Probably not an outlier in the circumstances in which it was taken, but events have moved on since then so we can't really form a judgement until we've seen some polls with more recent fieldwork.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
No they wouldn't, yougov at the weekend also had May beating Cooper, Khan and Umunna comfortably
Aye, but I just wondered how the current Corbasm was going down with folk like him. Labour goes incredibly deep with these guys, I'm just wondering how deep.
Ah, I understand.
Looks like he's still Labour (from the tweet you posted), and tbh I'd expect die hard Labour voters like Ferguson to stick with the party, even with Corbyn leading the party.
I'm no ed miliband fan but I've never understood this stitching his brother up idea. He beat him in an election when he thought he had the better ideas. Should he have deferred to his brother just because david is older?
The circumstances conspired against Ed M.
1. His brother was the favourite 2. He won because of union votes 3. At the time (seems crazy now) he was considered more radical and leftist.
All that created a narrative that he snatched the leadership away from the frontrunner and therefore usurped him.
Probably unfair, but it stuck.
I'm an only child, so I'm not the best authority - but some I know with siblings said there's no way they'd compete with their sibling for a job. They'd find the idea utterly unthinkable. And David was the one who was most obvisouly interested, so he gets first dibs.
Complete crap.
David Miliband had had at least four opportunities to challenge Brown for the Labour leadership and lost his bottle each time.
He was a complacent coward who thought all he had to do was wait and he would be offered the Labour leadership on a plate.
When the time came he ran an ineffective leadership campaign and was beaten by a better politician.
The rumour is that David Miliband was going to follow James Purcell out of the cabinet in June 2009.
But Ed Miliband persuaded him not to do so, told him to think he should think about the greater good of the Labour party, and that if Brown lost in 2010, then Ed would back David for the leadership.
That's why David Miliband felt betrayed by Ed.
I really can't see DM resigning in June 2009.
That would have taken some courage and the ability to make a decisive decision.
I think he was hoping that the various anti-Brown resignations which took place between 2008 and 2010 would bring down Gordon but wanted to play the 'loyal man'.
I recall Paddy power paid out on "Brown is toast" at the height of the speculation (I think just after Purnell had jumped)
So it clearly was looking dire for Brown at that point.
I remember because I was arbing the Brown exit date market and won both sides of the bet.
'appy days
Don't talk about that night to Mike.
He was a guest on Radio 5 Live that night, he heard about the resignation, around 8.30pm, but it was embargoed until 10pm because people were still voting, but Mike couldn't do anything about it, because he was in the studio, and had to put his mobile in a locker in a room far far away.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
Labours vote share heavily reliant on non voters apparently
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
No they wouldn't, yougov at the weekend also had May beating Cooper, Khan and Umunna comfortably
Yes they would - Labour would be a totally different party to what is under Corbyn.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
Labours vote share heavily reliant on non voters apparently
I've seen a lot of them (non-voters) on twitter being very enthuastic about Corbyn and they swear they'll be voting Labour on 8th June.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
The worst thing for the Conservatives (and the country) is that she's the best they've got.
If the impact of Manchester is that some Kipper -> Con switchers go back to a protest vote then oh dear...
The impact of Manchester will be largely any Tory to Labour movement swiftly unwinds, the UKIP to Tory vote will largely hold firm, May's commitment to Brexit, her target to reduce immigration below 100 000 a year and her statesmanlike manner this week will see to that
the appointment of ultra-leftist Andrew Murray as camaign co-ordinator
How many times do I have to say this? Andrew Murray is not an "ultra-leftist". Until recently he was a tankie, and for all I know he may well still be one, although certainly Labour is not standing on a tankie platform. Ultra-leftists oppose Leninism in all of its variants (Trotskyism, Stalinism, Maoism, etc.), and they oppose parliamentarism and usually national liberation too. They are nothing like tankies, and their attitude towards the Labour party is totally different from the tankie attitude.
And you, Leo, praised Gerry Adams in the notoriously spooked-up Prospect magazine in 1999 as a "hero of the peace process".
I didn't know what a "tankie" was, so I googled it. This is wikipedia's description.
A Tankie is an apologist for the violence and crimes against humanity perpetrated by twentieth-century Marxist-Leninist regimes, particularly the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Given Cameron and Corbyn were leaders at the same time, you presumably have polls that show this?
No need for the Tories to panic. They just need to start campaigning on the basics of leadership, the economy, Brexit and defence. The British public is not stupid, when they focus on these issues they'll conclude the country cannot risk Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott in power.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
Absolutely not, May had a 12% lead against Yvette Cooper, Mrs Balls, in a hypothetical yougov over the weekend, even bigger than she had against Corbyn! Only Khan increased the Labour voteshare and by only 1%
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.
Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.</blockquote Put it this way. If you were Corbyn who would you rather be up against? It's not Dave.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.
Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.
And yet your beloved Labour Party haven't won an election in 12 years. TWELVE YEARS!!! HA!!!!
No need for the Tories to panic. They just need to start campaigning on the basics of leadership, the economy, Brexit and defence. The British public is not stupid, when they focus on these issues they'll conclude the country cannot risk Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott in power.
There are just 13 full days left. Could they maybe start, you know, right effing now?
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Given Cameron and Corbyn were leaders at the same time, you presumably have polls that show this?
Indeed, Cameron was polling worse against Corbyn than May is
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
We wouldn't be having this election if he hadn't flounced off.
If she starts to look, even a little, like losing it could unravel.
Unlikely, but not impossible.
I think there's a little in that, and had there been no missteps then a truly massive landslide could have occurred, with Labour heartland seats up for grabs by the dozen, but by having a poor campaign, and Corbyn not slipping up yet, that tipping point won't be reached.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.
Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.
If modern Tories are shit at elections what does that say about modern Labour?
the appointment of ultra-leftist Andrew Murray as camaign co-ordinator
How many times do I have to say this? Andrew Murray is not an "ultra-leftist". Until recently he was a tankie, and for all I know he may well still be one, although certainly Labour is not standing on a tankie platform. Ultra-leftists oppose Leninism in all of its variants (Trotskyism, Stalinism, Maoism, etc.), and they oppose parliamentarism and usually national liberation too. They are nothing like tankies, and their attitude towards the Labour party is totally different from the tankie attitude.
And you, Leo, praised Gerry Adams in the notoriously spooked-up Prospect magazine in 1999 as a "hero of the peace process".
I didn't know what a "tankie" was, so I googled it. This is wikipedia's description.
A Tankie is an apologist for the violence and crimes against humanity perpetrated by twentieth-century Marxist-Leninist regimes, particularly the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin
You really think that is ok?
I thought he was suggesting 'Tankies' are not true ultra lefties, and therefore good old ultra lefties should not be tarred with the tankie brush, but it seems splitting hairs.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
Absolutely not, May had a 12% lead against Yvette Cooper, Mrs Balls, in a hypothetical yougov over the weekend, even bigger than she had against Corbyn! Only Khan increased the Labour voteshare and by only 1%
Yes but hypothetical alternative leader polls are always a nonsense, unless you also imagine that (say) Chuka would have led Labour in exactly the same way as Corbyn, with the same shadow cabinet, policies and so on.
If the impact of Manchester is that some Kipper -> Con switchers go back to a protest vote then oh dear...
That occurred to me, too. And the Kipper manifesto has some very good stuff in it. Seriously interesting politics, stuff other parties should be doing.
Hmm.
There's some compelling stuff in there, although how many will really know it?
May and Corbyn are very lucky to be facing each other.
That's the most hilarious thing about the campaign.
It's our equivalent of Hillary versus The Donald.
A bit unfair to May. At least she has put forward some difficult policies, despite how cack-handed they have been announced. Who on earth knows what Hillary stood for.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
Absolutely not, May had a 12% lead against Yvette Cooper, Mrs Balls, in a hypothetical yougov over the weekend, even bigger than she had against Corbyn! Only Khan increased the Labour voteshare and by only 1%
Yes but hypothetical alternative leader polls are always a nonsense, unless you also imagine that (say) Chuka would have led Labour in exactly the same way as Corbyn, with the same shadow cabinet, policies and so on.
They aren't always, Cameron increased the Tory voteshare in 2005 polls, David Miliband did better than Ed in 2010 polls, Burnham did best in 2015 polls (and won Greater Manchester in 2017 by a landslide)
No need for the Tories to panic. They just need to start campaigning on the basics of leadership, the economy, Brexit and defence. The British public is not stupid, when they focus on these issues they'll conclude the country cannot risk Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott in power.
There are just 13 full days left. Could they maybe start, you know, right effing now?
This. They are still so very complacent, sure that people will just start sliding away from Corbyn. Or they don't believe the polls and are sure they are doing fine, or they don't care to try for a landslide.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
Absolutely not, May had a 12% lead against Yvette Cooper, Mrs Balls, in a hypothetical yougov over the weekend, even bigger than she had against Corbyn! Only Khan increased the Labour voteshare and by only 1%
A hypothetical is just that. It essentially puts Coopr or Khan or whoever in charge of a Labour party that has been led by Jeremy Corbyn for two years, not one they have led, with different front benches and different policies.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Given Cameron and Corbyn were leaders at the same time, you presumably have polls that show this?
Indeed, Cameron was polling worse against Corbyn than May is
Something that many metropolitans don't understand that that Cameron alienated far more small C conservatives than Mrs May.
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
I suppose the hope from Labour would be those voters learned their lesson from 2015 when they didn't show up, and as it is only 2 years later won't forget to vote again.
May is hugely lucky. If Gove/Boris had sorted their shit out, she would have lost that election. She stumbled upon the unique circumstances where she could become and probably stay PM. Bit like John Major.
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.
You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.
I never knew that, for one.
So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?
Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.
The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Given Cameron and Corbyn were leaders at the same time, you presumably have polls that show this?
Indeed, Cameron was polling worse against Corbyn than May is
Something that many metropolitans don't understand that that Cameron alienated far more small C conservatives than Mrs May.
Indeed, May might lose Richmond Park, Twickenham and Bath which are full of metropolitan liberals but she will more than make up for it by winning Walsall, Bury, Wrexham and Copeland which are full of people conservative in nature if not ideology
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
IFS analysis on the manifestos due tomorrow morning. Should be an interesting read.
the appointment of ultra-leftist Andrew Murray as camaign co-ordinator
How many times do I have to say this? Andrew Murray is not an "ultra-leftist". Until recently he was a tankie, and for all I know he may well still be one, although certainly Labour is not standing on a tankie platform. Ultra-leftists oppose Leninism in all of its variants (Trotskyism, Stalinism, Maoism, etc.), and they oppose parliamentarism and usually national liberation too. They are nothing like tankies, and their attitude towards the Labour party is totally different from the tankie attitude.
And you, Leo, praised Gerry Adams in the notoriously spooked-up Prospect magazine in 1999 as a "hero of the peace process".
I didn't know what a "tankie" was, so I googled it. This is wikipedia's description.
A Tankie is an apologist for the violence and crimes against humanity perpetrated by twentieth-century Marxist-Leninist regimes, particularly the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin
You really think that is ok?
I thought he was suggesting 'Tankies' are not true ultra lefties, and therefore good old ultra lefties should not be tarred with the tankie brush, but it seems splitting hairs.
By implication he is also saying that it's not a bad think that Murray has been appointed because he's only a tankie.
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
You forgot free tuition fees, and no more foreign wars. Heck, I am tempted myself ;-)
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.
Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.
Impossible to say. A Bullingdon Boy might be a better opponent for Corbyn...
With the greatest of respect this is bollocks. Assuming Cameron had become PM under the same circumstances as May in 2016 with no Lib Dem or Ukip opposition worthy of the name he'd be miles clear of where Dementia Tax Dolly is at the moment. Fuck me IDS would give May a run for her money. That's how poor she's been.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
Absolutely not, May had a 12% lead against Yvette Cooper, Mrs Balls, in a hypothetical yougov over the weekend, even bigger than she had against Corbyn! Only Khan increased the Labour voteshare and by only 1%
A hypothetical is just that. It essentially puts Coopr or Khan or whoever in charge of a Labour party that has been led by Jeremy Corbyn for two years, not one they have led, with different front benches and different policies.
People vote for the leader, not the shadow cabinet, it shows that Labour's problems are not all to do with Corbyn but reflect people's concerns over their economic competence, their immigration policies etc
May and Corbyn are very lucky to be facing each other.
That's the most hilarious thing about the campaign.
It's our equivalent of Hillary versus The Donald.
May = Hillary Corbyn = Trump
Rubbish, May's base is more enthusiastic about her than Hillary's and she has no emailgate, if anything Nuttall is Trump, Corbyn is Sanders
May's base stopped being enthusiastic about her after that budget.
LOL at Nuttall being Trump. Trump the most relevant thing about the 2016 campaign. No one cares about Paul Nuttall now (or UKIP).
Sanders is actually very popular in America. Corbyn, well, isn't very popular here. Sanders is also more pragmatic that Corbyn in his approach - he'll sit down and talk to those who disagree with him on quite a few things.
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
You forgot free tuition fees, and no more foreign wars. Heck, I am tempted myself ;-)
Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.
You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.
I never knew that, for one.
So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?
Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.
The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.
They are half right.... more like because the private contractors model is annoying and vague!
Wow - that would probably be a small, maybe even reduced majority for TM right?
Baxtered, with Scotch, it gives TMay a majority of exactly 50.
She'd be damaged, but she would survive. Nick Timothy would be looking for a new job, maybe waiting tables somewhere.
On a universal swing it would be a Tory majority of circa 30 - but Labour would lose just 6 seats and all enjoy first time incumbency . Possibly no Labour losses at all.
Hmm. The Tories are also reliant on former UKIP supporters. Can they necessarily be relied on to turn out, now that Brexit is a fait accompli? Didn't UKIP attract a fair amount of support from people who didn't usually vote?
Just been told I am now - subject to agreement - the Times Travel Section's official "Luxury Correspondent", starting this weekend (a piece on Pantelleria)
There will be a weekly spread on mega-mega luxurious travel, and the Times editor wants me to be the main writer, if I can find the time.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...
Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.
Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.
Impossible to say. A Bullingdon Boy might be a better opponent for Corbyn...
With the greatest of respect this is bollocks. Assuming Cameron had become PM under the same circumstances as May in 2016 with no Lib Dem or Ukip opposition worthy of the name he'd be miles clear of where Dementia Tax Dolly is at the moment. Fuck me IDS would give May a run for her money. That's how poor she's been.
Utter rubbish, it is the fact that May has won over UKIP voters Cameron won (who Cameron could never win) and added them to the 37% he won that has taken her to 42%, 45%, even 47% in some polls
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
You forgot free tuition fees, and no more foreign wars. Heck, I am tempted myself ;-)
I'm not.
Tempted to vote Con in NED ?
Or would that get you expelled from the local LibDems ?
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points ahead
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.
You forgot free tuition fees, and no more foreign wars. Heck, I am tempted myself ;-)
For what it's worth, while there;s a lot of policies in it I don't support, the LD manifesto has so far been the best overall in presentation.
Comments
So at peak Dementia-gate, she'd quadruple her majority. Acceptable.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/867815561174142977
You'll learn to love him soon enough.
Looks like he's still Labour (from the tweet you posted), and tbh I'd expect die hard Labour voters like Ferguson to stick with the party, even with Corbyn leading the party.
He was a guest on Radio 5 Live that night, he heard about the resignation, around 8.30pm, but it was embargoed until 10pm because people were still voting, but Mike couldn't do anything about it, because he was in the studio, and had to put his mobile in a locker in a room far far away.
So he was unable to bet on it, and lost money.
If she starts to look, even a little, like losing it could unravel.
Unlikely, but not impossible.
Because of events, I don't think we're getting an Ipsos MORI poll this week
We'll see.
A Tankie is an apologist for the violence and crimes against humanity perpetrated by twentieth-century Marxist-Leninist regimes, particularly the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin
You really think that is ok?
A classic bubble, which will almost certainly see her over the line
But a bubble nonetheless.
Corbyn = Trump
This is why people feel so apathetic about politics.
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Aren't policeman getting young? This modern music all sounds the same!
LOL at Nuttall being Trump. Trump the most relevant thing about the 2016 campaign. No one cares about Paul Nuttall now (or UKIP).
Sanders is actually very popular in America. Corbyn, well, isn't very popular here. Sanders is also more pragmatic that Corbyn in his approach - he'll sit down and talk to those who disagree with him on quite a few things.
EDIT: beaten to it.
Corbyn refreshes the parts other politicians don't reach.
Or would that get you expelled from the local LibDems ?
Con 42 -5
Lab 34 plus 5
LD 9 plus 1
UKIP 4 minus 2
Green 4 N/C
Fieldwork 18-22nd
Hopefully not hyping this too much.. titters.