I'm doubling down on 35.01-40, odds are way too long considering that if the exit poll makes the same error on Le Pen as in the 1st round, she'd just squeak into this bracket.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.
Give me virtue signalling over lack-of-virtue signalling any day.
Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.
We have decided to have another go with the Continental System that failed for Napoleon.
Mr Glenn, are you suggesting that it is the EU that is Strong and Stable? It could well be....
And now we hear that Mrs May is having to bring in yet another foreigner to do her dirty work for her. She and her team are just too weak and muddling.
Jean Marie Le Pen blames Marine's defeat on her preoccupation with opposing the EU. Blames Florian Phillipot as the principal architect of her defeat (Florian is the one that has shaped her overall anti-EU strategy since taking over).
Well she thought, with some justification, that anti-EU would be more "respectable" than being openly racist.
I'm doubling down on 35.01-40, odds are way too long considering that if the exit poll makes the same error on Le Pen as in the 1st round, she'd just squeak into this bracket.
I'd love to find those error bars still >.>
What are the error bars?
In round 1 there was a website that had the highest and lowest possible votes of the candidates based on sampling and votes actually counted. Noone can remember where it was though
So for instance is Macron 65.2 - 66.3 or is he 64 - 68 still ?
Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.
We have decided to have another go with the Continental System that failed for Napoleon.
Mr Glenn, are you suggesting that it is the EU that is Strong and Stable? It could well be....
And now we hear that Mrs May is having to bring in yet another foreigner to do her dirty work for her. She and her team are just too weak and muddling.
What's wrong with bringing in a talented foreigner?
I'm doubling down on 35.01-40, odds are way too long considering that if the exit poll makes the same error on Le Pen as in the 1st round, she'd just squeak into this bracket.
I'd love to find those error bars still >.>
What are the error bars?
In round 1 there was a website that had the highest and lowest possible votes of the candidates based on sampling and votes actually counted. Noone can remember where it was though
So for instance is Macron 65.2 - 66.3 or is he 64 - 68 still ?
Ah thanks. Thought it was a betfair thing. Sounds worth finding so good luck.
Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to Macron
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)
I'm doubling down on 35.01-40, odds are way too long considering that if the exit poll makes the same error on Le Pen as in the 1st round, she'd just squeak into this bracket.
I'd love to find those error bars still >.>
What are the error bars?
In round 1 there was a website that had the highest and lowest possible votes of the candidates based on sampling and votes actually counted. Noone can remember where it was though
So for instance is Macron 65.2 - 66.3 or is he 64 - 68 still ?
Just had a run through my browser history for that day, and checked all the links that ended .fr and couldn't see any similar display. It's possible that the site isn't doing that for this round?
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.
English is probably the best language in the world!
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.
English is probably the best language in the world!
You are not Jean-Claude Juncker and I claim my £5.
Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to Macron
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.
no it isnt
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
The AfD has the same problem a lot of European Eurosceptic parties have: it's split between those who don't like the EU because it's too protectionist (Bernd Lucke and Hans-Olaf Henkel) and those who don't like it because its too free market (Frauke Petry).
(Edit to add: the AfD recently had a big fight about whether or not to ban male circumcision. Word of advice guys: something that predominantly hits Jewish Germans might draw some unhelpful comparisons.)
Actually it predominately hits Islamic Germans.
According to the 2011 census, Islam is the second religion after Christianity in Germany with 1.9% of the population being followers. (Since that time it is estimated that over a million followers of the Islamic Faith have come to Germany as refugees).
The percentage of followers of the Jewish faith according to the 2011 census was only 0.1%.
I suspect that the AfD is more anti-Islam than anti-Jewish, but either stance is hideous IMHO.
Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to Macron
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.
I'm going to be honest, even though we have no error bars I expect it'll be very close to 65.7 on the basis that the projection has moved 65.1 -> 65.5 -> 65.7 as results have come in.
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.
Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to Macron
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.
I'm going to be honest, even though we have no error bars I expect it'll be very close to 65.7 on the basis that the projection has moved 65.1 -> 65.5 -> 65.7 as results have come in.
Yeah, the projection moving away from 65.0 isn't a particularly good sign. Then again the fact that not many cities are reporting yet still keeps an element of doubt in the air.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.
Give me virtue signalling over lack-of-virtue signalling any day.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.
If people stopped tritely virtue signalling I could concentrate on my better posts.
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.
Would be fairer!
In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.
Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to Macron
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.
Presumably though the Exit poll fully accounts for variable turnout.
In all fairness the polling for round one slightly over predicted MLP (by about 2% iirc). I'm sympathetic to the pollsters though, guessing where the first rounders will go and turnout levels must be a very difficult task.
Are people really so gullible that they've backed the Conservatives in to only 4/1 to win Sheffield Hallam ???
These are 2016 local election results in Sheffield Hallam:
LibD 15,940 Lab 8,990 Con 3,584
For those who aren't willing to do their own research the 12/1 on a Conservative win in Leeds NW is preferable, the 2016 local election results in that constituency being:
From the early results it looks like Macron picks up transfers at a rate of approximately 4:1 in areas where he was ahead, and 2:1 in areas where Le Pen was ahead in the primary.
Le Pen's numbers are very slowly drifting down, possibly not fast enough. It is going to be very tight either way.
None of Paris reporting yet. THat'll be overwhemingly Macron. Also white gaps on the Cities in other places. The remaining vote will be very very lopsided to Macron
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)
Yep, however there was reportedly low turnout in Paris so that may come into it. Either way if it comes out above or below the 30-35 I make a tidy profit. I'm just making sure that I don't chuck good money after bad at this point.
Presumably though the Exit poll fully accounts for variable turnout.
Yeah, however if the turnout levels they get in the sampled regions aren't quite accurate then the poll may be very slightly out.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.
Nobody is bullying anyone.
Oh, come off it.
I don't know who appointed you as site policeman (other than yourself) but it really is laughable. Check my posts, I was only asking Moniker
I seem to recall you (or an alias) doing the same during the US election, demanding to see people's predictions.
It was I, Bobajob. What is wrong with asking people for predictions? It's a betting site. At lot of people submitted maps, it was entertaining. WilliamGlenn was the closest – was almost bang on.
In all fairness the polling for round one slightly over predicted MLP (by about 2% iirc). I'm sympathetic to the pollsters though, guessing where the first rounders will go and turnout levels must be a very difficult task.
The pattern is repeated everywhere, the cities vote left and the countryside votes right as a baseline. The strength (Or not) of the candidates then decides how far off the baseline this will be. Of course there are specific exceptions (Old coalfields here in the sticks) but its a global pattern and I expect long term the coalfields here will trend long term Tory with the big cities long term Labour.
Striking achievement for Macron and indeed Hollande.
It is a victory for Macron but certainly not Hollande, Macron won because he started his own liberal party and dumped the Socialist Party
A plan for Britain to follow?
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly Eurosceptic
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!
Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.
Indeed - one or two people did.
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preference
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
Alastair was pointing out facts, that's not a particular nasty thing to do. Do you not see a correlation between Leavers, Trump and Le Pen supporters. Obviously it's not anywhere near 100%, but it looks closer than random.
The thing we need to remember is that perhaps 10% of the British population know anything about the policy positions of the French presidential candidates. Therefore, most people are reacting to what they do know, which is Le Pen is generally described as "Fascist". That's enough for a significant number of Leavers, though not a majority, to think "if she's being attacked like that she must have something going for her".
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.
Would be fairer!
In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.
Dougie is admittedly an extreme example, but you can't argue that it would be fairer. Ukip got 13% of the votes at GE 2015!
In all fairness the polling for round one slightly over predicted MLP (by about 2% iirc). I'm sympathetic to the pollsters though, guessing where the first rounders will go and turnout levels must be a very difficult task.
The trend over the last week, and after the debate in particular, was momentum to Macron. I think the French pollsters have had another good night.
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.
Would be fairer!
In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.
Dougie is admittedly an extreme example, but you can't argue that it would be fairer. Ukip got 13% of the votes at GE 2015!
Maybe, but hugely open to abuse. Way too much power for one MP IMO.
Striking achievement for Macron and indeed Hollande.
It is a victory for Macron but certainly not Hollande, Macron won because he started his own liberal party and dumped the Socialist Party
A plan for Britain to follow?
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly Eurosceptic
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!
Not at all. It shows how utterly fucking shite Corbyn and his merry gang of jokers are.
I have never heard of that before – ingenious system.
So in essence it might give Tory MPs 0.8 of a vote in the Commons, while Carswell's vote would have been worth something like 50 votes? Yeah, I see no problem with this system at all.
Would be fairer!
In fact it'd be 80 votes! Why bother whipping when all you have to do is bribe Carswell with some pork for Clacton.
Dougie is admittedly an extreme example, but you can't argue that it would be fairer. Ukip got 13% of the votes at GE 2015!
Maybe, but hugely open to abuse. Way too much power for one MP IMO.
Are there any other examples in modern history of one MP wielding so many votes? (Not saying there aren't, genuinely interested)
Striking achievement for Macron and indeed Hollande.
It is a victory for Macron but certainly not Hollande, Macron won because he started his own liberal party and dumped the Socialist Party
A plan for Britain to follow?
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly Eurosceptic
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!
To be fair, under FPTP, it is very likely to be a minority of British voters supporting her position, even if she wins by a landslide.
Any idea when the final result will be confirmed? And when Betfair will settle any bets on this? I went against my stated rule and bet on the outcome I wanted this time.
I hope it goes 37/63% Le Pen/Macron. I do much better on Le Pen 35-40% than Le Pen 30-35%, having followed some PB advice from earlier today, for which many thanks.
The difference between leaders and a geriatric student politician.
It is the response of a politician who only defines himself by what he is opposed to. By definition, somebody who should never be given power over anything.
Any idea when the final result will be confirmed? And when Betfair will settle any bets on this? I went against my stated rule and bet on the outcome I wanted this time.
Betfair should settle overnight.
I've bet quite large amounts - down to 1.12 on Macron - and have lot of stake money tied up as well as my winnings
Any idea when the final result will be confirmed? And when Betfair will settle any bets on this? I went against my stated rule and bet on the outcome I wanted this time.
Betfair should settle overnight.
I've bet quite large amounts - down to 1.12 on Macron - and have lot of stake money tied up as well as my winnings
Thanks. I've bet a lot less, but it's nice to win. One more question from a novice: the Betfair Vote Percentage bands: are they UK or GB? I'm assuming UK.
It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.
Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
Striking achievement for Macron and indeed Hollande.
It is a victory for Macron but certainly not Hollande, Macron won because he started his own liberal party and dumped the Socialist Party
A plan for Britain to follow?
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly Eurosceptic
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!
Not at all. It shows how utterly fucking shite Corbyn and his merry gang of jokers are.
Striking achievement for Macron and indeed Hollande.
It is a victory for Macron but certainly not Hollande, Macron won because he started his own liberal party and dumped the Socialist Party
A plan for Britain to follow?
If Corbyn is trounced and reelected by Labour members possibly but for now British voters are firmly Eurosceptic
Really? All the polling I have seen since the referendum seems to suggest a dead-heat or a slight advantage for Leave.
May is going to get the biggest landslide since 2001 in a month on a hard Brexit platform, I think that suggests clearly what British voters' views are!
To be fair, under FPTP, it is very likely to be a minority of British voters supporting her position, even if she wins by a landslide.
If you add in Tories+ UKIP (even now) + DUP, 50%+ of the vote will likely back hard Brexit in the way May has set out
It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.
At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.
Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
Le Pen may get about 11 Million votes out of about 30 Million.
Pretty much exactly the same as the Conservatives in 2015...
The difference between leaders and a geriatric student politician.
It is the response of a politician who only defines himself by what he is opposed to. By definition, somebody who should never be given power over anything.
That's rather terse. Surely you didn't want MLP to win?
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.
Nobody is bullying anyone.
Oh, come off it.
I don't know who appointed you as site policeman (other than yourself) but it really is laughable. Check my posts, I was only asking Moniker
Yes, that's my point. You were bullying Moniker.
Moniker getting bullied?
Ha.
Hahahaha.
Haha.
Moniker's a long established troll who's virtues are an occasional flash of wit and a willingness to give as good as he gets. If he ever turns into a mewling victim complaining about getting bullied, I'm giving up on the internet.
Comments
Macron 61.3%
Le Pen 38.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
And now we hear that Mrs May is having to bring in yet another foreigner to do her dirty work for her. She and her team are just too weak and muddling.
Noone can remember where it was though
So for instance is Macron 65.2 - 66.3 or is he 64 - 68 still ?
Macron 55.25 (+35.39) Le Pen 44.75 (+16.73)
The numbers in brackets are the changes compared to Primary Vote Share
And they count bloody slowly in nice, left wing places (See California)
Macron 58.46 (+38.44) Le Pen 41.54 (+17.01)
According to the 2011 census, Islam is the second religion after Christianity in Germany with 1.9% of the population being followers. (Since that time it is estimated that over a million followers of the Islamic Faith have come to Germany as refugees).
The percentage of followers of the Jewish faith according to the 2011 census was only 0.1%.
I suspect that the AfD is more anti-Islam than anti-Jewish, but either stance is hideous IMHO.
Macron 72.11 (+45.46) Le Pen 27.89 (+11.86)
A plan for Britain to follow?
Libdems 10
65.7 on TF1.
So a bit of a polling miss in all honesty.
These are 2016 local election results in Sheffield Hallam:
LibD 15,940
Lab 8,990
Con 3,584
For those who aren't willing to do their own research the 12/1 on a Conservative win in Leeds NW is preferable, the 2016 local election results in that constituency being:
LibD 7,942
Lab 6,593
Con 5,537
Or indeed 16/1 with Shadsy.
Macron 62%
Le Pen 38%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
I went against my stated rule and bet on the outcome I wanted this time.
The difference between leaders and a geriatric student politician.
I've bet quite large amounts - down to 1.12 on Macron - and have lot of stake money tied up as well as my winnings
She found 65.5 of French shoes indicated a clear move front and centre, whereas 34.5% hung badly to the extreme right.
Why yes. Yes it would.
[1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential
One more question from a novice: the Betfair Vote Percentage bands: are they UK or GB? I'm assuming UK.
Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.
oh
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Macron 62.5%
Le Pen 37.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
Pretty much exactly the same as the Conservatives in 2015...
Brexit is shamed by association.
Ha.
Hahahaha.
Haha.
Moniker's a long established troll who's virtues are an occasional flash of wit and a willingness to give as good as he gets. If he ever turns into a mewling victim complaining about getting bullied, I'm giving up on the internet.