We're screwed, my middle-aged sounding boards (educated, middle class, professional women - who went for brexit by a margin of 2-1) delivered their verdict: May is weak, can't be trusted (u-turns) and they were not impressed with the debate dodging. Corbyn seems friendly, is principled, but seems to live in the world we'd all like to live in, instead of the one we actually do. They all voted Con in 2010 & 15, but are splitting: 1 4th party, 1 Lab, 1 LD.
What this may mean is that the Tories are losing ground in safe seats, but gaining significantly in marginals (most likely imo), or that Corbyn really is advancing. Personally my vote is probably going to go 4th party, so that he keeps his deposit.
The McDonnell VAT policy is not a promise, it appears to be an aspiration, funded by future economic growth (which obviously isn't going to happen, other than where it is created by government spending). Marr should be able may him look ridiculous within a couple of questions tomorrow.
as has been said how will you get strong growth to pay for VAT cuts if you are raising corporation tax. that will stifle growth . it's the economics of the madhouse
Speaking as the Honorary Life President of Her Majesty's Guild of Bedwetters, I feel a lot calmer today.
The Tories have a 7-9 point lead, on average. Add on a couple of points (for the reasons cited below) and they are headed for a comfortable and increased majority.
It's difficult to imagine what might happen now that will change this. The Zulu surge has stopped. Silence reigns as the corpses rot. The Tory redoubt is battered, but unbroken. Michael Caine is sweating with relief in the burning bushveld sun, and Lynton "Hooky" Crosby is paring his nails with his blooded bayonet.
Imagine for a second if Messina polling has had Tory 45% throughout and Labour never above 35%. And with no special info, I have just hypothesizing from the campaign that is a logical conclusion.
If that is the result, we are all going to look like right plonkers.
However if they are wrong, oh fuckty fuck....there is going to be blue on blue murder.
The average of tonight's polls isn't far off 45/35. As I posted below, it's 43.7/36.5.
The EMA after the six polls is Con 44.1%, Lab 36.0%. Con maj 40.
Any 'Surge' in youth vote registration has mainly come in Labour safe seats with only a few marginals like Hastings and Rye affected
Always a risk with having a leader in a 'marginal' seat. Hastings and Rye are a little bit bohemian and a little bit 'moved out of London' these days. In the event of a strong Lab leader and a decapitation strategy Rudd might be at risk 5 or 10 years from now.
I think the Labour Party will learn from this campaign that they do not have to be Tory-lite.
agreed and going forwards that might be the most significant thing to come out of the election long term personally my biggest disapointment of the campaign is the Lib dems, i really hoped that they might finally herald a re-alignment of the centre left
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
Just watching BGT, an actually talented winner for once.
Was it another professional?
The American show has been utterly ridiculous. Brit Paul Zerdin won two years ago, who has been a pro for 25+ years and has done Royal Variety performance etc.
The year after (and I kid you not) they had a man thought to be one of the worlds best jugglers and long time Cirque du Soleil performer....you know just you average joe off the street, whose day job just happens to be to work for the world famous circus show known for their amaze-balls stunts and packed full of former Olympians and world leaders in circus skills.
Well I did write a thread saying exactly this... but was told it wasn't really relevant
Why doesn't someone who is allowed write basically the same thread so we can discuss it? I was going to ask @AlastairMeeks to submit it under his name, wish I had now.
I wont ask for any recognition, I want the theory to get the praise
Just watching BGT, an actually talented winner for once.
Was it another professional?
The American show has been utterly ridiculous. Brit Paul Zerdin won two years ago, who has been a pro for 25+ years and has done Royal Variety performance etc.
The year after (and I kid you not) they had a man thought to be one of the worlds best jugglers and long time Cirque du Soleil performer....you know just you average joe off the street, whose day job just happens to be to work for the world famous circus show known for their amaze-balls stunts and packed full of former Olympians and world leaders in circus skills.
I'm not sure, I don't usually watch it, just caught the final because my gf was watching it.
The McDonnell VAT policy is not a promise, it appears to be an aspiration, funded by future economic growth (which obviously isn't going to happen, other than where it is created by government spending). Marr should be able may him look ridiculous within a couple of questions tomorrow.
as has been said how will you get strong growth to pay for VAT cuts if you are raising corporation tax. that will stifle growth . it's the economics of the madhouse
Well you can get strong "fake" growth with a massive borrowing funded public spending binge.
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
From what I understand, the only people with more accurate demographic data of individuals in the US is Facebook. And that is because a) people volunteered huge amounts of that and b) quietly Facebook have spent $100 millions buying every possible piece of data on you they can get their hands on.
I think the Labour Party will learn from this campaign that they do not have to be Tory-lite.
agreed and going forwards that might be the most significant thing to come out of the election long term personally my biggest disapointment of the campaign is the Lib dems, i really hoped that they might finally herald a re-alignment of the centre left
The shame is that putting aside Tiny Tim's issues with gay sinners and going OTT on the old europhilia, lots of the stuff in the manifesto was actually absolutely fine. The sort of stuff sensible lefties can get behind. 1% on tax for NHS and social care, that sounded absolutely sensible to me.
I have to say, if Corbyn wins it won't be all bad. Firstly someone with actual talent will have to become Con party leader, and secondly I will be £50k less in debt over the next three or so years, then I can hop on a plane to Canada/Ireland (I'm a citizen) etc.
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
Of course you are, you always were.
Fat lot of good it will do you. Or anyone else for that matter.
I thought Labour had those fears to begin with {seats with 8,000 majorities not safe etc}.
So did those fears allay somewhat and have now returned or have they increased to the point of expecting defeat ?
Dunno squire. I posted it because Jim Pickard is a journalist with very good contacts. It may well just mean that he's had three skittish Labour MPs on the phone this afternoon.
I think the Labour Party will learn from this campaign that they do not have to be Tory-lite.
agreed and going forwards that might be the most significant thing to come out of the election long term personally my biggest disapointment of the campaign is the Lib dems, i really hoped that they might finally herald a re-alignment of the centre left
The shame is that putting aside Tiny Tim's issues with gay sinners and going OTT on the old europhilia, lots of the stuff in the manifesto was actually absolutely fine. The sort of stuff sensible lefties can get behind. 1% on tax for NHS and social care, that sounded absolutely sensible to me.
What about sensible centrists that just want their orange books back?
I thought Labour had those fears to begin with {seats with 8,000 majorities not safe etc}.
So did those fears allay somewhat and have now returned or have they increased to the point of expecting defeat ?
Dunno squire. I posted it because Jim Pickard is a journalist with very good contacts. It may well just mean that he's had three skittish Labour MPs on the phone this afternoon.
I think the Labour Party will learn from this campaign that they do not have to be Tory-lite.
agreed and going forwards that might be the most significant thing to come out of the election long term personally my biggest disapointment of the campaign is the Lib dems, i really hoped that they might finally herald a re-alignment of the centre left
The shame is that putting aside Tiny Tim's issues with gay sinners and going OTT on the old europhilia, lots of the stuff in the manifesto was actually absolutely fine. The sort of stuff sensible lefties can get behind. 1% on tax for NHS and social care, that sounded absolutely sensible to me.
What about sensible centrists that just want their orange books back?
Unfortunately, as we talked about earlier so many of the genuinely good Lib Dems are no longer MPs and the remaining one or two might lose their seats in a few days.
It is a real shame for the country. I would much prefer a Alexander, Webb, Browne, Laws type opposition keeping Kim Jong May on her toes with actual policies that aren't totally fantasist stuff than Team Twat (that is obviously praying that the they don't win).
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
What (rough) demographics were they sending you after? Lots of c1/c2 +35 plus working women?
I thought Labour had those fears to begin with {seats with 8,000 majorities not safe etc}.
So did those fears allay somewhat and have now returned or have they increased to the point of expecting defeat ?
Dunno squire. I posted it because Jim Pickard is a journalist with very good contacts. It may well just mean that he's had three skittish Labour MPs on the phone this afternoon.
Any reports of skittish Tory MPs?
Wasn't there something on Twatter yesterday about 40 targets being written-off due to the shit campaign?
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
Its interesting that you were in Southampton Test - 5% swing required, significant student population, demographically trending Labour - rather than marginal Conservative Southampton Itchen.
If Southampton Test goes Conservative then it will be a landslide, maybe a big landslide, victory.
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
Is that the same Messina who worked for Remain and Renzi?
1) Not one poll has shown Labour in the lead once the sample is weighted;
2) Not one poll has put the Tories below 40%;
3) Only one poll has put Labour above that figure.
If those remain true, Labour are still on course for defeat.
Also:
1) The majority (almost all) polls show the Tories in the mid-40s, and this has never wavered;
2) Almost all polls put Labour in the 30s, mostly the mid-to-low thirties, and their vote is volatile because it varies according to turnout filters;
3) Although Labour have improved their share, this is hardly surprising given that they were going through a very bad time just before the election and Corbyn was once again looking shaky. Calling the election has put questions over his leadership to bed for the duration and rallied the party behind him. No wonder things look better. This has also killed off talk from people (including me) who had begun to think another two years of the Jezziah would be the end of Labour.
4) Almost all Labour's gains seem to be non-voters (spot the problem) or from minor parties. There is no direct switching to them from the Tories, which there has to be for them to do well.
Adding all these together I think a Tory landslide is still the likeliest outcome. I'm hoping it doesn't happen because Labour being cut in half would make it much easier for another far-left loon to win the leadership when Corbyn resigns and I want a proper opposition. But it could be May wins by a wider margin in the vote than Blair did on this polling, although possibly not by such a wide margin of seats.
Remember, if Corbyn does achieve 35% he will have done better than any other Labour leader elected in the last 40 years - bar one. And this despite being the weakest, most corrupt, stupidest and most dishonest of them all. I can't see it.
I think the Labour Party will learn from this campaign that they do not have to be Tory-lite.
agreed and going forwards that might be the most significant thing to come out of the election long term personally my biggest disapointment of the campaign is the Lib dems, i really hoped that they might finally herald a re-alignment of the centre left
The shame is that putting aside Tiny Tim's issues with gay sinners and going OTT on the old europhilia, lots of the stuff in the manifesto was actually absolutely fine. The sort of stuff sensible lefties can get behind. 1% on tax for NHS and social care, that sounded absolutely sensible to me.
What about sensible centrists that just want their orange books back?
Unfortunately, as we talked about earlier so many of the genuinely good Lib Dems are no longer MPs and the remaining one or two might lose their seats in a few days.
It is a real shame for the country. I would much prefer a Alexander, Webb, Browne, Laws type opposition keeping Kim Jong May on her toes with actual policies that aren't totally fantasist stuff than Team Twat (that is obviously praying that the they don't win).
Screw that, I'd much rather have them in Government!
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I spent 6 hours knocking on doors in Southampton Test today using Messina's data.
It is bloody accurate.
Is that the same Messina who worked for Remain and Renzi?
As dependable as Big Ben....possible bad news for the Tories, Faisal is on it.
You just know that Faisal is going to be the Liberal answer to Paul Mason in a few years. He makes some of the Tabloid journos seem positively bipartisan.
As dependable as Big Ben....possible bad news for the Tories, Faisal is on it.
You just know that Faisal is going to be the Liberal answer to Paul Mason in a few years. He makes some of the Tabloid journos seem positively bipartisan.
Brexit has completely fried any sort of impartiality chip.
As dependable as Big Ben....possible bad news for the Tories, Faisal is on it.
You just know that Faisal is going to be the Liberal answer to Paul Mason in a few years. He makes some of the Tabloid journos seem positively bipartisan.
Brexit has completely fried any sort of impartiality chip.
Always surprised me that Sky News are still happy with him in the same way the Telegraph are happy with Michael Deacon. Not to say it's a bad thing they have their own views, just clearly they're a bit out of step with their viewers and readers.
1) Not one poll has shown Labour in the lead once the sample is weighted;
2) Not one poll has put the Tories below 40%;
3) Only one poll has put Labour above that figure.
If those remain true, Labour are still on course for defeat.
Also:
1) The majority (almost all) polls show the Tories in the mid-40s, and this has never wavered;
2) Almost all polls put Labour in the 30s, mostly the mid-to-low thirties, and their vote is volatile because it varies according to turnout filters;
3) Although Labour have improved their share, this is hardly surprising given that they were going through a very bad time just before the election and Corbyn was once again looking shaky. Calling the election has put questions over his leadership to bed for the duration and rallied the party behind him. No wonder things look better. This has also killed off talk from people (including me) who had begun to think another two years of the Jezziah would be the end of Labour.
4) Almost all Labour's gains seem to be non-voters (spot the problem) or from minor parties. There is no direct switching to them from the Tories, which there has to be for them to do well.
This is a great summary. We're all talking about the polls where Corbyn doesn't get buried in a hole because of the man bites dog angle. But he's losing badly.
@ShippersUnbound: In Sunday Times interview Boris Johnson accuses Corbyn of a "triple tax whammy" that will cost families £5,000 a year
@ShippersUnbound: Boris Johnson accuses Corbyn of being in charge of "a sleeper cell of crypto-communists that have taken over Labour". See Sunday Times
Note the far higher profile Boris Johnson has now compared to other cabinet ministers.
Remember, if Corbyn does achieve 35% he will have done better than any other Labour leader elected in the last 40 years - bar one. And this despite being the weakest, most corrupt, stupidest and most dishonest of them all.
What is your basis for calling Jeremy Corbyn "corrupt"?
Anyone a bit worried about the security of polling stations next Thursday?
Not really, there's a relatively low density of people in most polling stations. Sporting events (such as the CL final) and music festivals are still the best targets for the thinking man's terrorists.
Comments
What this may mean is that the Tories are losing ground in safe seats, but gaining significantly in marginals (most likely imo), or that Corbyn really is advancing. Personally my vote is probably going to go 4th party, so that he keeps his deposit.
and going forwards that might be the most significant thing to come out of the election long term
personally my biggest disapointment of the campaign is the Lib dems, i really hoped that they might finally herald a re-alignment of the centre left
It is bloody accurate.
I am no longer prone to the occasional bedwetting.
We are going to win.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/871109864042450944
The American show has been utterly ridiculous. Brit Paul Zerdin won two years ago, who has been a pro for 25+ years and has done Royal Variety performance etc.
The year after (and I kid you not) they had a man thought to be one of the worlds best jugglers and long time Cirque du Soleil performer....you know just you average joe off the street, whose day job just happens to be to work for the world famous circus show known for their amaze-balls stunts and packed full of former Olympians and world leaders in circus skills.
London
Cons 38%
Labour 46%
LD 10%
Midlands
Cons 52%
Labour 40%
North
Cons 36%
Labour 49%
South
Cons 42%
Labour 35%
Wales
Cons 49%
Labour 32%
Scotland
Cons 21%
Labour 28%
SNP 44%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Final-MoS-Post-BBC-Event-Poll-020617SWCH-1c0d4h9.pdf
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
Ask the House Tory David Herdson. He's tolerated because of his pro-Av views.
@Ealasaid_MacD: Doorsteps indicating Na h-Eileanan an Iar could be one to watch on 8 June #forthemany #ge17
So did those fears allay somewhat and have now returned or have they increased to the point of expecting defeat ?
Rob - you need to amend ICM date to 2 June - this will move it into the later average field.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017_sunonsunday_poll4_final.pdf
Con Landslide ....
Scotland
Cons 29%
Labour 23%
SNP 41%
Wales
Cons 38%
Labour 35%
North
Cons 36%
Labour 41%
Midlands
Cons 49%
Labour 32%
South
Cons 49%
Labour 31%
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017_sunonsunday_poll4_final.pdf
Fat lot of good it will do you. Or anyone else for that matter.
Magnifico Giganticus
Armed police on the scene
It is a real shame for the country. I would much prefer a Alexander, Webb, Browne, Laws type opposition keeping Kim Jong May on her toes with actual policies that aren't totally fantasist stuff than Team Twat (that is obviously praying that the they don't win).
If Southampton Test goes Conservative then it will be a landslide, maybe a big landslide, victory.
1) Not one poll has shown Labour in the lead once the sample is weighted;
2) Not one poll has put the Tories below 40%;
3) Only one poll has put Labour above that figure.
If those remain true, Labour are still on course for defeat.
Also:
1) The majority (almost all) polls show the Tories in the mid-40s, and this has never wavered;
2) Almost all polls put Labour in the 30s, mostly the mid-to-low thirties, and their vote is volatile because it varies according to turnout filters;
3) Although Labour have improved their share, this is hardly surprising given that they were going through a very bad time just before the election and Corbyn was once again looking shaky. Calling the election has put questions over his leadership to bed for the duration and rallied the party behind him. No wonder things look better. This has also killed off talk from people (including me) who had begun to think another two years of the Jezziah would be the end of Labour.
4) Almost all Labour's gains seem to be non-voters (spot the problem) or from minor parties. There is no direct switching to them from the Tories, which there has to be for them to do well.
Adding all these together I think a Tory landslide is still the likeliest outcome. I'm hoping it doesn't happen because Labour being cut in half would make it much easier for another far-left loon to win the leadership when Corbyn resigns and I want a proper opposition. But it could be May wins by a wider margin in the vote than Blair did on this polling, although possibly not by such a wide margin of seats.
Remember, if Corbyn does achieve 35% he will have done better than any other Labour leader elected in the last 40 years - bar one. And this despite being the weakest, most corrupt, stupidest and most dishonest of them all. I can't see it.
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BREAKING: Car ploughs into '15-20' people on London Bridge
Particularly Hammond.
https://twitter.com/benleo89/status/871116284561420288