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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it ri

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    Seen elsewhere, one East Ayrshire ward was won by The Rubbish Party. Labour came fourth on first preferences, beaten by the SNP, the Conservatives, and The Rubbish Party.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035

    MaxPB said:

    Nuttall has thrown in the towel for UKIP having a purpose any more.....

    Well that's not surprising, UKIP are a party that has won the biggest and most important vote that this country has held in a generation. They've won.
    Well the cause they supported won, be honest if Gove and Boris had been on the other side things would have been different.
    Cameron's decision to have a referendum vies with Labour MPs' decision to nominate Corbyn as the worst of the decade.
    Disagree. The referendum was needed; I'd be calling for one for years. The EU had substantially changed, and the people needed a say on it.

    I voted remain and lost. Despite that, the referendum was the right thing. Why? If we hadn't had one, then the UK in five or ten years would be a much more split and divisive place than it is now.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    Nigelb said:

    notme said:

    Cyan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FWIW when the county elections were held on the same day as the GE in 2005. The votes of county wards when summed pretty much equalled the parliamentary constituency.

    Unless we have evidence for differential turnout this time, what we see today might be a good guide to next month.

    Of course there is differential turnout. Tories always vote, in whatever election. There was a very low turnout yesterday. Do you think there is "evidence" that the proportion of those who would vote Tory who stayed at home and the corresponding proportion of those who would vote Labour were about equal?

    No differential turnout isn't a Tory thing, it's usually against whoever is in government. Tories in , it helps labour, labour in helps conservatives. What's extraordinary is in a low turnout seven years into a Tory government and we are not seeing obliteration in local elections.
    There are lots of things going on.

    Firstly, we're seven years into a Tory government, but five of those were a coalition. This has somewhat 'freshened' up the government.

    Secondly, we've a new PM. Thatcher left after ten or eleven years, Blair after nine. May's leadership has also freshened up the Conservative party *before* they got into the usual policy vacuum that a party suffers in its second or third term. With the perceived toffs gone, the government looks different.

    Thirdly, Brexit. This has revitalised the political scene as well, and has anecdotally (according to me!) bought non-voters out where traditional Labour voters might be staying at home.

    Fourthly, Corbyn. He is the antithesis of electoral gold-dust. Electoral cholera, perhaps? People are voting Labour in spite of his leadership, not because of it.

    Fifthly: UKIP are dying, and many (most?) of their voters appear to be going to the Conservatives, regardless of which party they supported before UKIP.

    These are really unusual elections, and I doubt we'll ever see such a conglomeration of circumstances favouring the governing party again.
    It bears certain echoes of the 1924 election.
    I was particularly struck by this quote,
    '..It makes my blood boil to read of the way which Mr. Zinoviev is speaking of the Prime Minister today. Though one time there went up a cry, "Hands off Russia", I think it's time somebody said to Russia, "Hands off England"...'
    which bears a certain resemblance to the recent utterances of Mrs. May.

    Could Labour go the way of the old Liberal party ?
    Thanks. I freely admit the 1924 GE was before my time, and that I know little about it. I'll have a read whilst I wait for the plumber to arrive.

    (It's been that sort of morning)
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721

    MaxPB said:

    Nuttall has thrown in the towel for UKIP having a purpose any more.....

    Well that's not surprising, UKIP are a party that has won the biggest and most important vote that this country has held in a generation. They've won.
    Well the cause they supported won, be honest if Gove and Boris had been on the other side things would have been different.
    Cameron's decision to have a referendum vies with Labour MPs' decision to nominate Corbyn as the worst of the decade.
    Disagree. The referendum was needed; I'd be calling for one for years. The EU had substantially changed, and the people needed a say on it.

    I voted remain and lost. Despite that, the referendum was the right thing. Why? If we hadn't had one, then the UK in five or ten years would be a much more split and divisive place than it is now.
    It's hard to think of a worse split than 50/50 plus or minus a couple of percent.
    You must admit that Cameron must view it as a misjudgement at the very least.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035

    MaxPB said:

    Nuttall has thrown in the towel for UKIP having a purpose any more.....

    Well that's not surprising, UKIP are a party that has won the biggest and most important vote that this country has held in a generation. They've won.
    Well the cause they supported won, be honest if Gove and Boris had been on the other side things would have been different.
    Cameron's decision to have a referendum vies with Labour MPs' decision to nominate Corbyn as the worst of the decade.
    Disagree. The referendum was needed; I'd be calling for one for years. The EU had substantially changed, and the people needed a say on it.

    I voted remain and lost. Despite that, the referendum was the right thing. Why? If we hadn't had one, then the UK in five or ten years would be a much more split and divisive place than it is now.
    It's hard to think of a worse split than 50/50 plus or minus a couple of percent.
    You must admit that Cameron must view it as a misjudgement at the very least.
    It'd be interesting to hear his view. He'll be pi**ed off that he lost it. That might be offset slightly by the fact the Conservative party is resurgent, and accentuated by May's watering down of *his* form of government.

    But whether he thinks calling the referendum itself was a misjudgement is a different matter. It was needed (and I was a slightly hesitant remain voter).
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Paging Scrapheap.

    Spurs are playing today and so are the England cricket team.

    You know what that means!

    Sub optimal
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Silly cow - although @Cyclefree put it much more eloquently up thread.

    Good to see Corbyn's starting to lose the North London Luvvies anyway.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:

    @jessicaelgot: Lib Dem source says Tories in the lead for the West Midlands mayoralty. Their intel is usually good.

    Apart from last night and Swansea

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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Tees Valley Mayor is Conservative
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 904
    Sandpit said:

    Silly cow - although @Cyclefree put it much more eloquently up thread.

    Good to see Corbyn's starting to lose the North London Luvvies anyway.

    Whats the difference between a sports bra and Jeremy Corbyn? One supports tits and the other is supported by......

    I'll get my coat.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    edited May 2017
    Re the IRA. What planet does NPxMP live on?

    Of course it's preferable to (more or less) have peace in Northern Ireland but to imply people have forgotten what atrocities they committed is nonsense.

    I have someone who works in my team whose father was in the Army, and growing up in Germany they had to check under their car every single time they used it. Evil scumbags who murdered innocents.

    Not forgotten. Sorry.

    And the juxtaposition of Corbyn's tweet about Venezuela with the latest reports from there will be going on my Facebook page on June 7th just in case there's anyone left thinking of voting Labour
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