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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament

There have been 588 local by-elections during this Parliament in which a total of 1,029,887 votes have been cast. These are not virtual votes cast in opinion polls, or online, but physical votes in physical ballot boxes up and down the country. Overall these votes (and seat wins) have split as follows:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited June 2017
    First. Like who knows?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Hmm
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Second :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    RobD said:

    Second :)

    Ah bugger.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Somewhat optimistic for UKIP.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Fisher apparently predicting a Con maj.

    How reliable is he? I know a lot of these ecpets got it wrong last time round....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    edited June 2017
    FPT...
    leomckinstry said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Didnt 2015 QT help turn it Daves way?

    The Tory private polling (which was accurate) showed no real change throughout the campaign. None of the much publicized gaffes such as the Ed Stone changed much at all.

    The Daily YouGov's scared them and that caused Cameron to go balls to the wall for the last 2 weeks.
    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?
    In the past it hasn't. But 2015 Messina and his team claim to have had much more accurate polling. Labour on the other hand, claim to have had some signs, but not really until the very end (and they didn't tell Ed).

    Messina is supposed to have huge databases where he has 100s of parameters on masses of target swings voters. Literally how often you go for a shit type stuff. YouGov have similar stuff, but it has been shown to be horrendously flawed and is self selecting. Dave Gorman did a special on it and it was hilarious the kind of crap they had, Marxists love Ant, Fascists love Dec, but nobody can tell which is which.

    Messina isn't looking at the population as a whole, he is looking at only target voters that could swing the election.

    It will be fascinating to hear what was happening in the bunker this time around. Are they seeing the same kind of Corbgasm or not. If they aren't, will they turn out to be right, etc etc etc.

    -------

    Interestingly Facebook apparently have the most complete data in the world on people. Not only from what you serve them via their site, but they buy up huge amounts of personal data from around the world and then match it all up.

    If you want to buy ads on Facebook you can literally say I want left handed half Asian 25 year olds living in Bognor to see this. Or if you have a list of target names, they will offer you the service of all of those plus all those that match that profile.

    Facebook are ahead of Google in this stuff. They know more about you than you probably do.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Michael Gove.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    May up first tonight - BBC News
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Fisher apparently predicting a Con maj.

    How reliable is he? I know a lot of these ecpets got it wrong last time round....

    Dunno, all the models point to Con Maj. I wouldn't go piling on though personally.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Great to see these Harry, fantastic effort as always.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Todays PB has been brought to you by the numbers 45, 40, 7 & 2, and by the letters G.U.E.S.S.W.O.R.K

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKBzmHcl-Cs

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited June 2017
    FPT
    leomckinstry said:

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?

    I kinda know this.

    The public polls you see are very neutral, free from bias, and usually ask VI first.

    Whereas private polls the Tories used last time asked VI after the supplementary questions, so after you'd said you preferred Cameron as PM, trusted Dave and George on the economy over the two Eds you'd be more likely to admit on planning on voting Tory.

    Whereas it's the other way round with public polls

    The Tory private polls also used their attack lines in their polls, which whilst not push polling it turned out to be more accurate.

    For example the IFS say Ed Miliband's policies would add x billions to the deficit, whereas the Tories have reduced the deficit, who do you think is best suited to run the economy.

    The Crosby/Textor final poll of 2015 had the Tories on 329 versus the 330 that they got
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Pulpstar said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Fisher apparently predicting a Con maj.

    How reliable is he? I know a lot of these ecpets got it wrong last time round....

    Dunno, all the models point to Con Maj. I wouldn't go piling on though personally.
    What does your betting strategy look like now? Mine's turned on its head and I'm drowning if Yougov are right.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    leomckinstry said:

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?

    I kinda know this.

    The public polls you see are very neutral, free from bias, and usually ask VI first.

    Whereas private polls the Tories used last time asked VI after the supplementary questions, so after you'd said you preferred Cameron as PM, trusted Dave and George on the economy over the two Eds you'd be more likely to admit on planning on voting Tory.

    Whereas it's the other way round with public polls

    The Tory private polls also used their attack lines in their polls, which whilst not push polling it turned out to be more accurate.

    For example the IFS say Ed Miliband's policies would add x billions to the deficit, whereas the Tories have reduced the deficit, who do you think is best suited to run the economy.

    The Crosby/Textor final poll of 2015 had the Tories on 329 versus the 330 that they got
    May isn't running on the economy this time though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited June 2017
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    leomckinstry said:

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?

    I kinda know this.

    The public polls you see are very neutral, free from bias, and usually ask VI first.

    Whereas private polls the Tories used last time asked VI after the supplementary questions, so after you'd said you preferred Cameron as PM, trusted Dave and George on the economy over the two Eds you'd be more likely to admit on planning on voting Tory.

    Whereas it's the other way round with public polls

    The Tory private polls also used their attack lines in their polls, which whilst not push polling it turned out to be more accurate.

    For example the IFS say Ed Miliband's policies would add x billions to the deficit, whereas the Tories have reduced the deficit, who do you think is best suited to run the economy.

    The Crosby/Textor final poll of 2015 had the Tories on 329 versus the 330 that they got
    May isn't running on the economy this time though.
    I'm sure they'll be asking questions on what she is running on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    JackW said:

    May up first tonight - BBC News

    She's already relegating herself to being the warm-up act.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    edited June 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Fisher apparently predicting a Con maj.

    How reliable is he? I know a lot of these ecpets got it wrong last time round....

    Dunno, all the models point to Con Maj. I wouldn't go piling on though personally.
    What does your betting strategy look like now? Mine's turned on its head and I'm drowning if Yougov are right.
    Well as long as the Lib Dems don't have a miracle revival amongst pensioners in the west country I should be ok. Plaid can die too.

    If the Tories sweep London, Lib Dems win the West country and Plaid take Rhondda and Ynys Mons I'll have given back a bit of dosh.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    leomckinstry said:

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?

    I kinda know this.

    The public polls you see are very neutral, free from bias, and usually ask VI first.

    Whereas private polls the Tories used last time asked VI after the supplementary questions, so after you'd said you preferred Cameron as PM, trusted Dave and George on the economy over the two Eds you'd be more likely to admit on planning on voting Tory.

    Whereas it's the other way round with public polls

    The Tory private polls also used their attack lines in their polls, which whilst not push polling it turned out to be more accurate.

    For example the IFS say Ed Miliband's policies would add x billions to the deficit, whereas the Tories have reduced the deficit, who do you think is best suited to run the economy.

    The Crosby/Textor final poll of 2015 had the Tories on 329 versus the 330 that they got
    May isn't running on the economy this time though.
    Oddly she chose to run on her charisma.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Judging by that editorial, I'd say that the Guardian's endorsement of Corbyn is a commercial decision rather than one borne of political conviction.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    edited June 2017
    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    At this rate, I will have to start drinking some horrendous shit like Labatts or Molson....and have to buy it from "The Beer Store".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    leomckinstry said:

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?

    I kinda know this.

    The public polls you see are very neutral, free from bias, and usually ask VI first.

    Whereas private polls the Tories used last time asked VI after the supplementary questions, so after you'd said you preferred Cameron as PM, trusted Dave and George on the economy over the two Eds you'd be more likely to admit on planning on voting Tory.

    Whereas it's the other way round with public polls

    The Tory private polls also used their attack lines in their polls, which whilst not push polling it turned out to be more accurate.

    For example the IFS say Ed Miliband's policies would add x billions to the deficit, whereas the Tories have reduced the deficit, who do you think is best suited to run the economy.

    The Crosby/Textor final poll of 2015 had the Tories on 329 versus the 330 that they got
    May isn't running on the economy this time though.
    Oddly she chose to run on her charisma.
    Economic outlook v charisma is a tough one for sure.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Local by-elections weren't even a pointer to the local elections.

    Perhaps you should review your previous predictions:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/03/30/looking-forward-to-the-county-council-elections-2017/

    before making more.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Surprised by the mori poll.

    LAB haven't got 40% since 2001!

    CON haven't got 45% since... 1970 ☺
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited June 2017
    Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited June 2017
    JackW said:

    May up first tonight - BBC News

    Good news for May I think.

    Both are going to be under attack and be on the defensive for vast majority of their time on the programme.

    If Corbyn is under attack at the end, that is the last thing people will remember.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    leomckinstry said:

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?

    I kinda know this.

    The public polls you see are very neutral, free from bias, and usually ask VI first.

    Whereas private polls the Tories used last time asked VI after the supplementary questions, so after you'd said you preferred Cameron as PM, trusted Dave and George on the economy over the two Eds you'd be more likely to admit on planning on voting Tory.

    Whereas it's the other way round with public polls

    The Tory private polls also used their attack lines in their polls, which whilst not push polling it turned out to be more accurate.

    For example the IFS say Ed Miliband's policies would add x billions to the deficit, whereas the Tories have reduced the deficit, who do you think is best suited to run the economy.

    The Crosby/Textor final poll of 2015 had the Tories on 329 versus the 330 that they got
    May isn't running on the economy this time though.
    I'm sure they'll be asking questions on what she is running on.
    She's on her uppers?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    leomckinstry said:

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?

    I kinda know this.

    The public polls you see are very neutral, free from bias, and usually ask VI first.

    Whereas private polls the Tories used last time asked VI after the supplementary questions, so after you'd said you preferred Cameron as PM, trusted Dave and George on the economy over the two Eds you'd be more likely to admit on planning on voting Tory.

    Whereas it's the other way round with public polls

    The Tory private polls also used their attack lines in their polls, which whilst not push polling it turned out to be more accurate.

    For example the IFS say Ed Miliband's policies would add x billions to the deficit, whereas the Tories have reduced the deficit, who do you think is best suited to run the economy.

    The Crosby/Textor final poll of 2015 had the Tories on 329 versus the 330 that they got
    May isn't running on the economy this time though.
    I'm sure they'll be asking questions on what she is running on.
    Empty
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/870704414981447680
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    edited June 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
    I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2017
    The Diane Abbott effect?

    https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/870656118577651712
    https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/870657837806084099

    Also the feed mentions other registration changes, surprise surprise the only real increases are in ultra-safe student seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    williamglenn said:

    JackW said:

    May up first tonight - BBC News

    She's already relegating herself to being the warm-up act.
    On balance I think this favours Jezza. The PM gets her attacks in first but he has the final word. If she has a mare Corbyn can appear all charm, conviction, passion and if he's really on the mark say in terms :

    "However much I disagree the her I thank the PM for her service but the nation need to move on."

    Kill her with kindness ....

    The Conservative bedwetting will see mattress sales boom as never before.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    Sadly you are correct
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Ave_it said:

    Surprised by the mori poll.

    LAB haven't got 40% since 2001!

    CON haven't got 45% since... 1970 ☺

    LD/LIBs haven't got 7% since ... 1959.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    timmo said:

    Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?

    Will they work like guardian letters to American voters?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    williamglenn said:

    JackW said:

    May up first tonight - BBC News

    She's already relegating herself to being the warm-up act.
    I think thats advantage May audience gets louder the longer it goes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    brokenwheel said:

    The Diane Abbott effect?

    https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/870656118577651712
    https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/870657837806084099

    Also the feed mentions other registration changes, surprise surprise the only real increases are in ultra-safe student seats.

    Postal clear up
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I knew it

    https://twitter.com/apmcfadyen/status/870537528310468613
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Tories finally waking up to economics?
    https://twitter.com/patel4witham/status/870184658075615232
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Alistair said:

    I knew it

    twitter.com/apmcfadyen/status/870537528310468613

    Arf!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    At this rate, I will have to start drinking some horrendous shit like Labatts or Molson....and have to buy it from "The Beer Store".
    Moosehead is nice, but ironically you can't get it everywhere (due to inter-provincial protectionism!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The blame for this farcical situation where Corbyn has a chance of becoming PM can only lay with the morons who virtue signalled him on to the Labour leader ballot paper. They thought he couldn't win and only did it to show off how "fair" they were.

    Playing contrived games with democracy is unforgivable

    Utter pricks!

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Alistair said:

    I knew it

    https://twitter.com/apmcfadyen/status/870537528310468613

    LOL that's funny. When TV speak and politics speak collide.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    CCHQ don't know what they are doing, or they are trying to stop complacency?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    At this stage, it can only be to get the vote out surely?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
    Hah, I'm not going to blame defeat on this one issue. I am saying we should lose if it is true. Cheating is just not on (even to defeat Farage :p ).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    Aaaaaaaand right on cue the panic leaks designed to get out the waverers.
    Pretty sure similar was said in 97 by senior labour sources.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    CCHQ don't know what they are doing, or they are trying to stop complacency?
    Or maybe May's got enemies in senior positions?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    It's shit the bed time for the Tories.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Chris said:

    Ave_it said:

    Surprised by the mori poll.

    LAB haven't got 40% since 2001!

    CON haven't got 45% since... 1970 ☺

    LD/LIBs haven't got 7% since ... 1959.
    If there were a result like 45-40-7 on the night then that's the sort of gap which probably still would've seen the Tories home and dry back in the immediate post-War period. Sadly not any more, because Scotland.

    As it is, we have to rely on these very optimistic Labour figures being wrong. Head says they are, but heart is very faint.

    Will be tremendously relieved to have this all over and done with - assuming that it ends with the right result, of course. God alone knows whether we'll get it or not.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    CCHQ don't know what they are doing, or they are trying to stop complacency?
    Or maybe May's got enemies in senior positions?
    They don't get the knives out 5 days before an election. They do it at 22.01 Thursday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
    Hah, I'm not going to blame defeat on this one issue. I am saying we should lose if it is true. Cheating is just not on (even to defeat Farage :p ).
    No. 25 in a long list of potential reasons.

    Or alternatively there is only one, female, reason.

    Either way, what do you emigrants know? ;)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50%
    No they weren't.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    KentRising said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    It's shit the bed time for the Tories.
    You're not really going you fall for the old things look tight we need every vote muff are you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    edited June 2017
    dixiedean said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    At this rate, I will have to start drinking some horrendous shit like Labatts or Molson....and have to buy it from "The Beer Store".
    Moosehead is nice, but ironically you can't get it everywhere (due to inter-provincial protectionism!)
    To be fair, North America as a whole the craft beer scene is very strong and a lot of decent beer is on offer. It is just the mainstream brand stuff is absolutely bloody awful.

    Sierra Nevada Pale Ale is up there with the best beer going.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    isam said:

    The blame for this farcical situation where Corbyn has a chance of becoming PM can only lay with the morons who virtue signalled him on to the Labour leader ballot paper. They thought he couldn't win and only did it to show off how "fair" they were.

    Playing contrived games with democracy is unforgivable

    Utter pricks!

    I agree! No matter what the result of this election I am going to get politically active to promote boring old bourgeois democracy, capitalism with a reasonable welfare state, freedom of speech etc. There are worrying currents abroad (I mean abroad at home).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    isam said:

    The blame for this farcical situation where Corbyn has a chance of becoming PM can only lay with the morons who virtue signalled him on to the Labour leader ballot paper. They thought he couldn't win and only did it to show off how "fair" they were.

    Playing contrived games with democracy is unforgivable

    Utter pricks!

    It's their fault he's Labour leader. It will be the Tories' fault if he ends up winning having been 25% ahead. They have fought a truly abysmal campaign.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

    Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

    Why leak so much ?>

    CCHQ don't know what they are doing, or they are trying to stop complacency?
    The latter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
    Three weeks ago, there was agreement that 1/10 for the majority was put-your-mortgage-on-it-value, despite NOM being 1/8 on Election Day 2015 and 1/10 being overturned during the night for Brexit and Trump.

    Now the majority is 1/4 (1.25) on Betfair. Given what we know about the Midlands marginals and the redistribution of the UKIP vote, surely there's now some value in this bet?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    edited June 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    The blame for this farcical situation where Corbyn has a chance of becoming PM can only lay with the morons who virtue signalled him on to the Labour leader ballot paper. They thought he couldn't win and only did it to show off how "fair" they were.

    Playing contrived games with democracy is unforgivable

    Utter pricks!

    It's their fault he's Labour leader. It will be the Tories' fault if he ends up winning having been 25% ahead. They have fought a truly abysmal campaign.

    I think you are being rather generous on calling it a campaign. Making a bad manifesto statement and then letting your opponent hog the limelight for 99% of the time without much of a rebuttal of the fairy-tales he is telling isn't a campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    One thing is clear - IF Corbyn pulls this off (Which is still unlikely) he completely bloody owns the Labour Party.
    He'll be able to go on as long as he wants.

    This isn't a counterfactual I expect to see mind.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

    For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

    I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    They will.

    But they have not killed Labour off for a generation; and their leader has been exposed as a sociopathic blancmange, unable to think on her feet. This is not how it was supposed to be.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited June 2017
    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50%
    No they weren't.
    17 May 49%. Near enough. Same on 12 May. Same on 7 May.

    20 April, 50%.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Pulpstar said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
    I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.
    The problem with Corbyn is that he doesn't understand how real life works. If you raise taxes it changes people's behaviour and as per my example earlier with private schools, suddenly your move to get 1.6bn in tax suddenly costs you money
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Do posts below indicate that electorate numbers are now available for all seats?

    This is absolutely key info - if total young turnout (as % of population, not electorate) - ie total votes cast by young people - is going to be up significantly then surely it is going to need to be based on increased registrations.

    Need to see total electorate vs at GE 2015 and EU ref 2016.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Chris said:

    Ave_it said:

    Surprised by the mori poll.

    LAB haven't got 40% since 2001!

    CON haven't got 45% since... 1970 ☺

    LD/LIBs haven't got 7% since ... 1959.
    May could follow Antony Eden 2 years as PM with a 100 Maj then failure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Nemtynakht said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
    I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.
    The problem with Corbyn is that he doesn't understand how real life works. If you raise taxes it changes people's behaviour and as per my example earlier with private schools, suddenly your move to get 1.6bn in tax suddenly costs you money
    Noone cares about that till after June 8th though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    SouthamObserver said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    They will.

    But they have not killed Labour off for a generation; and their leader has been exposed as a sociopathic blancmange, unable to think on her feet. This is not how it was supposed to be.

    I said on the last thread...it isn't necessarily about killing off a party. May had the chance to do what Blair did, which was shift the centre ground to such an extent that anybody wanting to form a government would be dragged by that e.g. Cameron 2010 was Blair with a tiny step to the right.

    Now whatever happens Corbynism is going to take over the Labour Party and even if May wins she won't have killed that off or reshaped what centre ground means*.

    * I don't necessarily think that is good or bad, mostly because I don't really know what May thinks is the centre.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50%
    No they weren't.
    17 May 49%. Near enough. Same on 12 May. Same on 7 May.

    20 April, 50%.
    My average never got above 47.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    SouthamObserver said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    They will.

    But they have not killed Labour off for a generation; and their leader has been exposed as a sociopathic blancmange, unable to think on her feet. This is not how it was supposed to be.

    True. But Labour are in a great place for GE2022.

    Brexit done, all the blame on the Tories, deficit only 3 years away from being cleared.

    Labour can get an electable leader, and clean up.

    Or will it stick with Corbyn??
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

    For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

    I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

    I have a very bad feeling about the election too.

    I am not watching tonight. I can't bear to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
    Three weeks ago, there was agreement that 1/10 for the majority was put-your-mortgage-on-it-value, despite NOM being 1/8 on Election Day 2015 and 1/10 being overturned during the night for Brexit and Trump.

    Now the majority is 1/4 (1.25) on Betfair. Given what we know about the Midlands marginals and the redistribution of the UKIP vote, surely there's now some value in this bet?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
    Feel free to pile in, I think that lot could drift still further.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is clear - IF Corbyn pulls this off (Which is still unlikely) he completely bloody owns the Labour Party.
    He'll be able to go on as long as he wants.

    This isn't a counterfactual I expect to see mind.

    Well, err, until the public figure *him* out too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Casino_Royale said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    They will.

    But they have not killed Labour off for a generation; and their leader has been exposed as a sociopathic blancmange, unable to think on her feet. This is not how it was supposed to be.

    ....deficit only 3 years away from being cleared.

    Lolololol!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

    For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

    I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

    BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT ****

    Your Name Vill Also Go On Zer List .. Vot Is It ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Yorkcity said:

    Chris said:

    Ave_it said:

    Surprised by the mori poll.

    LAB haven't got 40% since 2001!

    CON haven't got 45% since... 1970 ☺

    LD/LIBs haven't got 7% since ... 1959.
    May could follow Antony Eden 2 years as PM with a 100 Maj then failure.
    At least Suez was a reaction to an external event. This is self-inflicted.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Boris on Sky News again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    edited June 2017
    Nemtynakht said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
    I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.
    The problem with Corbyn is that he doesn't understand how real life works. If you raise taxes it changes people's behaviour and as per my example earlier with private schools, suddenly your move to get 1.6bn in tax suddenly costs you money
    It is interesting...Cameron and Miliband were hammered for basically not understanding the world because never had a proper job.

    Now Corbyn comes along, "man of the people", who has never had a proper job and he absolutely thick as two short planks, which Dave and Ed certainly aren't.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    Trouble is I can't help thinking that whoever wins I lose.

    Breaking my lifelong habit of voting for the local candidate rather than party or prospective PM I will very reluctantly vote Tory. But that is only because they are the only party I trust to deliver some form of Brexit.

    Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned. There are plenty of Tories I could vote for - David Davis being the best example for me personally - but I doubt any of them will get the chance to lead the party so I am once again (with a short hiatus of a few days to make sure they win the election) back in the realms of a plague on all your houses.

    Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Casino_Royale said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

    For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

    I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

    I have a very bad feeling about the election too.

    I am not watching tonight. I can't bear to.
    Casino and Big G in all honesty there is still only one result a Conservative majority .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    The_Apocalypse said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
    I'm not sure May's vision of Brexit will hold water anymore.

    Corbyn is by far the bigger risk. If you're on the Left, you surely want him to go, the Tories to own it, and a sensible leader to position for a clear win in GE2022.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

    For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

    I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

    I think Corbyn is more likely to deliver Brexit, but it will be a planned Brexit not a carcrash Brexit (Think TM in election mode). He actually believes in it, and she doesn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

    I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
    If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
    Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50%
    No they weren't.
    17 May 49%. Near enough. Same on 12 May. Same on 7 May.

    20 April, 50%.
    My average never got above 47.
    Nevertheless Mr £2.99 is wrong.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    A much more encouraging vox pop for the Tories tonight on C4 News.

    From Mansfield.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Casino_Royale said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

    For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

    I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

    I have a very bad feeling about the election too.

    I am not watching tonight. I can't bear to.
    I do think she will do OK but the trend is very much with Corbyn
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Postals. What % already cast and what % of the total votes?

    Then, how much do Labour have to be ahead on the day to win?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    MarqueeMark said:

    A much more encouraging vox pop for the Tories tonight on C4 News.

    From Mansfield.

    I have a cake riding on that constituency.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited June 2017
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?

    I've seen one this evening when I was out canvassing. Headed PoliticalBetting.com, they are genuine and helpful.

    At first I thought it was a private poll but it simply lays out the political facts in Richmond Park. Mike is doing his bit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited June 2017
    Evening sexy people,

    Everyone having a good Mega Polling Saturday Eve I hope? :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

    For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

    I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

    I think Corbyn is more likely to deliver Brexit, but it will be a planned Brexit not a carcrash Brexit (Think TM in election mode). He actually believes in it, and she doesn't.
    But other than Corbyn, few others in the Labour party believe in it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    bobajobPB said:

    I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

    They will.

    But they have not killed Labour off for a generation; and their leader has been exposed as a sociopathic blancmange, unable to think on her feet. This is not how it was supposed to be.

    ....deficit only 3 years away from being cleared.

    Lolololol!
    Yes. GE2022 is 3 years away from the end of 2025 target.
This discussion has been closed.