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Pulpstar said:

Labour might hit 29%. (Which opinion polls would have as 30%)

Think about it - UKIP will collapse to around 3% I think since they won't run candidates.
Lib Dems will add around half the vote share back to end up ~ 12%.
The Greens might be eaten into a bit by Labour, perhaps end up with ~ 2%.

UKIP + LD + Green + Tory + Labour must come to 92% or so I think.

3+12+2+29 which would mean 46% for the Tories. (Equiv to a polling score of ~47)

So 2-3-12-29-46 could be the final result.

That'd mean a 17 pt lead but the Labour vote would be holding up where it needs to least - particularly in terms of stemming the Tory tide.

That's a good point. Worth remembering some UKIP voters will be going home back to Labour.

Pulpstar said:

Labour might hit 29%. (Which opinion polls would have as 30%)

Think about it - UKIP will collapse to around 3% I think since they won't run candidates.
Lib Dems will add around half the vote share back to end up ~ 12%.
The Greens might be eaten into a bit by Labour, perhaps end up with ~ 2%.

UKIP + LD + Green + Tory + Labour must come to 92% or so I think.

3+12+2+29 which would mean 46% for the Tories. (Equiv to a polling score of ~47)

So 2-3-12-29-46 could be the final result.

That'd mean a 17 pt lead but the Labour vote would be holding up where it needs to least - particularly in terms of stemming the Tory tide.

I predicted 44/27 Tory/labour earlier so can well see this been how it pans out. I don't see how Labour can reach 30%.

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

You think 55 year olds are senile and infirm?

You're one sad, strange little man.

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

You think 55 year olds are senile and infirm?

You're one sad, strange little man.

No, it's just the half life for brainwashing by the right wing media is ~55 years.

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Especially with a CPS bombshell. I think the earliest possible announcement would be May 8th (Mon), if the MP under question submitted their expenses the day after the election (TSE, correct me if I am wrong)

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Plenty of the Labour voters that I know are neither pro or anti Jezza, to them it is just court politics if they are aware of it at all. Fair numbers were Leavers too, mostly with the old school left wing leaver mentality that sees the EU as a capitalists club.

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

There's an epidemic of the senile and infirm at just past age 54?! Why isn't that bigger news?

Only a flu epidemic starting 6th June can minimise Labour's defeat.

What about all those early postal votes?

Been out. Le Pen's price has gone for a walk. Now 15 on Betfair.

I miss something?

MTimT said:

Is there going to be an election prediction competition this time? FWIW, for the GB vote, I'll go for something like:
Tories 45.6%
Labour 24.7%
LDs 11.8%
UKIP 6.9%
Greens 5.4%
SNP 5.0%
Others the balance

UKIP and Green look a tad high?

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Especially with a CPS bombshell. I think the earliest possible announcement would be May 8th (Mon), if the MP under question submitted their expenses the day after the election (TSE, correct me if I am wrong)

There's a lot can happen in a month. I imagine someone somewhere is trying to hack into all the political parties as I write this (it's not me though!). And who knows what Wikileaks have....

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Especially with a CPS bombshell. I think the earliest possible announcement would be May 8th (Mon), if the MP under question submitted their expenses the day after the election (TSE, correct me if I am wrong)

Isn't that the earliest possible deadline? An announcement can happen any day before and including the deadline.

Yes, I should have worded it like that. Unfortunately, we don't know when the various submissions occurred. I assume the CPS will announce no charges, so we should expect to hear something in the next couple of weeks.

UKIP managed to lose more councillors in England than Labour
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 22h22 hours ago
English results:

Con: 1,457 (+338)
Lab: 411 (-147)
LDem: 306 (-32)
Grn: 20 (-)
UKIP: 1 (-148)
Ind / Oth: 198 (-6)

logical_song said:

UKIP managed to lose more councillors in England than Labour
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 22h22 hours ago
English results:

Con: 1,457 (+338)
Lab: 411 (-147)
LDem: 306 (-32)
Grn: 20 (-)
UKIP: 1 (-148)
Ind / Oth: 198 (-6)

Final numbers on the BBC were Lab-142, UKIP -143. Although they report a lower number of Tory councillors (1439), so maybe they aren't final?

chestnut said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,

Labour are behind with every group except 18-34 year olds.

The group least likely to vote

51% : Tory support in Scotland? Or Wales Or Midlands? Or North? Or London
51% : Those in favour of remain exc D/K
51% : Average margin of error of opinion polls in the UK
51% : Percentage of UKIP voters switched to Tories
51% : percentage of Labour supporters certain to vote
51% : May's net popularity
51% : Percentage of Labour supporters who think Corbyn should resign.

surbiton said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

How did Trump win in the rust belt ? About 5% who never or rarely voted came out for him.

In the UK, 30% don't vote [ I am talking about those on the electoral rolls ]. Corbyn appeals to some people. Can 5% of those come and vote. It won't solve Labour's problem but could cut the deficit.

Yes, exactly. This was the promised land of disaffected non-voters the Corbynites claimed he would lead them to all along.

I think it will help Labour pile up votes in seats that are already absolutely safe, but I can't discount the possibility that it will help bring people out in 'rust belt' areas where we are currently assuming the Con + UKIP vote from 2015 going mostly to the Conservatives this time would otherwise wipe Labour out.

Even if it does only help Labour pile up votes in safe seats, getting somewhere close to 30% share of the vote will be all the mandate Corbyn needs to carry on...

MTimT said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bonkers...made comments 2 years ago, now the plod investigating.

Stephen Fry faces blasphemy probe after God comments

Officers are understood to be examining whether the British comedian committed a criminal offence under the Defamation Act when he appeared on RTE in 2015.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39830447

I saw that in the Telegraph

Seriously, if people want to criticise religion let them.

I hope they charge him and it goes to court. Not because I think he should be punished - far from it, I hold blasphemy laws in contempt and cannot believe that such a law is compatible with the ECHR - but because listening to Fry take on whichever poor sod got the task of prosecuting him would be pure comedy gold.

Beofre I clicked on it I thought it was a going to be in a Muslim country, not Ireland. LOL. Suprising.

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

There's an epidemic of the senile and infirm at just past age 54?! Why isn't that bigger news?

Only a flu epidemic starting 6th June can minimise Labour's defeat.

The Spanish flu in 1918-19 took the young and the strong though....

matt said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Bobo?

That one escaped me too. A quick google leads me to believe it is 'BOurgeois BOhemiam'.

I've never heard that one before, but I saw an Observer article asking it was next after Hippy and Yuppie.

Personally I think hippy is making a comeback, at least in my own lexicon, though I prefer sandalista.

RobD said:

logical_song said:

UKIP managed to lose more councillors in England than Labour
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 22h22 hours ago
English results:

Con: 1,457 (+338)
Lab: 411 (-147)
LDem: 306 (-32)
Grn: 20 (-)
UKIP: 1 (-148)
Ind / Oth: 198 (-6)

Final numbers on the BBC were Lab-142, UKIP -143. Although they report a lower number of Tory councillors (1439), so maybe they aren't final?

Have Rallings and Thrasher offered an explanation yet?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-dems-set-to-gain-100-council-seats-djx8cn0xh

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

logical_song said:

UKIP managed to lose more councillors in England than Labour
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 22h22 hours ago
English results:

Con: 1,457 (+338)
Lab: 411 (-147)
LDem: 306 (-32)
Grn: 20 (-)
UKIP: 1 (-148)
Ind / Oth: 198 (-6)

Final numbers on the BBC were Lab-142, UKIP -143. Although they report a lower number of Tory councillors (1439), so maybe they aren't final?

Have Rallings and Thrasher offered an explanation yet?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-dems-set-to-gain-100-council-seats-djx8cn0xh

I suspected they underestimated the amount of UKIP voters switching to the Tories. Despite the LDs improving in vote share, the Tories improved more.

SeanT said:

matt said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Bobo?

French term. The bohemian bourgeoisie. The best UK equivalent (and it is quite close) is Guardianista.

They must be feeling disgruntled with their paper of choice then - is there now a columnist at the Guardian who hasn't proclaimed him an utter liability?

SeanT said:

matt said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Bobo?

French term. The bohemian bourgeoisie. The best UK equivalent (and it is quite close) is Guardianista.

I remember the eighties bubble, when it meant "Burnt out, but opulent".

nunu said:

MTimT said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bonkers...made comments 2 years ago, now the plod investigating.

Stephen Fry faces blasphemy probe after God comments

Officers are understood to be examining whether the British comedian committed a criminal offence under the Defamation Act when he appeared on RTE in 2015.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39830447

I saw that in the Telegraph

Seriously, if people want to criticise religion let them.

I hope they charge him and it goes to court. Not because I think he should be punished - far from it, I hold blasphemy laws in contempt and cannot believe that such a law is compatible with the ECHR - but because listening to Fry take on whichever poor sod got the task of prosecuting him would be pure comedy gold.

Beofre I clicked on it I thought it was a going to be in a Muslim country, not Ireland. LOL. Suprising.

The country which is currently arguing over whether the state should build a new central maternity hospital in Dublin and pass title to an order of particularly bigoted and unpleasant nuns.

MarqueeMark said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

There's an epidemic of the senile and infirm at just past age 54?! Why isn't that bigger news?

Only a flu epidemic starting 6th June can minimise Labour's defeat.

The Spanish flu in 1918-19 took the young and the strong though....

That idea has become something of a myth. It took infants, young adults and old adults. This is because, unlike most flus that bind in the nasal passages, this one bound deep in the lungs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic#/media/File:W_curve.png

Also, epidemics don't hit everywhere all at once but come in waves over a period of time, hitting different parts of a country at different times - the Spanish flu came in 3 waves in the UK:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic#/media/File:1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

chestnut said:

Public approval / disapproval of...
T. May: 46 / 33
J. Corbyn: 21 / 53
T. Farron: 14 / 39
P. Nuttall: 8 / 48

Fairly believable vote shares.

So the VI polls turn that into 10% of people will go well I think corbyn is utter shit but still going to vote labour. Having a giraffe.

chestnut said:

Public approval / disapproval of...
T. May: 46 / 33
J. Corbyn: 21 / 53
T. Farron: 14 / 39
P. Nuttall: 8 / 48

Fairly believable vote shares.

Those numbers are dire for Farron.

Sean_F said:

matt said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Bobo?

Bourgeois Bohemians.

Thx. A very minority sport then.

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

I am well over 55 and neither senile nor infirm.

But making comments like that reminds me that mental faculties start deteriorating at a much earlier age if you don't look after yourself or stigmatise groups of people you don't know..
:-)

Bit of a delay, but just caught up with Isle of Wight gossip after a visit from my Sister and let us say Mr Turner has not been popular on the Island for a long time and was only voted for by the old codgers on the Island because of his rosette.

The local party has tried to deselect him for a long time and I've now got all the gossip on the personal issues that would effect anyone's ability to do the job properly. I have a friend whose parents are involved in the local party.

His public slip up at the school was the excuse needed to give him the boot, no one is sad to see him go.

All those thinking the election expenses could hurt the Tories, is there more danger of a wikileaks / Russian hack against the Tories being the black swan event?

They will definitely prefer the idiot communist lot who are feedle on security to Mrs stick it up your junker.

houndtang said:

My guess at present

CON 44%
LAB 28%
LIB 12%
UKIP 5%
GREEN 5%


For the Tories to breach 44% would in itself be quite an achievement. That hasn't happened since 1970 (when Labour actually lost with a vote share of 43%).

Those are the 1983 shares for Con and Lab. Looks about right to me, although I'd put the smaller parties slightly higher, eg. Con 42%, Lab 26%, LD 14%, UKIP 7%, Green 5%.

FrancisUrquhart said:

All those thinking the election expenses could hurt the Tories, is there more danger of a wikileaks / Russian hack against the Tories being the black swan event?

They will definitely prefer the idiot communist lot who are feedle on security to Mrs stick it up your junker.

I'm struggling to think of a revelation that could possibly derail Theresa right now. As Home Secretary she deliberately waived visa restrictions in the full knowledge that the applicants were Jihadist terrorists?

IanB2 said:

MTimT said:

Is there going to be an election prediction competition this time? FWIW, for the GB vote, I'll go for something like:
Tories 45.6%
Labour 24.7%
LDs 11.8%
UKIP 6.9%
Greens 5.4%
SNP 5.0%
Others the balance

UKIP and Green look a tad high?

I'd go:

Tories ....... 43.5%
Labour ...... 27.7%
LibDem ..... 13.3%
UKIP ........... 5.2%
Greens ....... 4.1%
SNP ............ 4.8%
Others ........ 1.4%

Tory Seats: 385 = 120 Overall Majority

MarkHopkins said:

RobD said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

kyf_100 said:

SquareRoot said:

RobD said:

New ORB poll from the Telegraph?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/tories-course-gain-biggest-landslide-election-victory-seen-fifty/

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LD9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

Labour are overstated. Does anyone really believe one in three will vote for Corbyn's party, with henchmen like McDonnell and Milne. I don't

What if we're wrong and Corbyn really is picking up votes from the disenfranchised and disillusioned?

What if against all wisdom, there is a hardcore of people - old lefties set in their ways and young anti-capitalist types - who are boosting Corbyn's share of the vote? Add that to Labour's client vote of public sector types and is 31% impossible?

We're seeing these figures again and again and again.

It won't help him in the marginals, but it could explain the national share of vote holding up.

I can't believe it, but we'd be fools to discount the possibility entirely.

Students, university workers, Bobos think Corbyn is wonderful. Add Black and Muslim voters, people who maintain tribal loyalty to Labour, extreme left wingers, public sector unions, and 30% is quite feasible.

Especially with a CPS bombshell. I think the earliest possible announcement would be May 8th (Mon), if the MP under question submitted their expenses the day after the election (TSE, correct me if I am wrong)

Surely you are looking at the latest possible announcements in that case: the CPS have a maximum of two years, not a minimum. On the other hand, would the expense returns for the more interesting seats have been submitted early?

I think they have a month to submit their claims. So the last deadline is June 7th. Some submit quick, some don't.

But the CPS don't have to wait to the last minute. So they are delaying it because:-

a) They don't have a case and want to make everyone wait.

b) It's a complex case and they need to consider it as carefully as possible.

c) They hate the Tories and want to damage them as much as possible.

Any other reasons?

d) The Tory Party was uncooperative.

e) The Tory Party went to court to stop this happening.

FrancisUrquhart said:

All those thinking the election expenses could hurt the Tories, is there more danger of a wikileaks / Russian hack against the Tories being the black swan event?

They will definitely prefer the idiot communist lot who are feedle on security to Mrs stick it up your junker.

I'd be absolutely shitting myself now if I were doing IT for one of the major parties. To the point of hiring some ex-GCHQ and MI6 guys to run information security, and of seriously exploring the dusting off of fax machines and conference call equipment for the really confidential stuff. Not getting hacked when the Russians really want to do it, is bloody hard work.

I suppose the bobos are up against the NAPs, the true bourgeoisie of Neuilly, Auteuil and Passy on the leafy western fringes of Paris. The Le Pen family with their villa in Saint Cloud are part of that set, despite their pretended common touch.

FF43 said:

I suppose the bobos are up against the NAPs, the true bourgeoisie of Neuilly, Auteuil and Passy on the leafy western fringes of Paris. The Le Pen family with their villa in Saint Cloud are part of that set, despite their pretended common touch.

Very nice out that way. I was a little further out at Maisons Lafitte for a while, right by the chateau.

Liverpool fans to unveil huge Jeremy Corbyn banner at Anfield tomorrow

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

Liverpool fans to unveil huge Jeremy Corbyn banner at Anfield tomorrow

I hope diane abbott didn't have anything to do with the measurements!

It will be a massive 4" x 2".

bigjohnowls said:

Liverpool fans to unveil huge Jeremy Corbyn banner at Anfield tomorrow

"You'll Never Walk Alone ....

Into The Electoral Abyss

You'll Take Dozens Of Labour MP With You ...."

bigjohnowls said:

Liverpool fans to unveil huge Jeremy Corbyn banner at Anfield tomorrow

A massive black armband, to commemorate the passing of the Labour Party?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Re France - is tomorrrow Hollande's last day or is there a transistional period

There was a nine day transitional period last time.

MarqueeMark said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

In the Opinium tables, VI all 10, if we add up the numbers voting 18-34, 35-44, 45-54,
we get, C 259, Lab 269.

However, Labour are massacred thereafter. 55+ C 315, Lab 99.

The subsets are hilarious. Wales Con 29, Lab 14, PC 4. In fact, Con 29 out of 62.

At this rate, they will win every seat in Wales!

So Labour is going to be defeated by the senile and infirm?!!

There's an epidemic of the senile and infirm at just past age 54?! Why isn't that bigger news?

Only a flu epidemic starting 6th June can minimise Labour's defeat.

The Spanish flu in 1918-19 took the young and the strong though....

spit it out then.. if you haven't already....

JackW said:

bigjohnowls said:

Liverpool fans to unveil huge Jeremy Corbyn banner at Anfield tomorrow

"You'll Never Walk Alone ....

Into The Electoral Abyss

You'll Take Dozens Of Labour MP With You ...."

Never will the mocking words "sign on, sign on, with a pen in your hand, 'cos you'll never get a job" be more appropriate.