politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament
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BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT ****chloe said:Evening all. I see some are still thinking May will scrape through a majority.
I'm struggling to understand. True May has been dreadful and the manifesto was badly received. The polling movement can't all be due to this though. The social care policy was badly communicated but as I think I said before I actually support the principle housing assets are going to have to be used in this way in the future if we want fairness within the generations. I also don't understand Corbyn's appeal. He is still the same disagreeable character whose MPs didn't want.. His manifesto has lots of goodies but surely people realise that they have to be paid for some way down the line. And hasn't nationalisation and it's like had its day? Why would people vote for this now when they declined it when it was offered the first time round? Then again I didn't understand the appeal of Brexit.
I will be voting Conservative but sadly I expect to see a Labour government this time next week.0 -
Tom PeckVerified account @tompeck May 30LadyBucket said:The BBC Leader's Special up against Britain's Got Talent ...
One's a show where deluded narcissists compete for a chance to meet the queen. The other's....0 -
Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.0
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Just said the same to my wife. Why at Universities in Cambridge and YorkLadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
There are many conference centres in the north that would be neutral
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York is the only red dot in a sea of blue that is North Yorkshire .BBC look North said they picked the audience from all of Yorkshire.LadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
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We do seem to be going back to a two party system. Is this a permanent thing or can the others get back in the game?AndyJS said:
Tories heading for their highest share for 47 years and yet their campaign is apparently crap. Makes sense.Ave_it said:Surprised by the mori poll.
LAB haven't got 40% since 2001!
CON haven't got 45% since... 1970 ☺0 -
Across the two York seats the Con/Lab vote is pretty even. Not Cambridge at all. And even Cambridge is surrounded by villages only a few minutes away that are heavily Tory.LadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
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I doubt the audience is stuffed with students. The BBC do try and reach a fair balance in the audience.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just said the same to my wife. Why at Universities in Cambridge and YorkLadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
There are many conference centres in the north that would be neutral0 -
Corbyn listens why do you think Trident replacement is in manifestoTorby_Fennel said:
Yes, neither of them will do the country any good. My own opinion on why I am more worried about Corbyn than May comes down to this:The_Apocalypse said:
This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.bobajobPB said:I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
May changes her mind too often in response to events. Corbyn seemingly never changes his mind at all no matter what happens or what the consequences are. Nothing in politics scares me quite as much a politician who thinks he is never wrong.0 -
Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the same journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."0 -
Lol Corbyn wouldn't implement it at all well.The_Apocalypse said:Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
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Danny565 said:
Tom PeckVerified account @tompeck May 30LadyBucket said:The BBC Leader's Special up against Britain's Got Talent ...
One's a show where deluded narcissists compete for a chance to meet the queen. The other's....
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Yes all due respect to Mike Smithson.TheScreamingEagles said:
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.ThreeQuidder said:
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.ThreeQuidder said:Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.0 -
Indeed. Behavioural moral issues between consenting adults are a matter for them alone, that's clearly a liberal policy. Farron could have cleared this up months ago with a clearly thought through answer.RobD said:
Yeah, isn't that the definition of liberalism?Sandpit said:FrancisUrquhart said:What's the best hedge against a Corbyn government...Dollars or Euros?
He'd have been better off just saying it straight (sic).rcs1000 said:
Of course he thinks homosexuality is a sin. He's a fuck*ing evangelical. I'm sure he thinks sodomy is a sin too.Chris said:I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
"I have my own Christian beliefs but I think that everyone should be free to act as they wish without interference from the state" or similar words.
I'd disagree with that stance on moral issues that affect others (abortion / euthanasia / death penalty etc) but that isn't what he was asked about.0 -
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*snigger*RobD said:
I doubt the audience is stuffed with students. The BBC do try and reach a fair balance in the audience.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just said the same to my wife. Why at Universities in Cambridge and YorkLadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
There are many conference centres in the north that would be neutral0 -
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.brokenwheel said:Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."0 -
Here's an arch-neoliberal's guide to the LVT that you might find interesting. Points out the garden thing.The_Apocalypse said:Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
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Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Argyll & Bute.Pulpstar said:
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.Pong said:
There are LD/SNP marginals?MikeSmithson said:
Loads.
And I don't believe O&S will be in the slightest bit marginal. I would be staggered if the SNP got even half the LD vote.0 -
Will they still be at uni to vote though?Pulpstar said:
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.brokenwheel said:Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
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Did he say that? The correct response is, what I think about gay sex is none of your business and what you think or do is none of mine.Ishmael_Z said:
It's a tricky one. If he just said "Being gay is wrong" he'd be toast, but saying "Being gay is wrong, I know this from my invisible friend Big Nobodaddy" seems to be more, rather than even less, acceptable.FF43 said:
The liberal stance is that it is no-one's business but his own. A nicety I suppose.Chris said:I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?0 -
They'd better bloody vote for Corbyn there now I'm on for £25 at 10-1.RobD said:
Will they still be at uni to vote though?Pulpstar said:
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.brokenwheel said:Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."0 -
He was equally wriggly about abortion on r4 this morning.Sandpit said:
Indeed. Behavioural moral issues between consenting adults are a matter for them alone, that's clearly a liberal policy. Farron could have cleared this up months ago with a clearly thought through answer.RobD said:
Yeah, isn't that the definition of liberalism?Sandpit said:FrancisUrquhart said:What's the best hedge against a Corbyn government...Dollars or Euros?
He'd have been better off just saying it straight (sic).rcs1000 said:
Of course he thinks homosexuality is a sin. He's a fuck*ing evangelical. I'm sure he thinks sodomy is a sin too.Chris said:I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
"I have my own Christian beliefs but I think that everyone should be free to act as they wish without interference from the state" or similar words.
I'd disagree with that stance on moral issues that affect others (abortion / euthanasia / death penalty etc) but that isn't what he was asked about.0 -
Tonight's audience is 75 Labour and 75 Conservative. So can we avoid all of the biased audience wibble?0
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Poor Lib dems.SandyRentool said:Tonight's audience is 75 Labour and 75 Conservative. So can we avoid all of the biased audience wibble?
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A combination of the two I'd say - a lot of very good people are put off from going into politics by the environment in which they now have to operate.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would suggest we treat them like shit because they show they deserve it.Sandpit said:
A cynic might say that when we treat our politicians like shit, we end up with shit politicians.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.another_richard said:
What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.Richard_Tyndall said:
Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.bobajobPB said:I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.0 -
It makes no sense the polls the way they are.Floater said:0 -
Amazed that Tim F. allows publicity for libdems that promotes sinful gambling. Can't sit easily with his values.0
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Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).Pulpstar said:
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.Pong said:
There are LD/SNP marginals?MikeSmithson said:
Loads.
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.0 -
I hope you're marching those young impressionable reds down to the polling booth in Headingley.SandyRentool said:Tonight's audience is 75 Labour and 75 Conservative. So can we avoid all of the biased audience wibble?
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You will be jumping around the room with delight like my Father did when Thatcher was elected in 1979.JackW said:
Prepare to be delighted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not really - just seems a likely case to me and I am stating an honest opinion. I would be delighted to be wrongJackW said:
BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT ****Big_G_NorthWales said:I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
Your Name Vill Also Go On Zer List .. Vot Is It ?0 -
According to whom, exactly? Are they all party members?SandyRentool said:Tonight's audience is 75 Labour and 75 Conservative. So can we avoid all of the biased audience wibble?
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I voted in my first general election in York as a student in 1997!Pulpstar said:
They'd better bloody vote for Corbyn there now I'm on for £25 at 10-1.RobD said:
Will they still be at uni to vote though?Pulpstar said:
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.brokenwheel said:Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."0 -
Of course it's his electors' business if it influences how he votes in parliament.FF43 said:
Did he say that? The correct response is, what I think about gay sex is none of your business and what you think or do is none of mine.Ishmael_Z said:
It's a tricky one. If he just said "Being gay is wrong" he'd be toast, but saying "Being gay is wrong, I know this from my invisible friend Big Nobodaddy" seems to be more, rather than even less, acceptable.FF43 said:
The liberal stance is that it is no-one's business but his own. A nicety I suppose.Chris said:I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?0 -
Next stint as guest editor starts end of this month.RobD said:
So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....TheScreamingEagles said:
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.ThreeQuidder said:
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.ThreeQuidder said:Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
I'll try and publish it during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.0 -
You are Deep Thought and I claim my £5.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Who?RobD said:
Poor Lib dems.SandyRentool said:Tonight's audience is 75 Labour and 75 Conservative. So can we avoid all of the biased audience wibble?
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***** BETTING POST *****
There appears to be a decent betting opportunity at present with sportingbet by taking their Tories to win fewer than 370.5 seats, equivalent to an overall majority of 90, at odds of 17/20 or 1.85.
This compares with other bookies, for example Betfair Sportsbook, whose corresponding offer is for the Tories to win fewer than 357.5 seats, equivalent to a significantly lower overall majority of 64, at slightly inferior odds of 5/6 or 1.833.
This surely can't last, but DYOR.0 -
Inverness Nairn will forever be Lib Dem no matter what Farron decides on Brexit or not. It is just the SNP got more, but the core Lib Dem vote there is around 18000 I think.Danny565 said:
Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).Pulpstar said:
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.Pong said:
There are LD/SNP marginals?MikeSmithson said:
Loads.
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.0 -
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Agree re Inverness and R&S.Danny565 said:
Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).Pulpstar said:
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.Pong said:
There are LD/SNP marginals?MikeSmithson said:
Loads.
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.
alternatively, CS&ER is also a reasonable shot for them0 -
Do you mean the Eve before this fine dance spectacle?RobD said:
Ed Balls Eve was better.GIN1138 said:Evening sexy people,
Everyone having a good Mega Polling Saturday Eve I hope?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czqtjk_iGFU&t=2s0 -
Anyone noticed that YouGov's model has Tim Farron in a dogfight in Westmorland and Lonsdale - 40% Con, 40% LD?
Perhaps YouGov is right after all
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Did the source for that claim make an equivalent claim for the Leaders debate audience? If yes, what was it?SandyRentool said:Tonight's audience is 75 Labour and 75 Conservative. So can we avoid all of the biased audience wibble?
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That's a much more nuanced issue than homosexuality IMO, but possibly deserving of an even more straight answer. "Christian opposed to abortion" isn't really headline news.Ishmael_Z said:
He was equally wriggly about abortion on r4 this morning.Sandpit said:
Indeed. Behavioural moral issues between consenting adults are a matter for them alone, that's clearly a liberal policy. Farron could have cleared this up months ago with a clearly thought through answer.RobD said:
Yeah, isn't that the definition of liberalism?Sandpit said:FrancisUrquhart said:What's the best hedge against a Corbyn government...Dollars or Euros?
He'd have been better off just saying it straight (sic).rcs1000 said:
Of course he thinks homosexuality is a sin. He's a fuck*ing evangelical. I'm sure he thinks sodomy is a sin too.Chris said:I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
"I have my own Christian beliefs but I think that everyone should be free to act as they wish without interference from the state" or similar words.
I'd disagree with that stance on moral issues that affect others (abortion / euthanasia / death penalty etc) but that isn't what he was asked about.0 -
It has Mike's signature on it.ThreeQuidder said:
I mean, are they genuinely from him? Or is someone putting them out in his name?Barnesian said:
I've seen one this evening when I was out canvassing. Headed PoliticalBetting.com, they are genuineThreeQuidder said:Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
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Oooh, that's a way to make that seat actually interesting.rcs1000 said:
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Argyll & Bute.Pulpstar said:
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.Pong said:
There are LD/SNP marginals?MikeSmithson said:
Loads.
And I don't believe O&S will be in the slightest bit marginal. I would be staggered if the SNP got even half the LD vote.0 -
I don't have any confidence in the BBC any more. Last night on Springwatch they showed what looked like a Whitethroat feeding young on the nest and called it a Chiffchaff. If anyone wants to check it is about 49.40 minutes in.0
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Plymouth University end of term = today! Of course they may have bothered to get postal votes.Pulpstar said:
They'd better bloody vote for Corbyn there now I'm on for £25 at 10-1.RobD said:
Will they still be at uni to vote though?Pulpstar said:
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.brokenwheel said:Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
Leeds University, on the other hand, is still in-term for another fortnight.....0 -
We need an AV thread to calm down SeanT.TheScreamingEagles said:
Next stint as guest editor starts end of this month.RobD said:
So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....TheScreamingEagles said:
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.ThreeQuidder said:
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.ThreeQuidder said:Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
I'll try and publish during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.0 -
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverness_and_Nairn_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)Pulpstar said:
Inverness Nairn will forever be Lib Dem no matter what Farron decides on Brexit or not. It is just the SNP got more, but the core Lib Dem vote there is around 18000 I think.Danny565 said:
Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).Pulpstar said:
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.Pong said:
There are LD/SNP marginals?MikeSmithson said:
Loads.
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.
Ah hem.0 -
Miss A
I have come to view that Corbyn is less risky than May. He has some extravagant spending pledges but compared to May and her clowns trying to deliver Brexit? Reckon Corbyn's probably better for the economy!!0 -
Sadly also good news for Cat Smith in there too (tables of the figures have now been added to the article). Copeland is interesting too, Labour supporters registering to try and take it back?Pulpstar said:
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.brokenwheel said:Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."0 -
I cannot see how this can anything other than a disaster for May and have pulled out of all my pro tory bets with a view to jumping back in Monday/Tuesday
We can expect the usual balanced BBC audience and they have a wealth of open goals
- Trump and Climate change
- CPS charges
- Swerving the debate
- The mythical dementia tax
and so on
You can bet she won't get a single friendly question and she isn't adept at seamlessly getting the subject on to something she wants to talk about
And then Corbyn follows to dissect everything she has said whilst being fed softball questions
This is going to be very uncomfortable viewing and I'm sure will move the markets if not the actual votes0 -
The issue is that the value of someone's land isn't related at all to someone's income or wealth.The_Apocalypse said:Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
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Very wise!FrancisUrquhart said:Right, I'm not watching the May-bot and the terrorist sympathizer go on QT. Too depressing. I'm taking the poster sometimes known as Bobajob or whatever his handle is this week advice...to the pub (and one without a tv!!!!).
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CPS charges surely won't be discussed because of sub judice.Schards said:I cannot see how this can anything other than a disaster for May and have pulled out of all my pro tory bets with a view to jumping back in Monday/Tuesday
We can expect the usual balanced BBC audience and they have a wealth of open goals
- Trump and Climate change
- CPS charges
- Swerving the debate
- The mythical dementia tax
and so on
You can bet she won't get a single friendly question and she isn't adept at seamlessly getting the subject on to something she wants to talk about
And then Corbyn follows to dissect everything she has said whilst being fed softball questions
This is going to be very uncomfortable viewing and I'm sure will move the markets if not the actual votes0 -
They are saying that Corbyn is on his way to win.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Because CCHQ doesn't want to draw attention to what the IFS said about its own manifesto?Nemtynakht said:
I just don't get why CCHQ hasn't pulled apart the so-called costings. It's not like they have been up to much else. At the moment the Tories have put up an unpopular manifesto which is basically a managerial document for Government which doesn't need costing as it fits within current spending and is unpopular because of it. They need to pull apart the airy fairy Labour wish list because people should know it cannot be delivered, yet paid for by "the top 5%".FrancisUrquhart said:
It is interesting...Cameron and Miliband were hammered for basically not understanding the world because never had a proper job.Nemtynakht said:
The problem with Corbyn is that he doesn't understand how real life works. If you raise taxes it changes people's behaviour and as per my example earlier with private schools, suddenly your move to get 1.6bn in tax suddenly costs you moneyPulpstar said:
I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.The_Apocalypse said:
This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.bobajobPB said:I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Now Corbyn comes along, "man of the people", who has never had a proper job and he absolutely thick as two short planks, which Dave and Ed certainly aren't.
https://www.ft.com/content/3bc751dc-41ef-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b20 -
I'd say Cat Smith has a good chance of holding her seat; I tipped it earlier in the week and got on at 6's. When I last looked it was at 4/1.brokenwheel said:
Sadly also good news for Cat Smith in there too (tables of the figures have now been added to the article). Copeland is interesting too, Labour supporters registering to try and take it back?Pulpstar said:
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.brokenwheel said:Further to the voter registration thing, here's a new article from the journalist:
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."0 -
Well from that Cambridge audience, the roads to those surrounding villages must have been heavily mined....IanB2 said:
Across the two York seats the Con/Lab vote is pretty even. Not Cambridge at all. And even Cambridge is surrounded by villages only a few minutes away that are heavily Tory.LadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
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Buckle up.0
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No excuses, that audience should be balanced with both of them facing a hard time.0
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Thanks for that link. Interesting that they don't think it'll ever happen - it's in the LD and Green manifestos too, so at some point it looks at though something like it will be implemented.MyBurningEars said:
Here's an arch-neoliberal's guide to the LVT that you might find interesting. Points out the garden thing.The_Apocalypse said:Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
@Pulpstar I'm trying to think positive, given what *could* happen on June 8th.0 -
I thought Corbyn was personally in favour of and in fact took Labour through the HoC A50 division to vote in favour of Brexit.bobajobPB said:Miss A
I have come to view that Corbyn is less risky than May. He has some extravagant spending pledges but compared to May and her clowns trying to deliver Brexit? Reckon Corbyn's probably better for the economy!!0 -
No they aren't. On the current polling the Tories would get a modest majority. There is absolutely no polling that shows Corbyn getting anywhere near a majority.chloe said:
They are saying that Corbyn is on his way to win.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Erm, no they aren't.chloe said:
They are saying that Corbyn is on his way to win.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
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Brilliantly played.MikeSmithson said:
I don't suppose we'll ever be able to prove either way, but I have a suspicion these letters will be more effective in terms of tipping the balance in a few key marginal seats than the saturation-bombing of Facebook video attack ads has been. Certainly more effective on a cost-per-vote basis.
It's very easy to scroll away from a paid ad in your Facebook feed, but when someone actually sends you a personal letter in this day and age it's quite hard to ignore.0 -
In the final week the SCon vote recedes badly, they easily take BRS but the remaining Lab vote in DCT tactically votes Mundell out. Labour take East Lothian and hold Ed South while the Lib Dems sweep their target seats leaving it 1.SNP, 2. LD, 3.Lab, 4.Con in Scotland.
Financially ruinous, completely hilarious.0 -
NeilVW said:
Anyone noticed that YouGov's model has Tim Farron in a dogfight in Westmorland and Lonsdale - 40% Con, 40% LD?
Perhaps YouGov is right after all
Tim has had a woeful campaign. Even his local supporters must be wincing.
It used to be heavily Tory - in 1992 Michale Jopling had a 16,500 majority. If the old two party politics really is asserting itself, then.....0 -
You would vote for a donkey if it had a red rosette :-)bobajobPB said:Miss A
I have come to view that Corbyn is less risky than May. He has some extravagant spending pledges but compared to May and her clowns trying to deliver Brexit? Reckon Corbyn's probably better for the economy!!
oh, you are.0 -
Nowt worse than a Yorkshire ToryYorkcity said:
York is the only red dot in a sea of blue that is North Yorkshire .BBC look North said they picked the audience from all of Yorkshire.LadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
Good job we don't have any on here0 -
Absolutely .... except in the service of Auchentennach Fine Pies ....foxinsoxuk said:0 -
Because both the Tories and the BBC have been taken over by pinkos - the kind of people who went to down the road schools and think it's acceptable not to stand still for a monarchist song at the end of a cultural event.LadyBucket said:Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
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Here goes I hope she answers the questions.0
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I assume the Lib Dems will be declaring these as local spend?kyf_100 said:
Brilliantly played.MikeSmithson said:
I don't suppose we'll ever be able to prove either way, but I have a suspicion these letters will be more effective in terms of tipping the balance in a few key marginal seats than the saturation-bombing of Facebook video attack ads has been. Certainly more effective on a cost-per-vote basis.
It's very easy to scroll away from a paid ad in your Facebook feed, but when someone actually sends you a personal letter in this day and age it's quite hard to ignore.0 -
nice easy opener, then0
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Has there been any polling that shows Corbyn getting a shot at forming a Govt.?Richard_Tyndall said:
No they aren't. On the current polling the Tories would get a modest majority. There is absolutely no polling that shows Corbyn getting anywhere near a majority.chloe said:
They are saying that Corbyn is on his way to win.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
QT audience - 1/3 "intending to vote", Con, 1/3 Lab and 1/3 others or undecided.
First question - ouch.0 -
Dimble contradicts what I said about the audience. I got the info from Look North - fake news organisation!0
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The usual nonsense of YG 'importing' people of similar demographics from surrounding seats, which (the last time I looked) had Kensington as marginal Tory.MarqueeMark said:NeilVW said:Anyone noticed that YouGov's model has Tim Farron in a dogfight in Westmorland and Lonsdale - 40% Con, 40% LD?
Perhaps YouGov is right after all
Tim has had a woeful campaign. Even his local supporters must be wincing.
It used to be heavily Tory - in 1992 Michale Jopling had a 16,500 majority. If the old two party politics really is asserting itself, then.....
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How many does May need to stay in power? Take out SF = 646 seats. Half = 323. Take away the Unionists = 313.TheScreamingEagles said:
Next stint as guest editor starts end of this month.RobD said:
So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....TheScreamingEagles said:
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.ThreeQuidder said:
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.ThreeQuidder said:Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
I'll try and publish during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.
Try getting the Tories down to 313 on Baxter - Labour need to be well over 40% to achieve it, and now that 20% of the votes are already posted it ain't going to happen. Time for the PB Tories to be thankful for small mercies.0 -
Decent answer.0
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Good, punchy first answer from May.0
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She really is the Gordon Brown of the Conservatives.
The more people see her the less they like her.0 -
Answer one: "let me be clear....."0
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Mays first answer good follow up quite good too
Strong Start0 -
She needs 365 as a minimum according to Tory MPsDadge said:
How many does May need to stay in power? Take out SF = 646 seats. Half = 323. Take away the Unionists = 313.TheScreamingEagles said:
Next stint as guest editor starts end of this month.RobD said:
So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....TheScreamingEagles said:
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.ThreeQuidder said:
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.ThreeQuidder said:Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
I'll try and publish during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.
Try getting the Tories down to 313 on Baxter - Labour need to be well over 40% to achieve it, and now that 20% of the votes are already posted it ain't going to happen. Time for the PB Tories to be thankful for small mercies.0 -
If the information about trends of votes already cast has been sent up the line, and it continues to match expectations, I'm still calling a majority of 70+.HYUFD said:Had an interesting evening of phoning at CCHQ, Lynton Crosby was coming out just as I was going in and had a brief chat with Andrea Leadsom who was sat just behind me then passed Michael Gove on the way out. In terms of results on a head to head choice between May and Corbyn May is still clearly ahead though did get 1 Labour to Tory switcher but in her own words 'this is a personal vote for Wes Streeting not that idiot leading the Labour Party!'
What is diffferent though is that new voters won't be using postal votes so the results might fall short of what might be the trend expectations.
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First comment from my politically unaware 16 year old son - what's wrong with her hair?0
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Impressive start by May, bit of fire in her belly.0
