Although its unlikely I'm beginning to warm to the idea of PM Corbyn, the fall out on here would dwarf that after the referendum, which was pure entertainment.
"I always said it could happen" "I wrote an article saying this would happen" "I said it could never happen, but I backed it"
Foreign interventions are just an excuse for the terrorists. Islamic terrorism was on the rise well before 9/11: USS Cole and the US embassy bombings being examples that killed hundred of people on the most spurious of reasons.
They will always find excuses, whatever we do. It's sad that people aid them by blaming ourselves, rather than their sick ideology.
If a patient has an infection and their treatment from a homeopath isn't working, and you tell the patient that their homeopathic treatment isn't working - are you blaming the homeopath for the infection, or simply pointing out that it isn't doing anything useful to fight the infection?
I don't think it is providing an excuse for Islamist terrorism to question whether Western foreign policy over the past several decades has been effective in making the world a safer place, or instead been counterproductive. It might be time to consider an alternative treatment.
Foreign interventions are just an excuse for the terrorists. Islamic terrorism was on the rise well before 9/11: USS Cole and the US embassy bombings being examples that killed hundred of people on the most spurious of reasons.
They will always find excuses, whatever we do. It's sad that people aid them by blaming ourselves, rather than their sick ideology.
You should watch last nights edition of This Week, the first guest was an expert on terrorism who referenced those events I think.
I doubt I'll get a chance - very busy today. But people who talk about how we're the cause of terrorism, and somehow responsible for it, ignore the earlier attacks against us and other Muslims that predate the attacks.
Foreign interventions are just an excuse for the terrorists. Islamic terrorism was on the rise well before 9/11: USS Cole and the US embassy bombings being examples that killed hundred of people on the most spurious of reasons.
They will always find excuses, whatever we do. It's sad that people aid them by blaming ourselves, rather than their sick ideology.
You should watch last nights edition of This Week, the first guest was an expert on terrorism who referenced those events I think.
No - clearly nothing that has happened in the last 6000 years has had any impact on any kind of violent crime. Murder was already a problem when Cain slew Abel.
There is a certain amount of truth in it though. I am afraid the West is reaping what it has sowed. Read your history and learn my friend.
Without checking, I would say the country that has had most terrorist attacks in Europe in the last three years is France.
What foreign policy mishap caused those?
France has bombed Syria, Lebanon, and has ground troops in Mali.
Not that there is a particularly close relationship between the overall actions of "the West" and which countries are targeted by the Islamists.
What about Belgium? Germany?
The fact that Islamists have been attacking the West since the early 90's (at least - arguably going back to the Rushdie fatwa) and long before recent interventions is conveniently ignored by those who use the Iraq war as a pretext.
Remember Corbyn opposed our interventions in Kosovo and Bosnia to help Muslims. Objectively, he was on the side of Mladic and co, on the side of those who committed Srebenica.
He opposes what the West does not because of its consequences but because it is the West doing it. That is his animating principle.
Check out the video of him blaming us for what happened on 7/7, for instance. Or him opposing any military action against IS to protect the Kurds and Yazidis.
While true, in the heat of an election campaign, I think this misses the point. Corbyn's foreign policy arguments are indefensible if subject to serious scrutiny - but they only have to fool some of the people for a pretty limited amount of time.
It's like the increased spending on everything; it doesn't have to make economic sense if it tickles if it swings a few votes. May has exacerbated the problem by presenting 'hard choices' policies which not only tend to alienate key supporters, but also only seem to have been half thought through. Conversely, Corbyn has offered a massive electoral bribe to a key demographic for Labour which doesn't usually turn out in great numbers.
Massive leads in the polls lead to complacency and arrogance, and that is particularly true when you don't consult more than a handful of people on controversial policies, however well founded you might think them.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Tories having kittens over the latest polling would be far better advised to think about what it means for the May government once it significantly increases its majority. These are not votes won from people who are enthusiastic about her or the Tory programme.
There is a certain amount of truth in it though. I am afraid the West is reaping what it has sowed. Read your history and learn my friend.
Without checking, I would say the country that has had most terrorist attacks in Europe in the last three years is France.
What foreign policy mishap caused those?
France has bombed Syria, Lebanon, and has ground troops in Mali.
Not that there is a particularly close relationship between the overall actions of "the West" and which countries are targeted by the Islamists.
What about Belgium? Germany?
The fact that
He opposes what the West does not because of its consequences but because it is the West doing it. That is his animating principle.
Check out the video of him blaming us for what happened on 7/7, for instance. Or him opposing any military action against IS to protect the Kurds and Yazidis.
My second paragraph points out that there is a poor relationship between actions and retaliation. We all get tarred with the same brush.
Islamists need very little excuse to go on a killing spree, but we did give them a lot more space to operate by removing the secular nationalist leaders who kept the lid on them.
My view is a longer one. The collapse of Communism did the most to bring about the rise of Islamism. Islamism appeals to idealistic people who dislike the crass materialism of western culture, and who have been left behind by it economically and socially. 50 years ago these people would be Communists, now they are Islamists. It is the counter-culture of our times.
I disagree, Islamists don't even know what communism is. Its easy to read too much into a situation.
Islamism and Communism are not the same (Islamism more closely resembles Facism), but both put a systematic philosophy to otherwise poorly focussed anger and grievance. Both appeal for solidarity, community, and against the corrupt secular politics of the Establishment.
The patricians sit in their gilded fortresses while the unruly plebs storm the palaces, twas ever thus.
There is no difference between fascism and communism
Whilst both are political-religions to claim there is no difference is crazy talk.
@Foxinsox - I think your counterculture argument is too western-orientated. A more important cause for the rise of Islamism in the Middle East is the failure of pan-Arab Nationalism. Western foreign policy was hostile to pan-Arab Nationalism. Would the world be safer had pan-Arab Nationalism been successful? I don't know. It would certainly be different and not have so much Islamist terrorism, but who knows what might have happened.
Sure, there are internal reasons. Salafism started in the 18th century as a reaction to what was perceived as Ottoman weakness in the face of the rising power of European nations. The problem that lies at the root of Islamism is that Islam claims to have a comprehensively superior social system, and certainly had a remarkeable run of success in its first century, but since then has been overshadowed by the West.
Islamic countries are a byword for economic, political and social failure, and within societies we see the same. In mixed communities from Egypt to Indonesia to the UK, Muslim communities show stagnant development compared to others. This breeds a lot of resentment. Initially in the post colonial period this was as secular nationalism or communism, but with both these being discredited, Islamism takes the centre stage.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
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Rochdale P, as a Tory voter i fear your analysis is bang on the money . i am very concerned.
A small point but he is not on the money on no. 3. The two million are applications, not registrations, and the equivalent number in 2015 was over five million. Based on last time's experience the two million applications will turn into about 0.75m registrations (since the most common reason for applying is at a new address, which generates a balancing deletion at the old address. And also under IER some applications are rejected as people don't supply the supporting documentation or weren't eligible in the first place).
Corbyn is a fool if he thinks that he can reason with Islamist extremists in the same way that he can have nice, polite conversations with moderate followers of Islam.
Islamist extremists have a frighteningly intense view of the righteousness of their cause, and no tolerance or acceptance of any views other than their own. It's all black and white in their world.
Today's story of how easily these extremists get "triggered".
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
They won't have any money to raise from taxes elsewhere. That is the problem. They have already pledged to sextuple government borrowing, and they have also said they will not raise taxes for most of the population (we know they're lying, but that's their claim).
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise the majority of private school children under those circumstances would have to go back to the state sector, and that most private schools pay business rates anyway. So what they are actually proposing is to massively increase costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset. If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
I'm hoping for Scandinavia myself minus the suicide.
They won't have any money to raise from taxes elsewhere. That is the problem. They have already pledged to sextuple government borrowing, and they have also said they will not raise taxes for most of the population (we know they're lying, but that's their claim).
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise the majority of private school children under those circumstances would have to go back to the state sector, and that most private schools pay business rates anyway. So what they are actually proposing is to massively increase costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset. If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
I'm hoping for Scandinavia myself minus the suicide.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Tories having kittens over the latest polling would be far better advised to think about what it means for the May government once it significantly increases its majority. These are not votes won from people who are enthusiastic about her or the Tory programme.
Indeed, Corbyn's net gains have come from the LDs and UKIP, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labour relative to 2015. May needs to tougher border controls and ban those who go to fight for OSIS in Syria and Libya from returning to the UK next week to shore up her UKIP gains which have fallen a little and change the narrative
Although its unlikely I'm beginning to warm to the idea of PM Corbyn, the fall out on here would dwarf that after the referendum, which was pure entertainment.
Strangely enough so am I. The idea of an anti-American peacenik is becoming increasingly appealing. The most repellant thing I've seen siince this election began was Trump and Netanyahu in a bearhug of mutual admiration and the realisation that only Corbyn can stop the UK joining the hug.
They won't have any money to raise from taxes elsewhere. That is the problem. They have already pledged to sextuple government borrowing, and they have also said they will not raise taxes for most of the population (we know they're lying, but that's their claim).
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise the majority of private school children under those circumstances would have to go back to the state sector, and that most private schools pay business rates anyway. So what they are actually proposing is to massively increase costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset. If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
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Rochdale P, as a Tory voter i fear your analysis is bang on the money . i am very concerned.
Best get to work, but Rochdale is right.
Worth noting too that May is sidelined at the G7 this critical weekend, while Jezza makes the headlines. We will be talking his topics, not Brexit. He continues to have the ball.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
The Brexit vote showed clearly that people are very unhappy with the status quo. Whatever else he is, Corbyn is not that. If you do really want to shale up the establishment and put the elite on the back foot, then there is only one way to vote in the coming general election. It is amusing to see right wing Brexiteers suddenly beginning to contemplate that they may have started something they cannot control. Corbyn will lose handily, there could easily still be a Tory landslide, but the voting public is making it very clear it does not believe the Tories have all the answers. Far from it, in fact. That is going to make the next few years even more interesting than they already promised to be.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
_------;;
Rochdale P, as a Tory voter i fear your analysis is bang on the money . i am very concerned.
Best get to work, but Rochdale is right.
Worth noting too that May is sidelined at the G7 this critical weekend, while Jezza makes the headlines. We will be talking his topics, not Brexit. He continues to have the ball.
She's only at the G7 today, coming back to the UK tonight.
Crap manifesto, no vision, no optimism. Agent Timothy's dementia bomb. Crap campaign, totally uninspiring. TMay not living up to expectations Likely to win small rather than big, which defeats the pronounced object of the election and actively undermines her position in the Brexit negotiations.
All disspiritingg stuff
On the plus side its sunny and a bank holiday weekend. Happy Friday all
The Conservatives are still on course to win, even if the latest polling is accurate and there is no change in the next fortnight.
But when you write TMay not living up to expectations one has to ask what was it in May's at best unremarkable stint at the Home Office, where she cut police numbers but not immigration (or even non-EU immigration) that led to raised expectations?
Did you not see the warning signs in the leadership election where May evinced no great vision but was last minister standing after Gove blew up both Boris's and his own campaigns -- and even then she had to be saved by a backroom stitch-up from an election against Andrea (who?) Leadsom.
And it's too bloody hot. I'm voting for whichever party promises shorter summers.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
"the next few weeks' is actually less than two.
Morning all
I am beginning to get a feeling in my guts that this might be a surprise election result. I had the same with Trump and I ignored it and wasted a lot on Clinton, only managing to unload some of the position in the wee hours of election night.
Mr. Observer, quite. (I accidentally wrote 'quiet' initially, rather giving the impression I had joined the massed ranks of Jezbollah).
Freudian slip.
Just think of the excitement of an all-electric F1 race after Corbyn bans petrol engines. Cars pitting for 2 hours as the battery percentage slowly ticks up...
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
The Brexit vote showed clearly that people are very unhappy with the status quo. Whatever else he is, Corbyn is not that. If you do really want to shale up the establishment and put the elite on the back foot, then there is only one way to vote in the coming general election. It is amusing to see right wing Brexiteers suddenly beginning to contemplate that they may have started something they cannot control. Corbyn will lose handily, there could easily still be a Tory landslide, but the voting public is making it very clear it does not believe the Tories have all the answers. Far from it, in fact. That is going to make the next few years even more interesting than they already promised to be.
+1. Especially as May has now revealed what some already suspected: she is not nearly as well equipped to deal with the challenges of the next few years as many had imagined.
Looking for value post this YouGov poll, IF replicated and IF Cons are doing better in scotland and Wales as we hear then there must be a swing TO Labour in England? Would that be correct?
If so, then seats like Croydon Central, Ealing and Brentford would seem very nice odds against for Labour to take. Derby North 5/1? Labour at 11/10 for Dagenham anyone?
A small point but he is not on the money on no. 3. The two million are applications, not registrations, and the equivalent number in 2015 was over five million. Based on last time's experience the two million applications will turn into about 0.75m registrations (since the most common reason for applying is at a new address, which generates a balancing deletion at the old address. And also under IER some applications are rejected as people don't supply the supporting documentation or weren't eligible in the first place).
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
But we haven't had crippling austerity, we haven't had any austerity at all.
During the last decade governments (of all three main parties) have borrowed and spent over a trillion quid. Another ten billion was borrowed and spent last month.
The UK has been running record current account deficits and hasn't had a single month of trade surplus for almost twenty years.
Its the 'take it from them and give it to me' mentality which is helping Labour.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
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Rochdale P, as a Tory voter i fear your analysis is bang on the money . i am very concerned.
Best get to work, but Rochdale is right.
Worth noting too that May is sidelined at the G7 this critical weekend, while Jezza makes the headlines. We will be talking his topics, not Brexit. He continues to have the ball.
She's only at the G7 today, coming back to the UK tonight.
Foreign interventions are just an excuse for the terrorists. Islamic terrorism was on the rise well before 9/11: USS Cole and the US embassy bombings being examples that killed hundred of people on the most spurious of reasons.
They will always find excuses, whatever we do. It's sad that people aid them by blaming ourselves, rather than their sick ideology.
If a patient has an infection and their treatment from a homeopath isn't working, and you tell the patient that their homeopathic treatment isn't working - are you blaming the homeopath for the infection, or simply pointing out that it isn't doing anything useful to fight the infection?
I don't think it is providing an excuse for Islamist terrorism to question whether Western foreign policy over the past several decades has been effective in making the world a safer place, or instead been counterproductive. It might be time to consider an alternative treatment.
It is exactly an excuse.
And what alternative would you consider? An important factor here is that the extremists are much more able to change tactic than we are: whatever we do, they'll find a reason to be aggrieved and foster discontentment. They are unburdened by any rules.
Take Kosovo. The grumbles there are not that we intervened; but that we intervened too late, and grabbed credit for the victory they were going to get anyway.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
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Rochdale P, as a Tory voter i fear your analysis is bang on the money . i am very concerned.
Best get to work, but Rochdale is right.
Worth noting too that May is sidelined at the G7 this critical weekend, while Jezza makes the headlines. We will be talking his topics, not Brexit. He continues to have the ball.
She's only at the G7 today, coming back to the UK tonight.
They won't have any money to raise from taxes elsewhere. That is the problem. They have already pledged to sextuple government borrowing, and they have also said they will not raise taxes for most of the population (we know they're lying, but that's their claim).
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise the majority of private school children under those circumstances would have to go back to the state sector, and that most private schools pay business rates anyway. So what they are actually proposing is to massively increase costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset. If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
That's not hyperbole, it's common sense.
Venezuela doesn't have a centuries old tradition of democracy; universal comprehensive education; great universities; infrastructure built from Victorian times on., etc A Corbyn premiership would likely do a great deal of damage - particularly when coupled with Brexit - but it's not Venezuela.
Crap manifesto, no vision, no optimism. Agent Timothy's dementia bomb. Crap campaign, totally uninspiring. TMay not living up to expectations Likely to win small rather than big, which defeats the pronounced object of the election and actively undermines her position in the Brexit negotiations.
All disspiritingg stuff
On the plus side its sunny and a bank holiday weekend. Happy Friday all
The Conservatives are still on course to win, even if the latest polling is accurate and there is no change in the next fortnight.
But when you write TMay not living up to expectations one has to ask what was it in May's at best unremarkable stint at the Home Office, where she cut police numbers but not immigration (or even non-EU immigration) that led to raised expectations?
Did you not see the warning signs in the leadership election where May evinced no great vision but was last minister standing after Gove blew up both Boris's and his own campaigns -- and even then she had to be saved by a backroom stitch-up from an election against Andrea (who?) Leadsom.
And it's too bloody hot. I'm voting for whichever party promises shorter summers.
lol. We spend all year wishing we had Mediterranean weather then when it arrives by day three everyone is complaining!
The weather does look set fair for the weekend, except for some rain on Sunday, although suggestions earlier in the week that this weekend might break the record for hottest UK day ever in the month of May now look overblown.
'Corbyn to link terror in the UK to wars abroad' says main BBC headline. Corbyn voted against the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and Libya and also voted against bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40053427
@foxinsox - I've seen it argued that you see a similar victimhood in Christian Orthodox countries that have the inheritance from a Byzantium, continually under siege, or also in the Catholic South of Europe that saw itself left behind by the Protestant North.
Bearing in mind that this sense of victimhood has been used to justify so much that is unjustifiable, I look at China and I worry about their sense of grievance over external aggression in the period ~1840-1950.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
Kendall would probably have started higher and sunk, as people realised there was nothing on offer
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
I really do hope the masses get to listen to what Cobyn thinks now. He'll be squashed like a bug.
Looking for value post this YouGov poll, IF replicated and IF Cons are doing better in scotland and Wales as we hear then there must be a swing TO Labour in England? Would that be correct?
If so, then seats like Croydon Central, Ealing and Brentford would seem very nice odds against for Labour to take. Derby North 5/1? Labour at 11/10 for Dagenham anyone?
There is a small swing to Labour in London but a swing to the Tories in the Midlands yes but generally the higher the UKIP vote the more likely the seat is to go Tory and the lower the UKIP vote the more likely to stay Labour hence Labour could hold Hampstead and win Croydon Central but lose Walsall North and Coventry North West and Dagenham is not safe either
Mr. B, I believe you saw (and derided ) my 6.5 No Safety Car bet.
I think it's astonishing that Vettel is 1.9 to win and Raikkonen 19 (down to 19.5 on Betfair, I put a little on him at 27).
If the Ferrari *is* the fastest car, then 19 for Raikkonen to win each way is worth consideration.
I did. I don't think Raikkonen's odds are particularly tempting - probably just about right, assuming Mercedes don't stay completely flummoxed by the tyres. He's been consistently a bit below par, and Monaco is historically his worst track. I was more wondering if there were any smart plays ahead of tomorrows final practice...
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Although its unlikely I'm beginning to warm to the idea of PM Corbyn, the fall out on here would dwarf that after the referendum, which was pure entertainment.
Strangely enough so am I. The idea of an anti-American peacenik is becoming increasingly appealing.
To all the loonies saying 'but but but Venezuela' (about as realistic as saying a Tory government will turn us into Pinochet's Chile), Venezuela actually did historically very well economically under Chavez despite constant destabilisation from the US and local oligarchs (before Chavez inflation was hitting around 200%), and uniquely, the proceeds of growth were shared with everyone rather than squirreled away in Miami bank accounts. His policies were very moderate and social democratic, not hardcore Socialism. Think Attlee. The collapse of global oil prices leveraged by the Saudis for cynical geopolitical purposes is what has caused the problems, along with the failure to diversify the economy, which has nothing to do with socialism.
As I said last night, it's Crap versus Crap for the Crap cup! Whatever you think about Corbyn, will at least one sane PB Tory (I know there's not many) admit that TMay is totally hapless and hopeless, I.e. Totally Crap!
Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s. And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now. As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise the majority of private school children under those circumstances would have to go back to the state sector, and that most private schools pay business rates anyway. So what they are actually proposing is to massively increase costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset. If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
That's not hyperbole, it's common sense.
Venezuela doesn't have a centuries old tradition of democracy; universal comprehensive education; great universities; infrastructure built from Victorian times on., etc A Corbyn premiership would likely do a great deal of damage - particularly when coupled with Brexit - but it's not Venezuela.
In the unlikely event that May were to be comprehensively rejected, there would at least a question mark over the progress of Brexit.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
To all the loonies saying 'but but but Venezuela' (about as realistic as saying a Tory government will turn us into Pinochet's Chile), Venezuela actually did historically very well economically under Chavez despite constant destabilisation from the US and local oligarchs (before Chavez inflation was hitting around 200%), and uniquely, the proceeds of growth were shared with everyone rather than squirreled away in Miami bank accounts. His policies were very moderate and social democratic, not hardcore Socialism. Think Attlee. The collapse of global oil prices leveraged by the Saudis for cynical geopolitical purposes is what has caused the problems, along with the failure to diversify the economy, which has nothing to do with socialism.
I wouldn't say the collapse of the oil price is leveraged by the Saudis. Fracking and the ability of such wells to stop and start at will has set a roof on oil prices of between $50-60 a barrel.
Sadly Venezuelan oil costs more than that to produce...
As for those saying 'but but Corbyn is saying we can negotiate with ISIS'. Erm... no.
What he will, I believe successfully, elcuidate, is what I have been repeatedly telling the deaf ears of the PB Tories - the fact that our Tory government has colluded with genocidal jihadis in the attempt to turn Libya and Syria into failed states, and breeding grounds for terrorism that would not have otherwise existed.
It'd be a brave argument for the Tories to try and make that the collaboration with jihadis in Syria and Libya has made us safer.
As I have said, beyond the lies and fake news, Tory policy has consistently made us less safe. Corbyn is right to take the fight to the Tories on this issue now that he is guaranteed airtime.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
Labour have been rising slowly in the polls since the start of the campaign.
Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s. And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now. As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!
There is also a big difference between Labour 38% UNS and the reappearance of significant anti-Tory tactical voting in every constituency. We don't have enough evidence to tell the difference, largely because there has so far been little analysis of why the polls are moving as almost no-one expected.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
You must remember majority opinion in the UK (and indeed in Europe) are more sypathetic to the Palestinians who they see as oppressed than the Israelis (particularly under current management) who they see as oppressors.
Corbyn's views are more mainstream -prticularly on the left-than you give them credit for being.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
But we haven't had crippling austerity, we haven't had any austerity at all.
During the last decade governments (of all three main parties) have borrowed and spent over a trillion quid. Another ten billion was borrowed and spent last month.
The UK has been running record current account deficits and hasn't had a single month of trade surplus for almost twenty years.
Its the 'take it from them and give it to me' mentality which is helping Labour.
The issue is inequality and the loss of hope.
A very wise comment, IMO, from AndyJS in another place in February 2016:
" Life was getting noticeably better for ordinary people in Western countries until about 10 years ago. Since then it’s been very mixed, which explains the appeal of people like Trump, Wilders, etc. They wouldn’t have got anywhere if things had continued improving as they did from 1945 to 2005. "
To all the loonies saying 'but but but Venezuela' (about as realistic as saying a Tory government will turn us into Pinochet's Chile), Venezuela actually did historically very well economically under Chavez despite constant destabilisation from the US and local oligarchs (before Chavez inflation was hitting around 200%), and uniquely, the proceeds of growth were shared with everyone rather than squirreled away in Miami bank accounts. His policies were very moderate and social democratic, not hardcore Socialism. Think Attlee. The collapse of global oil prices leveraged by the Saudis for cynical geopolitical purposes is what has caused the problems, along with the failure to diversify the economy, which has nothing to do with socialism.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.
As for those saying 'but but Corbyn is saying we can negotiate with ISIS'. Erm... no.
What he will, I believe successfully, elcuidate, is what I have been repeatedly telling the deaf ears of the PB Tories - the fact that our Tory government has colluded with genocidal jihadis in the attempt to turn Libya and Syria into failed states, and breeding grounds for terrorism that would not have otherwise existed.
It'd be a brave argument for the Tories to try and make that the collaboration with jihadis in Syria and Libya has made us safer.
As I have said, beyond the lies and fake news, Tory policy has consistently made us less safe. Corbyn is right to take the fight to the Tories on this issue now that he is guaranteed airtime.
Bombing the c**p out of Libya and then walking away leaving it in chaos hasn't helped, either. ISIS is setting up there now, and even sensible Tories admit this as a failure.
Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s. And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now. As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!
There is also a big difference between Labour 38% UNS and the reappearance of significant anti-Tory tactical voting in every constituency. We don't have enough evidence to tell the difference, largely because there has so far been little analysis of why the polls are moving as almost no-one expected.
I've a feeling now it's down to the youth vote turning out or not along with the Brexiteers who normally don't bother. A hard 43 versus a soft 38 or a soft 43 versus a hard 38
A further point. The unprecedented manifesto u turn might just be down to far far worse canvass returns than we are aware of at this stage.
PB Tories say not the polls are wrong.
My experience is the Social Care policy was a game changer.
Yet the Tories are still making net gains from Labour the net loss is actually a small movement from Tory to LD. Corbyn's net gains have come from the LDs and to a lesser extent UKIP. The larger net move from UKIP to the Tories gives May her lead
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s. And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now. As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!
There is also a big difference between Labour 38% UNS and the reappearance of significant anti-Tory tactical voting in every constituency. We don't have enough evidence to tell the difference, largely because there has so far been little analysis of why the polls are moving as almost no-one expected.
I've a feeling now it's down to the youth vote turning out or not along with the Brexiteers who normally don't bother. A hard 43 versus a soft 38 or a soft 43 versus a hard 38
To all the loonies saying 'but but but Venezuela' (about as realistic as saying a Tory government will turn us into Pinochet's Chile), Venezuela actually did historically very well economically under Chavez despite constant destabilisation from the US and local oligarchs (before Chavez inflation was hitting around 200%), and uniquely, the proceeds of growth were shared with everyone rather than squirreled away in Miami bank accounts. His policies were very moderate and social democratic, not hardcore Socialism. Think Attlee. The collapse of global oil prices leveraged by the Saudis for cynical geopolitical purposes is what has caused the problems, along with the failure to diversify the economy, which has nothing to do with socialism.
That's one view, I suppose. Yes, Venezuela had deep problems before Chavez (and few people say otherwise). Yet the many years since Chavez took power have seen the country get much worse, and anyone truly believing in democracy should be worried about the recent steps taken by the Maduro government.
Comments
He'd actually laid a clever trap I thought and there it is not just disarmed but snapping shut over him.
"I wrote an article saying this would happen"
"I said it could never happen, but I backed it"
I don't think it is providing an excuse for Islamist terrorism to question whether Western foreign policy over the past several decades has been effective in making the world a safer place, or instead been counterproductive. It might be time to consider an alternative treatment.
While true, in the heat of an election campaign, I think this misses the point. Corbyn's foreign policy arguments are indefensible if subject to serious scrutiny - but they only have to fool some of the people for a pretty limited amount of time.
It's like the increased spending on everything; it doesn't have to make economic sense if it tickles if it swings a few votes. May has exacerbated the problem by presenting 'hard choices' policies which not only tend to alienate key supporters, but also only seem to have been half thought through.
Conversely, Corbyn has offered a massive electoral bribe to a key demographic for Labour which doesn't usually turn out in great numbers.
Massive leads in the polls lead to complacency and arrogance, and that is particularly true when you don't consult more than a handful of people on controversial policies, however well founded you might think them.
Tories having kittens over the latest polling would be far better advised to think about what it means for the May government once it significantly increases its majority. These are not votes won from people who are enthusiastic about her or the Tory programme.
Islamic countries are a byword for economic, political and social failure, and within societies we see the same. In mixed communities from Egypt to Indonesia to the UK, Muslim communities show stagnant development compared to others. This breeds a lot of resentment. Initially in the post colonial period this was as secular nationalism or communism, but with both these being discredited, Islamism takes the centre stage.
Mr. Observer, quite. (I accidentally wrote 'quiet' initially, rather giving the impression I had joined the massed ranks of Jezbollah).
"One of the few positives of PM Corbyn is the lesson they would learn."
They would learn no lessons at all. If it proved a disaster, it would be because of ...
!. Brexit
2. The media.
3. Enemies within.
4. The Americans
5. Mr Jones, the farmer.
The remedy would be more powers for Corbyn to scourge the nay-sayers.
Islamist extremists have a frighteningly intense view of the righteousness of their cause, and no tolerance or acceptance of any views other than their own. It's all black and white in their world.
Today's story of how easily these extremists get "triggered".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40055372
Greek goddess statue removed in Bangladesh after Islamist outcry
The statue is being removed to maintain peace, said its creator Mrinal Haque.
Analysts say this is just a sign of the rising tension between Islamic conservatism and liberal values in Bangladesh.
EDIT:typos
Will be I interesting to see how the narrative has changed
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
That's not hyperbole, it's common sense.
Worth noting too that May is sidelined at the G7 this critical weekend, while Jezza makes the headlines. We will be talking his topics, not Brexit. He continues to have the ball.
Any reflections on Monaco ?
But when you write TMay not living up to expectations one has to ask what was it in May's at best unremarkable stint at the Home Office, where she cut police numbers but not immigration (or even non-EU immigration) that led to raised expectations?
Did you not see the warning signs in the leadership election where May evinced no great vision but was last minister standing after Gove blew up both Boris's and his own campaigns -- and even then she had to be saved by a backroom stitch-up from an election against Andrea (who?) Leadsom.
And it's too bloody hot. I'm voting for whichever party promises shorter summers.
I am beginning to get a feeling in my guts that this might be a surprise election result. I had the same with Trump and I ignored it and wasted a lot on Clinton, only managing to unload some of the position in the wee hours of election night.
Lab most seats available at 12.5 on BF
Just think of the excitement of an all-electric F1 race after Corbyn bans petrol engines.
Cars pitting for 2 hours as the battery percentage slowly ticks up...
I think it's astonishing that Vettel is 1.9 to win and Raikkonen 19 (down to 19.5 on Betfair, I put a little on him at 27).
If the Ferrari *is* the fastest car, then 19 for Raikkonen to win each way is worth consideration.
https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/867887951409229826
https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/867891785133109249
If so, then seats like Croydon Central, Ealing and Brentford would seem very nice odds against for Labour to take. Derby North 5/1? Labour at 11/10 for Dagenham anyone?
A small point but he is not on the money on no. 3. The two million are applications, not registrations, and the equivalent number in 2015 was over five million. Based on last time's experience the two million applications will turn into about 0.75m registrations (since the most common reason for applying is at a new address, which generates a balancing deletion at the old address. And also under IER some applications are rejected as people don't supply the supporting documentation or weren't eligible in the first place).
Ah, ok. Thanks
I feel something like seasick. Life axioms dissolving in front of my eyes.
Tories need to stop being immensely crap, and soon.
Overly simplistic analysis that is timed poorly.
During the last decade governments (of all three main parties) have borrowed and spent over a trillion quid. Another ten billion was borrowed and spent last month.
The UK has been running record current account deficits and hasn't had a single month of trade surplus for almost twenty years.
Its the 'take it from them and give it to me' mentality which is helping Labour.
The issue is inequality and the loss of hope.
I am still waiting for my owl.
And what alternative would you consider? An important factor here is that the extremists are much more able to change tactic than we are: whatever we do, they'll find a reason to be aggrieved and foster discontentment. They are unburdened by any rules.
Take Kosovo. The grumbles there are not that we intervened; but that we intervened too late, and grabbed credit for the victory they were going to get anyway.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/20/article-2662719-1EEE326200000578-499_634x359.jpg
A Corbyn premiership would likely do a great deal of damage - particularly when coupled with Brexit - but it's not Venezuela.
The weather does look set fair for the weekend, except for some rain on Sunday, although suggestions earlier in the week that this weekend might break the record for hottest UK day ever in the month of May now look overblown.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40053427
Bearing in mind that this sense of victimhood has been used to justify so much that is unjustifiable, I look at China and I worry about their sense of grievance over external aggression in the period ~1840-1950.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
I don't think Raikkonen's odds are particularly tempting - probably just about right, assuming Mercedes don't stay completely flummoxed by the tyres. He's been consistently a bit below par, and Monaco is historically his worst track.
I was more wondering if there were any smart plays ahead of tomorrows final practice...
(edit... 27 was rather good, though.)
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons
Anyway today is 'yuge' for PM elect Corbyn... if he beats expectations on Marr at 7pm then that'll be a big hurdle.
If so best of luck to you and him and hope for some campaign reports.
https://twitter.com/davehill/status/867985181868662784
And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now.
As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ftse250&spf=1495784246273
Neither the stock markets or the betting markets are expecting anything but 'strong and stable'.
Sadly Venezuelan oil costs more than that to produce...
What he will, I believe successfully, elcuidate, is what I have been repeatedly telling the deaf ears of the PB Tories - the fact that our Tory government has colluded with genocidal jihadis in the attempt to turn Libya and Syria into failed states, and breeding grounds for terrorism that would not have otherwise existed.
It'd be a brave argument for the Tories to try and make that the collaboration with jihadis in Syria and Libya has made us safer.
As I have said, beyond the lies and fake news, Tory policy has consistently made us less safe. Corbyn is right to take the fight to the Tories on this issue now that he is guaranteed airtime.
Corbyn's views are more mainstream -prticularly on the left-than you give them credit for being.
My experience is the Social Care policy was a game changer.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
" Life was getting noticeably better for ordinary people in Western countries until about 10 years ago. Since then it’s been very mixed, which explains the appeal of people like Trump, Wilders, etc. They wouldn’t have got anywhere if things had continued improving as they did from 1945 to 2005. "
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.
Just like Corbyn wouldn't win the leadership election - he was just there to widen the debate.
Let's hope people are wiser this time.
He definitely spoke/voted against the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Venezuelan_constitutional_crisis