Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
0.6659672663 0.6665932647 0.6393071348 <- 55% batch came in ! 0.6618710569
My estimates based on the batches coming in and votes left. Generally over 66% though
Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
Sounds like the exit poll in the header is spot on then.
I've poured myself a large cognac to celebrate.
French culture is as multifaceted as our own, but I see that Gascony is blue on the NYT map, so it seems appropriate.
Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
0.6659672663 0.6665932647 0.6393071348 <- 55% batch came in ! 0.6618710569
My estimates based on the batches coming in and votes left. Generally over 66% though</p>
Never know, a few near even batches could come in from some french backwater. What % is left?
Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
Sounds like the exit poll in the header is spot on then.
I've poured myself a large cognac to celebrate.
French culture is as multifaceted as our own, but I see that Gascony is blue on the NYT map, so it seems appropriate.
64.88% with 92% counted.
Looking forward to my summer holiday in Gascony this summer. Checked the commune where we will be: a strong Macron victory.
Some betting firms customer services teams are so crap! I've been on the phone now for half an hour and the women can't find my 'Macron to win the French presidency' bet. Seems like there's an issue because it was placed before they merged with another company three years ago
Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
0.6659672663 0.6665932647 0.6393071348 <- 55% batch came in ! 0.6618710569
My estimates based on the batches coming in and votes left. Generally over 66% though</p>
Never know, a few near even batches could come in from some french backwater. What % is left?
Some betting firms customer services teams are so crap! I've been on the phone now for half an hour and the women can't find my 'Macron to win the French presidency' bet. Seems like there's an issue because it was placed before they merged with another company three years ago
Some betting firms customer services teams are so crap! I've been on the phone now for half an hour and the women can't find my 'Macron to win the French presidency' bet. Seems like there's an issue because it was placed before they merged with another company three years ago
Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
Sounds like the exit poll in the header is spot on then.
I've poured myself a large cognac to celebrate.
French culture is as multifaceted as our own, but I see that Gascony is blue on the NYT map, so it seems appropriate.
64.88% with 92% counted.
Looking forward to my summer holiday in Gascony this summer. Checked the commune where we will be: a strong Macron victory.
What if it had gone Le Pen, would you have cancelled your holiday?!
Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.
Edit: Infact one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.
Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.
Edit: Indeed, one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.
Game, set, match then. Sometimes you win, sometime you lose (by a few 0,000's in 30m).
Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
Actually yes she'll pull it back a bit but I think a tall order to get back to Macron under 65.01%. He has .77% margin, which is alot at this point.
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.
Edit: Infact one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.
Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.
Edit: Infact one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.
Which is that ? Allauch ?
That had alreadly gone, I was referring to Marseille 11eme.
We should get the French samplers for our election, within minutes we'll know exactly how toast Corbyn is.
The slow unfolding of the story is one of the beauties of a British election. Imagine knowing the outcome two minutes after the poll had closed. Imagine the ramifications for gambling.
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
We should get the French samplers for our election, within minutes we'll know exactly how toast Corbyn is.
The slow unfolding of the story is one of the beauties of a British election. Imagine knowing the outcome two minutes after the poll had closed. Imagine the ramifications for gambling.
True, every election has a different flavour. The US is by far the funniest as the presenter suddenly realises there aren't enough votes left in Miami to flip the state, and the panhandle is "still voting" !
'Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?'
Agree he's done the easy bit, next his new party needs a majority in Parliament & then any new laws need to get passed the French unions,good luck with that.
Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
No.
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.
Both in the UK and Germany, when it is time to reform these things people broadly support the reforms.
Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
No.
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.
Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
No.
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.
Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?
Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
No.
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.
Indeed but Thatcher needed iron and persistence to get the reforms through with serious battles against the strikers. Does Macron have the iron to get through years of strikes that threaten to cripple Europe?
Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
No.
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.
Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?
There are plenty of signs that Macron is a cut above the average political phenomenon, and his path to power was full of bold and unconventional steps. He's much more prepared to lead a government than Blair for example.
Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
No.
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.
Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?
There are plenty of signs that Macron is a cut above the average political phenomenon, and his path to power was full of bold and unconventional steps. He's much more prepared to lead a government than Blair for example.
What evidence do you have of that?
He has gone in my eyes for the Blair/Clegg "be all things to all people" blank sheet of paper that people project their hopes onto. The polar opposite of an iron-willed principled politician that doesn't care if they're hated so long as they can get their ideas through.
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.
Next.
Hartlepool too, surely.
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the site
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.
Will UKIP get 15% in any constituency?
What are the odds?
Even money
I'll pass thanks. I expect UKIP will fail to get 4% nationally but there may be the odd seat where they scrape 18%. I'd shake on a tenner evens odds at 20% if you're interested?
I think it's probably a bet but I'll hold on to see if @foxinsoxuk wants to up the stakes at 15%... he seems confident so he probably will when he sees this
If Dr Fox isn't taking up the bet are you interested in this? £10 at evens that UKIP fails to get a 20% in a single constituency?
Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
No.
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.
Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?
We'll find out shortly enough when it comes to Le Touquet.
Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
Fine Eurostar Eur20k for every illegal immigrant that makes it through the tunnel. It's majority owned by the French state so they can afford it.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
And what do we do with the people?
Can't deport them back to France, they won't take them (same reason France can't deport them back to Spain/Italy/Germany that they must have travelled through).
Can't deport them back to Afghanistan etc due to human rights laws.
Can't integrate them into society as their asylum bid was denied.
Multiculturalism - in its rather superficial "Isn't a rainbow lovely?" way - is a nonsense because rather than seeing a country as a home where all are part of the family, with a shared history, shared traditions, shared - if unspoken assumptions - about how we behave and with obligations to look after each other because we are "family" even (especially) if we don't like each other, sees a country as a hotel where people come and go, barely interact with each other and simply avail themselves of its services in return for financial contributions only.
I don't - as should be clear - share Le Pen's view of the world but I fear that Macron's tolerance is little more than an unwillingness to address the challenges which France faces from those who simply refuse to accept the idea of France at all and that this is motivated by fear and cowardice, however much people may like to dress it up. Easy to criticise Le Pen. Much harder to come up with a way of addressing the issues she raises. "We must be / are diverse" is trite banality, not an answer or a policy.
Macron needs to be something more than simply "not Le Pen".
It's not that long ago that most people in France didn't speak French. Multiculturalism can also mean Basque, Flemish, Provencal, Gascon, Corsican, Breton, Catalan etc Have you read The Discovery of France? If not, I really recommend it.
With respect to Cyclefree, I think she sees her concept of culture and nationhood too narrowly as the only emotionally attractive way to live. Multiculturalism means being part of the gloriously rich and diverse world without worrying about which border was laid down by which baron in 1246 or whatever. To see culture as a purely national matter is to limit oneself unnecessarily in a world of delight that would take several lifetimes to enjoy.
Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
Fine Eurostar Eur20k for every illegal immigrant that makes it through the tunnel. It's majority owned by the French state so they can afford it.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
And what do we do with the people?
Can't deport them back to France, they won't take them (same reason France can't deport them back to Spain/Italy/Germany that they must have travelled through).
Can't deport them back to Afghanistan etc due to human rights laws.
Can't integrate them into society as their asylum bid was denied.
So what do we do?
Give Eurostar the legal obligation to return them to point of origin or pay 100k per year
Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
Fine Eurostar Eur20k for every illegal immigrant that makes it through the tunnel. It's majority owned by the French state so they can afford it.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
And what do we do with the people?
Can't deport them back to France, they won't take them (same reason France can't deport them back to Spain/Italy/Germany that they must have travelled through).
Can't deport them back to Afghanistan etc due to human rights laws.
Can't integrate them into society as their asylum bid was denied.
So what do we do?
How hard can it be to stop illegals coming through the tunnel at the French end?
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
Comments
0.6665932647
0.6393071348 <- 55% batch came in !
0.6618710569
My estimates based on the batches coming in and votes left. Generally over 66% though
You took the words right out of my mouth...
https://twitter.com/PrisonPlanet
His mummy going to need to send him to bed with extra Ovaltine tonight.
I've poured myself a large cognac to celebrate.
French culture is as multifaceted as our own, but I see that Gascony is blue on the NYT map, so it seems appropriate.
Looking forward to my summer holiday in Gascony this summer. Checked the commune where we will be: a strong Macron victory.
He's just past 65.02% by the way.
8% of the vote left.
http://graphics.france24.com/results-second-round-french-presidential-election-2017/
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/861350471130284032
Edit: a deliberate change... arty!
Edit: Infact one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.
Paris 12 will be 90ish% Macron too
BaptistMarxist has a few problems....John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/john-mcdonnell-refuses-rule-60-top-tax-rate-suggests-lot-learn/
Allauch ?
'Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?'
Agree he's done the easy bit, next his new party needs a majority in Parliament & then any new laws need to get passed the French unions,good luck with that.
Both in the UK and Germany, when it is time to reform these things people broadly support the reforms.
Not seen any evidence that he does.
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
He has gone in my eyes for the Blair/Clegg "be all things to all people" blank sheet of paper that people project their hopes onto. The polar opposite of an iron-willed principled politician that doesn't care if they're hated so long as they can get their ideas through.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
Can't deport them back to France, they won't take them (same reason France can't deport them back to Spain/Italy/Germany that they must have travelled through).
Can't deport them back to Afghanistan etc due to human rights laws.
Can't integrate them into society as their asylum bid was denied.
So what do we do?