politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament

GIN1138 said:

Evening sexy people,

Everyone having a good Mega Polling Saturday Eve I hope?

Ed Balls Eve was better.

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT ****

Your Name Vill Also Go On Zer List .. Vot Is It ?

Dont tell him Casino

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

dyedwoolie said:

Pulpstar said:

Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.

If we lose, I hope it is because of this.

Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?

Three weeks ago, there was agreement that 1/10 for the majority was put-your-mortgage-on-it-value, despite NOM being 1/8 on Election Day 2015 and 1/10 being overturned during the night for Brexit and Trump.

Now the majority is 1/4 (1.25) on Betfair. Given what we know about the Midlands marginals and the redistribution of the UKIP vote, surely there's now some value in this bet?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708

Does what we thought we knew about the Midland marginals still hold true? and are the ex-Kippers still breaking for the Blue team in the proportion of 2 weeks ago? I'm not sure any more.

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

A much more encouraging vox pop for the Tories tonight on C4 News.

From Mansfield.

I have a cake riding on that constituency.

Which way ?

Harder for the Conservatives than it looks IMO.

Right, I'm not watching the May-bot and the terrorist sympathizer go on QT. Too depressing. I'm taking the poster sometimes known as Bobajob or whatever his handle is this week advice...to the pub (and one without a tv!!!!).

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

I have a very bad feeling about the election too.

I am not watching tonight. I can't bear to.

I do think she will do OK but the trend is very much with Corbyn

Better to win the last week than the first.

All CCHQ have to do is win it. The chicken entrails read 'not propitious...".

another_richard said:

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

A much more encouraging vox pop for the Tories tonight on C4 News.

From Mansfield.

I have a cake riding on that constituency.

Which way ?

Harder for the Conservatives than it looks IMO.

Free bet, I win a cake if Tories take it.

My prediction based on today's state of the parties and assuming the Tories don't regress further is +7 seats in Scotland for the Tories and net +20 seats in E&W, including a handful of losses as well as gains, leading to a majority of 70.

Completely unscientific and I'm not good at predictions like this.

I don't actually expect the Tories to regress from now on in, but if they do, those seats in Scotland could be important.

FrancisUrquhart said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

I think Corbyn is more likely to deliver Brexit, but it will be a planned Brexit not a carcrash Brexit (Think TM in election mode). He actually believes in it, and she doesn't.

But other than Corbyn, few others in the Labour party believe in it.

They are Democrats though.

They want the soft as shit Brexit

Corbyn wants a slightly harder one but not the BatShit crazy Tory/UKIP one

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT **** BEDWETTER ALERT ****

Your Name Vill Also Go On Zer List .. Vot Is It ?

Not really - just seems a likely case to me and I am stating an honest opinion. I would be delighted to be wrong

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

dyedwoolie said:

Pulpstar said:

Can North Korea launch a missile or something to get McKinlay off story #1 ?

I wouldn't worry. Might lose him thanet south but sub judice means no party can 'capitalise' hence won't shift opinion.

If we lose, I hope it is because of this.

Lol. Just three weeks back the Tories were touching 50% and about to conquer the world. Now PBTories are debating whether to blame the whole sorry saga on BBC audience selection or one naughty MP?

Three weeks ago, there was agreement that 1/10 for the majority was put-your-mortgage-on-it-value, despite NOM being 1/8 on Election Day 2015 and 1/10 being overturned during the night for Brexit and Trump.

Now the majority is 1/4 (1.25) on Betfair. Given what we know about the Midlands marginals and the redistribution of the UKIP vote, surely there's now some value in this bet?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708

Better value as a hedge might be Labour minority government, as someone suggested earlier today ?

What's the best hedge against a Corbyn government...Dollars or Euros?

Just reading through the twitter (link below) - looks like they have lots of electorate figures - looks as if increases in voter registration are patchy - some clear increases in seats with large numbers of students but otherwise little if any sign of increases in electorate.

If the above is right it looks like good news for the Conservatives - implies there isn't a universal increase in the youth vote coming.

But more info needed - this is absolutely key and I'm surprised so little attention is being paid to it.

If anyone can get this info I reckon it's at least if not more important than the next poll.

https://twitter.com/1000cuts?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5007/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-local-by-election-review-2015-2017-parliament/p1

Chris said:

I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.

Does he have some kind of death wish?

Of course he thinks homosexuality is a sin. He's a fuck*ing evangelical. I'm sure he thinks sodomy is a sin too.

rcs1000 said:

timmo said:

Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?

They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.

I hope he's taken advice.

Danny565 said:

Just watched last night's Andrew Neil interview with Tim Farron. Whilst poor Tim is having a bit of a mare of a campaign, have to say that Neil was phenomenally rude and unprofessional, especially in the last 5 minutes or so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDnebtweXzY

Farron was deliberately blocking Neil because he did not want to answer. Can't answer the question.

All things considered, Neil was quite restrained. Paxman would have punched him.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nemtynakht said:

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

bobajobPB said:

I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

This whole saga is depressing, because it makes you realise there are no good choices at this GE. Only different varieties of economic disaster. For all my worries about Corbyn, May's Hard Brexit will likely lead us to higher taxes, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling tax revenues. Yet there's still this part of me that is freaked out by Corbyn more. Weird.

I think you're right to be freaked out by Corbyn more. Unfortunately there isn't a light centre-left government as a realistic choice.

The problem with Corbyn is that he doesn't understand how real life works. If you raise taxes it changes people's behaviour and as per my example earlier with private schools, suddenly your move to get 1.6bn in tax suddenly costs you money

It is interesting...Cameron and Miliband were hammered for basically not understanding the world because never had a proper job.

Now Corbyn comes along, "man of the people", who has never had a proper job and he absolutely thick as two short planks, which Dave and Ed certainly aren't.

I just don't get why CCHQ hasn't pulled apart the so-called costings. It's not like they have been up to much else. At the moment the Tories have put up an unpopular manifesto which is basically a managerial document for Government which doesn't need costing as it fits within current spending and is unpopular because of it. They need to pull apart the airy fairy Labour wish list because people should know it cannot be delivered, yet paid for by "the top 5%".

Pong said:

BTW, do any tories regret passing the investigatory powers act now the prospect of PM Corbyn isn't unrealistic?

I was just as much opposed to it when it was the Tories in power. The current crop of politicians are both as bad as each other when it comes to control freakery.

MikeL said:

Just reading through the twitter (link below) - looks like they have lots of electorate figures - looks as if increases in voter registration are patchy - some clear increases in seats with large numbers of students but otherwise little if any sign of increases in electorate.

If the above is right it looks like good news for the Conservatives - implies there isn't a universal increase in the youth vote coming.

But more info needed - this is absolutely key and I'm surprised so little attention is being paid to it.

If anyone can get this info I reckon it's at least if not more important than the next poll.

https://twitter.com/1000cuts?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5007/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-local-by-election-review-2015-2017-parliament/p1

Yes I have no idea if the figures are accurate. I assume they are from a source as I can't find an official release of electorate data as yet.

brokenwheel said:

Naughty.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/870713067172233218

That's actually quite funny.

Missed the last thread -- what's this about letters in Con/LD marginals??

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

timmo said:

Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?

They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.

Sheffield Hallam as well.

There's been a marked increase - according to the polls - in people's willingness to vote tactically. I suspect that will see Clegg home (by a whisker).

ThreeQuidder said:

Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?

Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.

They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.

Chris said:

I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.

Does he have some kind of death wish?

The liberal stance is that it is no-one's business but his own. A nicety I suppose.

another_richard said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

bobajobPB said:

I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.

Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.

What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.

And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.

Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.

I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.

It is fascinating to look at Labour's polling graph since the day the election was called. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017 Straight up every day from the first day, by one percentage point every four days. Not just a dementia tax blip but 45 solid days of upward trend. Quite remarkable. Meanwhile the Tories are back where they started from. Now, I'm still one of those who's taking the polls with a pinch of salt - it just seems impossible, given all the other facts, that there will be a swing to Labour on June 8th - but there are two facts in Labour's favour...

1. If the polls were right in the middle of April, why shouldn't they be right now?
2. The narrative/trend is going Labour's way and (unbelievably, I admit) there is no evidence yet that the Tories have halted it or will halt it. Clearly if the Labour graph were to continue on the same path for the next six days, there'll be very little chance of May's achieving her objective.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am starting to think that the move to Corbyn is more Brexit related than an increase in the youth vote. Those wanting to remain can see a weak Corbyn rolling over and they get their soft Brexit. They know that medium term Corbyn will fail but at least the Country is still close to their EU and by 2022 socialism will have put the economy in a disaster zone and the conservatives will again have to return to sort out the economy.

For the first time I think Theresa will lose her majority and that there will a minority government.

I am sorry for her and have supported her but if that is the result she will stand down and a new leader elected

I think Corbyn is more likely to deliver Brexit, but it will be a planned Brexit not a carcrash Brexit (Think TM in election mode). He actually believes in it, and she doesn't.

The issues will be if the EU require the ECJ to have jurisdiction over EU migrants here and they seek 50-100 billion settlement. Neither will be acceptable

Corbyn will accept both of those.

Evening all. I see some are still thinking May will scrape through a majority.

I'm struggling to understand. True May has been dreadful and the manifesto was badly received. The polling movement can't all be due to this though. The social care policy was badly communicated but as I think I said before I actually support the principle housing assets are going to have to be used in this way in the future if we want fairness within the generations. I also don't understand Corbyn's appeal. He is still the same disagreeable character whose MPs didn't want.. His manifesto has lots of goodies but surely people realise that they have to be paid for some way down the line. And hasn't nationalisation and it's like had its day? Why would people vote for this now when they declined it when it was offered the first time round? Then again I didn't understand the appeal of Brexit.

I will be voting Conservative but sadly I expect to see a Labour government this time next week.

FPT does anybody have an answer to this query?

Sandpit said:

MyBurningEars said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

Didnt 2015 QT help turn it Daves way?

The Tory private polling (which was accurate) showed no real change throughout the campaign. None of the much publicized gaffes such as the Ed Stone changed much at all.

The Daily YouGov's scared them and that caused Cameron to go balls to the wall for the last 2 weeks.

Interestingly though, they didn't unleash the Living Wage - even though they must surely have done the groundwork for it.

Anybody know the story of why they didn't show the goodies before the election?

The common sense answer is that they don't want to make any expensive promises while Brexit plays out and we still have a deficit, hence the rather dry manifesto - bar a valiant effort to address the social care "crisis" which spectacularly backfired of course.

But who wants to vote for that when free owls are on offer from the other side?

I'm talking about 2015 - Osborne presumably knew he was going to announce the Living Wage if they won the election, or at least would have done some of the preparatory work for it. Yet even though polls were at some times not looking good for the Tories, they kept the goodies hidden in the bag. Did they not think the Living Wage was an attractive policy? Did they not believe how bad the polls looked? Or was the Living Wage actually only decided on after they won?

Con majority was 1/4 in Bill Hills when I popped in earlier and it's the equivalent on Bf now. I literally put the holiday fund on Macron with Hills at those odds a few days before the Fr Pres second round. It felt like lending money rather than risking it. Despite some of the attempted reassurances not prepared to put the same fund on Con majority (yet, anyway).

UKIP. The Bf UKIP To Win a Seat market has been down as low as 4 today. I'm pretty sure it was about 10 yesterday or day before. Off the back of the South Thanet story obviously. Meanwhile unless I'm missing something UKIP has disappeared off the SPIN seats market (had been sell 0.5 buy 1 last time I noticed) so not sure what that's all about.

Pulpstar said:

Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

Why leak so much ?>

Either a genuine senior source with an authorised leak (GOTV) or a junior bigging themselves up

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?

Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.

They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.

Fingers crossed we don't get an influx of angry voters.

He's upset some Nats with it.

Which is odd, because Nats are so placid and never get upset or angry about anything.

Not cybernats ... quick, man the barricades!

MikeSmithson said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

timmo said:

Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?

They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.

Sheffield Hallam as well.

They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals

I hope you have donned your flame suit, sir!

Three reasons why if I actually had received a ballot paper I could not vote labour
More power to the trade unions, pie in the sky economics and nationalization and their back history.
Three reasons I can't vote conservative, delusion over brexit, school funding(although one should ask why thr teaching/none teaching staff rato has changed dramatically) (removing LEA) control, then the failure to accept the £72k cap on care liability that had been agreed in coalition.
Why could I vote lib dem, a choice between deal, no deal or status quo, a sensible policy on health andlong term care and a commitment to voting reform. The negative is whilst I quite like tim he is struggling. But like many on here we have too much time and interest in the subject to reflect the population as a whole.

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?

Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.

They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.

Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.

They are signed Mike Smithson....

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

Adam Bienkov‏Verified account @AdamBienkov 3h3 hours ago

Up to 40 battleground seats the Tories thought were bankable are now in doubt, a senior campaign source tells BI.

Why leak so much ?>

Either a genuine senior source with an authorised leak (GOTV) or a junior bigging themselves up

If true, then the entire Conservative ground campaign would have been a waste of cash and resources......

MikeSmithson said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

timmo said:

Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?

They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.

Sheffield Hallam as well.

They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals

There are LD/SNP marginals?

ThreeQuidder said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?

Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.

They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.

Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.

They are signed Mike Smithson....

Politicalbetting.com is not just Smithson.

It belongs to him and him alone (apparently).

MikeSmithson said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

timmo said:

Has OGH gone to ground on these letters that have been sent out in Con/LD marginals?

They've gone out in Lab/LD marginals too. A Conservative friend of mine in Southwark has got one too.

Sheffield Hallam as well.

They've also gone in LD-SNP marginals

After 8th June I think we'll see an OGH thread :

How I Saved The LibDems For The Nation

Richard_Tyndall said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

bobajobPB said:

I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.

Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.

What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.

And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.

Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.

I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.

A cynic might say that when we treat our politicians like shit, we end up with shit politicians.

Great advertising if nothing else.

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?

Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.

They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.

Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.

They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.

I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

bobajobPB said:

I would urge our PB Tory friends to get down the pub, neck a few cold ones and chill out. Enjoy the weekend. You are still going to win.

Otherwise May just repels me. Her interventionism, her control freakery and her basic apparent lack of ability mean the sooner she is gone the better as far as I am concerned.

Basically almost all politicians and certainly all the party leaders are fecking useless and don't deserve our support.

What appals me is their lack of proper preparation and inattention to detail.

And its not just the election campaign - it also applies to all those Budgets which fell apart within days or to the various negotiations with the EU by Blair, Brown and Cameron or to the multiple attempts at Middle Eastern meddling.

Yep. I yearn for the days of Thatcher or even Wilson. I may not agreed with what they stood for entirely (although of course I lean more towards Thatcher than Wilson) but they were at least competent.

I know the common saying is we get the leaders we deserve but when the pool we are choosing from is so fecking awful I don't think we can be held entirely to blame.

A cynic might say that when we treat our politicians like shit, we end up with shit politicians.

I would suggest we treat them like shit because they show they deserve it.

Last week the debate was in left-leaning Cambridge, similarly now in York. I wonder why the conservatives agreed to this?

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?

Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.

They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.

Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.

They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.

I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.

So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....