Is it possible that open warfare will develop between all those MP's whose political careers are in serious jeopardy and Corbyn and his clique.
Steven Kinnock swerving from Corbyn and saying it is about a the national interest. How on earth are labour MP's going to defend Corbyn in the media over the next five weeks
In the 2015 locals, on the same day as the GE, the average Labour performance against the Tories was one per cent better (NEV) in the locals than the nationals
Both major parties' NEV was lower than the GE vote - because independents and LibDems do significantly better in local elections - but the key point is that Labour does slightly better against the Tories in a council election than a general election.
In the 2015 locals, on the same day as the GE, the average Labour performance against the Tories was one per cent better (NEV) in the locals than the nationals
Both major parties' NEV was lower than the GE vote - because independents and LibDems do significantly better in local elections - but the key point is that Labour does slightly better against the Tories in a council election than a general election.
I think that underestimates it. People don't like voting for two parties in the same polling booth; they have five weeks between them now.
As someone who has scored cricket matches, let me assure you that nothing troubles the scorers like a flurry of wickets.
It really does not surprise me that we have multiple people here who have scored cricket matches
I have as well and been paid for it, but only because I was umpiring an Under 12 b school team or similar and didn't trust any of them with the score book.
Is it possible that open warfare will develop between all those MP's whose political careers are in serious jeopardy and Corbyn and his clique.
Steven Kinnock swerving from Corbyn and saying it is about a the national interest. How on earth are labour MP's going to defend Corbyn in the media over the next five weeks
Steve shouldn't worry, he can always follow Father and become EU Commissioner for.... Oh hang on. Well there's always the Tate Modern gig - I believe the V&A is already taken.
There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.
UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.
Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.
A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?
The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.
If Labour go down to 150 seats or so, or even fewer, the Tories might have a clear run til the 2030s anyway.
I had an interesting drink with a left leaning poet friend last night. We decided that Corbyn is a kind of oracular, shamanic figure for some young voters. He's a cultic leader with a religious halo, who fulfils the spiritual hunger in godless youngsters. This is why he can say or do anything and all his flaws are explained away. He's Jim Jones. He's Brigham Young. He's guiding Labour to Salt Lake City.
Fantastic Brigham Young reference. LOL.
Fred Phelps was a modern-day Brigham Young. Looked a bit like Corbyn too.
Do they serve powdered soft drinks at the Momentum meetings?
In the 2015 locals, on the same day as the GE, the average Labour performance against the Tories was one per cent better (NEV) in the locals than the nationals
Both major parties' NEV was lower than the GE vote - because independents and LibDems do significantly better in local elections - but the key point is that Labour does slightly better against the Tories in a council election than a general election.
I think that underestimates it. People don't like voting for two parties in the same polling booth; they have five weeks between them now.
You're right about the five weeks. But whereas I too used to think co-elections made people less likely to split their votes, having won my ward twice in such circumstances when we came third in the national election on the same day in the same ballot boxes, I don't believe this any more. Indeed there is an argument that still being able to support their 'usual party' on the national ballot paper makes people more relaxed about voting differently for their local councillor.
CON 287 +172 LAB 75 -319 LD 82 +11 SNP 553 +129 GRN 12 -2
Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
6%
Jeezo
It isn't credible.
I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
Wonder how many councils SCON will have outright control of out of 32?
It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.
As someone who has scored cricket matches, let me assure you that nothing troubles the scorers like a flurry of wickets.
It really does not surprise me that we have multiple people here who have scored cricket matches
I have as well and been paid for it, but only because I was umpiring an Under 12 b school team or similar and didn't trust any of them with the score book.
I did it for a couple of years for the school 'B' team as a fellow pupil. The key is concentration. (The 1970s red scorebooks were probably much less sophisticated than the ones currently in use)
Mr. Herdson, that's a war rather than a shorter incident (I know you might argue the Fourth Crusade was too, but that would be to define a particularly bad, potentially terminal, result).
I wouldn't rank the Third Punic War highly, actually. It was a superpower versus a city-state, and the Romans took three or four years to win. It was easily their least impressive war victory over the Carthaginians.
It's also worth noting the original list had Cannae, at -70 seats, as the worst result. Then the terrible polls for Labour came out and others suggested a few more.
Now it's being suggested, badger-style, that the goalposts need to be moved again, once more in a bad way for Labour.
Yes, I accept that. But then there comes a stage where a single battle - or the consequences of a lost battle - are so utterly terminal that the battle defines the war.
In terms of martial prowess, I agree that the Romans didn't do a particularly stellar job but that wasn't my point. The point was that the result wasn't just 'potentially terminal', in your phrase, but literally absolutely and utterly terminal. As a war of annihilation, I don't think it has an equal.
The conquest of the Americas, perhaps ?
A better analogy might be Towton. The Lancastrian forces roundly massacred, and the Yorkist monarchy firmly entrenched - but scarcely a couple of decades later, Bosworth.
it's not as though the left of centre is going to disappear.
CON 287 +172 LAB 75 -319 LD 82 +11 SNP 553 +129 GRN 12 -2
Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
6%
Jeezo
It isn't credible.
I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
No, the objections are more fundamental than that.
Is it possible that open warfare will develop between all those MP's whose political careers are in serious jeopardy and Corbyn and his clique.
Steven Kinnock swerving from Corbyn and saying it is about a the national interest. How on earth are labour MP's going to defend Corbyn in the media over the next five weeks
What a conundrum they face: vote for me and get Corbyn.
Looks like Kinnock is trying to move to a post Corbyn landscape already.
*Cough*
*** BETTING POST ***
haven't had one of those for a while...
Still following the suggestion from PfP about looking at potential Labour leadership contenders who have majorities greater than 10,000 and therefore might still be in contention
Starting at 10,000, one of the first names on the list is Catherine McKinnell who I personally think would be an excellent choice, but is probably disqualified on account of being the wrong sex for a Labour leader.
A few rows below that though, we come to a name that seems almost destined.
A leader who can clean up the mess and dispel the loony left from the party forever.
The biggest challenge the Tories will have is that there are still four weeks to go, and today's headlines are clearly signalling already that Labour cannot win. At the very least, their manifesto will come under intense scrutiny.
Only if the EU can maintain diplomatic silence for a few weeks.
A period of Brexit silence from them and the pro-Remain, pro-left press would probably be more dangerous for the Tories than it featuring prominently in the news every day.
Plenty of people warned idiots like her that Corbyn was bad news. And they were roundly poo-poohed. So tough shit for morons like her who waste newsprint parading their empty-headed self-righteousness and presumed - and unjustified - self-claimed moral superiority over the rest of us.
Perhaps if people like her had actually bothered to look into what Corbyn said and believed over the years and compared it to the values she claims to believe in, Labour might not now be in such a mess. I have very little sympathy for self-indulgent nitwits like her.
For those who - like SO - would like a decent social democratic/left of centre party to vote for, rather more so. Rather a lot in fact. We all lose out by not having a viable opposition party.
I hope the revenge - when it comes - on the Corbynites and their fellow travellers is so savage that they slink off into the darkest recesses where far left groupuscules are usually found, never to be heard of again.
Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
What's he done now
He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, because English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
What's he done now
He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
Our country's influence may go down the pan but I suspect he'll find that our language will be fine (insofar as that is what the Americans actually speak)
Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
What's he done now
He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
I can see the time coming when Theresa May halts all talks until he is removed from the process
CON 287 +172 LAB 75 -319 LD 82 +11 SNP 553 +129 GRN 12 -2
Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
6%
Jeezo
It isn't credible.
I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
No, the objections are more fundamental than that.
But, but, but Tessy has spoken!
In any case any objections you might have aren't really in the running.
another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
What's he done now
He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
Also complete bollocks, of course. The overwhelming dominance of English as a second language - and as a first global language in social media, business, travel, science, the Net - means it HAS to be the EU's working language. Indeed the departure of the UK might make that easier for the French to bear, emotionally.
Also the language in which many courses at the best European universities are taught.
I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.
Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.
West Ham have no one fit in their front line (waiting on Carroll) - story of the season.
The Tories won west of england mayor. Was that expected given that takes in cities like bristol and bath?
The most shocking thing about that was the Lib Dems finishing third.
Curtice says on this (hat-tip Guardian):
A pretty bad night for Labour, with just a couple of glimmers of hope: hanging on to Cardiff, which we weren’t necessarily expecting, actually hanging on to Newport too, which was quite a good result, and also running the Conservatives much closer in the West of England mayoral election than we might have anticipated.
Current swing to Tories since 2013 is about 8%, consisting of Lab -3, Con +13. That fits with what some of us were saying from the doorstep - Labour vote more or less holding up, Cons eating UKIP. Incidentally, I met extremely few voters (two, during 11 hours of knockup, IIRC) who said they planned to vote differently at the GE, so whatever the outcome today, it's probably fair to treat it as a good poll of the same areas in the GE. There will be local variations, but so there are at GEs.
But let's all await today's results before celebrating/mourning.
Plenty of people warned idiots like her that Corbyn was bad news. And they were roundly poo-poohed. So tough shit for morons like her who waste newsprint parading their empty-headed self-righteousness and presumed - and unjustified - self-claimed moral superiority over the rest of us.
Perhaps if people like her had actually bothered to look into what Corbyn said and believed over the years and compared it to the values she claims to believe in, Labour might not now be in such a mess. I have very little sympathy for self-indulgent nitwits like her.
For those who - like SO - would like a decent social democratic/left of centre party to vote for, rather more so. Rather a lot in fact. We all lose out by not having a viable opposition party.
I hope the revenge - when it comes - on the Corbynites and their fellow travellers is so savage that they slink off into the darkest recesses where far left groupuscules are usually found, never to be heard of again.
Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
What's he done now
He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
Our country's influence may go down the pan but I suspect he'll find that our language will be fine (insofar as that is what the Americans think they actually speak)
another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.
God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.
LOL
But Tories, the Tories, Westminster, the Tories, THE TORIES is how you run a country...
You've got your finger on the fluttering pulse of the SConosphere, doncha? Surely you must have some examples of vibrant policies that SCon led councils would be enacting? Perhaps they'd follow the courageous example of S.Ayrshire council over the named child scheme for example?
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
Am I right in thinking the Conservatives are picking up seats from everyone but votes almost entirely from UKIP, with a smallish gain from Labour, compared with the previous election?
If so, Corbyn isn't THE problem for Labour, although he clearly doesn't improve their chances.
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
Was that intended to be helpful?
Probably about as helpful as TSE sharing his knowledge of 'classical civilization'!
I've learnt a lot about historical battles on this website. (Or at least their names and results).
It was a joke. I'm sure TSE's knowledge of classical civilization goes well beyond mine which ends with the remake of 'SHE'!
another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.
God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
I was asked to score after I got moved down the batting order from No 12, but I never took to it. There was this chap in a hat in the middle of the field who kept waving his arms about and distracting me.
I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.
Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.
West Ham have no one fit in their front line (waiting on Carroll) - story of the season.
That's good news.
Don't get me wrong Spurs are far better all over the pitch but I'm scarred by previous experiences.
My county (West Sussex) are publishing results via an updating pdf file. What is this 1994?
aarrgghh!!
All councils should have a page like Northumberland's. It just showed a list of declared results on chronological order. Super simple. None of this crap click on 57 wards on a map to get the results.
another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.
God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
we used to play in an evening cricket league where we had 8-ball overs to reduce time wasted changing ends to make maximum use of the light. a couple of no balls in an over there and things got very messy.
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
Am I right in thinking the Conservatives are picking up seats from everyone but votes almost entirely from UKIP, with a smallish gain from Labour, compared with the previous election?
If so, Corbyn isn't THE problem for Labour, although he clearly doesn't improve their chances.
If the Lib Dems are not picking up seats and the Greens are not scooping them up while Labour are falling back, then it's a problem of the left in it's entirety - soft, hard and mushy middle.
CON 287 +172 LAB 75 -319 LD 82 +11 SNP 553 +129 GRN 12 -2
Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
6%
Jeezo
It isn't credible.
I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
No, the objections are more fundamental than that.
But, but, but Tessy has spoken!
In any case any objections you might have aren't really in the running.
No, here's the fundamental objection:
(1) The Scottish Parliament does not have the legal power to call a referendum (2) The UK Parliament will only grant a referendum pursuant to an agreement between the UK and Scottish governments (3) To get an agreement, the Scottish government will have to break the existing agreement (4) Yeah, good luck with that.
It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.
LOL
But Tories, the Tories, Westminster, the Tories, THE TORIES is how you run a country...
You've got your finger on the fluttering pulse of the SConosphere, doncha? Surely you must have some examples of vibrant policies that SCon led councils would be enacting? Perhaps they'd follow the courageous example of S.Ayrshire council over the named child scheme for example?
Panic stations as suddenly the day job is oh so important for our Nat day dreamers.
Comments
Steven Kinnock swerving from Corbyn and saying it is about a the national interest. How on earth are labour MP's going to defend Corbyn in the media over the next five weeks
There's nothing intrinsically wrong with parties trying to win votes from other parties, but Corbyn's Labour don't seem to understand that...
Both major parties' NEV was lower than the GE vote - because independents and LibDems do significantly better in local elections - but the key point is that Labour does slightly better against the Tories in a council election than a general election.
https://twitter.com/BBCFHewison/status/860414616425439232
Labour sources say benchmark is share of vote in 2015, not 2013 - not how Curtice would see it, 2013 is more accurate as comparison
Corbynistas taking that well......
.
I'll get me coat.
So LibDems won a seat from the Conservatives in Northumberland by drawing a short straw.
@justin124 will be pleased.
A better analogy might be Towton. The Lancastrian forces roundly massacred, and the Yorkist monarchy firmly entrenched - but scarcely a couple of decades later, Bosworth.
it's not as though the left of centre is going to disappear.
Serves them right.
Unsurprising, but still amusing.
*** BETTING POST ***
haven't had one of those for a while...
Still following the suggestion from PfP about looking at potential Labour leadership contenders who have majorities greater than 10,000 and therefore might still be in contention
looking at this spreadsheet
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/mps-maj.htm
Starting at 10,000, one of the first names on the list is Catherine McKinnell who I personally think would be an excellent choice, but is probably disqualified on account of being the wrong sex for a Labour leader.
A few rows below that though, we come to a name that seems almost destined.
A leader who can clean up the mess and dispel the loony left from the party forever.
I give you, Stephen Kinnock
@ 33/1 with the magic sign
I'm on.
A period of Brexit silence from them and the pro-Remain, pro-left press would probably be more dangerous for the Tories than it featuring prominently in the news every day.
Perhaps if people like her had actually bothered to look into what Corbyn said and believed over the years and compared it to the values she claims to believe in, Labour might not now be in such a mess. I have very little sympathy for self-indulgent nitwits like her.
For those who - like SO - would like a decent social democratic/left of centre party to vote for, rather more so. Rather a lot in fact. We all lose out by not having a viable opposition party.
I hope the revenge - when it comes - on the Corbynites and their fellow travellers is so savage that they slink off into the darkest recesses where far left groupuscules are usually found, never to be heard of again.
But Tories, the Tories, Westminster, the Tories, THE TORIES is how you run a country...
https://twitter.com/rusty123b/status/860388133048864768
Everything going well for the "Progressive Alliance" then?
But, but, but Tessy has spoken!
In any case any objections you might have aren't really in the running.
A pretty bad night for Labour, with just a couple of glimmers of hope: hanging on to Cardiff, which we weren’t necessarily expecting, actually hanging on to Newport too, which was quite a good result, and also running the Conservatives much closer in the West of England mayoral election than we might have anticipated.
Current swing to Tories since 2013 is about 8%, consisting of Lab -3, Con +13. That fits with what some of us were saying from the doorstep - Labour vote more or less holding up, Cons eating UKIP. Incidentally, I met extremely few voters (two, during 11 hours of knockup, IIRC) who said they planned to vote differently at the GE, so whatever the outcome today, it's probably fair to treat it as a good poll of the same areas in the GE. There will be local variations, but so there are at GEs.
But let's all await today's results before celebrating/mourning.
Juncker being a daft sod is not very surprising, alas.
God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
If so, Corbyn isn't THE problem for Labour, although he clearly doesn't improve their chances.
aarrgghh!!
Don't get me wrong Spurs are far better all over the pitch but I'm scarred by previous experiences.
The only way to record electoral results is bronze stele.
https://twitter.com/EyjarSkeggi/status/860412649477156864
The other 2 elected in the ward are independents I think.
(1) The Scottish Parliament does not have the legal power to call a referendum
(2) The UK Parliament will only grant a referendum pursuant to an agreement between the UK and Scottish governments
(3) To get an agreement, the Scottish government will have to break the existing agreement
(4) Yeah, good luck with that.