politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manif
Comments
-
Yougov does give us one further teasing piece of data - the direction of travel appears to have reversed since Manchester. That may play out too over the coming days.0
-
Mr. B, could be a Singapore 2015 type race for Mercedes. But, if so, then Red Bull might have some interesting odds.
Or not. I just checked, and they're both 3 or lower for a podium. Bit rubbish.0 -
Which implies that Labour were even closer than this immediately prior. Which is totally out of kilter with the other polls.dyedwoolie said:Yougov does give us one further teasing piece of data - the direction of travel appears to have reversed since Manchester. That may play out too over the coming days.
0 -
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?SouthamObserver said:
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?0 -
It's like neither party wants to win the election / have the Brexit 'bag'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/8680091695715164160 -
You're right, they can't and he won'tsurbiton said:bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!0 -
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.kle4 said:The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.0 -
If the FTSE100 closed right this second, it would close at its highest position ever.another_richard said:FTSE250 goes through 20,000 for the first time ever:
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ftse250&spf=1495784246273
Neither the stock markets or the betting markets are expecting anything but 'strong and stable'.0 -
It's blindingly subtle isn't it.MarkHopkins said:surbiton said:bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
Just like Corbyn wouldn't win the leadership election - he was just there to widen the debate.
Let's hope people are wiser this time.0 -
It looks that way but we have little data on how bad it got by may 22. It's an unknowableRobD said:
Which implies that Labour were even closer than this immediately prior. Which is totally out of kilter with the other polls.dyedwoolie said:Yougov does give us one further teasing piece of data - the direction of travel appears to have reversed since Manchester. That may play out too over the coming days.
0 -
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.0 -
And Trump. It's why investors make mistakesSouthamObserver said:
The UK voted for Brexit. As you say: "Humans are not good at assessing low probability / massive impact risks."Charles said:
Do you understand the concept of "tail risk"surbiton said:
Do not worry. LABOUR CANNOT WIN. CORBYN WILL NOT BE PM !!!!!!!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Lock her up!
If Theresa May screws this election up, especially if she reduces the Tory majority or makes Corbyn PM
Just vote Labour [ or, LD or SNP ] to keep the May majority under 100.
Humans are not good at assessing low probability / massive impact risks.
Corbyn is one0 -
It is Brexit which will ensure May wins, whatever the size of her majority or lead in seats she is still increasing the Tory voteshare thanks to UKIP voters, if Brexit was threatened those voters would return to UKIP and more would join themIanB2 said:
In the unlikely event that May were to be comprehensively rejected, there would at least a question mark over the progress of Brexit.Nigelb said:
Venezuela doesn't have a centuries old tradition of democracy; universal comprehensive education; great universities; infrastructure built from Victorian times on., etcMarkHopkins said:Nigelb said:
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset.rkrkrk said:
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.ydoethur said:
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
That's not hyperbole, it's common sense.
A Corbyn premiership would likely do a great deal of damage - particularly when coupled with Brexit - but it's not Venezuela.0 -
Don't the pollsters tend to mark down these groups as less likely to vote? They will have been 'in the base' for polling since the start of the campaign, after all.dyedwoolie said:
I've a feeling now it's down to the youth vote turning out or not along with the Brexiteers who normally don't bother. A hard 43 versus a soft 38 or a soft 43 versus a hard 38IanB2 said:
There is also a big difference between Labour 38% UNS and the reappearance of significant anti-Tory tactical voting in every constituency. We don't have enough evidence to tell the difference, largely because there has so far been little analysis of why the polls are moving as almost no-one expected.dyedwoolie said:Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s.
And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now.
As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!0 -
"The Bill has one simple overriding purpose--to implement the Belfast agreement. The agreement was negotiated by the Northern Ireland parties and agreed on Good Friday."ThreeQuidder said:
That's the establishment of the NI Assembly, it's not really the GFA itself. Although admitting his side had lost is worse than the alternative.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons
He definitely spoke/voted against the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
Seems pretty clearcut to me.0 -
Southam has been repeating this despite having been pointed out to him before.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons0 -
Surely someone who calls themselves 'ThreeQuidder' is a supporter of Corbyn. Didn't you all pay your three quids to get him elected? You should be out electioneering.....ThreeQuidder said:
If only a peacenik were being offered...Roger said:
Strangely enough so am I. The idea of an anti-American peacenik is becoming increasingly appealing.freetochoose said:Although its unlikely I'm beginning to warm to the idea of PM Corbyn, the fall out on here would dwarf that after the referendum, which was pure entertainment.
0 -
Yep, my mistake. It was McDonnell who opposed the GFA.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons
0 -
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.0 -
Nationalism always turns ugly.Scott_P said:Meanwhile, Nicola's brand of joyous and civic Nationalism is in full flow
https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/8678793685630115840 -
Got to admit I don't know wtf is going On! That's why I'm sitting this one out in the main betting wise. I'm astonished at Labour's rise, but maybe the country really is getting very very tired of the establishment.IanB2 said:
Don't the pollsters tend to mark down these groups as less likely to vote? They will have been 'in the base' for polling since the start of the campaign, after all.dyedwoolie said:
I've a feeling now it's down to the youth vote turning out or not along with the Brexiteers who normally don't bother. A hard 43 versus a soft 38 or a soft 43 versus a hard 38IanB2 said:
There is also a big difference between Labour 38% UNS and the reappearance of significant anti-Tory tactical voting in every constituency. We don't have enough evidence to tell the difference, largely because there has so far been little analysis of why the polls are moving as almost no-one expected.dyedwoolie said:Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s.
And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now.
As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!0 -
With you on Raikkonen, the only danger is that Ferrari team orders conspire to switch the cars in favour of the German championship leader.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, I believe you saw (and derided
) my 6.5 No Safety Car bet.
I think it's astonishing that Vettel is 1.9 to win and Raikkonen 19 (down to 19.5 on Betfair, I put a little on him at 27).
If the Ferrari *is* the fastest car, then 19 for Raikkonen to win each way is worth consideration.
With the new tyres, it's going to be a clear one stop race at a circuit where track position counts for everything (ask Nigel Mansell about the latter point). I think the value might be with the Mercedes-powered cars (inc the FI cars and Massa) who will turn their engines up to 11 for one lap in Q3.
No SC is a great bet, was a good value loser last year in the rain and the forecast is for the sun to shine on Sunday.0 -
Ensure she wins but without the really strong hand she said the election would give her. A similar majority is now possible , more do than a landslide.HYUFD said:
It is Brexit which will ensure May wins, whatever the size of her majority or lead in seats she is still increasing the Tory voteshare thanks to UKIP voters, if Brexit was threatened those voters would return to UKIP and more would join themIanB2 said:
In the unlikely event that May were to be comprehensively rejected, there would at least a question mark over the progress of Brexit.Nigelb said:
A Corbyn premiership would likely do a great deal of damage - particularly when coupled with Brexit - but it's not Venezuela.MarkHopkins said:Nigelb said:
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset.rkrkrk said:
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.ydoethur said:
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
That's not hyperbole, it's common sense.0 -
Voters want a competence message from May.HYUFD said:
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.0 -
A friendly word of advice.surbiton said:bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
0 -
I hope so. Against this government of Israel. Israel under a Labour led coalition, genuinely seeking peace and gradually getting out of settlements in occupied land will be different.matt said:
i take it that means sanctions against Israel.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Jeremy Corbyn will pledge to be "tough on terrorism ; tough on the causes of terrorism" #ge17 #blair
0 -
Surely, you are not thinking the unthinkable, are you ?Disraeli said:
A friendly word of advice.surbiton said:bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.0 -
If the unimagined happens at least we all get a puppy guys!0
-
Perhaps, but if so we will see a movement away from lab and toward Con. but lab have kept rising so even mid 30s doesn't worry these anti Corbyn's, so even if 38 does, it won't fall back faranother_richard said:
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.kle4 said:The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.0 -
I think this is right Some Lab Mps really want Cornyn to lose badly.Scrapheap_as_was said:It's like neither party wants to win the election / have the Brexit 'bag'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/868009169571516416
The problem they have if they throw spanners in the works members blame them.
If they don't he does well enough to stay.0 -
He's always struck me as a very fair minded poster (you can tell because we often agreesurbiton said:
Southam has been repeating this despite having been pointed out to him before.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons ) - so I assumed he was just mistaken. Corbyn did vote against Anglo Irish agreement of 1985 - but that was different. 0 -
Roger, I voted for Liz Kendall. This is a matter of public record.Roger said:
Surely someone who calls themselves 'ThreeQuidder' is a supporter of Corbyn. Didn't you all pay your three quids to get him elected? You should be out electioneering.....ThreeQuidder said:
If only a peacenik were being offered...Roger said:
Strangely enough so am I. The idea of an anti-American peacenik is becoming increasingly appealing.freetochoose said:Although its unlikely I'm beginning to warm to the idea of PM Corbyn, the fall out on here would dwarf that after the referendum, which was pure entertainment.
0 -
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.RobD said:
Voters want a competence message from May.HYUFD said:
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
0 -
Pound falls bellow 1.15 stock market surges due to increased international profits. Interesting to track pound euro rate alongside the polls0
-
Correct TMICIPMisam said:
You're right, they can't and he won'tsurbiton said:bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!0 -
You want an owl.Recidivist said:
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.RobD said:
Voters want a competence message from May.HYUFD said:
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.0 -
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.bigjohnowls said:
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?SouthamObserver said:
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
0 -
That will even turn away the Tory Remainers.HYUFD said:
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.0 -
Bristol West Lab 8/11 Betfair
Cambridge Lab 5/2 Bet365
Look like good value.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, on that basis, Perez or Hulkenberg would be the longer shots I'd consider.0
-
Yes, his side hadn't lost yet.rkrkrk said:
He's always struck me as a very fair minded poster (you can tell because we often agreesurbiton said:
Southam has been repeating this despite having been pointed out to him before.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons ) - so I assumed he was just mistaken. Corbyn did vote against Anglo Irish agreement of 1985 - but that was different.0 -
Yepbigjohnowls said:
I think this is right Some Lab Mps really want Cornyn to lose badly.Scrapheap_as_was said:It's like neither party wants to win the election / have the Brexit 'bag'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/868009169571516416
The problem they have if they throw spanners in the works members blame them.
If they don't he does well enough to stay.0 -
And, people are still prepared to vote for him.SouthamObserver said:
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.bigjohnowls said:
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?SouthamObserver said:
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
0 -
@bigjohnowls - In case you missed it, which seat are you canvassing, if I can ask?0
-
Now you say it, yeah.RobD said:
You want an owl.Recidivist said:
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.RobD said:
Voters want a competence message from May.HYUFD said:
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.0 -
You need to convert those stock market numbers to hard currency, otherwise you may just be looking at a mirror image of the weak and unstable pound.another_richard said:FTSE250 goes through 20,000 for the first time ever:
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ftse250&spf=1495784246273
Neither the stock markets or the betting markets are expecting anything but 'strong and stable'.0 -
The settled view was based on the usual OTT media caricature. Anyone is better than their caricature, and he's having the chance to present himself through the TV and social media unfiltered. People think they're going to hear Arthur Scargill Mk 2, and find they're hearing a mild schoolteacher talking reasonably. When the press then say "But he's a terrorist sympathiser" it strikes many as simply implausible.Freggles said:So Corbyn has almost doubled his best leader ratings.
Is there any point at all in doing leader rating comparisons for people like Umunna or Yvette? Corbyn has had two leadership elections and two years at the helm, you'd think the public had a settled view on him by now, but no, the campaign changes things....0 -
May has to increase her majority otherwise there will be pressure on her from the party. I think she would take a majority of 50 plus right now if she was offered it.
If the Conservatives don't get a majority at all or they do but it's reduced she is finished. The 22 will get those letters.0 -
It is entirely consistent. The stock market is pricing in an election result not to their liking but they have to be prepared for.nichomar said:Pound falls bellow 1.15 stock market surges due to increased international profits. Interesting to track pound euro rate alongside the polls
The pound takes a dive; FTSE profits soar. Every cloud has a silver lining !0 -
There's a timelag between polls being taken, polls being reported and voter shifts.kle4 said:
Perhaps, but if so we will see a movement away from lab and toward Con. but lab have kept rising so even mid 30s doesn't worry these anti Corbyn's, so even if 38 does, it won't fall back faranother_richard said:
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.kle4 said:The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.0 -
In their droves. Those who said people won't care were right. It's not enough to see him over the line, but people like him and his policies more than we thought, or they hate Tories enough to vote for Corbyn no matter what.surbiton said:
And, people are still prepared to vote for him.SouthamObserver said:
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.bigjohnowls said:
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?SouthamObserver said:
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile.Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
What changes that narrative in2 weeks?0 -
Not any more. The unthinkable for me was a TMay landslide (and I posted as much in a thread a couple of days ago).surbiton said:
Surely, you are not thinking the unthinkable, are you ?Disraeli said:
A friendly word of advice.surbiton said:bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
The era of the "professional politician" ........ mediocre the lot of them.
(Honourable exception for Nicola Sturgeon, who is not faultless even so)0 -
FTSE250 not nearly so reliant on the declining value of the pound, though.edmundintokyo said:
You need to convert those stock market numbers to hard currency, otherwise you may just be looking at a mirror image of the weak and unstable pound.another_richard said:FTSE250 goes through 20,000 for the first time ever:
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ftse250&spf=1495784246273
Neither the stock markets or the betting markets are expecting anything but 'strong and stable'.0 -
Edit: overly confrontational.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, my mistake. It was McDonnell who opposed the GFA.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons
McDonnell voted for good Friday Agreement.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-31&number=356&mpn=John_Martin_McDonnell&mpc=Hayes_and_Harlington&house=commons0 -
That Corbyn sounds more reasonable than I believe he is no longer strikes me as funny. Labour are stuck with him, what will all those rebellious moaning MPs do when he dies so much better than they said, again?0
-
Dan Hodges, you are voting Tory. Now fuck off !Scrapheap_as_was said:It's like neither party wants to win the election / have the Brexit 'bag'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/8680091695715164160 -
Absolutely. We voted for Brexit, after all; and he is the genuine anti-establishment candidate who really would shake things up amongst the elite. Corbyn will lose, but the Labour surge should give all sensible Tories very considerable pause for thought about Theresa May's capabilities.surbiton said:
And, people are still prepared to vote for him.SouthamObserver said:
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.bigjohnowls said:
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?SouthamObserver said:
The of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
0 -
Some snippets from the IFS manifesto review on the Guardian liveblog.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/26/general-election-2017-terror-corbyn-may-g7-sicily-politics-live
Key points:
Tory manifesto plans imply “another five years of austerity”, the IFS says.
Labour manifesto plans would raises taxes to “their highest ever peacetime level”, the IFS says. It also says Labour’s plans to expand expand the size of the state “would not work”.0 -
It was widely reported the lead went below 10. Days later it decreases even more, the lag had no effect in halting the move in that direction, or it would have fallen even more but for a late reaction.another_richard said:
There's a timelag between polls being taken, polls being reported and voter shifts.kle4 said:
Perhaps, but if so we will see a movement away from lab and toward Con. but lab have kept rising so even mid 30s doesn't worry these anti Corbyn's, so even if 38 does, it won't fall back faranother_richard said:
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.kle4 said:The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.
The surge is real.0 -
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
Absolutely. We voted for Brexit, after all; and he is the genuine anti-establishment candidate who really would shake things up amongst the elite. Corbyn will lose, but the Labour surge should give all sensible Tories very considerable pause for thought about Theresa May's capabilities.surbiton said:
And, people are still prepared to vote for him.SouthamObserver said:
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.bigjohnowls said:
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?SouthamObserver said:
The of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?0 -
Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
Eeek.0 -
Rattled much?surbiton said:
Dan Hodges, you are voting Tory. Now (edited) off !Scrapheap_as_was said:It's like neither party wants to win the election / have the Brexit 'bag'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/868009169571516416
Telling all the Tories to go away, putting it mildly, means you can never win an election. Short sighted much?0 -
On topic, the move to Labour seems to predate the manifesto launches. It starts in late April, which I think it coincides with me visiting Britain. I can't say for sure that there was a causal link but I did have my wifi hotspot broadcasting the SSID "Theresa May isn't very good".0
-
This is, for me, a really important point.RobD said:
You want an owl.Recidivist said:
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.RobD said:
Voters want a competence message from May.HYUFD said:
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
I have been promised an owl. I am entitled to my owl.
Get on with it.0 -
kle4 said:
That Corbyn sounds more reasonable than I believe he is no longer strikes me as funny. Labour are stuck with him, what will all those rebellious moaning MPs do when he dies so much better than they said, again?
It is dangerous: On the surface, Corbyn now does 'sound' reasonable.
But so do sociopaths.
0 -
Have to say I am astonished. I really could not see Labour polling more than 20-25% with Corbyn and Abbott running the show.
I thought this would be over by now and just a question of weighing the Tory votes in two weeks.
Now...0 -
No -- you are mixing up the Good Friday Agreement (which had widespread support) with the earlier Anglo-Irish Agreement which was opposed by Corbyn and co, and some Conservative MPs, and unionists and nationalists.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, my mistake. It was McDonnell who opposed the GFA.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons0 -
Are iFS respected neutrals or are they thought of as leaning one way or another?
That I don't know answers whether their opinion will sway many people, since if people don't know either, it will be easy for allsides to dismiss any criticism.0 -
Cambridge indeed looks value with the strong student voteanother_richard said:Bristol West Lab 8/11 Betfair
Cambridge Lab 5/2 Bet365
Look like good value.0 -
I bet they don't thank him though.surbiton said:
Ironically, some of those MPs may win because of him.kle4 said:That Corbyn sounds more reasonable than I believe he is no longer strikes me as funny. Labour are stuck with him, what will all those rebellious moaning MPs do when he dies so much better than they said, again?
0 -
Mr. kle4, it's alarming.0
-
Are we expecting any polls tonight, or the deluge Sat night instead?0
-
Another election.rcs1000 said:Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
Eeek.0 -
The only thing worse than a Tory government for moderate Labour MPs is a Corbyn-led Labour government.Scrapheap_as_was said:It's like neither party wants to win the election / have the Brexit 'bag'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/8680091695715164160 -
I'd take a team of Sturgeon, Farron and Lucas/Bartley over May, Hammond & Boris/Davis or Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott/Thornberry any day. Especially if Leanne joins in.Disraeli said:
Not any more. The unthinkable for me was a TMay landslide (and I posted as much in a thread a couple of days ago).surbiton said:
Surely, you are not thinking the unthinkable, are you ?Disraeli said:
A friendly word of advice.surbiton said:bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.bigjohnowls said:
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"murali_s said:
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!Razedabode said:The backlash has already started against Corbyn
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
The era of the "professional politician" ........ mediocre the lot of them.
(Honourable exception for Nicola Sturgeon, who is not faultless even so)0 -
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
0 -
I couldn't see them getting 35. Now they're closer to 40. People are loving their freebies.rottenborough said:Have to say I am astonished. I really could not see Labour polling more than 20-25% with Corbyn and Abbott running the show.
I thought this would be over by now and just a question of weighing the Tory votes in two weeks.
Now...0 -
Having initially opposed it:rkrkrk said:
Edit: overly confrontational.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, my mistake. It was McDonnell who opposed the GFA.rkrkrk said:
He voted in favour of the good Friday Agreement.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons
McDonnell voted for good Friday Agreement.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-31&number=356&mpn=John_Martin_McDonnell&mpc=Hayes_and_Harlington&house=commons
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/29/john-mcdonnell-is-deeply-unpleasant-man--and-jeremy-corbyn-wants/
0 -
We've established that he didn't vote against the Good Friday Agreement. It was the Anglo-Irish Agreement he voted against.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
From interview with Sophie Ridge last Sunday: "I’ve always wanted there to be peace and I really welcomed the Good Friday Agreement and all the achievements it has made since then."
Full transcript here; https://labourlist.org/2017/05/what-did-corbyn-actually-say-about-the-ira/
0 -
Think they are supposed to be neutral.kle4 said:Are iFS respected neutrals or are they thought of as leaning one way or another?
That I don't know answers whether their opinion will sway many people, since if people don't know either, it will be easy for allsides to dismiss any criticism.0 -
IFS live shortly on their view of manifestos:NickPalmer said:
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
http://www.fsmevents.com/ifselection2017/0 -
I think they are very well respected technically. Not as expert on macroeconomics I've heard.kle4 said:Are iFS respected neutrals or are they thought of as leaning one way or another?
That I don't know answers whether their opinion will sway many people, since if people don't know either, it will be easy for allsides to dismiss any criticism.
The likes of John Redwood are often quite critical of them.
Imagine most people don't pay a huge amount of attention to them.0 -
Viewers in NI will have their own, much less tough border control message of course.HYUFD said:
Voters want a tough border control message from Maykle4 said:
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.Chris said:Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.0 -
They're not going to be too happy when the country is bankrupted trying to pay for them.kle4 said:
I couldn't see them getting 35. Now they're closer to 40. People are loving their freebies.rottenborough said:Have to say I am astonished. I really could not see Labour polling more than 20-25% with Corbyn and Abbott running the show.
I thought this would be over by now and just a question of weighing the Tory votes in two weeks.
Now...0 -
If you think that is a serious costed programme, I doubt your MP scrutiny abilities amounted to much.NickPalmer said:
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.0 -
I've read the manifesto, it is a cavalcade of more this, more that over and over. The LD one was more costed. All will have uncosted stuff, but labours is full of massive spending over promises. The one good thing about the Tory one was being willing to tell its core voters they couldn't have some of their goodies anymore.NickPalmer said:
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.0 -
They've just posted evidence of themselves breaking the law - driving while using a mobile phone - to the internet. What are people like?Recidivist said:
Nationalism always turns ugly.Scott_P said:Meanwhile, Nicola's brand of joyous and civic Nationalism is in full flow
https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/867879368563011584
I guess we'll find out at 10pm on June 8th...0 -
Let me save you the trouble:rottenborough said:
IFS live shortly on their view of manifestos:NickPalmer said:
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
http://www.fsmevents.com/ifselection2017/
Tories: More austerity
Labour: Moon on a stick 0 -
Mr. kle4, alas that the Conservatives took the most self-harming journey since Sideshow Bob stepped on a dozen rakes in a row.0
-
We need a @Richard_Nabavi Oval Office broadcast. How am I to best negate the effect of PM JC on my financial arrangements?0
-
Poor LDs, likely to lose seats to Con, and now they cannot win back from Lab thanks to the surge. Without Scotland they'll struggle get over 5.MattyNeth said:
Cambridge indeed looks value with the strong student voteanother_richard said:Bristol West Lab 8/11 Betfair
Cambridge Lab 5/2 Bet365
Look like good value.0 -
I have a friend who has always been a Corbyn fan, but he looks to be a good indicator of public opinion. He was enthused by the Labour manifesto and jubilant about the Tory one. Before those, he was wobbling and seriously considering voting for the Women's Equality Party (because it has equality in the title).
His solution to the Islamist problem is to buy them off. Bung 'em all a few million quid from the middle east and they'll all go home and watch their colour tellies. I did mention that Osama wasn't short of a bob or two, but it had no effect
He thinks Corbyn could win now, but then, he was convinced Ed would win at a canter.
I suspect that next week, he'll be considering the Greens. May will win, the grey filly is cantering at the moment and the challenger is moving up from the back, but thee are some massive obstacles coming up, and he'll try to go straight through those big fences.0 -
Well it'll be fine for those with defined benefit pensions in the public sector. Council leaders and the like will be just fine.rcs1000 said:
I think it's fair to say that neither Sterling, nor the stock market, would greet a Corbyn victory with much enthusiasm.another_richard said:FTSE250 goes through 20,000 for the first time ever:
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ftse250&spf=1495784246273
Neither the stock markets or the betting markets are expecting anything but 'strong and stable'.
But you know who'll suffer. The lower middle defined contribution plebs in the private sector.0 -
It made me better inclined to them, but I seem to be the only one.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, alas that the Conservatives took the most self-harming journey since Sideshow Bob stepped on a dozen rakes in a row.
0 -
A position one doesn't often see so unashamedly stated.NickPalmer said:
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. SNIPSouthamObserver said:
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
In good King Charles's golden days,
When Loyalty no harm meant;
A Zealous High-Church man was I,
And so I gain'd Preferment.
Unto my Flock I daily Preach'd,
Kings are by God appointed,
And Damn'd are those who dare resist,
Or touch the Lord's Anointed.
And this is law,4 I will maintain
Unto my Dying Day, Sir.
That whatsoever King may reign,
Still I'll be the Vicar of Bray, Sir!
When Royal James possest the crown,
And popery grew in fashion;
The Penal Law I shouted down,
And read the Declaration:
The Church of Rome I found would fit
Full well my Constitution,
And I had been a Jesuit,
But for the Revolution.
And this is Law, &c.
When William our Deliverer came,
To heal the Nation's Grievance,
I turn'd the Cat in Pan again,
And swore to him Allegiance:
Old Principles I did revoke,
Set conscience at a distance,
Passive Obedience is a Joke,
A Jest is non-resistance.
And this is Law, &c.
When Royal Anne became our Queen,
Then Church of England's Glory,
Another face of things was seen,
And I became a Tory:
Occasional Conformists base
I Damn'd, and Moderation,
And thought the Church in danger was,
From such Prevarication.
And this is Law, &c.
When George in Pudding time came o'er,
And Moderate Men looked big, Sir,
My Principles I chang'd once more,
And so became a Whig, Sir.
And thus Preferment I procur'd,
From our Faith's great Defender
And almost every day abjur'd
The Pope, and the Pretender.
And this is Law, &c.
The Illustrious House of Hanover,
And Protestant succession,
To these I lustily will swear,
Whilst they can keep possession:
For in my Faith, and Loyalty,
I never once will faulter,
But George, my lawful king shall be,
Except the Times shou'd alter.
And this is Law, &c.0 -
RobD said:
Let me save you the trouble:rottenborough said:
IFS live shortly on their view of manifestos:NickPalmer said:
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
http://www.fsmevents.com/ifselection2017/
Tories: More austerity
Labour: Moon on a stick
"We will build the moon on a stick... and the 1% will pay for it"
0 -
So Tories on 320, Lab/Ld/SNP on 300. Tories could count on Unionists and buy off SNP with the promise of another referendum. So Confidence and supply from SNP?rcs1000 said:Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
Eeek.
It won't happen, she'll get a bigger majority and her extra 2 years.0 -
Ten years into austerity, are a large % saying enough is enough? No more cuts, damn the consequences, hang the bankers etc etc?0
