YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
Didn't even happen at the peak of Blair's prowess.
I think it's safe to say that the YouGov model is about as credible as Jeremy Corbyn saying he would be tough on terror.
At seat level the YG model has quite a few glitches like this. They are relying on only about 75 panellists in each seat, supplemented by demographic data copying across the preferences of people from the surrounding area.
Nevertheless this isn't a reason why the national Labour/Tory balance should have any error. They are of course one of the pollsters that take people at their word in saying that they will vote.
It isn't totally impossible. Urban Canterbury has more students per head of population than anywhere else in Europe and Whitstable, the other urban part of the seat, is drifting Labour due to its Islington-on-Sea reputation.
YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
I'm sorry but the Trump/Corbyn parallels only go so far. In reality their voter base is somewhat different.
This is of course true, but oddly the floating voters they're fighting for are pretty much the same: White, low-information, middle-aged-to-elderly, formerly left-voting...
How did we become a world in which low-information voters have the most power?
It took decades of determined Gramscian engineering of low educational standards by the NUT and their fellow travellers in higher education to produce the requisite quotient of cannon fodder for the Left. Assuming that the low-info voters (voters?) of whom we so rudely speak indeed have the power, which is debatable. So far.
YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
"An investigation into the foreign funding of extremist Islamist groups may never be published, the Home Office has admitted."
"(A)lthough it was due to be published in the spring of 2016, it has not been completed and may never be made public due to its 'sensitive' contents."
"It is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which the UK recently approved £3.5bn worth of arms export licences to."
"A spokesperson from the Home Office told The Independent a decision on the publication of the report would be taken 'after the election by the next government'."
That's if Wikileaks doesn't release it tomorrow, eh?
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
Ooh...is something about to come out?
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,
Wrong, today's ICM actually has 15% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and only 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
You are incorrect , you are looking at Table 4 after ICM have done there turnout adjustments not the actual changes given in Table 3 which are as I have said 72 to 64 .
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
Yes thank you for your anecdote but there is still a net Labour to Tory swing in the polls thanks to working class Labour Leave voters in the North
Corbyn calling on PM to resign I see - a blatant stunt I'd hope not to work, but obviously its for the core support, who'll love it, but hopefully not others. Criticism might be valid, and necessary, but demands for resignations are rarely done except for partisan point scoring, and little to do with any culpability. If there is some too, that's just a bonus.
I think Corbyn wanting the PM to resign is a stupid thing to say. We have an election on Thursday and the people will either vote her in again or she will be kicked out. Corbyn trying to neutralise his weakness on terrorism and public safety is a bit pathetic.
That means the new YouGov election model is a bit on the rubbish side.
Not necessarily. I don't think the model sets out to predict individual seats, but the overall result. In that respect it is much like the 2010 and 2015 exit polls that both got many individual seats wrong, but the overall result right.
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
Ooh...is something about to come out?
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,
Wrong, today's ICM actually has 15% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and only 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
You are incorrect , you are looking at Table 4 after ICM have done there turnout adjustments not the actual changes given in Table 3 which are as I have said 72 to 64 .
Table 4 is the correct table to read based on their methodology.
Corbyn calling on PM to resign I see - a blatant stunt I'd hope not to work, but obviously its for the core support, who'll love it, but hopefully not others. Criticism might be valid, and necessary, but demands for resignations are rarely done except for partisan point scoring, and little to do with any culpability. If there is some too, that's just a bonus.
I think Corbyn wanting the PM to resign is a stupid thing to say. We have an election on Thursday and the people will either vote her in again or she will be kicked out. Corbyn trying to neutralise his weakness on terrorism and public safety is a bit pathetic.
He doesn't want or expect the PM to resign. Attaching that eye-catching demand was the price necessary to get the issue of police cuts high up the media agenda. Which it has.
We can debate the extent to which police numbers are relevant, but the debate is at least as relevant as some of the attacks the Tories have been trying to land.
Except that is when the numbers are close together *and turn out to be wrong* that they get accused of herding. And when they are all over the place, it's not hugely unfair to accuse them of being all over the place...
The real reason to feel sorry for them is that they are doing a tough job with inadequate tools.
YouGov's election model has Labour slightly ahead in Canterbury where the Tories have a majority of almost 10,000 votes and the result last time was Con 43% Lab 25%.
Everyone will find out about the rally tomorrow night anyway.
Two observations I'd make about it:
(1) Boris is clearly, now, more of a Number 2 to May than Hammond is. Rudd isn't far behind, but Boris has been over the airwaves *a lot* over the last week - make of that what you will (2) This seat strikes me as having echoes of Dave's grand tour of Lib Dem semi-safe seats 72 hours before the vote in GE2015 - clearly CCHQ has data of the Tories doing rather better than expected in some Labour seats, particularly amongst WWC voters
Are you saying those attacks could have been stopped if we had more PCSOs? Don't be silly, man. No amount of Police Officers could stop a determined attack by anyone.
Corbyn has spent his whole career giving succour to our enemies, then performs an absurd u-turn 3 days before a GE, on the behest of Seamus Milne. Please.
If you didn't have a prior commitment to Theresa May being right on this, there's no way you'd come up with the idea that 'no amount of police officers could stop a determined attack by anyone'. We've had warnings from people who actually know what they're talking about on exactly this issue:
No amount of any officers, armed or unarmed, could stop every single attack, it's simply impossible. One determined person could sneak through, no matter what the circumstances.
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
Jim Gamble, Corbynista. Anonymous service firearm copper, must be a Corbynista. Various senior police figures making warnings long before the election was called, must be Corbynistas.
Corbyn was asked a question about whether he would support calls for May's resignation floating about from others, he didn't raise it. That's why this is so dangerous for Theresa May imo, Corbyn is only echoing something coming originally from voices that the average person will find deeply credible, especially in the context of heroic actions by police.
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
That's why the doing well/doing badly opinion is useless. These small businessmen and classic conservatives might well think May is doing badly and Corbyn is doing well. They'll vote for the former on Thursday.
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
Yes thank you for your anecdote but there is still a net Labour to Tory swing in the polls thanks to working class Labour Leave voters in the North
I predict a 50-125 conservative majority, but I have no confidence at all either in the polls or the conservative party. I think the right wing media have lost control of the whole narrative and anything can happen, including the unthinkable Corbyn victory.
Are you saying those attacks could have been stopped if we had more PCSOs? Don't be silly, man. No amount of Police Officers could stop a determined attack by anyone. Your Corbyn has spent his whole career giving succour to our enemies, then performs an absurd u-turn 3 days before a GE, on the behest of Seamus Milne. Please.
If you didn't have a prior commitment to Theresa May being right on this, there's no way you'd come up with the idea that 'no amount of police officers could stop a determined attack by anyone'. We've had warnings from people who actually know what they're talking about on exactly this issue:
About No amount of any officers, armed or unarmed, could stop every single attack, it's simply impossible. One determined person could sneak through, no matter what the circumstances
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
Well you should have got your mate May to support Control orders instead of buggering about.
That means the new YouGov election model is a bit on the rubbish side.
Constituency voted Remain, biggest Con to Lab swing in the South East in 2015
UKIP got 7,000 votes in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010. Where are they going to go this time?
Sure, I'm not saying Labour will win the seat, more that it isn't the totally mad claim some are claiming. If students turnout, Labour have a puncher's chance. More so in Canterbury than any similar seat due to proportion of students. And certainly more than the 33/1 chance some are offering.
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
Yes thank you for your anecdote but there is still a net Labour to Tory swing in the polls thanks to working class Labour Leave voters in the North
I predict a 50-125 conservative majority, but I have no confidence at all either in the polls or the conservative party. I think the right wing media have lost control of the whole narrative and anything can happen, including the unthinkable Corbyn victory.
There is no real evidence of any Tory to Labour movement as far as I can see and without that Corbyn will not win though I agree a 50 to 100 Tory majority is most likely
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
Ooh...is something about to come out?
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,
Wrong, today's ICM actually has 15% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and only 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
You are incorrect , you are looking at Table 4 after ICM have done there turnout adjustments not the actual changes given in Table 3 which are as I have said 72 to 64 .
Table 4 is the correct table to read based on their methodology.
Nope we are measuring actual switchers not how a pollster thinks they will actually switch based on suspect methodology .
"An investigation into the foreign funding of extremist Islamist groups may never be published, the Home Office has admitted."
"(A)lthough it was due to be published in the spring of 2016, it has not been completed and may never be made public due to its 'sensitive' contents."
"It is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which the UK recently approved £3.5bn worth of arms export licences to."
"A spokesperson from the Home Office told The Independent a decision on the publication of the report would be taken 'after the election by the next government'."
That's if Wikileaks doesn't release it tomorrow, eh?
"Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron among voices urging prime minister to publish delayed inquiry thought to target major UK weapons buyer following latest terror attack on British soil"
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
The business community is the most disenchanted with May. This is the first election for ages when the Tories haven't played the "letter from a hundred businesspeople" card in the broadsheets.
Business was mostly in the Remain wing of the Tories, they face the uncertainty of Brexit, and are unlikely to be impressed with many of the shifts May is making to try and appeal to the JaMs. The Economist magazine has endorsed the LibDems (which to be honest would be a more logical choice for your two guys).
It isn't totally impossible. Urban Canterbury has more students per head of population than anywhere else in Europe and Whitstable, the other urban part of the seat, is drifting Labour due to its Islington-on-Sea reputation.
Are you saying those attacks could have been stopped if we had more PCSOs? Don't be silly, man. No amount of Police Officers could stop a determined attack by anyone.
Corbyn has spent his whole career giving succour to our enemies, then performs an absurd u-turn 3 days before a GE, on the behest of Seamus Milne. Please.
If you didn't have a prior commitment to Theresa May being right on this, there's no way you'd come up with the idea that 'no amount of police officers could stop a determined attack by anyone'. We've had warnings from people who actually know what they're talking about on exactly this issue:
No amount of any officers, armed or unarmed, could stop every single attack, it's simply impossible. One determined person could sneak through, no matter what the circumstances.
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
Jim Gamble, Corbynista. Anonymous service firearm copper, must be a Corbynista. Various senior police figures making warnings long before the election was called, must be Corbynistas.
Corbyn was asked a question about whether he would support calls for May's resignation floating about from others, he didn't raise it. That's why this is so dangerous for Theresa May imo, Corbyn is only echoing something coming originally from voices that the average person will find deeply credible, especially in the context of heroic actions by police.
It was a stunt to deflect from Corbyn's terrorist appeasing, and nothing else. I'm sorry you can't see that.
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
Ooh...is something about to come out?
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,
Wrong, today's ICM actually has 15% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and only 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
You are incorrect , you are looking at Table 4 after ICM have done there turnout adjustments not the actual changes given in Table 3 which are as I have said 72 to 64 .
No you are incorrect because you are not looking at the proper headline poll numbers but the unturnout adjusted numbers which were as wrong in 2015 as they will be on Thursday
Having just checked you are even wrong on the unturnout adjusted figures which have 12% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
Interesting Boris will be there. CCHQ have clearly decided that his rather off message soundings over the last few days can be bought back in by massaging his ego.
Much as I like spreadsheet Phil he won't have the same appeal as Boris.
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
Ooh...is something about to come out?
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,
Wrong, today's ICM actually has 15% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and only 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
You are incorrect , you are looking at Table 4 after ICM have done there turnout adjustments not the actual changes given in Table 3 which are as I have said 72 to 64 .
Table 4 is the correct table to read based on their methodology.
Nope we are measuring actual switchers not how a pollster thinks they will actually switch based on suspect methodology .
Not if the sample is unrepresentative balls before the turnout model is applied, as ICM believe it is.
That means the new YouGov election model is a bit on the rubbish side.
Not necessarily. I don't think the model sets out to predict individual seats, but the overall result. In that respect it is much like the 2010 and 2015 exit polls that both got many individual seats wrong, but the overall result right.
In which case, why on earth publish individual seat forecasts?
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
The business community is the most disenchanted with May. This is the first election for ages when the Tories haven't played the "letter from a hundred businesspeople" card in the broadsheets.
Business was mostly in the Remain wing of the Tories, they face the uncertainty of Brexit, and are unlikely to be impressed with many of the shifts May is making to try and appeal to the JaMs. The Economist magazine has endorsed the LibDems (which to be honest would be a more logical choice for your two guys).
But are they going to back Labour with Corporation Tax to go up? But you are right business hasn't been vocal about backing the Tories this election in large part because of Brexit. Employment has been increasing under this government and the one before it, you would think the government would be promoting that more.
What it a mistake to not focus on the economy more in their manifesto?
"An investigation into the foreign funding of extremist Islamist groups may never be published, the Home Office has admitted."
"(A)lthough it was due to be published in the spring of 2016, it has not been completed and may never be made public due to its 'sensitive' contents."
"It is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which the UK recently approved £3.5bn worth of arms export licences to."
"A spokesperson from the Home Office told The Independent a decision on the publication of the report would be taken 'after the election by the next government'."
That's if Wikileaks doesn't release it tomorrow, eh?
"Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron among voices urging prime minister to publish delayed inquiry thought to target major UK weapons buyer following latest terror attack on British soil"
It isn't totally impossible. Urban Canterbury has more students per head of population than anywhere else in Europe and Whitstable, the other urban part of the seat, is drifting Labour due to its Islington-on-Sea reputation.
Labour available at 33/1 to win.
Have those students left Canterbury yet?
Don't believe so.
Canterbury constituency electorate is about 80,000. Student numbers are about 35,000. With the caveat not all are eligible to vote in General Elections. But still a huge chunk.
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
That's why the doing well/doing badly opinion is useless. These small businessmen and classic conservatives might well think May is doing badly and Corbyn is doing well. They'll vote for the former on Thursday.
For the first time ever I am still undecided who to vote for. I know the risks of corbyn and and far from being convinced the tories are what's best for the. Oh try. My choice is it better to have the country bankrupt in the next 5 years and people realise something seriously needs to be done (vote corbyn) or do we carry on in laalaa land not confronting the issues we face (vote may)
I strongly suspect there are lots like me, Tory, ukipper, that believe in individual responsibility. Low tax, small state but don't have anybody to vote for.
Completely off topic: If you're a serious music lover and are in London on GE day, whilst waiting for the exit poll to be released you can hear one of the very best up-and-coming lieder singers at the Wignore Hall: Anna Lucia Richter singing Schubert. She's absolutely stunning. Still plenty of tickets left, which is remarkable. Absolutely not to be missed.
I hope she won't mind when, at 10pm, a raucous cry goes up from the front stalls.
It isn't totally impossible. Urban Canterbury has more students per head of population than anywhere else in Europe and Whitstable, the other urban part of the seat, is drifting Labour due to its Islington-on-Sea reputation.
Labour available at 33/1 to win.
Have those students left Canterbury yet?
Yes, but obviously YG is working from the given addresses of their panelists.
Playing devil's advocate for YouGov, I am sure they would say that their model is not intended to be an individual seat-by-seat forecaster. We are looking at it that way, because of betting. YouGov has tried to use the reach of its panel (fifty times the size of a normal poll) plus its bank of local demographic data to try and get beyond the nornal headline VI of a poll to see how this might pan out at local level. If they have done the modelling right it is entirely reasonable to expect that YG will be picking up regional swings, and swings affecting particular demographics, better than any other poll.
I would therefore expect the YG Labour/Tory VI and projected seats to be more accurate than those derived from any poll. The one big weakness YG has is its assumption of self-certified intention to vote. It would be very interesting to know what the YG model would throw up if they fed in the ICM/ComRes assumption of likelihood to vote by denographic, based on 2015?
Except that is when the numbers are close together *and turn out to be wrong* that they get accused of herding. And when they are all over the place, it's not hugely unfair to accuse them of being all over the place...
The real reason to feel sorry for them is that they are doing a tough job with inadequate tools.
@PA: #Breaking Jeremy Corbyn says he backs similar calls by "very responsible people" who are "very worried" about her record
Ooh...is something about to come out?
May is probably in the lead at the moment, but she is not stable. A collapse of her support is more likely than a collapse of Labour's. The Tory attackers have already thrown everything they've got at Corbyn and he's still standing.
May's husband Philip works for Capital Group, which has a big presence in Saudi. Is that what's coming? Which clients does he manage relationships with?
Why? The Tories have consistently been over 40% for months, that will not change in 3 days, Corbyn is only up because he is squeezing the LDs and UKIP and the Greens, there is no net movement from Tory to Labour as most Tories won't touch him with a bargepole, indeed most polls show a small net movement from Labour to Tory since 2015
As for Hilton Cameron hates him.now after he backed Leave and now the rest of the Tory Party will hate him too
Even today's ICM poll had more 2015 Con voters moving to Labour than vice versa 72 to 64 ,
Wrong, today's ICM actually has 15% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and only 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
You are incorrect , you are looking at Table 4 after ICM have done there turnout adjustments not the actual changes given in Table 3 which are as I have said 72 to 64 .
Table 4 is the correct table to read based on their methodology.
Nope we are measuring actual switchers not how a pollster thinks they will actually switch based on suspect methodology .
Not if the sample is unrepresentative balls before the turnout model is applied, as ICM believe it is.
Table 3 is after adjustments for sampling errors but keep clutching at the straw that is the ICM/Comres turnout model
That means the new YouGov election model is a bit on the rubbish side.
Not necessarily. I don't think the model sets out to predict individual seats, but the overall result. In that respect it is much like the 2010 and 2015 exit polls that both got many individual seats wrong, but the overall result right.
In which case, why on earth publish individual seat forecasts?
Well quite. I guess it is open (shows workings) and grabs the odd headline too.
That means the new YouGov election model is a bit on the rubbish side.
Constituency voted Remain, biggest Con to Lab swing in the South East in 2015
UKIP got 7,000 votes in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010. Where are they going to go this time?
Sure, I'm not saying Labour will win the seat, more that it isn't the totally mad claim some are claiming. If students turnout, Labour have a puncher's chance. More so in Canterbury than any similar seat due to proportion of students. And certainly more than the 33/1 chance some are offering.
By my reckoning the Conservatives (or Unionists or Independent Conservatives) have held Canterbury and its predecessors unbroken since 1841. They go into the election with a majority of over 18% from last time even without wondering where the 13.6% for UKIP who aren't standing this time have gone to. To have an 18% majority and a seat held for nearly two centuries turned over would indicate a landslide for Labour trumping even 1997.
Some thoughts on the campaign in my seat in case anyone is interested...
I live in the North West in a Labour-held seat. It is number 80-something on the Tories target list.
In 2015 we got 2 or 3 leaflets each from Labour and the Conservatives. We also received some leaflets from other parties (one each from UKIP and the LibDems IIRC). No major figure from any party visited the constituency. It all felt fairly perfunctory.
This time the Conservative campaign went into overdrive early. We heard so much from them before Labour got going that I was beginning to wonder if we were going to hear from Labour at all. We have now received two leaflets from Labour, one of which was addressed to me personally. Only one of these leaflets came within the last two weeks. Neither of them mentions Jeremy Corbyn at all.
I have lost count of the number of communications we have received from the Conservatives. We have received 4 leaflets from them in the last two weeks, 3 of them addressed to me and/or my wife personally. All four of them include messages from Theresa May. She is front and centre in the personally addressed leaflets and takes up the majority of the other leaflet, although that one leads on linking the Labour candidate to Corbyn. The most recent personally addressed leaflet arrived today, the one before arrived on Friday. Theresa May has also visited the constituency and campaigned door to door.
Unlike last time we haven't heard anything from the minor parties. UKIP aren't standing this time. Note that ex-UKIP voters won't be enough to win this seat for the Conservatives. Apart from UKIP all the minor parties lost their deposits last time.
I can't comment on canvassing. Due to our location I would not expect to receive visits from canvassers and telephone canvassers would be blocked.
Before moving here I have always lived in safe Conservative seats so I have nothing to judge this against. But the fact we are being bombarded with so much personalised material by the Conservatives this close to polling day suggests to me that their private polling is telling them this seat is in play. If that is the case they must think we are still in landslide territory. However, if the published polls are correct, even looking at the best polls for the Conservatives, this seat isn't anywhere near being in play.
What do I think is happening here? I really don't know. But the views I hear being expressed about Corbyn suggest the Conservatives may be in with a chance.
Are you saying those attacks could have been stopped if we had more PCSOs? Don't be silly, man. No amount of Police Officers could stop a determined attack by anyone.
Corbyn has spent his whole career giving succour to our enemies, then performs an absurd u-turn 3 days before a GE, on the behest of Seamus Milne. Please.
If you didn't have a prior commitment to Theresa May being right on this, there's no way you'd come up with the idea that 'no amount of police officers could stop a determined attack by anyone'. We've had warnings from people who actually know what they're talking about on exactly this issue:
No amount of any officers, armed or unarmed, could stop every single attack, it's simply impossible. One determined person could sneak through, no matter what the circumstances.
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
Jim Gamble, Corbynista. Anonymous service firearm copper, must be a Corbynista. Various senior police figures making warnings long before the election was called, must be Corbynistas.
Corbyn was asked a question about whether he would support calls for May's resignation floating about from others, he didn't raise it. That's why this is so dangerous for Theresa May imo, Corbyn is only echoing something coming originally from voices that the average person will find deeply credible, especially in the context of heroic actions by police.
It was a stunt to deflect from Corbyn's terrorist appeasing, and nothing else. I'm sorry you can't see that.
--
If you read the text of what Corbyn said, it doesn't sound like a stunt. It certainly wasn't planned. He was asked a question about whether he agrees with others who have called for her resignation, rather than something he raised, and he used it to hang a criticism of police cuts on rather than particularly talk about the PM. Unless the firearm units have affiliated to Momentum I don't think most reasonable people will see their criticism of police cuts as a stunt to boost Corbyn.
Based on their latest numbers, YouGov have the Tories at a mid-range forecast of 306 seats, which is approximately 75 seats behind a total of around 380 seats, implied by ICM's latest poll. Never in the history of British General Election polling has there been such a divergence between two major and respected polling firms with just three days to go before the big day. It's surely too late now for serious herding, we're looking at blood-letting here on a very serious scale with major reputations being laid bare.
That means the new YouGov election model is a bit on the rubbish side.
Constituency voted Remain, biggest Con to Lab swing in the South East in 2015
UKIP got 7,000 votes in 2015, up from 1,000 in 2010. Where are they going to go this time?
Sure, I'm not saying Labour will win the seat, more that it isn't the totally mad claim some are claiming. If students turnout, Labour have a puncher's chance. More so in Canterbury than any similar seat due to proportion of students. And certainly more than the 33/1 chance some are offering.
By my reckoning the Conservatives (or Unionists or Independent Conservatives) have held Canterbury and its predecessors unbroken since 1841. They go into the election with a majority of over 18% from last time even without wondering where the 13.6% for UKIP who aren't standing this time have gone to. To have an 18% majority and a seat held for nearly two centuries turned over would indicate a landslide for Labour trumping even 1997.
I used to work at the University of Kent (mostly in Medway, occasionally at Canterbury). I know the city very well. I've lived near it for much of my life.
The effect of the students is easy to overestimate. They didn't turn the city red in term time in 2015. UKC works on a semester system, which means that many will have finished their exams and gone home by the end of May. I don't know but I think Christchurch is the same (plus Christchurch does a lot of vocational courses and a proportion of their students will be out on work placements at any given time). Of those that are left many will not even live in the city or even in the constituency, because student accommodation is in short supply and very expensive.
Julian Brazier got over 42% of the vote last time and his Labour rival got just over 24%. UKIP got 13% and aren't standing this time. So do your own research, but if you bet on Labour to win Canterbury, you are going to lose your money.
"An investigation into the foreign funding of extremist Islamist groups may never be published, the Home Office has admitted."
"(A)lthough it was due to be published in the spring of 2016, it has not been completed and may never be made public due to its 'sensitive' contents."
"It is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which the UK recently approved £3.5bn worth of arms export licences to."
"A spokesperson from the Home Office told The Independent a decision on the publication of the report would be taken 'after the election by the next government'."
That's if Wikileaks doesn't release it tomorrow, eh?
"Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron among voices urging prime minister to publish delayed inquiry thought to target major UK weapons buyer following latest terror attack on British soil"
Yesss!
The Tories have lost this election.
I think you've lost your mind.
Why do you think the publication of the report on Saudi terror funding has been blocked? It was supposed to be published last year.
No government that is soft on the Saudi princes can seriously be called hard on terror. Corbyn and Farron are right to press on this. This could well be the issue that decides this election.
Meanwhile my understanding is that the Capital Group, whose most famous senior employee is Philip May, has a very significant presence in Riyadh.
"An investigation into the foreign funding of extremist Islamist groups may never be published, the Home Office has admitted."
"(A)lthough it was due to be published in the spring of 2016, it has not been completed and may never be made public due to its 'sensitive' contents."
"It is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which the UK recently approved £3.5bn worth of arms export licences to."
"A spokesperson from the Home Office told The Independent a decision on the publication of the report would be taken 'after the election by the next government'."
That's if Wikileaks doesn't release it tomorrow, eh?
"Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron among voices urging prime minister to publish delayed inquiry thought to target major UK weapons buyer following latest terror attack on British soil"
Yesss!
The Tories have lost this election.
I think you've lost your mind.
Why do you think the publication of the report on Saudi terror funding has been blocked? It was supposed to be published last year.
No government that is soft on the Saudi princes can seriously be called hard on terror. Corbyn and Farron are right to press on this. This could well be the issue that decides this election.
Meanwhile my understanding is that the Capital Group, whose most famous senior employee is Philip May, has a very significant presence in Riyadh.
"Lock her up"?
Cyan - what would JC do? Doesn't he advocate talking to people like the Saudis not ostracising them?
Incidentally, the bizarre digression into Labour's chances in Canterbury reminds me of one of the most interesting Parliamentary candidates of all time:
I think that mass hysteria has broken out. Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn. What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
That's why the doing well/doing badly opinion is useless. These small businessmen and classic conservatives might well think May is doing badly and Corbyn is doing well. They'll vote for the former on Thursday.
For the first time ever I am still undecided who to vote for. I know the risks of corbyn and and far from being convinced the tories are what's best for the. Oh try. My choice is it better to have the country bankrupt in the next 5 years and people realise something seriously needs to be done (vote corbyn) or do we carry on in laalaa land not confronting the issues we face (vote may)
I strongly suspect there are lots like me, Tory, ukipper, that believe in individual responsibility. Low tax, small state but don't have anybody to vote for.
You describe yourself as "Tory, ukipper, that believe in individual responsibility. Low tax, small state". You may find May a bit poor, but you are no more floating than a lead weight.
"An investigation into the foreign funding of extremist Islamist groups may never be published, the Home Office has admitted."
"(A)lthough it was due to be published in the spring of 2016, it has not been completed and may never be made public due to its 'sensitive' contents."
"It is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which the UK recently approved £3.5bn worth of arms export licences to."
"A spokesperson from the Home Office told The Independent a decision on the publication of the report would be taken 'after the election by the next government'."
That's if Wikileaks doesn't release it tomorrow, eh?
"Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron among voices urging prime minister to publish delayed inquiry thought to target major UK weapons buyer following latest terror attack on British soil"
Yesss!
The Tories have lost this election.
I think you've lost your mind.
Why do you think the publication of the report on Saudi terror funding has been blocked? It was supposed to be published last year.
No government that is soft on the Saudi princes can seriously be called hard on terror. Corbyn and Farron are right to press on this. This could well be the issue that decides this election.
Meanwhile my understanding is that the Capital Group, whose most famous senior employee is Philip May, has a very significant presence in Riyadh.
"Lock her up"?
Cyan - what would JC do? Doesn't he advocate talking to people like the Saudis not ostracising them?
The most salient thing he's doing is calling for the release of the report that Theresa May is trying to sit on. That would put the whole question of Saudi funding of terror far more out into the open. Which could only be a good thing.
What else can it have been but Saudi pressure that stopped the report from coming out? Did they threaten not to sign such a big weapons deal?
The level of astroturfing here at the moment is a bit much. I can't quite seem the point of it on a forum full of political activists and anoraks, chances of changing a vote, zero, chances of being laughed at for weeks after the election when they suddenly stop posting, quite high, I mean we are still laughing about astroturfers for the 2015 GE
Before moving here I have always lived in safe Conservative seats so I have nothing to judge this against. But the fact we are being bombarded with so much personalised material by the Conservatives this close to polling day suggests to me that their private polling is telling them this seat is in play. If that is the case they must think we are still in landslide territory. However, if the published polls are correct, even looking at the best polls for the Conservatives, this seat isn't anywhere near being in play.
What do I think is happening here? I really don't know. But the views I hear being expressed about Corbyn suggest the Conservatives may be in with a chance.
The Tories have money to burn so they're even phone canvassing in Nottingham North, which is REALLY not in play. If you've got £10 million lying around, why not? But also, the direct mails will have ben set up weeks ago when they really did think they had a shot at sweeping the board. I would be more impressed if you were getting hand-delivered leaflets at this point - that really would indicate that they still thought it was a target.
The level of astroturfing here at the moment is a bit much. I can't quite seem the point of it on a forum full of political activists and anoraks, chances of changing a vote, zero, chances of being laughed at for weeks after the election when they suddenly stop posting, quite high, I mean we are still laughing about astroturfers for the 2015 GE
I'm not sure there are that many... But the output of even a few can be very high!
Even accounting of their bat-shit crazy economic proposals, putting forward Diane Abbot to head the nation's security apparatus must be the scariest aspect of Labour getting power?
Comments
Nevertheless this isn't a reason why the national Labour/Tory balance should have any error. They are of course one of the pollsters that take people at their word in saying that they will vote.
Labour available at 33/1 to win.
I honestly have no idea how YouGov are running their model, but it's absurd.
Like saying Helen Grant might lose her seat last time.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/871701859031027712
Bring back Gove.
Council elected in 2015, including the North Thanet part, was C: 31, Lab: 3, LD: 3, UKIP: 2
Two conversations with small businessmen this weekend. Both classic conservative voters. Both undecided about how they are going to vote. In both cases unpersuaded and disappointed in May. But this means that they are seriously considering voting for Corbyn.
What the feck. Reality has been suspended or something. In normal times no one would consider voting for Corbyn.
The tories are supposedly the strong and stable party, but they have been saying it so much they have become like a parody of themselves. People don't actually see them as the strong and stable party.
"An investigation into the foreign funding of extremist Islamist groups may never be published, the Home Office has admitted."
"(A)lthough it was due to be published in the spring of 2016, it has not been completed and may never be made public due to its 'sensitive' contents."
"It is thought to focus on Saudi Arabia, which the UK recently approved £3.5bn worth of arms export licences to."
"A spokesperson from the Home Office told The Independent a decision on the publication of the report would be taken 'after the election by the next government'."
That's if Wikileaks doesn't release it tomorrow, eh?
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/mike-smithsons-libdem-tip-letters/
We can debate the extent to which police numbers are relevant, but the debate is at least as relevant as some of the attacks the Tories have been trying to land.
And when they are all over the place, it's not hugely unfair to accuse them of being all over the place...
The real reason to feel sorry for them is that they are doing a tough job with inadequate tools.
Two observations I'd make about it:
(1) Boris is clearly, now, more of a Number 2 to May than Hammond is. Rudd isn't far behind, but Boris has been over the airwaves *a lot* over the last week - make of that what you will
(2) This seat strikes me as having echoes of Dave's grand tour of Lib Dem semi-safe seats 72 hours before the vote in GE2015 - clearly CCHQ has data of the Tories doing rather better than expected in some Labour seats, particularly amongst WWC voters
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/london-terror-attack-bridge-borough-latest-firearms-officer-government-wrong-police-cuts-theresa-may-a7772506.html
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-5?r=UK&IR=T
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-police-cuts-slammed-by-jim-gamble-former-northern-ireland-counter-terror-chief_uk_5934603ee4b02478cb9cb0dd
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-34877031/police-cuts-terror-response-warning-to-theresa-may
No amount of any officers, armed or unarmed, could stop every single attack, it's simply impossible. One determined person could sneak through, no matter what the circumstances.
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
Jim Gamble, Corbynista. Anonymous service firearm copper, must be a Corbynista. Various senior police figures making warnings long before the election was called, must be Corbynistas.
Corbyn was asked a question about whether he would support calls for May's resignation floating about from others, he didn't raise it. That's why this is so dangerous for Theresa May imo, Corbyn is only echoing something coming originally from voices that the average person will find deeply credible, especially in the context of heroic actions by police.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/london-terror-attack-bridge-borough-latest-firearms-officer-government-wrong-police-cuts-theresa-may-a7772506.html
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-5?r=UK&IR=T
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-police-cuts-slammed-by-jim-gamble-former-northern-ireland-counter-terror-chief_uk_5934603ee4b02478cb9cb0dd
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-34877031/police-cuts-terror-response-warning-to-theresa-may
About
No amount of any officers, armed or unarmed, could stop every single attack, it's simply impossible. One determined person could sneak through, no matter what the circumstances
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
Well you should have got your mate May to support Control orders instead of buggering about.
https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/871704608669917185
http://imgur.com/a/zY21g
"Terror funding report: Calls grow for release of 'sensitive' Home Office document 'pointing finger at Saudi Arabia'".
"Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron among voices urging prime minister to publish delayed inquiry thought to target major UK weapons buyer following latest terror attack on British soil"
Yesss!
The Tories have lost this election.
Business was mostly in the Remain wing of the Tories, they face the uncertainty of Brexit, and are unlikely to be impressed with many of the shifts May is making to try and appeal to the JaMs. The Economist magazine has endorsed the LibDems (which to be honest would be a more logical choice for your two guys).
CON Canterbury 47.70554859 29.31003921
This is the last dying, desperate effort by the Corbynistas to change the narrative via a clumsy and transparent political stunt.
Corbyn tough on terror.................mmmm, ok.
Jim Gamble, Corbynista. Anonymous service firearm copper, must be a Corbynista. Various senior police figures making warnings long before the election was called, must be Corbynistas.
Corbyn was asked a question about whether he would support calls for May's resignation floating about from others, he didn't raise it. That's why this is so dangerous for Theresa May imo, Corbyn is only echoing something coming originally from voices that the average person will find deeply credible, especially in the context of heroic actions by police.
It was a stunt to deflect from Corbyn's terrorist appeasing, and nothing else. I'm sorry you can't see that.
Having just checked you are even wrong on the unturnout adjusted figures which have 12% of 2015 Labour voters going Tory and 11% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour
Much as I like spreadsheet Phil he won't have the same appeal as Boris.
What it a mistake to not focus on the economy more in their manifesto?
You can calculate the vote to 8 decimal places? It must be accurate then.
twitter.com/IainDale/status/871704608669917185
Canterbury constituency electorate is about 80,000. Student numbers are about 35,000. With the caveat not all are eligible to vote in General Elections. But still a huge chunk.
I strongly suspect there are lots like me, Tory, ukipper, that believe in individual responsibility. Low tax, small state but don't have anybody to vote for.
All this Labour / Lib Dem bickering over who will take the seat and Tories come through the middle?
NEW THREAD
Playing devil's advocate for YouGov, I am sure they would say that their model is not intended to be an individual seat-by-seat forecaster. We are looking at it that way, because of betting. YouGov has tried to use the reach of its panel (fifty times the size of a normal poll) plus its bank of local demographic data to try and get beyond the nornal headline VI of a poll to see how this might pan out at local level. If they have done the modelling right it is entirely reasonable to expect that YG will be picking up regional swings, and swings affecting particular demographics, better than any other poll.
I would therefore expect the YG Labour/Tory VI and projected seats to be more accurate than those derived from any poll. The one big weakness YG has is its assumption of self-certified intention to vote. It would be very interesting to know what the YG model would throw up if they fed in the ICM/ComRes assumption of likelihood to vote by denographic, based on 2015?
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/mike-smithsons-libdem-tip-letters/
I live in the North West in a Labour-held seat. It is number 80-something on the Tories target list.
In 2015 we got 2 or 3 leaflets each from Labour and the Conservatives. We also received some leaflets from other parties (one each from UKIP and the LibDems IIRC). No major figure from any party visited the constituency. It all felt fairly perfunctory.
This time the Conservative campaign went into overdrive early. We heard so much from them before Labour got going that I was beginning to wonder if we were going to hear from Labour at all. We have now received two leaflets from Labour, one of which was addressed to me personally. Only one of these leaflets came within the last two weeks. Neither of them mentions Jeremy Corbyn at all.
I have lost count of the number of communications we have received from the Conservatives. We have received 4 leaflets from them in the last two weeks, 3 of them addressed to me and/or my wife personally. All four of them include messages from Theresa May. She is front and centre in the personally addressed leaflets and takes up the majority of the other leaflet, although that one leads on linking the Labour candidate to Corbyn. The most recent personally addressed leaflet arrived today, the one before arrived on Friday. Theresa May has also visited the constituency and campaigned door to door.
Unlike last time we haven't heard anything from the minor parties. UKIP aren't standing this time. Note that ex-UKIP voters won't be enough to win this seat for the Conservatives. Apart from UKIP all the minor parties lost their deposits last time.
I can't comment on canvassing. Due to our location I would not expect to receive visits from canvassers and telephone canvassers would be blocked.
Before moving here I have always lived in safe Conservative seats so I have nothing to judge this against. But the fact we are being bombarded with so much personalised material by the Conservatives this close to polling day suggests to me that their private polling is telling them this seat is in play. If that is the case they must think we are still in landslide territory. However, if the published polls are correct, even looking at the best polls for the Conservatives, this seat isn't anywhere near being in play.
What do I think is happening here? I really don't know. But the views I hear being expressed about Corbyn suggest the Conservatives may be in with a chance.
Corbyn was asked a question about whether he would support calls for May's resignation floating about from others, he didn't raise it. That's why this is so dangerous for Theresa May imo, Corbyn is only echoing something coming originally from voices that the average person will find deeply credible, especially in the context of heroic actions by police.
It was a stunt to deflect from Corbyn's terrorist appeasing, and nothing else. I'm sorry you can't see that.
--
If you read the text of what Corbyn said, it doesn't sound like a stunt. It certainly wasn't planned. He was asked a question about whether he agrees with others who have called for her resignation, rather than something he raised, and he used it to hang a criticism of police cuts on rather than particularly talk about the PM. Unless the firearm units have affiliated to Momentum I don't think most reasonable people will see their criticism of police cuts as a stunt to boost Corbyn.
http://www.itv.com/news/central/2017-06-05/thieves-steal-secret-documents-from-car-of-west-midlands-counter-terrorism-chief/
Never in the history of British General Election polling has there been such a divergence between two major and respected polling firms with just three days to go before the big day.
It's surely too late now for serious herding, we're looking at blood-letting here on a very serious scale with major reputations being laid bare.
The effect of the students is easy to overestimate. They didn't turn the city red in term time in 2015. UKC works on a semester system, which means that many will have finished their exams and gone home by the end of May. I don't know but I think Christchurch is the same (plus Christchurch does a lot of vocational courses and a proportion of their students will be out on work placements at any given time). Of those that are left many will not even live in the city or even in the constituency, because student accommodation is in short supply and very expensive.
Julian Brazier got over 42% of the vote last time and his Labour rival got just over 24%. UKIP got 13% and aren't standing this time. So do your own research, but if you bet on Labour to win Canterbury, you are going to lose your money.
No government that is soft on the Saudi princes can seriously be called hard on terror. Corbyn and Farron are right to press on this. This could well be the issue that decides this election.
Meanwhile my understanding is that the Capital Group, whose most famous senior employee is Philip May, has a very significant presence in Riyadh.
"Lock her up"?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Nichols_Thom
What else can it have been but Saudi pressure that stopped the report from coming out? Did they threaten not to sign such a big weapons deal?