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Shoeburyness on Southend on Sea (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 25, Labour 11, Independents 10, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Liberal Democrats 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2016): Independent (Assenheim) 728 (29%), Conservative 607 (24%), Independent (Chalk) 527 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 309 (12%), Labour 236 (9%), Green Party 57 (2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (2%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 39,348 (42%), LEAVE 54,522 (58%) on a turnout of 73%) Candidates duly nominated: Anne Chalk (Ind), Paul Hill (Green), Val Jarvis (Con), Maggie Kelly (Lab), Edward McNally (UKIP), Gavin Spencer (Lib Dem) Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 14°C Estimate: Too close to call (Ind 36%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 11%, Lab 11%, Green 1%)
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Then it got canned by some.....
Your comment is here
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1583124/#Comment_1583124
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/867809785575591937
The kids have decided this is the Manchester song;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPgEgaPk62M
How about:
I know a lovely old toe-rag obliging and noblesse
Kindly, charming shag from Shoeburyness
My given name is Dickie
I come from Billericay
I thought you'd never guess
Ian Dury has much the better rhyme for Shoeburyness.
#BritishThreatLevel
(Now I'll wait to be embarrassed by a mega Tory lead in a poll this evening....)
www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-blurts-out-classified-info-again-worrying-pentagon-officials/amp
And this is only what's coming out. Just wait until he is gone and the tell all books come out.
This macho political posturing is so tiresome, but I have to say Angela Merkel does her fair share, in a more subtle way of course.
The PM staying well out of it.
I suspect that the media focus is disproportionately on the Tories' failings (real or perceived) because, as with the 2015 campaign, it's being warped by the opinion polls.
Nobody takes seriously the notion of anything other than a Conservative majority, so Labour is largely ignored (except when it does something unintentionally hilarious, such as when its shadow cabinet members foul up primary school level arithmetic on national television.) What pronouncements it does manage to get noticed are long lists of goodies that the public likes the sound of, which then fail to be subjected to proper scrutiny as to their gargantuan cost because the hacks are devoting most of their attention to the only party that they believe is capable of winning.
Under those circumstances, the closer the opinion polls get, the better for the Tories - to encourage people to think more seriously about the prospect of a Corbyn-led Government, as well as to help make sure that the Conservative vote is well-motivated.
You'd be hard pressed to do anything other than congratulate Mike and Robert on the site.
https://twitter.com/aclu/status/867814267768250368
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/867819094887759873
I thought that was an excellent speech by Donald Trump and long overdue. The juvenile tittering from some of the other Leaders was beyond childish and not a good look.
Obama.
But hey, if an 80s music reference isn't enough to get your first acknowledged, I refuse to play anymore. I'm taking my ball home....
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867698914014765056
Blair's Labour decided to make hunting into a totemic issue, they shouldn't be surprised that those they sneered at now want to fight back.
Maybe The Sun commissioned yesterdays poll.
Wait until the weekend, I've got an awesome pop music reference lined up.
It's a bit like Corbyn not singing the national anthem -- the reason that's such a big deal is not just because of the national anthem issue itself, it's about what it says to the public about Corbyn as a person generally, and the prism through which they view his stances on other issues.
(I will add that I'm still expecting the Tories to win the election with an increased majority, just in case anyone is planning to quote this post back at me in a few weeks!)
You'd be better off drinking unfermented cold-pressed grape juice.
Meanwhile, those medics (25% of GPs?) who are addicted to heroin aren't fine life-lovers but smackheads and junkies, pathetic people without the intelligence or drive to find something less one-dimensional to enjoy.
The question is whether it will be the Red or Blue Kippers that return. The recent uptick in Labour's polling coincides with the continued collapse of UKIP and if they're the ones that return to Nuttall then Labour could go back sub-30.
When they have the ballot paper in front if them, May or Corbyn is the only question. The stark reality will hit home.
https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/867828024267374592
one of my sons, not very political at all starts talking politics with me tonight.
Tells me he did an on line quiz and it says he is 80% Labour - I said, oh you voting for Corbyn then?
"Nah" he says," the bloke is a fucking idiot."
Mind you my son was under the impression that Tony Blair was a tory - see, he really would fit into todays Labour party :-)
She's a fascinating political bellwether, actually. She's very well-educated and has worked for the civil service - but she basically almost always votes for the party with the leader she most likes. She's a salutary reminder that most of my over-analysis is about things which most voters pay almost no heed of.
But she does notice a vote on fox hunting. She's not even particularly animal-rightsy, it's just something which instinctively feels very wrong to her.
You think 25% of GP's/medics are addicted to heroin?
Really?
I don't find that believable.
The lyrics to his song "Hey, Hey, Take Me Away" tell it how it actually was.
Meanwhile his song "Spasticus Autisticus" got banned by the BBC during the UN's International Year of Disabled Persons, for describing what it is really like having some kinds of disability, as perceived by someone who had been disabled since childhood. So much for "empowerment" and "inclusion".
So yes, let's hear it for Ian Dury.
Medical meetings are disappointingly dry nowadays. The new Puritanism...
The days when an alcoholic was defined as a man who drank more than his doctor are long gone. Harder drugs are even rarer, though I did work with a dizepam addict some years ago.
UKIP Manifesto 2017
FOREWORD
Hit and miss. Arguing they are ahead of the curve, politically, but ‘guard dog’s of Brexit’ is just a stupid phrase, mentioning they have been seen as racist seems like unnecessary calling attention to it. Amusing referencing that TMay campaigned for Remain.
INTRODUCTION
Seems to go against the foreword, saying the policies not developed to capture imagination (though they hope it will) even though foreword was about being bold and radical, things that capture imagination.
11bn a year more for NHS – after 4 manifestos, I forget how much each promises, is this more than the others?
Why is a hospital ship one of top ten priorities? Good or bad policy, is that a top ten policy?
I do like that the main priorities are listed unambiguously at the front.
BREXIT BRITAIN THE KEY TESTS
Not sure how they can be sure that unless their personal tests are met the public won’t get what they voted for, but whatever, the tests are clear and easy to understand.
Repealing a ‘little known convention’ eh? One for the core vote then, since no one else will have heard of it.
Loads on fishery policy.
SOUND NATIONAL FINANCES
Upfront promise on savings for each household per year.
No VAT on women’s sanitary products- someone’s been keeping up with tax complaints in the news
“When economic conditions allow, we will restore the personal allowance to those earning over £100,000” - when conditions allow, eh?
Women can retire at 60 but not men I see – misogynists!
“We will support deficit reduction schedules put forward by the next government and vigorously oppose unnecessary spending plans” - another one of those instances where one person wrote lines presuming, however unlikely, that the party writing would be in government, and someone else wrote a line recognizing they won’t be.
BACKING BUSINESS
Referring to other party leaders, which Tories did not. Even references Gordon Brown!
All pretty standard stuff, support small business etc. ‘tighten up’ rules on zero hours contracts and limit their use.
CREATING COASTAL ENTERPRISE ZONES
What first attracted UKIP to a whole section on coastal seaside towns that are often big leave voting areas?
SOLVING BRITAIN’S HOUSING SHORTAGE
Well, they’re right about housing situation being longstanding, and despite promise to be bold and radical, are pitching as the realistic ones with housing building plans.
DEFENDING OUR NHS
LDs almost get a mention via ‘Coalition’.
‘International rather than a NATIONAL health service’ – the capital letters make the point extra strong
Big spending, more GPs and nurses, could be pretty much any party’s policies. Not saying here how it would be funded.
Social care to be assimilated into the NHS
Royal commission on way forward.
Waiting times cut from 18 weeks to 28 days?!
Elsewhere in this manifesto we condemn alien practices that oppress women, but we are not blind to our own failings. The ‘lad culture,’ which treats young women as sex objects and the ‘red circle of shame’ in celebrity magazines that hold women to unattainable levels of physical perfection are just two examples. Boys too are increasingly developing eating disorders and body image issues
Focus on veterans
A BRIGHTER FUTURE FOR OUR NEXT GENERATION
‘Political interference in education has failed children’ – so here’s how we will interfere.
Grammar schools, KS1 testing, sex education. Not abolishing all tuition fees, but some.
CARING FOR YOUNG CHILDREN
This is a typical outcome of policy-making done via a ‘bidding war,’ instead of being thought through. In this case, Labour and the Conservatives have jockeyed for position to see who can offer the highest number of free childcare hours for the youngest children, without considering the unintended consequences, or what else in the system might need to change. - I…actually agree.
MEETING OUR RESPONSIBIBILITIES TO THE ELDERLY AND THE DISABLED
Everyone but Tories are going after the grey vote. This one actually explains the triple lock, where I don’t recall if the others did.
Uh oh, formatting error, different text sizes in the same bullet point section.
Zero hours again. Bedroom tax.
Tough but not too tough on benefits, which is a tough line to sell.
FAIR, BALANCED MIGRATION
Timeline of statements from other parties and their policy failures on immigration. Very namedroppy ‘Senior Labour parliamentarian Frank Field’ happy to be mentioned.
Is net migration to 0 really a good idea?!
Oddly vague at times for their most critical section, in terms of differentiation.
BRITAIN UNITED UNDER ONE LAW FOR ALL
Heavily against multiculturalism, as expected. FGM, burqa ban (niqab ban too). Oddly pre-empting complaints in the text ‘suggestions ukip is undermining liberty with this policy are absurd’.
POLICING, PRISON, PUNISHMENT
Some fun scene setting - The wealthy might feel safe, secreted away in large houses in lovely areas, living behind electronic gates and protected by top-of-the range burglar alarms…The thin blue line is no longer just thin, it is malnourished and emaciated
20000 more police.
NOT legalising the ganja
BRITAIN’S NEW ROLE IN THE WORLD
Do Gibraltarians want a referendum on ‘becoming fully British’?
Dares to mention Trump by name.
‘Give[sic] the continued existence of rogue states’
Going for the pacifist vote with Labour.
DEFENDING OUR NATION
‘Genuine 2% on defence’
Lots of setting out the state of the military before it gets to any policy
Gordon Brown reference number 2.
Veteran support focus.
TRADE NOT AID
Foreign aid reduced (to 0.2%)? I am stunned!
Free trade, low regulation
So it can't account for the lead closing.
And it didn't stop the bigger poll leads 3 weeks ago in the first place.
Scrapping HS2 – another good one.
Regional airport expansion, defending diesel.
PROTECTING OUR ENVIRONMENT
Ancient woodland protection – ignores that not all parts of such sites are in fact ancient woodland, they can include cash crop trees regularly felled and bits with no trees, the overall area is designated, and may not all need the same level of protection.
Prioritise brownfield land for housing? What an innovative idea, I’ve never seen that everywhere else before.
FOOD PRODUCTION AND ANIMAL WELFARE
Pretty brief on farming really. Forbidding halal and kosha slaughter obviously the standout policy.
OUR FUTURE ENERGY SECURITY
Differentiation on Climate Change.
Suggests tories want to frack AONBs.
REAL DEMOCRACY
As noted earlier PR system, English parliament by additional member system, halve UK parliament, scrap postal voting on demand, abolish HoL, binding referendums every 2 years – genuinely bold and radical section, cannot say I agree with all of it though.
KEEPING IT LOCAL
Binding local referenda on things like out of town supermakers and major housing developments – expensive and makes strategic planning impossible, with planning policies pointless. Terrible terrible policy.
Oppose cabinet system of government at local level, but do not say they will remove it as an option, so meaningless.
FIVE YEAR FISCAL PLAN
Including tables makes me feel better.
CONCLUSION
Not as well put together as their 2015 manifesto, although I liked the same approach with quotes from different UKIP spokespeople . The democracy stuff was interesting, it was shorter than the others, ,but packed for of details, some pretty decent, although it made it a bit hard to follow and consider the overall theme, as it was all over the place with some far out stuff. Not terribly written, not as dry as the Tory one or as aggressive as the Labour one, but very name droppy.
I'm just confirming that fox-hunting is having an impact. I'm not attempting to justify a position one way or another.