Interesting comments already coming through from French politicians of the mainstream parties. Macron is getting a lot of support from the socialists but Le Républicans are positioning themselves to be the opposition, and will be trying hard to get a majority, or at least a blocking minority, in the Assembly elections. Macron has to be careful not to identify too closely with the socialists, who are very unpopular.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
She must be pretty furious. Assuming the Fillion stuff would have come up anyway, and he came third I believe, I can see why she might assume she might have had a chance if Macron hadn't been there, and may not ever get a better chance again.
Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
If Le Pen had won I doubt she would have been meeting any leaders
Son of a prostitute appears to be the expression being used. Thanks Google. So I'd guess the overall phrase is bascially 'The voters of france are sons of bitches'.
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.
Debout Le France, though, was economically literate, while the Front National was economically populist. DLF wanted lower tariffs. The FN wanted 35% tariffs on everything. DLF wanted to reduce regulation. The FN wanted more worker protections and more government interference.
It's like tying together Farage and Corbyn on the basis that they're both hostile to the EU. It doesn't lead to policy coherence.
All true, but Dupont-Aignan has tied himself to MLP now - you can't walk back from endorsing her, so he may as well go all in!
Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
If Le Pen had won I doubt she would have been meeting any leaders
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.
It gives you hope.
Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.
That is a great movie moment. I particularly love the moment when the fat bloke with a beard punches the air to emphasise his second 'marchez'. Real spine tingle. Very appropriate for tonight!
Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
If Le Pen had won I doubt she would have been meeting any leaders
At some point it would be unavoidable.
Putin, Trump, Merkel, and May would all either want or need to meet her very soon after the election (all for different reasons of course).
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.
It gives you hope.
The guy wants to be the persecuted hero so much, maybe he will finally decide to let himself be arrested and extradited, we can hope.
I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.
The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP
Fair point - I did say "certain" PB Tories.
Thanks for that.
I do think too many on here associate the party with the right of Farage et al when it is absolutely not the case. It does not mean that I want a soft Brexit as we must take back control and have our laws judged by our Supreme Court but I for one welcome immigration to our Country but it must be controlled by our Government.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).
1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative 2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat 3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote
I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.
My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows
Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19 on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%
questions I'd ask on this experiment
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here? 2. any better guesses on my numbers here? 3. what do I do about Scotland?
I have a similar sheet. Using your numbers, I come up with a LD national vote share of 9.1%, which is probably a bit low.
My working assumption is that the Conservatives gain 75% of the UKIP vote in each constituency. The LDs gain a small number of Conservatives in very Remain constituencies, and lose to them in very Leave ones. It assumes that in LD/Con marginals, that the LDs get the average of one third of the way back to 2010 levels, and the 2015 vote share + Lab * Remain %. I also assume that Scotland broadly goes the way of the Holyrood elections last year (which might be generous to the SNP, given the results last week).
Plug those together and I get the LDs in the low teens (flat in aggregate vs Cons, +2 from Lab, +2 from SNP). I get a lower nationalist tally, and a very slightly higher Conservative one.
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'
so she is saying you french are all sons of bitches? So patriotic....
We see it every time the Tories win over here (I presume when Labour do too, but I wasn't paying much attention in 2005 and earlier as I was only 19 and not yet an anorak)
Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
I feel sorry for Cyan's Betfair balance.
Somebody has to be on the other side of the bet...
I did enjoy his stories about how someone he was green on was totally going to win or how one of his reds was just about to collapse no seriously, any moment.
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here?
If we look at the national poll subsamples, the one glaring anomaly I can see is the South (excl London).
Everywhere else points to a substantial Lab-Con swing, but the South is showing a small Tory-Lab move - who knows if it is true?
The Greens polled 5.9% in the SW, 5.2% in the SE and 4.9% in London.
My guess is that many will migrate to Corbyn.
This is from a study performed in 2015:
------------
Ideology: left, liberal – and a fair few former Green voters
Labour’s new members are, as expected, pretty left-wing across the board, although this was also the case, note, for pre-GE2015 members, the vast majority of whom tended to think badly of business and fondly of redistribution. New members and supporters are, though, even more anti-austerity and inclined to think that government spending cuts have gone much too far though. They are also more socially-liberal than pre-GE2015 members. This should not come as a surprise perhaps given the fact that a relatively high number of the post-GE2015 full members and registered supporters voted Green in 2015.
Some 17 per cent of new members voted Green at the general election in 2015- a figure which rises to 20 per cent of registered supporters, 28 per cent of those who first joined as registered supporters and then became full members, and 24 per cent of those who joined the Party after Corbyn became leader. This compares to just 6 per cent of pre-May 2015 members. Even in May 2016, nearly one in ten of those Londoners who joined Labour as members or registered supporters after the general election voted for the Green candidate, Sian Berry, rather than Sadiq Khan.
---------------
I suspect this grouping are bumping up Labour's numbers in the South and stopping them go completely through the floor nationally.
Most of these votes are absolutely pointless though for gaining or retaining seats as they usually sit in rock solid urban Labour seats or rock solid suburban Tory ones.
Examples include 10-15% in Lewisham Deptford, Hackney N, Islington S etc.
Labour's numbers in the polls are usually best with a typical Green voter demographic -under 35, studying etc.
I think Labour are losing valuable votes in marginals and replacing some of them with pointless ones in safe seats.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?
Belgium normally.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess. Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.
Is there any evidence that strong and stable government is good for the people? Italy did much better in the days when it didn't have a functioning government. Since the permanent coalitions and collapses, the economy has performed much less well.
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.
It gives you hope.
The guy wants to be the persecuted hero so much, maybe he will finally decide to let himself be arrested and extradited, we can hope.
I believe two of the charges have now expired due to Sweden's statute of limitations and the third expires soon.
So before too long the only charge the police could make against him is jumping bail here, which I believe is not considered a serious matter.
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
Absolutely - the British people are just the scum of the earth and the French the saviours of Europe. There that makes you feel better doesn't it.
Thanks for ensuring Spurs can't finish below Liverpool today and a penalty save for my keeper too - v helpful.... nearly rescued my weekend from friday's disappointment....but not quite.
Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?
Belgium normally.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess. Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.
Is there any evidence that strong and stable government is good for the people? Italy did much better in the days when it didn't have a functioning government. Since the permanent coalitions and collapses, the economy has performed much less well.
I knew that somebody would bite! Sorry ( I thought that I was giving the game away with the "strong and stable" bit)
Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
You wally.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.
It gives you hope.
The guy wants to be the persecuted hero so much, maybe he will finally decide to let himself be arrested and extradited, we can hope.
I believe two of the charges have now expired due to Sweden's statute of limitations and the third expires soon.
So before too long the only charge the police could make against him is jumping bail here, which I believe is not considered a serious matter.
Run out the clock has he? Shame. I have no idea if he is guilty or not, but before his reputation went south in the last year, his smug attitude and the feting he received from many people always annoyed.
Remember that UN bod who said he was being unlawfully detained?
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
Actually in terms of valid ballots cast, I wouldn't be so sure about that. Looks like the second round vote may well end up looking much like ours.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Or 3 out of 10 Leavers in total expressed that opinion.....I'm not defending them, they're ridiculous, she's foul. As a Remain voting Tory I concur re the Whiskas.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.
Can someone clarify how the % votes are counted on the Betting markets? Does it exclude abstentions/spoilt ballots - ie. Macron/Le Pen adds up to 100%, or will the two party outcome be less than 100%?
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Can someone clarify how the % votes are counted on the Betting markets? Does it exclude abstentions/spoilt ballots - ie. Macron/Le Pen adds up to 100%, or will the two party outcome be less than 100%?
I think its a sum to 100% god knows why they have 2 markets.
I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).
1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative 2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat 3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote
I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.
My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows
Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19 on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%
questions I'd ask on this experiment
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here? 2. any better guesses on my numbers here? 3. what do I do about Scotland?
I have a similar sheet. Using your numbers, I come up with a LD national vote share of 9.1%, which is probably a bit low.
My working assumption is that the Conservatives gain 75% of the UKIP vote in each constituency. The LDs gain a small number of Conservatives in very Remain constituencies, and lose to them in very Leave ones. It assumes that in LD/Con marginals, that the LDs get the average of one third of the way back to 2010 levels, and the 2015 vote share + Lab * Remain %. I also assume that Scotland broadly goes the way of the Holyrood elections last year (which might be generous to the SNP, given the results last week).
Plug those together and I get the LDs in the low teens (flat in aggregate vs Cons, +2 from Lab, +2 from SNP). I get a lower nationalist tally, and a very slightly higher Conservative one.
as I say I've got no accounting for scotland so the tories only gain 1 and, as has been stated elsewhere, nothing for greens both of which will have an impact here. but I've got a good stab.
who knows it may work better than UNS in the end (it probably won't)
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.
It gives you hope.
Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.
And now he has been embraced by the far right. Farage is his new best buddy. Funnily enough, WikiLeaks never seems able to hack into the emails of far right groups.
Some of us on the left could see he was a wrong 'un all along.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.
Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Well that would depend - was the question how many supported her or how many thought her election was the best outcome for Britain, which doesn't necessarily mean they support her? I'm happy to say too many Leavers think both of those things, but they are different things.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.
Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.
My preference was Macron -> Fillon -> Hamon -> Melenchon -> Le Pen of the 5 main contenders but that just reflects my personal politics. I'd have voted Melenchon over Le Pen. Heck I'd vote Corbyn over Le Pen.
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.
Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.
I'm still mad they didn't get a chance to break out the old 'Vote for the crook not the fascist' signs again.
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.
Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.
My preference was Macron -> Fillon -> Hamon -> Melenchon -> Le Pen of the 5 main contenders but that just reflects my personal politics. I'd have voted Melenchon over Le Pen. Heck I'd vote Corbyn over Le Pen.
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
Comments
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
Congrats on this one lasting a few months, mind
I do think too many on here associate the party with the right of Farage et al when it is absolutely not the case. It does not mean that I want a soft Brexit as we must take back control and have our laws judged by our Supreme Court but I for one welcome immigration to our Country but it must be controlled by our Government.
Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.
Still, a profit's a profit.
My working assumption is that the Conservatives gain 75% of the UKIP vote in each constituency. The LDs gain a small number of Conservatives in very Remain constituencies, and lose to them in very Leave ones. It assumes that in LD/Con marginals, that the LDs get the average of one third of the way back to 2010 levels, and the 2015 vote share + Lab * Remain %. I also assume that Scotland broadly goes the way of the Holyrood elections last year (which might be generous to the SNP, given the results last week).
Plug those together and I get the LDs in the low teens (flat in aggregate vs Cons, +2 from Lab, +2 from SNP). I get a lower nationalist tally, and a very slightly higher Conservative one.
Macron 52.57%
Le Pen 47.43%
Polynesie
Macron 58.39
Le Pen 41.61
Everywhere else points to a substantial Lab-Con swing, but the South is showing a small Tory-Lab move - who knows if it is true?
The Greens polled 5.9% in the SW, 5.2% in the SE and 4.9% in London.
My guess is that many will migrate to Corbyn.
This is from a study performed in 2015:
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Ideology: left, liberal – and a fair few former Green voters
Labour’s new members are, as expected, pretty left-wing across the board, although this was also the case, note, for pre-GE2015 members, the vast majority of whom tended to think badly of business and fondly of redistribution. New members and supporters are, though, even more anti-austerity and inclined to think that government spending cuts have gone much too far though. They are also more socially-liberal than pre-GE2015 members. This should not come as a surprise perhaps given the fact that a relatively high number of the post-GE2015 full members and registered supporters voted Green in 2015.
Some 17 per cent of new members voted Green at the general election in 2015- a figure which rises to 20 per cent of registered supporters, 28 per cent of those who first joined as registered supporters and then became full members, and 24 per cent of those who joined the Party after Corbyn became leader. This compares to just 6 per cent of pre-May 2015 members. Even in May 2016, nearly one in ten of those Londoners who joined Labour as members or registered supporters after the general election voted for the Green candidate, Sian Berry, rather than Sadiq Khan.
---------------
I suspect this grouping are bumping up Labour's numbers in the South and stopping them go completely through the floor nationally.
Most of these votes are absolutely pointless though for gaining or retaining seats as they usually sit in rock solid urban Labour seats or rock solid suburban Tory ones.
Examples include 10-15% in Lewisham Deptford, Hackney N, Islington S etc.
Labour's numbers in the polls are usually best with a typical Green voter demographic -under 35, studying etc.
I think Labour are losing valuable votes in marginals and replacing some of them with pointless ones in safe seats.
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.
So before too long the only charge the police could make against him is jumping bail here, which I believe is not considered a serious matter.
( I thought that I was giving the game away with the "strong and stable" bit)
And on that, I'm off again. Have a nice evening everyone.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
Remember that UN bod who said he was being unlawfully detained?
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Ooppps ....
Hello President Le Pen .....
who knows it may work better than UNS in the end (it probably won't)
Some of us on the left could see he was a wrong 'un all along.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
http://www.dw.com/en/exit-polls-show-victory-for-christian-democrats-in-schleswig-holstein/a-38744028
Merkel's trip to the US and the way Trump behaved have clearly provided a big boost to her.
https://twitter.com/davidwooding/status/861291917165961218
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.