Anyone a bit worried about the security of polling stations next Thursday?
Don't start talking like that, you'll have the election postponed. The show must go on.
I don't think so. But might see increased police/army presence in the vicinity of stations. (incidentally, as a knock on, would probably focus minds on security when people vote)
Even that ICM has 98% of respondents saying they are registered to vote and 73% of people saying they are 10/10 certain to vote. I find that extremely unlikely.
I walked past London Bridge with my 11 year old daughter this afternoon
I'm sorry but I hate these people. I want them all gone. Anyone with any links, intern or deport
That won't provoke any adverse reactions, nope none whatsoever.
Who gives a fuck. We had to bomb the Nazis. They reacted. We won.
This isn't a conventional enemy, they don't wear uniforms, speak a different language, or carry guns. The only way to tackle this is to target the places funding the versions of islam causing these problems, such as Saudi, who we export masses of weapons to.
I hope there are no deaths, how incredibly sad. Obviously not at all important but was saying to Mrs Brom an hour ago that I wasnt putting on my final bets until Wednesday in case of a black swan event. This is an all too familiar event in the Western World unfortunately.
I walked past London Bridge with my 11 year old daughter this afternoon
I'm sorry but I hate these people. I want them all gone. Anyone with any links, intern or deport
That won't provoke any adverse reactions, nope none whatsoever.
Who gives a fuck. We had to bomb the Nazis. They reacted. We won.
This isn't a conventional enemy, they don't wear uniforms, speak a different language, or carry guns. The only way to tackle this is to target the places funding the versions of islam causing these problems, such as Saudi, who we export masses of weapons to.
Even that ICM has 98% of respondents saying they are registered to vote and 73% of people saying they are 10/10 certain to vote. I find that extremely unlikely.
Why don't ICM/the pollsters just dismiss/exclude anyone not registered to vote?
Corbyn rushing to London Bridge with a cup of tea and wag of the finger for the terrorists.
Not now.
Anyway, there won't be hardly any campaigning left in this GE after this - campaigning will likely stop for some days.
No, tragic though this is it is not on the scale of the over 20 who were killed in the Manchester concert attack and even then the pause was arguably too long, campaigning should resume as usual, democracy cannot be stopped by terrorism especially with a general election 5 days away
Corbyn rushing to London Bridge with a cup of tea and wag of the finger for the terrorists.
Not now.
Anyway, there won't be hardly any campaigning left in this GE after this - campaigning will likely stop for some days.
Fuck sake. You know what the best reaction would be? Start campaigning tomorrow morning at 9am, don't let them change our ways. But no there will be a mourning one-upmanship contest until our election.
All present methodologies used in the UK would seem to be bollocks certainly. We can use the Stephen Hawking time travel logic to demonstrate that. If it were possible then someone would. If there were an essentially fool proof polling mechanism the fact that body got the right answer would soon make their methodology the only methodology.
Of course some of these polls will be right - in part.
I thought at the time the council of war / IPM the pollsters held after 2015 showed they did not begin to grasp the issue.
I suspect the brains who could collectively devise a polling mechanism that could work, if any could work are regulars on this site.
Remember, if Corbyn does achieve 35% he will have done better than any other Labour leader elected in the last 40 years - bar one. And this despite being the weakest, most corrupt, stupidest and most dishonest of them all.
What is your basis for calling Jeremy Corbyn "corrupt"?
How about getting his son a cushy number in Macdonnell's office? How about appointing Macdonnell and Abbott over the heads of better qualified candidates?
I could find more examples but those are without bothering to think.
All present methodologies used in the UK would seem to be bollocks certainly. We can use the Stephen Hawking time travel logic to demonstrate that. If it were possible then someone would. If there were an essentially fool proof polling mechanism the fact that body got the right answer would soon make their methodology the only methodology.
Of course some of these polls will be right - in part.
I thought at the time the council of war / IPM the pollsters held after 2015 showed they did not begin to grasp the issue.
I suspect the brains who could collectively devise a polling mechanism that could work, if any could work are regulars on this site.
Just a thought...you know the saying those who can't, teach.
I wonder, data science has become so incredibly valuable, I just wonder if those that really can i.e. Messina, get paid a fortune for their services and ain't going to share their data or their models.
YouGov and alike at the end of the day don't make money with political polling, it is the market research stuff that is what makes the readies.
Corbyn rushing to London Bridge with a cup of tea and wag of the finger for the terrorists.
Not now.
Anyway, there won't be hardly any campaigning left in this GE after this - campaigning will likely stop for some days.
No, tragic though this is it is not on the scale of the over 20 who were killed in the Manchester concert attack and even then the pause was arguably too long, campaigning should resume as usual, democracy cannot be stopped by terrorism especially with a general election 5 days away
I at least hope this is the case. Please no loss of life and please continue the campaign on Monday if not tomorrow. This shouldn't stop our democracy.
I walked past London Bridge with my 11 year old daughter this afternoon
I'm sorry but I hate these people. I want them all gone. Anyone with any links, intern or deport
That won't provoke any adverse reactions, nope none whatsoever.
Who gives a fuck. We had to bomb the Nazis. They reacted. We won.
This isn't a conventional enemy, they don't wear uniforms, speak a different language, or carry guns. The only way to tackle this is to target the places funding the versions of islam causing these problems, such as Saudi, who we export masses of weapons to.
I'm too upset and angry right now. I should probably stop posting. I was right there a few hours ago with my beloved daughter, the sun was shining and London was so happy.
But I hate them. I hate them. I hate them
Agreed, I started the celebrations of my birthday by meeting my mates on the bridge 46 days ago at exactly this time, but going the other way isn't going to help anything whatsoever.
F##king Kim Jong May better not come out with wishy washy bollocks.
What do you want, public executions of anyone with a beard length over 9cm?
Don't be stupid. But I don't want any of this "nothing to do with Islam" bollocks.
Well yeah, agreed, that sort of stuff really pisses me off. However there should be more political pressure on May to cut Saudi off from the international community.
Corbyn rushing to London Bridge with a cup of tea and wag of the finger for the terrorists.
Not now.
Anyway, there won't be hardly any campaigning left in this GE after this - campaigning will likely stop for some days.
No, tragic though this is it is not on the scale of the over 20 who were killed in the Manchester concert attack and even then the pause was arguably too long, campaigning should resume as usual, democracy cannot be stopped by terrorism especially with a general election 5 days away
I at least hope this is the case. Please no loss of life and please continue the campaign on Monday if not tomorrow. This shouldn't stop our democracy.
Yes, we can't keep stopping every time this happens, in any case other than a brief pause to remember unless the government actually does something about it ie imposes a travel ban to Syria and Libya, interns radical Islamists etc it is all largely pointless anyway to suspend the campaign
F##king Kim Jong May better not come out with wishy washy bollocks.
What do you want, public executions of anyone with a beard length over 9cm?
Don't be stupid. But I don't want any of this "nothing to do with Islam" bollocks.
Well yeah, agreed, that sort of stuff really pisses me off. However there should be more political pressure on May to cut Saudi off from the international community.
Interestingly, in the recent freakonomics podcast about surveys vs data science, they talked about this phase that Obama used and found it was actually hugely counter-productive.
All present methodologies used in the UK would seem to be bollocks certainly. We can use the Stephen Hawking time travel logic to demonstrate that. If it were possible then someone would. If there were an essentially fool proof polling mechanism the fact that body got the right answer would soon make their methodology the only methodology.
Of course some of these polls will be right - in part.
I thought at the time the council of war / IPM the pollsters held after 2015 showed they did not begin to grasp the issue.
I suspect the brains who could collectively devise a polling mechanism that could work, if any could work are regulars on this site.
Just a thought...you know the saying those who can't, teach.
I wonder, data science has become so incredibly valuable, I just wonder if those that really can i.e. Messina, get paid a fortune for their services and ain't going to share their data or their models.
YouGov and alike at the end of the day don't make money with political polling, it is the market research stuff that is what makes the readies.
So if they aren't making money out of it and the publicity it generates is wholly and deservedly negative, how much more humiliation and brand damage do they want before they pull out?
F##king Kim Jong May better not come out with wishy washy bollocks.
What do you want, public executions of anyone with a beard length over 9cm?
Nick Timothy may have screwed up the manifesto but firing him should suffice, surely?
Despite the grimness that made me laugh! Thank you!
(Although the verb 'to fire' is an execution metaphor - from the order given to firing parties. Similarly 'sacking' is derived from hanging, where they used to cover the faces of the condemned.)
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
What (rough) demographics were they sending you after? Lots of c1/c2 +35 plus working women?
Waverers and undecided, bookended by socialists and solid Cons to check voting stability at either end.
Hard to pointlessly knock on a socialists door to be (very occasionally) berated, but important to reaffirm data validity.
The printed canvass sheets I had were 90-95% accurate in the voters stated intention.
Why I am confident?
A lot of the canvass data was from late April/early May, and showed no real movement between now and then, aside from waverers/undecided firming up.
All present methodologies used in the UK would seem to be bollocks certainly. We can use the Stephen Hawking time travel logic to demonstrate that. If it were possible then someone would. If there were an essentially fool proof polling mechanism the fact that body got the right answer would soon make their methodology the only methodology.
Of course some of these polls will be right - in part.
I thought at the time the council of war / IPM the pollsters held after 2015 showed they did not begin to grasp the issue.
I suspect the brains who could collectively devise a polling mechanism that could work, if any could work are regulars on this site.
Just a thought...you know the saying those who can't, teach.
I wonder, data science has become so incredibly valuable, I just wonder if those that really can i.e. Messina, get paid a fortune for their services and ain't going to share their data or their models.
YouGov and alike at the end of the day don't make money with political polling, it is the market research stuff that is what makes the readies.
So if they aren't making money out of it and the publicity it generates is wholly and deservedly negative, how much more humiliation and brand damage do they want before they pull out?
All these companies used to use the political polling as a showcase of their services. However, YouGov in particular sell the fact they have this enormous panel. The fact that there is loads of absolute bullshit in there (as illustrated by Dave Gorman) hasn't seemed to harm their business. In fact, I am pretty sure they made record profits in the past few years.
9am tomorrow morning all parties should be campaigning, and if they aren't then it suggests that they're using this to cover shortcomings in their campaigning.
9am tomorrow morning all parties should be campaigning, and if they aren't then it suggests that they're using this to cover shortcomings in their campaigning.
It may be callous, but this doesn't seem as bad as the Manchester incident. Suspect things will continue on regardless given the number of days left.
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
What (rough) demographics were they sending you after? Lots of c1/c2 +35 plus working women?
Waverers and undecided, bookended by socialists and solid Cons to check voting stability at either end.
Hard to pointlessly knock on a socialists door to be (very occasionally) berated, but important to reaffirm data validity.
The printed canvass sheets I had were 90-95% accurate in the voters stated intention.
Why I am confident?
A lot of the canvass data was from late April/early May, and showed no real movement between now and then, aside from waverers/undecided firming up.
9am tomorrow morning all parties should be campaigning, and if they aren't then it suggests that they're using this to cover shortcomings in their campaigning.
We have to face the grim reality that this will be a regular event and if we stop for a mourning festival after every one then life will never return to normal.
9am tomorrow morning all parties should be campaigning, and if they aren't then it suggests that they're using this to cover shortcomings in their campaigning.
It may be callous, but this doesn't seem as bad as the Manchester incident. Suspect things will continue on regardless given the number of days left.
Yeah, to be fair the Manchester incident was ridiculous as well, it became a period of mourning one-upmanship.
All these companies used to use the political polling as a showcase of their services. However, YouGov in particular sell the fact they have this enormous panel. The fact that there is loads of absolute bullshit in there (as illustrated by Dave Gorman) hasn't seemed to harm their business. In fact, I am pretty sure they made record profits in the past few years.
A cynic might say that companies use market research to justify what they want to do, not to find out what they should do. So results only have to be right, not true.
F##king Kim Jong May better not come out with wishy washy bollocks.
What do you want, public executions of anyone with a beard length over 9cm?
Don't be stupid. But I don't want any of this "nothing to do with Islam" bollocks.
Well yeah, agreed, that sort of stuff really pisses me off. However there should be more political pressure on May to cut Saudi off from the international community.
She went there and licked all the hands and the other places.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
I could have saved you the shoe leather ....
Con Landslide ....
I do have blisters today, actually.
But, it is very, very interesting to actually talk to real people.
Met a lovely lady yesterday - 91 next week, German, from Wuppertal, came here in '49, became a British citizen in 1950. Lost 10 members her family in an Allied raid in '43. Voting for Mrs May because she wants her to implement Brexit...
Best I ever met was a guy in Brum from the Welsh Valleys, was a life-long Labour man, coincidentally also 90 years old, never going to change his vote. But he invited me in for a drink and I had a fascinating chat - he used to play the piano for the silent movies!
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
What (rough) demographics were they sending you after? Lots of c1/c2 +35 plus working women?
Waverers and undecided, bookended by socialists and solid Cons to check voting stability at either end.
Hard to pointlessly knock on a socialists door to be (very occasionally) berated, but important to reaffirm data validity.
The printed canvass sheets I had were 90-95% accurate in the voters stated intention.
Why I am confident?
A lot of the canvass data was from late April/early May, and showed no real movement between now and then, aside from waverers/undecided firming up.
It would backup why Tory national campaign really hasn't done anything.
All these companies used to use the political polling as a showcase of their services. However, YouGov in particular sell the fact they have this enormous panel. The fact that there is loads of absolute bullshit in there (as illustrated by Dave Gorman) hasn't seemed to harm their business. In fact, I am pretty sure they made record profits in the past few years.
A cynic might say that companies use market research to justify what they want to do, not to find out what they should do. So results only have to be right, not true.
You may say that, but I couldn't possibly comment....
"BBC reporter Holly Jones, who was on the bridge at the time of the incident, said the van was driven by a male driver and was "probably travelling at about 50 miles an hour". About five people were being treated for injuries after the vehicle mounted the pavement and hit them, she said."
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
Its interesting that you were in Southampton Test - 5% swing required, significant student population, demographically trending Labour - rather than marginal Conservative Southampton Itchen.
If Southampton Test goes Conservative then it will be a landslide, maybe a big landslide, victory.
I reckon Labour by 1,000-1,500, but it was saturated with activists and MPs today. Interesting, most students don't actually live in that constituency.
Candidate says extremely close, and gave me very specific numbers from CCHQ, but I discount that because he needs to motivate the troops.
My data shows close but no cigar, but I could be wrong and - in any event - that means it is probably looking very good in other seats.
F##king Kim Jong May better not come out with wishy washy bollocks.
What do you want, public executions of anyone with a beard length over 9cm?
Don't be stupid. But I don't want any of this "nothing to do with Islam" bollocks.
Well yeah, agreed, that sort of stuff really pisses me off. However there should be more political pressure on May to cut Saudi off from the international community.
She went there and licked all the hands and the other places.
It is Libya and Syria which is more a problem in terms of radicalisation now and Saudi is bombing ISIS
Comments
Anyway, there won't be hardly any campaigning left in this GE after this - campaigning will likely stop for some days.
Stop reading the interwebz and posting on forums, and go and knock on doors in a key marginal.
Of course some of these polls will be right - in part.
I thought at the time the council of war / IPM the pollsters held after 2015 showed they did not begin to grasp the issue.
I suspect the brains who could collectively devise a polling mechanism that could work, if any could work are regulars on this site.
I could find more examples but those are without bothering to think.
The video footage looks like it's at the exact place I had one of my most mental rows w the ex - top of Tooley St
I don't know how people can live in inner London nowadays, I'd be even more of a nervous wreck
I wonder, data science has become so incredibly valuable, I just wonder if those that really can i.e. Messina, get paid a fortune for their services and ain't going to share their data or their models.
YouGov and alike at the end of the day don't make money with political polling, it is the market research stuff that is what makes the readies.
But, it is very, very interesting to actually talk to real people.
But fingers crossed there are no fatalities. Please god.
Seriously, Labour have got all overexcited again. Meanwhile normal Britons are flocking towards May and her manifesto!
I am always terrified by knocking on the first few doors (so unBritish) but by the end, I'm really enjoying it - and loving it.
Like anything in life, it's getting started and into it that's the hardest bit!
https://twitter.com/TessDeLaMare
(Although the verb 'to fire' is an execution metaphor - from the order given to firing parties. Similarly 'sacking' is derived from hanging, where they used to cover the faces of the condemned.)
Pardon me, I'm not canvassing for a party, I'm just a nosey bastard - how are you voting?
Hard to pointlessly knock on a socialists door to be (very occasionally) berated, but important to reaffirm data validity.
The printed canvass sheets I had were 90-95% accurate in the voters stated intention.
Why I am confident?
A lot of the canvass data was from late April/early May, and showed no real movement between now and then, aside from waverers/undecided firming up.
Why not?
Best I ever met was a guy in Brum from the Welsh Valleys, was a life-long Labour man, coincidentally also 90 years old, never going to change his vote. But he invited me in for a drink and I had a fascinating chat - he used to play the piano for the silent movies!
The worrying thing is it isn't clear they have the driver.
I reckon Derby North very promising for Lab
NE Derbyshire looked like Tory Gain last time I was there. Now described by fellow travellers as on a knife edge
It's time for action.
About five people were being treated for injuries after the vehicle mounted the pavement and hit them, she said."
Candidate says extremely close, and gave me very specific numbers from CCHQ, but I discount that because he needs to motivate the troops.
My data shows close but no cigar, but I could be wrong and - in any event - that means it is probably looking very good in other seats.