politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s

One minute from our London office. If it had been a weekday this would have been 10x worse.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

nunu said:

williamglenn said:

Sun reporter on the scene says it was a B&Q van.

https://twitter.com/benleo89/status/871116284561420288

Do it yourself terrorists.

Jesus. My daughter and I and her mum were EXACTLY in that spot, this afternoon. That pavement in that photo

This gets far too close.

So what the F do we do now? Another pathetic vigil? Tea-candles? Hashtags?

Fuck that shit. Fuck it to hell and back

Don't forget your twitter and facebook "twibbon"...

When tragedy becomes regular it becomes mundane. it's amazing how much places can carry on normally after even worse events, once they become the norm. Depressing and uplifting at the same time.

If this is another of the sort of events as we now immediately presume, I have no idea what a reaction should even be. We spend so much time in doubt, worrying about overreaction to the point of inaction. Beyond me.

FrancisUrquhart said:

isam said:

This is all a bit too much now

Its ok, this time next week, PM Jezza will sort it all out.

Ffs give it a rest.

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

isam said:

This is all a bit too much now

Its ok, this time next week, PM Jezza will sort it all out.

Ffs give it a rest.

A f##king terrorist sympathizer leads your party, it is an absolute disgrace.

I poked fun at Miliband, as I did with Cameron and May, a bit of a plonker but he didn't surround himself with Marxists, Communists, Anti-semites and holocaust deniers.

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Prodicus said:

kjohnw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.

The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.

It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.

Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.

If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.

However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.

will the labour VAT bribe take them over the edge ??

Seem to remember you can't cut VAT under EU rules.

Oops

Brom said:

jonny83 said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/

Me thinks this is what Messina polls are telling the Tories. At least that would explain the lack of panic and seeming like little need to go nuclear and just skip interviews and debates.

Yes, every day that goes by without Project Fear suggests Tories are comfortable with the situation, and they can let the press get on with mobilising their vote.

I would agree, if the data they are getting matches some of the narrower tory poll leads I would have expected one last ditch vicious attack in the media and it hasn't happened yet.

So I think their data shows a narrowing but still a decent majority (their data/feedback could be wrong of course) so no panic.

My wobbles (no party affiliation but very anti Corbyn) have steadied in the past 48 hours and I've expressed already that I think there is nothing particularly special about the youth vote this time around and am expecting an increased Tory majority. Tonight has certainly helped reinforce my views and has been a good evening for Tory tickers. The one poll wildly outside my expectations is the one (survation) with the easiest to find flaws.

Well, when I was leafleting and canvassing this morning voters were looking me in the eye. Admittedly to the average voter the two deliveries per day from Farron's team reinforce the message of the Andrew Neil interview that he is a man who knows he has lost, and lost big.

Van went down to Borough market - three men jumped out with knives started stabbing people - cabbie on LBC who tried to run them over.

Blueberry said:

Van went down to Borough market - three men jumped out with knives started stabbing people - cabbie on LBC who tried to run them over.

oh FFS

Whatever you do don't bother reading Twitter it's already full of idiots demonstrating Dave's wisdom.

Blueberry said:

Van went down to Borough market - three men jumped out with knives started stabbing people - cabbie on LBC who tried to run them over.

Conjures up a weird image

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Ted Kennedy says hello.

Chapeau, Quiddick

Blueberry said:

Van went down to Borough market - three men jumped out with knives started stabbing people - cabbie on LBC who tried to run them over.

Horrific if confirmed.

View_From_Cumbria said:

Brom said:

jonny83 said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/

Me thinks this is what Messina polls are telling the Tories. At least that would explain the lack of panic and seeming like little need to go nuclear and just skip interviews and debates.

Yes, every day that goes by without Project Fear suggests Tories are comfortable with the situation, and they can let the press get on with mobilising their vote.

I would agree, if the data they are getting matches some of the narrower tory poll leads I would have expected one last ditch vicious attack in the media and it hasn't happened yet.

So I think their data shows a narrowing but still a decent majority (their data/feedback could be wrong of course) so no panic.

My wobbles (no party affiliation but very anti Corbyn) have steadied in the past 48 hours and I've expressed already that I think there is nothing particularly special about the youth vote this time around and am expecting an increased Tory majority. Tonight has certainly helped reinforce my views and has been a good evening for Tory tickers. The one poll wildly outside my expectations is the one (survation) with the easiest to find flaws.

Well, when I was leafleting and canvassing this morning voters were looking me in the eye. Admittedly to the average voter the two deliveries per day from Farron's team reinforce the message of the Andrew Neil interview that he is a man who knows he has lost, and lost big.

Can you just clarify that: you are saying Farron has lost his seat, and lost it big?

Guy on Sky News said he heard gunfire, ex military guy living in the area.

Gunfire reported on sky news. This could potentially be very, very bad.

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

alex. said:

The reports are getting worse. Not restricted to London Bridge, but Borough market, nightclubs etc

It's news hype. It looks like being at the *end* of London Bridge, where the road goes under the railway next to Borough Market. One location.

That's my suspicion. One man, one van, knocking over people, then jumping out and stabbing people. Seems the most likely explanation.

Everything else is Chinese whispers; I hope.

Seems a strange time to do it. Saturday during the day, any time during the week, and it would be chocka. Saturday night, though, there'd be comparatively fewer people around.

RobD said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Britain, five people were killed and 70 seriously injured on the roads today, as they are every day. Lots of grieving families and shattered lives.

Blueberry said:

suspects 'same appearance as the Manchester person' - cabbie on the scene.

2 legs, 2 arms? Hmm, narrows it down a bit.

Barnesian said:

RobD said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Britain, five people were killed and 70 seriously injured on the roads today, as they are every day. Lots of grieving families and shattered lives.

Yes, but attempted mass casualties are rare occurrences.

SeanT said:

nunu said:

williamglenn said:

Sun reporter on the scene says it was a B&Q van.

https://twitter.com/benleo89/status/871116284561420288

Do it yourself terrorists.

Jesus. My daughter and I and her mum were EXACTLY in that spot, this afternoon. That pavement in that photo

This gets far too close.

So what the F do we do now? Another pathetic vigil? Tea-candles? Hashtags?

Fuck that shit. Fuck it to hell and back

Sorry, we have to laugh or we cry.


Like I said I want to see internment and deportations if possible. Ban foreign funding of Mosques, ban the face veil force intergration with benefits sanctions etc. Literally force people to intergrate. I'm not trying to be flippant, I really believ when you have a section of society that is unwilling to intergrate then drastic and concerted action must be taken. Yes I have made up my mind to vote UKIP now as much as it pains me to say so. They are the only ones even talking about this. Just as UKIP forced our departure from the E.U they will hopefully force politicians to face this issue head on.

We cannot go softly softly over this. their literal stated aim is to force Muslim lives who live in the west to be so unbearable so that they are forced to choose. Either the west or the caliphate in syria/Iraq. They are basically aiming for the native population to turn on the muslims here, not as others have suggested to try to curtail democracy in the West, they dont care about that.

I want a strong robust statement from May not the usual they will not change our way of lives bs. Sorry that is not enough.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

isam said:

This is all a bit too much now

Its ok, this time next week, PM Jezza will sort it all out.

Ffs give it a rest.

A f##king terrorist sympathizer leads your party, it is an absolute disgrace.

I poked fun at Miliband, as I did with Cameron and May, a bit of a plonker but he didn't surround himself with Marxists, Communists, Anti-semites and holocaust deniers.

Not quite as much of a disgrace as you tonight, though.

I make no apologises for pointing this out about Corbyn. I want a decent Labour Party led by people who don't invite terrorists to the HoC a week after trying to murder the PM.

You have no decorum .

Chameleon said:

Gunfire reported on sky news. This could potentially be very, very bad.

On the other hand it could be good if it's the old bill killing them.

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

alex. said:

The reports are getting worse. Not restricted to London Bridge, but Borough market, nightclubs etc

It's news hype. It looks like being at the *end* of London Bridge, where the road goes under the railway next to Borough Market. One location.

That's my suspicion. One man, one van, knocking over people, then jumping out and stabbing people. Seems the most likely explanation.

Everything else is Chinese whispers; I hope.

Seems a strange time to do it. Saturday during the day, any time during the week, and it would be chocka. Saturday night, though, there'd be comparatively fewer people around.

They're targeting ordinary people out enjoying themselves. Just like Paris and Manchester.

Barnesian said:

RobD said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Britain, five people were killed and 70 seriously injured on the roads today, as they are every day. Lots of grieving families and shattered lives.

Fuck right off you dickhead.

SouthamObserver said:

Seems a strange time to do it. Saturday during the day, any time during the week, and it would be chocka. Saturday night, though, there'd be comparatively fewer people around.

That's the one saving grace with contemporary terrorism, you modern day Jihadist is often a bit of an idiot, and doesn't have the training and logistical support that terrorist of the 70s had.

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.

It is bloody accurate.

I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.

We are going to win.

I could have saved you the shoe leather ....

Con Landslide ....

I do have blisters today, actually.

But, it is very, very interesting to actually talk to real people.

Met a lovely lady yesterday - 91 next week, German, from Wuppertal, came here in '49, became a British citizen in 1950. Lost 10 members her family in an Allied raid in '43. Voting for Mrs May because she wants her to implement Brexit...

Best I ever met was a guy in Brum from the Welsh Valleys, was a life-long Labour man, coincidentally also 90 years old, never going to change his vote. But he invited me in for a drink and I had a fascinating chat - he used to play the piano for the silent movies!

Ha! Fascinating. I was invited in by one chap as well. Also had a near-Sean Thomas experience with a sultry 18-year old girl on the doorstep, who was chatting to me about going clubbing the previous night etc, but subtly flashed my wedding ring and moved on.

I would caution that it was *the men* who were more anti-Corbyn than the women, who were generally more sympathetic, but mainly in vociferousness. And, even a few Brexit supporter waverers who were leaning Con were still very worried about the NHS.

In fact, the NHS came up a lot.

Where is that £350m a week?

Ah yes. That old money tree ...

MaxPB said:

Barnesian said:

RobD said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Britain, five people were killed and 70 seriously injured on the roads today, as they are every day. Lots of grieving families and shattered lives.

Fuck right off you dickhead.

Get a grip and keep a sense of proportion.

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Best cure for any bedwetting.

Stop reading the interwebz and posting on forums, and go and knock on doors in a key marginal.

Worked for me in 2015. This time it feels a bit like the circus has moved on to the next town (Plymouth in this case!)

The Corbyn surge is real, but it is confined to London, major metropolitan cities, and areas with strong student/young populations, I think.

And, bizarrely, Wales, which I thought would go strongly Tory this time.

Fuck, I've been drinking in that pub right by the incident (The Barrowboy & Banker) many times

kle4 said:

Barnesian said:

RobD said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Britain, five people were killed and 70 seriously injured on the roads today, as they are every day. Lots of grieving families and shattered lives.

Yes, but attempted mass casualties are rare occurrences.

Yes, they are very rare.

ThreeQuidder said:

The election campaign just ended, really, didn't it?

I was out with my wife and a bunch of friends at Tower Hill, maybe half a mile away. If we'd turned right and walked to London Bridge for the Jubilee line instead of getting the DLR, as I'd considered...

Fuck.

We shouldn't allow these people to stop the democratic process.

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

alex. said:

The reports are getting worse. Not restricted to London Bridge, but Borough market, nightclubs etc

It's news hype. It looks like being at the *end* of London Bridge, where the road goes under the railway next to Borough Market. One location.

That's my suspicion. One man, one van, knocking over people, then jumping out and stabbing people. Seems the most likely explanation.

Everything else is Chinese whispers; I hope.

Seems a strange time to do it. Saturday during the day, any time during the week, and it would be chocka. Saturday night, though, there'd be comparatively fewer people around.

There's a kebab shop by the station south of the bridge, roughly where it seems to have hit, and the Barrow Boy pub will have had smokers outside. I used to live there, and on a warm Saturday night it would be heaving.

Have the American security sources said anything yet? Sorry.

jonny83 said:

Have the American security sources said anything yet? Sorry.

Will be interesting to see if they do leak anything this time.

jonny83 said:

Have the American security sources said anything yet? Sorry.

I somehow think that the UK spooks are currently informing them if you leak anything, we will be sending 008 Sean T over to seduce your daughters.

Let's tone down the personal insults. It's a bit heated at the moment.

The reports of gunfire are very concerning.

nunu said:

Like I said I want to see internment and deportations if possible. Ban foreign funding of Mosques, ban the face veil force intergration with benefits sanctions etc. Literally force people to intergrate. I'm not trying to be flippant, I really believ when you have a section of society that is unwilling to intergrate then drastic and concerted action must be taken. Yes I have made up my mind to vote UKIP now as much as it pains me to say so. They are the only ones even talking about this. Just as UKIP forced our departure from the E.U they will hopefully force politicians to face this issue head on.

We cannot go softly softly over this. their literal stated aim is to force Muslim lives who live in the west to be so unbearable so that they are forced to choose. Either the west or the caliphate in syria/Iraq. They are basically aiming for the native population to turn on the muslims here, not as others have suggested to try to curtail democracy in the West, they dont care about that.

I want a strong robust statement from May not the usual they will not change our way of lives bs. Sorry that is not enough.

You know who owns (at least a big share of) the Shard, much of Canary Wharf, the Olympic Village, and who bailed out Barclays, right? The Salafist state of Qatar.

how many attempts though, how many plots underway?

Chameleon said:

Blueberry said:

suspects 'same appearance as the Manchester person' - cabbie on the scene.

2 legs, 2 arms? Hmm, narrows it down a bit.

funny guy

PBModerator said:

Let's tone down the personal insults. It's a bit heated at the moment.

Tone down. But not stop? #stillattemptinghumour

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Whatever has happened, the election can't be allowed to be derailed by it IMHO.

This event *will* be extremely politicised.

It's far, far too close to the General Election.

Postponing the election would be a massive victory for the terrorists in my opinion.

Agreed.

Barnesian said:

RobD said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/871122513115439104

Would the be the widest reported drunk driver accident in history if that is the case?

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Britain, five people were killed and 70 seriously injured on the roads today, as they are every day. Lots of grieving families and shattered lives.

Your point is what exactly?

Lets wait and see on the gunfire. It seems to be based on one guy saying it was before the police sirens, but we don't know...it could easily that plod / SAS got there without the old neeenaaas on and took somebody out.

Could someone have stabbed someone else in Borough Market and then tried to make a getaway from armed police?

KentRising said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Whatever has happened, the election can't be allowed to be derailed by it IMHO.

This event *will* be extremely politicised.

It's far, far too close to the General Election.

Postponing the election would be a massive victory for the terrorists in my opinion.

Who's talking about postponing the election??? If the country stops every time something like this happens we may as well become a caliphate now.

Yeah it's not going to happen nor should it.

You can't let these bastards win.

Stabbing in the Southwark Tavern according to BBC witness.

But then that could have been a coincidence.

Blueberry said:

Chameleon said:

Blueberry said:

suspects 'same appearance as the Manchester person' - cabbie on the scene.

2 legs, 2 arms? Hmm, narrows it down a bit.

LBC has settled on 'Mediterranean'

Well the old Italians are notoriously bad drivers...