Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
Am I right in thinking the Conservatives are picking up seats from everyone but votes almost entirely from UKIP, with a smallish gain from Labour, compared with the previous election?
If so, Corbyn isn't THE problem for Labour, although he clearly doesn't improve their chances.
Except that underneath I expect Labour is getting some returning votes from UKIP which are being cancelled out by the people switching away from Labour. It isn't credible that every single UKIP voter is switching to the Tories, not least because in the lot of places uKiP attracted a lot of NOTA and anyone-but-Tory votes in the first place.
Plenty of people warned idiots like her that Corbyn was bad news. And they were roundly poo-poohed. So tough shit for morons like her who waste newsprint parading their empty-headed self-righteousness and presumed - and unjustified - self-claimed moral superiority over the rest of us.
Perhaps if people like her had actually bothered to look into what Corbyn said and believed over the years and compared it to the values she claims to believe in, Labour might not now be in such a mess. I have very little sympathy for self-indulgent nitwits like her.
For those who - like SO - would like a decent social democratic/left of centre party to vote for, rather more so. Rather a lot in fact. We all lose out by not having a viable opposition party.
I hope the revenge - when it comes - on the Corbynites and their fellow travellers is so savage that they slink off into the darkest recesses where far left groupuscules are usually found, never to be heard of again.
I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.
Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.
West Ham have no one fit in their front line (waiting on Carroll) - story of the season.
That's good news.
Don't get me wrong Spurs are far better all over the pitch but I'm scarred by previous experiences.
I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.
Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.
West Ham have no one fit in their front line (waiting on Carroll) - story of the season.
That's good news.
Don't get me wrong Spurs are far better all over the pitch but I'm scarred by previous experiences.
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
Am I right in thinking the Conservatives are picking up seats from everyone but votes almost entirely from UKIP, with a smallish gain from Labour, compared with the previous election?
If so, Corbyn isn't THE problem for Labour, although he clearly doesn't improve their chances.
Except that underneath I expect Labour is getting some returning votes from UKIP which are being cancelled out by the people switching away from Labour. It isn't credible that every single UKIP voter is switching to the Tories, not least because in the lot of places uKiP attracted a lot of NOTA and anyone-but-Tory votes in the first place.
Kippers were vehemently anti Cameron, they like May, think Corbyn is a nutter.
The vast majority of kippers will now happily vote Conservative as I said last week and as results are showing. Its the main reason why she'll win an enormous majority.
It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.
LOL
But Tories, the Tories, Westminster, the Tories, THE TORIES is how you run a country...
You've got your finger on the fluttering pulse of the SConosphere, doncha? Surely you must have some examples of vibrant policies that SCon led councils would be enacting? Perhaps they'd follow the courageous example of S.Ayrshire council over the named child scheme for example?
Panic stations as suddenly the day job is oh so important for our Nat day dreamers.
FWIW most of us NATs have always cared about the day job !!
Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
What's he done now
He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
Also complete bollocks, of course. The overwhelming dominance of English as a second language - and as a first global language in social media, business, travel, science, the Net - means it HAS to be the EU's working language. Indeed the departure of the UK might make that easier for the French to bear, emotionally.
My experience is that the French are pretty relaxed about speaking English. Macron, for example, has no problem using it. Le Pen is more guarded, but I think she speaks fluent English as well. It is the de facto language of Europe now and this is not going to change. Juncker knows that. But he also seems to enjoy winding-up people in the UK - who, let's face it, are looking for reasons to be wound up.
another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
All rounders like the Saffers at St Johns in 2005:
CON 287 +172 LAB 75 -319 LD 82 +11 SNP 553 +129 GRN 12 -2
Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
6%
Jeezo
It isn't credible.
I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
No, the objections are more fundamental than that.
But, but, but Tessy has spoken!
In any case any objections you might have aren't really in the running.
No, here's the fundamental objection:
(1) The Scottish Parliament does not have the legal power to call a referendum (2) The UK Parliament will only grant a referendum pursuant to an agreement between the UK and Scottish governments (3) To get an agreement, the Scottish government will have to break the existing agreement (4) Yeah, good luck with that.
Sky talking heads are still obsessed with the narrative that people are only remainers / leavers and confused why they don't seem to be voting along those lines.
I would not have thought - given that 30% of results have now been declared - that Labour's losses in England will match the 315 predicted by Professor Fisher.
Mr. Rex, I listened to the audio commentary (Chinese, with subtitles) of House of Flying Daggers, with the director and female lead (Zhang Ziyi, I think). She dipped occasionally into English, the word that stood out for me was 'gentlemen'. It was a bit like Welsh radio, when a wall of incomprehensible words suddenly has a familiar one, before returning to unfamiliar sounds.
"In the 1886 general election, there was a tie in Ashton-under-Lyne, with the Liberal and Conservative candidates each receiving 3,049 votes. The (Acting) Returning Officer gave his casting vote to the Conservative, John Addison."
"In the 1886 general election, there was a tie in Ashton-under-Lyne, with the Liberal and Conservative candidates each receiving 3,049 votes. The (Acting) Returning Officer gave his casting vote to the Conservative, John Addison."
another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.
God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
I once had a match where they actually managed to get 17 overs in the last hour. But everyone shook hands on a draw after 15 overs, so I started doing my end of match tallying - and then I looked up to see another over and a half had been bowled. Fortunately, the last two overs consisted of 12 blocks.
Mr. Rex, I listened to the audio commentary (Chinese, with subtitles) of House of Flying Daggers, with the director and female lead (Zhang Ziyi, I think). She dipped occasionally into English, the word that stood out for me was 'gentlemen'. It was a bit like Welsh radio, when a wall of incomprehensible words suddenly has a familiar one, before returning to unfamiliar sounds.
Many many years ago I had a welsh room mate. I was astounded to hear him talking in Welsh on the phone and suddenly saying 'greenhouse heater'!
Mr. Rex, I listened to the audio commentary (Chinese, with subtitles) of House of Flying Daggers, with the director and female lead (Zhang Ziyi, I think). She dipped occasionally into English, the word that stood out for me was 'gentlemen'. It was a bit like Welsh radio, when a wall of incomprehensible words suddenly has a familiar one, before returning to unfamiliar sounds.
Many many years ago I had a welsh room mate. I was astounded to hear him talking in Welsh on the phone and suddenly saying 'greenhouse heater'!
A friend of mine was in a pub in north Wales when the football was on. He asked one of the regulars why, if they all spoke Welsh, they were swearing at the referee in English. The response delivered with a pitying look was "Because if we swore at him in Welsh he wouldn't bloody understand us, would he?"
another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.
God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
the good thing about my scenario though is its the other team scoring that chaos
I would not have thought - given that 30% of results have now been declared - that Labour's losses in England will match the 315 predicted by Professor Fisher.
Will be tricky, unless they do worse in the places where they have more seats (if that makes sense...)
FWIW when the county elections were held on the same day as the GE in 2005. The votes of county wards when summed pretty much equalled the parliamentary constituency.
Unless we have evidence for differential turnout this time, what we see today might be a good guide to next month.
What's the message he is selling...Vote labour and send the country into chaos like when I was in government in Greece?
I am seriously struggling to understand what he thinks he is doing, he must be board, having an ex cabinet minister form one nation, come and campaign in local elections in another!.
But I would bet John McDonald would have thin nation, so brock it would be begging for money form the IMF in half the time it took he took.
Is Corbyn proposing to make abolishing the monarchy Labour Party policy? NickP was agreeing the a guardian article that suggested he should go big and radical, all out, and that would certainly be it.
That would be great, but I doubt it will happen. If Corbyn had a stronger backbone he would say
• leave NATO • get rid of nuclear weapons • abolish the monarchy • smash the private schools by one means or another
It'd be interesting to see just how low the poll ratings go.
NATO membership, nuclear weapons, the monarchy, private schools - none of these would remain if their reality and significance were laid bare and debated.
Want to know which of them is the key? The last one: the private schools. I haven't met a single person with a deep understanding of Britain who doesn't realise that.
Our private schools are the best schools in the world and provide scholarships and bursaries too, politics of envy will not save Labour
Envy? You must be joking! But I realise you aren't. There's a total disconnect here.
No there isn't, that is why the Tories will also allow grammar schools to expand too
That's not what I meant by "disconnect". Grammar schools have nothing to do with the issue.
The disconnect is between those such as myself and David Cornwell (aka John Le Carré) on one side, and those such as yourself and Mortimer, who defend the existence of private schools, on the other. There is nothing there to "envy", and it speaks volumes about the mindset to assert that "all right minded people" defend their existence.
There is also an amazing disconnect with reality and the usual customs of rational thought when you assert that British private schools are "the best schools in the world". Clearly there is a loyalty thing going on there.
In Cornwell's words
"It is difficult to imagine the reform of British society without the abolition of the public schools, starting with Eton... I am afraid, when I'm dictator of England, I shall do it."
I'm on him at 20s (Oct 2015), 22s (March 2016), and 25s (June 2016). And now 33s (May 2017) - thanks for the heads up.
Almost a cast iron certainty, therefore, that he will pull out and become head of the World Bank, or somesuch.
Kinnock is surely, surely doing this as a proxy for some other candidate or candidates. He's just not credible as a successor to Corbyn. Any sensible, genuine candidate will be keeping their head down until June 9th.
What's the message he is selling...Vote labour and send the country into chaos like when I was in government in Greece?
I am seriously struggling to understand what he thinks he is doing, he must be board, having an ex cabinet minister form one nation, come and campaign in local elections in another!.
But I would bet John McDonald would have thin nation, so brock it would be begging for money form the IMF in half the time it took he took.
I find it bizarre that certain sections of the media hold him up on some pedastool. A bloke elected as part of a party with a total bonkers manifesto that totally failed and was sacked after a few months.
I'm on him at 20s (Oct 2015), 22s (March 2016), and 25s (June 2016). And now 33s (May 2017) - thanks for the heads up.
Almost a cast iron certainty, therefore, that he will pull out and become head of the World Bank, or somesuch.
Kinnock is surely, surely doing this as a proxy for some other candidate or candidates. He's just not credible as a successor to Corbyn. Any sensible, genuine candidate will be keeping their head down until June 9th.
According to the results sheet it wasn't a dead heat just a win by one vote. I guess they were offered a straw draw instead of a (or another?) recount. Winchester 1997 was a win by 2 votes after several recounts (later a legal challenge resulted in a by-election).
Mr. Rex, I listened to the audio commentary (Chinese, with subtitles) of House of Flying Daggers, with the director and female lead (Zhang Ziyi, I think). She dipped occasionally into English, the word that stood out for me was 'gentlemen'. It was a bit like Welsh radio, when a wall of incomprehensible words suddenly has a familiar one, before returning to unfamiliar sounds.
Many many years ago I had a welsh room mate. I was astounded to hear him talking in Welsh on the phone and suddenly saying 'greenhouse heater'!
A friend of mine was in a pub in north Wales when the football was on. He asked one of the regulars why, if they all spoke Welsh, they were swearing at the referee in English. The response delivered with a pitying look was "Because if we swore at him in Welsh he wouldn't bloody understand us, would he?"
Last week in a car in Sweden the driver was having a conversation over the phone.
..... context ...... is one bit I remember as English words crept into the conversation...
FWIW when the county elections were held on the same day as the GE in 2005. The votes of county wards when summed pretty much equalled the parliamentary constituency.
Unless we have evidence for differential turnout this time, what we see today might be a good guide to next month.
Of course there is differential turnout. Tories always vote, in whatever election. There was a very low turnout yesterday. Do you think there is "evidence" that the proportion of those who would vote Tory who stayed at home and the corresponding proportion of those who would vote Labour were about equal?
Plenty of people warned idiots like her that Corbyn was bad news. And they were roundly poo-poohed. So tough shit for morons like her who waste newsprint parading their empty-headed self-righteousness and presumed - and unjustified - self-claimed moral superiority over the rest of us.
Perhaps if people like her had actually bothered to look into what Corbyn said and believed over the years and compared it to the values she claims to believe in, Labour might not now be in such a mess. I have very little sympathy for self-indulgent nitwits like her.
For those who - like SO - would like a decent social democratic/left of centre party to vote for, rather more so. Rather a lot in fact. We all lose out by not having a viable opposition party.
I hope the revenge - when it comes - on the Corbynites and their fellow travellers is so savage that they slink off into the darkest recesses where far left groupuscules are usually found, never to be heard of again.
If these local elections had been held before TM called the election I'm sure at this moment we'd be counting the hours till Corbyn resigned.
Even now I'm not convinced he'll carry on. The pressure of knowing he's the main cause of this humiliation you'd hope would be weighing heavily.
I've no idea what the mechanism is but there will be some very angry Labour people who have just lost their jobs or who are about to who will surely do something. Even Momentum can't now say it'll be alright on the night.
Just catching up with the results. Looks like a horrible result for Labour and a poor result for the Lib Dems, confirms their 10-12% national poll rating as well IMO. Not what they want in the run up to the election.
Kippers were vehemently anti Cameron, they like May, think Corbyn is a nutter.
The vast majority of kippers will now happily vote Conservative as I said last week and as results are showing. Its the main reason why she'll win an enormous majority.
Yeah there can't be many people switching from Farage to Corbyn. It would be like switching from Liverpool to Everton, theoretically possible but not likely.
The biggest challenge the Tories will have is that there are still four weeks to go, and today's headlines are clearly signalling already that Labour cannot win. At the very least, their manifesto will come under intense scrutiny.
Mr. Rex, I listened to the audio commentary (Chinese, with subtitles) of House of Flying Daggers, with the director and female lead (Zhang Ziyi, I think). She dipped occasionally into English, the word that stood out for me was 'gentlemen'. It was a bit like Welsh radio, when a wall of incomprehensible words suddenly has a familiar one, before returning to unfamiliar sounds.
Many many years ago I had a welsh room mate. I was astounded to hear him talking in Welsh on the phone and suddenly saying 'greenhouse heater'!
A friend of mine was in a pub in north Wales when the football was on. He asked one of the regulars why, if they all spoke Welsh, they were swearing at the referee in English. The response delivered with a pitying look was "Because if we swore at him in Welsh he wouldn't bloody understand us, would he?"
Last week in a car in Sweden the driver was having a conversation over the phone.
..... context ...... is one bit I remember as English words crept into the conversation...
Young people in many countries now speak an englished version of their own language. Where English words, sentences and idioms are slipped in to the dialogue. Sometimes they simply switch to English.
It's fascinating to overhear. I've experienced it round the world. Especially with rich people
You see it on European tv programmes as well and the ads....That always gets me that the ads so often mix native language with some slogans or tag line in English.
@bbclaurak: Hearing fears at Labour HQ about blame game that's started already from the leadership
Obviously the Party is not far enough to the left to attract voters. Time to purge those pesky moderates? (Or time for those pesky moderates to purge themselves?)
Numbers for Wansbeck parliamentary constituency. (More difficult as 2 wards shared with Berwick), and less reliable as much bigger Ind. vote than Blyth Valley. Labour by c. 2500 votes.
FWIW when the county elections were held on the same day as the GE in 2005. The votes of county wards when summed pretty much equalled the parliamentary constituency.
Unless we have evidence for differential turnout this time, what we see today might be a good guide to next month.
Of course there is differential turnout. Tories always vote, in whatever election. There was a very low turnout yesterday. Do you think there is "evidence" that the proportion of those who would vote Tory who stayed at home and the corresponding proportion of those who would vote Labour were about equal?
No differential turnout isn't a Tory thing, it's usually against whoever is in government. Tories in , it helps labour, labour in helps conservatives. What's extraordinary is in a low turnout seven years into a Tory government and we are not seeing obliteration in local elections.
@bbclaurak: Hearing fears at Labour HQ about blame game that's started already from the leadership
Obviously the Party is not far enough to the left to attract voters. Time to purge those pesky moderates? (Or time for those pesky moderates to purge themselves?)
Don't forget it's a rigged system and the Zionist run media are biased against them (including the guardian and the mirror).
Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
What's he done now
He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
I can see the time coming when Theresa May halts all talks until he is removed from the process
Barnier is the negotiating contact for the EU. Halting all talks with the clock ticking towards hard Brexit is pretty certain to hasten an unplanned hard Brexit.
Isn't the whole point of Brexit to cease to be involved in the internal aspects of the EU? so what does it matter in choice of internal language used there
Mr. Rex, I listened to the audio commentary (Chinese, with subtitles) of House of Flying Daggers, with the director and female lead (Zhang Ziyi, I think). She dipped occasionally into English, the word that stood out for me was 'gentlemen'. It was a bit like Welsh radio, when a wall of incomprehensible words suddenly has a familiar one, before returning to unfamiliar sounds.
Many many years ago I had a welsh room mate. I was astounded to hear him talking in Welsh on the phone and suddenly saying 'greenhouse heater'!
A friend of mine was in a pub in north Wales when the football was on. He asked one of the regulars why, if they all spoke Welsh, they were swearing at the referee in English. The response delivered with a pitying look was "Because if we swore at him in Welsh he wouldn't bloody understand us, would he?"
Last week in a car in Sweden the driver was having a conversation over the phone.
..... context ...... is one bit I remember as English words crept into the conversation...
Young people in many countries now speak an englished version of their own language. Where English words, sentences and idioms are slipped in to the dialogue. Sometimes they simply switch to English.
It's fascinating to overhear. I've experienced it round the world. Especially with rich people
Linguists call this "code switching". Spoken Welsh is well-known for it, to the exrent that there is quite a difference between everyday spoken Welsh and written or "literary" Welsh. This is not an uncommon feature in languages.
I'm on him at 20s (Oct 2015), 22s (March 2016), and 25s (June 2016). And now 33s (May 2017) - thanks for the heads up.
Almost a cast iron certainty, therefore, that he will pull out and become head of the World Bank, or somesuch.
Kinnock is surely, surely doing this as a proxy for some other candidate or candidates. He's just not credible as a successor to Corbyn. Any sensible, genuine candidate will be keeping their head down until June 9th.
Unless the moderates split off. After June 9th they have 5 years to get everything in place.
Why challenge Corbyn when you van leave him to rot in a party of 30 MPs?
I actually think this is a worse day for try Lib Dems than it is for Labour. Everyone expected Labour to get hammered, but the Lib Dems have been banging on about how their share has been rising in local by elections and how the national poll rating doesn't reflect the real position of the party in the nation. Clearly the Lib Dems are kidding themselves. In the run up to the GE this is going to completely derail their campaign.
Comments
At full strength, West Ham would win.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/860417506057605120
The vast majority of kippers will now happily vote Conservative as I said last week and as results are showing. Its the main reason why she'll win an enormous majority.
http://www.northumberland.gov.uk/NorthumberlandCountyCouncil/media/Councillors-and-Democracy/County Council Election Results 2017/South-Blyth-Divison.pdf
BBC suggesting Derbys may not be so bad for Labour as elsewhere
@BethRigby: Abbott fascinating there on @SkyNews. She sees confident that Labour would take West Mids. Suggested it three times. #LocalElections2017
@MrHarryCole: Tory Minister suspects the party has "smashed it" in West Midlands Mayoral.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/current/match/208321.html
Mr. Rex, I listened to the audio commentary (Chinese, with subtitles) of House of Flying Daggers, with the director and female lead (Zhang Ziyi, I think). She dipped occasionally into English, the word that stood out for me was 'gentlemen'. It was a bit like Welsh radio, when a wall of incomprehensible words suddenly has a familiar one, before returning to unfamiliar sounds.
"In the 1886 general election, there was a tie in Ashton-under-Lyne, with the Liberal and Conservative candidates each receiving 3,049 votes. The (Acting) Returning Officer gave his casting vote to the Conservative, John Addison."
Almost a cast iron certainty, therefore, that he will pull out and become head of the World Bank, or somesuch.
Unless we have evidence for differential turnout this time, what we see today might be a good guide to next month.
already tories have gained 2 seats in scotland!
But I would bet John McDonald would have thin nation, so brock it would be begging for money form the IMF in half the time it took he took.
The disconnect is between those such as myself and David Cornwell (aka John Le Carré) on one side, and those such as yourself and Mortimer, who defend the existence of private schools, on the other. There is nothing there to "envy", and it speaks volumes about the mindset to assert that "all right minded people" defend their existence.
There is also an amazing disconnect with reality and the usual customs of rational thought when you assert that British private schools are "the best schools in the world". Clearly there is a loyalty thing going on there.
In Cornwell's words
"It is difficult to imagine the reform of British society without the abolition of the public schools, starting with Eton... I am afraid, when I'm dictator of England, I shall do it."
@abowie4WAK: First result from @Aberdeenshire...Banff and District. Conservative WIN. Mike Roy 1509 votes, SNP 1049. #council17
their O/U is now down to 17.5.
Winchester 1997 was a win by 2 votes after several recounts (later a legal challenge resulted in a by-election).
..... context ...... is one bit I remember as English words crept into the conversation...
Even now I'm not convinced he'll carry on. The pressure of knowing he's the main cause of this humiliation you'd hope would be weighing heavily.
I've no idea what the mechanism is but there will be some very angry Labour people who have just lost their jobs or who are about to who will surely do something. Even Momentum can't now say it'll be alright on the night.
Labour by c. 2500 votes.
https://t.co/4s7MXY83nG
Isn't the whole point of Brexit to cease to be involved in the internal aspects of the EU? so what does it matter in choice of internal language used there
@dave4765: Conservative come first in Banff and buchan . What will mr salmond and mr Robertson think of that . First also in Dunfermline north wow!
1 Earl (Tory)
2 McDonald (Tory)
3 Tweed (SNP)
SNP loses Fergus Wood.
2/2
Why challenge Corbyn when you van leave him to rot in a party of 30 MPs?