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When are they going to send Jezza out with a giant headstone, adorned with pledges like the ten commandments being handed down to Moses, to be plonked in the Downing St garden in the unlikely event that Jez wins?
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I think that's poor reporting. I don't think R&T are extrapolating that, I think it's the Times.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You think they're still 'close' to joining though? Under Erdogan?Sandpit said:
And yet, one week after the Brexit vote:kle4 said:
The 'lie' was the impression given it was imminent, which it very much is not since they've been talking about it over 30 years and seem to be moving further away from joining, no matter any talk of fast tracking at times (seemingly as just nice talk, rather than any true indication the joining was moving significantly closer). As a leaver, I'll give the remoaners that one.Ishmael_Z said:
It is probably now sinking in with the Remoanariat that compared with these figures £350m a week looks like a sober, cautious, conservative, prudent and responsible estimate. Embarrassing for them, since the only "lie" they can now rely on is that Leave said that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU - a shocking travesty of the true situation, which is that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.
Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36672242
"The EU has opened a new chapter in Turkey's EU membership talks..."0 -
I can see why she might not like that tbh.ThreeQuidder said:
That's a bit harsh, calling your girlfriend "something"...!TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
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I showed her the pics of me meeting Dave and George in Number 10.RobD said:
Have you mentioned it is a blog read by Prime Ministers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.RobD said:
Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?TheScreamingEagles said:
I meant by my girlfriend.GIN1138 said:
Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.
She reminded me was a Corbynite.
She said I might has well have shown her a picture of me kicking a dog.0 -
Tho it might be his safer safe wordnunu said:
I can see why she might not like that tbh.ThreeQuidder said:
That's a bit harsh, calling your girlfriend "something"...!TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
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Trying to extrapolate general election results from the locals is a mug's game, was too many variables.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given how bad Ralling and Thrasher's predictions have been during the last two years, we should be getting ready for a Tory majority of 250 on June 8thSandpit said:
Well Sporting Index, Spreadex and Betfair all reckon they'll pick up 70 or 75!TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately I never did get myself organised the other week to jump on the spreads, and think buying at 409 now has an awful lot of potential downside. 378 was a bargain though.
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Another analysis of the local results by Baxter (scroll down a little):
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html0 -
No, that misses the point entirely. The question is how things appeared in June 2016, without benefit of hindsight.kle4 said:
You think they're still 'close' to joining though? Under Erdogan?Sandpit said:
And yet, one week after the Brexit vote:kle4 said:
The 'lie' was the impression given it was imminent, which it very much is not since they've been talking about it over 30 years and seem to be moving further away from joining, no matter any talk of fast tracking at times (seemingly as just nice talk, rather than any true indication the joining was moving significantly closer). As a leaver, I'll give the remoaners that one.Ishmael_Z said:
It is probably now sinking in with the Remoanariat that compared with these figures £350m a week looks like a sober, cautious, conservative, prudent and responsible estimate. Embarrassing for them, since the only "lie" they can now rely on is that Leave said that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU - a shocking travesty of the true situation, which is that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.
Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36672242
"The EU has opened a new chapter in Turkey's EU membership talks..."0 -
It was, my buy at 378 looks good, only the CPS can derail it.Sandpit said:
Trying to extrapolate general election results from the locals is a mug's game, was too many variables.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given how bad Ralling and Thrasher's predictions have been during the last two years, we should be getting ready for a Tory majority of 250 on June 8thSandpit said:
Well Sporting Index, Spreadex and Betfair all reckon they'll pick up 70 or 75!TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately I never did get myself organised the other week to jump on the spreads, and think buying at 409 now has an awful lot of potential downside. 378 was a bargain though.0 -
No, not at all. The problem was the Remain campaign talking as if Turkey were never going to join, when there was a meeting scheduled *for the following week* to progress Turkey's membership of the EU.kle4 said:
You think they're still 'close' to joining though? Under Erdogan?Sandpit said:
And yet, one week after the Brexit vote:kle4 said:
The 'lie' was the impression given it was imminent, which it very much is not since they've been talking about it over 30 years and seem to be moving further away from joining, no matter any talk of fast tracking at times (seemingly as just nice talk, rather than any true indication the joining was moving significantly closer). As a leaver, I'll give the remoaners that one.Ishmael_Z said:
It is probably now sinking in with the Remoanariat that compared with these figures £350m a week looks like a sober, cautious, conservative, prudent and responsible estimate. Embarrassing for them, since the only "lie" they can now rely on is that Leave said that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU - a shocking travesty of the true situation, which is that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.
Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36672242
"The EU has opened a new chapter in Turkey's EU membership talks..."0 -
You should buy her a 'never kissed a Tory' teeshirt.TheScreamingEagles said:
I showed her the pics of me meeting Dave and George in Number 10.RobD said:
Have you mentioned it is a blog read by Prime Ministers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.RobD said:
Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?TheScreamingEagles said:
I meant by my girlfriend.GIN1138 said:
Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.
She reminded me was a Corbynite.
She said I might has well have shown her a picture of me kicking a dog.
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If we were registered for E.U ref then we should already be registered for 8th June right? Unless we moved or something. because I haven't recieved my polling card yet.Sandpit said:
Tell everyone you know, register to vote before 22nd May. #signuptovotenunu said:
Everyone has to vote. Even if you don't vote Tory just vote, we have to get that share below 30% so he goes.FrancisUrquhart said:
cancer in the labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NVbJ0QMWKdk0 -
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Puts the SNP on 45 seats. Seems a little optimistic, I'd like a new Scotland poll to encourage me - where's the Klaxon?RobD said:Another analysis of the local results by Baxter (scroll down a little):
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html0 -
I remember it well - it didn't look close then either. I recall several leavers besides me criticising the spin put on it. Reasonable people will differ on that of course, but I do feel that one was played further than was fair by VoteLeave.Ishmael_Z said:
No, that misses the point entirely. The question is how things appeared in June 2016, without benefit of hindsight.kle4 said:
You think they're still 'close' to joining though? Under Erdogan?Sandpit said:
And yet, one week after the Brexit vote:kle4 said:
The 'lie' was the impression given it was imminent, which it very much is not since they've been talking about it over 30 years and seem to be moving further away from joining, no matter any talk of fast tracking at times (seemingly as just nice talk, rather than any true indication the joining was moving significantly closer). As a leaver, I'll give the remoaners that one.Ishmael_Z said:
It is probably now sinking in with the Remoanariat that compared with these figures £350m a week looks like a sober, cautious, conservative, prudent and responsible estimate. Embarrassing for them, since the only "lie" they can now rely on is that Leave said that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU - a shocking travesty of the true situation, which is that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.
Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36672242
"The EU has opened a new chapter in Turkey's EU membership talks..."0 -
Yeah, sadly I needed to get a two grand deposit (for £10 a seat) from a UK bank account along will all the usual KYC bollocks, as the price was creeping up. Hopefully it will come back down at some point in the next couple of weeks and I can take advantageTheScreamingEagles said:
It was, my buy at 378 looks good, only the CPS can derail it.Sandpit said:
Trying to extrapolate general election results from the locals is a mug's game, was too many variables.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given how bad Ralling and Thrasher's predictions have been during the last two years, we should be getting ready for a Tory majority of 250 on June 8thSandpit said:
Well Sporting Index, Spreadex and Betfair all reckon they'll pick up 70 or 75!TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately I never did get myself organised the other week to jump on the spreads, and think buying at 409 now has an awful lot of potential downside. 378 was a bargain though.0 -
Tell her it's racist to break up with you because you're a minority. Then she will feel bad for you and give you pity sex.RobD said:
You should buy her a 'never kissed a Tory' teeshirt.TheScreamingEagles said:
I showed her the pics of me meeting Dave and George in Number 10.RobD said:
Have you mentioned it is a blog read by Prime Ministers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.RobD said:
Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?TheScreamingEagles said:
I meant by my girlfriend.GIN1138 said:
Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.
She reminded me was a Corbynite.
She said I might has well have shown her a picture of me kicking a dog.0 -
I think that's predicted +10 for the Tories, and +1 for the LDs (Dunbartonshire E)kle4 said:
Puts the SNP on 45 seats. Seems a little optimistic, I'd like a new Scotland poll to encourage me - where's the Klaxon?RobD said:Another analysis of the local results by Baxter (scroll down a little):
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Based on this prediction (link) using the numbers in that post, and the average Scotland numbers from his Scotland page0 -
In that case, hope for a dozen CPS charges this week.Sandpit said:
Yeah, sadly I needed to get a two grand deposit (for £10 a seat) from a UK bank account along will all the usual KYC bollocks, as the price was creeping up. Hopefully it will come back down at some point in the next couple of weeks and I can take advantageTheScreamingEagles said:
It was, my buy at 378 looks good, only the CPS can derail it.Sandpit said:
Trying to extrapolate general election results from the locals is a mug's game, was too many variables.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given how bad Ralling and Thrasher's predictions have been during the last two years, we should be getting ready for a Tory majority of 250 on June 8thSandpit said:
Well Sporting Index, Spreadex and Betfair all reckon they'll pick up 70 or 75!TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately I never did get myself organised the other week to jump on the spreads, and think buying at 409 now has an awful lot of potential downside. 378 was a bargain though.
The price will crash, then return to equilibrium within a fortnight.0 -
Are we ever going to get a correct scores on the doors for YouGov?0
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This will help with the Corbyn is soft on defence meme
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/8609750590867374080 -
Ha, I'd love to know the reasoning for 80k not 74k (it may well be reasonable) but it looks funny.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
You can check if you're on the 'open' version of the register, and register again if you're not sure, on the gov websitenunu said:
If we were registered for E.U ref then we should already be registered for 8th June right? Unless we moved or something. because I haven't recieved my polling card yet.Sandpit said:
Tell everyone you know, register to vote before 22nd May. #signuptovotenunu said:
Everyone has to vote. Even if you don't vote Tory just vote, we have to get that share below 30% so he goes.FrancisUrquhart said:
cancer in the labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NVbJ0QMWKdk
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote0 -
No wonder that women call us men "devious".nunu said:
Tell her it's racist to break up with you because you're a minority. Then she will feel bad for you and give you pity sex.RobD said:
You should buy her a 'never kissed a Tory' teeshirt.TheScreamingEagles said:
I showed her the pics of me meeting Dave and George in Number 10.RobD said:
Have you mentioned it is a blog read by Prime Ministers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.RobD said:
Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?TheScreamingEagles said:
I meant by my girlfriend.GIN1138 said:
Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.
She reminded me was a Corbynite.
She said I might has well have shown her a picture of me kicking a dog.
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Well that does make some sense, if we don't have any drones he'll never need to answer "can we use a drone to kill the IS leader?"TheScreamingEagles said:This will help with the Corbyn is soft on defence meme
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/8609750590867374080 -
I'm still stunned there are people, however much a minority, who really do seem to prioritise the demands of the membership over everything else, from people who may not even be members but just former supporters.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
hts://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
That was my line of thought too. Everyone will over-react for one day, then it's sub judice and will be chip wrapper the following morning.TheScreamingEagles said:
In that case, hope for a dozen CPS charges this week.Sandpit said:
Yeah, sadly I needed to get a two grand deposit (for £10 a seat) from a UK bank account along will all the usual KYC bollocks, as the price was creeping up. Hopefully it will come back down at some point in the next couple of weeks and I can take advantageTheScreamingEagles said:
It was, my buy at 378 looks good, only the CPS can derail it.Sandpit said:
Trying to extrapolate general election results from the locals is a mug's game, was too many variables.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given how bad Ralling and Thrasher's predictions have been during the last two years, we should be getting ready for a Tory majority of 250 on June 8thSandpit said:
Well Sporting Index, Spreadex and Betfair all reckon they'll pick up 70 or 75!TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately I never did get myself organised the other week to jump on the spreads, and think buying at 409 now has an awful lot of potential downside. 378 was a bargain though.
The price will crash, then return to equilibrium within a fortnight.0 -
Drop Diane a quick tweet and she'll clear it all upGIN1138 said:Are we ever going to get a correct scores on the doors for YouGov?
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I've cleared it upScrapheap_as_was said:
Drop Diane a quick tweet and she'll clear it all upGIN1138 said:Are we ever going to get a correct scores on the doors for YouGov?
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foxinsoxuk
'The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.
Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.'
The only way this will get resolved is to refer it to an arbitration court in a neutral country.
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And where is the 51%?0
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Lib Dems 1.4%?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've cleared it upScrapheap_as_was said:
Drop Diane a quick tweet and she'll clear it all upGIN1138 said:Are we ever going to get a correct scores on the doors for YouGov?
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From VoteUK forum:
Lanark & Hamilton East, local election votes:
Lab 11,793 (32.1%)
SNP 11,462 (31.2%)
Con 10,297 (28.0%)
LD 1,138 (3.1%)
Ind 986 (2.7%)
Grn 872 (2.4%)
Sdt 90 (0.2%)
UKIP 80 (0.2%)
Con 16/1, Betfair Sportsbook.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics0 -
That's an extremely good point. I keep forgetting that Ukip vote share isn't just down to how much they are squeezed, its also a matter of how many seats they abandon.MarqueeMark said:(snip)
I just think that UKIP will field a much reduced slate of candidates, so their vote share will be down on national polling (even allowing for them standing in their better prospects).
Now, the available polling evidence (as well as a common sense interpretation of what has happened in the local elections) suggests that the migration of voters from Ukip to Con is 4, 5, maybe more than 5 times greater than that from Ukip to Lab - so this could have big implications in nearly all of the Lab/Con marginals outside of London. If Ukip don't field candidates at all in any given seat, then will the fraction of their support that hasn't yet defected stay at home, or split in similar proportions to those who have already abandoned the party? Could possibly be enough to tip a couple of dozen more seats into the Tory column - as well as potentially raising the Con vote share further into the upper 40s.0 -
Poor. I called for intergenerational fairness to be addressed in the LD manifesto.kle4 said:So, LDs and Labour are both now committed to keeping the Triple Lock? Both are really trying to dig into the elderly vote, and presumably thinking the Tories will not commit to keeping it, which I hope is the case but seeing how TMay panicked over the budget I doubt will be the case.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-398315220 -
[picks jaw off floor]initforthemoney said:
h ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByWQz7vusP8viewcode said:
DINKYs = Double Income, No Kids Yet.
I think I'm the only one who remembers BCBG - bon chic, bon genre - but it never really caught on in England
Kill it. Kill it with fire.0 -
For anyone following German politics as well as French (presumably not TSE's other half!) we also have this tomorrow:
http://www.dw.com/en/schleswig-holstein-casting-ballots-between-the-north-sea-and-the-baltic/a-38737260
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schleswig-Holstein_state_election,_2017
Apparently the SSW Danish minority party is funded by the Danish government!
Think polls close 5pm UK time, so a curtain-raiser ahead of the French results.
Next Sun is the Nordrhein-Westfalen state election (Germany's biggest state) and definitely agree with Alastair Meeks that Merkel looks great value on Betfair at 1.67 for next Chancellor and think CDU/CSU pretty good for most seats at 1.46.
Next Tuesday is the South Korea presidential election, which will be a bit more important than usual:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_presidential_election,_2017
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The Corbynite is obviously a cretin, but sorry, so is this woman's dad. There's nothing to be proud of in 50 years of voting for a dog turd as long as it's wearing a red rosette. Glad he's finally engaged some sort of thought process albeit late in life.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
Nothing has been reported from the ST article. We may be obliged to wait until YouGov release the tables.IanB2 said:And where is the 51%?
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I see that there is no longer a need for elections as we have the clear will of the Labour membership ...Luckyguy1983 said:
The Corbynite is obviously a cretin, but sorry, so is this woman's dad. There's nothing to be proud of in 50 years of voting for a dog turd as long as it's wearing a red rosette. Glad he's finally engaged some sort of thought process albeit late in life.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
The Sunday Times publish their articles shortly after midnight.Black_Rook said:
Nothing has been reported from the ST article. We may be obliged to wait until YouGov release the tables.IanB2 said:And where is the 51%?
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Maybe he thought about every candidate in those 50 years and liked them all, we don't know.Luckyguy1983 said:
The Corbynite is obviously a cretin, but sorry, so is this woman's dad. There's nothing to be proud of in 50 years of voting for a dog turd as long as it's wearing a red rosette. Glad he's finally engaged some sort of thought process albeit late in life.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
Certainly aren't going to get my vote for being chickens.Pulpstar said:
Poor. I called for intergenerational fairness to be addressed in the LD manifesto.kle4 said:So, LDs and Labour are both now committed to keeping the Triple Lock? Both are really trying to dig into the elderly vote, and presumably thinking the Tories will not commit to keeping it, which I hope is the case but seeing how TMay panicked over the budget I doubt will be the case.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-398315220 -
Tell him that. I'm sure he'll appreciate it.Luckyguy1983 said:
The Corbynite is obviously a cretin, but sorry, so is this woman's dad. There's nothing to be proud of in 50 years of voting for a dog turd as long as it's wearing a red rosette. Glad he's finally engaged some sort of thought process albeit late in life.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
That's amazing. One of my favourite twitter threads.0 -
When did you meet them?TheScreamingEagles said:
I showed her the pics of me meeting Dave and George in Number 10.RobD said:
Have you mentioned it is a blog read by Prime Ministers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.RobD said:
Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?TheScreamingEagles said:
I meant by my girlfriend.GIN1138 said:
Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.
She reminded me was a Corbynite.
She said I might has well have shown her a picture of me kicking a dog.0 -
OK.walterw said:foxinsoxuk
'The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.
Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.'
The only way this will get resolved is to refer it to an arbitration court in a neutral country.
The EU claims we owe:
1. Spending that the UK has approved that it will no longer pay for. (As in, we signed off on a five year budget, and if we leave after year two, we approved spending commitments.)
2. A share of the EU's financial liabilities, i.e. the bloc's €80bn of gross debt.
3. A share of the EU's pension liabilities.
4. The cost of relocating EU bodies currently in the UK to the rest of the EU.
In a situation where we to leave the EU without a deal, they would almost certainly go to International Arbitration. It's also quite possible (likely) that the UK government would lose cases with respect to pensions under TUPE legislation in UK courts.
All told, were we to leave without a deal, we'd probably end up with a bill (on my wild estimate/guesses) in the €20-30bn range, once EU assets are taken into consideration.
But. The EU loses out at least as much as we do from no deal. The only outcome that makes any sense is that: (a) we take responsibility for UK MEPs and Eurocrats pensions, (b) the EU accepts that our share of EU assets is c. €20bn, (c) the EU offsets payments during the transition period (say three years x €8bn) as part of the payment. Together they come to (say) €70bn of notional value, and yet we we didn't write a cheque for a single euro-cent, penny or centime.0 -
In Downing Street, late 2014Freggles said:
When did you meet them?TheScreamingEagles said:
I showed her the pics of me meeting Dave and George in Number 10.RobD said:
Have you mentioned it is a blog read by Prime Ministers?TheScreamingEagles said:
Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.RobD said:
Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?TheScreamingEagles said:
I meant by my girlfriend.GIN1138 said:
Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?TheScreamingEagles said:Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.
Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.
She reminded me was a Corbynite.
She said I might has well have shown her a picture of me kicking a dog.0 -
Tribal voting 101 - we always vote this way - why? because...kle4 said:
Maybe he thought about every candidate in those 50 years and liked them all, we don't know.Luckyguy1983 said:
The Corbynite is obviously a cretin, but sorry, so is this woman's dad. There's nothing to be proud of in 50 years of voting for a dog turd as long as it's wearing a red rosette. Glad he's finally engaged some sort of thought process albeit late in life.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
Reminder (and a guide) to those standing for Parliament to get their application forms in.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dE0TWjn3yFQ0 -
Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime...Imperialist war crimes that is.TheScreamingEagles said:This will help with the Corbyn is soft on defence meme
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/8609750590867374080 -
NEW THREAD
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You can't buy friends. Don't give the EU a penny.0
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Would you like to give me odds on Cyprus approving Turkish membership of the EU?Sandpit said:
And yet, one week after the Brexit vote:kle4 said:
The 'lie' was the impression given it was imminent, which it very much is not since they've been talking about it over 30 years and seem to be moving further away from joining, no matter any talk of fast tracking at times (seemingly as just nice talk, rather than any true indication the joining was moving significantly closer). As a leaver, I'll give the remoaners that one.Ishmael_Z said:
It is probably now sinking in with the Remoanariat that compared with these figures £350m a week looks like a sober, cautious, conservative, prudent and responsible estimate. Embarrassing for them, since the only "lie" they can now rely on is that Leave said that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU - a shocking travesty of the true situation, which is that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.
Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36672242
"The EU has opened a new chapter in Turkey's EU membership talks..."0 -
No, Lib Dems 14.RobD said:
Lib Dems 1.4%?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've cleared it upScrapheap_as_was said:
Drop Diane a quick tweet and she'll clear it all upGIN1138 said:Are we ever going to get a correct scores on the doors for YouGov?
Not 14%
Just 14.0 -
We can make an educated assumption.kle4 said:
Maybe he thought about every candidate in those 50 years and liked them all, we don't know.Luckyguy1983 said:
The Corbynite is obviously a cretin, but sorry, so is this woman's dad. There's nothing to be proud of in 50 years of voting for a dog turd as long as it's wearing a red rosette. Glad he's finally engaged some sort of thought process albeit late in life.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
Yeah right.kle4 said:
Maybe he thought about every candidate in those 50 years and liked them all, we don't know.Luckyguy1983 said:
The Corbynite is obviously a cretin, but sorry, so is this woman's dad. There's nothing to be proud of in 50 years of voting for a dog turd as long as it's wearing a red rosette. Glad he's finally engaged some sort of thought process albeit late in life.eek said:Did anyone post this earlier
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/860951471222923266
It ties with what I think I noticed in a few Labour seats yesterday. Votes down 20% from 2013 simply due to people not voting..0 -
rcs1000
The only way this will get resolved is to refer it to an arbitration court in a neutral country.
OK.
The EU claims we owe:
1. Spending that the UK has approved that it will no longer pay for. (As in, we signed off on a five year budget, and if we leave after year two, we approved spending commitments.)
2. A share of the EU's financial liabilities, i.e. the bloc's €80bn of gross debt.
3. A share of the EU's pension liabilities.
4. The cost of relocating EU bodies currently in the UK to the rest of the EU.
In a situation where we to leave the EU without a deal, they would almost certainly go to International Arbitration. It's also quite possible (likely) that the UK government would lose cases with respect to pensions under TUPE legislation in UK courts.
All told, were we to leave without a deal, we'd probably end up with a bill (on my wild estimate/guesses) in the €20-30bn range, once EU assets are taken into consideration.
But. The EU loses out at least as much as we do from no deal. The only outcome that makes any sense is that: (a) we take responsibility for UK MEPs and Eurocrats pensions, (b) the EU accepts that our share of EU assets is c. €20bn, (c) the EU offsets payments during the transition period (say three years x €8bn) as part of the payment. Together they come to (say) €70bn of notional value, and yet we we didn't write a cheque for a single euro-cent, penny or centime.
1 The spending the budget was clearly on the basis that we were a member.
2 Ok with a ceiling fixed at €80bn (not open ended),presumably this is loans with nothing payable except in the case of a default. ?
3 UK MEP /Bureaucrats only.
4 No ,this is completely unreasonable there is nothing to stop them functioning in the UK. until the leases expire.
Agree most of it will be paid off via a transition agreement.
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I suppose it depends on how far the Tories wish to rely on the forces of Bigotry and Ignorance as represented by UKIP - and indeed the BNP - to propel them to a big majority.Black_Rook said:
That's an extremely good point. I keep forgetting that Ukip vote share isn't just down to how much they are squeezed, its also a matter of how many seats they abandon.MarqueeMark said:(snip)
I just think that UKIP will field a much reduced slate of candidates, so their vote share will be down on national polling (even allowing for them standing in their better prospects).
Now, the available polling evidence (as well as a common sense interpretation of what has happened in the local elections) suggests that the migration of voters from Ukip to Con is 4, 5, maybe more than 5 times greater than that from Ukip to Lab - so this could have big implications in nearly all of the Lab/Con marginals outside of London. If Ukip don't field candidates at all in any given seat, then will the fraction of their support that hasn't yet defected stay at home, or split in similar proportions to those who have already abandoned the party? Could possibly be enough to tip a couple of dozen more seats into the Tory column - as well as potentially raising the Con vote share further into the upper 40s.0
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