Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it ri

12357

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141
    edited May 2017
    Jezza blanking the media...He doesn't get or care that he looks a twat doing some weird smile and refusing to say anything. Rather than just do a 30s piece to camera with a few prepared lines.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Kinnock is surely, surely doing this as a proxy for some other candidate or candidates. He's just not credible as a successor to Corbyn. Any sensible, genuine candidate will be keeping their head down until June 9th.
    I don't know, maybe he has just got so fed up of waiting for somebody, anybody, to put there head above the parapet, and have a go at Corbyn.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    There certainly used to be an established pattern where some people would vote for their council to spend more and the government to tax less, going back to the days of two-party politics. I haven't analysed more recent data to see if this still applies, but my guess is that Labour will poll worse in a GE than in the locals. Corbyn this time will make this more likely, as local voters at least didn't have to worry about letting Corbyn run their local council.
    It varies across the country. Labour tends to underperform in Birmingham at Local Elections compared with a General Election - same story in Wandsworth.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Bad news for Norman Lamb in North Norfolk is that there are 8,300 UKIP votes for the Tories to plunder.... I think he has gone.

    One of the best MPs in parliament, I reckon. He'd make a superb SoS for Health.

    Would be a sad loss.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,542
    Roger said:

    If these local elections had been held before TM called the election I'm sure at this moment we'd be counting the hours till Corbyn resigned.

    Even now I'm not convinced he'll carry on. The pressure of knowing he's the main cause of this humiliation you'd hope would be weighing heavily.

    I've no idea what the mechanism is but there will be some very angry Labour people who have just lost their jobs or who are about to who will surely do something. Even Momentum can't now say it'll be alright on the night.
    Is there any mechanism when Parliament is dissolved and there aren't any Labour MPs?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Scottish results: can I suggest that pb-ers use the provided ear-defenders.... that klaxon is going to be deafening....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951

    Barnier is the negotiating contact for the EU. Halting all talks with the clock ticking towards hard Brexit is pretty certain to hasten an unplanned hard Brexit.

    Isn't the whole point of Brexit to cease to be involved in the internal aspects of the EU? so what does it matter in choice of internal language used there
    So be it - Junckers is a disgrace and needs to be taken out of the negotiations. Furthermore the idea that Theresa May can only deal with Barnier is for the birds.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Blue_rog said:

    Many many years ago I had a welsh room mate. I was astounded to hear him talking in Welsh on the phone and suddenly saying 'greenhouse heater'!
    Pobol Y Cwm is well worth watching for things like that. I distinctly remember somebody talking about having to live in a "cardboard bocs" (Welsh not having a letter X).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596
    Scott_P said:

    The briefing from labour HQ is that team Corbyn are blaming everyone but themselves
    Momentum is a cult. These results merely confirm to them that they are on the right track.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Bad news for Norman Lamb in North Norfolk is that there are 8,300 UKIP votes for the Tories to plunder.... I think he has gone.

    I would agree. Had he won the leadership he might have clung on but looking at how UKIP in Norfolk look like going, he might be toast
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Scottish results: can I suggest that pb-ers use the provided ear-defenders.... that klaxon is going to be deafening....

    PARDON?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141

    Bad news for Norman Lamb in North Norfolk is that there are 8,300 UKIP votes for the Tories to plunder.... I think he has gone.

    Shame. He is one of the good'uns.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079
    SeanT said:

    For the first time in my life I experienced it in France last week. On a train. A group of average but affluent young mums dropping entire English sentences into their speech. No eyelids batted.

    I think it's partly the internet. It's just so powerful and overwhelming. And so dominated by English - people get used to posting and tweeting on social media in English, and it carries over into real life.
    English is the world language. Simples.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    BBC: Prof Curtice has found yet another hedge to be dragged through....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Whispers from Tories that Scotland looking good for them, with likely gains everywhere, inc previous no-go areas
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Indeed but neither election had been announced at the time people voted - and in 1983 was not expected.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Fenster said:

    One of the best MPs in parliament, I reckon. He'd make a superb SoS for Health.

    Would be a sad loss.
    Norman Lamb was one of a small handful of Top Quality Lib Dem ministers in the last election. and the sort of person that makes me much more incline to support them.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: The local election results suggest that with very little enthusiasm the UK is heading for Tory landslide and Labour existential crisis.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    KLAXON

    @bbclaurak: Tory share in Scottish Borders up 19 percent...
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Shame. He is one of the good'uns.
    Tories are still 15/8 there if you really think that's going to happen.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    @bbclaurak: Tory share in Scottish Borders up 19 percent...

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141
    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully we don't get a shockingly unfunny reboot in a few years...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BraidenHT: First Glasgow rumour of the day. Frank McAveetu pretty much through. Tories & SNP neck & neck in Shettleston. #GCC17
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @stephbrawnNQ: RESULT for Paisley Northeast and Ralston - Neill Graham (Con), Jennifer Adam-McGregor (SNP) and Jim Sharkey (Lab) are elected #LE2017
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Results coming in from Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire and Suffolk
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    Scott_P said:
    Slough's a big place. And when I'm done with Slough there's Aldershot, Bracknell, Reading, Yateley. Didcot, Taplow.... WINNERSHHHHH!
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    Scott_P said:
    The new Gordon Brown .....
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    So be it - Junckers is a disgrace and needs to be taken out of the negotiations. Furthermore the idea that Theresa May can only deal with Barnier is for the birds.
    Mrs May can only deal with whoever the EU says she can deal with. They *do* get to pick their team just as we get to choose ours.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    timmo said:

    Tories are still 15/8 there if you really think that's going to happen.
    SNP 48 or fewer at 5/6 looks like a safer bet
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh, please, please, please...

    BethRigby: Interesting: Abbott mentions West Mids in Mayor race patter but briefing notes don't. Lab source says too early to say. Did she "misspeak?" twitter.com/jessicaelgot/s…
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    Scott_P said:

    KLAXON

    @bbclaurak: Tory share in Scottish Borders up 19 percent...

    nunu said:

    @bbclaurak: Tory share in Scottish Borders up 19 percent...

    Is there a technical term for a klaxon echo chamber?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Scott_P said:

    @BraidenHT: First Glasgow rumour of the day. Frank McAveetu pretty much through. Tories & SNP neck & neck in Shettleston. #GCC17

    Lol - Blue Glasgie.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @abowie4WAK: Only 1 SNP elected @Aberdeenshire ward Troup as @ScotTories romp home with 1555 votes- over 50% of the vote. Mark Findlater wins hands down.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Scott_P said:

    @BraidenHT: First Glasgow rumour of the day. Frank McAveetu pretty much through. Tories & SNP neck & neck in Shettleston. #GCC17

    Blimey.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    First "surge" KLAXON

    @murdo_fraser: Surge in @ScotTories vote in Carse of Gowrie. Congrats to @angusforbesphot our new councillor. Thanks to Tory transfers, Lab take SNP seat
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    @bbclaurak: Tory share in Scottish Borders up 19 percent...

    John Curtice reporting early signs of a Tory revival in Scotland - his style is more like a genteel doorbell than a klaxon, though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    No shit...

    @DPJHodges: Tory source texts me: "Watch Scotland. Massive shift to us".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    The surge is real? :o
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    SeanT said:

    Scots really don't want another indyref, not right now.

    Thank you for being so generous with your wisdom and speaking on our behalf.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166
    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 43s43 seconds ago
    More
    Tory source texts me: "Watch Scotland. Massive shift to us".
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Don't forget it's a rigged system and the Zionist run media are biased against them (including the guardian and the mirror).
    Absolutely! When the revolution comes, the media will be the first against the wall.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,542

    Pobol Y Cwm is well worth watching for things like that. I distinctly remember somebody talking about having to live in a "cardboard bocs" (Welsh not having a letter X).
    Swearing too. I remember hearing a Welsh conversation in a shop in Llandeilo with the words "f***ing parking charges" inserted in the middle. But English is well known to be the best language to swear in.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951

    Mrs May can only deal with whoever the EU says she can deal with. They *do* get to pick their team just as we get to choose ours.
    Not at all - she will deal with whoever she wants to
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,377

    It must be decades since the Conservatives got a councillor in Paisley.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Blimey.
    it really is the old nationalist/unionist battle of old........
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141
    TudorRose said:

    John Curtice reporting early signs of a Tory revival in Scotland - his style is more like a genteel doorbell than a klaxon, though.
    The Tories could win 649 at the GE and curtice would be pointing to the one they didn't win as a sign that it was only an ok night for the Tories.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    I think that after June it is going to be very difficult to characterise the Tories as an English party. Scottish and Welsh representation in the governing party will hopefully make the union more stable over time.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I am SHOCKED...

    @bbclaurak: Labour source say Tories on course for huge increase in vote share in Scotland - whispers of lots of anti-SNP tactical voting
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,532

    Not at all - she will deal with whoever she wants to
    Like Trump who allegedly asked Merkel 10 times for a trade deal with Germany before accepting that he could only deal with the European Commission?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Is there a technical term for a klaxon echo chamber?
    TORY, TORy, TOry,Tory,tory,tory,tory,..........
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @abowie4WAK: The @ScotTories have won Fraserburgh. 1229 votes. Double the nearest challenger. #council17
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Absolutely! When the revolution comes, the media will be the first against the wall.
    And here I was getting ready to string up Remainers and lawyers...
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    SeanT said:

    Scots really don't want another indyref, not right now.

    Yes - the SNP have boosted the Tories a lot, and underneath they will be proud of it. How crazy will the SNP cult now go?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @EddieBarnes23: In Mid Lothian and Clackmannanshire, @ScotTories currently have no councillors - now looks like representation in every ward #LE2017
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    SeanT said:

    Scots really don't want another indyref, not right now.

    Sean, did you ever let slip your juicy gossip about Macron? It's eating me up but I can't afford the £1 million you were asking for :lol:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    English is well known to be the best language to swear in.

    When I was in the US, my accent got considerably more Scottish when swearing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951

    Like Trump who allegedly asked Merkel 10 times for a trade deal with Germany before accepting that he could only deal with the European Commission?
    She will deal with whoever she wants to
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    At the end of the day, nothing lasts forever. I believe we will get a Whig party back to counter the Tories made of mainstream Labour & Liberal Democrat MP's, with the rump Judean Peoples Popular Front keeping the assets of all those Labour Working mens clubs that will increasingly look like Pripyat save the odd Momentum friends of Palestine meeting and an invite to the South Armagh active service unit to celebrate their struggle. But by the time it has happened the dust will have settled, the UK will have signed its Free Trade agreements with Korea, Australia et all. And even if it survives the EU will look like its founders envisaged - a United States of Europe proudly waving its Star Spangled Sphincter and Bizantine Bureaucracy in the face of a World that has moved on from a Feather bedded populace.

    Well said, and very well written :+1:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141
    Scorrio the football review show on S4C always made me chuckle on the occasions I saw it on family holidays. More English than welsh spoken despite it supposed to be a welsh language show.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Guardian:

    On the BBC Prof John Curtice says early figures from the Scottish Borders council shows the Conservative vote up 19 points on 2012, when Scottish council elections were last held. That is consistent with what the opinion polls are saying about the Conservatives’s standing in Scotland, he says.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited May 2017
    Are the Tories going to win an absolute majority of English council seats elected yesterday? It looks a possibility from @RobD's awesome spreadsheet?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    Curtice suggesting Scot Tory +19%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951
    Scott_P said:

    @abowie4WAK: The @ScotTories have won Fraserburgh. 1229 votes. Double the nearest challenger. #council17

    I have been predicting this for a long time.

    Where is Malc when you want him
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Are the Tories going to win an absolute majority of English council seats elected yesterday? It looks a possibility from @RobD's awesome spreadsheet?

    Would only require 80 gains, so I think they have already done it!
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Scott_P said:

    @krishgm: The local election results suggest that with very little enthusiasm the UK is heading for Tory landslide and Labour existential crisis.

    Maybe my old friend Krish could point us to the data that shows 'very little enthusiasm'. I don't remember him making this point in 1997.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Scott_P said:

    @EddieBarnes23: In Mid Lothian and Clackmannanshire, @ScotTories currently have no councillors - now looks like representation in every ward #LE2017

    Bloody hell!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442

    Is there a technical term for a klaxon echo chamber?
    Come on, don't deny us our fun, we've been waiting decades for this.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Scott_P said:

    @EddieBarnes23: In Mid Lothian and Clackmannanshire, @ScotTories currently have no councillors - now looks like representation in every ward #LE2017

    Is that Klaxonmannashire?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    TudorRose said:

    Is that Klaxonmannashire?
    We have a winner! :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Edinburgh_CC: Ward 1 - Almond result: 4 candidates elected
    Kevin Lang (Lib Dem)
    Louise Young (Lib Dem)
    Graham Hutchison (Con)
    Norrie Work (SNP)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Maybe my old friend Krish could point us to the data that shows 'very little enthusiasm'. I don't remember him making this point in 1997.
    Low turnout? But that could be because we have a GE in a few weeks.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    News for Clive Lewis watchers, Bowthorpe ward Labour hold with vote only down 1%. One of the areas the Tories would need to take strongly to dislodge him I think. Labour 50, Tory 30 and also rans
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Sad to report that Labour have held Bolsover.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Paging Scrapheap.

    Spurs are playing today and so are the England cricket team.

    You know what that means!
  • Best of luck Pulpy!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    TudorRose said:

    Is that Klaxonmannashire?
    Oh, that's good!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951
    Really funny - the BBC have changed their panel but Thornberry is still there. Mind you they only have Abbott and McDonnell as subs. Apart from Stephen Kinnock I have not seen another labour MP
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Anyone seen malcolmg?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    She will deal with whoever she wants to
    We do not get to choose their representatives any more than they get to choose ours.

    The EU27 have chosen Barnier to represent them, and for no direct talks with individual countries. The EU27 have signed up to this unanimously. That is how a union works.
  • I would agree. Had he won the leadership he might have clung on but looking at how UKIP in Norfolk look like going, he might be toast
    I don't think North Norfolk wards have started declaring yet.

    I agree that the UKIP collapse creates a problem for Lamb, but Tories have only just selected, and have gone for Michael Fallon's SPAD, which hardly seems an ideal candidate for the constituency. Tight, but I'd not write the obituary just yet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    @mcslaven Tories winning seats in Cowdenbeath, which until recently had a councillor who was Britain's last elected communist. That's, uh, tectonic
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Surge KLAXON

    @andydphilip: Seems Tories enjoying surge in Scotland on these early results. Neck and neck with SNP in Shettleston, SNP leader out in Fife. All change
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,128
    notme said:

    No differential turnout isn't a Tory thing, it's usually against whoever is in government. Tories in , it helps labour, labour in helps conservatives. What's extraordinary is in a low turnout seven years into a Tory government and we are not seeing obliteration in local elections.
    There are lots of things going on.

    Firstly, we're seven years into a Tory government, but five of those were a coalition. This has somewhat 'freshened' up the government.

    Secondly, we've a new PM. Thatcher left after ten or eleven years, Blair after nine. May's leadership has also freshened up the Conservative party *before* they got into the usual policy vacuum that a party suffers in its second or third term. With the perceived toffs gone, the government looks different.

    Thirdly, Brexit. This has revitalised the political scene as well, and has anecdotally (according to me!) bought non-voters out where traditional Labour voters might be staying at home.

    Fourthly, Corbyn. He is the antithesis of electoral gold-dust. Electoral cholera, perhaps? People are voting Labour in spite of his leadership, not because of it.

    Fifthly: UKIP are dying, and many (most?) of their voters appear to be going to the Conservatives, regardless of which party they supported before UKIP.

    These are really unusual elections, and I doubt we'll ever see such a conglomeration of circumstances favouring the governing party again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141
    I presume jezza will be spending the day signing jam jars and other crucial tasks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BraidenHT: Ok folks. Thats now looking odds-on that a Tory has been elected to Glasgow Shettleston. SHETTLESTON! #GCC17
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,096
    Sean_F said:


    It must be decades since the Conservatives got a councillor in Paisley.

    Although this is PR so it's not necessarily comparable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    Diane Abbot on the Beeb!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010

    So be it - Junckers is a disgrace and needs to be taken out of the negotiations. Furthermore the idea that Theresa May can only deal with Barnier is for the birds.

    Juncker is not involved in the negotiations.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    murali_s said:

    English is the world language. Simples.
    Variations on a theme of English perhaps. Singlish anyone?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Perth & Kinross:
    @C_MMackay
    First result of the day is Carse of Gowrie.
    Won by angus forbes, conservative.
    Also elected are Beth Pover, SNP and Alasdair Bailey, Lab.

    That result means the first major casualty is the SNP's Douglas Pover, who loses his place on the council.
This discussion has been closed.