politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%
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Estimations on TF1 have increased Macron to 65.7% (up 0.2). Good sign for me, keep Le Pen in that 30-35% band!0
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Well, 34.5% is a damn sight better than 22%Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Well it wasn't a straight fight between SNP and the Tories was it?surbiton said:
Well, 34.5% is a damn sight better than 22%Theuniondivvie said:0 -
France update with 94% of communes reporting
Macron 61.3%
Le Pen 38.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Yeah, this is exactly what I was talking about. I'm not happy she lost anywhere near as I'm worried she got a third of the vote.murali_s said:
Let me be. The fascist got thumped!Sunil_Prasannan said:Who will be the first PBer to brand 35% of the French electorate "Fascist"?
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How do they do it in France, do communes send in periodic reports as they count?HYUFD said:France update with 94% of communes reporting
Macron 61.3%
Le Pen 38.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Give me virtue signalling over lack-of-virtue signalling any day.bobajobPB said:
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:0 -
Mr Glenn, are you suggesting that it is the EU that is Strong and Stable? It could well be....foxinsoxuk said:
We have decided to have another go with the Continental System that failed for Napoleon.williamglenn said:Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.
And now we hear that Mrs May is having to bring in yet another foreigner to do her dirty work for her. She and her team are just too weak and muddling.
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Well she thought, with some justification, that anti-EU would be more "respectable" than being openly racist.Paristonda said:Jean Marie Le Pen blames Marine's defeat on her preoccupation with opposing the EU. Blames Florian Phillipot as the principal architect of her defeat (Florian is the one that has shaped her overall anti-EU strategy since taking over).
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In round 1 there was a website that had the highest and lowest possible votes of the candidates based on sampling and votes actually counted.paulyork64 said:
Noone can remember where it was though
So for instance is Macron 65.2 - 66.3 or is he 64 - 68 still ?0 -
What's wrong with bringing in a talented foreigner?PClipp said:
Mr Glenn, are you suggesting that it is the EU that is Strong and Stable? It could well be....foxinsoxuk said:
We have decided to have another go with the Continental System that failed for Napoleon.williamglenn said:Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.
And now we hear that Mrs May is having to bring in yet another foreigner to do her dirty work for her. She and her team are just too weak and muddling.
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A final result from Vosges
Macron 55.25 (+35.39) Le Pen 44.75 (+16.73)
The numbers in brackets are the changes compared to Primary Vote Share0 -
Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.0
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Ah thanks. Thought it was a betfair thing. Sounds worth finding so good luck.Pulpstar said:
In round 1 there was a website that had the highest and lowest possible votes of the candidates based on sampling and votes actually counted.paulyork64 said:
Noone can remember where it was though
So for instance is Macron 65.2 - 66.3 or is he 64 - 68 still ?0 -
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to MacronChameleon said:Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)0 -
Just had a run through my browser history for that day, and checked all the links that ended .fr and couldn't see any similar display. It's possible that the site isn't doing that for this round?Pulpstar said:
In round 1 there was a website that had the highest and lowest possible votes of the candidates based on sampling and votes actually counted.paulyork64 said:
Noone can remember where it was though
So for instance is Macron 65.2 - 66.3 or is he 64 - 68 still ?0 -
Alpes -de -Haute - Provence
Macron 58.46 (+38.44) Le Pen 41.54 (+17.01)0 -
English is probably the best language in the world!bobajobPB said:
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:0 -
You are not Jean-Claude Juncker and I claim my £5.Sunil_Prasannan said:
English is probably the best language in the world!bobajobPB said:
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:0 -
JackW said:
Has Charlie Falconer completed the initial part of his speech ?HYUFD said:Macron just finished is victory speech
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.Freggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
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Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.Pulpstar said:
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to MacronChameleon said:Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)0 -
Striking achievement for Macron and indeed Hollande.0
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Actually it predominately hits Islamic Germans.rcs1000 said:
The AfD has the same problem a lot of European Eurosceptic parties have: it's split between those who don't like the EU because it's too protectionist (Bernd Lucke and Hans-Olaf Henkel) and those who don't like it because its too free market (Frauke Petry).Alanbrooke said:
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.SouthamObserver said:
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.Alanbrooke said:
no it isntSouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
(Edit to add: the AfD recently had a big fight about whether or not to ban male circumcision. Word of advice guys: something that predominantly hits Jewish Germans might draw some unhelpful comparisons.)
According to the 2011 census, Islam is the second religion after Christianity in Germany with 1.9% of the population being followers. (Since that time it is estimated that over a million followers of the Islamic Faith have come to Germany as refugees).
The percentage of followers of the Jewish faith according to the 2011 census was only 0.1%.
I suspect that the AfD is more anti-Islam than anti-Jewish, but either stance is hideous IMHO.0 -
Lot
Macron 72.11 (+45.46) Le Pen 27.89 (+11.86)0 -
I'm going to be honest, even though we have no error bars I expect it'll be very close to 65.7 on the basis that the projection has moved 65.1 -> 65.5 -> 65.7 as results have come in.Chameleon said:
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.Pulpstar said:
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to MacronChameleon said:Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)0 -
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So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.bobajobPB said:JackW said:
Has Charlie Falconer completed the initial part of his speech ?HYUFD said:Macron just finished is victory speech
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.Freggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
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Yeah, the projection moving away from 65.0 isn't a particularly good sign. Then again the fact that not many cities are reporting yet still keeps an element of doubt in the air.Pulpstar said:
I'm going to be honest, even though we have no error bars I expect it'll be very close to 65.7 on the basis that the projection has moved 65.1 -> 65.5 -> 65.7 as results have come in.Chameleon said:
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.Pulpstar said:
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to MacronChameleon said:Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)0 -
I don't know who appointed you as site policeman (other than yourself) but it really is laughable. Check my posts, I was only asking MonikerThreeQuidder said:
Oh, come off it.bobajobPB said:
Nobody is bullying anyone.ThreeQuidder said:
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.
Vice trumpeting?foxinsoxuk said:
Give me virtue signalling over lack-of-virtue signalling any day.bobajobPB said:
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:0 -
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If people stopped tritely virtue signalling I could concentrate on my better posts.bobajobPB said:
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:
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Estimate moves to 65.8% now (FR24)
65.7 on TF1.
So a bit of a polling miss in all honesty.0 -
I seem to recall you (or an alias) doing the same during the US election, demanding to see people's predictions.bobajobPB said:
I don't know who appointed you as site policeman (other than yourself) but it really is laughable. Check my posts, I was only asking MonikerThreeQuidder said:
Oh, come off it.bobajobPB said:
Nobody is bullying anyone.ThreeQuidder said:
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.0 -
Sorry. I'll get my coat.paulyork64 said:0 -
Would be fairer!RobD said:
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.bobajobPB said:JackW said:
Has Charlie Falconer completed the initial part of his speech ?HYUFD said:Macron just finished is victory speech
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.Freggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
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In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.bobajobPB said:
Would be fairer!RobD said:
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.bobajobPB said:JackW said:
Has Charlie Falconer completed the initial part of his speech ?HYUFD said:Macron just finished is victory speech
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.Freggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
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Presumably though the Exit poll fully accounts for variable turnout.Chameleon said:
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.Pulpstar said:
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to MacronChameleon said:Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)0 -
In all fairness the polling for round one slightly over predicted MLP (by about 2% iirc). I'm sympathetic to the pollsters though, guessing where the first rounders will go and turnout levels must be a very difficult task.Pulpstar said:Estimate moves to 65.8% now (FR24)
65.7 on TF1.
So a bit of a polling miss in all honesty.0 -
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly EuroscepticMarkHopkins said:0 -
Are people really so gullible that they've backed the Conservatives in to only 4/1 to win Sheffield Hallam ???
These are 2016 local election results in Sheffield Hallam:
LibD 15,940
Lab 8,990
Con 3,584
For those who aren't willing to do their own research the 12/1 on a Conservative win in Leeds NW is preferable, the 2016 local election results in that constituency being:
LibD 7,942
Lab 6,593
Con 5,537
Or indeed 16/1 with Shadsy.0 -
96% in from France
Macron 62%
Le Pen 38%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
From the early results it looks like Macron picks up transfers at a rate of approximately 4:1 in areas where he was ahead, and 2:1 in areas where Le Pen was ahead in the primary.0
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Yeah, however if the turnout levels they get in the sampled regions aren't quite accurate then the poll may be very slightly out.alex. said:
Presumably though the Exit poll fully accounts for variable turnout.Chameleon said:
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.Pulpstar said:
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to MacronChameleon said:Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)0 -
It was I, Bobajob. What is wrong with asking people for predictions? It's a betting site. At lot of people submitted maps, it was entertaining. WilliamGlenn was the closest – was almost bang on.RobD said:
I seem to recall you (or an alias) doing the same during the US election, demanding to see people's predictions.bobajobPB said:
I don't know who appointed you as site policeman (other than yourself) but it really is laughable. Check my posts, I was only asking MonikerThreeQuidder said:
Oh, come off it.bobajobPB said:
Nobody is bullying anyone.ThreeQuidder said:
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.0 -
The pattern is repeated everywhere, the cities vote left and the countryside votes right as a baseline. The strength (Or not) of the candidates then decides how far off the baseline this will be. Of course there are specific exceptions (Old coalfields here in the sticks) but its a global pattern and I expect long term the coalfields here will trend long term Tory with the big cities long term Labour.Chameleon said:
In all fairness the polling for round one slightly over predicted MLP (by about 2% iirc). I'm sympathetic to the pollsters though, guessing where the first rounders will go and turnout levels must be a very difficult task.Pulpstar said:Estimate moves to 65.8% now (FR24)
65.7 on TF1.
So a bit of a polling miss in all honesty.0 -
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.HYUFD said:
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly EuroscepticMarkHopkins said:0 -
They haven't counted Paris.HYUFD said:96% in from France
Macron 62%
Le Pen 38%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!bobajobPB said:
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.HYUFD said:
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly EuroscepticMarkHopkins said:0 -
The thing we need to remember is that perhaps 10% of the British population know anything about the policy positions of the French presidential candidates. Therefore, most people are reacting to what they do know, which is Le Pen is generally described as "Fascist". That's enough for a significant number of Leavers, though not a majority, to think "if she's being attacked like that she must have something going for her".logical_song said:
Alastair was pointing out facts, that's not a particular nasty thing to do.ab195 said:
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
Do you not see a correlation between Leavers, Trump and Le Pen supporters. Obviously it's not anywhere near 100%, but it looks closer than random.0 -
That NY Times map is beautiful.0
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Dougie is admittedly an extreme example, but you can't argue that it would be fairer. Ukip got 13% of the votes at GE 2015!RobD said:
In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.bobajobPB said:
Would be fairer!RobD said:
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.bobajobPB said:JackW said:
Has Charlie Falconer completed the initial part of his speech ?HYUFD said:Macron just finished is victory speech
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.Freggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
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The trend over the last week, and after the debate in particular, was momentum to Macron. I think the French pollsters have had another good night.Chameleon said:
In all fairness the polling for round one slightly over predicted MLP (by about 2% iirc). I'm sympathetic to the pollsters though, guessing where the first rounders will go and turnout levels must be a very difficult task.Pulpstar said:Estimate moves to 65.8% now (FR24)
65.7 on TF1.
So a bit of a polling miss in all honesty.0 -
Maybe, but hugely open to abuse. Way too much power for one MP IMO.bobajobPB said:
Dougie is admittedly an extreme example, but you can't argue that it would be fairer. Ukip got 13% of the votes at GE 2015!RobD said:
In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.bobajobPB said:
Would be fairer!RobD said:
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.bobajobPB said:JackW said:
Has Charlie Falconer completed the initial part of his speech ?HYUFD said:Macron just finished is victory speech
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.Freggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
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Not at all. It shows how utterly fucking shite Corbyn and his merry gang of jokers are.HYUFD said:
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!bobajobPB said:
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.HYUFD said:
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly EuroscepticMarkHopkins said:0 -
30-35 is still 1.07 and not shifting much in last few mins.HYUFD said:96% in from France
Macron 62%
Le Pen 38%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Careful, HUYFD....we've been down this path before!HYUFD said:96% in from France
Macron 62%
Le Pen 38%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Are there any other examples in modern history of one MP wielding so many votes? (Not saying there aren't, genuinely interested)RobD said:
Maybe, but hugely open to abuse. Way too much power for one MP IMO.bobajobPB said:
Dougie is admittedly an extreme example, but you can't argue that it would be fairer. Ukip got 13% of the votes at GE 2015!RobD said:
In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.bobajobPB said:
Would be fairer!RobD said:
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.bobajobPB said:JackW said:
Has Charlie Falconer completed the initial part of his speech ?HYUFD said:Macron just finished is victory speech
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.Freggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
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To be fair, under FPTP, it is very likely to be a minority of British voters supporting her position, even if she wins by a landslide.HYUFD said:
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!bobajobPB said:
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.HYUFD said:
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly EuroscepticMarkHopkins said:0 -
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Any idea when the final result will be confirmed? And when Betfair will settle any bets on this?
I went against my stated rule and bet on the outcome I wanted this time.0 -
I hope it goes 37/63% Le Pen/Macron. I do much better on Le Pen 35-40% than Le Pen 30-35%, having followed some PB advice from earlier today, for which many thanks.chestnut said:
They haven't counted Paris.HYUFD said:96% in from France
Macron 62%
Le Pen 38%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
So far no Paris results in and those likely to push Macron over 65%0
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It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.RobD said:That NY Times map is beautiful.
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It is the response of a politician who only defines himself by what he is opposed to. By definition, somebody who should never be given power over anything.Andrew said:
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JackW said:
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ELBOW at 10pm 0
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Betfair should settle overnight.Fysics_Teacher said:Any idea when the final result will be confirmed? And when Betfair will settle any bets on this?
I went against my stated rule and bet on the outcome I wanted this time.
I've bet quite large amounts - down to 1.12 on Macron - and have lot of stake money tied up as well as my winnings
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My Paris correspondent, aka Mrs JackW, has acted for me.foxinsoxuk said:
She found 65.5 of French shoes indicated a clear move front and centre, whereas 34.5% hung badly to the extreme right.0 -
WEM-BER-LEY0
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Oh come on, I'm hard on Corbyn, but there doesn't seem much in that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
A portent of things to come in the UKfoxinsoxuk said:
It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.RobD said:That NY Times map is beautiful.
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Quite a revelation on two counts !! ....kle4 said:
Oh come on, I'm hard on Corbyn, but there doesn't seem much in that.TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
Would I be immodest if I reminded everybody that this result means I continue my unbroken record on winning every[1] political bet I have ever placed?
Why yes. Yes it would.
[1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential0 -
Thanks. I've bet a lot less, but it's nice to win.MikeSmithson said:
Betfair should settle overnight.Fysics_Teacher said:Any idea when the final result will be confirmed? And when Betfair will settle any bets on this?
I went against my stated rule and bet on the outcome I wanted this time.
I've bet quite large amounts - down to 1.12 on Macron - and have lot of stake money tied up as well as my winnings
One more question from a novice: the Betfair Vote Percentage bands: are they UK or GB? I'm assuming UK.0 -
At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.foxinsoxuk said:
It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.RobD said:That NY Times map is beautiful.
Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.0 -
What bunch of muppets put him in charge then?bobajobPB said:
Not at all. It shows how utterly fucking shite Corbyn and his merry gang of jokers are.HYUFD said:
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!bobajobPB said:
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.HYUFD said:
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly EuroscepticMarkHopkins said:
oh0 -
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.0 -
98% in
Macron 62.5%
Le Pen 37.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Congratulations .... the drinks are on you.viewcode said:Would I be immodest if I reminded everybody that this result means I continue my unbroken record on winning every[1] political bet I have ever placed?
Why yes. Yes it would.
[1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential0 -
Yes, that's my point. You were bullying Moniker.bobajobPB said:
I don't know who appointed you as site policeman (other than yourself) but it really is laughable. Check my posts, I was only asking MonikerThreeQuidder said:
Oh, come off it.bobajobPB said:
Nobody is bullying anyone.ThreeQuidder said:
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.0 -
Thank you.JackW said:
Congratulations .... the drinks are on you.viewcode said:Would I be immodest if I reminded everybody that this result means I continue my unbroken record on winning every[1] political bet I have ever placed?
Why yes. Yes it would.
[1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential0 -
If you add in Tories+ UKIP (even now) + DUP, 50%+ of the vote will likely back hard Brexit in the way May has set outfoxinsoxuk said:
To be fair, under FPTP, it is very likely to be a minority of British voters supporting her position, even if she wins by a landslide.HYUFD said:
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!bobajobPB said:
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.HYUFD said:
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly EuroscepticMarkHopkins said:
0 -
Misleading. Highly misleading. Look at the white gaps on all the big cities. None from Paris yet.HYUFD said:98% in
Macron 62.5%
Le Pen 37.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Le Pen may get about 11 Million votes out of about 30 Million.chestnut said:
At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.foxinsoxuk said:
It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.RobD said:That NY Times map is beautiful.
Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
Pretty much exactly the same as the Conservatives in 2015...0 -
The Leave.EU twitter feed just gets worse and worse tonight. Now they're saying France has surrendered to Germany and saved them the bullets.
Brexit is shamed by association.0 -
98% of what exactly? 30-35 drifting now.HYUFD said:98% in
Macron 62.5%
Le Pen 37.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
It's "communes" not votes. Much like saying 96% of states reporting but not California or New York.Pulpstar said:
Misleading. Highly misleading. Look at the white gaps on all the big cities. None from Paris yet.HYUFD said:98% in
Macron 62.5%
Le Pen 37.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
I gather from the URL that this is irony?calum said:0 -
It is the response of someone close to Melenchon.alex. said:
It is the response of a politician who only defines himself by what he is opposed to. By definition, somebody who should never be given power over anything.Andrew said:0 -
Moniker getting bullied?ThreeQuidder said:
Yes, that's my point. You were bullying Moniker.bobajobPB said:
I don't know who appointed you as site policeman (other than yourself) but it really is laughable. Check my posts, I was only asking MonikerThreeQuidder said:
Oh, come off it.bobajobPB said:
Nobody is bullying anyone.ThreeQuidder said:
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.
Ha.
Hahahaha.
Haha.
Moniker's a long established troll who's virtues are an occasional flash of wit and a willingness to give as good as he gets. If he ever turns into a mewling victim complaining about getting bullied, I'm giving up on the internet.0 -
Has anyone seen the Leave.EU twitter ? Pathetic !0
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Yes in this case it is Paris, which is pretty similiar to New York or California politically for these elections.paulyork64 said:
98% of what exactly? 30-35 drifting now.HYUFD said:98% in
Macron 62.5%
Le Pen 37.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00
This discussion has been closed.