Yeah, even if the 72% is watched or heard of it, the poll claims 40% watched some of it live, which is rubbish.
Yes a 40% audience share is complete bollocks tbh.
Yet Faisal Islam tweeted that bollox without considering whether it sounded reasonable - even though everyone here immediately noticed something suspicious.
Survation (the ones with the 1% difference now), interestingly, were the only polling company to call the 2015 election correctly. That was with a phone poll and the numbers were so different to anything else, including their own online polls, they pulled it as rogue.
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
Me thinks this is what Messina polls are telling the Tories. At least that would explain the lack of panic and seeming like little need to go nuclear and just skip interviews and debates.
Yes, every day that goes by without Project Fear suggests Tories are comfortable with the situation, and they can let the press get on with mobilising their vote.
I would agree, if the data they are getting matches some of the narrower tory poll leads I would have expected one last ditch vicious attack in the media and it hasn't happened yet.
So I think their data shows a narrowing but still a decent majority (their data/feedback could be wrong of course) so no panic.
My wobbles (no party affiliation but very anti Corbyn) have steadied in the past 48 hours and I've expressed already that I think there is nothing particularly special about the youth vote this time around and am expecting an increased Tory majority. Tonight has certainly helped reinforce my views and has been a good evening for Tory tickers. The one poll wildly outside my expectations is the one (survation) with the easiest to find flaws.
The sampling is dodgy, so take it as you will, the Survation poll asked several questions about the nuclear weapons which indicate Jeremy Corbyn wasn't harmed by his response. Equal numbers approve and disapprove of it and only a minority think it makes him unfit to be PM.
Arguably the best newspaper for the 1% Tory lead to appear in, from a Conservative point of view, is the Mail on Sunday. Worst would have been the Observer.
Was just going to post the same about the Mail ; it's the most stirring stuff for the tory hardcore.
Having lost the 'strong and stable' mantle, I don't think it's a good move to spend the last few days campaigning on the basis of being more willing to use nuclear weapons than the other guy.
The fieldwork for a lot of these polls were before QT, more like Tues, Weds and Thurs.
I think this is closest to the result we might actually see, of everything that's been shown around tonight.
No, ICM and Comres will be closer as they properly weigh on 2015 turnout.
But the huge YouGov model weights on 2010 and 2015 turnout. You need to think of an extra reason for believing ICM and Comres and not the big YouGov model.
Ashcroft has a model with a Tory majority of 60 seats based on 2015 turnout, which is more in line with ICM and Comres. The Yougov model predicting a hung parliament is likely to be as wrong as their main polling unless there is a surge in youth turnout on Thursday
To repeat - the huge YouGov model weights turnout according to data for 2010 and 2015. In other words, the assumption about youth turnout is that it will be the same as in previous elections.
It obviously doesn't weigh it as well as ICM and Comres and Ashcroft do and its main poll only filters by stated certainty to vote, not actual 2015 turnout demographics
Crikey, how many times do I have to say I'm talking about the huge YouGov model? Not the individual YouGov polls.
So why do you think they are "obviously" not doing their stated weighting correctly?
Thursday and Friday will be mostly cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain spreading in from the southwest. The rain could be occasionally heavy, particularly in the south, with an increased risk of thundery downpours here, but it will become brighter in the west later.
One thing we now know there is not going to be any buckets of shit incoming for Corbyn from the Tory press. If the Mail on Sunday's big splash is May just reiterating the Jezza is soft on security, they aren't going to do him with hit piece after hit piece.
Arguably the best newspaper for the 1% Tory lead to appear in, from a Conservative point of view, is the Mail on Sunday. Worst would have been the Observer.
Was just going to post the same about the Mail ; it's the most stirring stuff for the tory hardcore.
True. We will nuke 'em. After all, no one will bomb the shires. Nobody even knows where they are.
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
will the labour VAT bribe take them over the edge ??
Having lost the 'strong and stable' mantle, I don't think it's a good move to spend the last few days campaigning on the basis of being more willing to use nuclear weapons than the other guy.
This is very true especially when IIRC the country is split fairly evenly over renewing Trident. If the Labour party had just come out and said we will not renew it then Jeremy would not got into the tangle he managed to on QT.
The giveaways are probably working, and it keeps the tax issues in the news. Yet Labour ought to be careful, there is a threshold when it comes to economic credibility and freebies, and although mine was passed long ago there will be some centre left voters who might themselves think his spending plans are now verging on the ridiculous.
So it is either too close to call or a landslide...
This is madness. Utter madness.
On the other hand it makes our elections WAY more interesting than the tedious, regimented French processions of Gallic voter robots who can be predicted to the third decimal place, with great accuracy, and all tension ends three weeks before the vote.
TBF there was a fair bit of MLP hopeful wanking until quite late on.
I know she was desperate to get people to vote for her but im not sure MLP went that far..
I think I would be better relying on how many seconds my next piss takes....Tory lead = seconds of full stream...
But like the polls it does depend on the time of day the sample is taken. If 2 in the morning to many old people who have multiple opportunities to participate if 12 on a Sunday too many youngsters just getting up. It's all about getting the right "specimum"
I shall do what the pollster do...adjust for these factors ;-)
I forgot that it was directly proportional to the fluid intake the previous evening and wether a curry was involved
Not forgetting the bed wetters who are excluded from the poll
I think this is closest to the result we might actually see, of everything that's been shown around tonight.
No, ICM and Comres will be closer as they properly weigh on 2015 turnout.
But the huge YouGov model weights on 2010 and 2015 turnout. You need to think of an extra reason for believing ICM and Comres and not the big YouGov model.
Ashcroft has a model with a Tory majority of 60 seats based on 2015 turnout, which is more in line with ICM and Comres. The Yougov model predicting a hung parliament is likely to be as wrong as their main polling unless there is a surge in youth turnout on Thursday
To repeat - the huge YouGov model weights turnout according to data for 2010 and 2015. In other words, the assumption about youth turnout is that it will be the same as in previous elections.
It obviously doesn't weigh it as well as ICM and Comres and Ashcroft do and its main poll only filters by stated certainty to vote, not actual 2015 turnout demographics
Crikey, how many times do I have to say I'm talking about the huge YouGov model? Not the individual YouGov polls.
So why do you think they are "obviously" not doing their stated weighting correctly?
This supposedly 'brilliant' yougov model which magically chimes in almost exactly with their main poll you mean, ie May possibly losing her majority or seeing it fall? That model? A model which is also completely contradicted by ICM, Comres and Ashcroft's model
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
The average of tonight's polls isn't far off 45/35. As I posted below, it's 43.7/36.5.
Having lost the 'strong and stable' mantle, I don't think it's a good move to spend the last few days campaigning on the basis of being more willing to use nuclear weapons than the other guy.
This is very true especially when IIRC the country is split fairly evenly over renewing Trident. If the Labour party had just come out and said we will not renew it then Jeremy would not got into the tangle he managed to on QT.
Yeah, his policy is basically to spend £40billion for absolutely no reason.
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
Some of us have consistently rejected the Lab surge, trust in ICM.
So it is either too close to call or a landslide...
This is madness. Utter madness.
On the other hand it makes our elections WAY more interesting than the tedious, regimented French processions of Gallic voter robots who can be predicted to the third decimal place, with great accuracy, and all tension ends three weeks before the vote.
TBF there was a fair bit of MLP hopeful wanking until quite late on.
Only from nutters. MLP's 2d round vote - around 35% - was predicted by me and virtually everyone else on PB six months before it happened. YAWN.
The accuracy of French pollsters in the FIRST round is much more interesting. How do they nail it so precisely?
We are a nation of liars, while the French tell the truth? It would be interesting to see whether shy [partyXers], misremembering previous voting behaviour, etc etc vary between cultures. My theory is we lie out of habit these days, esp when talking to a computer. If asked "Have you read our T & C" you don't answer truthfully, you say whatever gets you through to the next screen. It would only take (has only taken) a ~20% reduction in our propensity to tell the truth to render polling valueless. The polling co.s are (I have said this before) Ptolemaic astronomers inventing more and more epicycles to try and bridge the gap between their flawed model, and reality.
@ShippersUnbound: In Sunday Times interview Boris Johnson accuses Corbyn of a "triple tax whammy" that will cost families £5,000 a year
@ShippersUnbound: Boris Johnson accuses Corbyn of being in charge of "a sleeper cell of crypto-communists that have taken over Labour". See Sunday Times
I think this is closest to the result we might actually see, of everything that's been shown around tonight.
No, ICM and Comres will be closer as they properly weigh on 2015 turnout. Yougov had it tied in its final 2015 poll and the Tories led by 7%, so if the Tories lead by 4% with Yougov and they make the same error that suggests the Tories will be 11% ahead on the night
Turnout will be higher than 2015
Evidence?
I campaigned in 2015. I'm campaigning in 2017.
I campaigned in 2010 and am campaigning in 2017 and I detect no sudden surge, in fact I have had more than a few who won't vote or will spoil their ballots
Having lost the 'strong and stable' mantle, I don't think it's a good move to spend the last few days campaigning on the basis of being more willing to use nuclear weapons than the other guy.
The fieldwork for a lot of these polls were before QT, more like Tues, Weds and Thurs.
Though arguably Thur (and Wed to a degree) should have been bad for Con with the lead news story being May missing the debate.
Debate was Wed 7.30pm but Wed 1pm and Wed 6pm news led on May not turning up.
So, after everything the last two weeks, it's Labour who feel they need to go for the panicky last minute change of policy. Suggests they think the +10s are the ballpark.
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
Some of us have consistently rejected the Lab surge, trust in ICM.
Actually, I do think youth turnout will be higher than 2015' but only a bit. Nine point lead?
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
Some of us have consistently rejected the Lab surge, trust in ICM.
In for a penny, in for a trillion....VAT is the most effective tax going, as it is basically unavoidable (unless you like jail time).
Clearly you are someone who doesn't have much interaction with builders and the like.
Yes you can get handy man stuff done VAT free, but nothing you purchase from any shop can you avoid the VAT (and virtually nobody fiddles it...yes I know some people put a computer through the company, but compared to income tax planning, it is tiny).
And as I say, those who do proper VAT fiddling you are going to the nick, unlike all those tax efficiency schemes so beloved by the rich and famous.
The problem with cutting VAT is that most retailers will not pass on the savings to their customers as they have been absorbing the increased cost from the suppliers since the pound lost value after the referendum all it will do is reduce the tax take for a government that suddenly want to spend a lot more money and the deficit will just get worse
Having lost the 'strong and stable' mantle, I don't think it's a good move to spend the last few days campaigning on the basis of being more willing to use nuclear weapons than the other guy.
The fieldwork for a lot of these polls were before QT, more like Tues, Weds and Thurs.
Though arguably Thur (and Wed to a degree) should have been bad for Con with the lead news story being May missing the debate.
Debate was Wed 7.30pm but Wed 1pm and Wed 6pm news led on May not turning up.
The trend has been consistent for over a fortnight now, ICM and Comres have Tory leads of more than 10%, Yougov and Survation have Tory leads of under 5%. Only one set of them can be right, two of the 4 are going to have had yet another polling disaster on Friday morning
In your previous thread you asked some questions. The answer to some of them I will have to write up into an article. But one of them I will answer now.
Q: "Do pollsters suffer from bad results" A: "Yes, but not in the way you think"
From memory, there have been cases where pollsters have stopped polling due to bad results. Angus Reid, a Canadian company, tried to poll 2010 UKGE, did not do well, and have not polled since. RedC? in Ireland got Lisbon I wrong and did not poll Lisbon II, (tho they did poll in later years). Populus famously fucked up 2016 EURef and have voluntarily withdrawn from polling voting intention until they can fix things, which I thought reflected well on them.
They do not suffer much financially. For example, TNS-BRMB have now been taken over by Kantar, which is a bigger company doing consumer research generally. I *think* polling companies are either small companies dominated by wealthy individuals who do polling as a hobby or - less insulting - a legitimate personal belief in the value of polling (cf Ashcroft), or subdivisions of much larger conglomerates. At both extremes, the financial loss is not important but the reputational loss is important.
Pollsters have an emotional attachment to getting their results right, and invest personal pride and reputation in doing so. They are very like academics in that way and there is an overlap: they enjoy each other's company. So don't think they don't try to get it right, and they do suffer when they get it wrong.
But...they don't bleed.
Peter Kellner championed phone polls in the EUref and was wrong. But he did not lose his house. Lord Cooper's firm Populus had Remain with a 10-pt lead and will not die in the gutter. Their loss is reputational but not serious. I sometimes wonder what would happen if somebody put a gun to their head: I assume the results would be...interesting
@ShippersUnbound: In Sunday Times interview Boris Johnson accuses Corbyn of a "triple tax whammy" that will cost families £5,000 a year
@ShippersUnbound: Boris Johnson accuses Corbyn of being in charge of "a sleeper cell of crypto-communists that have taken over Labour". See Sunday Times
They should have deployed this erhhhh the day after the Labour manifesto...
There are a bunch of lefty fcukwits on UKPR who are already removing Theresa May from her party leadership due to Labours crushing victory on Thursday.
Reflecting on the campaigns today, it strikes me that the Conservative campaign hasn't really been the worst of all time, at least not in execution. It hasn't been massively inspiring, and the manifesto contained a tad more realism than is to the taste of the average voter, but Diane Abbot alone has given us two moments more excrutiating than anything the Tories have produced. I'd say the Tory campaign has, in execution, been rather better than that either of the Labour Party or the Lib Dems. The problem for the Tories was it turned out that 'Jez is awful' was already priced in - Labour would have had to come up with something far more amazingly awful than not being able to cost their own policies to have sunk further in the voters' estimation. Meanwhile, the election stopped being a general election on who do you most trust to run the country, and instead became a massive by-election on do you like the government. The Tories were obviously rather better placed in relation to the first question than the second. I don't think this is a result of either campaign - I think it is partially the giddiness of an unscheduled election, and partly the early Tory landslide meme.
I think thats right. I would add that both campaigns made it all about Jez. And Jez is a good stomp campaigner and a smiley old codger / homeless dude that you'd give the time of day to. A Tory campaign based on Team Tez (DD, PH, AR etc) v Team Jez (JmD, DA, er? them?) would have had far more impact.
Magnifico Giganticus
PS I hate Ronaldo as much as I hate the Second Foundation.
The giveaways are probably working, and it keeps the tax issues in the news. Yet Labour ought to be careful, there is a threshold when it comes to economic credibility and freebies, and although mine was passed long ago there will be some centre left voters who might themselves think his spending plans are now verging on the ridiculous.
At least it make a change to 2 years ago when they were squabbling over how to spend £6 Billion which is less than 1% of the total Government expenditure. The clear difference in tax and spend makes it hard to think that there are so many switchers from Tory to Labour that some pollsters are finding. The parties are just so different this election.
The problem with cutting VAT is that most retailers will not pass on the savings to their customers as they have been absorbing the increased cost from the suppliers since the pound lost value after the referendum all it will do is reduce the tax take for a government that suddenly want to spend a lot more money and the deficit will just get worse
The opposite is true as well. When Osborne put it up to 20%, everybody went oh they will screw spending, and it didn't affect it one jot. It is because here in the UK it is hidden. In the US you see everything without the tax, so you really notice (or if you go to Oregon, you go Wooooophhhiiieeeee no VAT).
The only place you really notice VAT and how crazy it is, is if you shop at somewhere like CostCo where you see both prices.
@ShippersUnbound: Jeremy Corbyn is measuring the Downing Street drapes. He tells Sunday Times he will hang art by "splatter" artist Bosh on walls of No10
The McDonnell VAT policy is not a promise, it appears to be an aspiration, funded by future economic growth (which obviously isn't going to happen, other than where it is created by government spending). Marr should be able may him look ridiculous within a couple of questions tomorrow.
The McDonnell VAT policy is not a promise, it appears to be an aspiration, funded by future economic growth (which obviously isn't going to happen, other than where it is created by government spending). Marr should be able may him look ridiculous within a couple of questions tomorrow.
You are relying on Marr to bury a Labour man....yeah right. He will ask him, have him squirm a little bit and then move on without landing the killer blow...like are you are Marxist....you said you aren't , oh ok, next.
Where as if it is a Tory, time to flash up the embarrassing photo mid answer.
Well I did write a thread saying exactly this... but was told it wasn't really relevant
Why doesn't someone who is allowed write basically the same thread so we can discuss it? I was going to ask @AlastairMeeks to submit it under his name, wish I had now.
I wont ask for any recognition, I want the theory to get the praise
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
Some of us have consistently rejected the Lab surge, trust in ICM.
ICM lead down from 22 to 11 though
When is a surge a surge?
There's been a minor party squeeze and some non voters, a little bit more youth. It's definitely been a surge, but I think it's now hit a brick wall and I'm prepared to believe Corbyn cannot get above 37% as there are no voters left to pick up, which in fairness is 7 points better than what I thought a couple of months ago.
I think this is closest to the result we might actually see, of everything that's been shown around tonight.
No, ICM and Comres will be closer as they properly weigh on 2015 turnout.
But the huge YouGov model weights on 2010 and 2015 turnout. You need to think of an extra reason for believing ICM and Comres and not the big YouGov model.
Ashcroft has a model with a Tory majority of 60 seats based on 2015 turnout, which is more in line with ICM and Comres. The Yougov model predicting a hung parliament is likely to be as wrong as their main polling unless there is a surge in youth turnout on Thursday
To repeat - the huge YouGov model weights turnout according to data for 2010 and 2015. In other words, the assumption about youth turnout is that it will be the same as in previous elections.
It obviously doesn't weigh it as well as ICM and Comres and Ashcroft do and its main poll only filters by stated certainty to vote, not actual 2015 turnout demographics
Crikey, how many times do I have to say I'm talking about the huge YouGov model? Not the individual YouGov polls.
So why do you think they are "obviously" not doing their stated weighting correctly?
This supposedly 'brilliant' yougov model which magically chimes in almost exactly with their main poll you mean, ie May possibly losing her majority or seeing it fall? That model? A model which is also completely contradicted by ICM, Comres and Ashcroft's model
Yes, that model (though "brilliant" is your word, not mine).
The thing is that a lot of these polls/projections are contradicting one another. I'm not sure whether sense can be made out of them. But the only hope of doing that is to look objectively at the methodology and try to decide which is a priori preferable. The most dangerous thing is to look at the end results and pick the ones you want to believe.
Re youth vote report in The Times....I knew it. I've seen/heard so many of my demographic saying they'll vote (twitter and real life) and encouraging their friends to....they are all based in Safe London Labour areas like Tottenham, Brent, etc.
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
Some of us have consistently rejected the Lab surge, trust in ICM.
ICM lead down from 22 to 11 though
When is a surge a surge?
There's been a minor party squeeze and some non voters, a little bit more youth. It's definitely been a surge, but I think it's now hit a brick wall and I'm prepared to believe Corbyn cannot get above 37% as there are no voters left to pick up, which in fairness is 7 points better than what I thought a couple of months ago.
I am very sceptical if it was ever really 22-25%. Remember the week before that it was mid to high teens, then there was a massive surge for about a week.
Having lost the 'strong and stable' mantle, I don't think it's a good move to spend the last few days campaigning on the basis of being more willing to use nuclear weapons than the other guy.
The fieldwork for a lot of these polls were before QT, more like Tues, Weds and Thurs.
And during half term. Quite simply the polls are wrong; without the right inducements you can't get the sample right, especially if you only use one medium.
And for those lionising the exit poll; that was also wrong last time. In an absolute sense it was wrong because it didn't get the right result and in a relative sense it was wrong because it underestimated the number of Tory seats by 5% and overestimated the number of LibDem seats by 20%.
If the "Garden Tax" gets the same traction in the last week as the Dementia Tax at Manifesto launch, Labour are going to take a really big hit.... If you don't want to rile the Brits, there are two things you never mess with - a) their car-boot sales b) their gardens.
Having lost the 'strong and stable' mantle, I don't think it's a good move to spend the last few days campaigning on the basis of being more willing to use nuclear weapons than the other guy.
The fieldwork for a lot of these polls were before QT, more like Tues, Weds and Thurs.
And during half term. Quite simply the polls are wrong; without the right inducements you can't get the sample right, especially if you only use one medium.
And for those lionising the exit poll; that was also wrong last time. In an absolute sense it was wrong because it didn't get the right result and in a relative sense it was wrong because it underestimated the number of Tory seats by 5% and overestimated the number of LibDem seats by 20%.
Probably better to look at absolute seat numbers. 20% sounds bad, but that's 2 seats!
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
So why do you think they are "obviously" not doing their stated weighting correctly?
Labour the party of tax breaks for the rich and famous.
McDonnell - LOL.
@ShippersUnbound: Boris Johnson accuses Corbyn of being in charge of "a sleeper cell of crypto-communists that have taken over Labour". See Sunday Times
Debate was Wed 7.30pm but Wed 1pm and Wed 6pm news led on May not turning up.
http://tinyurl.com/yb988ubz
The Moggster has not been given enough air time during the campaign.
When is a surge a surge?
And as I say, those who do proper VAT fiddling you are going to the nick, unlike all those tax efficiency schemes so beloved by the rich and famous.
https://twitter.com/WelshDalaiLama/status/871101238993199104
In your previous thread you asked some questions. The answer to some of them I will have to write up into an article. But one of them I will answer now.
Q: "Do pollsters suffer from bad results"
A: "Yes, but not in the way you think"
From memory, there have been cases where pollsters have stopped polling due to bad results. Angus Reid, a Canadian company, tried to poll 2010 UKGE, did not do well, and have not polled since. RedC? in Ireland got Lisbon I wrong and did not poll Lisbon II, (tho they did poll in later years). Populus famously fucked up 2016 EURef and have voluntarily withdrawn from polling voting intention until they can fix things, which I thought reflected well on them.
They do not suffer much financially. For example, TNS-BRMB have now been taken over by Kantar, which is a bigger company doing consumer research generally. I *think* polling companies are either small companies dominated by wealthy individuals who do polling as a hobby or - less insulting - a legitimate personal belief in the value of polling (cf Ashcroft), or subdivisions of much larger conglomerates. At both extremes, the financial loss is not important but the reputational loss is important.
Pollsters have an emotional attachment to getting their results right, and invest personal pride and reputation in doing so. They are very like academics in that way and there is an overlap: they enjoy each other's company. So don't think they don't try to get it right, and they do suffer when they get it wrong.
But...they don't bleed.
Peter Kellner championed phone polls in the EUref and was wrong. But he did not lose his house. Lord Cooper's firm Populus had Remain with a 10-pt lead and will not die in the gutter. Their loss is reputational but not serious. I sometimes wonder what would happen if somebody put a gun to their head: I assume the results would be...interesting
Magnifico Giganticus
PS I hate Ronaldo as much as I hate the Second Foundation.
Edited for Typos.
The clear difference in tax and spend makes it hard to think that there are so many switchers from Tory to Labour that some pollsters are finding. The parties are just so different this election.
The only place you really notice VAT and how crazy it is, is if you shop at somewhere like CostCo where you see both prices.
The pic of him outside the Tattoo Parlour is absolute gold.
Where as if it is a Tory, time to flash up the embarrassing photo mid answer.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/871107371656990720/photo/1
Why doesn't someone who is allowed write basically the same thread so we can discuss it? I was going to ask @AlastairMeeks to submit it under his name, wish I had now.
I wont ask for any recognition, I want the theory to get the praise
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
For something slightly less crazy, why not watch a rocket launch and land?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URh-oPqjlM8
Just a few minutes until take-off. Hopefully ...
The thing is that a lot of these polls/projections are contradicting one another. I'm not sure whether sense can be made out of them. But the only hope of doing that is to look objectively at the methodology and try to decide which is a priori preferable. The most dangerous thing is to look at the end results and pick the ones you want to believe.
And for those lionising the exit poll; that was also wrong last time. In an absolute sense it was wrong because it didn't get the right result and in a relative sense it was wrong because it underestimated the number of Tory seats by 5% and overestimated the number of LibDem seats by 20%.