May could follow Antony Eden 2 years as PM with a 100 Maj then failure.
At least Suez was a reaction to an external event. This is self-inflicted.
I consider Suez to be entirely self inflicted as well. There was absolutely no need to get all macho when we could have sorted it all out diplomatically. Eden was a fool.
Postals. What % already cast and what % of the total votes?
Then, how much do Labour have to be ahead on the day to win?
My guess probably 2/3rds cast and about 13-14% of total votes. Noting that the proportion of swing and undecided voters is significantly lower amongst those with PVs than those without.
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?
I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
Three weeks ago, there was agreement that 1/10 for the majority was put-your-mortgage-on-it-value, despite NOM being 1/8 on Election Day 2015 and 1/10 being overturned during the night for Brexit and Trump.
Now the majority is 1/4 (1.25) on Betfair. Given what we know about the Midlands marginals and the redistribution of the UKIP vote, surely there's now some value in this bet?
Does what we thought we knew about the Midland marginals still hold true? and are the ex-Kippers still breaking for the Blue team in the proportion of 2 weeks ago? I'm not sure any more.
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
I think Corbyn is more likely to deliver Brexit, but it will be a planned Brexit not a carcrash Brexit (Think TM in election mode). He actually believes in it, and she doesn't.
The issues will be if the EU require the ECJ to have jurisdiction over EU migrants here and they seek 50-100 billion settlement. Neither will be acceptable
Right, I'm not watching the May-bot and the terrorist sympathizer go on QT. Too depressing. I'm taking the poster sometimes known as Bobajob or whatever his handle is this week advice...to the pub (and one without a tv!!!!).
OT. I've always thought Rebecca Long Bailey in the Shadow Cabinet was indicative of how far Labour had fallen under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. That was until I saw her being interviewed with Pritty Patel who made her look like a genius.
I'm starting to think Labour deserve to win this.....
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
I have a very bad feeling about the election too.
I am not watching tonight. I can't bear to.
I do think she will do OK but the trend is very much with Corbyn
Better to win the last week than the first.
All CCHQ have to do is win it. The chicken entrails read 'not propitious...".
Just watched last night's Andrew Neil interview with Tim Farron. Whilst poor Tim is having a bit of a mare of a campaign, have to say that Neil was phenomenally rude and unprofessional, especially in the last 5 minutes or so:
My prediction based on today's state of the parties and assuming the Tories don't regress further is +7 seats in Scotland for the Tories and net +20 seats in E&W, including a handful of losses as well as gains, leading to a majority of 70.
Completely unscientific and I'm not good at predictions like this.
I don't actually expect the Tories to regress from now on in, but if they do, those seats in Scotland could be important.
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
You would have thought by now he would just say no....It doesn't matter what he really believes or his religion tells him. He is a politician, they bend the truth....
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
I think Corbyn is more likely to deliver Brexit, but it will be a planned Brexit not a carcrash Brexit (Think TM in election mode). He actually believes in it, and she doesn't.
But other than Corbyn, few others in the Labour party believe in it.
They are Democrats though.
They want the soft as shit Brexit
Corbyn wants a slightly harder one but not the BatShit crazy Tory/UKIP one
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?
I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
Three weeks ago, there was agreement that 1/10 for the majority was put-your-mortgage-on-it-value, despite NOM being 1/8 on Election Day 2015 and 1/10 being overturned during the night for Brexit and Trump.
Now the majority is 1/4 (1.25) on Betfair. Given what we know about the Midlands marginals and the redistribution of the UKIP vote, surely there's now some value in this bet?
Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?
I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
Three weeks ago, there was agreement that 1/10 for the majority was put-your-mortgage-on-it-value, despite NOM being 1/8 on Election Day 2015 and 1/10 being overturned during the night for Brexit and Trump.
Now the majority is 1/4 (1.25) on Betfair. Given what we know about the Midlands marginals and the redistribution of the UKIP vote, surely there's now some value in this bet?
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
You would have thought by now he would just say no....It doesn't matter what he really believes or his religion tells him. He is a politician, they bend the truth....
The bizarre thing is he's already said no, and now he's refusing to answer the question. Crazy.
Just reading through the twitter (link below) - looks like they have lots of electorate figures - looks as if increases in voter registration are patchy - some clear increases in seats with large numbers of students but otherwise little if any sign of increases in electorate.
If the above is right it looks like good news for the Conservatives - implies there isn't a universal increase in the youth vote coming.
But more info needed - this is absolutely key and I'm surprised so little attention is being paid to it.
If anyone can get this info I reckon it's at least if not more important than the next poll.
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
I have a very bad feeling about the election too.
I am not watching tonight. I can't bear to.
Casino and Big G in all honesty there is still only one result a Conservative majority .
I hope you are right but the trend is going one way. Corbyn was interviewed on channel 5 tonight and to my amazement my wife, who cannot stand him, said he came over so reasonably
Just watched last night's Andrew Neil interview with Tim Farron. Whilst poor Tim is having a bit of a mare of a campaign, have to say that Neil was phenomenally rude and unprofessional, especially in the last 5 minutes or so:
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.
Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.
The problem with Corbyn is that he doesn't understand how real life works. If you raise taxes it changes people's behaviour and as per my example earlier with private schools, suddenly your move to get 1.6bn in tax suddenly costs you money
It is interesting...Cameron and Miliband were hammered for basically not understanding the world because never had a proper job.
Now Corbyn comes along, "man of the people", who has never had a proper job and he absolutely thick as two short planks, which Dave and Ed certainly aren't.
I just don't get why CCHQ hasn't pulled apart the so-called costings. It's not like they have been up to much else. At the moment the Tories have put up an unpopular manifesto which is basically a managerial document for Government which doesn't need costing as it fits within current spending and is unpopular because of it. They need to pull apart the airy fairy Labour wish list because people should know it cannot be delivered, yet paid for by "the top 5%".
BTW, do any tories regret passing the investigatory powers act now the prospect of PM Corbyn isn't unrealistic?
I was just as much opposed to it when it was the Tories in power. The current crop of politicians are both as bad as each other when it comes to control freakery.
Just reading through the twitter (link below) - looks like they have lots of electorate figures - looks as if increases in voter registration are patchy - some clear increases in seats with large numbers of students but otherwise little if any sign of increases in electorate.
If the above is right it looks like good news for the Conservatives - implies there isn't a universal increase in the youth vote coming.
But more info needed - this is absolutely key and I'm surprised so little attention is being paid to it.
If anyone can get this info I reckon it's at least if not more important than the next poll.
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.
Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
Will people now start to realise that no real Brexit plan exists?
Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.
Sheffield Hallam as well.
There's been a marked increase - according to the polls - in people's willingness to vote tactically. I suspect that will see Clegg home (by a whisker).
What's the best hedge against a Corbyn government...Dollars or Euros?
I'd be inclined to buy shares in blue chip companies that make as much of their revenue as possible overseas. As Sterling becomes almost worthless, their values ought to skyrocket in a corresponding fashion.
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.
Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.
I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.
It is fascinating to look at Labour's polling graph since the day the election was called. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017 Straight up every day from the first day, by one percentage point every four days. Not just a dementia tax blip but 45 solid days of upward trend. Quite remarkable. Meanwhile the Tories are back where they started from. Now, I'm still one of those who's taking the polls with a pinch of salt - it just seems impossible, given all the other facts, that there will be a swing to Labour on June 8th - but there are two facts in Labour's favour...
1. If the polls were right in the middle of April, why shouldn't they be right now? 2. The narrative/trend is going Labour's way and (unbelievably, I admit) there is no evidence yet that the Tories have halted it or will halt it. Clearly if the Labour graph were to continue on the same path for the next six days, there'll be very little chance of May's achieving her objective.
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
I have a very bad feeling about the election too.
I am not watching tonight. I can't bear to.
Casino and Big G in all honesty there is still only one result a Conservative majority .
I hope you are right but the trend is going one way. Corbyn was interviewed on channel 5 tonight and to my amazement my wife, who cannot stand him, said he came over so reasonably
Perhaps Jezza was always more accomplished than any of us remotely realized. What was that quotation by Lenin? 'As soon as their guard is down, we shall smash them with our clenched fist.'
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
I think Corbyn is more likely to deliver Brexit, but it will be a planned Brexit not a carcrash Brexit (Think TM in election mode). He actually believes in it, and she doesn't.
The issues will be if the EU require the ECJ to have jurisdiction over EU migrants here and they seek 50-100 billion settlement. Neither will be acceptable
Evening all. I see some are still thinking May will scrape through a majority.
I'm struggling to understand. True May has been dreadful and the manifesto was badly received. The polling movement can't all be due to this though. The social care policy was badly communicated but as I think I said before I actually support the principle housing assets are going to have to be used in this way in the future if we want fairness within the generations. I also don't understand Corbyn's appeal. He is still the same disagreeable character whose MPs didn't want.. His manifesto has lots of goodies but surely people realise that they have to be paid for some way down the line. And hasn't nationalisation and it's like had its day? Why would people vote for this now when they declined it when it was offered the first time round? Then again I didn't understand the appeal of Brexit.
I will be voting Conservative but sadly I expect to see a Labour government this time next week.
Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?
I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.
If we lose, I hope it is because of this.
Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?
Hah, I'm not going to blame defeat on this one issue. I am saying we should lose if it is true. Cheating is just not on (even to defeat Farage ).
The Tory private polling (which was accurate) showed no real change throughout the campaign. None of the much publicized gaffes such as the Ed Stone changed much at all.
The Daily YouGov's scared them and that caused Cameron to go balls to the wall for the last 2 weeks.
Interestingly though, they didn't unleash the Living Wage - even though they must surely have done the groundwork for it.
Anybody know the story of why they didn't show the goodies before the election?
The common sense answer is that they don't want to make any expensive promises while Brexit plays out and we still have a deficit, hence the rather dry manifesto - bar a valiant effort to address the social care "crisis" which spectacularly backfired of course.
But who wants to vote for that when free owls are on offer from the other side?
I'm talking about 2015 - Osborne presumably knew he was going to announce the Living Wage if they won the election, or at least would have done some of the preparatory work for it. Yet even though polls were at some times not looking good for the Tories, they kept the goodies hidden in the bag. Did they not think the Living Wage was an attractive policy? Did they not believe how bad the polls looked? Or was the Living Wage actually only decided on after they won?
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
Yes, neither of them will do the country any good. My own opinion on why I am more worried about Corbyn than May comes down to this:
May changes her mind too often in response to events. Corbyn seemingly never changes his mind at all no matter what happens or what the consequences are. Nothing in politics scares me quite as much a politician who thinks he is never wrong.
Con majority was 1/4 in Bill Hills when I popped in earlier and it's the equivalent on Bf now. I literally put the holiday fund on Macron with Hills at those odds a few days before the Fr Pres second round. It felt like lending money rather than risking it. Despite some of the attempted reassurances not prepared to put the same fund on Con majority (yet, anyway).
UKIP. The Bf UKIP To Win a Seat market has been down as low as 4 today. I'm pretty sure it was about 10 yesterday or day before. Off the back of the South Thanet story obviously. Meanwhile unless I'm missing something UKIP has disappeared off the SPIN seats market (had been sell 0.5 buy 1 last time I noticed) so not sure what that's all about.
Three reasons why if I actually had received a ballot paper I could not vote labour More power to the trade unions, pie in the sky economics and nationalization and their back history. Three reasons I can't vote conservative, delusion over brexit, school funding(although one should ask why thr teaching/none teaching staff rato has changed dramatically) (removing LEA) control, then the failure to accept the £72k cap on care liability that had been agreed in coalition. Why could I vote lib dem, a choice between deal, no deal or status quo, a sensible policy on health andlong term care and a commitment to voting reform. The negative is whilst I quite like tim he is struggling. But like many on here we have too much time and interest in the subject to reflect the population as a whole.
Missed the last thread -- what's this about letters in Con/LD marginals??
If they are also in LAB/LD seats pointless exercise really.
I hope LDs get completely wiped out and all English seats are either Tory/Lab need to focus minds there are only 2 choices Status Quo or something radically different
Missed the last thread -- what's this about letters in Con/LD marginals??
If they are also in LAB/LD seats pointless exercise really.
I hope LDs get completely wiped out and all English seats are either Tory/Lab need to focus minds there are only 2 choices Status Quo or something radically different
Nothing like a crushing of the LDs to bring two enemies together..
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
The liberal stance is that it is no-one's business but his own. A nicety I suppose.
It's a tricky one. If he just said "Being gay is wrong" he'd be toast, but saying "Being gay is wrong, I know this from my invisible friend Big Nobodaddy" seems to be more, rather than even less, acceptable.
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
Had an interesting evening of phoning at CCHQ, Lynton Crosby was coming out just as I was going in and had a brief chat with Andrea Leadsom who was sat just behind me then passed Michael Gove on the way out. In terms of results on a head to head choice between May and Corbyn May is still clearly ahead though did get 1 Labour to Tory switcher but in her own words 'this is a personal vote for Wes Streeting not that idiot leading the Labour Party!'
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.
Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.
I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.
A cynic might say that when we treat our politicians like shit, we end up with shit politicians.
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.
Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.
I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.
A cynic might say that when we treat our politicians like shit, we end up with shit politicians.
I would suggest we treat them like shit because they show they deserve it.
Comments
He left there at 4:32pm and is now closing in on Hersham .... via Huddersfield ....
Harder for the Conservatives than it looks IMO.
I'm starting to think Labour deserve to win this.....
All CCHQ have to do is win it. The chicken entrails read 'not propitious...".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDnebtweXzY
Does he have some kind of death wish?
Completely unscientific and I'm not good at predictions like this.
I don't actually expect the Tories to regress from now on in, but if they do, those seats in Scotland could be important.
They want the soft as shit Brexit
Corbyn wants a slightly harder one but not the BatShit crazy Tory/UKIP one
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/870713067172233218
Maybe if all the Corbynistas pile in tonight it could be 1.33 tomorrow, or maybe I just save the cash for Thursday night?
If the above is right it looks like good news for the Conservatives - implies there isn't a universal increase in the youth vote coming.
But more info needed - this is absolutely key and I'm surprised so little attention is being paid to it.
If anyone can get this info I reckon it's at least if not more important than the next poll.
https://twitter.com/1000cuts?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5007/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-local-by-election-review-2015-2017-parliament/p1
tbf, it's probably a question to ask David Davis.
All things considered, Neil was quite restrained. Paxman would have punched him.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
12th May, 47,48 and 49. 11th May, 46.
6th May 47, 8th May 44.
Your cherry picking is misleading. Don't do it.
I have my spies that say it is so...
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.
1. If the polls were right in the middle of April, why shouldn't they be right now?
2. The narrative/trend is going Labour's way and (unbelievably, I admit) there is no evidence yet that the Tories have halted it or will halt it. Clearly if the Labour graph were to continue on the same path for the next six days, there'll be very little chance of May's achieving her objective.
Perhaps Jezza was always more accomplished than any of us remotely realized. What was that quotation by Lenin? 'As soon as their guard is down, we shall smash them with our clenched fist.'
I'm struggling to understand. True May has been dreadful and the manifesto was badly received. The polling movement can't all be due to this though. The social care policy was badly communicated but as I think I said before I actually support the principle housing assets are going to have to be used in this way in the future if we want fairness within the generations. I also don't understand Corbyn's appeal. He is still the same disagreeable character whose MPs didn't want.. His manifesto has lots of goodies but surely people realise that they have to be paid for some way down the line. And hasn't nationalisation and it's like had its day? Why would people vote for this now when they declined it when it was offered the first time round? Then again I didn't understand the appeal of Brexit.
I will be voting Conservative but sadly I expect to see a Labour government this time next week.
Vast majority of postals will now have been sent - say 85% to 90% - which would be 18% to 19% of total votes which will be cast.
(Assuming % postals unchanged)
May changes her mind too often in response to events. Corbyn seemingly never changes his mind at all no matter what happens or what the consequences are. Nothing in politics scares me quite as much a politician who thinks he is never wrong.
UKIP. The Bf UKIP To Win a Seat market has been down as low as 4 today. I'm pretty sure it was about 10 yesterday or day before. Off the back of the South Thanet story obviously. Meanwhile unless I'm missing something UKIP has disappeared off the SPIN seats market (had been sell 0.5 buy 1 last time I noticed) so not sure what that's all about.
Which is odd, because Nats are so placid and never get upset or angry about anything.
More power to the trade unions, pie in the sky economics and nationalization and their back history.
Three reasons I can't vote conservative, delusion over brexit, school funding(although one should ask why thr teaching/none teaching staff rato has changed dramatically) (removing LEA) control, then the failure to accept the £72k cap on care liability that had been agreed in coalition.
Why could I vote lib dem, a choice between deal, no deal or status quo, a sensible policy on health andlong term care and a commitment to voting reform. The negative is whilst I quite like tim he is struggling. But like many on here we have too much time and interest in the subject to reflect the population as a whole.
I hope LDs get completely wiped out and all English seats are either Tory/Lab need to focus minds there are only 2 choices Status Quo or something radically different
"I have my own Christian beliefs but I think that everyone should be free to act as they wish without interference from the state" or similar words.
How I Saved The LibDems For The Nation
I will just leave that thought there!
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
Loads.