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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Chris said:

    Hmm. The Tories are also reliant on former UKIP supporters. Can they necessarily be relied on to turn out, now that Brexit is a fait accompli? Didn't UKIP attract a fair amount of support from people who didn't usually vote?
    It is the voters who voted UKIP in 2015 that are moving
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn expected to say "we must be brave enough to admit the 'war on terror' is simply not working" in speech tomorrow
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-5)
    LAB: 34% (+5)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-2)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)

    Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
    Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.

    Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
    Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
    You forgot free tuition fees, and no more foreign wars. Heck, I am tempted myself ;-)
    I'm not.
    Tempted to vote Con in NED ?

    Or would that get you expelled from the local LibDems ?
    I'll be voting Lib Dem..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    10 seconds :o

    Hopefully not hyping this too much.. titters.

    Brave of Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Hyped out of all proportion....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Oh dear, Corbyn you idiot.
  • SeanT said:

    Just been told I am now - subject to agreement - the Times Travel Section's official "Luxury Correspondent", starting this weekend (a piece on Pantelleria)

    There will be a weekly spread on mega-mega luxurious travel, and the Times editor wants me to be the main writer, if I can find the time.

    Should I agree? What do you think?

    No
    Sounds like a shit job -all that top quality food and well toned fellow hotel guests-cant think of anything more boring.

    Give me a Travelodge off the M62 and an on-sight Harvester any day of the week
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,042
    That'll kibosh the Labour revival, I should expect.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-5)
    LAB: 34% (+5)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-2)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)

    Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
    Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.

    Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
    Don't know about the campaign - hard to judge I think.
    But the manifesto has gone down well.

    It also helps that Corbyn isn't a bad speaker and actually when people hear him he's a lot better than the right wing press have made out. Reread this from Peter hitchens on Corbyn - I think there is something to his style that some people quite like.

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/my-evening-with-jeremy-corbyn.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    justin124 said:

    SeanT said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-5)
    LAB: 34% (+5)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-2)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)

    Wow - that would probably be a small, maybe even reduced majority for TM right?
    Baxtered, with Scotch, it gives TMay a majority of exactly 50.

    She'd be damaged, but she would survive. Nick Timothy would be looking for a new job, maybe waiting tables somewhere.
    On a universal swing it would be a Tory majority of circa 30 - but Labour would lose just 6 seats and all enjoy first time incumbency . Possibly no Labour losses at all.
    The Tory swing is lowest in London, where their earliest target seats are anyway, biggest in the Midlands where they have most marginals to target
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    Christ on a bike. Corbyn is a f******* disgrace.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Scott_P said:
    I thought Sean said May would get 150 maj
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Tomorrow Jeremy Corbyn is going to attack Theresa May for being soft on terror.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Blimey!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381
    Labour on 38%?! Surely not.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    May and Corbyn are very lucky to be facing each other.

    That's the most hilarious thing about the campaign.
    It's our equivalent of Hillary versus The Donald.
    May = Hillary
    Corbyn = Trump
    Rubbish, May's base is more enthusiastic about her than Hillary's and she has no emailgate, if anything Nuttall is Trump, Corbyn is Sanders
    May's base stopped being enthusiastic about her after that budget.

    LOL at Nuttall being Trump. Trump the most relevant thing about the 2016 campaign. No one cares about Paul Nuttall now (or UKIP).

    Sanders is actually very popular in America. Corbyn, well, isn't very popular here. Sanders is also more pragmatic that Corbyn in his approach - he'll sit down and talk to those who disagree with him on quite a few things.
    Did it, the fact she was well over 40% in every poll even then hardly suggests that and that was pre u turn.

    Nuttall's agenda is basically Trump's, Corbyn's similar to that Sanders put forward
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    SeanT said:

    midwinter said:

    SeanT said:

    midwinter said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.

    Hasn't private provision increased more under Labour?

    Oh wait, that was the New Labour (war criminal) party. My mistake. :smiley:
    Yes, although I don't think that's 'privatisation.'

    Many on the Left saw it that way though.

    I remember them being critical of private provision under New Labour.
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-5)
    LAB: 34% (+5)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-2)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)

    If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.

    How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
    It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.

    Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
    And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
    Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.

    Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.
    Impossible to say. A Bullingdon Boy might be a better opponent for Corbyn...
    With the greatest of respect this is bollocks. Assuming Cameron had become PM under the same circumstances as May in 2016 with no Lib Dem or Ukip opposition worthy of the name he'd be miles clear of where Dementia Tax Dolly is at the moment. Fuck me IDS would give May a run for her money. That's how poor she's been.
    Utter rubbish, it is the fact that May has won over UKIP voters Cameron won (who Cameron could never win) and added them to the 37% he won that has taken her to 42%, 45%, even 47% in some polls
    The same Ukip voters who would still be moving to the Tories regardless of leader post Brexit. But keep telling yourself how wonderful she is. As your inept and spineless heroine spunks a 25 point lead in a couple of weeks.....
  • Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, Corbyn you idiot.

    Gloves off now! Corbyn has blown it...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    RobD said:
    where the f*** are those 38% of people, that's what I want to know. who is voting Labour now that didn't in 2015?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    midwinter said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.

    Hasn't private provision increased more under Labour?

    Oh wait, that was the New Labour (war criminal) party. My mistake. :smiley:
    Yes, although I don't think that's 'privatisation.'

    Many on the Left saw it that way though.

    I remember them being critical of private provision under New Labour.
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-5)
    LAB: 34% (+5)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-2)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)

    If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.

    How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
    It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.

    Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
    And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
    Except he wasn't when he was leader.

    In fact he managed to lose the 2016 local elections to Labour.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Scott_P said:
    Other on 6% - SNP & Plaid must, realistically, be on more than 5%. Taking account of Speaker, independents and minor parties, effectively suggests that Greens now polling zero.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited May 2017

    Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week

    The trend is clear and continuing , perhaps the next Yougov poll will be better for the Conservatives as it seems to consist of mostly pb Tories
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Quelle surprise. He couldn't resist, could he?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:
    I Baxter that as Con majority 26.

    Post Manchester bomb too.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:
    Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck. This is it. Hung Parliament. OMFG.

    May will be thrown out. Prime Minister Hammond or Boris Johnson?
    NOW do you believe me
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    edited May 2017
    Thankfully 'parking tanks on the lawn' has been shot in the head and buried in an unmarked grave, but I feel 'mile wide and inch deep' still has loads of traction (unlike the tanks).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    SeanT said:

    This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN

    She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".

    Calm down. Corbyn has just blamed UK foreign policy for the attack. Labour are done.
  • Thank God, the panic on here is a sight to continue. Please let it continue, because it creates great betting opportunities.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    RobD said:
    Notably not as strident as the more radical stuff you hear, but over the top right winger as Guido is, I do think he nails the point here

    It uses the classic “but” technique preferred by Stop the War types: condemn the terrorists, say they are responsible, then add a “but” and talk about the West.

    It's very clever. A lot of people are very against the interventions of recent decades, and this attempts to baby step the way to an even firmer 'we are also to blame' stance.

    It doesn't work on me, and I opposed Iraq (I've been more conflicted on other examples), but once again I worry that people will hear it and just go 'Well, at least he's different from the rest, and he's not really blaming us'

    He's still got savvy advisers - either they think they are in serious trouble and they need a hail mary and this is it, or they've tested it and it plays well (even if only to shore up what they have).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster

    Indeed, the Tory voteshare not much changed, the Labour voteshare mainly increasing from 'others'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week

    Don't worry, Corbyn's doing his best to get it back to a 15% lead as quickly as possible.
  • Whoops, typed that in a hurry...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2017
    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,042
    Corbyn has just destroyed his surge exactly at the point of maximum, and even historic, opportunity, for him, I think.

    Both a brilliant and awful campaign by Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867848549127553024

    But the fieldwork was after the attacks??
  • SeanT said:

    This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN

    She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".

    Won't happen...
  • Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    SeanT said:

    Rhubarb said:

    Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.

    It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.
    You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.
    I never knew that, for one.
    So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?
    Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.
    The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.
    They are half right.... more like because the private contractors model is annoying and vague!
    It is a rather odd situation and some bizzare elements, however at the same time also extremely efficient. No other care is funded all you can eat per patient; instead they are funded per contact. Those that get handed back to the health board and run centrally are much more costly per patient and are quick to be given back out to anyone wishing to take the contract on.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    O.M.G.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Scott_P said:
    Christ, I never thought it would get that low. I get the true believers, I get the Tory haters and the Labour loyalists, but I just do not get how Labour could, even in a poll, be so much higher than poor Ed M got in the election.

    Corbynism has defeated me, I cannot predict or explain its extent of appeal.

    Unless the polls shift away again to regularly back into the low tens at least, I'm changing my prediction to Labour 195-215.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN

    She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".

    The tory press need to get on board and Quick.

    I did mention the day of the tory manifesto,people didn't support it in a phone in and it went down like a bucket of sick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border control
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!

    Squeaky bum time doesn't even begin to describe it :p
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    I can't equate those supplementaries with the headline intention.

    Also, how did it happen before Manchester? I thought the Times said it was Wednesday-Thursday!

    Odd.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    May is going to win easily. Her problems begin on 9th June, when delivery has to begin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    From The Times

    The shift comes after a hostile reception to manifesto proposals forcing elderly people who need care at home to pay a potentially unlimited sum from their estate. After four days of pressure Mrs May changed the policy on Monday and announced a cap. The drop in Tory support appears to have come before the terrorist attack on Monday.

    At the start of the election campaign Mrs May had personal approval ratings of 10 per cent. They dropped into negative territory for the first time on Monday, reaching minus 7 per cent, before returning to plus 1 per cent in yesterday’s poll. Mr Corbyn’s ratings began on minus 42 per cent and peaked on Monday at minus 11 per cent, dropping to minus 16 per cent yesterday. The parties are almost neck and neck in terms of how favourably they are regarded, with Labour on minus 8 per cent and the Conservatives on minus 7 per cent. YouGov interviewed 2,052 adults on Wednesday and yesterday.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.

    Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.

    Even Farage says that.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,855
    If 56% want the death penalty I don't think Corbyn is about to win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited May 2017
    Of course if we all believed Yougov 2 weeks out Ed Miliband would be PM and Scotland would have voted Yes and Remain won EU ref, May would still be PM even on this poll, just Corbyn is squeezing the minor party vote
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    HYUFD said:

    Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster

    Indeed, the Tory voteshare not much changed, the Labour voteshare mainly increasing from 'others'
    That disparity beween leadership figures also - poll possibly an outlier?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Those supplementaries are fantastic for May.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    Are people still confident that the Tory lead is large enough that they needn't worry about the accuracy of the polls?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week

    OUTLIER KLAXON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    SeanT said:

    That's the only bit of good news for Tories. Without Manchester, I wonder if Labour could have actually won this. The momentum is real, the manifesto was appalling.
    It was literally the world's biggest unforced error. Theresa May is just rubbish at politics. Crosby must be going insane right now. His winning message has been ruined by Timothy's​ stupidity.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.

    Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.

    Even Farage says that.
    Yes, this isn't a particularly radical POV.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Peak dementia tax, mostly before the events in Manchester too

    Kantar-TNS poll

    Westminster voting intention:

    Con 42% (-5) Lab 34% (+5) LD 9% (+1) UKIP 4% (-2) Greens 4% (nc)

    Fieldwork 18th - 22nd May

    Outlier Klaxon!!
    Outlier klaxon has been going off a lot lately.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    There is no fucking way 35% of British voters will vote Corbyn, forget the polls IT WONT HAPPEN
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.

    Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.

    But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.

    Tory majority 30-50 at best.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    We all people like free sweets, but the yougov labour numbers indicate some kind of insanity is effecting over 1/3 of the population.

    Sure hope Crosby is playing rope a dope.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    kle4 said:

    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.

    Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.

    But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.

    Tory majority 30-50 at best.
    The YouGov is yesterday/today, I think.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!

    Bring on the Coalition of Chaos. All it needs is a little tactical voting.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    Mortimer said:

    Those supplementaries are fantastic for May.
    I seem to remember someone called the US presidential election for Clinton on the basis of responses to questions like those in exit polls.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    SeanT said:

    Rhubarb said:

    Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.

    It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.
    You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.
    I never knew that, for one.
    So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?
    Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.
    The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.
    They are half right.... more like because the private contractors model is annoying and vague!
    It is a rather odd situation and some bizzare elements, however at the same time also extremely efficient. No other care is funded all you can eat per patient; instead they are funded per contact. Those that get handed back to the health board and run centrally are much more costly per patient and are quick to be given back out to anyone wishing to take the contract on.
    I know.... I work for one! The problem is defining what is expected from GPs. The contract isn't specific.
    Also most mental health and community services like district nurses are paid per contract, but yeah your general gist is dead right.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster

    Yes, that's a given, but in which direction?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!

    If Nick Timothy isn't hanging from a Downing Street window tomorrow morning then Theresa May is a bigger idiot than she seems. The man is a walking disaster. His policies are all crap and he wants to raise taxes on the Tory base. Fucking get this guy out of our party before he ruins us.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    New thread....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    HYUFD said:

    The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border control
    It's been said they would do that for weeks. Either it is not working or it is too late. The details are clear - people give May much higher scores than Corbyn, so she might well outperform the headline VI figure, but it won't be a wipeout for Labour even if she does, unless it is by almost doubling it.

    Any attempt by the Tories to bring out the security stuff now will look desperate and a distraction technique, they waited too long.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,286
    The Conservative majority will be over 100. I have spoken.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203

    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.

    Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.

    Even Farage says that.
    Yes, this isn't a particularly radical POV.
    Bold to say this so close to Manchester though.
    My gut tells me could be disastrous but I don't really know.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    SeanT said:

    If TMay gets under a 30 seat majority, or actually loses that majority, then she will be gone within a few days. She will be OVER.

    And she was Lady of all She Surveyed ten days ago. Incredible.

    Cometh the hour, cometh Boris.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    If TMay gets under a 30 seat majority, or actually loses that majority, then she will be gone within a few days. She will be OVER.

    And she was Lady of all She Surveyed ten days ago. Incredible.

    Because she didn't do anything. The second she opens her mouth it goes tits up. Ever since she became Pm. Name one good, well presented articulate policy since she became PM. Just one.....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    There is a comic side to all of this. Somewhere.

    Sean,have you worked out how much in extra taxes you will have to pay with a labour win ;-)

    Remember brexit and trump ;-)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    When Labour were at 25% they were too high . When they reached 30% pb Tories said that was too high . Then they hit 34/35% , outliers they all cried . Now it is 38% a net swing now albeit a small one since 2015 from Con to Lab
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.

    Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.

    But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.

    Tory majority 30-50 at best.
    Yes, not everybody, but it was the general consenus.

    YouGov poll fieldwork was after the event (done on Wednesday/Thursday).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    Will YouGov 5% Con Lead in 2017 be remembered like the ICM 5% Lab lead in 1997?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,042

    The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!

    Bring on the Coalition of Chaos. All it needs is a little tactical voting.
    If it wasn't for Corbyn's mistake tonight, that might have happened.
  • Now that Mr. Corbyn has openly attacked British foreign policy, he has opened the doors for the Conservatives and others to attack his and his colleagues records on security and terror. Let's see what happens over the next few days... No need to panic!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Here we go again, headline VI versus leader ratings.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    SeanT said:

    May is going to win easily. Her problems begin on 9th June, when delivery has to begin.

    There is now a significant chance she will not get a majority. The trend is pretty blood clear.

    What a fuck up by the Tories. Blowing the whole show. Nick Timothy will be gone. He has to go. Even if she wins. The man who threw away a 150 seat majority, and a chance to erase Labour for a decade or more.

    She is in grave danger, as well.

    The worst part is that he gave it away for a policy none was asking about. Madness.
  • So, let's see.

    - We are told that General Election campaigns don't usually change things, that people have made their mind up way before
    - In the last election, we were told that the best PM score was a more reliable metric than the raw party political stuff. May leads by a country mile.
    - There is plenty of anecdotal data to show that JC is toxic with the WWC
    - The Labour Uncut piece stated that, in places like the NE, canvassers were reporting that 1 in 3 2015 Labour voters were deserting the party. This from the same guy who stated a week before the 2015 GE that Labour was in trouble based on what could be gleaned from the early postal votes.
    - Older people tend to vote and they remember the IRA etc etc.

    Against that, we have the polls. If your Momentum people have decided that influencing the betting odds can change the narrative, then they were surely have worked out that getting yourself up with a polling company (which, let's be honest, they are desperate to have people sign up for them) also makes sense. I would bet money (and I have) that this is what is happening here.

    You know what has been the number one topic I have found has come up time and time again post-Manchester? Immigration. As in "we let these people in, it is unbelievable", swiftly followed by "And Corbyn (and the Lib Dems) want to let in more!"

    If anyone wants to have a bet it will be a Hung Parliament, please, please, please get in touch.....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442

    When Labour were at 25% they were too high . When they reached 30% pb Tories said that was too high . Then they hit 34/35% , outliers they all cried . Now it is 38% a net swing now albeit a small one since 2015 from Con to Lab

    Do the Lib Dems believe Labour are at 38% then?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    NEW THREAD

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463

    May is going to win easily. Her problems begin on 9th June, when delivery has to begin.

    If she does then all the Corbynitas will be convinced that the election was somehow 'stolen'.

    It will be very difficult for the moderates to get back control of the Labour party.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705

    From The Times

    The shift comes after a hostile reception to manifesto proposals forcing elderly people who need care at home to pay a potentially unlimited sum from their estate. After four days of pressure Mrs May changed the policy on Monday and announced a cap. The drop in Tory support appears to have come before the terrorist attack on Monday.

    At the start of the election campaign Mrs May had personal approval ratings of 10 per cent. They dropped into negative territory for the first time on Monday, reaching minus 7 per cent, before returning to plus 1 per cent in yesterday’s poll. Mr Corbyn’s ratings began on minus 42 per cent and peaked on Monday at minus 11 per cent, dropping to minus 16 per cent yesterday. The parties are almost neck and neck in terms of how favourably they are regarded, with Labour on minus 8 per cent and the Conservatives on minus 7 per cent. YouGov interviewed 2,052 adults on Wednesday and yesterday.

    It sounds rather as though the Tory lead would have been down to zero by now if it hadn't been for the terrorist attack.

    What will happen when people's attention returns to the campaign?
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    SeanT said:

    This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN

    She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".

    Tories are on 43% and that is a fantastic score. It looks like it has barely changed. Its very hard to rationally expect it to be much higher, 45% possibly. UKIP have collapsed and the LDs have disappeared. Labour are of course bribing the electorate with their own money perhaps that is where the LDs have disappeared to.
    Corbyn is reverting to type and waving the surrender flag to islamic terrorism aimed at winning hegemony over the west and being left alone to pursue its evil policies (too many to list). Perhaps thats what voters want. Personally it disgusts me and I hope he is shafted by it.
This discussion has been closed.