politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine le Pen might be 26% behind in the polls but she’s attra

My guess at present:

CON 47%
LAB 24%
LIB 12%
UKIP 3%
GREEN 6%

It will be a bloodbath on election night.....

Sandpit said:

Also note that sub judice and contempt of court rules also very much apply to that usually unregulated political speech bubble that is the Internet.

TM knew all of this when she called the election.

Floater said:

Ho Ho Ho

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/100bn-brexit-bill-legally-impossible-enforce-european-commissions/

[director-general in charge of the budget]Calvino was very clear. The only ‘legally defensible’ approach was not to ‘cherry-pick’ the annual accounts,” said a senior EU diplomatic source, “She could not see how the EU could justify taking into account all the UK’s commitments, but not a share of the assets.”

We are not expects at this type of thing, nor are most people, but the sudden hike in the EU demands never smelt right, it seemed solely about the EU playing its part in escalating matters and making the atmosphere more hostile (yes, the EU is able to contribute to escalation as well as the UK), and was in any case demonstrably cherry picking, something the EU claims not to support anywhere else.

The 'bill' seemed on the face of it wildly overblown and reportedly not enforceable as it was not truly our obligation but a wish list, so its intent was likely just part of the diplomatic shenanigans where each side is trying to get the other to react, and be blamed for the likely no deal we will get. Given the UK is derided and mocked for not understanding the situation, for not preparing properly (with the inference the EU has both understood it perfectly and prepared) it does not make sense that they suddenly discovered they were owed 40bn more euros.

But I've had enough of Brexit for awhile. Either it's no deal, or the current rowing is just showmanship for the cameras, either way neither side can be trusted if it is the latter, and it's all pointless talk if it is the former.

surbiton said:

RobD said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

...'cause surbiton's a lazy bugger.

Thanks. When people like you are there to do it for you..........

Spoken like a true Tory

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 47% (-1)

Lab 28% (-1)

LD 14 (+4)

Changes since Wednesday

Theresa reaches the parts Cameron couldnt reach

Dave and George set up the foundations for this victory, remember they took the Tory party from fewer than 200 MPs to 331 MPs.

Plus Dave was never fortunate to face up against Corbyn.

He did last year in the local elections. And he lost.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

Yes that is quite simply deranged, sacrificing seats for votes.

If it is true there is simply no reason why any Labour candidate should continue to support Corbyn.

FrancisUrquhart said:

28% still seems optimistic for labour.....As does 47% for Tories.

It's going to be sub 25 per cent imho

MarqueeMark said:

My guess at present:

CON 47%
LAB 24%
LIB 12%
UKIP 3%
GREEN 6%

It will be a bloodbath on election night.....

I would say 45% Con and 25% Lab... But it does feel right for a "bloodbath" doesn't it?

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

Isn't driving up vote share rather than focusing on messages in key seats actually how elections should be fought in an ideal world?

justin124 said:

felix said:

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

Dreadful - maybe anyone over 60 should just be put to sleep.

It was a joke - I am over 60 myself!

Indeed - double it plus 4 if your username is an indication.

Luckyguy1983 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

Isn't driving up vote share rather than focusing on messages in key seats actually how elections should be fought in an ideal world?

Nah, see 2015 in England.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/13/corbyns-english-challenge/

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

They are completely bonkers. To hell with the West Midlands and Norh East, let's concentrate on getting the vote out in London and Liverpool.

Great news for @Tissue_Price in Don Valley though!

The Observer picture editor obviously has a mean SOH, choosing that pic of Corbyn.

Prodicus said:

The Observer picture editor obviously has a mean SOH, choosing that pic of Corbyn.

Choosing pics for PB thread headers is something I never expected to enjoy this much.

Sandpit said:

They are completely bonkers. To hell with the West Midlands and Norh East, let's concentrate on getting the vote out in London and Liverpool.

Concentrating on saving seats may make sense, but to sacrifice even that in order to pile up useless votes is actively harmful to the party. How the hell can any Labour candidate put up with "leadership" like that?

Chameleon said:

RobD said:

Floater said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/twlldun/status/860922791012569092?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://www.redcafe.net/threads/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-basically-on-borrowed-time.409447/page-193

LOL

WTF is that nonsense? Such hatred, such anger, such idiocy, such hypocrisy, such lack of coherence. It's a masterpiece.

Was it written by Diane Abbott?

I'd love to see the replies. Mainly in hope that people were calling them out for their insane ideas.

And here are the replies:

http://i.imgur.com/gK8QouA.png

Your privacy will not be affected unless you are voting for Conservatives/Government in power

Oh, well that's fine then.

Sadly, it's Labour voters who don't turn out to vote

Pretty obvious problem with that sentence, but I'll be charitable and assume by 'Labour voter' they meant 'Labour supporter', although frankly they shouldn't rely on that. My anecdotal elderly non-voter and self described 'Labour man' is now saying they will vote in a GE for the first time, but to stop Corbyn. So they supported Labour in theory all their life, but the first time they vote (if they do) will be against them.

I also think ever working class council tenant who votes Tory should have to give up their council house

Yes of course, how dare people vote the wrong way!

I know there are far right idiots who post hilarious nonsense too, but this is some good stuff.

Is jezza really going to stand there a day after the GE with a Tory majority of 150 and say well but I got 29% of the vote with record numbers in places like Liverpool therefore it shows my message is one the British public want to and therefore I will stay on.... Certifiable.

what was the 51% tweet earlier all about?

TheScreamingEagles said:

CORRECTION THE LIB DEMS AREN'T ON 14% WITH YOUGOV. I MISREAD THE ARTICLE

Has anyone checked the stock markets lately? *innocent face*

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

Everyone has to vote. Even if you don't vote Tory just vote, we have to get that share below 30% so he goes.

kle4 said:

Floater said:

Ho Ho Ho

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/100bn-brexit-bill-legally-impossible-enforce-european-commissions/

[director-general in charge of the budget]Calvino was very clear. The only ‘legally defensible’ approach was not to ‘cherry-pick’ the annual accounts,” said a senior EU diplomatic source, “She could not see how the EU could justify taking into account all the UK’s commitments, but not a share of the assets.”

We are not expects at this type of thing, nor are most people, but the sudden hike in the EU demands never smelt right, it seemed solely about the EU playing its part in escalating matters and making the atmosphere more hostile (yes, the EU is able to contribute to escalation as well as the UK), and was in any case demonstrably cherry picking, something the EU claims not to support anywhere else.

The 'bill' seemed on the face of it wildly overblown and reportedly not enforceable as it was not truly our obligation but a wish list, so its intent was likely just part of the diplomatic shenanigans where each side is trying to get the other to react, and be blamed for the likely no deal we will get. Given the UK is derided and mocked for not understanding the situation, for not preparing properly (with the inference the EU has both understood it perfectly and prepared) it does not make sense that they suddenly discovered they were owed 40bn more euros.

But I've had enough of Brexit for awhile. Either it's no deal, or the current rowing is just showmanship for the cameras, either way neither side can be trusted if it is the latter, and it's all pointless talk if it is the former.

The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.

Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

They are completely bonkers. To hell with the West Midlands and Norh East, let's concentrate on getting the vote out in London and Liverpool.

Great news for @Tissue_Price in Don Valley though!

GOTV in Knowsley, ye Gods

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 47% (-1)

Lab 28% (-1)

LD 14 (+4)

Changes since Wednesday

The minor parties must have been massively squeezed to get those figures.

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860967333086605314

I doubt this one moved the markets...

Especially since it's Saturday....before a PB'er makes that comment....

MikeL said:

Cameron must be the most successful politician in terms of electoral progress of all time.

From 165 seats to Government five years later.

Then told that "Whoever wins this GE will be out of power for a generation because of cuts required"

What happened? He governed for 5 years with all the difficulties of coalition and then went on to win a majority (also against the "rule" that governing parties always fall back).

But TMay is the right person for the right time - she will win more votes today than Cameron would have won today - but she could never have achieved what Cameron did between 2005 and 2015.

Don't you mean from 198 seats to Government in five years?

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

My guess at present:

CON 47%
LAB 24%
LIB 12%
UKIP 3%
GREEN 6%

It will be a bloodbath on election night.....

I would say 45% Con and 25% Lab... But it does feel right for a "bloodbath" doesn't it?

While we're in prediction mode, I'll start with C 46 L 27 LD 12, which I think is a Tory majority of 130+. Trouble is, it's hard to be confident that Labour will keep it together for the next 5 weeks.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CORRECTION THE LIB DEMS AREN'T ON 14% WITH YOUGOV. I MISREAD THE ARTICLE

We all make mistakes. In my area yesterday two divisions had incorrect winners declared. Talk about embarrassing (nothing to do with me, I hasten to add).

kjohnw said:

what was the 51% tweet earlier all about?

ramping.

Black_Rook said:

MarqueeMark said:

My guess at present:

CON 47%
LAB 24%
LIB 12%
UKIP 3%
GREEN 6%

It will be a bloodbath on election night.....

I would imagine that the Greens won't do nearly that well (they are the only party liable to be squeezed by Labour,) and that Ukip will not collapse so completely: although they have declined more than I expected, I believe that they do have a constituency that will stick with them. Some people still won't trust either Labour or the Tories, and in particular some will remain sceptical of what May has in mind vis-a-vis Brexit. In short, you can probably swap those Green and Ukip estimates around.

I think you're probably in the right ball park for the Lib Dems. Labour somewhere around 25%, Cons around 45%. I don't believe what the polls that put them around 30% are saying; certainly, if the pollsters continue to stubbornly rate Labour at 30% and they turn out to be right, then I'll be both astonished and fascinated to know where they found all the extra voters!

Historical precedent suggests that Labour should achieve less than their PNS from the locals, and that was only 27%. I therefore remain convinced that polls that are more generous to Labour than that are wrong.

My thinking for the Greens is that they might benefit from some "anti-Corbyn but never Tory" sentiment.

I just think that UKIP will field a much reduced slate of candidates, so their vote share will be down on national polling (even allowing for them standing in their better prospects).

viewcode said:

DINKYs = Double Income, No Kids Yet.

I think I'm the only one who remembers BCBG - bon chic, bon genre - but it never really caught on in England

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByWQz7vusP8

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

cancer in the labour party.

Everyone has to vote. Even if you don't vote Tory just vote, we have to get that share below 30% so he goes.

Tell everyone you know, register to vote before 22nd May. #signuptovote
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NVbJ0QMWKdk

So, LDs and Labour are both now committed to keeping the Triple Lock? Both are really trying to dig into the elderly vote, and presumably thinking the Tories will not commit to keeping it, which I hope is the case but seeing how TMay panicked over the budget I doubt will be the case.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39831522

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649

That's really interesting. Naive little me, I thought that party HQ was arranging for Corbyn to be subtly shoved out of the way of the marginal defences, but I should've known better. They can help out the rank-and-file MPs as much as they can, but what power do they have to influence where the leader goes campaigning?

His pattern of visits all makes perfect sense now: go to Tory-held marginals they know full well they aren't going to win, so that it makes it look as if Team Corbyn is making a genuine effort to take the fight to the Tories - and then back to the ultra safe seats to try to enthuse the base and get the vote up. The marginals can all be abandoned to their fate, whilst Jeremy concentrates on maximising turnout in the inner cities, which are also the places containing disproportionate concentrations of his shrunken list of target voter groups, in particular black and Muslim voters and the very poor. Thus he can genuinely claim his vote share hasn't collapsed, and blame the Tory landslide (which would still come under such circumstances, because Labour turnout would be concentrated in the inner cities, whilst the drop in the vote would be all the more dramatic elsewhere) on Ukip to Con defectors.

Its a perfect formula for wearing Labour down to a genuine Hard Left party, stripped largely of inconvenient white working class voters with traditional views, whilst increasing the proportion of the remaining MPs that are from his own faction at the same time. Why didn't I see it before? It's brilliant! I mean, for the Corbyn faction, not for the Labour Party, which would of course be headed for permanent rump status.

Rallings & Thrasher has the Tories and Labour both 1 point higher than the first BBC estimates on Friday, and the LibDems 4 points lower.

That makes far more sense for the LDs, it didn't make much sense for them to have lost seats if they really had gained as much in voteshare as the BBC were saying.

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The difference is because the €100bn is gross and €60bn net as I read. Some of the figue is liability for loans, to Ireland for example, that are going to be repaid, at which point we get our money back.

Not that it is politically possible to agree anything like that.

It is probably now sinking in with the Remoanariat that compared with these figures £350m a week looks like a sober, cautious, conservative, prudent and responsible estimate. Embarrassing for them, since the only "lie" they can now rely on is that Leave said that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU - a shocking travesty of the true situation, which is that negotiations were on foot for Turkey to join the EU.

The 'lie' was the impression given it was imminent, which it very much is not since they've been talking about it over 30 years and seem to be moving further away from joining, no matter any talk of fast tracking at times (seemingly as just nice talk, rather than any true indication the joining was moving significantly closer). As a leaver, I'll give the remoaners that one.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.

Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.

Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?

I meant by my girlfriend.

Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860969161261973505

Well Sporting Index, Spreadex and Betfair all reckon they'll pick up 70 or 75!

Given how bad Ralling and Thrasher's predictions have been during the last two years, we should be getting ready for a Tory majority of 250 on June 8th

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.

Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?

I meant by my girlfriend.

Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.

Lowering the tone with the morning thread again?

Chameleon said:

What's Rallings and Thrasher's previous record on elections like?

Somewhere between Gord bad and Jezza bad...

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.

Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?

I meant by my girlfriend.

Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.

Lowering the tone with the morning thread again?

Subject content and lowering the tone.

Only saving grace is that it is a betting thread,

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.

Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?

I meant by my girlfriend.

Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.

Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.

Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?

I meant by my girlfriend.

Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.

Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?

Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860969161261973505

Rallings and Thrasher say Mrs May will pick up just 24 seats on June 8th
That's not what the extract says, unless there's more to it than I can see. It says Rallings and Thrasher says they got X in the locals, then the article says that puts them on course to win 24 seats. But that presumes X is what the proportions will be on 8 June, and the pictured extract doesn't say Rallings and Thrasher think that will be the case. They might do, but the extract doesn't say.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Something tells me I'm going to get dumped during this general election campaign.

Mike finally going to bring someone in that knows what they're doing?

I meant by my girlfriend.

Though I suspect Mike may dump me after tomorrow's morning thread.

Has she been put off by the relentless AV discussions?

Darling, would you excuse me for a few minutes whilst I tweet, post to a blog, and bet is starting to annoy her I fear.

Have you mentioned it is a blog read by Prime Ministers?