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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%

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  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    That NY Times map is beautiful.

    It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
    At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

    Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
    Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

    Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    £20 tonight means I too don't think I've ever lost, in terms of a fait accompli.

    There have been ties the book has suffered, a couple of occasions badly, but it has never end so. Can't be unhappy even if £20 isn't quite enough to retire on.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Odds on Le Pen 30-35 marginally drifting from 1.07 to 1.15.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017

    The Leave.EU twitter feed just gets worse and worse tonight. Now they're saying France has surrendered to Germany and saved them the bullets.

    Brexit is shamed by association.

    Try not judging things by the biggest arseholes who support it, you'll feel better. Note I did not say ignore the biggest arseholes either.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    viewcode said:

    Would I be immodest if I reminded everybody that this result means I continue my unbroken record on winning every[1] political bet I have ever placed?

    Why yes. Yes it would.

    [1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential

    Of course, this is PB, where we understand what a small sample size is :)
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    98% of what exactly? 30-35 drifting now.
    Yes in this case it is Paris, which is pretty similiar to New York or California politically for these elections.
    Gotcha thank you
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    JackW said:

    viewcode said:

    Would I be immodest if I reminded everybody that this result means I continue my unbroken record on winning every[1] political bet I have ever placed?

    Why yes. Yes it would.

    [1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential

    Congratulations .... the drinks are on you.
    Spoken like a true Scotsman! :trollface:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited May 2017
    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    my heart bleeds!!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    French embassy in Washington reporting Macron polled 92% of 300k eligible ex-pats.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Lifts glass brimming with salty, alt right tears.

    Santé!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Macron coming out to a big crowd in the Louvre now to 'Ode to Joy' in a blatant copy of Obama 2008 in Grant Park, Chicago
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Misleading. Highly misleading. Look at the white gaps on all the big cities. None from Paris yet.
    does 98% mean the population or regions/divisions?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    35-40 has come in massively from 15/20 down to 5. Is there a way to see the quantities being matched to make sure that this isn't one high roller?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    That NY Times map is beautiful.

    It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
    At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

    Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
    Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

    Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.
    If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    In r1 I bet that Fillon was going to get over 20%, and then gave up leaving a lay to be matched off overnight in case someone messed up. The bet was matched very very late on (Like 2 am) when it turned what would have been £80 into 0 !

    So the continuing drift up of Macron will continue way into the night.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and May
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Misleading. Highly misleading. Look at the white gaps on all the big cities. None from Paris yet.
    does 98% mean the population or regions/divisions?
    Certainly not population. Paris not yet started!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    viewcode said:

    Would I be immodest if I reminded everybody that this result means I continue my unbroken record on winning every[1] political bet I have ever placed?

    Why yes. Yes it would.

    [1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential

    "Not bad for a human!"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    Not even a minisurge in Twickenham or Richmond ?

    Tbh those people probably voting Lib Dem anyway xD
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 564
    Chameleon said:

    35-40 has come in massively from 15/20 down to 5. Is there a way to see the quantities being matched to make sure that this isn't one high roller?

    I estimate it will be 35.05% based on 34.3 m votes
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Misleading. Highly misleading. Look at the white gaps on all the big cities. None from Paris yet.
    does 98% mean the population or regions/divisions?
    It does not mean 98% completed.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    French embassy in Washington reporting Macron polled 92% of 300k eligible ex-pats.

    They have a constant reminder.......
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    35-40 has come in massively from 15/20 down to 5. Is there a way to see the quantities being matched to make sure that this isn't one high roller?

    I estimate it will be 35.05% based on 34.3 m votes
    May you live long and be right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JackW said:

    French embassy in Washington reporting Macron polled 92% of 300k eligible ex-pats.

    Does that mean there are Le Pen supporters in South Kensington ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Pulpstar said:

    Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.

    Where are you seeing the Paris %ins?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Paris starting to come in 2/21 communes. 92% for Macron
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,490
    Thanks to all for your comments on my article earlier today.

    On a personal level I don't particularly like Macron. But that's because he reminds me too much of the smooth but essentially vacuous investment bankers I've spent too much time with. But infinitely better than Le Pen.

    I doubt France will reform in any meaningful way. Too many vested interests. And no real will to do so. (Ditto with the EU.) And "reform" in the French context means something quite different to what we might understand. France is still a statist top down country, which provides a very good life for those on the inside track but a shit life for anyone who isn't.

    What's worrying is that a third (or more) of French voters did vote for Le Pen (double her father's vote) and that there may not be any serious analysis of why they did so and what might sensibly be done to alleviate their concerns.

    "Phew! We won." is not sensible politics.

    But too often it is the - complacent - response. The emphasis should be less on the welcome defeat of Le Pen and more on what needs to be done to get those voters on your side.

    Voters are not an optional extra in a democracy.

    As I put it in my article published last Sunday: " Populist – but toxic – parties provide an easy excuse for mainstream parties and less uncouth politicians to ignore difficult problems until they force themselves onto the national stage, with unpredictable consequences."

    The test for Macron is whether he is willing and able to address the problems which led to someone like Le Pen getting as many votes as she has.

    I hope he does because France is a country I love, which has been tormented by barbarians in recent years.

    And now for a bad Sunday night pun: Macaron has taken the biscuit.

    **.......just putting on my coat......**
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.

    Where are you seeing the Paris %ins?
    NY Times website.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
    It will last a month, until the May landslide brings reality home
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,730

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
    I'm not.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    That NY Times map is beautiful.

    It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
    At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

    Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
    Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

    Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.
    If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.
    The referendum was a one-off, whereas elections keep happening on a regular cycle. If the issues that resulted in a third of the electorate voting for Le Pen are not successfully addressed, then she or a successor could do better next time, and the time after that, until...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.

    Central presumably rather than the other seven, though Le Pen was only competitive in one of the eight at the primary stage.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2017

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
    And the Macron bar charts are so stylish too .... :wink:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Evening. How's the exit poll performing?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.

    Where are you seeing the Paris %ins?
    NY Times website.
    Can you shoot a link over please?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
    It will last a month, until the May landslide brings reality home
    I suspect that then I will be even more envious of our nearest neighbour.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    This was posted earlier and is absolutely fabulous for following the results. NYT

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    That NY Times map is beautiful.

    It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
    At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

    Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
    Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

    Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.
    If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.
    Most of the 48% are being listened to. It's the ultras - the 15% - that will be ignored. A bit like the ultras at the other end.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 564
    Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146
    .

    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    That NY Times map is beautiful.

    It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
    At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

    Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
    Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

    Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.
    If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.
    The 52% took time to grow from 34%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    I'm sorry, but I just don't support any election result that doesn't come without a RobD spreadsheet.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    That NY Times map is beautiful.

    It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
    At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

    Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
    Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

    Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.
    If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.
    You beat me to it +1
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
    In France, sure. And maybe in time in the UK. But I suspect a minority (probably a fairly small one) of the country will know the name Emmanuel Macron by June 8th, and the mood music won't be noticed by then.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age

    Not by much though.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.

    Where are you seeing the Paris %ins?
    NY Times website.
    Can you shoot a link over please?

    This was posted earlier and is absolutely fabulous for following the results. NYT

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0

  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and May
    "Enemy" .......FFS man, we have been Allies against the "bad guys" for over a 100 years!
    Our last major conflict was the Napoleonic War over 200 years ago.

    Vive La France!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Merkel will win comfortably the big challenge for the EU now is Italy next year where Beppe Grillo's 5* leads most polls without any Fascist baggage
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age

    Yeah but I think alot from Toulouse as well.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Paris starting to fill in. Lets hope the Melonachon vote stayed at home.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017

    This was posted earlier and is absolutely fabulous for following the results. NYT

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0

    This is useful too.

    http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/

    Not as obvious immediately, but use it in conjunction with the map to see the actual vote details and the movement from primary to secondary in each area then each polling station within the area.

    I can't believe there are some places with less than 100 voters.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AnneJGP said:

    .

    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    That NY Times map is beautiful.

    It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
    At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

    Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
    Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

    Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.
    If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.
    The 52% took time to grow from 34%.
    Well exactly. First hubris, then nemesis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
    It will last a month, until the May landslide brings reality home
    I suspect that then I will be even more envious of our nearest neighbour.
    Perhaps Le Pen voters could move to Britain and Remain voters to France then we would all be happy?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146
    Just looked at the BBC News website before going to bed & saw this ....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-39837963

    Good night, everyone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age

    Yeah but I think alot from Toulouse as well.
    Wish we had those error bars, don't really have the confidence to lump anything.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    Disraeli said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and May
    "Enemy" .......FFS man, we have been Allies against the "bad guys" for over a 100 years!
    Our last major conflict was the Napoleonic War over 200 years ago.

    Vive La France!
    We last fought the French in living memory.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Did you reply to my offer to up our bet from £20 to £100?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Hope not!

    I'm thinking we may have to have our own En Marche in this country if the left want to get back to being relevant again. We'll what happens after June 8th, but if the Labour membership don't tell Corbyn where to go, it's time for Labour to split, set up a new political party, and let the Labour party taken over by the hard left die.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

    Next.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age

    Yeah but I think alot from Toulouse as well.
    Who will Marseille be for ? still some to come from there aswell.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

    Next.
    Hartlepool too, surely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited May 2017
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age

    Yeah but I think alot from Toulouse as well.
    Who will Marseille be for ? still some to come from there aswell.
    Mixed, but the mix will help Le Pen.

    Paris barely started still though.

    I think he remaining areas will be more Macron than those already counted.. (Marseilles more Macron than the remainder of Bouches Du Rhone), it's possibly the most right wing big city in the whole of France though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    1/4 pounder w cheese? Don't get it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Hope not!

    I'm thinking we may have to have our own En Marche in this country if the left want to get back to being relevant again. We'll what happens after June 8th, but if the Labour membership don't tell Corbyn where to go, it's time for Labour to split, set up a new political party, and let the Labour party taken over by the hard left die.
    If Labour do as badly as predicted, I am sure Corbyn will go - he wants the Labour brand, but because it is strong - if the party splits and some British 'En March' tries to take its place and immediately takes along dozens of his MPs, all the work he's tried in his leadership will have been for naught.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Disraeli said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and May
    "Enemy" .......FFS man, we have been Allies against the "bad guys" for over a 100 years!
    Our last major conflict was the Napoleonic War over 200 years ago.

    Vive La France!
    We last fought the French in Nov 42 in Operation Torch. There were significant casualties on both sides.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/bookreviews/6121052/Englands-Last-War-Against-France-Fighting-Vichy-1940-1942.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Stop it Nigel, I've had far too much to drink already.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/861322265924861952
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 564
    If there are 12% blank votes, then as I understand it the 74,7% turnout includes the blank votes, so we are only looking at 31.3m total votes?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

    Next.
    Hartlepool too, surely.
    Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Disraeli said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and May
    "Enemy" .......FFS man, we have been Allies against the "bad guys" for over a 100 years!
    Our last major conflict was the Napoleonic War over 200 years ago.

    Vive La France!
    It was De Gaulle who vetoed UK entry into the EEC in the first place and in retrospect we should have listened to his advice! England and then the UK has fought more wars with France than any other nation, from the Norman conquest to the Hundred Years War, the Austrian and Spanish Wars of Succession, the Seven Years War, the US War of Independence to the Napoleonic Wars. I am a Francophile and indeed some of my ancestors were Huguenots but France has never really been an ally of Britain and the Brexit negotiations will continue that tradition!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

    Next.
    Hartlepool too, surely.
    Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.
    Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,490

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
    Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

    Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.
    It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

    I have never been so jealous of the French.
    Liberalism in the French context is not the same as liberalism in the UK. There is very little tradition of classic liberalism in French politics. Don't assume that the same word means the same thing in a different context.

    What I do find odd is that Macron is on record as saying that he does not think there is any such thing as French culture or even French art. A curious thing for a French politician to say. And how do you "include" people into a country if you do not think there is something for them to be included into.

    A country is more than simply a geographical entity.

    As Seamus Heaney put it in 2013:

    “We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”

    Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    63.5%16,534,480 votes
    9,484,723 votes 36.5%

    Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    edited May 2017
    chrisb said:
    Oh, I love the French language.

    But don't tell anyone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

    Next.
    Hartlepool too, surely.
    Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.
    Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?
    No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Pulpstar said:

    63.5%16,534,480 votes
    9,484,723 votes 36.5%

    Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in

    I still think that this may be close.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    France seems to have a strange electoral system

    Does anyone know the percentage of the vote that positively voted for Macron
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762

    Stop it Nigel, I've had far too much to drink already.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/861322265924861952

    Why does he think it's any of his business?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Hope not!

    I'm thinking we may have to have our own En Marche in this country if the left want to get back to being relevant again. We'll what happens after June 8th, but if the Labour membership don't tell Corbyn where to go, it's time for Labour to split, set up a new political party, and let the Labour party taken over by the hard left die.
    If Labour do as badly as predicted, I am sure Corbyn will go - he wants the Labour brand, but because it is strong - if the party splits and some British 'En March' tries to take its place and immediately takes along dozens of his MPs, all the work he's tried in his leadership will have been for naught.
    Hopefully. As per The Times, apparently, Milne will argue Corbyn should stay if he gets 30% - ridiculous. They know they can't win, they just want the Left in Britain to become a permanent protest movement. How pathetic. And Corbyn talks about 'justice.'
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    France seems to have a strange electoral system

    Does anyone know the percentage of the vote that positively voted for Macron

    24% in the first round.

    Macron's vote share v Corbyn's in a FPTP vote is a tight match up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    63.5%16,534,480 votes
    9,484,723 votes 36.5%

    Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in

    I still think that this may be close.
    63.6%16,742,692 votes

    Centrist, supports the E.U.

    Marine Le Pen

    9,574,692 votes36.4%

    208212 votes in for Macron
    89969 for Le Pen

    So 69.8% of the new mix.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Stop it Nigel, I've had far too much to drink already.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/861322265924861952

    Why does he think it's any of his business?
    At CPAC he was talking about 'exciting elections in Europe this year.' It looks like none of them will actually go the way he wants them to when all is said and done.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.

    Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373

    Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.

    Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country

    Macron's clearly a Die Hard fan.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    63.5%16,534,480 votes
    9,484,723 votes 36.5%

    Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in

    I still think that this may be close.
    63.6%16,742,692 votes

    Centrist, supports the E.U.

    Marine Le Pen

    9,574,692 votes36.4%

    208212 votes in for Macron
    89969 for Le Pen

    So 69.8% of the new mix.
    New batch in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    63.5%16,534,480 votes
    9,484,723 votes 36.5%

    Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in

    I still think that this may be close.
    63.6%16,742,692 votes

    Centrist, supports the E.U.

    Marine Le Pen

    9,574,692 votes36.4%

    208212 votes in for Macron
    89969 for Le Pen

    So 69.8% of the new mix.
    New batch in.
    72.8% for Macron.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    chestnut said:

    France seems to have a strange electoral system

    Does anyone know the percentage of the vote that positively voted for Macron

    24% in the first round.

    Macron's vote share v Corbyn's in a FPTP vote is a tight match up.
    Thank you
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

    Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

    That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.
    Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

    Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
    Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?
    Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

    Next.
    Hartlepool too, surely.
    Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.
    Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?
    No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>
    @foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the site
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    63.5%16,534,480 votes
    9,484,723 votes 36.5%

    Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in

    I still think that this may be close.
    63.6%16,742,692 votes

    Centrist, supports the E.U.

    Marine Le Pen

    9,574,692 votes36.4%

    208212 votes in for Macron
    89969 for Le Pen

    So 69.8% of the new mix.
    New batch in.
    72.8% for Macron.
    With about 15% left to report it looks like it'll be about 66% Macron if all continues.
This discussion has been closed.