politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s one local by-election
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It is the voters who voted UKIP in 2015 that are movingChris said:
Hmm. The Tories are also reliant on former UKIP supporters. Can they necessarily be relied on to turn out, now that Brexit is a fait accompli? Didn't UKIP attract a fair amount of support from people who didn't usually vote?brokenwheel said:0 -
@SkyNewsBreak: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn expected to say "we must be brave enough to admit the 'war on terror' is simply not working" in speech tomorrow0
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I'll be voting Lib Dem..another_richard said:
Tempted to vote Con in NED ?Pulpstar said:
I'm not.foxinsoxuk said:
You forgot free tuition fees, and no more foreign wars. Heck, I am tempted myself ;-)kle4 said:
Who wouldn't? More police, more firefighters, more money for health and education, worker's rights, sunshine and roses.foxinsoxuk said:
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.Razedabode said:
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points aheadScott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
Or would that get you expelled from the local LibDems ?0 -
Hyped out of all proportion....0
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Oh dear, Corbyn you idiot.0
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NoSeanT said:Just been told I am now - subject to agreement - the Times Travel Section's official "Luxury Correspondent", starting this weekend (a piece on Pantelleria)
There will be a weekly spread on mega-mega luxurious travel, and the Times editor wants me to be the main writer, if I can find the time.
Should I agree? What do you think?
Sounds like a shit job -all that top quality food and well toned fellow hotel guests-cant think of anything more boring.
Give me a Travelodge off the M62 and an on-sight Harvester any day of the week0 -
That'll kibosh the Labour revival, I should expect.0
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Labour are Respect in beige suitsTheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/ten_gop/status/8674663372868444160 -
The Tory swing is lowest in London, where their earliest target seats are anyway, biggest in the Midlands where they have most marginals to targetjustin124 said:
On a universal swing it would be a Tory majority of circa 30 - but Labour would lose just 6 seats and all enjoy first time incumbency . Possibly no Labour losses at all.SeanT said:
Baxtered, with Scotch, it gives TMay a majority of exactly 50.rkrkrk said:
Wow - that would probably be a small, maybe even reduced majority for TM right?Scott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)
She'd be damaged, but she would survive. Nick Timothy would be looking for a new job, maybe waiting tables somewhere.0 -
Christ on a bike. Corbyn is a f******* disgrace.0
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Don't know about the campaign - hard to judge I think.foxinsoxuk said:
Just when you think May has reached peak crappness, she manages to out do it.Razedabode said:
Possibly taken at peak Tory crapness and still 8 points aheadScott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)
Jezza is running an excellent campaign, teflon coated and people liking what they see as fresh politcs. I am struggling to get Mrs Fox and Fox jr to vote LD. They both really liked the Lab manifesto.
But the manifesto has gone down well.
It also helps that Corbyn isn't a bad speaker and actually when people hear him he's a lot better than the right wing press have made out. Reread this from Peter hitchens on Corbyn - I think there is something to his style that some people quite like.
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/my-evening-with-jeremy-corbyn.html0 -
"I'm not racist, but..."RobD said:0 -
NOW it is squeaky bum time.Scott_P said:0 -
I thought Sean said May would get 150 majScott_P said:0 -
OUTLIER KLAXON!!!Scott_P said:
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Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster0
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@DPJHodges: Tomorrow Jeremy Corbyn is going to attack Theresa May for being soft on terror.0
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Blimey!0
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Labour on 38%?! Surely not.0
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Hung parliament?Scott_P said:0 -
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Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week0
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Did it, the fact she was well over 40% in every poll even then hardly suggests that and that was pre u turn.The_Apocalypse said:
May's base stopped being enthusiastic about her after that budget.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, May's base is more enthusiastic about her than Hillary's and she has no emailgate, if anything Nuttall is Trump, Corbyn is SandersThe_Apocalypse said:
May = HillarySeanT said:
It's our equivalent of Hillary versus The Donald.The_Apocalypse said:
That's the most hilarious thing about the campaign.SouthamObserver said:May and Corbyn are very lucky to be facing each other.
Corbyn = Trump
LOL at Nuttall being Trump. Trump the most relevant thing about the 2016 campaign. No one cares about Paul Nuttall now (or UKIP).
Sanders is actually very popular in America. Corbyn, well, isn't very popular here. Sanders is also more pragmatic that Corbyn in his approach - he'll sit down and talk to those who disagree with him on quite a few things.
Nuttall's agenda is basically Trump's, Corbyn's similar to that Sanders put forward0 -
The same Ukip voters who would still be moving to the Tories regardless of leader post Brexit. But keep telling yourself how wonderful she is. As your inept and spineless heroine spunks a 25 point lead in a couple of weeks.....HYUFD said:
Utter rubbish, it is the fact that May has won over UKIP voters Cameron won (who Cameron could never win) and added them to the 37% he won that has taken her to 42%, 45%, even 47% in some pollsmidwinter said:
With the greatest of respect this is bollocks. Assuming Cameron had become PM under the same circumstances as May in 2016 with no Lib Dem or Ukip opposition worthy of the name he'd be miles clear of where Dementia Tax Dolly is at the moment. Fuck me IDS would give May a run for her money. That's how poor she's been.SeanT said:
Impossible to say. A Bullingdon Boy might be a better opponent for Corbyn...midwinter said:SeanT said:
Dunno about that. He couldn't beat Brown - he threw away massive poll leads the same way as TMay- and he barely beat the ludicrous Ed Miliband.midwinter said:
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...SeanT said:
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, although I don't think that's 'privatisation.'RobD said:
Hasn't private provision increased more under Labour?The_Apocalypse said:Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
Oh wait, that was the New Labour (war criminal) party. My mistake.
Many on the Left saw it that way though.
I remember them being critical of private provision under New Labour.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.Scott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
Modern Tories are shit at elections, it turns out.0 -
Gloves off now! Corbyn has blown it...Sandpit said:Oh dear, Corbyn you idiot.
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Except he wasn't when he was leader.midwinter said:
And David Cameron would have been 25 points clear of Corbyn under the same circumstances. Just saying...SeanT said:
It is a severe indictment of TMay, for sure. She's a couple of points from losing her majority against, probably, the worst leader in the history of the Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, although I don't think that's 'privatisation.'RobD said:
Hasn't private provision increased more under Labour?The_Apocalypse said:Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
Oh wait, that was the New Labour (war criminal) party. My mistake.
Many on the Left saw it that way though.
I remember them being critical of private provision under New Labour.
If Labour weren't led by Corbyn, they'd be heading for Number 10 right now.Scott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)
How can you possibly be only eight points head against the current Labour party? I would not trust Diane Abbott to look after my handbag for a few minutes, let alone run the Home Office!
Ed Balls would now be 10 points ahead of the Tories.
In fact he managed to lose the 2016 local elections to Labour.0 -
Other on 6% - SNP & Plaid must, realistically, be on more than 5%. Taking account of Speaker, independents and minor parties, effectively suggests that Greens now polling zero.Scott_P said:0 -
The trend is clear and continuing , perhaps the next Yougov poll will be better for the Conservatives as it seems to consist of mostly pb ToriesTheScreamingEagles said:Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week
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Quelle surprise. He couldn't resist, could he?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Thankfully 'parking tanks on the lawn' has been shot in the head and buried in an unmarked grave, but I feel 'mile wide and inch deep' still has loads of traction (unlike the tanks).0
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Notably not as strident as the more radical stuff you hear, but over the top right winger as Guido is, I do think he nails the point hereRobD said:
It uses the classic “but” technique preferred by Stop the War types: condemn the terrorists, say they are responsible, then add a “but” and talk about the West.
It's very clever. A lot of people are very against the interventions of recent decades, and this attempts to baby step the way to an even firmer 'we are also to blame' stance.
It doesn't work on me, and I opposed Iraq (I've been more conflicted on other examples), but once again I worry that people will hear it and just go 'Well, at least he's different from the rest, and he's not really blaming us'
He's still got savvy advisers - either they think they are in serious trouble and they need a hail mary and this is it, or they've tested it and it plays well (even if only to shore up what they have).0 -
Thank God, the panic on here is a sight to continue. Please let it continue, because it creates great betting opportunities.
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Indeed, the Tory voteshare not much changed, the Labour voteshare mainly increasing from 'others'Razedabode said:Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster
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Don't worry, Corbyn's doing his best to get it back to a 15% lead as quickly as possible.TheScreamingEagles said:Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week
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Whoops, typed that in a hurry...
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You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.0 -
Corbyn has just destroyed his surge exactly at the point of maximum, and even historic, opportunity, for him, I think.
Both a brilliant and awful campaign by Labour.0 -
But the fieldwork was after the attacks??TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867848549127553024
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Won't happen...SeanT said:This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN
She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".0 -
It is a rather odd situation and some bizzare elements, however at the same time also extremely efficient. No other care is funded all you can eat per patient; instead they are funded per contact. Those that get handed back to the health board and run centrally are much more costly per patient and are quick to be given back out to anyone wishing to take the contract on.Freggles said:
They are half right.... more like because the private contractors model is annoying and vague!ReallyEvilMuffin said:
The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.Freggles said:
Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.gettingbetter said:
So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?SeanT said:
I never knew that, for one.Rhubarb said:
You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.David_Evershed said:
It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.The_Apocalypse said:Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
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O.M.G.0
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The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!0
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Christ, I never thought it would get that low. I get the true believers, I get the Tory haters and the Labour loyalists, but I just do not get how Labour could, even in a poll, be so much higher than poor Ed M got in the election.Scott_P said:
Corbynism has defeated me, I cannot predict or explain its extent of appeal.
Unless the polls shift away again to regularly back into the low tens at least, I'm changing my prediction to Labour 195-215.0 -
The tory press need to get on board and Quick.SeanT said:This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN
She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".
I did mention the day of the tory manifesto,people didn't support it in a phone in and it went down like a bucket of sick.0 -
The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border controlTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Squeaky bum time doesn't even begin to describe itTheScreamingEagles said:The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!
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I can't equate those supplementaries with the headline intention.TheScreamingEagles said:
Also, how did it happen before Manchester? I thought the Times said it was Wednesday-Thursday!
Odd.
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May is going to win easily. Her problems begin on 9th June, when delivery has to begin.0
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From The Times
The shift comes after a hostile reception to manifesto proposals forcing elderly people who need care at home to pay a potentially unlimited sum from their estate. After four days of pressure Mrs May changed the policy on Monday and announced a cap. The drop in Tory support appears to have come before the terrorist attack on Monday.
At the start of the election campaign Mrs May had personal approval ratings of 10 per cent. They dropped into negative territory for the first time on Monday, reaching minus 7 per cent, before returning to plus 1 per cent in yesterday’s poll. Mr Corbyn’s ratings began on minus 42 per cent and peaked on Monday at minus 11 per cent, dropping to minus 16 per cent yesterday. The parties are almost neck and neck in terms of how favourably they are regarded, with Labour on minus 8 per cent and the Conservatives on minus 7 per cent. YouGov interviewed 2,052 adults on Wednesday and yesterday.0 -
Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.The_Apocalypse said:You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Even Farage says that.0 -
If 56% want the death penalty I don't think Corbyn is about to win.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Of course if we all believed Yougov 2 weeks out Ed Miliband would be PM and Scotland would have voted Yes and Remain won EU ref, May would still be PM even on this poll, just Corbyn is squeezing the minor party vote0
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That disparity beween leadership figures also - poll possibly an outlier?HYUFD said:
Indeed, the Tory voteshare not much changed, the Labour voteshare mainly increasing from 'others'Razedabode said:Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster
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Those supplementaries are fantastic for May.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Are people still confident that the Tory lead is large enough that they needn't worry about the accuracy of the polls?0
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OUTLIER KLAXON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Tory lead down to 5% with YouGov, fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday of this week
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It was literally the world's biggest unforced error. Theresa May is just rubbish at politics. Crosby must be going insane right now. His winning message has been ruined by Timothy's stupidity.SeanT said:
That's the only bit of good news for Tories. Without Manchester, I wonder if Labour could have actually won this. The momentum is real, the manifesto was appalling.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yes, this isn't a particularly radical POV.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.The_Apocalypse said:You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Even Farage says that.0 -
Outlier klaxon has been going off a lot lately.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Outlier Klaxon!!TheScreamingEagles said:Peak dementia tax, mostly before the events in Manchester too
Kantar-TNS poll
Westminster voting intention:
Con 42% (-5) Lab 34% (+5) LD 9% (+1) UKIP 4% (-2) Greens 4% (nc)
Fieldwork 18th - 22nd May0 -
There is no fucking way 35% of British voters will vote Corbyn, forget the polls IT WONT HAPPEN0
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Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.The_Apocalypse said:You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
Tory majority 30-50 at best.0 -
Everything Before The But Is Bollocks.RobD said:0 -
The YouGov is yesterday/today, I think.kle4 said:
Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.The_Apocalypse said:You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
Tory majority 30-50 at best.0 -
We all people like free sweets, but the yougov labour numbers indicate some kind of insanity is effecting over 1/3 of the population.
Sure hope Crosby is playing rope a dope.0 -
Bring on the Coalition of Chaos. All it needs is a little tactical voting.TheScreamingEagles said:The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!
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I seem to remember someone called the US presidential election for Clinton on the basis of responses to questions like those in exit polls.Mortimer said:
Those supplementaries are fantastic for May.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I know.... I work for one! The problem is defining what is expected from GPs. The contract isn't specific.ReallyEvilMuffin said:
It is a rather odd situation and some bizzare elements, however at the same time also extremely efficient. No other care is funded all you can eat per patient; instead they are funded per contact. Those that get handed back to the health board and run centrally are much more costly per patient and are quick to be given back out to anyone wishing to take the contract on.Freggles said:
They are half right.... more like because the private contractors model is annoying and vague!ReallyEvilMuffin said:
The amusing thing about GPs being private businesses is that many labour leaning GPs are convinced that the government is trying to collapse the private contractor model and turn it into a salaried service. Supposedly to make it easier to sell to private companies.Freggles said:
Because they are the sole purchaser. They make the contracts.gettingbetter said:
So how come it is the government's fault if people can't get appointmenta?SeanT said:
I never knew that, for one.Rhubarb said:
You'd be surprised at how many people don't know that most GP practices are private businesses.David_Evershed said:
It is no secret that most GP practices are private businesses.The_Apocalypse said:Many on the left think the Tories will privatise the NHS.
Also most mental health and community services like district nurses are paid per contract, but yeah your general gist is dead right.
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If Nick Timothy isn't hanging from a Downing Street window tomorrow morning then Theresa May is a bigger idiot than she seems. The man is a walking disaster. His policies are all crap and he wants to raise taxes on the Tory base. Fucking get this guy out of our party before he ruins us.TheScreamingEagles said:The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!
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Yes, that's a given, but in which direction?Razedabode said:Having just seen that yougov poll, I think we're on for another polling disaster
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New thread....0
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It's been said they would do that for weeks. Either it is not working or it is too late. The details are clear - people give May much higher scores than Corbyn, so she might well outperform the headline VI figure, but it won't be a wipeout for Labour even if she does, unless it is by almost doubling it.HYUFD said:
The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border controlTheScreamingEagles said:
Any attempt by the Tories to bring out the security stuff now will look desperate and a distraction technique, they waited too long.0 -
The Conservative majority will be over 100. I have spoken.0
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Bold to say this so close to Manchester though.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, this isn't a particularly radical POV.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed, I think it is a commonplace that our foreign policy over the last 15 years have made the world a more dangerous place, with MENA a cluster of failed states.The_Apocalypse said:You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him?
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
Even Farage says that.
My gut tells me could be disastrous but I don't really know.0 -
Because she didn't do anything. The second she opens her mouth it goes tits up. Ever since she became Pm. Name one good, well presented articulate policy since she became PM. Just one.....SeanT said:If TMay gets under a 30 seat majority, or actually loses that majority, then she will be gone within a few days. She will be OVER.
And she was Lady of all She Surveyed ten days ago. Incredible.0 -
Sean,have you worked out how much in extra taxes you will have to pay with a labour win ;-)SeanT said:There is a comic side to all of this. Somewhere.
Remember brexit and trump ;-)0 -
When Labour were at 25% they were too high . When they reached 30% pb Tories said that was too high . Then they hit 34/35% , outliers they all cried . Now it is 38% a net swing now albeit a small one since 2015 from Con to Lab0
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Yes, not everybody, but it was the general consenus.kle4 said:
Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.The_Apocalypse said:You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
Tory majority 30-50 at best.
YouGov poll fieldwork was after the event (done on Wednesday/Thursday).0 -
Will YouGov 5% Con Lead in 2017 be remembered like the ICM 5% Lab lead in 1997?0
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If it wasn't for Corbyn's mistake tonight, that might have happened.foxinsoxuk said:
Bring on the Coalition of Chaos. All it needs is a little tactical voting.TheScreamingEagles said:The Times say the Tory majority will be down to 2 seats!
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Now that Mr. Corbyn has openly attacked British foreign policy, he has opened the doors for the Conservatives and others to attack his and his colleagues records on security and terror. Let's see what happens over the next few days... No need to panic!0
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Here we go again, headline VI versus leader ratings.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The worst part is that he gave it away for a policy none was asking about. Madness.SeanT said:
There is now a significant chance she will not get a majority. The trend is pretty blood clear.SouthamObserver said:May is going to win easily. Her problems begin on 9th June, when delivery has to begin.
What a fuck up by the Tories. Blowing the whole show. Nick Timothy will be gone. He has to go. Even if she wins. The man who threw away a 150 seat majority, and a chance to erase Labour for a decade or more.
She is in grave danger, as well.0 -
So, let's see.
- We are told that General Election campaigns don't usually change things, that people have made their mind up way before
- In the last election, we were told that the best PM score was a more reliable metric than the raw party political stuff. May leads by a country mile.
- There is plenty of anecdotal data to show that JC is toxic with the WWC
- The Labour Uncut piece stated that, in places like the NE, canvassers were reporting that 1 in 3 2015 Labour voters were deserting the party. This from the same guy who stated a week before the 2015 GE that Labour was in trouble based on what could be gleaned from the early postal votes.
- Older people tend to vote and they remember the IRA etc etc.
Against that, we have the polls. If your Momentum people have decided that influencing the betting odds can change the narrative, then they were surely have worked out that getting yourself up with a polling company (which, let's be honest, they are desperate to have people sign up for them) also makes sense. I would bet money (and I have) that this is what is happening here.
You know what has been the number one topic I have found has come up time and time again post-Manchester? Immigration. As in "we let these people in, it is unbelievable", swiftly followed by "And Corbyn (and the Lib Dems) want to let in more!"
If anyone wants to have a bet it will be a Hung Parliament, please, please, please get in touch.....
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NEW THREAD
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Do the Lib Dems believe Labour are at 38% then?MarkSenior said:When Labour were at 25% they were too high . When they reached 30% pb Tories said that was too high . Then they hit 34/35% , outliers they all cried . Now it is 38% a net swing now albeit a small one since 2015 from Con to Lab
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Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.0
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If she does then all the Corbynitas will be convinced that the election was somehow 'stolen'.SouthamObserver said:May is going to win easily. Her problems begin on 9th June, when delivery has to begin.
It will be very difficult for the moderates to get back control of the Labour party.0 -
It sounds rather as though the Tory lead would have been down to zero by now if it hadn't been for the terrorist attack.TheScreamingEagles said:From The Times
The shift comes after a hostile reception to manifesto proposals forcing elderly people who need care at home to pay a potentially unlimited sum from their estate. After four days of pressure Mrs May changed the policy on Monday and announced a cap. The drop in Tory support appears to have come before the terrorist attack on Monday.
At the start of the election campaign Mrs May had personal approval ratings of 10 per cent. They dropped into negative territory for the first time on Monday, reaching minus 7 per cent, before returning to plus 1 per cent in yesterday’s poll. Mr Corbyn’s ratings began on minus 42 per cent and peaked on Monday at minus 11 per cent, dropping to minus 16 per cent yesterday. The parties are almost neck and neck in terms of how favourably they are regarded, with Labour on minus 8 per cent and the Conservatives on minus 7 per cent. YouGov interviewed 2,052 adults on Wednesday and yesterday.
What will happen when people's attention returns to the campaign?0 -
Tories are on 43% and that is a fantastic score. It looks like it has barely changed. Its very hard to rationally expect it to be much higher, 45% possibly. UKIP have collapsed and the LDs have disappeared. Labour are of course bribing the electorate with their own money perhaps that is where the LDs have disappeared to.SeanT said:This is catastrophic. TMay has blown it - against JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN
She won't last a month as "leader of a coalition".
Corbyn is reverting to type and waving the surrender flag to islamic terrorism aimed at winning hegemony over the west and being left alone to pursue its evil policies (too many to list). Perhaps thats what voters want. Personally it disgusts me and I hope he is shafted by it.0
