Hmm. The Tories are also reliant on former UKIP supporters. Can they necessarily be relied on to turn out, now that Brexit is a fait accompli? Didn't UKIP attract a fair amount of support from people who didn't usually vote?
It is the voters who voted UKIP in 2015 that are moving
@SkyNewsBreak: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn expected to say "we must be brave enough to admit the 'war on terror' is simply not working" in speech tomorrow
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
You forgot free tuition fees, and no more foreign wars. Heck, I am tempted myself ;-)
I'm not.
Tempted to vote Con in NED ?
Or would that get you expelled from the local LibDems ?
Just been told I am now - subject to agreement - the Times Travel Section's official "Luxury Correspondent", starting this weekend (a piece on Pantelleria)
There will be a weekly spread on mega-mega luxurious travel, and the Times editor wants me to be the main writer, if I can find the time.
Should I agree? What do you think?
No Sounds like a shit job -all that top quality food and well toned fellow hotel guests-cant think of anything more boring.
Give me a Travelodge off the M62 and an on-sight Harvester any day of the week
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Don't know about the campaign - hard to judge I think. But the manifesto has gone down well.
It also helps that Corbyn isn't a bad speaker and actually when people hear him he's a lot better than the right wing press have made out. Reread this from Peter hitchens on Corbyn - I think there is something to his style that some people quite like.
Wow - that would probably be a small, maybe even reduced majority for TM right?
Baxtered, with Scotch, it gives TMay a majority of exactly 50.
She'd be damaged, but she would survive. Nick Timothy would be looking for a new job, maybe waiting tables somewhere.
On a universal swing it would be a Tory majority of circa 30 - but Labour would lose just 6 seats and all enjoy first time incumbency . Possibly no Labour losses at all.
The Tory swing is lowest in London, where their earliest target seats are anyway, biggest in the Midlands where they have most marginals to target
May and Corbyn are very lucky to be facing each other.
That's the most hilarious thing about the campaign.
It's our equivalent of Hillary versus The Donald.
May = Hillary Corbyn = Trump
Rubbish, May's base is more enthusiastic about her than Hillary's and she has no emailgate, if anything Nuttall is Trump, Corbyn is Sanders
May's base stopped being enthusiastic about her after that budget.
LOL at Nuttall being Trump. Trump the most relevant thing about the 2016 campaign. No one cares about Paul Nuttall now (or UKIP).
Sanders is actually very popular in America. Corbyn, well, isn't very popular here. Sanders is also more pragmatic that Corbyn in his approach - he'll sit down and talk to those who disagree with him on quite a few things.
Did it, the fact she was well over 40% in every poll even then hardly suggests that and that was pre u turn.
Nuttall's agenda is basically Trump's, Corbyn's similar to that Sanders put forward
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.
Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.
Impossible to say. A Bullingdon Boy might be a better opponent for Corbyn...
With the greatest of respect this is bollocks. Assuming Cameron had become PM under the same circumstances as May in 2016 with no Lib Dem or Ukip opposition worthy of the name he'd be miles clear of where Dementia Tax Dolly is at the moment. Fuck me IDS would give May a run for her money. That's how poor she's been.
Utter rubbish, it is the fact that May has won over UKIP voters Cameron won (who Cameron could never win) and added them to the 37% he won that has taken her to 42%, 45%, even 47% in some polls
The same Ukip voters who would still be moving to the Tories regardless of leader post Brexit. But keep telling yourself how wonderful she is. As your inept and spineless heroine spunks a 25 point lead in a couple of weeks.....
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Except he wasn't when he was leader.
In fact he managed to lose the 2016 local elections to Labour.
Other on 6% - SNP & Plaid must, realistically, be on more than 5%. Taking account of Speaker, independents and minor parties, effectively suggests that Greens now polling zero.
Thankfully 'parking tanks on the lawn' has been shot in the head and buried in an unmarked grave, but I feel 'mile wide and inch deep' still has loads of traction (unlike the tanks).
Notably not as strident as the more radical stuff you hear, but over the top right winger as Guido is, I do think he nails the point here
It uses the classic “but” technique preferred by Stop the War types: condemn the terrorists, say they are responsible, then add a “but” and talk about the West.
It's very clever. A lot of people are very against the interventions of recent decades, and this attempts to baby step the way to an even firmer 'we are also to blame' stance.
It doesn't work on me, and I opposed Iraq (I've been more conflicted on other examples), but once again I worry that people will hear it and just go 'Well, at least he's different from the rest, and he's not really blaming us'
He's still got savvy advisers - either they think they are in serious trouble and they need a hail mary and this is it, or they've tested it and it plays well (even if only to shore up what they have).
You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.
You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.
I never knew that, for one.
So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?
Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.
The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.
They are half right.... more like because the private contractors model is annoying and vague!
It is a rather odd situation and some bizzare elements, however at the same time also extremely efficient. No other care is funded all you can eat per patient; instead they are funded per contact. Those that get handed back to the health board and run centrally are much more costly per patient and are quick to be given back out to anyone wishing to take the contract on.
Christ, I never thought it would get that low. I get the true believers, I get the Tory haters and the Labour loyalists, but I just do not get how Labour could, even in a poll, be so much higher than poor Ed M got in the election.
Corbynism has defeated me, I cannot predict or explain its extent of appeal.
Unless the polls shift away again to regularly back into the low tens at least, I'm changing my prediction to Labour 195-215.
The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border control
The shift comes after a hostile reception to manifesto proposals forcing elderly people who need care at home to pay a potentially unlimited sum from their estate. After four days of pressure Mrs May changed the policy on Monday and announced a cap. The drop in Tory support appears to have come before the terrorist attack on Monday.
At the start of the election campaign Mrs May had personal approval ratings of 10 per cent. They dropped into negative territory for the first time on Monday, reaching minus 7 per cent, before returning to plus 1 per cent in yesterday’s poll. Mr Corbyn’s ratings began on minus 42 per cent and peaked on Monday at minus 11 per cent, dropping to minus 16 per cent yesterday. The parties are almost neck and neck in terms of how favourably they are regarded, with Labour on minus 8 per cent and the Conservatives on minus 7 per cent. YouGov interviewed 2,052 adults on Wednesday and yesterday.
You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.
Of course if we all believed Yougov 2 weeks out Ed Miliband would be PM and Scotland would have voted Yes and Remain won EU ref, May would still be PM even on this poll, just Corbyn is squeezing the minor party vote
That's the only bit of good news for Tories. Without Manchester, I wonder if Labour could have actually won this. The momentum is real, the manifesto was appalling.
It was literally the world's biggest unforced error. Theresa May is just rubbish at politics. Crosby must be going insane right now. His winning message has been ruined by Timothy's stupidity.
You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.
You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.
You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.
I never knew that, for one.
So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?
Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.
The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.
They are half right.... more like because the private contractors model is annoying and vague!
It is a rather odd situation and some bizzare elements, however at the same time also extremely efficient. No other care is funded all you can eat per patient; instead they are funded per contact. Those that get handed back to the health board and run centrally are much more costly per patient and are quick to be given back out to anyone wishing to take the contract on.
I know.... I work for one! The problem is defining what is expected from GPs. The contract isn't specific. Also most mental health and community services like district nurses are paid per contract, but yeah your general gist is dead right.
The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!
If Nick Timothy isn't hanging from a Downing Street window tomorrow morning then Theresa May is a bigger idiot than she seems. The man is a walking disaster. His policies are all crap and he wants to raise taxes on the Tory base. Fucking get this guy out of our party before he ruins us.
The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border control
It's been said they would do that for weeks. Either it is not working or it is too late. The details are clear - people give May much higher scores than Corbyn, so she might well outperform the headline VI figure, but it won't be a wipeout for Labour even if she does, unless it is by almost doubling it.
Any attempt by the Tories to bring out the security stuff now will look desperate and a distraction technique, they waited too long.
You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.
Even Farage says that.
Yes, this isn't a particularly radical POV.
Bold to say this so close to Manchester though. My gut tells me could be disastrous but I don't really know.
If TMay gets under a 30 seat majority, or actually loses that majority, then she will be gone within a few days. She will be OVER.
And she was Lady of all She Surveyed ten days ago. Incredible.
Because she didn't do anything. The second she opens her mouth it goes tits up. Ever since she became Pm. Name one good, well presented articulate policy since she became PM. Just one.....
When Labour were at 25% they were too high . When they reached 30% pb Tories said that was too high . Then they hit 34/35% , outliers they all cried . Now it is 38% a net swing now albeit a small one since 2015 from Con to Lab
You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
Tory majority 30-50 at best.
Yes, not everybody, but it was the general consenus.
YouGov poll fieldwork was after the event (done on Wednesday/Thursday).
Now that Mr. Corbyn has openly attacked British foreign policy, he has opened the doors for the Conservatives and others to attack his and his colleagues records on security and terror. Let's see what happens over the next few days... No need to panic!
May is going to win easily. Her problems begin on 9th June, when delivery has to begin.
There is now a significant chance she will not get a majority. The trend is pretty blood clear.
What a fuck up by the Tories. Blowing the whole show. Nick Timothy will be gone. He has to go. Even if she wins. The man who threw away a 150 seat majority, and a chance to erase Labour for a decade or more.
She is in grave danger, as well.
The worst part is that he gave it away for a policy none was asking about. Madness.
- We are told that General Election campaigns don't usually change things, that people have made their mind up way before - In the last election, we were told that the best PM score was a more reliable metric than the raw party political stuff. May leads by a country mile. - There is plenty of anecdotal data to show that JC is toxic with the WWC - The Labour Uncut piece stated that, in places like the NE, canvassers were reporting that 1 in 3 2015 Labour voters were deserting the party. This from the same guy who stated a week before the 2015 GE that Labour was in trouble based on what could be gleaned from the early postal votes. - Older people tend to vote and they remember the IRA etc etc.
Against that, we have the polls. If your Momentum people have decided that influencing the betting odds can change the narrative, then they were surely have worked out that getting yourself up with a polling company (which, let's be honest, they are desperate to have people sign up for them) also makes sense. I would bet money (and I have) that this is what is happening here.
You know what has been the number one topic I have found has come up time and time again post-Manchester? Immigration. As in "we let these people in, it is unbelievable", swiftly followed by "And Corbyn (and the Lib Dems) want to let in more!"
If anyone wants to have a bet it will be a Hung Parliament, please, please, please get in touch.....
When Labour were at 25% they were too high . When they reached 30% pb Tories said that was too high . Then they hit 34/35% , outliers they all cried . Now it is 38% a net swing now albeit a small one since 2015 from Con to Lab
The shift comes after a hostile reception to manifesto proposals forcing elderly people who need care at home to pay a potentially unlimited sum from their estate. After four days of pressure Mrs May changed the policy on Monday and announced a cap. The drop in Tory support appears to have come before the terrorist attack on Monday.
At the start of the election campaign Mrs May had personal approval ratings of 10 per cent. They dropped into negative territory for the first time on Monday, reaching minus 7 per cent, before returning to plus 1 per cent in yesterday’s poll. Mr Corbyn’s ratings began on minus 42 per cent and peaked on Monday at minus 11 per cent, dropping to minus 16 per cent yesterday. The parties are almost neck and neck in terms of how favourably they are regarded, with Labour on minus 8 per cent and the Conservatives on minus 7 per cent. YouGov interviewed 2,052 adults on Wednesday and yesterday.
It sounds rather as though the Tory lead would have been down to zero by now if it hadn't been for the terrorist attack.
What will happen when people's attention returns to the campaign?
This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN
She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".
Tories are on 43% and that is a fantastic score. It looks like it has barely changed. Its very hard to rationally expect it to be much higher, 45% possibly. UKIP have collapsed and the LDs have disappeared. Labour are of course bribing the electorate with their own money perhaps that is where the LDs have disappeared to. Corbyn is reverting to type and waving the surrender flag to islamic terrorism aimed at winning hegemony over the west and being left alone to pursue its evil policies (too many to list). Perhaps thats what voters want. Personally it disgusts me and I hope he is shafted by it.
Comments
Sounds like a shit job -all that top quality food and well toned fellow hotel guests-cant think of anything more boring.
Give me a Travelodge off the M62 and an on-sight Harvester any day of the week
https://twitter.com/ten_gop/status/867466337286844416
But the manifesto has gone down well.
It also helps that Corbyn isn't a bad speaker and actually when people hear him he's a lot better than the right wing press have made out. Reread this from Peter hitchens on Corbyn - I think there is something to his style that some people quite like.
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/my-evening-with-jeremy-corbyn.html
And it's after Manchester WOW.
Nuttall's agenda is basically Trump's, Corbyn's similar to that Sanders put forward
In fact he managed to lose the 2016 local elections to Labour.
Post Manchester bomb too.
It uses the classic “but” technique preferred by Stop the War types: condemn the terrorists, say they are responsible, then add a “but” and talk about the West.
It's very clever. A lot of people are very against the interventions of recent decades, and this attempts to baby step the way to an even firmer 'we are also to blame' stance.
It doesn't work on me, and I opposed Iraq (I've been more conflicted on other examples), but once again I worry that people will hear it and just go 'Well, at least he's different from the rest, and he's not really blaming us'
He's still got savvy advisers - either they think they are in serious trouble and they need a hail mary and this is it, or they've tested it and it plays well (even if only to shore up what they have).
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Both a brilliant and awful campaign by Labour.
Corbynism has defeated me, I cannot predict or explain its extent of appeal.
Unless the polls shift away again to regularly back into the low tens at least, I'm changing my prediction to Labour 195-215.
I did mention the day of the tory manifesto,people didn't support it in a phone in and it went down like a bucket of sick.
Also, how did it happen before Manchester? I thought the Times said it was Wednesday-Thursday!
Odd.
The shift comes after a hostile reception to manifesto proposals forcing elderly people who need care at home to pay a potentially unlimited sum from their estate. After four days of pressure Mrs May changed the policy on Monday and announced a cap. The drop in Tory support appears to have come before the terrorist attack on Monday.
At the start of the election campaign Mrs May had personal approval ratings of 10 per cent. They dropped into negative territory for the first time on Monday, reaching minus 7 per cent, before returning to plus 1 per cent in yesterday’s poll. Mr Corbyn’s ratings began on minus 42 per cent and peaked on Monday at minus 11 per cent, dropping to minus 16 per cent yesterday. The parties are almost neck and neck in terms of how favourably they are regarded, with Labour on minus 8 per cent and the Conservatives on minus 7 per cent. YouGov interviewed 2,052 adults on Wednesday and yesterday.
Even Farage says that.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
Tory majority 30-50 at best.
Sure hope Crosby is playing rope a dope.
Also most mental health and community services like district nurses are paid per contract, but yeah your general gist is dead right.
Any attempt by the Tories to bring out the security stuff now will look desperate and a distraction technique, they waited too long.
My gut tells me could be disastrous but I don't really know.
Remember brexit and trump ;-)
YouGov poll fieldwork was after the event (done on Wednesday/Thursday).
- We are told that General Election campaigns don't usually change things, that people have made their mind up way before
- In the last election, we were told that the best PM score was a more reliable metric than the raw party political stuff. May leads by a country mile.
- There is plenty of anecdotal data to show that JC is toxic with the WWC
- The Labour Uncut piece stated that, in places like the NE, canvassers were reporting that 1 in 3 2015 Labour voters were deserting the party. This from the same guy who stated a week before the 2015 GE that Labour was in trouble based on what could be gleaned from the early postal votes.
- Older people tend to vote and they remember the IRA etc etc.
Against that, we have the polls. If your Momentum people have decided that influencing the betting odds can change the narrative, then they were surely have worked out that getting yourself up with a polling company (which, let's be honest, they are desperate to have people sign up for them) also makes sense. I would bet money (and I have) that this is what is happening here.
You know what has been the number one topic I have found has come up time and time again post-Manchester? Immigration. As in "we let these people in, it is unbelievable", swiftly followed by "And Corbyn (and the Lib Dems) want to let in more!"
If anyone wants to have a bet it will be a Hung Parliament, please, please, please get in touch.....
NEW THREAD
It will be very difficult for the moderates to get back control of the Labour party.
What will happen when people's attention returns to the campaign?
Corbyn is reverting to type and waving the surrender flag to islamic terrorism aimed at winning hegemony over the west and being left alone to pursue its evil policies (too many to list). Perhaps thats what voters want. Personally it disgusts me and I hope he is shafted by it.