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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics
What to make of the polling? Are the Conservatives out of sight or are we in hung Parliament territory? Everyone has their own theory and many of them are contradictory. I’m not proposing in this thread to go into the question of whether the young or previous non-voters are going to unleash a crimson tide. This is fast becoming a question of theology rather than psephology, at least until Thursday.
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http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/30/why-mr-corbyns-plan-to-win-the-next-election-by-signing-up-non-voters-might-be-flawed/
I suppose you are betting against them winning Ynys Mon (where they are favoured) or Cerdigion (where they are competitive).
I do think the three seats they have are fairly safe though. When you look at the regional polling for their "strongholds", I think the regions as defined aren't helpful. "North Wales" has 9 seats, and only three of them have Plaid being historically competitive. In parts of NE Wales they struggle to save the deposit.
Similarly "Mid and West Wales" covers 8 seats, only a couple of which would have any Plaid history, and some of which like Montgomeryshire have Plaid losing their deposit.
So the regional splits don't tell you much, but I would have thought that there is no chance they lose the two in the predominatly Welsh speaking areas, and Camarthen East should be fairly safe as well
On your second point, it might not be a direct transfer.
A lesson Labour failed to learn post Blair (although that was arguably more complicated as he had arguably far less of a secure base among the Labour core vote).
Remember, even if the polls are absolutely correct, the Conservatives are still polling at higher levels than they were before the campaign started.
That said, she has made some very serious mistakes of which the Dementia tax was just one example.
Should she win the GE with a good solid majority, i.e. one of 80 seats or more, she will deserve a second chance to shine. But she must hit the ground running and this must include clearing out some of the dead wood, i.e. 4 or more members of her present Cabinet and having the good grace and the good sense to re-introduce Gove at a senior level. Talent like his isn't in abundant supply within the Tory Party.
The gradual decline of two-party politics has always been analysed as part of a wider process of growing disillusion with politicians and the political establishment. There doesn't appear to be any reason nor much evidence for this process to have gone strikingly into reverse?
The argument that minor parties would be squeezed out by the two-party choice could have been made at any British GE, yet third parties have consistently polled above 20%. Third parties have done well in terms of votes both when there were big ideological differences between the two parties (1983) and when there were relatively few (1997).
By common consent the leadership of both Tory and Labour parties is seriously lacking.
Apart from the US, which is a more severe environment for third views even than here, there doesn't seem to a similar process underway elsewhere in the west? In most European countries new or non-establishment political voices are thriving.
When the election started the PB consensus was that Corbyn was so bad as to be destined for the low 20%s. Had we been able to foresee that the campaign was to expose so brutally May's shortcomings, I do not believe PB'ers would have put the Tories well above 40% regardless. It's all very strange.
Cheers Mr Meeks, betting on SNP seat numbers looks an interesting vein to tap into, admittedly well outside my normal comfort zone, but might give sub 47 seats a bash.
That said, I support Alastair's view of this election and have bet accordingly so perhaps I'm talking my book.
It will obliterate UKIP, PC is regional even within Wales, and there is not insignificant chance of the Greens losing Brighton. We may well be the only 3rd party left in England by 2022. By then we will have a new leader, and there will be a time expired Tory party as well as a financially incontinent Labour one.
This election came too soon for us, and Fallon has not had a good campaign, but by 2022 we will be the only ones onstage as alternatives to the big 2, outside Scotland.
Police say they now know who the attackers were - so stay tuned to the New York Times for the latest!
There comes a point where "more choice" becomes bewildering- and effectively "less" choice as the consumer/voter hasn't the time or inclination to sort between the multiple options - so the market corrects itself - perhaps that's what we're undergoing?
https://twitter.com/lewis_baston/status/871032302557691906
Though he too has cocked up.
I reckon about 40, which historically would have been considered tremendous for them.
Edit; just seen your reply. I hate autocorrect too!
Not long to go now. Will we have the inept, or the dangerous in charge? What a choice.
She might be value on next leader to quit indeed, given the paucity of alternatives to Farron and Corbyn's mind-bending stubbornness.
The Scottish Labour surge is interesting. They have gained something like 10% in the last couple of weeks going from low teens to low 20s. To put that in perspective that is something like 1.5% of their gain nationally and yet it is far from obvious what seats they are likely to pick up as a result.
East Lothian is one possibility, Edinburgh North and Leith is another but Labour risk having a spectacularly inefficient vote in Scotland in terms of seats. There will be a tipping point where large swathes of SNP seats turn red but I don't think we are at it yet. I think that would need the SNP below 40% and Labour pushing 30.
Of course, subsamples are subsamples. But still you have to wonder whether they are going to suffer a calamity.
Your leader, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have generated much name recognition
When TSE takes charge of PB editing will we have the inept historical references or the dangerous AV thread teasers?
A shocking prospect ....
http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2017-06-02/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-2017-general-election-night-coverage
That is, I cannot recall having such large variations in results between the polling companies. We still have to find an explanation for this.
As for Plaid Cymru, I think their 3 seats are relatively safe -- If one was to fall, I think it would be Arfon which has Bangor University within its boundaries. Labour did poorly in the local elections in North West Wales, so it would be an amazing result for Labour if they achieved it.
The way I am seeing this at the moment if turnout is in the low 60s there will be a solid Tory majority, probably close to 100. For every percentage point above 65% that majority is going to fall because more of the self declared have turned up.
If we had strong and stable leadership from OGH in the coming years I'm sure all would be well.
Just checked some odds, surprised the Lib Dems are all the way down at 1.44 for under 10% of the vote (Ladbrokes). Tempted to hedge my stake on Betfair, where 10-15% is 3.9.
However, not since they tightened up their act after 1992, although they have tended not to be very accurate (I think the smallest Labour lead in 1997 was 16 points - cf a final lead of 13 points).
There was an ICM that put Labour only 5 points ahead about 10 days before polling day.
In hindsight Corbyn has done reasonably well. There was always an untapped group of radical and idealistic young people who had the numbers but they were previously without a champion.
This time they'd sort of got one. Their ambitions had changed from arresting Pinochet making the world greener banning the bomb housing the homeless and feeding the poor to banning tuition fees making student grants bigger and other redistributions in their direction. Nonetheless it was a start and with anti Tories and traditional Labour voters they could have come close.
But as the election came into focus the reality of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary John McDonnell as Chancellor Long Bailey as Minister of Education and three quarters of Labour MPs recently in revolt reality bit.
This Labour goverment like so called radical ones before it was a chimera which is why it lost by a distance
If we'd known at the time they were treating their raw data in so cavalier a fashion, methinks we would have discounted them as a source.
It will take a decade at least to rebuild. I could easily the imagine fundamentalists spending that long agitating for a rejoin the EU policy the way some did over the euro before finally acknowledging reality.
Only goes to show they really are useless!
(OTOH of course, all the polls did show Labour ahead, which proved correct.)
Yes .... Vote OGH for
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I agree with brokenwheel - the issue is not necessarily that people self report inaccurately. It is that those being polled are not representative of those not being polled, and one area where they are not representative, particularly among the young (who may have less of an attachment to the concept of voting as a 'civic duty'?) is in likelihood to vote.
So, to take the young especially, if those participating in polls are overwhelmingly restricted to those who will vote (probably university educated and particularly incentivised by Corbyn's manifesto) then it is both likely that reported likelihood to vote will be very high, but also that turnout at the General Election will be very low.
I was prepared to give May a chance because she wasn't Cameron but she's every bit as vacuous. I have absolutely no idea what she believes in.
On the election: Rudd's idiotic comments on encryption are indefensibly stupid.
Corbyn's claims in yesterday's speech are at odds with everything he's said and done for decades.
*sighs*
The utility of polling is showing temporal trends. All polls have shown much the same narrowing, whatever the baseline. Will that trend continue for another few days, or swingback? I reckon the latter, not because of the London attack, but because that is the usual pattern.
Ms Apocalypse is right though, a Lab majority is ridiculously implausible. NOM is the only outcome other than Con majority, and that would probably mean Con minority government.
'Here are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others.'
Culture secretary like a rabbit in headlights. cant answer basic questions.
1) Why did theresa may cut 20,000 police officers?
2) Why did theresa may tell the police federation on 20th may 2015 that they were scaremongering the public saying that people would be unsafe to terrorism?
3) Why do you allow saudi arabia to fund mosques in this country?
traincrash interview
And it gets worse. Like everyone else the self-reporters weight their sample to be representative of census demographics, but this then exaggerates how unrepresentative the sample is if you originally have hardly any of the ~30+% of non-voters. You might fill your quota of 100 18-24 females, but if they are all card-carrying Labour members then you aren't going to be giving an accurate assessment of that group's VI. Or ror instance re:turnout certain demographics don't vote much, most lean Labour. Now if your sample has the right number of these people but they are all voters then you are vastly over-reporting likelihood of this group to turn out.
3 terrorist attacks in 3 weeks and the government is not proposing an increase in officers. answer a straight question.