politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics
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That place should be safer than a VERY SAFE THING, in a safePulpstar said:
Good God. I'm feeling a bit better about that 375+ betslip I have now.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's talking about Penistone and Stocksbridge judging by his tweets.Pulpstar said:0 -
I wonder why the shit bucket wasn't tipped after Manchester? Perhaps YouGov is more reflective of what the Tory polls are telling them, or is it just making sure that the police numbers issue is deflected?Scott_P said:twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/871668073513840640
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This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21.Scott_P said:
It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.0 -
Easier maybe, but there a big downsides to using a mobile for a trigger, but how is it more devastating?TheScreamingEagles said:
But mobiles make it much more easier and devastating.TOPPING said:
They were very much able to trigger bombs with radio devices.TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.Sean_F said:One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example0 -
Seems very unfair from Hilton tbh.bigjohnowls said:Tory aide Steve Hilton says May is responsible
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-blamed-for-london-bridge-terror-attack-by-top-cameron-aide-steve-hilton-2017-6
It would be wiser to wait for a proper review to determine what, if anything, should have been done differently.0 -
Ah yes, the bet would be on half the error.Pulpstar said:
I assume Yougov staff are eager sellers of Tory seats on the spreads, if they place any trust at all in their numbers?0 -
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This will be the election that finishes Yougov off I think.logical_song said:
It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.0 -
I believe despite their previous political polling failures their business is stronger than ever.Pulpstar said:
This will be the election that finishes Yougov off I think.logical_song said:
It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.0 -
The Saudi Government is as much against the Wahhabi 'Isis' islamists as we are. You can't hold governments responsible for all the citizens within the country.roserees64 said:The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow.
The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
Theresa May's leadership ratings have fallen like a stone showing that throwing money at a campaign doesn't work if you are working with unappealing material. At least Cameron was personable and could think on his feet.
Trump just returned from futher agreements with the Saudis to fight Isis terrorism. Trump ahead of the game?0 -
And yet I would think Tories > 344 is pretty likely... well over 50% IMO.logical_song said:
This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21.Scott_P said:
It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.0 -
From my assessments of postal votes so far, I agree with you entirely. If the youth come out, small majority, if they turnout as they normally do, it will be a very different result.MarqueeMark said:
Clearly they shouldn't. But remember in 2015, the first indication that things were going badly wrong for Miliband was not the exit poll, but that article (Labour Uncut?) that said the postal votes were not going well. So it may well be on the money.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.Pulpstar said:Oh - Now this IS interesting.
https://twitter.com/MerryMichaelW/status/871623672456499200
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Very naughty if true
That said, if the youth vote really is going to turn out massively, it will be on the day, not through postals.
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Fylde - Defence plus Nuclear. Safe Tory though.Nemtynakht said:
Are there any other really poor seats for Corbyn? I can think of Postsmouth seats, Gosport, Bradley Stoke and Filton, Plymouth seats as they all have defence connections, and Barrow, other Cumbria for nuclear, and I guess trident seats around aldermarston so Reading Newbury and Basingstoke.Pulpstar said:
I reckon every other doorstep in Barrow is "I'd love to vote for YOU John, BUT". Probably one of the worst places in the whole country for Corbynism.OchEye said:
He's trying to see if a kite can fly. Unfortunately, made of lead, not really a chance. On the other hand, his constituency party will not be happy bunnies and may decide, sometime, before the next election that a new candidate might be required....Pulpstar said:
This is really really bizarre reasoning from Woodcock - if Corbyn wins then there is no way on God's green earth Woodcock (Who will probably still be an MP if Corby does win) will be able to demand that of him.Slackbladder said:
Depends if he's a MP come Friday morning...dr_spyn said:John Woodcock about to have incoming rants.
https://twitter.com/BBC_Cumbria/status/8716413856398376960 -
Opposition parties call on May to publish suppressed report into Saudi funding of UK extremists.
She is refusing
Why? What is she hiding?
We cant go on like this0 -
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LibDems are favourites in the top 12 of this list and shorter than 2/1 against in the next 10.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Con seats where the LD could make a serious challenge?IanB2 said:
The hope of beating expectations for the LDs is that their vote is similar to last time but that propensity to vote tactically increases, now that the coalition years are receding.Essexit said:
On the other hand, around 32% of the 2015 LD vote went for Leave. I know some of that (including a couple of commenters on here) are staying with the LDs, but some of them must have switched to Con (if they want hard Brexit) or Lab (soft).FrancisUrquhart said:Lib Dems on 8%...I know that is what they got in 2015 and Tiny Tim has had a crap campaign, but I don't know I just feel like really, there has to be soft lefties remain types who like SO are disgusted by Corbyn in the way Miliband certainly didn't.
Part of Corbyn's rise is driven by positive support (particularly amongst younger female voters, looking at the breakdowns), but also by disillusion with May and the Tory campaign. It's credible that in Tory seats where Labour isn't the challenger, a chunk of the latter will vote for the LDs (or Green, PC etc) to beat the Tories. The LDs being squeezed further in Tory/Labour battlegrounds would keep their overall vote unchanged (although since a typical poll will only have one or two people in each seat, given the few seats they are fighting seriously it is equally possible that the polls don't reflect their actual performance there at all)
There are about three of them. On the other hands they could boost their % a couple of points across the south-east which will do them no good.
Orkney and Shetland
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Ceredigion
EdinBorough West
Sheffield, Hallam
Twickenham
Leeds North West
East Dunbartonshire
North East Fife
Cambridge
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Kingston and Surbiton
Richmond Park
North Norfolk
Carshalton and Wallington
Lewes
Eastbourne
Bath
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
St Albans
St Ives
Southport
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What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?Sean_F said:
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.Sean_F said:One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.0 -
Too many tweets....Pulpstar said:twitter.com/andlawton/status/871668970788720640
Ho ho ho.0 -
"Theresa May must take responsibility for massive police and security services cuts"
She isn't. She won't
We cant go on like this0 -
Orkney and Shetland
Ceredigion
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Edinborough West
Twickenham
North East Fife
East Dunbartonshire
Sheffield, Hallam
Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.0 -
Errr if that was the case then logically we ought to sell them more arms thus depriving them of cash that they might otherwise send to IS.roserees64 said:The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow.
The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
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The ranges scream: we haven't got a scooby.logical_song said:
This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21.Scott_P said:
It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.0 -
It seems Bigjohnowls has morphed into a left wing Plato over the past few weeks.0
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ICM and JackW - The Gold Standard - Strong And Stable.
Con Landslide
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So another idiot proves David Cameron's maxim about Twitter.Pulpstar said:0 -
Corbyn getting very shouty.
Too much adrenalin?
Reminds me of Kinnock in Sheffield - Well alright! Well alright!0 -
Guido strikes again. Apparently Corbyn said that we mustn't make 'value judgements' about people returning from Syria.
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/corbyn-defended-fighters-returning-from-syria/-1 -
Given the stuff we've seen floating about on twitter, canvass returns etc etc the BOTTOM Labour figure won't be reached.BigIan said:
The ranges scream: we haven't got a scooby.logical_song said:
This gives the Tories a 76 seat range, 65 for Labour with SNP getting between 17 and 52 and LibDems between 7 and 21.Scott_P said:
It looks as though the uncertainty is so large it would be surprising if they got it wrong.0 -
We need to see what the report says.David_Evershed said:
The Saudi Government is as much against the Wahhabi 'Isis' islamists as we are. You can't hold governments responsible for all the citizens within the country.roserees64 said:The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow.
The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
Theresa May's leadership ratings have fallen like a stone showing that throwing money at a campaign doesn't work if you are working with unappealing material. At least Cameron was personable and could think on his feet.
Trump just returned from futher agreements with the Saudis to fight Isis terrorism. Trump ahead of the game?
Why is it being witheld??0 -
That's not fair, Plato made a lot of good points at times, and she was basically right about Trump having a lot more appeal than was generally accepted.FrancisUrquhart said:It seems Bigjohnowls has morphed into a left wing Plato over the past few weeks.
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LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?IanB2 said:
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.Scott_P said:
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?0 -
What majority is ARSE predicting for Conservatives?JackW said:ICM and JackW - The Gold Standard - Strong And Stable.
Con Landslide0 -
How long is she banned for? Has she served her sentence yet?glw said:
That's not fair, Plato made a lot of good points at times, and she was basically right about Trump having a lot more appeal than was generally accepted.FrancisUrquhart said:It seems Bigjohnowls has morphed into a left wing Plato over the past few weeks.
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Dadge said:
This is a bit of a straw man. I don't think the govt's policy is to allow terrorist attacks to happen but to make sure that the police get there soon enough each time to keep the number of casualties within acceptable limits.JonathanD said:
The answer is fairly simple. The attackers were dead within 8 minutes despite there being 3 of them in a chaotic urban area. That indicates the force levels of the police were exactly right.dyedwoolie said:
I don't disagree with any of that. The problem is time. Coming up with a convincing argument and strategy in 3 days is impossible. However, perhaps the fact that we are in the position of 3 days to save the UK (being hyperbolic deliberately) speaks volumes about the disengagement of the political class from the reality on the ground.Nemtynakht said:
proposals. Is there such thing as the Conservative Research Department still?dyedwoolie said:
My feeling is that this will not actually benefit the Tory party. May's personal ratings might rise a bit due to leadership in a crisis, but the undertone to commentary seems to be 'cuts bad' and they don't seem to have a line to trot out on that. Maybe because they can't. It happened and technical arguments aside for what difference it makes, it looks bad and feels bad and on a cursory level without regard to the economy, smells bad.
My read on how the public will reach overall is this.........
For a government to have one terrorist atrocity in a GE campaign might be considered unfortunate, to have two...........
Those complaining need to indicate in what way the police were stretched on Saturday night.
The police have been complaining that cuts are reducing their capability to play their part in the fight against terrorism. May accused them of crying wolf - do you agree? But it's not just the police, of course. There are question marks about the inadequacy of funding in Prevent, in intelligence and in dealing with social media.
I'd like to see the specific examples of how the police think the cuts have lead to a reduction in their ability to fight terrorism - since there was no issue with lack of firearm officers on Saturday, what are their other complaints. Then we can judge whether the cuts had an effect or not.
Prevent - Labour wanted to end it.
Intelligence - do you want 24/7 surveillance of all individuals who have expressed fundamentalist views and how much do you think that would cost?
Social Media - that requires legislation rather than funding and since Jeremy Corbyn opposed every piece of anti-terror legislation since 1983 - good luck with that argument.0 -
Mike's campaign?Barnesian said:
LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?IanB2 said:
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.Scott_P said:
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?0 -
Not Cambridge?Pulpstar said:Orkney and Shetland
Ceredigion
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Edinborough West
Twickenham
North East Fife
East Dunbartonshire
Sheffield, Hallam
Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.0 -
Which makes you ask what the point of the 2 envelope system is...IanB2 said:
That is nonsense.notme said:
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.peter_from_putney said:
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.Slackbladder said:
That IS interesting though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.Pulpstar said:Oh - Now this IS interesting.
https://twitter.com/MerryMichaelW/status/871623672456499200
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Very naughty if true
To answer the OP's point, the ballot paper has to be removed from the inner envelope to verify that the number on the back matches with the number of the paper sent to that voter.0 -
May is dressed more soberly than usual.0
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In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.Theuniondivvie said:
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?Sean_F said:
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.Sean_F said:One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.0 -
I thought the exit pole ignored postal votes.notme said:
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.peter_from_putney said:
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.Slackbladder said:
That IS interesting though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.Pulpstar said:Oh - Now this IS interesting.
https://twitter.com/MerryMichaelW/status/871623672456499200
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Very naughty if true0 -
0
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Five?Barnesian said:
LibDems are odds on favourites in 5 Scottish seats (and in 6 English seats and 1 Welsh seat).calum said:
The LibDems may get <5% but still get more seats than SLAB !</p>MonikerDiCanio said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see SCON, SLAB and the Nationalists all score in the 30s.calum said:
I think SCON will come 3rd as SLAB "surges" back to c.25% - Will be interesting to watch SCON & their MSM fanboys spinning 3rd as a win !HYUFD said:
Most polls have SCons on 25 to 30% and SLAB on 20 to 25% though Comres has SLab lower and Survation higherTheuniondivvie said:
Interesting use of the word 'polls' (plural), when they seem to be ignoring the other 'latest' Scottish poll by Survation that has Scons & SLab within 2 pts of each other.calum said:
Have SLAB already crossed back over SCON? - my sense is they have and the Barchart Party suspects this as well:Scott_P said:
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/yougov-contradicts-survation-by.html
They are also shorter than 2/1 against in another 10 seats.
Weighted average number of seats, based on top 40 targets is 16 seats.
- O&S
- Edinburgh West
should both be odds on
- Fife NE
- Dunbartonshire East
should be narrowly odds against
Is CS&ER the other one?
Of course, if you want a potential surprise, I'd go for Argyll & Bute, where the LDs did very well in the Holyrood elections.0 -
Cambridge, Burnley, Yardley, Bermondsey going off twitter this morning.Barnesian said:
LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?IanB2 said:
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.Scott_P said:
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?0 -
Pulpstar said:
Orkney and Shetland
Ceredigion
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Edinborough West
Twickenham
North East Fife
East Dunbartonshire
Sheffield, Hallam
Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.
Is your judgement clouded by being a Lib Dem supporter?
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If I understand the way in which the model is constructed then comparing the model forecast with the results should enable you to say some interesting things about the election. That is useful. As a predictive tool, worse than useless because of the false confidence in the very wide uncertainty range.Slackbladder said:Has there ever been a more pointless model?
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Quite possibly, it contains very sensitive intelligence.bigjohnowls said:
We need to see what the report says.David_Evershed said:
The Saudi Government is as much against the Wahhabi 'Isis' islamists as we are. You can't hold governments responsible for all the citizens within the country.roserees64 said:The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow.
The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties.
Theresa May's leadership ratings have fallen like a stone showing that throwing money at a campaign doesn't work if you are working with unappealing material. At least Cameron was personable and could think on his feet.
Trump just returned from futher agreements with the Saudis to fight Isis terrorism. Trump ahead of the game?
Why is it being witheld??0 -
It does not play well for a Prime Minister to refuse to publish a report which is so relevant to the threat from terror. Why is she afraid of offending the Saudis?
Theresa May is now appearing more weak as the days go on, she could be gone soon whatever happens in the election.0 -
Ok. We are all making it up. My predictions can be ignored. Just like they could be in 2015 when I was considered to be ramping.IanB2 said:
That is nonsense.notme said:
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.peter_from_putney said:
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.Slackbladder said:
That IS interesting though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.Pulpstar said:Oh - Now this IS interesting.
https://twitter.com/MerryMichaelW/status/871623672456499200
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Very naughty if true
To answer the OP's point, the ballot paper has to be removed from the inner envelope to verify that the number on the back matches with the number of the paper sent to that voter.0 -
No.David_Evershed said:Pulpstar said:Orkney and Shetland
Ceredigion
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Edinborough West
Twickenham
North East Fife
East Dunbartonshire
Sheffield, Hallam
Leeds North West
Do I win a prize if that is the final Lib Dem list ?
Looks very plausible to me that those 9 are won and no others. I've arranged into my personal order of probability too.
Is your judgement clouded by being a Lib Dem supporter?0 -
The issue is that some people seem able to work out what the votes cast are by staring through the semi-transparent voting papers. I've tried and I can't, but my eyesight is not fantastic. Lots of other people claim to be able to and they seem to have been mostly right in the past.IanB2 said:
They verify face down, and the counting agents are watching them do it. Therefore both staff and agents are seeing (and not seeing) the same thing. Once verified they are locked back into ballot boxes and sealed. The only way someone at the council would have any more information is if they came back afterwards, took a peek, and then re-sealed the box. The penalties if caught doing so would be so severe as to be unthinkable, and they are supposed to be locked away securely in any case.David_Evershed said:
Party agents should not be able to see which way people have voted. But the council workers who check the signatures will surely get to see which way the vote has gone?TheScreamingEagles said:
You do know, agents/candidates are invited to view them, but the crime is to report on what they show.CarlottaVance said:
I know they're not supposed to know how people have voted - but can they know who has voted?TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.Pulpstar said:Oh - Now this IS interesting.
https://twitter.com/MerryMichaelW/status/871623672456499200
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Very naughty if true
Council workers are people with political allegiances too.
It is indeed then illegal to publicise what you think you've seen. The normal response is a slap on the wrist, I think, unless you make a habit of it.0 -
Because Labour didn't try to weaponise terror in the way they have tried to now?FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder why the shit bucket wasn't tipped after Manchester? Perhaps YouGov is more reflective of what the Tory polls are telling them, or is it just making sure that the police numbers issue is deflected?Scott_P said:twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/871668073513840640
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The IRA did deliver a phone warning before the Manchester Arndale bombing in 1996.Sean_F said:
In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.Theuniondivvie said:
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?Sean_F said:
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.Sean_F said:One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
Had they have not done, then the fatalities would have been in the hundreds.0 -
So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?0
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I'm shocked, he says that on record and yet not a peep on the hounding and attempted legal action taken against British soldiers who were in Iraq and Afghanistan. I wonder why...bardigiani said:Guido strikes again. Apparently Corbyn said that we mustn't make 'value judgements' about people returning from Syria.
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/corbyn-defended-fighters-returning-from-syria/0 -
He was going back to Warsaw and didn't really care.philiph said:
I thought the exit pole ignored postal votes.notme said:
The postal vote opening is a ritual in which observers can get very good at sampling. Believe it or don't believe it.peter_from_putney said:
Surely, the inner envelopes containing the ballot slips aren't opened until the polls have closed. The outer envelope contains a specimen signature together with the voter's DoB for verification purposes. I therefore very much doubt the veracity of this story.Slackbladder said:
That IS interesting though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.Pulpstar said:Oh - Now this IS interesting.
https://twitter.com/MerryMichaelW/status/871623672456499200
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Very naughty if true0 -
I think I might have to log off PB until 10pm on Thursday as it appears it is now astroturfing central.0
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Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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What Saudi government funding do you think the Manchester bomber or London attackers had? I doubt it costs much to buy some knifes and hire a B&Q van.roserees64 said:It does not play well for a Prime Minister to refuse to publish a report which is so relevant to the threat from terror. Why is she afraid of offending the Saudis?
Theresa May is now appearing more weak as the days go on, she could be gone soon whatever happens in the election.
From the reports, the London bomber radicalised himself over YouTube, which I guess means we should go after a bunch of US tech VCs.
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Lib Dems gambled on fighting the election on reversing Brexit.
Now the top topic is security, they seem to have nothing to say about how to stop terrorism.
Things can only get worse not better.0 -
Those damn Tories...roserees64 said:The elephant in the room is this government's support for Saudi Arabia, a country which indirectly sends money to Isis through oil revenue. Isis would be far less powerful if it lost its Saudi cash cow.
The UK should stop the selling of arms to a country which has such ties..
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Tardi?AlastairMeeks said:
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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A shame there isn't a Monster Raving Loony candidate called Votey McVoteface.....Scott_P said:0 -
Crime Traveller is a thing!AlastairMeeks said:
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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There will be no need for a response. Jeremy will solve terrorism through talking, obviously.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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Why bother astroturfing here anyway? It's not going to change anybody's mind. Seems like a waste of effort to me.FrancisUrquhart said:I think I might have to log off PB until 10pm on Thursday as it appears it is now astroturfing central.
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May not focusing on security but the overall picture in her speech. Brave.0
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So you've seen/read Minority Report then?AlastairMeeks said:
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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Is having "the right number of firearms officers" the only contribution the police can make to the fight against terrorism?JonathanD said:Dadge said:
This is a bit of a straw man. I don't think the govt's policy is to allow terrorist attacks to happen but to make sure that the police get there soon enough each time to keep the number of casualties within acceptable limits.JonathanD said:
The answer is fairly simple. The attackers were dead within 8 minutes despite there being 3 of them in a chaotic urban area. That indicates the force levels of the police were exactly right.dyedwoolie said:
I don't disagree with any of that. The problem is time. Coming up with a convincing argument and strategy in 3 days is impossible. However, perhaps the fact that we are in the position of 3 days to save the UK (being hyperbolic deliberately) speaks volumes about the disengagement of the political class from the reality on the ground.Nemtynakht said:
proposals. Is there such thing as the Conservative Research Department still?dyedwoolie said:
My feeling is that this will not actually benefit the Tory party. May's personal ratings might rise a bit due to leadership in a crisis, but the undertone to commentary seems to be 'cuts bad' and they don't seem to have a line to trot out on that. Maybe because they can't. It happened and technical arguments aside for what difference it makes, it looks bad and feels bad and on a cursory level without regard to the economy, smells bad.
My read on how the public will reach overall is this.........
For a government to have one terrorist atrocity in a GE campaign might be considered unfortunate, to have two...........
Those complaining need to indicate in what way the police were stretched on Saturday night.
The police have been complaining that cuts are reducing their capability to play their part in the fight against terrorism. May accused them of crying wolf - do you agree? But it's not just the police, of course. There are question marks about the inadequacy of funding in Prevent, in intelligence and in dealing with social media.
I'd like to see the specific examples of how the police think the cuts have lead to a reduction in their ability to fight terrorism - since there was no issue with lack of firearm officers on Saturday, what are their other complaints. Then we can judge whether the cuts had an effect or not.0 -
It's not cellphones that would have made the big difference it's portable, extremely low cost microcontrollers with connectivity, sensors and power switching capability, like arduinos.glw said:
Easier maybe, but there a big downsides to using a mobile for a trigger, but how is it more devastating?TheScreamingEagles said:
But mobiles make it much more easier and devastating.TOPPING said:
They were very much able to trigger bombs with radio devices.TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.Sean_F said:One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example0 -
The development of personal Tardises will be funded by using them to go back in time and make a fortune on the spread markets.AlastairMeeks said:
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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Nope, Tardises.camel said:
Tardi?AlastairMeeks said:
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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Maybe not axing 20,000 police officers would have been a good start.David_Evershed said:Lib Dems gambled on fighting the election on reversing Brexit.
Now the top topic is security, they seem to have nothing to say about how to stop terrorism.
Things can only get worse not better.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4571186/May-cut-police-numbers-paying-price.html0 -
http://cdn-static.denofgeek.com/sites/denofgeek/files/2016/09/crime-traveller_1.jpgRichard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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You're doing it as well. Clearing up the mess is not the only role the police have in fighting terrorism.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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Strong speech from the PM.0
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It's very odd. There are some obviously spurious claims on all sides to be involved in this election that don't add up. I'm here purely because I'm interested in politics, especially Scottish politics and I have zero knowledge other than some local knowledge of general trends in Norfolk. Having said that, if I give a cricket tip, take itCarolus_Rex said:
Why bother astroturfing here anyway? It's not going to change anybody's mind. Seems like a waste of effort to me.FrancisUrquhart said:I think I might have to log off PB until 10pm on Thursday as it appears it is now astroturfing central.
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I would bet that people distinguish between acts of terrorism and care more about bombings in London and Manchester than Syria or Craigavon, until some other evidence is provided.0
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Thanks to eagle eyed PBers.Sandpit said:.
Kerry McCarthy, 2010. Tweeted actual vote numbers from the first day of the PV count and got a police caution for her troubles.FrancisUrquhart said:
A certain labour mp, their social media "expert", got in a lot of trouble if I remember correctly..TheScreamingEagles said:
You do know, agents/candidates are invited to view them, but the crime is to report on what they show.CarlottaVance said:
I know they're not supposed to know how people have voted - but can they know who has voted?TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm, has someone been looking at postal votes.Pulpstar said:Oh - Now this IS interesting.
https://twitter.com/MerryMichaelW/status/871623672456499200
EC&A ought to be one of the seats Labour will outperform the most in the whole country, surely ?
Very naughty if true0 -
Another factor for the IRA was to keep its supporters both in Ireland and America onside, so there evolved a system of attacks against "justified" targets preceded by coded warnings to evacuate -- moving away from murdering civilians in pubs (or horses in parks or 8-year-olds at concerts) that caused a drop in donations.Sean_F said:
In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.Theuniondivvie said:
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?Sean_F said:
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.Sean_F said:One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
Edit: of course it is often said that what ended the IRA's campaign was 9/11 after which terrorism was no longer seen by Americans as justifiable.0 -
The ARSE is retired but ....David_Evershed said:
What majority is ARSE predicting for Conservatives?JackW said:ICM and JackW - The Gold Standard - Strong And Stable.
Con Landslide
The JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index is bone dry at Con Maj of 1000 -
Yes, broadly.Dadge said:
Is having "the right number of firearms officers" the only contribution the police can make to the fight against terrorism?JonathanD said:Dadge said:
This is a bit of a straw man. I don't think the govt's policy is to allow terrorist attacks to happen but to make sure that the police get there soon enough each time to keep the number of casualties within acceptable limits.JonathanD said:
The answer is fairly simple. The attackers were dead within 8 minutes despite there being 3 of them in a chaotic urban area. That indicates the force levels of the police were exactly right.dyedwoolie said:
I don't disagree with any of that. The problem is time. Coming up with a convincing argument and strategy in 3 days is impossible. However, perhaps the fact that we are in the position of 3 days to save the UK (being hyperbolic deliberately) speaks volumes about the disengagement of the political class from the reality on the ground.Nemtynakht said:
proposals. Is there such thing as the Conservative Research Department still?dyedwoolie said:
My feeling is that this will not actually benefit the Tory party. May's personal ratings might rise a bit due to leadership in a crisis, but the undertone to commentary seems to be 'cuts bad' and they don't seem to have a line to trot out on that. Maybe because they can't. It happened and technical arguments aside for what difference it makes, it looks bad and feels bad and on a cursory level without regard to the economy, smells bad.
My read on how the public will reach overall is this.........
For a government to have one terrorist atrocity in a GE campaign might be considered unfortunate, to have two...........
Those complaining need to indicate in what way the police were stretched on Saturday night.
The police have been complaining that cuts are reducing their capability to play their part in the fight against terrorism. May accused them of crying wolf - do you agree? But it's not just the police, of course. There are question marks about the inadequacy of funding in Prevent, in intelligence and in dealing with social media.
I'd like to see the specific examples of how the police think the cuts have lead to a reduction in their ability to fight terrorism - since there was no issue with lack of firearm officers on Saturday, what are their other complaints. Then we can judge whether the cuts had an effect or not.
The Prevent program, the correct legislation and the promotion of an integrated Muslim community are all non-police.0 -
of course eight minutes from emergency call to 3 dead terrorists must be down to lack of police resources........bigjohnowls said:0 -
I think we were all hoping the ARSE would get a second wind.... so to speak...JackW said:
The ARSE is retired but ....David_Evershed said:
What majority is ARSE predicting for Conservatives?JackW said:ICM and JackW - The Gold Standard - Strong And Stable.
Con Landslide
The JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index is bone dry at Con Maj of 1000 -
Can't see LDs winning any of those. Nowhere near in Yardley.Pulpstar said:
Cambridge, Burnley, Yardley, Bermondsey going off twitter this morning.Barnesian said:
LibDems quite sharply up from 3-18 to 7-21 in a day. I wonder what is driving that?IanB2 said:
On the core projections YouGov has since Saturday moved the Tories down three seats and Labour up seven. And - interestingly - the LibDems up from 10 to 13.Scott_P said:
I am getting the YG panel VI poll every other day now, latest yesterday.
It appears there is still a gradual trend away from the Tories, amongst their 50,000 at least, in seats, although vote shares haven't shifted. Support for the emergence of tactical voting?0 -
4 years after the Good Friday agreement?DecrepitJohnL said:
Another factor for the IRA was to keep its supporters both in Ireland and America onside, so there evolved a system of attacks against "justified" targets preceded by coded warnings to evacuate -- moving away from murdering civilians in pubs (or horses in parks or 8-year-olds at concerts) that caused a drop in donations.Sean_F said:
In most cases, there's a kind of unspoken bargain between the terrorists and security services. Each accepts limits on what they're willing to do. But, if the IRA had been carrying out random bombings on the Tube, or of pop concerts, I imagine the authorities would have responded much like the Israelis.Theuniondivvie said:
What would you have considered a 'much more savage response' in the context of the Troubles?Sean_F said:
But, then public opinion might have supported a much more savage response from the authorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a piece in The Times a few weeks ago which said if the IRA had the technology available now they would have caused a lot more carnage.Sean_F said:One big difference is that while PIRA were willing to risk their lives, they never carried out suicide attacks (they forced other people to).
It's very difficult to provide complete protection, when the attacker is willing to die as a martyr.
They'd have loved having mobile phones that triggered bombs for example
I'd imagine much of the time (like so many of these nasty little wars), a much more savage response was what the IRA wanted.
Edit: of course it is often said that what ended the IRA's campaign was 9/11 after which terrorism was no longer seen by Americans as justifiable.0 -
Would those 20,000 police officers have all been on duty on London Bridge and at Borough on Saturday night?logical_song said:
Maybe not axing 20,000 police officers would have been a good start.David_Evershed said:Lib Dems gambled on fighting the election on reversing Brexit.
Now the top topic is security, they seem to have nothing to say about how to stop terrorism.
Things can only get worse not better.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4571186/May-cut-police-numbers-paying-price.html
And even if they had, could they have stopped that attack?
Did all those extra officers,in the various forces, stop the attacks in 2005?
What point are you trying to make?
It appears that the meme from Labour HQ today is suggesting that the officers that took out the scum in 8 minutes weren't good enough. Nice.
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Lololol May just played the no time for a novice card!
Fabulous0 -
Grammar is not my strong point, TSE. I can see this site is edited by the alumnuses of very good schools.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, Tardises.camel said:
Tardi?AlastairMeeks said:
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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Tardi would not be good branding for a device intended to transport you to before an event.camel said:
Tardi?AlastairMeeks said:
Police officers will be issued with personal Tardises, enabling them to travel back to the moment before the crime was committed.Richard_Nabavi said:So, to be clear: if 8 minutes from first 999 call to the three terrorists lying dead and riddled with 50 bullets is evidence of insufficient police resources and preparation, how effective can we expect the response to be under Labour?
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Oh look, Roserees is back. Is there can election on?roserees64 said:It does not play well for a Prime Minister to refuse to publish a report which is so relevant to the threat from terror. Why is she afraid of offending the Saudis?
Theresa May is now appearing more weak as the days go on, she could be gone soon whatever happens in the election.0 -
You talk to any officer in London and they will tell you the force is underfunded and underresourced.Tony_M said:
Would those 20,000 police officers have all been on duty on London Bridge and at Borough on Saturday night?logical_song said:
Maybe not axing 20,000 police officers would have been a good start.David_Evershed said:Lib Dems gambled on fighting the election on reversing Brexit.
Now the top topic is security, they seem to have nothing to say about how to stop terrorism.
Things can only get worse not better.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4571186/May-cut-police-numbers-paying-price.html
And even if they had, could they have stopped that attack?
Did all those extra officers,in the various forces, stop the attacks in 2005?
What point are you trying to make?0 -
May is channelling Gordon Brown, almost using his 'no time for a novice' slogan.0
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Eight minutes is due to the Met having armed response vehicles cruising round central London 24x7. I'm not sure how it refutes the police cuts argument and even if it does, since Plato was barred there are not many floating voters left on pb.kjohnw said:
of course eight minutes from emergency call to 3 dead terrorists must be down to lack of police resources........bigjohnowls said:0 -
Maybe not spending all the money so the government had to cut stuff would have been a good start.logical_song said:
Maybe not axing 20,000 police officers would have been a good start.David_Evershed said:Lib Dems gambled on fighting the election on reversing Brexit.
Now the top topic is security, they seem to have nothing to say about how to stop terrorism.
Things can only get worse not better.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4571186/May-cut-police-numbers-paying-price.html
0
