politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead
Comments
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So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.SeanT said:
The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.Floater said:
its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
So, no
No wonder nothing gets done eh.0 -
Tories 9 ahead in the eye of the storm.0
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Called it...... read the spin before the ball left his hand0
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Trends, trends, trends...Scott_P said:0 -
@ShippersUnbound: Corbyn's Labour is now polling 5 points higher than Ed Miliband got in 2015. The thing about populism is that it can be popular0
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I thought Labour is at 35. LD goes up to 9. What's not to like ?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 34 (+2) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
Right = 44 + 3 = 47.0 -
Starts preparing for Canadian asylum questions....0
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Let me introduce you to the Bedroom tax.Floater said:
So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.SeanT said:
The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.Floater said:
its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
So, no
No wonder nothing gets done eh.0 -
Labour polling as high as GE2005? Seriously?0
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Oh noes, 44%, more than Blair got in 1997!0
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Corbyn on 35 even in an outlier with temporary effects is still a damning indictment0
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So now the big question - is this the high point for Lab, or are the Tories really doing that badly and this will be sustained?
The other question - will Lab supporters be as overexcited by single polls as Tories?0 -
Large net and tranquilliser gun to PB Tory supporters homes please.0
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Sean, more pertinently, this has not yet been fully aired. When aunty is going to talk to mother and grandma butts in..................oh, hell !SeanT said:OK DOUBTERS.
Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.
I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.
HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY
Don't worry ! LABOUR CANNOT WIN !0 -
HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAScott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: Corbyn's Labour is now polling 5 points higher than Ed Miliband got in 2015. The thing about populism is that it can be popular
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49% was too high. This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%.HaroldO said:Uff, that is a big change in a week.
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Evil Tories v. Evil Terrorist-loving Labour?surbiton said:
Dirty, nasty, sleazy, panic-stricken Tories on the slide !TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Do you remember the Community charge or the Poll Tax ?kle4 said:
Let me introduce you to the Bedroom tax.Floater said:
So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.SeanT said:
The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.Floater said:
its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
So, no
No wonder nothing gets done eh.0 -
#35 is still less that 44, ergo the many still support the tories.bigjohnowls said:0 -
What alternative do you propose?The_Apocalypse said:Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
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Lol. No outlier. Self inflicted stupidity. Name one well explained and thought out policy since TM became PM. Not being Corbyn isn't and shouldn't be enough.Sunil_Prasannan said:OUTLIER KLAXON
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I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....0
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Ah, but how many of those who really care are in a position to make a difference to the election?Wulfrun_Phil said:
There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.Sandpit said:Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.
It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)
Your average home in the Midlands is worth substantially less than £200,000. Most of that value would be preserved. In the North and Wales, it's less than that.
The people most likely to be affected by this policy are, surprise surprise, wealthy homeowners and their heirs in Southern England, who (a) mostly inhabit safe seats and (b) can only rescue themselves from this policy by voting for a socialist, whom they must suspect would tax the crap out of them in the end, whatever he says to get their vote.
The care policy could have a price, but it's liable to be modest, and to be concentrated disproportionately in those constituencies where it will do the least amount of harm. The policy may simply have the effect of making the Conservatives' voter distribution more efficient, rather than depriving them of any meaningful number of MPs.0 -
CON: 44% (-1)
LAB: 35% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (-3)
Tonights YG TMICIPM0 -
@ShippersUnbound: David Davis says he's prepared to walk away from Brexit talks if EU won't compromise on money. Exclusive interview in Sunday Times0
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Poor Ed Miliband - he doesn't deserve to see Corbyn easily outperform him.0
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@ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times
On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them0 -
FFS0
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I think I smell a dead cat.Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: David Davis says he's prepared to walk away from Brexit talks if EU won't compromise on money. Exclusive interview in Sunday Times
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National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.ThreeQuidder said:
What alternative do you propose?The_Apocalypse said:Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
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Everyone seems (I think) to agree that the Tory policy (whether or not it is a long term solution) is a large improvement on the current position for those unfortunate enough to have to secure long term care in a home (can defer the costs until death, and an increase in the floor from £23k to £100k).
From some angles it is, however worse for those needing care in the home. But how much does care in the home cost? It must, surely, be significantly lower than moving to a care home (which was quoted at £30k a year). And can be reduced further if relatives (those who lose out on a bit of their inheritance) help out. Even if it was, say, £10k a year, the dementia sufferer has to live quite a long time before the inheritance of those with large houses in the South are going to be massively affected.0 -
I told the many PB Tories that the lead will be circa 10% this week and how right I am....
Probably this is peak Labour but let's savour it!0 -
Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.0 -
That at least was a tax. This isn't, nor was HB reform.surbiton said:
Do you remember the Community charge or the Poll Tax ?kle4 said:
Let me introduce you to the Bedroom tax.Floater said:
So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.SeanT said:
The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.Floater said:
its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
They only have to elect Labour to keep it.kle4 said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
So, no
No wonder nothing gets done eh.0 -
They stay at home, and buy dementia care.Freggles said:
How many people do you reckon go to the shops and buy dementia?Ishmael_Z said:
I bought a bar of chocolate this morning and had to pay every bloody penny of the price out of my own pocket. Bloody Chocolate Tax.nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
Are you feeling alright?0 -
The_Apocalypse said:
I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....
https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg0 -
Yes, she does - but how does an open admission of indecisiveness and weakness help her appear strong and stable or look like the best person to negotiate Brexit?SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
She'll double down, refuse to admit her errors, and go hard on a negative campaign on Corbyn, which will just make the Tories look even more like the nasty party, and on the back foot.
Pass the smelling salts...0 -
Labour polling as high as GE2005? Seriously?SeanT said:OK DOUBTERS.
Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.
I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.
HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY0 -
I qualify. I do not live anywhere near Manchester.ThreeQuidder said:
I must say, I am shocked to find out that someone from Surbiton turned out to be a Man U fan.surbiton said:
We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.0 -
Why? 44% is higher than any Tory leader got since Heath in 1970, it could have been far worseSeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.0 -
Not bold enoughkle4 said:Poor Ed Miliband - he doesn't deserve to see Corbyn easily outperform him.
Many of the Many have had enough
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy is a step too far0 -
#ToxicTories stealing money from old age pensioners in the south to send it to Scotland.
Oh Theresa what have you done...0 -
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Let me whisper this one: Has anyone baxtered this yet ?0
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Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.0 -
kyf_100 said:Floater said:kyf_100 said:chrisb said:
Well, as it would have meant my wife's family sharing a 100k rather than the current 23K they seem to have come out ahead haven't they?kyf_100 said:
What would you prefer to call it? A death duty? A charge on any poor sod unlucky enough to lose their marbles? A mugging of grannies who've worked hard and saved all their lives? An assault on the small c conservative lower middle classes?Charles said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh thoughuni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
Answers on the back of a postcard, please.
A very strange tax which gives you more than you would currently get.
Or do you see it as a tax reduction?0 -
That would be demented - the whole point is that the Tories are making tough decisions on policies when Labour are living in fantasy land, if they just drop it wholesale they'll be pressured to drop half the manifesto eventually.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
They need to clarify it, and how they are addressing a problem when no one else is proposing to, and so minimise the damage.
Take the hit, in exchange for a free hand to act in the area when they win.0 -
NB This evening's main BBC news bulletin:
Trump first headline
Labour's Trident woes second
No mention of dementia taxes0 -
Single figures!0
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I was a visionary. From four weeks ago.
Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could
....5) Whisper it very carefully, Mrs May might not actually be that popular
First of all there’s the polling that shows her popularity is equally down to her not being Jeremy Corbyn nor would she be losing the majority of the Tory gains from the Lib Dems that her election strategist found, a PM with polling leads of 25% really shouldn’t be doing that.
People compare her to Mrs Thatcher, but what has Mrs May really achieved that is comparable to Mrs Thatcher had prior to her 1983 and 1987 landslides? No war won, no massive reform of the UK, so far only a slogan, ‘Brexit means Brexit.’
Plus Mrs May’s a crap campaigner, no wonder she’s frightened to meet real voters or to debate Corbyn, given her failure to consistently crush him at PMQs. Macavity May hid during the EU referendum, as PM she can’t hide during a general election campaign. Mrs May is a crap campaigner, this is a narrative I and others expect to develop, especially if she refuses to debate Corbyn and the other party leaders.0 -
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:The_Apocalypse said:I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....
https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
This poll is peak Labour.0 -
If we can Brexit, we can Corbyn.0
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Putting up general taxation?The_Apocalypse said:
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.ThreeQuidder said:
What alternative do you propose?The_Apocalypse said:Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
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Dementia in the elderly normally gets worse.alex. said:Everyone seems (I think) to agree that the Tory policy (whether or not it is a long term solution) is a large improvement on the current position for those unfortunate enough to have to secure long term care in a home (can defer the costs until death, and an increase in the floor from £23k to £100k).
From some angles it is, however worse for those needing care in the home. But how much does care in the home cost? It must, surely, be significantly lower than moving to a care home (which was quoted at £30k a year). And can be reduced further if relatives (those who lose out on a bit of their inheritance) help out. Even if it was, say, £10k a year, the dementia sufferer has to live quite a long time before the inheritance of those with large houses in the South are going to be massively affected.
You may start out with home care, but you will usually end up with residential care.
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This is the day the polls turned...0
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Question, does anyone actually make sure the kids eat these presumably healthy, free meals, rather than say pick at the bits they like and bin what they don't want? Genuine question, I know little of this policy and its one I like the sound of, but I have no idea if we know it actually works.calum said:0 -
@ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet0
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If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.kyf_100 said:You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
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The EU will be happy for a flounce out. It will only demonstrate that they have the upper hand when we're forced back to the table.Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: David Davis says he's prepared to walk away from Brexit talks if EU won't compromise on money. Exclusive interview in Sunday Times
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Indeed. As Cameron found out just months after winning a general election, people can just as easily take it all away again.bigjohnowls said:kle4 said:Poor Ed Miliband - he doesn't deserve to see Corbyn easily outperform him.
Many of the Many have had enough
The voters have had it up to here... They are in revolutionary mood... That's what Brexit was. A revolution. They could just as easily produce another one if pushed.
Theresa May is a fool if not to understand this.0 -
Time to cash out some of my NOM.The_Apocalypse said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:The_Apocalypse said:I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....
https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
This poll is peak Labour.0 -
I predicted 44/35 but dont see it lasting unless TM is smoked out and continues to show how apalling she is.murali_s said:I told the many PB Tories that the lead will be circa 10% this week and how right I am....
Probably this is peak Labour but let's savour it!0 -
Jimmy HillScott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet
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@ShippersUnbound: Labour sources not close to Corbyn say anecdotally that Tory manifesto has driven a lot of doorstep chats back their way0
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Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)0 -
TMay: You had one job.
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TMICIPMsurbiton said:Let me whisper this one: Has anyone baxtered this yet ?
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You choose to buy chocolate. You don't choose to get dementia. To compare them is ridiculous.Ishmael_Z said:
They stay at home, and buy dementia care.
Are you feeling alright?
Paying the local authority for services and calling it a contribution to care costs comes out of your pocket just like Council Tax.is it a tax? No. Is the distinction meaningful? Not really, unless you're talking about whether we should pool the risk of social care costs relating to illness.0 -
They're going to walk this with a little bit of a tweak on care thresholds.OUT said:
The calm bit of the storm.chestnut said:Tories 9 ahead in the eye of the storm.
In front by 9 and 12 when people are thinking their inheritances are going to be confiscated???
This really could be brutal if they get the tweak right.0 -
Some figures here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39957879alex. said:Everyone seems (I think) to agree that the Tory policy (whether or not it is a long term solution) is a large improvement on the current position for those unfortunate enough to have to secure long term care in a home (can defer the costs until death, and an increase in the floor from £23k to £100k).
From some angles it is, however worse for those needing care in the home. But how much does care in the home cost? It must, surely, be significantly lower than moving to a care home (which was quoted at £30k a year). And can be reduced further if relatives (those who lose out on a bit of their inheritance) help out. Even if it was, say, £10k a year, the dementia sufferer has to live quite a long time before the inheritance of those with large houses in the South are going to be massively affected.
£16.70 per hour for home care it says so £6000 per year for one hour a day. I have no idea how many hours/day is usual.0 -
Wel crosby is going to have to start earning his money!!!0
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I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.ThreeQuidder said:
Putting up general taxation?The_Apocalypse said:
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.ThreeQuidder said:
What alternative do you propose?The_Apocalypse said:Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
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I'm surprised. But kudos to you. Red faces all round.SeanT said:OK DOUBTERS.
Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.
I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.
HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY0 -
Labour's last LEAD in an opinion poll was 26th April 2016!!!!The_Apocalypse said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:The_Apocalypse said:I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....
https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
This poll is peak Labour.0 -
YesAndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)0 -
@ShippersUnbound: BBC plotting to means test the free TV licence. See Sunday Times0
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lets not forget that people said polls would close when tories had a huge lead and people might be nervous of a huge majority.Freggles said:Corbyn on 35 even in an outlier with temporary effects is still a damning indictment
People will be more than nervous of what Corbyn would mean as pm.0 -
That doesn't suggest the labour surge is due solely to social care. The Tories have also only slipped by one point. I think this is polarisation to a two party fight. The Tory share is relatively firm but showing a little sign of buckling, it's all about labour support on the up. They are running out of votes to squeeze though......Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times
On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them0 -
It's a LD policy too - but saying you want one is not really a policy, unless you say it will be paid for, and they have no idea how it will be as it admits in the manifesto (the LDs at least address how they intend to pay for initial increases in social care). The manifesto also says that it won't truly be in place even in 2022.The_Apocalypse said:
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.ThreeQuidder said:
What alternative do you propose?The_Apocalypse said:Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
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The Tories are fucked and they have fucked themselves on this. I know what they were trying to do, I kid of see that the WFA and care home payment policies are possibly fairer than what we have now and I am sure they thought this would actually win votes, but the impression given is terrible. I can't see how they turn this round. Abandonment would be fatal to the strong and stable message, ploughing on will just force millions of potential Tory voters to either not bother or vote elsewhere.
Corbyn won't win the election but May has basically ensured she will get a 2015 style result not a 100+ majority and the decimation of Labour.0 -
Wouldn't tweaking a policy after the manifestos are published look even worse? Clarifying is one thing, but tweaking?chestnut said:
They're going to walk this with a little bit of a tweak on care thresholds.OUT said:
The calm bit of the storm.chestnut said:Tories 9 ahead in the eye of the storm.
In front by 9 and 12 when people are thinking their inheritances are going to be confiscated???
This really could be brutal if they get the tweak right.0 -
.....during this election campaign.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Labour's last LEAD in an opinion poll was 26th April 2016!!!!The_Apocalypse said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:The_Apocalypse said:I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....
https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
This poll is peak Labour.0 -
Blimey, panicking this early is a bit much.0
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Ah, here we go:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866031653315129348
Now, what do we notice about the jump in the Labour vote? The Con figure has dropped only within MoE; the Lab increase is equal to the drop in the Ukip vote.
YouGov's numbers are all over the place. Ukip from 6 to 3 to 6 and back to 3 again in the last four surveys. And the Conservatives have yo-yo'd as well - they were also on 44% twice last month.
It's a mess. Does anyone know when ICM are next publishing?0 -
Hardly - plenty of people said there would be a poll hit, they just argue that panicking is not the answer and questioned how big a hit it would be.bobajobPB said:
I'm surprised. But kudos to you. Red faces all round.SeanT said:OK DOUBTERS.
Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.
I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.
HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY0 -
Will Mrs May become the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS?0
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LOL! As PB goes mad, Betfair's not moved an inch.0
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People should be more nervous.Floater said:
lets not forget that people said polls would close when tories had a huge lead and people might be nervous of a huge majority.Freggles said:Corbyn on 35 even in an outlier with temporary effects is still a damning indictment
People will be more than nervous of what Corbyn would mean as pm.0 -
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?AndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%0 -
I don't know. I was hoping you or @BlackRook could tell me. I'm going to have to Google RodCrosby, aren't I?...AndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
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NOAndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)0
