Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.
We have decided to have another go with the Continental System that failed for Napoleon.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
a number most certainly did - though, by and large, they seem to be in hiding tonight.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.
Nobody is bullying anyone. Asking dog whistling trolls to state their forecast is not bullying. It's a betting site.
Regarding Mortimer's post – he does that joke regularly. As I have already pointed out, I take it in jest. After all, who cares? One 'multiple screen namer' (Tissue_Price) is now standing as a Tory parliamentary candidate. I hope his dark past doesn't come back to haunt him!
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
He is nicer in person, but I too am baffled by the constant childish "guilt by association" jibes. Where does it get anyone? Even if everyone who voted Leave said they regretted it because a tiny proportion of them thinks Le Pen is better for UK than Macron... so what?
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.
It gives you hope.
Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.
And now he has been embraced by the far right. Farage is his new best buddy. Funnily enough, WikiLeaks never seems able to hack into the emails of far right groups.
Some of us on the left could see he was a wrong 'un all along.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Apparently he has had a meeting, we do not know who initiated the meeting, and his current status is that he has not been engaged by HMG.
That said, we are in a hostile and indeed ridiculous negotiating position so it wouldn't hurt to get some advice. I'm not sure the CV as listed would help here though.
On the subject of Le Pen, I did expect her to loose but by a smaller margin.
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
Absolutely - the British people are just the scum of the earth and the French the saviours of Europe. There that makes you feel better doesn't it.
No, simply pointing out to someone trying to denigrate the turnout today in France that it was still better than we will get next month.
Sounds like your the one working up to a tantrum as the wheels continue to come off the anti-EU bandwagon elsewhere. Germany next - what did happen to that AfD surge?
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
OK,,,that's cool. Think Boba can be forgiven a bit of good old fashioned virtue signalling in the heat of the moment though. And Moniker is a bit odd.
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
You wally.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
Come off it you were gagging for Le Pen to do well on the final debate thread.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.
It gives you hope.
Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.
And now he has been embraced by the far right. Farage is his new best buddy. Funnily enough, WikiLeaks never seems able to hack into the emails of far right groups.
Some of us on the left could see he was a wrong 'un all along.
but the left couldnt spot Corbyn
chortle
Some of us could. Jezza was (is) an Assange fan, of course.
Congratulations to all who made money on Macron. If En Marche does win a majority next month, he could be a strong and charismatic leader somewhere between Blair and Putin. Imagine a France in which all or most government ministers are in the newly-created "president's party". Unlikely, but so was a Macron presidency only little more than a year ago.
Control what editors put in the media and you usually control a country. Le Pen wiped the floor with Macron in the TV debate, in which he was mostly reduced to repeatedly saying "You're lying", but received opinion was that the opposite occurred. The line was that the Rothschild-trained and Jesuit-handled granny botherer put on a splendid performance and came into his own as an oratorically superb ring fighter. The soundbite that a woman was certainly going to run France and the only question was whether it would be Marine Le Pen or Angela Merkel...who remembers that now? Oh how wonderfully Macron did. What did he say? Er, don't remember.
So...that's half of what I made on Leave and Trump gone up in smoke!
I will now look for lower risk investments unconnected with political betting. I wish this site well!
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
no it isnt
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
no it isnt
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
Alastair was pointing out facts, that's not a particular nasty thing to do. Do you not see a correlation between Leavers, Trump and Le Pen supporters. Obviously it's not anywhere near 100%, but it looks closer than random.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazers
Since TMay seems pretty committed to a hard brexit (probably out of realisation its the most likely option), UKIP do seem bereft of ideas and going fully nuts on such topics seems the direction they've chosen.
AS UKIP's plummeting support shows, most people don't support that positioning.
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
no it isnt
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.
Consider how it looks. You come over as attempting to be hurtful. You'll never persuade anyone that way. And if your identity is widely known you'll be offending people before you've even met them.
On the broader point I am acutely aware that some portion of those who voted on that side are unpleasant. But that's true of any vote. Usually one can be on one side of one argument, and another side of the the next, forming different coalitions as you go. You seem to be implying that you won't ever support anyone who voted Leave on anything else on the basis that they are tarred with a certain brush. That's odd, and unhealthy.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
Who will be the first PBer to brand 35% of the French electorate "Fascist"?
Let me be. The fascist got thumped!
She about doubled her father's total in 2002, she lost for now but she did manage to increase her first round vote in a way her father would never have done
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
Last time I checked there was a secret ballot. While they may not be overt in their support, there is nothing stopping them doing whatever they want in the privacy of the voting booth.
Can cover that very easily by putting £2 at 440s on Betfair. When it loses, no bad net effect, if it wins you'll be have blackjack and hookers for days.
Congratulations to all who made money on Macron. If En Marche does win a majority next month, he could be a strong and charismatic leader somewhere between Blair and Putin. Imagine a France in which all or most government ministers are in the newly-created "president's party". Unlikely, but so was a Macron presidency only little more than a year ago.
Control what editors put in the media and you usually control a country. Le Pen wiped the floor with Macron in the TV debate, in which he was mostly reduced to repeatedly saying "You're lying", but received opinion was that the opposite occurred. The line was that the Rothschild-trained and Jesuit-handled granny botherer put on a splendid performance and came into his own as an oratorically superb ring fighter. The soundbite that a woman was certainly going to run France and the only question was whether it would be Marine Le Pen or Angela Merkel...who remembers that now? Oh how wonderfully Macron did. What did he say? Er, don't remember.
So...that's half of what I made on Leave and Trump gone up in smoke!
I will now look for lower risk investments unconnected with political betting. I wish this site well!
No need to depart.
PB is stronger for a diversity of opinion and shouldn't be a echo chamber for the Jacobite cause or fine pie making.
Can cover that very easily by putting £2 at 440s on Betfair. When it loses, no bad net effect, if it wins you'll be have blackjack and hookers for days.
I put £2 on and it got taken at 680. I'd like to find a site with the bloody error bars though, perhaps it doesn't exist this time round
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
You wally.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
Come off it you were gagging for Le Pen to do well on the final debate thread.
I know a lot of people get really hot under the collar about these things and see them as some kind of proxy engagement for other matters closer to home. I'm not one of them.
I'd guess that I'm one of a small number of people on here who isn't a member of any political party for a start.
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
no it isnt
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
Meaningless. Schleswig Holstein is not strong state for the AfD.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
There's still a strong liberal wing in the Tory party.
Whilst I'm no fan of Mrs May, any Tory candidate/member that came out with those views would get expelled from the party by her.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
UKIP grew the right wing vote, and Theresa May has united it.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
What a vile...
If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.
Yes as a LEAVE voter I was and am uncomfortable that a significant number of the people who I voted with are tolerant of fascists. However I had my own reasons for voting the way I did.
As to what I personally do about it? All I can really do is vote tactically against individual politicians, prehaps campaign against them by knocking on doors etc I might campaign against UKIP in Dagenham & Rainham (I don't really live near) for example eventhough I loathe the current Labour party.
But the real question is why are the mainstream politicians losing so much support in the first place. Only people with with real influence and power can truely turn the trend around.
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
You wally.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
Come off it you were gagging for Le Pen to do well on the final debate thread.
I know a lot of people get really hot under the collar about these things and see them as some kind of proxy engagement for other matter closer to home. I'm not one of them.
I'd guess that I'm one of a small number of people on here who isn't a member of any political party for start.
There are plenty who probably aren't members of a party - me for one - though how many do not see everything through a partisan prism may well be less.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
There's still a strong liberal wing in the Tory party.
Whilst I'm no fan of Mrs May, any Tory candidate/member that came out with those views would get expelled from the party by her.
Absolutely. I don't doubt that. I'd just hate to see the party gain support from anti immigration policies because of the votes that attracts.
I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).
1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative 2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat 3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote
I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.
My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows
Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19 on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%
questions I'd ask on this experiment
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here? 2. any better guesses on my numbers here? 3. what do I do about Scotland?
I have a similar sheet. Using your numbers, I come up with a LD national vote share of 9.1%, which is probably a bit low.
My working assumption is that the Conservatives gain 75% of the UKIP vote in each constituency. The LDs gain a small number of Conservatives in very Remain constituencies, and lose to them in very Leave ones. It assumes that in LD/Con marginals, that the LDs get the average of one third of the way back to 2010 levels, and the 2015 vote share + Lab * Remain %. I also assume that Scotland broadly goes the way of the Holyrood elections last year (which might be generous to the SNP, given the results last week).
Plug those together and I get the LDs in the low teens (flat in aggregate vs Cons, +2 from Lab, +2 from SNP). I get a lower nationalist tally, and a very slightly higher Conservative one.
I think that you're right not to base the the predictions solely on the 2015 result, especially as regards the LibDems and UKIP. It must be especially tricky this time because of events such as the election of Corbyn, the LibDems no longer being in a Coalition Government and the fallout of the Referendum.
Can cover that very easily by putting £2 at 440s on Betfair. When it loses, no bad net effect, if it wins you'll be have blackjack and hookers for days.
I put £2 on and it got taken at 680. I'd like to find a site with the bloody error bars though, perhaps it doesn't exist this time round
I had a look at the Derbyshire results.
The swing in E&K was beaten in four or five other wards - Bolsover South and Stavely were two but the highest swing was 19% in Ilkeston East.
If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.
Consider how it looks. You come over as attempting to be hurtful. You'll never persuade anyone that way. And if your identity is widely known you'll be offending people before you've even met them.
On the broader point I am acutely aware that some portion of those who voted on that side are unpleasant. But that's true of any vote. Usually one can be on one side of one argument, and another side of the the next, forming different coalitions as you go. You seem to be implying that you won't ever support anyone who voted Leave on anything else on the basis that they are tarred with a certain brush. That's odd, and unhealthy.
This is not "some portion of those who voted on that side are unpleasant". There is a clear and strong association between those who voted Leave and those who saw Marine Le Pen as the best option for Britain.
If you feel uncomfortable about that, you do me too much credit if you think that it is my words that have done that. Leavers who are appalled by Marine Le Pen need to consider what they share with their erstwhile coalition partners, what new coalitions they might now want and how they are going to defeat those of their erstwhile coalition partners that they now have no affinity with.
But once again, the motto seems to be Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility.
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
no it isnt
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
The AfD has the same problem a lot of European Eurosceptic parties have: it's split between those who don't like the EU because it's too protectionist (Bernd Lucke and Hans-Olaf Henkel) and those who don't like it because its too free market (Frauke Petry).
(Edit to add: the AfD recently had a big fight about whether or not to ban male circumcision. Word of advice guys: something that predominantly hits Jewish Germans might draw some unhelpful comparisons.)
Jean Marie Le Pen blames Marine's defeat on her preoccupation with opposing the EU. Blames Florian Phillipot as the principal architect of her defeat (Florian is the one that has shaped her overall anti-EU strategy since taking over).
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
no it isnt
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
The AfD has the same problem a lot of European Eurosceptic parties have: it's split between those who don't like the EU because it's too protectionist (Bernd Lucke and Hans-Olaf Henkel) and those who don't like it because its too free market (Frauke Petry).
the current AfD spat reminds me of the Green splits in the early 1980s between the Realos and the Fundis.
Popped £2 on Le Pen below 30% at 490-1, just in case for whatever reason things go spectacularly wrong for Le Pen.
That's a v handy insurance policy. I only backed the 30-35 two days ago when the polls had her dipping to 38. I was worried the undecideds would break heavily for macron.
I'm not sure the CV as listed would help here though.
He is the author of one of the prime texts on negotiation, Getting to Yes, and has written multiple other books on negotiation, including 'Getting Past No: Negotiating with Difficult People', and 'The Power of A Positive No'
Having been a negotiator with the FCO for a number of years before going to business school where I studied his work, I can attest that I found many of the ideas from the academic study of negotiation analysis to have been profoundly useful, and wish I had known them earlier. Subsequently, in dealing with the Iraqis and their wmd programmes, I found his works again extremely useful and practical in dealing with Tariq Aziz, Gen Amer Rashid and Comical Ali.
I have no doubt that British Civil Servants could find a lot to learn from this gentleman.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
Last time I checked there was a secret ballot. While they may not be overt in their support, there is nothing stopping them doing whatever they want in the privacy of the voting booth.
You're absolutely right. But if you don't think that the major driver behind Ukips success was dislike of immigration and immigrants then you're living in cloud cuckoo land. Farage made it respectable to express those views with the help of the tabloids using the (understandably) unpopular EU as a focus for voters. That's what killed the BNP..
Popped £2 on Le Pen below 30% at 490-1, just in case for whatever reason things go spectacularly wrong for Le Pen.
That's a v handy insurance policy. I only backed the 30-35 two days ago when the polls had her dipping to 38. I was worried the undecideds would break heavily for macron.
If it came off then I'd be in cloud 9 - for multiple reason.
I'm doubling down on 35.01-40, odds are way too long considering that if the exit poll makes the same error on Le Pen as in the 1st round, she'd just squeak into this bracket.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
Last time I checked there was a secret ballot. While they may not be overt in their support, there is nothing stopping them doing whatever they want in the privacy of the voting booth.
You're absolutely right. But if you don't think that the major driver behind Ukips success was dislike of immigration and immigrants then you're living in cloud cuckoo land. Farage made it respectable to express those views with the help of the tabloids using the (understandably) unpopular EU as a focus for voters. That's what killed the BNP..
Hostility to mass immigration is a common feature of many democracies, and is producing a rightward shift.
Son of a prostitute appears to be the expression being used. Thanks Google. So I'd guess the overall phrase is bascially 'The voters of france are sons of bitches'.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.
Not sure about a system that would have left Douglas Carswell the most powerful man in the country. The downweighting effect this would have had on Scottish MPs would be a problem too
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.
UKIP grew the right wing vote, and Theresa May has united it.
It's united because there's no alternative. Plenty of disenfranchised centre right voters who dislike anything Ukip related. All the time Corbyn and Farron are in situ there's no real choice.
I'm doubling down on 35.01-40, odds are way too long considering that if the exit poll makes the same error on Le Pen as in the 1st round, she'd just squeak into this bracket.
Comments
Regarding Mortimer's post – he does that joke regularly. As I have already pointed out, I take it in jest. After all, who cares? One 'multiple screen namer' (Tissue_Price) is now standing as a Tory parliamentary candidate. I hope his dark past doesn't come back to haunt him!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html
chortle
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.
That said, we are in a hostile and indeed ridiculous negotiating position so it wouldn't hurt to get some advice. I'm not sure the CV as listed would help here though.
On the subject of Le Pen, I did expect her to loose but by a smaller margin.
Sounds like your the one working up to a tantrum as the wheels continue to come off the anti-EU bandwagon elsewhere. Germany next - what did happen to that AfD surge?
Merkel's trip to the US and the way Trump behaved have clearly provided a big boost to her.
Yes it looks like Merkel's personal popularity gave a significant boost to the CDU.
https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/861262869719113728
Macron giving his victory speech - "Guys, guys, I’m sorry, no, there’s a mistake. Madame Le Pen, you won the Presidency."
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/860028250181054464
Sorry if the lack of this info naused anyones betting
Control what editors put in the media and you usually control a country. Le Pen wiped the floor with Macron in the TV debate, in which he was mostly reduced to repeatedly saying "You're lying", but received opinion was that the opposite occurred. The line was that the Rothschild-trained and Jesuit-handled granny botherer put on a splendid performance and came into his own as an oratorically superb ring fighter. The soundbite that a woman was certainly going to run France and the only question was whether it would be Marine Le Pen or Angela Merkel...who remembers that now? Oh how wonderfully Macron did. What did he say? Er, don't remember.
So...that's half of what I made on Leave and Trump gone up in smoke!
I will now look for lower risk investments unconnected with political betting. I wish this site well!
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
Do you not see a correlation between Leavers, Trump and Le Pen supporters. Obviously it's not anywhere near 100%, but it looks closer than random.
On that topic, glad to see the CDU/CSU are bouncing back in the polls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2017
AS UKIP's plummeting support shows, most people don't support that positioning.
Aside from not mentioning their own shite predictions they were extrapolating general election results from the Greater Manchester mayoral election.
And some people wonder why 'experts' are treated with scepticism.
On the broader point I am acutely aware that some portion of those who voted on that side are unpleasant. But that's true of any vote. Usually one can be on one side of one argument, and another side of the the next, forming different coalitions as you go. You seem to be implying that you won't ever support anyone who voted Leave on anything else on the basis that they are tarred with a certain brush. That's odd, and unhealthy.
Sampling won't be that far out though
In their defence, prior to 2016 their stuff was pretty good.
Since Corbyn became Labour leader, he's well and truly screwed political modelling and forecasting.
Honestly, could you imagine typing this the other day
1) Andy Burnham won Trafford
or
2) The Tories won The Tees Valley Mayoral.
Yet both happened.
PB is stronger for a diversity of opinion and shouldn't be a echo chamber for the Jacobite cause or fine pie making.
I'd guess that I'm one of a small number of people on here who isn't a member of any political party for a start.
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
Whilst I'm no fan of Mrs May, any Tory candidate/member that came out with those views would get expelled from the party by her.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
As to what I personally do about it? All I can really do is vote tactically against individual politicians, prehaps campaign against them by knocking on doors etc I might campaign against UKIP in Dagenham & Rainham (I don't really live near) for example eventhough I loathe the current Labour party.
But the real question is why are the mainstream politicians losing so much support in the first place. Only people with with real influence and power can truely turn the trend around.
I will do what Mrs Merkel tells me
France surrendered to germany in 1940
nothing has changed in between
So, it looks the vote was: Macron 48%, Le Pen 27%, Refused to vote 25%.
It must be especially tricky this time because of events such as the election of Corbyn, the LibDems no longer being in a Coalition Government and the fallout of the Referendum.
at least there are some sensible people left in France
The swing in E&K was beaten in four or five other wards - Bolsover South and Stavely were two but the highest swing was 19% in Ilkeston East.
If you feel uncomfortable about that, you do me too much credit if you think that it is my words that have done that. Leavers who are appalled by Marine Le Pen need to consider what they share with their erstwhile coalition partners, what new coalitions they might now want and how they are going to defeat those of their erstwhile coalition partners that they now have no affinity with.
But once again, the motto seems to be Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility.
(Edit to add: the AfD recently had a big fight about whether or not to ban male circumcision. Word of advice guys: something that predominantly hits Jewish Germans might draw some unhelpful comparisons.)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
The pragmatists versus the purists
Having been a negotiator with the FCO for a number of years before going to business school where I studied his work, I can attest that I found many of the ideas from the academic study of negotiation analysis to have been profoundly useful, and wish I had known them earlier. Subsequently, in dealing with the Iraqis and their wmd programmes, I found his works again extremely useful and practical in dealing with Tariq Aziz, Gen Amer Rashid and Comical Ali.
I have no doubt that British Civil Servants could find a lot to learn from this gentleman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1cTiqXWKII