000 coppers and here we are today."
This may be the first election for 20 years where Labour gets some effective blows in during the last few days.
And it looks to me as though it's the first blow in a case of "the old one-two". We shall find out.0 -
Judge Corbyn on what he said and May by what she has done - "judge me on my record" she said. And her record is directly implicated in this terrorist hell we're in. Jeremy hasn't cut a single police officer's job, a single Border Force job, a single PCSO job - May did all of that.Jason said:
Depends how naive you believe the British public are. Most people will now know Corbyn's past record on terrorism (and being friends of terrorist organisations), and all of the associated baggage. Now, in a last desperate stunt to shift the news agenda, he's asking for the PM to resign.
If you believe Corbyn is on safe ground on this subject, then you are a bigger fool than he is.
But because his philosophy is "to stop violence you all need to talk" its his fault apparently. How naive do you think the British people are? The solution to the Norther Irish civil war was dialogue as everyone recognises. Talking to the IRA shock is less shock when the commander of the Belfast Brigade for many years was Deputy First Minister and Education Minister.
Go ask people scared to go out at night whats has the biggest impact on their lives. The visible lack of police officers? Or a story in the Sun about what Corbyn said a decade ago?
0 -
Think that's been under discussion since the Reform Acts!EPG said:
How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?edmundintokyo said:
This is of course true, but oddly the floating voters they're fighting for are pretty much the same: White, low-information, middle-aged-to-elderly, formerly left-voting...brokenwheel said:
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.
But communicating one idea or factoid to a low-information voter is likely to have a greater swaying influence than communicating one idea or factoid to a high-information voter, since the latter has other information available to sway them. Information you can broadcast to lower-information voters is several times more valuable than to high-information voters.0 -
So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?0 -
0
-
chortleScott_P said:
BrexitEPG said:How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?
Lies emblazoned the side of buses endorsed by senior politicians, and "we have had enough of experts" as a campaign slogan
as opposed to lies endorsed by "experts" and peddled by senior politicans on TV0 -
But to do that he has to defend his own record of voting against all anti terror legislation and why they were all wrong.RochdalePioneers said:
Judge Corbyn on what he said and May by what she has done - "judge me on my record" she said. And her record is directly implicated in this terrorist hell we're in. Jeremy hasn't cut a single police officer's job, a single Border Force job, a single PCSO job - May did all of that.Jason said:
Depends how naive you believe the British public are. Most people will now know Corbyn's past record on terrorism (and being friends of terrorist organisations), and all of the associated baggage. Now, in a last desperate stunt to shift the news agenda, he's asking for the PM to resign.
If you believe Corbyn is on safe ground on this subject, then you are a bigger fool than he is.
But because his philosophy is "to stop violence you all need to talk" its his fault apparently. How naive do you think the British people are? The solution to the Norther Irish civil war was dialogue as everyone recognises. Talking to the IRA shock is less shock when the commander of the Belfast Brigade for many years was Deputy First Minister and Education Minister.
Go ask people scared to go out at night whats has the biggest impact on their lives. The visible lack of police officers? Or a story in the Sun about what Corbyn said a decade ago?0 -
-
Thanks Alastair. I see what you are saying, but the extreme skewing within these regions of the Plaid support means that in addition to the usual pitfalls of subsamples, you would also be assuming that the subsample was somewhat evenly balanced accross the region. If the small to begin with Mid Wales sample is skewed away from the coast, then it will likely give a horrible result for Plaid. Is there any corroborating evidence that Plaid are in trouble in their own seats ?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not a fan of analysing subsamples, which is an exercise similar to examining chicken entrails. I do want to take this head on though. As you note, "Mid and West" has eight seats. Two of these Carmarthen E & Dinefwr and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) Plaid Cymru hold, one of which (Ceredigion) is one of their two main prospects and one of which (Llanelli) is a lurker for them. Admittedly the other four seats are hopeless for them. But the YouGov subsample shows them polling just 9% in this region, fourth behind the Lib Dems. In 2015 they would have been polling just under 20% in this region. If they are losing so many votes in this area - and I hesitate to draw conclusions from subsamples - it's almost impossible to see how they are doing so without doing so in seats they hold or are in serious contention in.PaulM said:That price on selling Plaid seats of 3.6 seems interesting given they only have three seats now.
I suppose you are betting against them winning Ynys Mon (where they are favoured) or Cerdigion (where they are competitive).
I do think the three seats they have are fairly safe though. When you look at the regional polling for their "strongholds", I think the regions as defined aren't helpful. "North Wales" has 9 seats, and only three of them have Plaid being historically competitive. In parts of NE Wales they struggle to save the deposit.
Similarly "Mid and West Wales" covers 8 seats, only a couple of which would have any Plaid history, and some of which like Montgomeryshire have Plaid losing their deposit.
So the regional splits don't tell you much, but I would have thought that there is no chance they lose the two in the predominatly Welsh speaking areas, and Camarthen East should be fairly safe as well
Of course, subsamples are subsamples. But still you have to wonder whether they are going to suffer a calamity.0 -
Are you saying those attacks could have been stopped if we had more PCSOs? Don't be silly, man. No amount of Police Officers could stop a determined attack by anyone.RochdalePioneers said:
Judge Corbyn on what he said and May by what she has done - "judge me on my record" she said. And her record is directly implicated in this terrorist hell we're in. Jeremy hasn't cut a single police officer's job, a single Border Force job, a single PCSO job - May did all of that.Jason said:
Depends how naive you believe the British public are. Most people will now know Corbyn's past record on terrorism (and being friends of terrorist organisations), and all of the associated baggage. Now, in a last desperate stunt to shift the news agenda, he's asking for the PM to resign.
If you believe Corbyn is on safe ground on this subject, then you are a bigger fool than he is.
But because his philosophy is "to stop violence you all need to talk" its his fault apparently. How naive do you think the British people are? The solution to the Norther Irish civil war was dialogue as everyone recognises. Talking to the IRA shock is less shock when the commander of the Belfast Brigade for many years was Deputy First Minister and Education Minister.
Go ask people scared to go out at night whats has the biggest impact on their lives. The visible lack of police officers? Or a story in the Sun about what Corbyn said a decade ago?
Corbyn has spent his whole career giving succour to our enemies, then performs an absurd u-turn 3 days before a GE, on the behest of Seamus Milne. Please.0 -
Democracy. "Thick proles get the vote" is a feature, not a bug. If you don't like it, you could stand for parliament on a "no more democracy party".Scott_P said:
BrexitEPG said:How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?
Lies emblazoned the side of buses endorsed by senior politicians, and "we have had enough of experts" as a campaign slogan
If the current state of the polling companies does not cure you of your delusion that "expert" is a synonym of "prophet", nothing will.0 -
We live in a Rob Peter To Pay Paul world. Paul has more votes. And spent his formative years in the state education system.EPG said:
How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?edmundintokyo said:
This is of course true, but oddly the floating voters they're fighting for are pretty much the same: White, low-information, middle-aged-to-elderly, formerly left-voting...brokenwheel said:
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.
0 -
Given that he's just reversed, hard, what do you think the "old two" will be?Cyan said:
You are both understanding it well. It's not at all a stupid move by Corbyn. It's bright. This may be the reason that some Tories are foaming at the mouth with hatred and shouting "cretin".RochdalePioneers said:
May isn't an MP. But she is PM. And as we've seen in the coverage over the last 24 hours she's taking a lot of flack for cutting police numbers so deeply. And its something thats been a live issue in my town for a couple of years. So handcuffing May to the cuts will resonate, and provides a rebuttal to what the Tories are trying to do in pinning responsibility for terrorism onto Corbynedmundintokyo said:
Right, it's like Trump's Lock Her Up line. It excites the base, but that's not the point. What matters is that it makes low-information floating voters dimly perceive that there might be something worth locking her up over.JackW said:Corbyn's call for May to resign isn't aimed at the political junkies but Joe Bloggs who sees a reasonable relationships between massive police cuts and terror attacks. Put simply :
"May cut 20,000 coppers and here we are today."
This may be the first election for 20 years where Labour gets some effective blows in during the last few days.
And it looks to me as though it's the first blow in a case of "the old one-two". We shall find out.0 -
He's a libertarian. He's already pointed out all the Tories who joined him voting against various AT acts. Including Theresa May.dyedwoolie said:
But to do that he has to defend his own record of voting against all anti terror legislation and why they were all wrong.
0 -
The cabinet would agree who would take the role of PM and the Queen would summon them.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?
Post election they would continue as PM if they commanded the confidence of Parliament and the Tories would have to sort out who was the leader of the party. Major was PM but not leader of the party after he resigned in 1995 until reelected by the PCP.0 -
As another poster said on here, several times, in the Hansard record there is Ted Heath saying that joining the EU will mean a political union (I paraphrase a bit). If everyone on here is so stupid not to have read that then it's their fault.
Corbyn has said many things over the last 30 years and if everyone on here is so stupid not to believe it it's their fault.0 -
Well said. As one example, the various police forces used to have individual vehicle procurement for cars, vans and ever helicopters. The latter are now arranged mutually for the whole of England, with commonality of fleet type and huge savings in servicing costs and downtime windows.rkrkrk said:
Friend of mine works on cost-cutting reform in the police in the South of England.HurstLlama said:
No they do not, they really do not. What they need is some serious leaders who will really take an axe to the back office and concentrate on doing the job they are paid for. Some progress has been made in this respect in recent years but there are still far too many "civvies" employed in jobs that actually only exist to give work to other "civvies".
The budget cuts on the police were imposed by the Treasury (that was TSE's great mate, Osborne) and not by the Home Office. How those cuts were implemented was decided by each individual force (in practice by its Chief Officer) not the Home Secretary. Some forces cut more from the frontline than others. Most, if not all, still kept on far too many back-office staff. Possibly because the committees and working parties who decided where the axes will fall were overloaded with senior back office staff (ain't no HR director on a six figure salary going to propose a cut in the HR department).
When police forces have got their back office functions and staffing levels back to those of the 1980's then they might have a genuine gripe about funding. Until then the Police need to put their own house in order.
As an aside Police and Crime Commissioners might just be held to account for the state of their police force. If people don't like the way the cuts have been implemented they might perhaps vote for someone else rather than on simple party lines.
She said there were lots of redundant processes that needed to be automated in the back office - like making people pay things online rather than letting them send in cheques for instance.
That said - we should be wary about just assuming back office is useless and needs to be slashed. That's how you end up with BA IT outsourcing nightmares... But definitely true that you have to keep up with changing, more efficient ways of working...
The Federation should really be aiming their ire at chief constables and elected commissioners, but they prefer to parrot Labour's line about measuring inputs (number of people) rather than outputs like crime rates and incident response times.
Yesterday they could have led a countrywide show of love for those who protect us, instead of voicing support for theose who think of the terrorists as their friends.0 -
Tories are scared of Seumas. I've never seen one call him stupid or a cretin. Why can it be? :innocentface:Scott_P said:0 -
Weather looks pretty awful on Thursday in a lot of places. Will the yoof drop their Xbox or PS4 controllers and get down to their polling station if it's pissing it down?0
-
Bring it on. I'm on Hammond, Hunt, Rudd at 100/1 and Boris at 50/1 to be PM after the next GE.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?0 -
Wonder who would get the job in this purely hypothetical situation. One of Rudd, Johnson or Hammond I guess, with Rudd probably having the best claim today.dyedwoolie said:
The cabinet would agree who would take the role of PM and the Queen would summon them.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?
Post election they would continue as PM if they commanded the confidence of Parliament and the Tories would have to sort out who was the leader of the party. Major was PM but not leader of the party after he resigned in 1995 until reelected by the PCP.0 -
i wonder why they chose that poll and not the one showing Lab much closer.Scott_P said:0 -
I worry more about those with not much longer to live having the most power.EPG said:
How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?edmundintokyo said:
This is of course true, but oddly the floating voters they're fighting for are pretty much the same: White, low-information, middle-aged-to-elderly, formerly left-voting...brokenwheel said:
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.
The young have most of their lives ahead of them. The old have it mostly behind them and will die relatively soon.
I think there is a case, in all fairness, for votes to be weighted in proportion to life expectancy.
The vote of a 25 year old should carry three times the weight of say a 75 year old.
Technically it would be easy to implement - we give our date of birth when we register to vote.
Politically it would be more difficult, - more difficult than introducing PR.
0 -
But not all. That's the rub. That's where he is weak as much as May is on numbers of bobbies.RochdalePioneers said:
He's a libertarian. He's already pointed out all the Tories who joined him voting against various AT acts. Including Theresa May.dyedwoolie said:
But to do that he has to defend his own record of voting against all anti terror legislation and why they were all wrong.0 -
Massive WTF.AndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Didn't even happen at the peak of Blair's prowess.0 -
He can point to the PM and Brexit Secretary joining him on some of those votes. No interviewer is going to go bill-by-bill so that slings enough mud to close off the discussion as a nil-nil draw. And then the previous Home Sec's failure to use the actual powers she had is a good place to go. May's actual record of action (inaction) is a pretty big weakness for attacks on Corbyn's past opinions.dyedwoolie said:
But to do that he has to defend his own record of voting against all anti terror legislation and why they were all wrong.RochdalePioneers said:
Judge Corbyn on what he said and May by what she has done - "judge me on my record" she said. And her record is directly implicated in this terrorist hell we're in. Jeremy hasn't cut a single police officer's job, a single Border Force job, a single PCSO job - May did all of that.Jason said:
Depends how naive you believe the British public are. Most people will now know Corbyn's past record on terrorism (and being friends of terrorist organisations), and all of the associated baggage. Now, in a last desperate stunt to shift the news agenda, he's asking for the PM to resign.
If you believe Corbyn is on safe ground on this subject, then you are a bigger fool than he is.
But because his philosophy is "to stop violence you all need to talk" its his fault apparently. How naive do you think the British people are? The solution to the Norther Irish civil war was dialogue as everyone recognises. Talking to the IRA shock is less shock when the commander of the Belfast Brigade for many years was Deputy First Minister and Education Minister.
Go ask people scared to go out at night whats has the biggest impact on their lives. The visible lack of police officers? Or a story in the Sun about what Corbyn said a decade ago?0 -
Corbyn calling on PM to resign I see - a blatant stunt I'd hope not to work, but obviously its for the core support, who'll love it, but hopefully not others. Criticism might be valid, and necessary, but demands for resignations are rarely done except for partisan point scoring, and little to do with any culpability. If there is some too, that's just a bonus.0
-
Nutshell.brokenwheel said:
He can't protest against himself. I don't know why he would want to win.Essexit said:It's almost as if Corbyn doesn't want to win.
0 -
I think yougov is on a kamikaze mission at the momentAndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
I imagine that wearing fake vests (as I think all 3 were?) is intended to induce a "suicide by cop" outcome? Can't think of any other reason. Not that it makes any difference to the police response - because there's no knowing whether the vest is fake or not.RochdalePioneers said:
Not all of them have vests. We're also raiding other addresses and making more arrests. Good. Arrest the bastards, drain them dry of info. Not bothered what happens to them after that.Alanbrooke said:
who in their right mind is going to walk up to a bloke wearing an exploisives vest and ask him to surrender ?RochdalePioneers said:Shoot to kill is simple. If there is no alternative then fine, do it. If there is any chance of safely protecting the public and leaving them alive then that HAS to be the best option.
These jihadists are a brilliant source of intelligence. A thorough interrogation is something we should be aiming for if possible.
this is like WW2 in the Pacific where they shot the Japs rather than take them prisoner0 -
Death of Lib Dems having an impact or greatly exaggerated?Casino_Royale said:
Massive WTF.AndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Didn't even happen at the peak of Blair's prowess.0 -
I think it's safe to say that the YouGov model is about as credible as Jeremy Corbyn saying he would be tough on terror.Casino_Royale said:
Massive WTF.AndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Didn't even happen at the peak of Blair's prowess.0 -
Hammond or Rudd depending who has more support in cabinet, probably RuddJonathan said:
Wonder who would get the job in this purely hypothetical situation. One of Rudd, Johnson or Hammond I guess, with Rudd probably having the best claim today.dyedwoolie said:
The cabinet would agree who would take the role of PM and the Queen would summon them.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?
Post election they would continue as PM if they commanded the confidence of Parliament and the Tories would have to sort out who was the leader of the party. Major was PM but not leader of the party after he resigned in 1995 until reelected by the PCP.0 -
Are you saying those attacks could have been stopped if we had more PCSOs? Don't be silly, man. No amount of Police Officers could stop a determined attack by anyone.
Corbyn has spent his whole career giving succour to our enemies, then performs an absurd u-turn 3 days before a GE, on the behest of Seamus Milne. Please.
If you didn't have a prior commitment to Theresa May being right on this, there's no way you'd come up with the idea that 'no amount of police officers could stop a determined attack by anyone'. We've had warnings from people who actually know what they're talking about on exactly this issue:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/london-terror-attack-bridge-borough-latest-firearms-officer-government-wrong-police-cuts-theresa-may-a7772506.html
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-5?r=UK&IR=T
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-police-cuts-slammed-by-jim-gamble-former-northern-ireland-counter-terror-chief_uk_5934603ee4b02478cb9cb0dd
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-34877031/police-cuts-terror-response-warning-to-theresa-may
0 -
Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.0 -
-
Sedgefield, Bolsover or Islington N?Casino_Royale said:Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.0 -
Labour ahead in Canterbury ?
I have NEVER heard so much tripe in all my life.0 -
@PolhomeEditor: Keir Starmer: The fault lies with the terrorists on this occasion and on every occasion.0
-
Sedgefield would be eye-catching and encouraging (for Tories).Jonathan said:
Sedgefield, Bolsover or Islington N?Casino_Royale said:Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.0 -
Wrong, today's ICM actually has 15% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and only 11% of 2015 Tory voters going LabourMarkSenior said:
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,HYUFD said:
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015Cyan said:
Ooh...is something about to come out?Scott_P said:Yes Corbyn is channelling Hilton...
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too
https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/0 -
Just got the final-week leaflet from our (excellent) local Lib Dem candidate. Majors on the NHS; also covers dementia tax and school funding. Not a single mention of Brexit anywhere on it.0
-
They are both at 300 on Betfair.dyedwoolie said:
Hammond or Rudd depending who has more support in cabinet, probably RuddJonathan said:
Wonder who would get the job in this purely hypothetical situation. One of Rudd, Johnson or Hammond I guess, with Rudd probably having the best claim today.dyedwoolie said:
The cabinet would agree who would take the role of PM and the Queen would summon them.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?
Post election they would continue as PM if they commanded the confidence of Parliament and the Tories would have to sort out who was the leader of the party. Major was PM but not leader of the party after he resigned in 1995 until reelected by the PCP.0 -
Laura Kuenssberg was serving CCHQ as usual when she sneered that the Tories would have to elect a new leader within three days. If Theresa May resigned today, she would be asked to stay on as caretaker.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?
If May chucked the nuclear button down and said "The hell with you all!" - or if the revelation was so bad that she had no option but to leave immediately in abject disgrace - the monarch might ask David Cameron to be short-term caretaker. Or it could be Philip Hammond.0 -
Bolsover?Casino_Royale said:Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.0 -
If it's a decapitation strategy I'd say Islington South or Hayes and Harlington, the latter having the biggest UKIP vote to eat. Gunning for Thornberry or McDonnell?Jonathan said:
Sedgefield, Bolsover or Islington N?Casino_Royale said:Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.
Con gain Bootle?
0 -
-
Yeah I'm not tipping it, I'm discussing with Jonathan a highly unlikely what if.Barnesian said:
They are both at 300 on Betfair.dyedwoolie said:
Hammond or Rudd depending who has more support in cabinet, probably RuddJonathan said:
Wonder who would get the job in this purely hypothetical situation. One of Rudd, Johnson or Hammond I guess, with Rudd probably having the best claim today.dyedwoolie said:
The cabinet would agree who would take the role of PM and the Queen would summon them.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?
Post election they would continue as PM if they commanded the confidence of Parliament and the Tories would have to sort out who was the leader of the party. Major was PM but not leader of the party after he resigned in 1995 until reelected by the PCP.0 -
Are you saying those attacks could have been stopped if we had more PCSOs? Don't be silly, man. No amount of Police Officers could stop a determined attack by anyone.Winstanley said:
Corbyn has spent his whole career giving succour to our enemies, then performs an absurd u-turn 3 days before a GE, on the behest of Seamus Milne. Please.
If you didn't have a prior commitment to Theresa May being right on this, there's no way you'd come up with the idea that 'no amount of police officers could stop a determined attack by anyone'. We've had warnings from people who actually know what they're talking about on exactly this issue:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/london-terror-attack-bridge-borough-latest-firearms-officer-government-wrong-police-cuts-theresa-may-a7772506.html
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-5?r=UK&IR=T
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-police-cuts-slammed-by-jim-gamble-former-northern-ireland-counter-terror-chief_uk_5934603ee4b02478cb9cb0dd
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-34877031/police-cuts-terror-response-warning-to-theresa-may
No amount of any officers, armed or unarmed, could stop every single attack, it's simply impossible. One determined person could sneak through, no matter what the circumstances.
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
0 -
An adult speaks.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Keir Starmer: The fault lies with the terrorists on this occasion and on every occasion.
0 -
My neighboring seat-no way this will happen. Brazier is popular amongst the Oldies and is seen as a good constituency MP (personally i dont like him) the labour candidate is not great.AndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Brazier will walk this and i would not waste any money on the Lab candidate.0 -
Canterbury was blessed by a visit from the bountiful Lady Nugee on Friday, accompanied by throng of faithful Islingtonians.Jason said:
I think it's safe to say that the YouGov model is about as credible as Jeremy Corbyn saying he would be tough on terror.Casino_Royale said:
Massive WTF.AndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Didn't even happen at the peak of Blair's prowess.
Perhaps she believes The Labour candidate will fare better than she did in 2001.
Personally, I wouldn't put money on it.0 -
Rudd seems to be more in favour with TM. Which might suggest she wouldn't get it if TM is discredited?dyedwoolie said:
Hammond or Rudd depending who has more support in cabinet, probably RuddJonathan said:
Wonder who would get the job in this purely hypothetical situation. One of Rudd, Johnson or Hammond I guess, with Rudd probably having the best claim today.dyedwoolie said:
The cabinet would agree who would take the role of PM and the Queen would summon them.Jonathan said:So, mad but curious question. What if something happened that caused Theresa May to resign as PM/Tory Leader today.
Whilst hugely unlikely (and doesn't have to be May in this hypothetical case), but wonder what would happen if a Tory PM had to go. She doesn't have a deputy in the same way as Corbyn.
Could the Tory party elect a new leader and would the Queen appoint her in a day? Who might it be?
Post election they would continue as PM if they commanded the confidence of Parliament and the Tories would have to sort out who was the leader of the party. Major was PM but not leader of the party after he resigned in 1995 until reelected by the PCP.
IMO spreadsheet Phil is still a safe pair of hands and Amber Rudd is awful but who am I to guess the minds of Tory MPs?0 -
-
FINALLY someone with a red rosette gives the correct response.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Keir Starmer: The fault lies with the terrorists on this occasion and on every occasion.
0 -
I see Amber Rudd is still losing Hastings too....Casino_Royale said:
Massive WTF.AndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Didn't even happen at the peak of Blair's prowess.
*titter*0 -
Nope.KentRising said:
Bolsover?Casino_Royale said:Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.
If you're a Tory party member in the South, you've probably received the same email.0 -
Pulpstar said:
Labour ahead in Canterbury ?
I have NEVER heard so much tripe in all my life.
Momentum students gaming the system much?0 -
FINALLY someone with any rosette gives the correct response.Sandpit said:
FINALLY someone with a red rosette gives the correct response.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Keir Starmer: The fault lies with the terrorists on this occasion and on every occasion.
0 -
EDIT - Hove?Casino_Royale said:
Nope.KentRising said:
Bolsover?Casino_Royale said:Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.
If you're a Tory party member in the South, you've probably received the same email.0 -
There are also 7,000 UKIP votes from 2015 for the Tories to squeeze.RepublicanTory said:
My neighboring seat-no way this will happen. Brazier is popular amongst the Oldies and is seen as a good constituency MP (personally i dont like him) the labour candidate is not great.AndyJS said:YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Brazier will walk this and i would not waste any money on the Lab candidate.
Brazier held on in 1997 so doubt he will be going this time.0 -
It's Hayes and Harlington isn't It? 37% UKIP and Tory but a masssive 60% for McDonnell.Casino_Royale said:
Nope.KentRising said:
Bolsover?Casino_Royale said:Email just received of May and Boris planning a rally in a surprising Labour seat tomorrow.
That won't be by accident.
If you're a Tory party member in the South, you've probably received the same email.0
