They almost have to be in a parallel universe to be able to suggest with a straight face that the Tories might be as low as 268 seats. No-one is forcing them to publish something that makes them look so daft.
I wonder why the shit bucket wasn't tipped after Manchester? Perhaps YouGov is more reflective of what the Tory polls are telling them, or is it just making sure that the police numbers issue is deflected?
This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21. It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.
I'll take 40-1 on Tories 344+ if Yougov truly believe that is 95% confidence interval.
95% is 19/1 surely? I'd still take it though.
No, 2.5% over <- 95% -> 2.5% under.
Ah yes, the bet would be on half the error. I assume Yougov staff are eager sellers of Tory seats on the spreads, if they place any trust at all in their numbers?
People aren't necessarily being naughty over postal votes, but they might be able to make a guess about turnout if postal votes in Labour areas are coming in more slowly than in 2015.
People aren't necessarily being naughty over postal votes, but they might be able to make a guess about turnout if postal votes in Labour areas are coming in more slowly than in 2015.
That's my feeling on this - its all guess work , with a hint of 'educated'.
The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow. The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
Theresa May's leadership ratings have fallen like a stone showing that throwing money at a campaign doesn't work if you are working with unappealing material. At least Cameron was personable and could think on his feet.
The Saudi Government is as much against the Wahhabi 'Isis' islamists as we are. You can't hold governments responsible for all the citizens within the country.
Trump just returned from futher agreements with the Saudis to fight Isis terrorism. Trump ahead of the game?
This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21. It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.
And yet I would think Tories > 344 is pretty likely... well over 50% IMO.
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.
Very naughty if true
Clearly they shouldn't. But remember in 2015, the first indication that things were going badly wrong for Miliband was not the exit poll, but that article (Labour Uncut?) that said the postal votes were not going well. So it may well be on the money.
That said, if the youth vote really is going to turn out massively, it will be on the day, not through postals.
From my assessments of postal votes so far, I agree with you entirely. If the youth come out, small majority, if they turnout as they normally do, it will be a very different result.
This is really really bizarre reasoning from Woodcock - if Corbyn wins then there is no way on God's green earth Woodcock (Who will probably still be an MP if Corby does win) will be able to demand that of him.
He's trying to see if a kite can fly. Unfortunately, made of lead, not really a chance. On the other hand, his constituency party will not be happy bunnies and may decide, sometime, before the next election that a new candidate might be required....
I reckon every other doorstep in Barrow is "I'd love to vote for YOU John, BUT". Probably one of the worst places in the whole country for Corbynism.
Are there any other really poor seats for Corbyn? I can think of Postsmouth seats, Gosport, Bradley Stoke and Filton, Plymouth seats as they all have defence connections, and Barrow, other Cumbria for nuclear, and I guess trident seats around aldermarston so Reading Newbury and Basingstoke.
Lib Dems on 8%...I know that is what they got in 2015 and Tiny Tim has had a crap campaign, but I don't know I just feel like really, there has to be soft lefties remain types who like SO are disgusted by Corbyn in the way Miliband certainly didn't.
On the other hand, around 32% of the 2015 LD vote went for Leave. I know some of that (including a couple of commenters on here) are staying with the LDs, but some of them must have switched to Con (if they want hard Brexit) or Lab (soft).
The hope of beating expectations for the LDs is that their vote is similar to last time but that propensity to vote tactically increases, now that the coalition years are receding.
Part of Corbyn's rise is driven by positive support (particularly amongst younger female voters, looking at the breakdowns), but also by disillusion with May and the Tory campaign. It's credible that in Tory seats where Labour isn't the challenger, a chunk of the latter will vote for the LDs (or Green, PC etc) to beat the Tories. The LDs being squeezed further in Tory/Labour battlegrounds would keep their overall vote unchanged (although since a typical poll will only have one or two people in each seat, given the few seats they are fighting seriously it is equally possible that the polls don't reflect their actual performance there at all)
Con seats where the LD could make a serious challenge?
There are about three of them. On the other hands they could boost their % a couple of points across the south-east which will do them no good.
LibDems are favourites in the top 12 of this list and shorter than 2/1 against in the next 10.
Orkney and Shetland Westmorland and Lonsdale Ceredigion EdinBorough West Sheffield, Hallam Twickenham Leeds North West East Dunbartonshire North East Fife Cambridge Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Kingston and Surbiton Richmond Park North Norfolk Carshalton and Wallington Lewes Eastbourne Bath Ross, Skye and Lochaber St Albans St Ives Southport
Orkney and Shetland Ceredigion Westmorland and Lonsdale Edinborough West Twickenham North East Fife East Dunbartonshire Sheffield, Hallam Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.
The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow. The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
Errr if that was the case then logically we ought to sell them more arms thus depriving them of cash that they might otherwise send to IS.
This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21. It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.
This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21. It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.
The ranges scream: we haven't got a scooby.
Given the stuff we've seen floating about on twitter, canvass returns etc etc the BOTTOM Labour figure won't be reached.
The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow. The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
Theresa May's leadership ratings have fallen like a stone showing that throwing money at a campaign doesn't work if you are working with unappealing material. At least Cameron was personable and could think on his feet.
The Saudi Government is as much against the Wahhabi 'Isis' islamists as we are. You can't hold governments responsible for all the citizens within the country.
Trump just returned from futher agreements with the Saudis to fight Isis terrorism. Trump ahead of the game?
It seems Bigjohnowls has morphed into a left wing Plato over the past few weeks.
That's not fair, Plato made a lot of good points at times, and she was basically right about Trump having a lot more appeal than was generally accepted.
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?
LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?
It seems Bigjohnowls has morphed into a left wing Plato over the past few weeks.
That's not fair, Plato made a lot of good points at times, and she was basically right about Trump having a lot more appeal than was generally accepted.
How long is she banned for? Has she served her sentence yet?
My feeling is that this will not actually benefit the Tory party. May's personal ratings might rise a bit due to leadership in a crisis, but the undertone to commentary seems to be 'cuts bad' and they don't seem to have a line to trot out on that. Maybe because they can't. It happened and technical arguments aside for what difference it makes, it looks bad and feels bad and on a cursory level without regard to the economy, smells bad. My read on how the public will reach overall is this......... For a government to have one terrorist atrocity in a GE campaign might be considered unfortunate, to have two...........
proposals. Is there such thing as the Conservative Research Department still?
I don't disagree with any of that. The problem is time. Coming up with a convincing argument and strategy in 3 days is impossible. However, perhaps the fact that we are in the position of 3 days to save the UK (being hyperbolic deliberately) speaks volumes about the disengagement of the political class from the reality on the ground.
The answer is fairly simple. The attackers were dead within 8 minutes despite there being 3 of them in a chaotic urban area. That indicates the force levels of the police were exactly right.
Those complaining need to indicate in what way the police were stretched on Saturday night.
This is a bit of a straw man. I don't think the govt's policy is to allow terrorist attacks to happen but to make sure that the police get there soon enough each time to keep the number of casualties within acceptable limits.
The police have been complaining that cuts are reducing their capability to play their part in the fight against terrorism. May accused them of crying wolf - do you agree? But it's not just the police, of course. There are question marks about the inadequacy of funding in Prevent, in intelligence and in dealing with social media.
I'd like to see the specific examples of how the police think the cuts have lead to a reduction in their ability to fight terrorism - since there was no issue with lack of firearm officers on Saturday, what are their other complaints. Then we can judge whether the cuts had an effect or not.
Prevent - Labour wanted to end it.
Intelligence - do you want 24/7 surveillance of all individuals who have expressed fundamentalist views and how much do you think that would cost?
Social Media - that requires legislation rather than funding and since Jeremy Corbyn opposed every piece of anti-terror legislation since 1983 - good luck with that argument.
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?
LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?
Orkney and Shetland Ceredigion Westmorland and Lonsdale Edinborough West Twickenham North East Fife East Dunbartonshire Sheffield, Hallam Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.
Very naughty if true
That IS interesting though...
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.
That is nonsense.
To answer the OP's point, the ballot paper has to be removed from the inner envelope to verify that the number on the back matches with the number of the paper sent to that voter.
Which makes you ask what the point of the 2 envelope system is...
One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.
Very naughty if true
That IS interesting though...
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.
Interesting use of the word 'polls' (plural), when they seem to be ignoring the other 'latest' Scottish poll by Survation that has Scons & SLab within 2 pts of each other.
Most polls have SCons on 25 to 30% and SLAB on 20 to 25% though Comres has SLab lower and Survation higher
I think SCON will come 3rd as SLAB "surges" back to c.25% - Will be interesting to watch SCON & their MSM fanboys spinning 3rd as a win !
I wouldn't be surprised to see SCON, SLAB and the Nationalists all score in the 30s.
The LibDems may get <5% but still get more seats than SLAB !</p>
LibDems are odds on favourites in 5 Scottish seats (and in 6 English seats and 1 Welsh seat).
They are also shorter than 2/1 against in another 10 seats.
Weighted average number of seats, based on top 40 targets is 16 seats.
Five?
- O&S - Edinburgh West should both be odds on
- Fife NE - Dunbartonshire East should be narrowly odds against
Is CS&ER the other one? Of course, if you want a potential surprise, I'd go for Argyll & Bute, where the LDs did very well in the Holyrood elections.
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?
LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?
Cambridge, Burnley, Yardley, Bermondsey going off twitter this morning.
Orkney and Shetland Ceredigion Westmorland and Lonsdale Edinborough West Twickenham North East Fife East Dunbartonshire Sheffield, Hallam Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.
Is your judgement clouded by being a Lib Dem supporter?
If I understand the way in which the model is constructed then comparing the model forecast with the results should enable you to say some interesting things about the election. That is useful. As a predictive tool, worse than useless because of the false confidence in the very wide uncertainty range.
The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow. The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
Theresa May's leadership ratings have fallen like a stone showing that throwing money at a campaign doesn't work if you are working with unappealing material. At least Cameron was personable and could think on his feet.
The Saudi Government is as much against the Wahhabi 'Isis' islamists as we are. You can't hold governments responsible for all the citizens within the country.
Trump just returned from futher agreements with the Saudis to fight Isis terrorism. Trump ahead of the game?
We need to see what the report says.
Why is it being witheld??
Quite possibly, it contains very sensitive intelligence.
It does not play well for a Prime Minister to refuse to publish a report which is so relevant to the threat from terror. Why is she afraid of offending the Saudis?
Theresa May is now appearing more weak as the days go on, she could be gone soon whatever happens in the election.
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.
Very naughty if true
That IS interesting though...
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.
That is nonsense.
To answer the OP's point, the ballot paper has to be removed from the inner envelope to verify that the number on the back matches with the number of the paper sent to that voter.
Ok. We are all making it up. My predictions can be ignored. Just like they could be in 2015 when I was considered to be ramping.
Orkney and Shetland Ceredigion Westmorland and Lonsdale Edinborough West Twickenham North East Fife East Dunbartonshire Sheffield, Hallam Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.
Is your judgement clouded by being a Lib Dem supporter?
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.
Very naughty if true
I know they're not supposed to know how people have voted - but can they know who has voted?
You do know, agents/candidates are invited to view them, but the crime is to report on what they show.
Party agents should not be able to see which way people have voted. But the council workers who check the signatures will surely get to see which way the vote has gone?
Council workers are people with political allegiances too.
They verify face down, and the counting agents are watching them do it. Therefore both staff and agents are seeing (and not seeing) the same thing. Once verified they are locked back into ballot boxes and sealed. The only way someone at the council would have any more information is if they came back afterwards, took a peek, and then re-sealed the box. The penalties if caught doing so would be so severe as to be unthinkable, and they are supposed to be locked away securely in any case.
The issue is that some people seem able to work out what the votes cast are by staring through the semi-transparent voting papers. I've tried and I can't, but my eyesight is not fantastic. Lots of other people claim to be able to and they seem to have been mostly right in the past.
It is indeed then illegal to publicise what you think you've seen. The normal response is a slap on the wrist, I think, unless you make a habit of it.
I wonder why the shit bucket wasn't tipped after Manchester? Perhaps YouGov is more reflective of what the Tory polls are telling them, or is it just making sure that the police numbers issue is deflected?
Because Labour didn't try to weaponise terror in the way they have tried to now?
One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.
The IRA did deliver a phone warning before the Manchester Arndale bombing in 1996.
Had they have not done, then the fatalities would have been in the hundreds.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
I'm shocked, he says that on record and yet not a peep on the hounding and attempted legal action taken against British soldiers who were in Iraq and Afghanistan. I wonder why...
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.
Very naughty if true
That IS interesting though...
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.
I thought the exit pole ignored postal votes.
He was going back to Warsaw and didn't really care.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
It does not play well for a Prime Minister to refuse to publish a report which is so relevant to the threat from terror. Why is she afraid of offending the Saudis?
Theresa May is now appearing more weak as the days go on, she could be gone soon whatever happens in the election.
What Saudi government funding do you think the Manchester bomber or London attackers had? I doubt it costs much to buy some knifes and hire a B&Q van.
From the reports, the London bomber radicalised himself over YouTube, which I guess means we should go after a bunch of US tech VCs.
The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow. The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties..
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
There will be no need for a response. Jeremy will solve terrorism through talking, obviously.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
My feeling is that this will not actually benefit the Tory party. May's personal ratings might rise a bit due to leadership in a crisis, but the undertone to commentary seems to be 'cuts bad' and they don't seem to have a line to trot out on that. Maybe because they can't. It happened and technical arguments aside for what difference it makes, it looks bad and feels bad and on a cursory level without regard to the economy, smells bad. My read on how the public will reach overall is this......... For a government to have one terrorist atrocity in a GE campaign might be considered unfortunate, to have two...........
proposals. Is there such thing as the Conservative Research Department still?
I don't disagree with any of that. The problem is time. Coming up with a convincing argument and strategy in 3 days is impossible. However, perhaps the fact that we are in the position of 3 days to save the UK (being hyperbolic deliberately) speaks volumes about the disengagement of the political class from the reality on the ground.
The answer is fairly simple. The attackers were dead within 8 minutes despite there being 3 of them in a chaotic urban area. That indicates the force levels of the police were exactly right.
Those complaining need to indicate in what way the police were stretched on Saturday night.
This is a bit of a straw man. I don't think the govt's policy is to allow terrorist attacks to happen but to make sure that the police get there soon enough each time to keep the number of casualties within acceptable limits.
The police have been complaining that cuts are reducing their capability to play their part in the fight against terrorism. May accused them of crying wolf - do you agree? But it's not just the police, of course. There are question marks about the inadequacy of funding in Prevent, in intelligence and in dealing with social media.
I'd like to see the specific examples of how the police think the cuts have lead to a reduction in their ability to fight terrorism - since there was no issue with lack of firearm officers on Saturday, what are their other complaints. Then we can judge whether the cuts had an effect or not.
Is having "the right number of firearms officers" the only contribution the police can make to the fight against terrorism?
One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
They were very much able to trigger bombs with radio devices.
But mobiles make it much more easier and devastating.
Easier maybe, but there a big downsides to using a mobile for a trigger, but how is it more devastating?
It's not cellphones that would have made the big difference it's portable, extremely low cost microcontrollers with connectivity, sensors and power switching capability, like arduinos.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
The development of personal Tardises will be funded by using them to go back in time and make a fortune on the spread markets.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
You're doing it as well. Clearing up the mess is not the only role the police have in fighting terrorism.
I think I might have to log off PB until 10pm on Thursday as it appears it is now astroturfing central.
Why bother astroturfing here anyway? It's not going to change anybody's mind. Seems like a waste of effort to me.
It's very odd. There are some obviously spurious claims on all sides to be involved in this election that don't add up. I'm here purely because I'm interested in politics, especially Scottish politics and I have zero knowledge other than some local knowledge of general trends in Norfolk. Having said that, if I give a cricket tip, take it
I would bet that people distinguish between acts of terrorism and care more about bombings in London and Manchester than Syria or Craigavon, until some other evidence is provided.
One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.
Another factor for the IRA was to keep its supporters both in Ireland and America onside, so there evolved a system of attacks against "justified" targets preceded by coded warnings to evacuate -- moving away from murdering civilians in pubs (or horses in parks or 8-year-olds at concerts) that caused a drop in donations.
Edit: of course it is often said that what ended the IRA's campaign was 9/11 after which terrorism was no longer seen by Americans as justifiable.
My feeling is that this will not actually benefit the Tory party. May's personal ratings might rise a bit due to leadership in a crisis, but the undertone to commentary seems to be 'cuts bad' and they don't seem to have a line to trot out on that. Maybe because they can't. It happened and technical arguments aside for what difference it makes, it looks bad and feels bad and on a cursory level without regard to the economy, smells bad. My read on how the public will reach overall is this......... For a government to have one terrorist atrocity in a GE campaign might be considered unfortunate, to have two...........
proposals. Is there such thing as the Conservative Research Department still?
I don't disagree with any of that. The problem is time. Coming up with a convincing argument and strategy in 3 days is impossible. However, perhaps the fact that we are in the position of 3 days to save the UK (being hyperbolic deliberately) speaks volumes about the disengagement of the political class from the reality on the ground.
The answer is fairly simple. The attackers were dead within 8 minutes despite there being 3 of them in a chaotic urban area. That indicates the force levels of the police were exactly right.
Those complaining need to indicate in what way the police were stretched on Saturday night.
This is a bit of a straw man. I don't think the govt's policy is to allow terrorist attacks to happen but to make sure that the police get there soon enough each time to keep the number of casualties within acceptable limits.
The police have been complaining that cuts are reducing their capability to play their part in the fight against terrorism. May accused them of crying wolf - do you agree? But it's not just the police, of course. There are question marks about the inadequacy of funding in Prevent, in intelligence and in dealing with social media.
I'd like to see the specific examples of how the police think the cuts have lead to a reduction in their ability to fight terrorism - since there was no issue with lack of firearm officers on Saturday, what are their other complaints. Then we can judge whether the cuts had an effect or not.
Is having "the right number of firearms officers" the only contribution the police can make to the fight against terrorism?
Yes, broadly.
The Prevent program, the correct legislation and the promotion of an integrated Muslim community are all non-police.
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?
LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?
Cambridge, Burnley, Yardley, Bermondsey going off twitter this morning.
Can't see LDs winning any of those. Nowhere near in Yardley.
One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.
Another factor for the IRA was to keep its supporters both in Ireland and America onside, so there evolved a system of attacks against "justified" targets preceded by coded warnings to evacuate -- moving away from murdering civilians in pubs (or horses in parks or 8-year-olds at concerts) that caused a drop in donations.
Edit: of course it is often said that what ended the IRA's campaign was 9/11 after which terrorism was no longer seen by Americans as justifiable.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
Tardi?
Nope, Tardises.
Grammar is not my strong point, TSE. I can see this site is edited by the alumnuses of very good schools.
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.
Tardi?
Tardi would not be good branding for a device intended to transport you to before an event.
It does not play well for a Prime Minister to refuse to publish a report which is so relevant to the threat from terror. Why is she afraid of offending the Saudis?
Theresa May is now appearing more weak as the days go on, she could be gone soon whatever happens in the election.
Oh look, Roserees is back. Is there can election on?
of course eight minutes from emergency call to 3 dead terrorists must be down to lack of police resources........
Eight minutes is due to the Met having armed response vehicles cruising round central London 24x7. I'm not sure how it refutes the police cuts argument and even if it does, since Plato was barred there are not many floating voters left on pb.
Comments
It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.
It would be wiser to wait for a proper review to determine what, if anything, should have been done differently.
I assume Yougov staff are eager sellers of Tory seats on the spreads, if they place any trust at all in their numbers?
Trump just returned from futher agreements with the Saudis to fight Isis terrorism. Trump ahead of the game?
She is refusing
Why? What is she hiding?
We cant go on like this
Ho ho ho.
Orkney and Shetland
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Ceredigion
EdinBorough West
Sheffield, Hallam
Twickenham
Leeds North West
East Dunbartonshire
North East Fife
Cambridge
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Kingston and Surbiton
Richmond Park
North Norfolk
Carshalton and Wallington
Lewes
Eastbourne
Bath
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
St Albans
St Ives
Southport
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
She isn't. She won't
We cant go on like this
Ceredigion
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Edinborough West
Twickenham
North East Fife
East Dunbartonshire
Sheffield, Hallam
Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.
Con Landslide
Too much adrenalin?
Reminds me of Kinnock in Sheffield - Well alright! Well alright!
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/corbyn-defended-fighters-returning-from-syria/
Why is it being witheld??
I'd like to see the specific examples of how the police think the cuts have lead to a reduction in their ability to fight terrorism - since there was no issue with lack of firearm officers on Saturday, what are their other complaints. Then we can judge whether the cuts had an effect or not.
Prevent - Labour wanted to end it.
Intelligence - do you want 24/7 surveillance of all individuals who have expressed fundamentalist views and how much do you think that would cost?
Social Media - that requires legislation rather than funding and since Jeremy Corbyn opposed every piece of anti-terror legislation since 1983 - good luck with that argument.
Enough is definitely enough
- O&S
- Edinburgh West
should both be odds on
- Fife NE
- Dunbartonshire East
should be narrowly odds against
Is CS&ER the other one?
Of course, if you want a potential surprise, I'd go for Argyll & Bute, where the LDs did very well in the Holyrood elections.
Is your judgement clouded by being a Lib Dem supporter?
Theresa May is now appearing more weak as the days go on, she could be gone soon whatever happens in the election.
It is indeed then illegal to publicise what you think you've seen. The normal response is a slap on the wrist, I think, unless you make a habit of it.
Had they have not done, then the fatalities would have been in the hundreds.
From the reports, the London bomber radicalised himself over YouTube, which I guess means we should go after a bunch of US tech VCs.
Now the top topic is security, they seem to have nothing to say about how to stop terrorism.
Things can only get worse not better.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4571186/May-cut-police-numbers-paying-price.html
Edit: of course it is often said that what ended the IRA's campaign was 9/11 after which terrorism was no longer seen by Americans as justifiable.
The JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index is bone dry at Con Maj of 100
The Prevent program, the correct legislation and the promotion of an integrated Muslim community are all non-police.
And even if they had, could they have stopped that attack?
Did all those extra officers,in the various forces, stop the attacks in 2005?
What point are you trying to make?
It appears that the meme from Labour HQ today is suggesting that the officers that took out the scum in 8 minutes weren't good enough. Nice.
Fabulous
@tamcohen: May channelling Gordon Brown "no time for a novice" saying this is no time for "learning on the job"