Evening all. I see some are still thinking May will scrape through a majority.
I'm struggling to understand. True May has been dreadful and the manifesto was badly received. The polling movement can't all be due to this though. The social care policy was badly communicated but as I think I said before I actually support the principle housing assets are going to have to be used in this way in the future if we want fairness within the generations. I also don't understand Corbyn's appeal. He is still the same disagreeable character whose MPs didn't want.. His manifesto has lots of goodies but surely people realise that they have to be paid for some way down the line. And hasn't nationalisation and it's like had its day? Why would people vote for this now when they declined it when it was offered the first time round? Then again I didn't understand the appeal of Brexit.
I will be voting Conservative but sadly I expect to see a Labour government this time next week.
Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
Across the two York seats the Con/Lab vote is pretty even. Not Cambridge at all. And even Cambridge is surrounded by villages only a few minutes away that are heavily Tory.
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
Yes, neither of them will do the country any good. My own opinion on why I am more worried about Corbyn than May comes down to this:
May changes her mind too often in response to events. Corbyn seemingly never changes his mind at all no matter what happens or what the consequences are. Nothing in politics scares me quite as much a politician who thinks he is never wrong.
Corbyn listens why do you think Trident replacement is in manifesto
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
Of course he thinks homosexuality is a sin. He's a fuck*ing evangelical. I'm sure he thinks sodomy is a sin too.
He'd have been better off just saying it straight (sic).
"I have my own Christian beliefs but I think that everyone should be free to act as they wish without interference from the state" or similar words.
Yeah, isn't that the definition of liberalism?
Indeed. Behavioural moral issues between consenting adults are a matter for them alone, that's clearly a liberal policy. Farron could have cleared this up months ago with a clearly thought through answer.
I'd disagree with that stance on moral issues that affect others (abortion / euthanasia / death penalty etc) but that isn't what he was asked about.
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.
Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
The liberal stance is that it is no-one's business but his own. A nicety I suppose.
It's a tricky one. If he just said "Being gay is wrong" he'd be toast, but saying "Being gay is wrong, I know this from my invisible friend Big Nobodaddy" seems to be more, rather than even less, acceptable.
Did he say that? The correct response is, what I think about gay sex is none of your business and what you think or do is none of mine.
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.
Will they still be at uni to vote though?
They'd better bloody vote for Corbyn there now I'm on for £25 at 10-1.
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
Of course he thinks homosexuality is a sin. He's a fuck*ing evangelical. I'm sure he thinks sodomy is a sin too.
He'd have been better off just saying it straight (sic).
"I have my own Christian beliefs but I think that everyone should be free to act as they wish without interference from the state" or similar words.
Yeah, isn't that the definition of liberalism?
Indeed. Behavioural moral issues between consenting adults are a matter for them alone, that's clearly a liberal policy. Farron could have cleared this up months ago with a clearly thought through answer.
I'd disagree with that stance on moral issues that affect others (abortion / euthanasia / death penalty etc) but that isn't what he was asked about.
He was equally wriggly about abortion on r4 this morning.
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.
Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.
What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.
And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.
Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.
I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.
A cynic might say that when we treat our politicians like shit, we end up with shit politicians.
I would suggest we treat them like shit because they show they deserve it.
A combination of the two I'd say - a lot of very good people are put off from going into politics by the environment in which they now have to operate.
Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.
Sheffield Hallam as well.
They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals
There are LD/SNP marginals?
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.
Loads.
Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.
I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.
For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.
I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.
Will they still be at uni to vote though?
They'd better bloody vote for Corbyn there now I'm on for £25 at 10-1.
I voted in my first general election in York as a student in 1997!
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
The liberal stance is that it is no-one's business but his own. A nicety I suppose.
It's a tricky one. If he just said "Being gay is wrong" he'd be toast, but saying "Being gay is wrong, I know this from my invisible friend Big Nobodaddy" seems to be more, rather than even less, acceptable.
Did he say that? The correct response is, what I think about gay sex is none of your business and what you think or do is none of mine.
Of course it's his electors' business if it influences how he votes in parliament.
There appears to be a decent betting opportunity at present with sportingbet by taking their Tories to win fewer than 370.5 seats, equivalent to an overall majority of 90, at odds of 17/20 or 1.85. This compares with other bookies, for example Betfair Sportsbook, whose corresponding offer is for the Tories to win fewer than 357.5 seats, equivalent to a significantly lower overall majority of 64, at slightly inferior odds of 5/6 or 1.833. This surely can't last, but DYOR.
Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.
Sheffield Hallam as well.
They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals
There are LD/SNP marginals?
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.
Loads.
Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.
Inverness Nairn will forever be Lib Dem no matter what Farron decides on Brexit or not. It is just the SNP got more, but the core Lib Dem vote there is around 18000 I think.
Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.
Sheffield Hallam as well.
They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals
There are LD/SNP marginals?
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.
Loads.
Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.
Agree re Inverness and R&S.
alternatively, CS&ER is also a reasonable shot for them
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
Of course he thinks homosexuality is a sin. He's a fuck*ing evangelical. I'm sure he thinks sodomy is a sin too.
He'd have been better off just saying it straight (sic).
"I have my own Christian beliefs but I think that everyone should be free to act as they wish without interference from the state" or similar words.
Yeah, isn't that the definition of liberalism?
Indeed. Behavioural moral issues between consenting adults are a matter for them alone, that's clearly a liberal policy. Farron could have cleared this up months ago with a clearly thought through answer.
I'd disagree with that stance on moral issues that affect others (abortion / euthanasia / death penalty etc) but that isn't what he was asked about.
He was equally wriggly about abortion on r4 this morning.
That's a much more nuanced issue than homosexuality IMO, but possibly deserving of an even more straight answer. "Christian opposed to abortion" isn't really headline news.
I don't have any confidence in the BBC any more. Last night on Springwatch they showed what looked like a Whitethroat feeding young on the nest and called it a Chiffchaff. If anyone wants to check it is about 49.40 minutes in.
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.
Will they still be at uni to vote though?
They'd better bloody vote for Corbyn there now I'm on for £25 at 10-1.
Plymouth University end of term = today! Of course they may have bothered to get postal votes.
Leeds University, on the other hand, is still in-term for another fortnight.....
Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.
Sheffield Hallam as well.
They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals
There are LD/SNP marginals?
Edi West, O&S, E Dunbartonshire, Inverness Bairn, Ross Cromarty, Fife NE.
Loads.
Not sure about Inverness and Ross & Skye -- the Highlands was fairly Brexit-y, so I can see the LibDems leaking unionist votes to the Tories there (as appears to be happening in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire).
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.
Inverness Nairn will forever be Lib Dem no matter what Farron decides on Brexit or not. It is just the SNP got more, but the core Lib Dem vote there is around 18000 I think.
I have come to view that Corbyn is less risky than May. He has some extravagant spending pledges but compared to May and her clowns trying to deliver Brexit? Reckon Corbyn's probably better for the economy!!
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.
Sadly also good news for Cat Smith in there too (tables of the figures have now been added to the article). Copeland is interesting too, Labour supporters registering to try and take it back?
I cannot see how this can anything other than a disaster for May and have pulled out of all my pro tory bets with a view to jumping back in Monday/Tuesday
We can expect the usual balanced BBC audience and they have a wealth of open goals
- Trump and Climate change - CPS charges - Swerving the debate - The mythical dementia tax
and so on
You can bet she won't get a single friendly question and she isn't adept at seamlessly getting the subject on to something she wants to talk about
And then Corbyn follows to dissect everything she has said whilst being fed softball questions
This is going to be very uncomfortable viewing and I'm sure will move the markets if not the actual votes
Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
The issue is that the value of someone's land isn't related at all to someone's income or wealth.
Right, I'm not watching the May-bot and the terrorist sympathizer go on QT. Too depressing. I'm taking the poster sometimes known as Bobajob or whatever his handle is this week advice...to the pub (and one without a tv!!!!).
I cannot see how this can anything other than a disaster for May and have pulled out of all my pro tory bets with a view to jumping back in Monday/Tuesday
We can expect the usual balanced BBC audience and they have a wealth of open goals
- Trump and Climate change - CPS charges - Swerving the debate - The mythical dementia tax
and so on
You can bet she won't get a single friendly question and she isn't adept at seamlessly getting the subject on to something she wants to talk about
And then Corbyn follows to dissect everything she has said whilst being fed softball questions
This is going to be very uncomfortable viewing and I'm sure will move the markets if not the actual votes
CPS charges surely won't be discussed because of sub judice.
I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.
This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.
I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.
The problem with Corbyn is that he doesn't understand how real life works. If you raise taxes it changes people's behaviour and as per my example earlier with private schools, suddenly your move to get 1.6bn in tax suddenly costs you money
It is interesting...Cameron and Miliband were hammered for basically not understanding the world because never had a proper job.
Now Corbyn comes along, "man of the people", who has never had a proper job and he absolutely thick as two short planks, which Dave and Ed certainly aren't.
I just don't get why CCHQ hasn't pulled apart the so-called costings. It's not like they have been up to much else. At the moment the Tories have put up an unpopular manifesto which is basically a managerial document for Government which doesn't need costing as it fits within current spending and is unpopular because of it. They need to pull apart the airy fairy Labour wish list because people should know it cannot be delivered, yet paid for by "the top 5%".
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
6178 sounds like bad news for Mulholland, which would make for a nice little winner.
Sadly also good news for Cat Smith in there too (tables of the figures have now been added to the article). Copeland is interesting too, Labour supporters registering to try and take it back?
I'd say Cat Smith has a good chance of holding her seat; I tipped it earlier in the week and got on at 6's. When I last looked it was at 4/1.
Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
Across the two York seats the Con/Lab vote is pretty even. Not Cambridge at all. And even Cambridge is surrounded by villages only a few minutes away that are heavily Tory.
Well from that Cambridge audience, the roads to those surrounding villages must have been heavily mined....
Reading about that LVT, it's not actually a tax on garden, value of the land where your home is - don't know how they'd calculate that. Its apparently only for people who actually own the property and would replace Council Tax, not be in addition to.
Thanks for that link. Interesting that they don't think it'll ever happen - it's in the LD and Green manifestos too, so at some point it looks at though something like it will be implemented.
@Pulpstar I'm trying to think positive, given what *could* happen on June 8th.
I have come to view that Corbyn is less risky than May. He has some extravagant spending pledges but compared to May and her clowns trying to deliver Brexit? Reckon Corbyn's probably better for the economy!!
I thought Corbyn was personally in favour of and in fact took Labour through the HoC A50 division to vote in favour of Brexit.
Yes it does. You just need to understand what the polls are actually saying.
They are saying that Corbyn is on his way to win.
No they aren't. On the current polling the Tories would get a modest majority. There is absolutely no polling that shows Corbyn getting anywhere near a majority.
Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.
Sheffield Hallam as well.
They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals
Brilliantly played.
I don't suppose we'll ever be able to prove either way, but I have a suspicion these letters will be more effective in terms of tipping the balance in a few key marginal seats than the saturation-bombing of Facebook video attack ads has been. Certainly more effective on a cost-per-vote basis.
It's very easy to scroll away from a paid ad in your Facebook feed, but when someone actually sends you a personal letter in this day and age it's quite hard to ignore.
In the final week the SCon vote recedes badly, they easily take BRS but the remaining Lab vote in DCT tactically votes Mundell out. Labour take East Lothian and hold Ed South while the Lib Dems sweep their target seats leaving it 1.SNP, 2. LD, 3.Lab, 4.Con in Scotland.
I have come to view that Corbyn is less risky than May. He has some extravagant spending pledges but compared to May and her clowns trying to deliver Brexit? Reckon Corbyn's probably better for the economy!!
You would vote for a donkey if it had a red rosette :-)
Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?
Because both the Tories and the BBC have been taken over by pinkos - the kind of people who went to down the road schools and think it's acceptable not to stand still for a monarchist song at the end of a cultural event.
Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?
They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.
Sheffield Hallam as well.
They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals
Brilliantly played.
I don't suppose we'll ever be able to prove either way, but I have a suspicion these letters will be more effective in terms of tipping the balance in a few key marginal seats than the saturation-bombing of Facebook video attack ads has been. Certainly more effective on a cost-per-vote basis.
It's very easy to scroll away from a paid ad in your Facebook feed, but when someone actually sends you a personal letter in this day and age it's quite hard to ignore.
I assume the Lib Dems will be declaring these as local spend?
Yes it does. You just need to understand what the polls are actually saying.
They are saying that Corbyn is on his way to win.
No they aren't. On the current polling the Tories would get a modest majority. There is absolutely no polling that shows Corbyn getting anywhere near a majority.
Has there been any polling that shows Corbyn getting a shot at forming a Govt.?
Anyone noticed that YouGov's model has Tim Farron in a dogfight in Westmorland and Lonsdale - 40% Con, 40% LD?
Perhaps YouGov is right after all
Tim has had a woeful campaign. Even his local supporters must be wincing.
It used to be heavily Tory - in 1992 Michale Jopling had a 16,500 majority. If the old two party politics really is asserting itself, then.....
The usual nonsense of YG 'importing' people of similar demographics from surrounding seats, which (the last time I looked) had Kensington as marginal Tory.
Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....
Next stint as guest editor starts end of this month.
I'll try and publish during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.
How many does May need to stay in power? Take out SF = 646 seats. Half = 323. Take away the Unionists = 313.
Try getting the Tories down to 313 on Baxter - Labour need to be well over 40% to achieve it, and now that 20% of the votes are already posted it ain't going to happen. Time for the PB Tories to be thankful for small mercies.
Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....
Next stint as guest editor starts end of this month.
I'll try and publish during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.
How many does May need to stay in power? Take out SF = 646 seats. Half = 323. Take away the Unionists = 313.
Try getting the Tories down to 313 on Baxter - Labour need to be well over 40% to achieve it, and now that 20% of the votes are already posted it ain't going to happen. Time for the PB Tories to be thankful for small mercies.
Had an interesting evening of phoning at CCHQ, Lynton Crosby was coming out just as I was going in and had a brief chat with Andrea Leadsom who was sat just behind me then passed Michael Gove on the way out. In terms of results on a head to head choice between May and Corbyn May is still clearly ahead though did get 1 Labour to Tory switcher but in her own words 'this is a personal vote for Wes Streeting not that idiot leading the Labour Party!'
If the information about trends of votes already cast has been sent up the line, and it continues to match expectations, I'm still calling a majority of 70+.
What is diffferent though is that new voters won't be using postal votes so the results might fall short of what might be the trend expectations.
Comments
One's a show where deluded narcissists compete for a chance to meet the queen. The other's....
There are many conference centres in the north that would be neutral
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
Note: "Labour target seats Leeds North West and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - the latter Tory-held, the former Lib Dem - have seen an increase in registered voters of 6,178 and 3,310 respectively."
I'd disagree with that stance on moral issues that affect others (abortion / euthanasia / death penalty etc) but that isn't what he was asked about.
https://order-order.com/2017/06/02/tory-and-labour-candidates-all-believe-may-heading-for-comfortable-win/
And I don't believe O&S will be in the slightest bit marginal. I would be staggered if the SNP got even half the LD vote.
East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edi West all looking like great prospects for them though.
I'll try and publish it during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.
There appears to be a decent betting opportunity at present with sportingbet by taking their Tories to win fewer than 370.5 seats, equivalent to an overall majority of 90, at odds of 17/20 or 1.85.
This compares with other bookies, for example Betfair Sportsbook, whose corresponding offer is for the Tories to win fewer than 357.5 seats, equivalent to a significantly lower overall majority of 64, at slightly inferior odds of 5/6 or 1.833.
This surely can't last, but DYOR.
alternatively, CS&ER is also a reasonable shot for them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czqtjk_iGFU&t=2s
Perhaps YouGov is right after all
Leeds University, on the other hand, is still in-term for another fortnight.....
WRONG.
Ah hem.
I have come to view that Corbyn is less risky than May. He has some extravagant spending pledges but compared to May and her clowns trying to deliver Brexit? Reckon Corbyn's probably better for the economy!!
We can expect the usual balanced BBC audience and they have a wealth of open goals
- Trump and Climate change
- CPS charges
- Swerving the debate
- The mythical dementia tax
and so on
You can bet she won't get a single friendly question and she isn't adept at seamlessly getting the subject on to something she wants to talk about
And then Corbyn follows to dissect everything she has said whilst being fed softball questions
This is going to be very uncomfortable viewing and I'm sure will move the markets if not the actual votes
https://www.ft.com/content/3bc751dc-41ef-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2
@Pulpstar I'm trying to think positive, given what *could* happen on June 8th.
I don't suppose we'll ever be able to prove either way, but I have a suspicion these letters will be more effective in terms of tipping the balance in a few key marginal seats than the saturation-bombing of Facebook video attack ads has been. Certainly more effective on a cost-per-vote basis.
It's very easy to scroll away from a paid ad in your Facebook feed, but when someone actually sends you a personal letter in this day and age it's quite hard to ignore.
Financially ruinous, completely hilarious.
Tim has had a woeful campaign. Even his local supporters must be wincing.
It used to be heavily Tory - in 1992 Michale Jopling had a 16,500 majority. If the old two party politics really is asserting itself, then.....
oh, you are.
Good job we don't have any on here
First question - ouch.
Try getting the Tories down to 313 on Baxter - Labour need to be well over 40% to achieve it, and now that 20% of the votes are already posted it ain't going to happen. Time for the PB Tories to be thankful for small mercies.
The more people see her the less they like her.
Strong Start
What is diffferent though is that new voters won't be using postal votes so the results might fall short of what might be the trend expectations.