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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine le Pen might be 26% behind in the polls but she’s attracting 90% of bets at Ladbrokes
MARINE LE PEN might be 24% behind in the polls but she's attracting 90% of the bets on the eve of the French Election – @LadPolitics
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https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.
I would have thought that Europe collapsing into protectionism and recriminations would be a disaster for the British, the French and most of the people of Europe.
Does she want to control which satirical cartoons are acceptable or not?
Here's how Le Pen might be doing better than she appears. According to the polls, about 40% of Melenchon and Fillon voters say they'll abstain in the second round. Which would mean that second round turnout should be sharply lower than in the first round.
Except turnout in the second round of the French election is *always* higher than in the first. Are these voters shy Le Pen voters?
Or will they just stay home?
Or are they genuinely undecided, and might they break late for Macron as the status quo is (currently) the less scary option?
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?
The same people who laughed at UKIP coming 2nd from nowhere in by elections, and only getting one seat from 4m votes at the GE.
Then...
"Oh fuck, Leave won the referendum... Where were the signs?"
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/the-tory-revival-in-scotland-belongs-to-the-unionists/
https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/fasci14chars.html
1 - yes
2 - I suspect she'd say "whatever works", so I'll give her a yes there too
3 - yes
4 - we don't know yet
5 - definitely not
6 - probably not
7 - yes
8 - no
9 - hard to know
10 - probably not
11 - no idea
12 - possibly
13 - not yet
14 - maybe that's why people are piling on at Ladbrokes???
I've said all along that she's more of a Peronist/Kirchner type. An economic model that has worked so well in Argentina.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/860833334787809284
Most parish councils a) have vacancies / don't have contested elections b) are apolitical with even people who belong to one of the main parties and campaign for them at district/county level standing as Independents. So if you want to join the parish council, put your name forward as an independent.
Tho' how fastidious they are nowadays is anyone's guess.
But it doesn't help that, for a lot of voters, neither candidate enthuses them. Logic and history suggests that Le Pen wouldn't be particularly transfer-friendly in the second round, but how many will just say 'sod it' with the pencil in their hand and their eyes on the paper? I guess we'll know in about 27 hours.
Anyone want to take a guess what Joe's "51%" tease is about with reference to tomorrow's ST poll?
Of course, history never repeats itself 100% the same, so it's stupid to suggest that because she doesn't tick every single fascism-of-the-1920s box, she isn't a fascist. Leninism, Maoism, Stalinism all have significant differences with one another and from classical Marxism of the 1800s but we wouldn't say they don't represent forms of Communism.
FWIW I think the case for calling Le Pen herself a fascist is not entirely clear cut, but her party certainly is. The detoxification is skin deep.
I used to know an on course bookmaker, drove a Bentley lived in a massive house in the country, children at good private schools, who knew feck all about horses and form and cared less. He made his very substantial income from a knowledge of numbers and by being able to do the sums very fast and very accurately.
That on this, a supposed betting site, there are still people who think that bookmakers' odds actually imply anything more than, at best, a second order of the probability of an event actually occurring never ceases to amaze me.
Proportion of the electorate who think Leave was right (no thread header)
In a two horse race which is the gambler who doesn't know the form going to pick.
Still, Macron isn't a bad choice either, he will be firm but not vindictive.
In every other way, for us and for France, Macron would be better.
Are we expecting a glut on #UKElection2017 polls tonight?
I thought the question was about being told he wouldn't get on the parish council unless he stood for a particular party, and he was thinking that later on he might want to belong to a different party, and would he be able to change. to which the answer is yes. But better not to join a party you don't necessarily agree with in the first place. the country is littered with councillors who only joined the Tories because they thought that was the only way to get elected. And that is NOT a joke, or made-up. There are several of them on my local unitary authority, self-confessed.
She is mumbling strong and stable to herself and praying the fraud squad dont smoke her out
It does look rather silly.
"We always have been, we are, and I hope that we always shall be, detested in France." (Wellington)
Will there be a left candidate?
You're right though. It was always one of the flaws of Brexit that its success relied on others not behaving in the same way - America has done, and is likely as a result to offer us a far worse trade deal than the one that was on the table with the EU. If France does the same why do people think we'd be in a better place?