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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine le Pen might be 26% behind in the polls but she’s attracting 90% of bets at Ladbrokes
MARINE LE PEN might be 24% behind in the polls but she's attracting 90% of the bets on the eve of the French Election – @LadPolitics
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First. Strange what proportion of the cash is going on Le Pen?0
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Second like the fascist0
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Oh and remember the French courts have ruled she can be legally called a fascist so not bring disrepute etc on Mike's site by saying that.0
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Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.0
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Fifth0
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People who regret not making money from Brexit and Trump and are hoping for third time lucky.FrankBooth said:First. Strange what proportion of the cash is going on Le Pen?
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Leavers betting with their hearts rather than their heads, I expect.0
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Is Le Pen mightier than les polls?0
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Remainers swimming against the tide I expectAlastairMeeks said:Leavers betting with their hearts rather than their heads, I expect.
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In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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TSE is that you???Philip_Thompson said:Second like the fascist
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surbiton said:
I think 3 is possible. I think Dumbarton is part of West Dunbartonshire. East Lothian is on. Labour won both in 2016 Holyrood as well as Edinburgh South.justin124 said:
I think Labour could end up with 4 or 5 seats in Scotland. East Lothian - Edinburgh North - Dumbarton - one of the Paisley seats . Also Renfrew East seems to be a threeway marginal.felix said:
Looks like they did better than expected mostly in places like Glasgow and Dundee. I think that gives them a very tough ask in the GE - harder than the Tories for picking up a few seats.justin124 said:
True - though SLAB outperformed expectations more than the Tories.Few expected them to poll 21/22%.RobD said:
They were down slightly in terms of numbers based on the notional results on the new boundaries. SNP won, but SCON were the biggest gainers of the night.malcolmg said:Don't see much on here re SNP increasing their vote share and number of councillors , already at an all time high, yesterday. Media as ever trying to make out Tories won , they are almost as biased as PB. Did the tide stop at Berwick.
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Mike, not only 40% in France might vote for the fascist, 30% here in PB could do it.MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.0
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Ireland?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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Labour to put John McDonnell at centre of fightback after local elections (LOL)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre0 -
Leavers untaxed black money, mostly.AlastairMeeks said:Leavers betting with their hearts rather than their heads, I expect.
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In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
Gower was one of the big shocks of 2015. Tallying local election results gives Labour a comfortable lead. I just wonder if Labour can pull off a very big shock there?0
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Easy money for Laddies.0
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Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_local_elections,_2017surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
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In what way is she a Fascist?rcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.
Does she want to control which satirical cartoons are acceptable or not?0 -
Boom boom.Sandpit said:Is Le Pen mightier than les polls?
Here's how Le Pen might be doing better than she appears. According to the polls, about 40% of Melenchon and Fillon voters say they'll abstain in the second round. Which would mean that second round turnout should be sharply lower than in the first round.
Except turnout in the second round of the French election is *always* higher than in the first. Are these voters shy Le Pen voters?
Or will they just stay home?
Or are they genuinely undecided, and might they break late for Macron as the status quo is (currently) the less scary option?0 -
A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?0 -
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
The strange thing is people celebrating a fascist 'only' getting 40%ish of the French vote
The same people who laughed at UKIP coming 2nd from nowhere in by elections, and only getting one seat from 4m votes at the GE.
Then...
"Oh fuck, Leave won the referendum... Where were the signs?"
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Nevertheless, numbers are numbers and they tell a story that cannot sensibly be denied even if many people continue to insist that what has happened has not in fact happened. There is a Scottish Conservative and Unionist revival and only fools cannot see it.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/the-tory-revival-in-scotland-belongs-to-the-unionists/0 -
The 14 Characteristics of FascismSunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?rcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.
Does she want to control which satirical cartoons are acceptable or not?
https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/fasci14chars.html
1 - yes
2 - I suspect she'd say "whatever works", so I'll give her a yes there too
3 - yes
4 - we don't know yet
5 - definitely not
6 - probably not
7 - yes
8 - no
9 - hard to know
10 - probably not
11 - no idea
12 - possibly
13 - not yet
14 - maybe that's why people are piling on at Ladbrokes???
I've said all along that she's more of a Peronist/Kirchner type. An economic model that has worked so well in Argentina.0 -
I've often thought of fascism as being about applying military values to civilian life. No surprise that it emerged in Europe after a generation of young men had spent four years fighting in the trenches. Authoritarian, conformist, nationalistic, even racial superiority.rcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
Ladbrokes may be taking their money but it's not moving the odds, lol.0
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What order are the votes being counted in? Any chance of the exit polling pushing her odds out, only for them to come in after some early results again? Just curious whether there's money to be made in being quick on the trigger tomorrow, or whether I might as well just chuck even more on Macron for a 24 hour return.0
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Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/8608333347878092840 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_Nazi_GermanyCommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
STV multimember will tend to give low numbers to those who are below the multimember constituency size.Theuniondivvie said:
Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/8608333347878092840 -
no, as long as you renounced party A before joining party B. However, would be a bit odd to join party A knowing that you fully intended to join party B.Freggles said:A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?
Most parish councils a) have vacancies / don't have contested elections b) are apolitical with even people who belong to one of the main parties and campaign for them at district/county level standing as Independents. So if you want to join the parish council, put your name forward as an independent.0 -
From my perspective, I wouldn't want Le Pen to win, but I am not a native Briton. The UK has already chosen the path of protectionism and recriminations, as exemplified by Chairman May's petulant outburst in Downing Street on Wednesday. Given that Brexit is looming, an arch Euro-federalist will not be helpful to the UK. I would have preferred Fillon, until the financial nepotism came to light.rcs1000 said:
Why?daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
I would have thought that Europe collapsing into protectionism and recriminations would be a disaster for the British, the French and most of the people of Europe.0 -
In what way has the SNP done badly ? They did not win every seat ?rcs1000 said:
STV multimember will tend to give low numbers to those who are below the multimember constituency size.Theuniondivvie said:
Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/8608333347878092840 -
No. It's just a label on the ballot paper and, in larger councils triggers the rules that apply to political groups. I don't believe these apply to parish councils. Just like an MP, you can defect at any time!Freggles said:A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?0 -
The exit polls are an actual sample from real ballot boxes, so they're pretty accurate.ab195 said:What order are the votes being counted in? Any chance of the exit polling pushing her odds out, only for them to come in after some early results again? Just curious whether there's money to be made in being quick on the trigger tomorrow, or whether I might as well just chuck even more on Macron for a 24 hour return.
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Yet Remainers here still think its a great idea to pool sovereignty with nations where 40% would vote for a fascist (France) and nearly 50% would vote for the far right (Austria). Great idea, what could possibly go wrong there ...surbiton said:
Mike, not only 40% in France might vote for the fascist, 30% here in PB could do it.MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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As a matter of interest, is Nazi Germany the only fascist country you recognise?Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_Nazi_GermanyCommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
(Scarily, I'm happy to pool sovereignty with people in a country where almost a third would vote for Corbyn.)Philip_Thompson said:
Yet Remainers here still think its a great idea to pool sovereignty with nations where 40% would vote for a fascist (France) and nearly 50% would vote for the far right (Austria). Great idea, what could possibly go wrong there ...surbiton said:
Mike, not only 40% in France might vote for the fascist, 30% here in PB could do it.MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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Le Pen is a facist. No Wikipedia article about Nazi Germany will change that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_Nazi_GermanyCommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
Under the multi-member FPTnP used for English unitary council elections, it would have been an SNP landslide. Thank the Scottish LibDems for their fairer and more sensible voting system!surbiton said:
In what way has the SNP done badly ? They did not win every seat ?rcs1000 said:
STV multimember will tend to give low numbers to those who are below the multimember constituency size.Theuniondivvie said:
Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/860833334787809284
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Don't defections happen quite regularly in parish councils, to the point that they're not really news (same as most things for parish councils to be fair).Freggles said:A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?0 -
If the minor party was the BNP then I believe UKIP would refuse membership.Freggles said:A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?
Tho' how fastidious they are nowadays is anyone's guess.0 -
Their share of first preferences - relative to 2015 (GE) and 2016 (Holyrood) - has come down meaningfully. They are still number one by a large margin, but they are no longer achieving half the vote.surbiton said:
In what way has the SNP done badly ? They did not win every seat ?rcs1000 said:
STV multimember will tend to give low numbers to those who are below the multimember constituency size.Theuniondivvie said:
Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/8608333347878092840 -
As long as she gets 35-45% then my Betfair account will be happyrcs1000 said:
Boom boom.Sandpit said:Is Le Pen mightier than les polls?
Here's how Le Pen might be doing better than she appears. According to the polls, about 40% of Melenchon and Fillon voters say they'll abstain in the second round. Which would mean that second round turnout should be sharply lower than in the first round.
Except turnout in the second round of the French election is *always* higher than in the first. Are these voters shy Le Pen voters?
Or will they just stay home?
Or are they genuinely undecided, and might they break late for Macron as the status quo is (currently) the less scary option?
But it doesn't help that, for a lot of voters, neither candidate enthuses them. Logic and history suggests that Le Pen wouldn't be particularly transfer-friendly in the second round, but how many will just say 'sod it' with the pencil in their hand and their eyes on the paper? I guess we'll know in about 27 hours.0 -
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/860817868648329217
Anyone want to take a guess what Joe's "51%" tease is about with reference to tomorrow's ST poll?0 -
Only if you think the collapse of the EU and constant antagonism in Europe would be a good thing. Regardless of where it would leave us in negotiations the economic chaos would send us straight into recession. It would be another 2008.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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Tory vote share. What else could it possibly be ?Lord_Liverpool said:https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/860817868648329217
Anyone want to take a guess what Joe's "51%" tease is about with reference to tomorrow's ST poll?0 -
Well, that's Nazism, a form of fascism, but not the only one. People assume by calling her a fascist that it is equating her to Hitler, and therefore saying the claims are ridiculous because she's clearly not a Nazi. But I think a more solid case can be made that she aims to replicate the cultural fascism approach of 1920s Mussolini Italy.CommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.
Of course, history never repeats itself 100% the same, so it's stupid to suggest that because she doesn't tick every single fascism-of-the-1920s box, she isn't a fascist. Leninism, Maoism, Stalinism all have significant differences with one another and from classical Marxism of the 1800s but we wouldn't say they don't represent forms of Communism.
FWIW I think the case for calling Le Pen herself a fascist is not entirely clear cut, but her party certainly is. The detoxification is skin deep.0 -
It's already pooled. Big difference.rcs1000 said:
(Scarily, I'm happy to pool sovereignty with people in a country where almost a third would vote for Corbyn.)Philip_Thompson said:
Yet Remainers here still think its a great idea to pool sovereignty with nations where 40% would vote for a fascist (France) and nearly 50% would vote for the far right (Austria). Great idea, what could possibly go wrong there ...surbiton said:
Mike, not only 40% in France might vote for the fascist, 30% here in PB could do it.MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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That doesn't make sense and suggests either the story is wrong or Ladbrokes are a bunch of idiots who aren't trying to make make money. All bookies throughout the multiverse adjust odds to reflect the money that has been staked, if they didn't then they would be gambling themselves and would sooner or later go bust.IanB2 said:Ladbrokes may be taking their money but it's not moving the odds, lol.
I used to know an on course bookmaker, drove a Bentley lived in a massive house in the country, children at good private schools, who knew feck all about horses and form and cared less. He made his very substantial income from a knowledge of numbers and by being able to do the sums very fast and very accurately.
That on this, a supposed betting site, there are still people who think that bookmakers' odds actually imply anything more than, at best, a second order of the probability of an event actually occurring never ceases to amaze me.0 -
Indeed. The ill will that many Brexiters seem to wish the EU defies all logic. Brexit itself will turn out better if the economies of our nearest neighbours are thriving.MJW said:
Only if you think the collapse of the EU and constant antagonism in Europe would be a good thing. Regardless of where it would leave us in negotiations the economic chaos would send us straight into recession. It would be another 2008.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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Touchércs1000 said:
(Scarily, I'm happy to pool sovereignty with people in a country where almost a third would vote for Corbyn.)Philip_Thompson said:
Yet Remainers here still think its a great idea to pool sovereignty with nations where 40% would vote for a fascist (France) and nearly 50% would vote for the far right (Austria). Great idea, what could possibly go wrong there ...surbiton said:
Mike, not only 40% in France might vote for the fascist, 30% here in PB could do it.MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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She is an authoritarian nationalist.Paristonda said:
Well, that's Nazism, a form of fascism, but not the only one. People assume by calling her a fascist that it is equating her to Hitler, and therefore saying the claims are ridiculous because she's clearly not a Nazi. But I think a more solid case can be made that she aims to replicate the cultural fascism approach of 1920s Mussolini Italy.CommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.
Of course, history never repeats itself 100% the same, so it's stupid to suggest that because she doesn't tick every single fascism-of-the-1920s box, she isn't a fascist. Leninism, Maoism, Stalinism all have significant differences with one another and from classical Marxism of the 1800s but we wouldn't say they don't represent forms of Communism.
FWIW I think the case for calling Le Pen herself a fascist is not entirely clear cut, but her party certainly is. The detoxification is skin deep.0 -
I did not imply it was a good thing overall, but made a comment about the British perspective, as Britain has already chosen the path of economic recession and antagonism in Europe by voting Leave last June.MJW said:
Only if you think the collapse of the EU and constant antagonism in Europe would be a good thing. Regardless of where it would leave us in negotiations the economic chaos would send us straight into recession. It would be another 2008.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
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But the second placed and third placed have changed positions. In fact, 43:23:21 would be handy for the SNP with FPTP.rcs1000 said:
Their share of first preferences - relative to 2015 (GE) and 2016 (Holyrood) - has come down meaningfully. They are still number one by a large margin, but they are no longer achieving half the vote.surbiton said:
In what way has the SNP done badly ? They did not win every seat ?rcs1000 said:
STV multimember will tend to give low numbers to those who are below the multimember constituency size.Theuniondivvie said:
Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/8608333347878092840 -
My guess is that lots of small bets are being placed on Le Pen and fewer larger ones on Macron. With Brexit and Trump, the small players won out, but third time around the big guys will surely recover their losses.HurstLlama said:
That doesn't make sense and suggests either the story is wrong or Ladbrokes are a bunch of idiots who aren't trying to make make money. All bookies throughout the multiverse adjust odds to reflect the money that has been staked, if they didn't then they would be gambling themselves and would sooner or later go bust.IanB2 said:Ladbrokes may be taking their money but it's not moving the odds, lol.
I used to know an on course bookmaker, drove a Bentley lived in a massive house in the country, children at good private schools, who knew feck all about horses and form and cared less. He made his very substantial income from a knowledge of numbers and by being able to do the sums very fast and very accurately.
That on this, a supposed betting site, there are still people who think that bookmakers' odds actually imply anything more than, at best, a second order of the probability of an event actually occurring never ceases to amaze me.0 -
Proportion of the electorate who think Remain was right (in which case we get a thread header)Pulpstar said:
Tory vote share. What else could it possibly be ?Lord_Liverpool said:https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/860817868648329217
Anyone want to take a guess what Joe's "51%" tease is about with reference to tomorrow's ST poll?
Proportion of the electorate who think Leave was right (no thread header)0 -
You keep saying that! But my question is by what meaningful criteria is she a Fascist?CommanderShepard said:
Le Pen is a facist. No Wikipedia article about Nazi Germany will change that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_Nazi_GermanyCommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
I think MEPs are (were) the only people in Britain elected via a party rather than as individuals.IanB2 said:
No. It's just a label on the ballot paper and, in larger councils triggers the rules that apply to political groups. I don't believe these apply to parish councils. Just like an MP, you can defect at any time!Freggles said:A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?0 -
Hide Corbyn away in a cupboard and bring out Mr Hammer and Sickle. What could go wrong?IanB2 said:Labour to put John McDonnell at centre of fightback after local elections (LOL)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre0 -
No, as it happens. Since parish councils don't have political groups, as such, the concept of defection doesn't really apply.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't defections happen quite regularly in parish councils, to the point that they're not really news (same as most things for parish councils to be fair).Freggles said:A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?0 -
Labour vote share?Pulpstar said:
Tory vote share. What else could it possibly be ?Lord_Liverpool said:https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/860817868648329217
Anyone want to take a guess what Joe's "51%" tease is about with reference to tomorrow's ST poll?0 -
As I said before she is an authoritarian nationalist.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You keep saying that! But my question is by what meaningful criteria is she a Fascist?CommanderShepard said:
Le Pen is a facist. No Wikipedia article about Nazi Germany will change that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_Nazi_GermanyCommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
Le Pen is 10/1, Macron is 1/10 (approximately).
In a two horse race which is the gambler who doesn't know the form going to pick.0 -
I think a narrow case could be made in relation to Brexit negotiations, that Le Pen, looking to achieve similar goals to us, presents at least additional leverage to TMay - she could basically side up with Merkel ("France has abandoned you but we can still be partners") as a sort of Mainstream front, or she could negotiate in tandem with Le Pen. Le Pen has greatly watered down her Frexit plans so I think even if she were to be elected we would not see the fall of the EU.rcs1000 said:
Why?daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
I would have thought that Europe collapsing into protectionism and recriminations would be a disaster for the British, the French and most of the people of Europe.
Still, Macron isn't a bad choice either, he will be firm but not vindictive.
In every other way, for us and for France, Macron would be better.0 -
Seems odd that punters are going for Le Pen when it seems like a clear cut win for Macron.
Are we expecting a glut on #UKElection2017 polls tonight?
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I suppose Mr McD does at least dress well, and looks like a credible politician up to the point where he actually says something?SimonStClare said:
Hide Corbyn away in a cupboard and bring out Mr Hammer and Sickle. What could go wrong?IanB2 said:Labour to put John McDonnell at centre of fightback after local elections (LOL)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre0 -
That is pretty good for SLAB - barely 1% behind the Tories and 14% adrift of the SNP.Theuniondivvie said:
Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/8608333347878092840 -
The SLAB vote is more concentrated. 3 seats could be on.0
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Find a bookie who will lay the 10/1 horse each way?another_richard said:Le Pen is 10/1, Macron is 1/10 (approximately).
In a two horse race which is the gambler who doesn't know the form going to pick.0 -
Don't be silly, it's the LibDem surge.Sean_F said:
Labour vote share?Pulpstar said:
Tory vote share. What else could it possibly be ?Lord_Liverpool said:https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/860817868648329217
Anyone want to take a guess what Joe's "51%" tease is about with reference to tomorrow's ST poll?0 -
I find that a slightly odd point. People can and do stand for election to parish councils under party political labels, even though once on the council they don't act as political group.IanB2 said:
No, as it happens. Since parish councils don't have political groups, as such, the concept of defection doesn't really apply.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't defections happen quite regularly in parish councils, to the point that they're not really news (same as most things for parish councils to be fair).Freggles said:A question for those active in party politics.
If I were to be part of a minor regional party, or any party for that matter, and become parish councillor under that banner, would this be a barrier to changing party later down the line?
I thought the question was about being told he wouldn't get on the parish council unless he stood for a particular party, and he was thinking that later on he might want to belong to a different party, and would he be able to change. to which the answer is yes. But better not to join a party you don't necessarily agree with in the first place. the country is littered with councillors who only joined the Tories because they thought that was the only way to get elected. And that is NOT a joke, or made-up. There are several of them on my local unitary authority, self-confessed.0 -
Only one leader is in hidingSimonStClare said:
Hide Corbyn away in a cupboard and bring out Mr Hammer and Sickle. What could go wrong?IanB2 said:Labour to put John McDonnell at centre of fightback after local elections (LOL)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre
She is mumbling strong and stable to herself and praying the fraud squad dont smoke her out0 -
6/1 and 1/10. The bookies have to make a living somehow.another_richard said:Le Pen is 10/1, Macron is 1/10 (approximately).
In a two horse race which is the gambler who doesn't know the form going to pick.0 -
Somewhat better than expected. That's good for Unionists, as it means that left wing Unionists have a party which they can vote for.justin124 said:
That is pretty good for SLAB - barely 1% behind the Tories and 14% adrift of the SNP.Theuniondivvie said:
Got this which I assume is in the ball park.surbiton said:What was the final votes distribution in Scotland ? Not projections, actuals.
https://twitter.com/RobertConnell6/status/8608333347878092840 -
90% of the bets by volume, yet Macron remains 1.09. If the market isn't moving the amount of money on each side is roughly equal, so all the big money must be on the other side to balance it.0
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I wonder if this means that after the GE , Corbyn gives up and McDonnell becomes the left candidate.IanB2 said:
I suppose Mr McD does at least dress well, and looks like a credible politician up to the point where he actually says something?SimonStClare said:
Hide Corbyn away in a cupboard and bring out Mr Hammer and Sickle. What could go wrong?IanB2 said:Labour to put John McDonnell at centre of fightback after local elections (LOL)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
It does look rather silly.0 -
Bwin'll give you 1/9 on Macron. Take it.IanB2 said:
6/1 and 1/10. The bookies have to make a living somehow.another_richard said:Le Pen is 10/1, Macron is 1/10 (approximately).
In a two horse race which is the gambler who doesn't know the form going to pick.0 -
Whatever happens with the French government it will not be good news for the UK, never has been and never will be.Paristonda said:
I think a narrow case could be made in relation to Brexit negotiations, that Le Pen, looking to achieve similar goals to us, presents at least additional leverage to TMay - she could basically side up with Merkel ("France has abandoned you but we can still be partners") as a sort of Mainstream front, or she could negotiate in tandem with Le Pen. Le Pen has greatly watered down her Frexit plans so I think even if she were to be elected we would not see the fall of the EU.rcs1000 said:
Why?daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
I would have thought that Europe collapsing into protectionism and recriminations would be a disaster for the British, the French and most of the people of Europe.
Still, Macron isn't a bad choice either, he will be firm but not vindictive.
In every other way, for us and for France, Macron would be better.
"We always have been, we are, and I hope that we always shall be, detested in France." (Wellington)0 -
Italy, some of the Eastern European countries in the 40s, a fair few of the South American dictatorships come to mind as worthy of scrutiny against the criteria.rcs1000 said:
As a matter of interest, is Nazi Germany the only fascist country you recognise?Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_Nazi_GermanyCommanderShepard said:
Mein Kampfrcs1000 said:
Is there a big book of fascist views that I can look up, so I know exactly whether someone is a fascist or not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way is she a Fascist?MikeSmithson said:
In NO circumstances is having a fascist leading our closest neighbour a good thing.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
Fascists don't believe in women running political parties and/or countries.0 -
At no point have I ever found Le Pen's odds to be attractive.IanB2 said:
6/1 and 1/10. The bookies have to make a living somehow.another_richard said:Le Pen is 10/1, Macron is 1/10 (approximately).
In a two horse race which is the gambler who doesn't know the form going to pick.0 -
Hope not I wouldnt vote for him.surbiton said:
I wonder if this means that after the GE , Corbyn gives up and McDonnell becomes the left candidate.IanB2 said:
I suppose Mr McD does at least dress well, and looks like a credible politician up to the point where he actually says something?SimonStClare said:
Hide Corbyn away in a cupboard and bring out Mr Hammer and Sickle. What could go wrong?IanB2 said:Labour to put John McDonnell at centre of fightback after local elections (LOL)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre
Will there be a left candidate?0 -
Well, the 15% bar will mean fewer proposers needed.bigjohnowls said:
Hope not I wouldnt vote for him.surbiton said:
I wonder if this means that after the GE , Corbyn gives up and McDonnell becomes the left candidate.IanB2 said:
I suppose Mr McD does at least dress well, and looks like a credible politician up to the point where he actually says something?SimonStClare said:
Hide Corbyn away in a cupboard and bring out Mr Hammer and Sickle. What could go wrong?IanB2 said:Labour to put John McDonnell at centre of fightback after local elections (LOL)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85716/labour-put-john-mcdonnell-centre
Will there be a left candidate?0 -
I worry Brexit will be very, very bad for as and am still a remainer, but even then I'll acknowledge there are ways it might not be as bad as I fear. One likely outcome if negotiations go badly is a fairly crap deal that keeps us and Europe ticking over is cobbled together, kicking the can down the road and we see a slow stagnation. I hope we'll be ok, I fear we may not be. France leaving and having a borderline fascist government would be an event of a different order of magnitude that would result in guaranteed chaos and economic disaster. There'd be another banking and eurozone crisis. Comparisons to the 1930s have, happily so far been overblown. If Le Pen wins they wouldn't be.daodao said:
I did not imply it was a good thing overall, but made a comment about the British perspective, as Britain has already chosen the path of economic recession and antagonism in Europe by voting Leave last June.MJW said:
Only if you think the collapse of the EU and constant antagonism in Europe would be a good thing. Regardless of where it would leave us in negotiations the economic chaos would send us straight into recession. It would be another 2008.daodao said:Macron would be far worse from a British perspective than the Breton, but I expect him to win.
You're right though. It was always one of the flaws of Brexit that its success relied on others not behaving in the same way - America has done, and is likely as a result to offer us a far worse trade deal than the one that was on the table with the EU. If France does the same why do people think we'd be in a better place?0 -
Ho hoSean_F said:
Labour vote share?Pulpstar said:
Tory vote share. What else could it possibly be ?Lord_Liverpool said:https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/860817868648329217
Anyone want to take a guess what Joe's "51%" tease is about with reference to tomorrow's ST poll?0
