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So far Steve Fisher's prediction on Tuesday looking pretty good https://t.co/2ELo3ROjN7
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>>Bob__Sykes Posts: 922
8:31AM
Pulpstar said:
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Blimey - that's an ominous post for Labour if ever there was one.
Mayorals will be higher turnout than the locals or not ?>>>
I'd love it not to have the Scouse failed Labour politician controlling many aspects of my day to day life (in many ways he will have more impact on me than anything Mrs May does or doesn't do), but I am resigned to him winning comfortably. I saw McDonnell on BBC1 a minute or two ago turning the focus to "let's wait and see what happens in the north west of England, that is where many key marginals are, that is where Mrs May has been focussing her campaigning" so I took that as meaning Labour think GM and Merseyside are both comfortably in the bag.
And they surely both are.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/ge-2017-v-english-constituencies/225068442/
The enormo-haddock attribute this to his piscine credentials.
Although I did see a series of vox pops the other day from people who still thought David Cameron was PM so I wouldn't want to overstate this.
https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/
CON 287 +172
LAB 75 -319
LD 82 +11
SNP 553 +129
GRN 12 -2
http://www.northumberland.gov.uk/Councillors/Vote.aspx#countydivisionelectionsthursday4may2017
Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire:
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
You may need to extend the losses column. How about Endor?
Meanwhile their fixed odds cousins appear to have shortened their odds against the Tories, where for example on the Total Seats Over/Under Market, Ladbrohes now go 393.5 seats (+5) for the Tories, 162.5 for Labour, with the Yellow Team slipping below the 20 seat mark at 19.5 seats.
Oh the simple cricket days before gender dysphoria, heart condition and malaise. I miss cricket.
She was (I think) in her fifties.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/08/23/corbyns-path-to-number-10/
A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
I'll be gutted if I missed that comedy gold.
I like the idea of using Kleidion, although that was a Roman victory, of course.
*runs away*
Severe blows for Labour in the south Wales valleys, with independents taking control of Blaenau Gwent and the result on a knife-edge in Merthyr Tydfil;
Labour losing control of Bridgend - the stronghold of first minister and Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones, which Theresa May had targeted with a campaign visit;
Better news for Labour in Doncaster, where Ros Jones was re-elected as mayor after taking more than 50% of the vote in the first round, and the Welsh councils of Newport and Neath Port Talbot, where it held on to control;
Victory for Conservative Tim Bowles over Labour’s Lesley Mansell in the run-off for the West of England metro mayoral post, covering Bristol and Bath;
A Ukip wipeout in former stronghold Lincolnshire, where Conservatives took overall control;
Conservatives replace Labour as the largest party in Cumbria;
Tories took a clean sweep in the bellwether town of Harlow - visited by Jeremy Corbyn the week before the vote - on their way to retaining control in Essex;
Tories gain control in Warwickshire as Labour’s representation collapses from 22 to 10;
Conservative leader of Somerset defeated by Liberal Democrat former MP Tessa Munt, though Tories retained control of the council;
Boost for Lib Dems in Hampshire, where ex-MP Mike Thornton in Eastleigh secured one of three gains from Ukip.
Worse still - I expect that where Labour DO pick up a sizeable UKIP vote, it will be in their 'solid' seats, not the marginals.
And we are about to see another Scottish-style realignment in the next few hours : Nationalists V Unionists - with Labour stick in the middle.
Oi. Star Wars day is over.
*drags RobD back*
Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.
The most striking and dubious consequence of simply projecting change in the Westminster polls on the local election first-preference vote share is the application of 25 point drop to the Labour vote, bringing it down to just 6%, below that of the Liberal Democrats. Take that with a big pinch of salt!
Still, the projection at least raises important questions as to how far Labour can fall and how changes in the polls relate to changes in local election voting. Probably the local popularity of some incumbent Labour councillors will help limit the damage. What seems in little doubt is that Labour are set to lose substantial numbers of votes and seats.
http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Endor
I might be a Tory voter, but I'd like an second option if needed, and no-one is close to providing it at the moment.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860399853041594369
Devolution will kill Scottish
NationalismLabour stone deadNever mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
I wouldn't rank the Third Punic War highly, actually. It was a superpower versus a city-state, and the Romans took three or four years to win. It was easily their least impressive war victory over the Carthaginians.
It's also worth noting the original list had Cannae, at -70 seats, as the worst result. Then the terrible polls for Labour came out and others suggested a few more.
Now it's being suggested, badger-style, that the goalposts need to be moved again, once more in a bad way for Labour.
Alas, I only really got into history after I was already at university...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/08/in-the-local-by-elections-since-last-may-the-parties-supported-mostly-by-remainers-have-performed-best/
My most memorable bowling spell
3-0-65-6 (42 wides)
Off the six wickets two were stumped off wides whilst the others were all caught on the boundary.
One of my deliveries need cleaned out the square leg umpire.
Labour and Tory are both coalitions, and the Tory one is getting a lot bigger as right wing voters move from UKIP and moderates who may previously have voted Labour or LD move across too. I am not sure whether that is something that can survive the Brexit process. It does all depend on what happens in the centre left. If Labour comes to its senses and moves back to the centre, a bad Brexit could see some sharp movements back quite rapidly. If Labour doesn't - and there has to be a significant chance of that - then the party is bound to split, so gifting the Tories power for a much longer period.
@rafaelbehr: More candid about results than John McDonnell. When Neil Hamilton is beating you on honesty it's time to take a good hard look at yourself.
@bbcnickrobinson: "This election is about the collapse of your party, isn't it?"
Neil Hamilton: "Yes."
You should have told me about your daughter studying classical civilisation, I would have loved to share my knowledge on it with her.